• Virtually no one expects real GDP to fall in either the United States or the Euro area this
year. The recession is thought to be over--although estimates of the strength of the
recovery-to-be vary widely.
• Virtually no one expects any inflation: consumer price indexes are predicted to rise at
1.5 percent per year in 2002, and because of falling computer prices broad indexes of
price change are expected to grow even more slowly.
• Japan, however, continues its decade-long economic stagnation, with the average
forecast being a fall in GDP of one percent this year.