Get documents about "PORT TRAFFIC FORECASTS
Document Sample
Report #2: Future Corridor Conditions
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study
Submitted to:
The Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study Steering Committee
October 2002
Submitted By:
Wilbur Smith Associates
Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study – Steering Committee Members
Mr. Terry Adams – PennDOT, District 8-0
Mr. Pau l Archibald – McCormick Taylor & Associates
Mr. Ronald Bailey – Lancaster County Planning Co mmission
Mr. James Blair – Reebie Associates
Mr. John Bo rk – Federal Highway Ad min istration, Pennsylvania Div ision
Mr. Gregory Brown – PennDOT, District 6-0
Mr. John Brown – PennDOT, Bureau of Rail Freight, Po rts & Waterways
Ms. Lisa Bro zey – KCI Technologies
Mr. Joseph Bryan – Reeb ie Associates
Mr. Richard Clepper – Yellow Freight System
Mr. Rick Crawford – Norfo lk Southern Corporation
Ms. Felicia Dell – York County Planning Co mmission
Mr. Carmine Fiscina – Federal Highway Administration, Philadelphia Div ision
Mr. George Hannon – Pennsylvania Turnpike Co mmission
Mr. Arno Hart – Wilbur Smith Associates
Mr. David Hunt – Wilbur Smith Associates
Mr. Pau l Ignudo, Sr. – Diamond State Po rt Co rporation
Mr. M ichael Kirkpatrick, Delaware Depart ment of Transportation
Mr. Tho mas Kotay – PennDOT, Center for Program Develop ment and Management
Mr. Pau l Lang – Federal Highway Ad ministration, Delaware Division
Mr. Steven Lu xenberg – Wilmington Area Planning Council
Mr. Ran Marshall – PennDOT, Bureau of Rail Freight, Ports & Waterways
Dr. John Martin – Mart in Associates
Mr. Ted Matley – Wilmington Area Planning Council
Mr. Dennis McGee – Federal Highway Ad ministration, FM CSA
Mr. Carl M illard III – Tri-County Regional Planning Co mmission
Mr. Christopher Neumann – Lancaster County Planning Co mmission
Mr. Rob Nuss – KCI Technologies
Mr. Herbert Packer – Office of PennPORTS
Mr. Mark Papineau – Martin Associates
Mr. Patrick Quigley – Federal Highway Ad min istration, FM CSA
Ms. Kathleen Quinn – Federal Highway Administration, HOFM
Mr. David Royer – Lancaster County Planning Co mmission
Mr. James Runk – PA Motor Truck Association
Mr. Timothy Scanlon – Pennsylvania Turnpike Co mmission
Mr. Bill Schafer – Norfolk Southern Corporat ion
Mr. Donald Shanis – Delaware Valley Regional Planning Co mmission
Mr. Daniel Smyser – PennDOT, Motor Carrier Division
Mr. Donald Siekerman – PA Motor Truck Association
Mr. To m Stettler – PennDOT, Bureau of Rail Freight, Ports & Waterways
Mr. Spencer Stevens – Federal Highway Administration, Pennsylvania Division
Mr. Jeffrey Sweeney – Martin Associates
Mr. Jim Szy mborski – Tri-County Regional Planning Co mmission
Mr. Glenn Taggart – Lancaster County Planning Co mmission
Mr. Stephen Thienel – CSX Corporation
Mr. To m Tillett – Congressman Joseph Pitts Office
Ms. Lisa Wassel – PennDOT, Center for Program Development and Managemen t
Mr. Lee Whit more – Chester County Planning Co mmission
Mr. Craig Zu mbrun – South Central Assembly for Effective Governance
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 1 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
Table of Contents
1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 3
2. Corridor Improvements ............................................................................................................................... 5
2.1 Port of Wilmington .................................................................................................................................. 5
2.2 Railroad Enhancements...................................................................................................................... 5
2.3 Wilmington Area Planning Council (WILMAPCO) ............................................................. 6
2.4 Dela ware Va lley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC) ...................................... 6
2.5 Lancaster County Transportation Coordinating Committee .................................. 8
2.6 Harrisburg Area Transportation Study (HATS) .................................................................. 9
2.7 Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission ....................................................................................... 10
2.8 Su mmary of the Corridor Enhancements ............................................................................ 11
3. Wilmington-Harrisburg Fre ight Study Forecasts ........................................................... 12
3.1 Historical Perspective ....................................................................................................................... 12
3.2 Port Freight Traffic Forecasts ..................................................................................................... 14
3.2.1 SIC2D 01 Cont ainerized and Breakbulk Fruit ............................................................................... 14
3.2.2 SIC2D 20 Juice Concentrate and Frozen Meat ........................................................................... 15
3.2.3 SIC2D 37 Autos ....................................................................................................................................... 16
3.2.4 SIC2D 24& 33 Lumber & Steel ........................................................................................................... 17
3.2.5 SIC2D 10, 14 & 32/52 Dry Bulks Including Gypsum and Drywall .......................................... 17
3.2.6 SIC2D 29 Petroleum Products ........................................................................................................... 17
3.2.7 Port-Generated Traffic Forecast Summaries ................................................................................ 18
3.3 Non-Port Freight Traffic Forecasts .......................................................................................... 18
APPENDIX – Historical Truck Traffic Growth Rates ................................................................ 25
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 2 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
1. 1. Introduction
This is the second of three reports for the Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study. The study
“Corridor” is defined as Route 41 (PA & DE), US 30, and PA 283, along with the Pennsylvania
Turnpike, other parallel routes, and the freight rail lines. [See Exhibit 1-1] Report #1 described
the existing conditions and base level freight traffic in the Corridor. The focus of this report is
identification of planned enhancements along the Corridor and forecasts of 2010 and 2025 freight
traffic. Report #3 will present four scenarios that outline strategies for more efficient and safe
movement of freight along the Corridor. These strategies, as selected by the Steering Committee,
are:
Railroad Scenario – explores the extent to which investment in the railroad system can provide a
more efficient transportation network in the Corridor.
