Forecast by kimbrozic

VIEWS: 12 PAGES: 5

									FORECAST
                  1977    1978    1979    1980    1981

NB Forecast        255      730     970    1200    1402
NB Mark. Forec    6471    10429   13857   17143   20029

Serious Runners    0.15   0.175   0.225   0.275   0.325 Woman %
Total Market      2000     2782    3998    5769    8365
Men Runners       1700     2295    3098    4183    5647
Women Runners       300     487     899    1587    2719

Serious pairs             6955     9994   14423   20913
Total Market         0    9935    14278   20604   29876
            Cost and Profit Structure for Exhibit 2.

Shares of Direct Cost
Total Sales             4658308
Total Direct Cost           2.85 % of Costs % of Sales
Materials                   1.35        0.47     0.256
Labor                       0.81        0.28     0.154
Manufacturing OH             0.7        0.25     0.133

Total Unit Sales for 1977             291140

Per Pair Analysis

Avg. Revenue/Unit                          16

Costs
Materials                                4.10
Labor                                    2.46
OH                                       2.13
SA              0.297                    4.76

Total Cost                              13.44
Profit Before Tax                        2.56
Tax Rate                                0.355
Profit After Tax                         1.65
Comparison over 4 year Horizon
         Discount Rate =              0.2
                                                 18       19.5       21.5        23 Price
          Pairs/Day % Profit   Initial         1978      1979       1980       1981 Year
Lawrence        3000      0.11     100000   1515677   1641984    1810392    1936699
Texas           3000      0.13     100000   1711553   1854183    2044355    2186985
Ireland         2750      0.18     306000   2421469   2623258    2892310    3094099
2nd Shift       1650      0.10          0   1321898   1432056    1578933    1689092

Based On Forecast                          730000      970000    1200000    1402000
Current Capacity        412500 Need        317500      557500     787500     989500
          Days in Year Necessary to Reach Demand
Lawrence                                      106         186        263        330
Texas                                         106         186        263        330
Ireland                                       115         203        286        360
2nd Shift                                     192         338        477        600

Profits for Each given Forecast

Lawrence                          100000 641636.8     1220541    1900912    2555151
Texas                             100000 724557.5     1378276    2146573    2885362
Ireland                           306000 1025089      1949955    3036926    4082148
2nd Shift                              0 559603.4     1064495    1657880    2228475
NPV
$4,284,990.98
$4,851,677.18
$6,699,527.39
$3,824,368.96




$3,614,590.03
$4,094,638.20
$5,628,484.77
$3,239,678.92
1978 Analysis
                        2nd Shift Lawrence Texas      Ireland
Average Revenue                 18       18        18         18
Materials       0.256        4.61      4.61      4.72       4.77
Labor           0.154        3.07      2.52      2.21       2.26
OH              0.133        2.24      2.39      2.45       2.39
COGS                         9.92      9.52      9.39       9.42
SA               0.30        5.35      5.35      5.35       5.35
PBT                          2.73      3.13      3.26       3.23
Tax Rate                    0.355     0.355       0.3          0
PAT                          1.76      2.02      2.28       3.23
% of Sales                   0.10      0.11      0.13       0.18

								
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