Olathe Growth Projections November 2005
City of Olathe Five-Year Growth Forecast 2007 Budget Process Current Conditions The City of Olathe continues to enjoy a relatively consistent rate of annual population growth. The City’s annual population growth remains at approximately three to five percent. This growth rate translates into a population increase of 3,000 to 3,500 persons per year. This population growth can be attributed to the continued construction of residential units within the City of Olathe. The number of new single-family homes annually built in the City ranges between 1,000 and 1,200. However, for 2003 and 2004 the number of homes built began to decrease. The projections for 2005 show that the number of single-family home permits issued for this year will likely be the lowest number since 1997 when 968 permits were issued. There are a number of factors contributing to the decreasing number of single-family permits being issued. The increase in the development of single-family homes in the City of Gardner has likely negatively impacted the number of starts of new homes in Olathe. Additional factors are increasing interest rates and the general “softening” of the housing market. An important component to the growth in the number of single-family homes built in the City of Olathe is the availability of residential lots with all the necessary infrastructure improvements in place. While the City is not experiencing a shortage of buildable lots, there is not on overabundance of residential lots. Within the next five years a number of new areas to the south and west of the City will be opened to residential development. The Census Bureau’s latest population estimate for the City of Olathe, as of July 2004, is 108,390. The Planning Department’s population estimate for the City, as of July 2005, is 115,196. Planning’s population estimate is based upon the number of living units that have been added to the City. The number of living units added to the City’s housing inventory has fluctuated over the past five years. On average, the City’s housing stock has been increasing yearly by 1,100 approximately units. Future Conditions The growth of a community is based on a number of factors including the availability of land, infrastructure, school system, growing local/national economies, as well as the continued support of growth by elected and appointed officials. The majority of these factors have been positive for the City of Olathe and is reflected in the City’s continued growth. There are a number of new areas to the south and west of the City of Olathe that are being opened to new development. As these new residential development areas come online, there will likely be a gradual increase in the number of residential units constructed within the City. Assuming there is an increase in the number of new residential lots and
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Olathe Growth Projections November 2005
that all other factors remain the same, the City of Olathe should continue to experience an annual growth in both population and housing units for the next five years. The following table details the projected population growth for the City of Olathe for 20072011. Table 1 – Population Projections Year Population Projections 2007 122,000 2008 126,000 2009 130,000 2010 134,000 2011 140,000 New housing starts will continue to occur in areas that are currently experiencing growth. These areas are Areas 2, 4, 7, and 10 as shown on the attached map (see page 4). However, over this same time period there will begin a shift in the major areas of residential growth. Over the past five years, Areas 2, 9, and 10 have experienced a large increase in the number of new residential units. As these areas have developed the amount of developable land in these areas has decreased. The attached map and table reflects this decrease in developable land by showing a reduction in the number of new units built in these areas. As Areas 2, 9, and 10 develop, new construction of single-family homes will shift to Areas 3, 4, 5, and 7. Due to infrastructure that is already in place, the growth in Areas 3, 4, and 5 is expected to exceed that in Area 7 for the near term. But as infrastructure improvements are made in Coffee Creek, which is in Area 7, residential growth in this area will begin to increase. Annexation of new property will continue at a reduced pace when compared to 2005. There were a number of large annexations that occurred in 2005 that can be directly attributed to Coffee Creek. The City also annexed a significant amount of property west of Lakeshore Drive. It is likely that the City will annex less acreage in 2006 than was annexed in 2005. Summary Assuming that the City continues to support policies and ordinances that encourage residential growth for the next five years, the City of Olathe will enjoy steady growth in both population and the construction of new housing. The majority of this growth will occur in the Woodland Road Corridor, the 119th Street and Clare Road area, and the southeastern area of the City. However, there will begin to be a shift in population growth and residential construction from these areas to areas west of Hedge Lane and the Coffee Creek Area. Additionally, it is unlikely that there will be any large annexations during 2006.
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Olathe Growth Projections November 2005
Table 2 – New Housing Units Projections Detached Attached Single-family and Multiunits family units 2007 1,000 200 2008 1,100 400 2009 1,100 500 2010 1,100 400 2011 1,100 500 TOTALS 5,400 2,000
Population Increase 3,300 4,000 4,200 4,200 4,300 20,000
The accompanying map divides the City into ten areas (1-10) and displays the expected growth across the City, breaking out single-family detached from single-family attached and multi-family. This dispersal is based on the City’s lot inventory, location of new preliminary plats, land anticipated to receive sanitary sewer service, undeveloped property and historic trends. These forecasts are based primarily on past growth rates of the City. If Olathe would enact new regulations and/or raise development fees that are significantly different from its neighboring cities of Lenexa, Shawnee, Overland Park and Gardner, the accuracy of these forecasts would decrease. Table 3 - Yearly Growth for Olathe, Kansas U.S. Census Bureau Estimate Growth Rate 1990 63,832 1991 66,218 3.7% 1992 68,402 3.3% 1993 70,531 3.1% 1994 72,906 3.4% 1995 76,672 5.2% 1996 79,497 3.7% 1997 82,174 3.4% 1998 85,141 3.6% 1999 88,192 3.6% 2000 93,821 6.3% 2001 96,315 2.6% 2002 101,329 5.2% 2003 105,274 4.0% 2004 108,390 3.0% 2005 Olathe Development Services Estimate Growth Rate 63,440 65,922 3.9% 67,703 2.7% 69,330 2.4% 71,531 3.2% 74,167 3.7% 77,401 4.4% 80,371 3.8% 83,466 3.9% 87,311 4.6% 94,147 7.8% 99,688 5.9% 104,352 4.7% 108,531 4.8% 112,004 2.4% 115,196 2.8%
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Olathe Growth Projections November 2005
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