Shipper Scenario – gain a better understanding of the supply chain patterns of key shippers and
identify potential investments and incentives for improved freight flow.
Combination of Proposed Local Roadway Improvements – look at the combination of local
proposals along the Corridor to examine their impact on freight movements.
Pennsylvania Turnpike Scenario – explore what is required to entice through trucks to use the
PA Turnpike, rather than the shortcut over the Corridor. Will consider twin trailers,
improved access roads, and tolls.
Exhibit 1-1
Wilmington-Harrisburg Study Corridor
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 3 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
This report presents a listing of planned improvements along the Corridor and the details of the
freight forecasts, both of which are necessary for the scenario analysis. The planned
improvements attempt to focus more on specific projects that have been approved rather than the
more speculative ideas that are still in the early planning stages. The scenario analysis will
assume that these projects will occur. Most of these projects were identified from the
Transportation Improvement Programs (TIP) of the respective MPOs along the Corridor. Other
projects, which could have an impact on Corridor freight traffic such as the Shellpot railroad
bridge rehabilitation and the new auto berth at the Port of Wilmington, are also included. A
description of the projects is contained in Section 2 of this report.
The principal finding of the investigation of planned improvements is that none of the projects
(with the possible exception of the Shellpot Bridge) will lead to a significant modal or route shift
in freight traffic to or from the Wilmington-Harrisburg Corridor.
The other major topic of this report, which is detailed in Section 3, is the presentation of the 2010
and 2025 freight forecasts. These forecasts were developed from a regional economic model of
projected outputs. The results are summarized in Exhibit 1-2.
Exhibit 1-2
Summary of Corridor Freight Forecasts
Average Daily Trucks
Base Year 2010 Year 2025
Low High
Type Road Trucks* Trucks Pct Trucks Pct Trucks Pct
Port 279 297 6.5% 324 16.1% 324 16.1%
Non-Port**
Route 41 3,052 3,942 29.1% 4,487 47.0% 5,602 83.5%
US 30 13,722 16,764 22.2% 18,924 37.9% 22,551 64.3%
PA 283 8,601 10,599 23.2% 11,967 39.1% 14,426 67.7%
I 283 10,150 12,488 23.0% 14,071 38.6% 16,901 66.5%
*For Port Traffic the Base Year is 2001. For Non-Port Traffic the Base Year is 2000.
**Non-Port traffic converted from Annual to Daily using 260 days/year
A single forecast was developed for all Corridor freight traffic through the year 2010 and for Port
traffic through 2025. For the non-port Corridor forecast between 2010 and 2025, the values were
bracketed into low and high estimates. The methodology and rational are contained in the
discussion of the non-port traffic forecasts. Overall, the low growth projection is a 39% increase
in truck traffic by 2025 (1.3% annually) and the high growth projection is a 67% increase (2.1%
annually) by 2025. The details and rational behind these forecasts are contained in Section 3 of
this report.
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 4 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
2. Corridor Improvements
This section identifies key transportation projects along the Wilmington-Harrisburg Corridor and
surrounding area that are important to consider as the freight study scenarios are evaluated. Most
of the projects listed here have made it past initial planning stages and can be considered as
“nearly certain” to occur. Generally, these are the projects that have made it onto a
Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) at the Wilmington Area Planning Council, Delaware
Valley Regional Planning Commission, Lancaster County Transportation Coordinating
Committee, or the Harrisburg Area Transportation Study. Also included are enhancements
planned at the Port of Wilmington, rail improvements, and the PA Turnpike.
There is no specific rule for what was and was not included in this list. The purpose is to
document and better understand all Corridor improvements so that their impact can be
incorporated into the scenario analysis. As each individual scenario is developed, it will be
determined what impact, if any, these enhancements might have on the final outcome.
The remainder of this section is organized geographically from the ports to Harrisburg. Railroads
are listed second since the primary project is the Shellpot Bridge, which impacts the Port of
Wilmington.
2.1 Port of Wilmington
The Port of Wilmington is a deepwater port and marine terminal handling over 400 vessels each
year with an annual import/export cargo tonnage of 5 million tons. It handles the largest volume
of imported fresh fruit, bananas, juice concentrate, and meat in North America. The Port is
located at the confluence of the Delaware and Christina Rivers.
The major project currently underway at the Port is the construction of a new auto berth. This
facility will be the first berth located on the Delaware River at the Port of Wilmington (all other
berths are on the Christina River.) The Port plans to increase its share of auto traffic by attracting
a new account once this facility opens in August of this year.
