2008 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast
2008 Summary
Methodology / Realization Factor
Trends – Mass / Transponders Operator Assessment
Macro Economics
Summary
May 2008 Chris Kunstadter Gwynne Shotwell COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group
chris.kunstadter@xlgroup.com gwynne@spacex.com
Cover art by John Sloan/FAA
2008 GSO Summary
Average 21.8
Average 16.2
2008-2017 commercial GSO satellite and launch demand forecast increased by 1 from 2007
COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2008 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/16/2008 2
Report History
• Commercial GSO launch demand forecast
Updated annually since 1993 Methodology has been consistent over time, with ongoing
enhancements to reflect industry evolution
• Update this year - smallest mass class was < 2,200 kg, now < 2,500 kg
10-year forecast horizon (2008-2017)
• 2008 report updates
Realization factor
Growth in satellite mass and transponders per satellite Industry developments that may affect demand Respondents’ views on factors affecting demand
COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2008 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
5/16/2008
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Working Group Participation
Gwynne Shotwell
(2008 GSO Forecast Chair)
SpaceX Lockheed Martin Aerospace Corp.
FAA AST
Beth King
(2007 GSO Forecast Chair)
Dr. Alexander Liang
(T&IWG Chair)
John Sloan
Darren Chambo
Lisa Hague Doug Howe / Josef Lore
Lockheed Martin
Aerospace Corp. Boeing
Veronica Johnson / Greg Caudel
David Keslow Chris Kunstadter Joanna Malvino / Bill Hayes / Kathy Shockey / Tom Monroe Jennifer Miceli
ULA
Orbital XL Insurance
SS/L
Tecolote Research / USAF / SMC / MV
Chris O’Connell Chris Sanders
COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2008 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
Sea Launch P&W Rocketdyne
5/16/2008
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Forecast Data Request
• Ten-year GSO satellite launch demand requested from 92 organizations worldwide
• 29 inputs received (versus 22 last year)
Comprehensive
• 6 US and 3 international satellite manufacturers / launch service providers (same as 2007)
Individual
• 20 demand inputs from satellite operators (increased from 13 last year)
• Questionnaire on factors affecting market demand
18 satellite operators responded to questions on how various
factors affected their plans to procure new satellites • Up from 12 respondents in 2007
COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2008 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/16/2008 5
Forecast Methodology
• Near-term (2008-2010) mission model
“Bottoms-up” by identified satellite Timing and likelihood of launches assessed
• Long-term (2011-2017) demand forecast
Average of comprehensive domestic forecasts by mass
categories
International input used as a cross check
• Only “addressable” commercial GSO satellites
Defined as those open for internationally competitive launch
service procurement
2008 addressable launches includes the first Long March
launch (Palapa D) defined as addressable since 1997
COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2008 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
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Satellite and Launch Demand Forecast
Large increase in near-term demand from the 2007 forecast
COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2008 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/16/2008 7
Historical Forecast Comparison
2008 near-term forecast higher than 4 of 5 most recent forecasts
COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2008 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 8
5/16/2008
Satellite Launch “Realization” vs. Demand
• The GSO forecast projects demand for satellite launches
• Several factors can affect the execution of a scheduled launch in a given year
Satellite issues Launch vehicle issues
Manifesting & scheduling issues
Funding Weather
Regulatory delays
• A “realization factor” is based on an analysis of historical forecast vs. actual satellite launches for the first and second year of the forecast
No change in this methodology from last year
2007 actuals fell within realization range
COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2008 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/16/2008 9
2007 Actual Satellites vs. Forecasted Demand
Reason for delay
Launch vehicle
• Thor 5, AMC 14 and Thuraya 3
Planned
23 (3) (1) (1)
Actual
18
Satellite / launch vehicle
• ICO-GEO 1
Satellite
• Star One C2
78% actual vs. forecast Realization factor predicted 15-19 launches
COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2008 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/16/2008 10
Forecast With Realization
Since implementation of the realization factor, actual number of satellites launched has fallen within adjusted band
COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2008 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/16/2008 11
Forecast By Satellite Mass Class
Forecast indicates stability in satellites to be launched in two highest mass classes Smallest satellite class increases in the near term, then decreases and stabilizes
COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2008 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/16/2008 12
Total and Average Satellite Mass Launched
Average satellite mass stabilizing at ~4,200 kg after peak of 4,500 kg in 2005
COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2008 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/16/2008 13
Spacecraft Trends: Transponders
Slight drop in average transponders launched per year An increase is expected in 2009
COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2008 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/16/2008 14
Satellite Operator Assessment
Significant Negative Impact
Regional or global economic conditions Demand for satellite services
Some Negative Impact
No Effect
Some Positive Impact
Significant Positive Impact
Compared to 2007
0% 6% 6%
33% 11% 22%
39% 28% 61%
28% 33% 11%
0% 22% 0%
Ability to compete with terrestrial services Availability of financing
Availability of affordable insurance Consolidation of service providers Increasing satellite life times Availability of satellite systems that meet your requirements
11%
0% 0%
17%
17% 6%
44%
56% 94%
22%
28% 0%
6%
0% 0%
0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 6% 6%
17% 6% 17%
11% 22% 17% 22%
5/16/2008
72% 44% 44%
50% 39% 56% 61%
11% 39% 39%
33% 39% 22% 11%
0% 11% 0%
6% 0% 0% 0%
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Reliability of satellite systems
Availability of launch vehicles that meet your requirements Reliability of launch systems Ability to obtain required export licenses Ability to obtain required operating licenses
COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2008 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
Satellite Operator Assessment
• Only two areas are more negative than in last year’s survey
Ability to compete with terrestrial services Ability to get required licensing
• Remaining are more positive than last year
Economic conditions had less negative impact (watch item for next year)
Demand for services Availability of financing
Availability of affordable insurance (watch item for next year) Availability / reliability of launch vehicles
Consolidation of service providers Increasing satellite lifetimes Availability of satellite systems to meet requirements
Reliability of satellite systems
Availability & reliability of launchers Ability to obtain required export licensing
COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2008 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/16/2008 16
Summary of Findings
• 2008 GSO demand forecast
2008-2017 average annual satellite demand of 21.8 per year (increase by 1
from 2007 forecast)
2008-2017 average annual launch demand of 16.2 per year (increase by 1
from 2007 forecast)
2008 satellite demand of 27, with a realization between 17 and 22
• More positive outlook from respondents than in 2007
Ability to compete with terrestrial services and licensing are the only areas
more negative than last year
• Growth in demand in coming years could be helped by
DARS & MSS growth Hosted payloads
New commercial launch competitors
• Economic conditions and recent launch failures may impact results in 2008-2009
COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 2008 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
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