Winton Wood City Schools
Five Year Forecast
October 2007 (May 2008 Update)
1.) Real Estate – Real Estate is based on the most current tax duplicate
information received from the Hamilton County Auditor. Hamilton County
completed its reappraisal effective January 1st 2006. The latest reappraisal
data is included in this projection. Delinquencies collected were up for the
current year and our PUPP values experienced a decline. Due to HB 920,
passed in 1976, we do not receive additional revenue on voted millage.
2.) Tangible Personal Property Tax – HB 66 phases out completely tangible
personal property tax. The District had a tangible personal property tax base
of $30 million before the phase out began. Tangible property includes
business equipment, inventories, and fixtures. The state will phase this tax
base out over the next four years. The District will be held harmless through
2010. After 2010 the reimbursement will be reduced annually and eventually
phase out to zero.
3.) Unrestricted Grants in Aid has been forecasted based on the latest SF3
information, simulations, and anticipated enrollment decline. HB66 has
phased out the SF-3 CODBF. In FY05 it was 7.5% in FY06 5.0%, FY07
2.5%, and FY08-FY12 0%. The District is on the state guarantee and will not
receive additional state funding until it falls off the guarantee. A decrease
was forecasted for FY08-FY11 based on the latest State budget and a shift of
Poverty Based Assistance funds from unrestricted to restricted funds. As a
result of the latest State budget, the District no longer qualifies for parity aid,
which amounted to almost $750,000 for FY07. This along with the CODBF
final phase out caused the District to fall further onto the guarantee.
4.) Restricted Grants in Aid were updated based on state estimates for Poverty
Based Assistance, Career Education and other restricted funding.
5.) Property Tax Allocation is estimated based on projected Real Estate
collections. This is the reimbursement received from the State for homestead
and rollback. Due to House Bill 66, the 10 % rollback for commercial and
industrial will no longer be reimbursed by the state. This amount will be
shifted back to the business taxpayers. Based on new Auditor of State
coding, state reimbursement or hold harmless payments will all fall under this
revenue category. The utility deregulation payments eligibility is calculated
each year. For the FY08-FY12 it is assumed we will continue to be eligible
and receive the deregulation payments. Also, the $10,000 exemption phase
out for tangible taxpayers has been accelerated and will end in FY09. The
hold harmless for the Tangible Personal Property Tax payments will also be
received in this category.
6.) All other revenue, e.g. interest income, fees, tuition, and other, is based upon
historical patterns. Interest income will decline dramatically based on the
Fed’s continued reduction of the federal funds interest rate which took place
1.) Salaries were estimated based on current negotiated agreements for FY08-
FY09 and staffing projections. For years FY10 and beyond, the district has
projected increases based on past trends.
2.) Benefits (retirement, medicare, workers comp) were estimated based on
salaries projected. Health care was projected based on staffing and our
current increase in FY08 and 10% increases for FY09-FY12. Dental
increases are projected at 5% for FY09- FY12. Adjustments were made to all
health care and dental plans in order to minimize the rate increase. This was
necessary based on the FY07 claims experience of the District. Current and
future health care trends may require for a higher increase.
3.) Purchased Services, Supplies, and Other expenditures were based on
projected need. Starting in FY06, community school tuition was charged to a
purchased service line item as opposed to a reduction of state revenue.
Therefore in FY06 there is a spike in Unrestricted Grants-in-Aid (line 1.035)
and a spike in Purchased Services (line 3.03) Based on the state data,
community school expenditures are expected to increase by $190,000 from
FY07 to FY08. This increase will also affect FY09-FY12. Out of District
placements, fuel, and the increased cost of supplies resulted in additional
spending in these categories over the previous year.
4.) Presently, the district does not have any General Fund notes outstanding. The
energy conservation notes matured on 12/1/03 and are paid in full.
5.) Reserve Assumptions – the District spends at levels that do not require setting
aside additional revenue in regards to capital improvements and textbooks.
Also SB345 eliminated this requirement.
1.) New revenue assumptions. Based on this forecast, a levy is necessary in the
2008 calendar year for collection in fiscal year 2009.
2.)Reduction in Expenditures. This forecast does include reductions in
expenditures due to reconfiguration savings and other cost reductions starting in
the FY08 school year as well as additional reductions slated for the FY09 school
year. The District is currently analyzing these and other reductions and will
update the forecast as necessary.
Please note that any significant changes to these assumptions may cause significant
changes to this forecast.