Other construction affecting the Port includes the widening of Terminal Avenue, which connects
the Port with I-495, and enhancements to the entrance/exit ramps on I-495. These changes will
improve access for trucks serving the Port. This work has been completed.
The final project having an impact on Port traffic is the rehabilitation of the Shellpot railroad
bridge. This project is discussed in the next section.
2.2 Railroad Enhancements
One of the more significant enhancements, from the viewpoint of the Wilmington-Harrisburg
Freight Study, is the rehabilitation of the Shellpot Bridge. The Shellpot Bridge is a swing-style
railroad drawbridge spanning the Christiana River near the Port of Wilmington. It was originally
constructed in 1888 on timber piers and upgraded to a concrete foundation in 1951. Conrail
discontinued service over the bridge in December 1994 when the foundation could no longer
support heavy freight trains. This forced freight trains serving the Port of Wilmington onto
Amtrak's Northeast Corridor track through the Wilmington Transit Center and then back down to
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 5 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
the Port. Since the freight trains could not interfere with Amtrak’s passenger service, this
arrangement added delay and limited the times that trains could enter and exit the Port.
In an effort to enhance the competitiveness of the Port of Wilmington and improve rail freight
service to the Delmarva Peninsula, the State of Delaware and Norfolk Southern Corporation
(which took over this track from Conrail) reached a unique agreement for the rehabilitation of the
Shellpot Bridge. Under the terms of the agreement, Delaware will fund the $13 million cost of
restoring the bridge for train service, and Norfolk Southern will compensate the state over a 20-
year period based on its use of the bridge. Norfolk Southern will reimburse the state through a
fee for each rail car that crosses the Shellpot Bridge. Upon completion of the project in 2003, the
Port will have greater flexibility to schedule inbound and outbound train service. The impacts of
the Shellpot Bridge rehabilitation on the Wilmington-Harrisburg Corridor will be discussed in
Report #3.
2.3 Wilmington Area Planning Council (WILMAPCO)
Transportation projects in New Castle County potentially impacting the Wilmington-Harrisburg
Corridor were identified in the WILMAPCO Transportation Improvement Program (TIP), Fiscal
Years 2002-2004 Report. The TIP is prepared every two years by WILMAPCO, in cooperation
with the Maryland and Delaware Departments of Transportation. Exhibit 2-1 displays the current
TIP projects for Northern New Castle County, which includes Route 41.
The two projects directly impacting Route 41 are:
SR 41 (Lancaster Pike) Yorklyn Road to Valley Road [Project 2-48] – This project addresses
current traffic and pedestrian safety issues along the corridor extending from north of Valley
Road to near School House Road on Route 41. The plan includes installation of auxiliary turn
lanes, channelization, restriping, crosswalks, possible street lighting and other aesthetic
enhancements, and could require additional right-of-way. It is scheduled for completion in 2003.
I-95 at SR 141 Interchange [Project 2-41] – This project will reconstruct the ramps, improve
drainage, and upgrade signage. The project will allow improved egress for maintenance and/or
emergency vehicles.
2.4 Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC)
DVRPC planned improvements in Chester County are taken from the Draft Fiscal Year 2003
Transportation Improvement Program, available on the internet at the DVRPC web site
[http://www.dvrpc.org/]. The Pennsylvania portion of the DVRPC TIP covers a four-year period
(FY 2003-2006) and is updated every other year. It includes all projects for which federal funds
will be sought, along with non-federally funded projects that are regionally significant. Projects
appearing on the TIP are not guaranteed to receive funding, but inclusion “means that it is
seriously expected to be implemented during the TIP time period.” Exhibit 2-2 shows the TIP
projects for Chester County.
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 6 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
Exhibit 2-1
WILMAPCO 2002-2004 TIP for Northern New Castle County
[Graphic from WIMPAPCO 2002-2004 TIP]
The DVRPC projects identified as having the most potential impact on the Wilmington-
Harrisburg Freight Study are:
PA 41 Improvements between Delaware State Line and PA 926 (TIP# 6719) – Continue to study
alternatives and complete environmental study. The current alternatives include widening and
limited realignment. Funded through 2003.
US 202, Section 100, Matlack Street to Delaware State Line (TIP# 6741) – Provide an additional
lane in each direction, construct grade separated interchanges at appropriate locations, and
improve access management. Affects West Goshen, Westtown, Thornbury, and Birmingham
Townships. This project is in the draft Environmental Impact Statement phase with no funding
for additional phases until evaluation of EIS.
PA 41, Gap Newport Road (TIP# 6813) – Realign intersection to form a “T” and add left turn
lanes on all approaches. Funding for 2004.
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 7 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
PA 41 Improvements between US 30 and PA 926 (TIP#6928) – Traffic safety improvements at
various intersections. Funding for 2004 and 2005.
PA 41/Zook Road Intersection Improvement (TIP# 6930) – Add left turn lanes on both
approaches of PA 41 and widen bridge over Octoraro Creek. Funding for 2003.
Exhibit 2-2
DVRPC 2003-2006 Highway TIP for Chester County
[Graphic from DVRPC 2003-2006 DRAFT TIP]
2.5 Lancaster County Transportation Coordinating Committee
The following projects, taken from the current TIP developed by the Lancaster County
Transportation Coordinating Committee, directly impact Routes 41, 30 and 283.
US 30 Environmental Impact Study from PA 896 to PA 41 – On-going transportation study of US
30 in eastern Lancaster County.
US 30 – East Bypass Improvements – This is an on-going project involving the US 30 bypass east
of Lancaster between US 222 and PA 462. The purpose is to improve traffic flow by widening
the roadway and improving interchanges, bridges and offsite locations.
PA 41 Widening – Turning Lane – Widen to three lanes from truck climbing lane to Dutchman’s
Market (Sadsbury Twp).
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 8 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
PA 41 Truck Climbing Lane – Add a truck climbing lane from US 30 to PA 741.
PA 283 Pavement Maintenance – Resurface and improve shoulders and guide rails, and
rehabilitate bridges from Elizabethtown Road to PA 230.
In addition to these projects, there are several efforts on the Lancaster County Transportation
Coordinating Committee TIP involving construction and rehabilitation of Amtrak rail stations.
These include restoration in Lancaster City, rehabilitation in Elizabethtown, relocation in Mount
Joy, and a new station in Paradise. While these stations will have no direct impact on freight
flows in the region, they could lead to improvements in overall traffic congestion due to more
usage of passenger rail. This is dependent outcome of the Congressional debate on the future of
Amtrak and U.S. intercity passenger rail.
2.6 Harrisburg Area Transportation Study (HATS)
Projects on the Harrisburg Area Transportation Study TIP impacting the Wilmington-Harrisburg
Freight Study fall into two broad categories. First, PA 283 is undergoing a complete
reconstruction between the Lancaster County border and I-283. Second, there are several projects
and studies underway to improve flow and connections on the Capital Area Beltway, specifically
among the PA Turnpike, I-81, I-83, I-283, US 15, and PA 581.
The reconstruction of PA 283 is divided into two components:
Reconstruction of PA 283 between PA 341 to Lancaster County line (HATS ID: D0130) –
Reconstruct roadway, rehabilitate bridges, ramps, signs, guiderails and shoulders between PA 341
and the Lancaster County border (estimated completion Nov. 2003).
Reconstruction of PA 283 between I-283 and PA 341 (HATS ID: D0133) – Reconstruct roadway,
rehabilitate bridges, improve signs, guide rails, and drainage on PA 283 between I-283 and PA
341 (estimated completion in 2007).
The Capital Area Beltway is a network of roads forming a loop around the Harrisburg area. The
Beltway includes I-81, I-83, U.S. 322, and PA 581. HATS has identified several projects aimed
at improving traffic flow and safety on this Beltway and connecting roads. Some of the more
prominent projects are:
US 15/PA 581 Improvements (HATS ID: C0109) – Widen and rehabilitate bridges, widen
roadway, and improve ramps on US 15 from Zimmerman Drive to PA 581. The scheduled
completion is November 2006 for eastbound PA 581. Westbound PA 581 will be completed after
the eastbound work. Similar improvements will also be done on PA 581 between I-83 and US
15.
St. John’s Church Road Interchange (HATS ID: C0304) – Add an east bound off ramp and a
westbound on ramp to Route 581, making St. John’s Church Road a full interchange. This will
provide direct access into an industrial park, eliminating the need to use local streets for
westbound Route 581 access. Preliminary engineering to make this a full interchange is
scheduled to start in 2006.
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 9 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
PA 944/I-83 Interchange (HATS ID: C0320) –Installed traffic signals at ramp intersections.
(Completed) A widening project is scheduled for completion by 2006.
Interstate 83 Preventive Maintenance (HATS ID: D0125) – Resurfacing I-83 from 19th Street to
I–81, I-283 from Eisenhower Interchange to PA Turnpike, Eisenhower Blvd from Paxton Street
to Clover Lane, and US 322 from Eisenhower Interchange to Penhar Drive. The Norfolk
Southern Railroad Rutherford Yard is located near the Penhar Drive interchange on US 322.
(estimated completion November 2003.)
I-81 Restoration 2 (HATS ID: D0117) – I-81/I-83 interchange improvements and reconstruction
and rehabilitate of bridges and improved signage on I-81 from Susquehanna River to west of the
Linglestown Interchange, Exit 26 (estimated completion in September 2004).
I-83 Improvements (HATS ID: D0391) – Reconstruction of I-83 from the PA 581 interchange to
the I-81 interchange in Dauphin and Cumberland Counties (in study phase).
2.7 Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission
The PA Turnpike is included in this discussion since any major enhancements or alterations could
increase/decrease the amount of truck traffic on alternate routes, such as the Wilmington-
Harrisburg Corridor.
The major enhancement proposed for the PA Turnpike east of Harrisburg is the direct interchange
with I-95. [See Exhibit 2-3, which was taken from the Pennsylvania Turnpike Internet Site –
www.paturnpike.com – Capital Improvements.] Currently, a five-mile stretch on Route 1 (four
lanes, traffic lights, side roads) connects the Turnpike and I-95. This proposed direct connection
would improve transit times and safety, but may be too far north and east of the Corridor to have
a significant impact on Wilmington-Harrisburg freight flows. This project is in the early
environmental review stages, with an Environmental Impact Statement due in the winter of 2002.
Note that this is the only major capital improvement on the PA Turnpike east of Harrisburg.
Discussions with PA Turnpike Commission have yielded several other enhancements that should
be considered when evaluating the WHFS scenarios. One is the reconstruction of the
Susquehanna River Bridge and Exit 19 ramps. Another enhancement is a potential EZ Pass only
exit onto Route 29 between existing Exits 23 (Downingtown) and 24 (Valley Forge). Finally,
there is ongoing bridge rehabilitation and median construction between Exits 23 and 24 and road
repair and repaving between Exits 22 (Morgantown) and 23.
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 10 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
Exhibit 2-3
Major Capital Improvements Along the Pennsylvania Turnpike
[Graphic from PA Turnpike Internet Site]
2.8 Summary of the Corridor Enhancements
While there are several enhancements planned for the Wilmington-Harrisburg Corridor and along
neighboring routes, they are mostly reconstruction, maintenance, and repair projects that will add
no significant additional capacity to the Corridor. The primary purpose of many of the projects,
particularly the addition of turning lanes and improved signals and signage, is to improve safety
and reduce congestion at specific locations along the Corridor and connecting roads.
From a freight perspective, the most significant project is the reconstruction of the Shellpot
Bridge. This project should help to alleviate some of the truck traffic around the Port of
Wilmington. Its impact on the Corridor will be one of the topics explored in the Railroad
Scenario in Report #3.
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 11 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
3. Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study Forecasts
In the Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study Report #1, “Current Corridor Conditions,” the base
level truck traffic on the study Corridor was detailed. This section uses both the port generated
and non-port generated base level Corridor freight traffic and develops forecasts for the years
2010 and 2025. These forecasts will be used during the scenario analysis to identify the type and
quantity of future freight traffic impacted by each of the four scenarios.
This section is divided into three parts. The first part summarizes historical data obtained from
PennDOT, the Lancaster County Planning Commission, and FHWA. While the past is not
always an indication of the future, these data will help provide an intuitive feel for the
reasonableness of the forecasts. The second part describes the methodology and results of the
forecasts for Port of Wilmington generated Corridor freight traffic. The final part describes the
methodology and results of the forecasts for non-port generated Corridor freight traffic.
Prior to delving into the details of the analysis, Table 1 is repeated here to provide a summary of
the results of the forecasts for both port and non-port Corridor freight traffic. A single forecast
was developed for all Corridor freight traffic through the year 2010 and for Port traffic through
2025. For the non-port Corridor forecast between 2010 and 2025, the values were bracketed
between a low and high estimate. The methodology and rational are contained in the discussion
of the non-port traffic forecasts.
Table 3-1
Summary of Corridor Freight Forecasts
Average Daily Trucks
Base Year 2010 Year 2025
Low High
Type Road Trucks* Trucks Pct Trucks Pct Trucks Pct
Port 279 297 6.5% 324 16.1% 324 16.1%
Non-Port**
Route 41 3,052 3,942 29.1% 4,487 47.0% 5,602 83.5%
US 30 13,722 16,764 22.2% 18,924 37.9% 22,551 64.3%
PA 283 8,601 10,599 23.2% 11,967 39.1% 14,426 67.7%
I 283 10,150 12,488 23.0% 14,071 38.6% 16,901 66.5%
*For Port Traffic the Base Year is 2001. For Non-Port Traffic the Base Year is 2000.
**Non-Port traffic converted from Annual to Daily using 260 days/year
3.1 Historical Perspective
Two sources are used to provide checks of the forecasted growth in truck volumes. One is
historical data obtained from PennDOT and the Lancaster County P lanning Commission and the
other is a FHWA freight forecast.
Historical Freight Growth in Region
An estimation of historical growth rates of truck volumes and the percentage of trucks to total
traffic were developed from PennDOT Roadway Management Information System data. These
data were obtained from both the Lancaster County Planning Commission and PennDOT. The
analysis yielded the following results:
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 12 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
PA 283 had 3.4% annual growth in truck volumes and –0.2% annual decline in percent
trucks (observations ranged from 1982-2000)
US 30 had 4.3% annual growth in truck volumes and –0.1% annual decline in percent
trucks (observations ranged from 1983-2000)
PA 41 had 3.7% annual growth in truck volumes and 0.2% annual increase in percent
trucks (observations ranged from 1982-2001)
All three routes had a steady and substantial growth rate in truck traffic. The proportion of trucks
to cars remained nearly constant. The Appendix contains the details behind these estimates along
with all of the data received.
FHWA Forecasts
The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Office of Freight Management and Operations, in
conjunction with DRI-WEFA (an econometric forecasting company) developed a set of national
freight forecast factors based on 1998 data and projected through the year 2020. The results were
that domestic freight was projected to increase by 87% from 1998-2020 and international freight
by 107%. The specific results were:
US Domestic:
1998-2020: 2.9% (Cumulative: 87%)
1998-2010: 3.4%
2010-2020: 2.4%
US International:
1998-2020: 3.4% (Cumulative: 107%)
1998-2010: 4.0%
2010-2020: 2.4%
While the forecasts developed for the Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study were based on local,
industry sector specific information rather than national averages, there are two things to keep in
mind from this FHWA study. First, average annual growth is about 3%. Second, the growth rate
for 1998-2010 is projected to be greater than the growth rate between 2010-2020.
Comparison with Forecasts
Both the historical growth rates in the Corridor and the FHWA national projections are greater
than the forecasts developed for this study. The FHWA projection was for 2.9% annual growth in
freight tonnage. Historical annual growth was 3.4% on PA 283, 4.3% on US 30, and 3.7% on PA
41. This study projects annual growth ranging from a low of 1.3% to a high of 2.1%.
The FHWA forecast is based on a national average, combining high growth and low growth
regions. If instead of freight, one looks at population, the US Census Bureau is projecting a 40%
increase between 2000 and 2025 for population in Florida and a 4% increase over the same time
frame in Pennsylvania. This is a 22% increase on average, but of little use to planners in either
state.
The growth in Corridor freight traffic is expected to be less in the future than in the past for two
reasons. First, the results are reported as percentages so even a constant increase in the number of
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 13 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
trucks will lead to a slowing of the growth rate as the base volume increases. Second, since the
overall population growth for Pennsylvania is 4% (total, not an annual rate) through 2025 based
on US Census estimates, the amount of goods for local consumption will not greatly increase.
The details behind the forecasts are contained in the next two sections.
3.2 Port Freight Traffic Forecasts
In order to project the future port-generated traffic volumes on the Corridor, interviews were
conducted with terminal operators to estimate the average growth rate for commodities moving
over the docks at the Port of Wilmington. Since the Port of Wilmington largely handles
consumable goods, many of the forecasts are driven by population growth.
Regional population forecasts were provided to the Consultant Team by the York College-York
Federal Institute for Regional Affairs. The York Federal Institute for Regional Affairs prepares
semi annual forecasts of economic and demographic activity in the South Central Pennsylvania
Region, consisting of York County, Lancaster County, Dauphin County, Lebanon County,
Adams County, Franklin County, and Cumberland County. The forecasts are used by the
regional business and banking communities to monitor and project economic activity. The
forecasts are driven by The REMI model (Regional Economic Models, Inc.). The regional
models predict demand and supply conditions across 53 business sectors, 94 occupations, and 25
final demand sectors. Using the REMI model forecasts for population in the region, population is
projected to increase by 17.7% over the 2001-2025 period. This translates into an average annual
growth rate of 0.65%.
The results of the port interviews and commodity forecasts are presented below.
3.2.1 SIC2D 01 Containerized and Breakbulk Fruit
By far the largest Port of Wilmington commodity moving on the Corridor is imported fruit.
These commodities include containerized bananas and pineapples as well as breakbulk fruits
including grapes, apples, kiwis and oranges. Terminal interviews indicated that it is difficult to
estimate a long-term (more than one year) forecast for inbound fruits through the Port of
Wilmington. Numerous factors affect the import growth, including weather, global prices, import
quotas, and the amount of acreage dedicated to production. It is also possible that fruit cargo
could be diverted to other Delaware River ports, which would have implications on the truck
routing along the Corridor. Finally, terminal capacity constraints at the Port of Wilmington could
limit short-term growth, but be corrected in the longer term to accommodated regional and
national demand.
Because of the uncertainty associated with the development of the long-term projections, it is
necessary to focus on the demand for imported fruit. Data obtained from the US Department of
Agriculture (USDA) illustrating historical per capita fruit and juice consumption are shown in
Exhibit 1. As can be seen in the Exhibit, historical per capita consumption of the key fruit
products has remained relatively stable over time, particularly since 1998. Since per capita
consumption appears to be relatively stable, it can be assumed that the growth in the fruits will be
determined by population growth in the region. Exhibits 3-1 & 3-2 illustrate the historical per
capita fruit consumption and population forecasts for Central Pennsylvania Counties as well as
the Commonwealth.
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 14 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
Exhibit 3-1
Historical Fruit and Juice Consumption in Gallons per Capita (1993-2000)
90
80
70 apples
60 apple juice
50 grapes
40 bananas
30 orange juice
20 pineapples
10
0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Source: Econo mic Research Service/USDA
Exhibit 3-2
Population Forecasts for Selected Pennsylvania Counties
2000-2020
1,900
1,850
1,800
Thousands
1,750
1,700 Population
1,650
1,600
1,550
1,500
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Source: York College-Yo rk Federal Institute for Regional Affairs
3.2.2 SIC2D 20 Juice Concentrate and Frozen Meat
Bulk and breakbulk juice concentrates moving over the docks in Wilmington share similar
relationships to the fruit market by the fact that the juice market demand is also driven by
consumption, and hence population growth. Since per capita juice consumption has remained
stable over the past 4 years, it is assumed that growth in population will drive the imports of juice.
Therefore, the annual population growth rate of 0.62% for the region is applied to the baseline
truck traffic handling the imported juices.
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 15 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
Most meat moves via the Port of Wilmington in the form of breakbulk or palletized meat.
Containerized meat (reefer meat) is typically imported via the Port of Philadelphia. As container
capacity for meat increases, there may be diversion of breakbulk meat to containers, and away
form the Port of Wilmington. However, the degree of the shift to containers is uncertain, as the
diversion will be dependent upon such factors as price differentials between containerized versus
breakbulk shipping rates, terminal technology in loading ports in Australia and New Zealand, and
the desire to maintain a mix of breakbulk and container shipments by the exporters for pricing
strategies.
Interviews with the meat importers using Wilmington estimate a 3-5% growth rate between 2001
and 2002. However, longer-term projections are difficult to estimate due to the uncertainty
regarding the level of import quotas, which restricts the amount of meat imported into the United
States. In the near future, the Meat Importers Association will be petitioning the Federal
Government to raise the quotas on meat imported from Australia and New Zealand. Many of the
fast food chains in the United States use Australian and New Zealand beef because of its leaner
quality. Recently, McDonalds announced that it will begin using Australian and New Zealand
meat in their processing as well and this announcement will most likely drive up the demand for
Australian and New Zealand meat, adding to the demand via the Port of Wilmington. Since meat
imports are consumer driven for long run planning purposes, it is assumed that the meat imports
will also grow in response to the growth in regional population. Overall, frozen meat and
concentrated juices arriving at the Port of Wilmington are projected to increase by 21.2%
between 2001 and 2025.
3.2.3 SIC2D 37 Autos
Through interviews with the auto terminals in Wilmington, the leading auto importer at the Port
expects to handle 160,000 autos annually through Wilmington by 2006. This falls in line with the
companies’ target of doubling the amount of autos imported into the United States by 2007.
However, the lease for this importer will expire at the end of 2003, and there has been an
increasing trend to consolidate auto import facilities at fewer ports of import. The competition
for auto imports and exports as well as for domestic auto distribution/processing activities is very
strong between such ports as Davisville, RI, (where autos are not subject to the Harbor
Maintenance Tax of about $20-$25 per car), the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and
the Port of Baltimore. Given this level of competition for the auto business, it is necessary to
develop a low auto forecast as well. In the long-term it is assumed that the demand for auto
imports will most likely be driven by the overall demand for automobile sales in the United
States, which is ultimately a function of population. Automotive News, Market Data Book 2001
is projecting U.S. sales of autos and light trucks to increase by 3% through 2005, for an average
annual growth rate of about 0.74% annually. Due to the uncertainty associated with the intense
port competition for the import business, for long-term planning purposes it is assumed that under
a more conservative forecast, the auto imports and exports via the Port of Wilmington will grow
at a rate of 0.739% annually through 2005, and then grow at the annual population growth
projected for the region for the duration of the forecast period.
Two forecasts were then developed for auto traffic at the Port of Wilmington. The most
optimistic forecast assumes that the Port’s leading auto customer will meet its pro jected target of
160,000 units by 2006. After that period, it is assumed that the auto traffic will grow at the
annual growth in regional population. Under this high scenario, it is assumed that the Port of
Wilmington auto traffic will meet targeted goals by the year 2006, and then grow at the annual
population growth rate through 2025. The low scenario is based on the annual growth in auto
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 16 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
sales through 2005, and then the long-term growth after 2005 is based on the average annual
growth in regional population growth in the midpoint of these two forecasts was used to project
auto truck traffic. Using these forecast assumptions, port-generated auto traffic is projected to
grow by 48% over the forecast period.
3.2.4 SIC2D 24&33 Lumber & Steel
Based on interviews with the terminal operators, imported Canadian lumber expects to have an
annual growth of 5% in the near term over the next 4 years. This is driven by the construction
demand over the next few years. The steel market, however, is very uncertain due to the
imposition of import tariffs on imported steel products by the Bush Administration to bolster
domestic steel production. This uncertainty in the import steel market makes it difficult to
estimate any future growth or decline in steel traffic moving across the docks in Wilmington.
The long-term forecasts for the value of regional construction activity, based on the REMI model,
projects regional construction activity to grow by 23% between 2000 and 2025.
The lumber traffic is projected to increase by 5% annually through 2005, then to grow in response
to the long-term regional constriction industry forecasts. Using these assumptions, port generated
lumber traffic is projected to grow by 40% over the 25 year forecast period.
Imported steel is used primarily for local construction. Therefore, steel imports are projected to
grow by more than 21% over the 2001 levels.
3.2.5 SIC2D 10, 14 & 32/52 Dry Bulks Including Gypsum and Drywall
The dry bulk commodities that move over the docks are typically used by local industries.
Inbound gypsum is consumed on-site and is manufactured into drywall. Interview with the
terminal operator suggests that the plant is near production capacity and that the market is driven
by the construction and home improvement industry. Since the plant is near production capacity,
the market will see minimal growth over the near term, and no growth is anticipated in the long
term. Salt is uncertain due to the fact that it is driven by the severity of winter climates and
stockpile volumes.
For planning purposes, no growth in port generated truck traffic carrying dry bulks, gypsum and
drywall is assumed for the Corridor over the forecast period.
3.2.6 SIC2D 29 Petroleum Products
The petroleum products that are shipped from the Ports (Wilmington and Philadelphia Terminals)
include heating and fuel oils, and to a lesser extent gasoline and jet fuels. The growth of these
industries relies heavily on many external factors such as severity of winter, crude oil prices,
costs of alternative fuels, and aviation demand.
Since the bulk of the petroleum products are used for household consumption, long-term regional
population growth is used to project future port generated petroleum products truck traffic.
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 17 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
3.2.7 Average Daily Port-Generated Traffic Forecast Summaries
Table 3-2 presents the truck trip projections for truck traffic along the Corridor under study.
Table 3-3 shows the growth in traffic over the 2001 base year.
Table 3-2
Average Daily Port-Generated Truck Trips Along the Corridor
SIC2D CARGO 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
01 FRUIT 104 107 109 113 117 122
20 FROZEN MEAT/JUICE 18 19 20 20 21 22
37 AUTOS 16 20 21 22 23 24
24 LUMBER 2 3 3 3 3 3
33 STEEL 23 24 25 26 27 28
10,14,32/52 DRYBULK 58 58 58 58 58 58
29 PETROLEUM 58 59 61 63 65 68
TOTAL 279 290 297 305 314 325
Table 3-3
Growth Rates in Port-Generated Truck Traffic
CARGO 2001-2005 2001-2010 2001-2015 2001-2020 2001-2025
01 FRUIT 1.021 1.047 1.082 1.124 1.169
20 FROZEN MEAT/JUICE 1.057 1.085 1.121 1.166 1.212
37 AUTOS 1.231 1.325 1.369 1.423 1.480
24 LUMBER 1.216 1.258 1.303 1.348 1.396
33 STEEL 1.057 1.094 1.132 1.172 1.214
10,14,32/52DRYBULK 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
29 PETROLEUM 1.022 1.048 1.083 1.126 1.172
3.3 Non-Port Freight Traffic Forecasts
To estimate the non-port generated truck flows, the REMI-generated regional industry value of
output forecasts were correlated with the industry codes corresponding to the non-port generated
commodities moving on the Corridor. The regional industry forecasts were developed by York
College - The York Federal Institute for Regional Affairs. The forecasts are based on the REMI
model for economic and demographic activity in the South Central Pennsylvania Region,
consisting of York County, Lancaster County, Dauphin County, Lebanon County, Adams
County, Franklin County, and Cumberland County. The forecasts are used by the regional
business and banking communities to monitor and project economic activity. The regional
models predict demand and supply conditions across 53 business sectors, 94 occupations, and 25
final demand sectors.
The Consultant Team then applied these regional industry forecasts to the appropriate baseline
commodity-specific (SIC 2 Digit) truck flow data. Table 3-4 shows the forecasted industry sector
value of output growth rates (in constant dollars to control for future inf lation). The REMI Model
projected output by industry sector through 2010, generating a 23% increase in freight traffic
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 18 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
along the Corridor between 2000 and 2010. To project these forecasts out to 2025, it should be
emphasized that the uncertainty of the forecasts increases with the length of the time horizon.
Therefore, low and high growth scenarios were developed for the years between 2010 and 2025
to provide a range for the estimates. This is illustrated in Exhibit 3-1.
Exhibit 3-1
Growth Rates for Non-Port Corridor Freight Traffic
Low Forecast High Forecast
70
Cumulative Percent Growth
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year
The high growth scenario assumes that the 2005-2010 growth rate projected by REMI for each
industry sector will continue at that 5 year rate for the balance of the forecast period (through
2025). This leads to an unconstrained growth and may overstate some industry sectors currently
experiencing high growth. An example is machinery (including computers), which has a short-
term growth rate of 7.2% annually, leading to a 25-year growth of over 550%. Overall, this high
growth scenario leads to a 67% increase in freight traffic along the Corridor between 2000 and
2025.
The low growth scenario capped annual growth and decline within an industry sector at 1%
between the years 2010 and 2025. This forecast takes a more pessimistic long-term view of the
national economy and change in freight movements. When this methodology was applied to the
Corridor freight traffic, fourteen of the twenty-five industry sectors were capped at an annual
growth of +1% and three at an annual decline of –1%. This forecast projects a total 39% increase
in Corridor freight traffic between 2000 and 2025.
Given the uncertainty with the long-term forecasts, this type of scenario analysis will provide a
reasonable range of growth in traffic. It is within this range that the alternatives analysis can be
conducted.
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 19 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
Table 3-4
Forecasted Value of Output Growth Rates by Industry Sector
(Constant Dollars)
output forecasts
SIC2D 2000-2001 2000-2005 2000-2010
24 Lumber 1.00 1.02 1.06
25 Furniture 1.00 1.00 1.02
32 Stone,Clay,Etc. 1.00 1.02 1.03
33 Primary Metals 1.00 1.01 1.04
34 Fabricated Metals 1.01 1.07 1.14
35/36 Machin & Comput 1.10 1.62 2.29
36 Electric Equip 1.08 1.44 1.91
37 Motor Vehicles 1.00 1.00 0.96
37 Rest Trans Equip 1.05 1.30 1.54
38 Instruments 1.00 0.98 1.06
39 Misc. Manufact 1.03 1.18 1.28
20 Food 1.02 1.09 1.15
21 Tobacco Manuf 0.92 0.66 0.60
22 Textiles 1.01 1.04 1.04
23 Apparel 1.00 1.02 0.96
26 Paper 1.01 1.07 1.14
27 Printing 1.01 1.05 1.10
28 Chemicals 1.04 1.24 1.47
29 Petro Products 1.11 1.67 2.00
30 Rubber 1.03 1.16 1.33
31 Leather
40 Railroad 1.02 1.10 1.17
42 Trucking 1.03 1.18 1.34
41 Local&Interurban 1.03 1.19 1.38
45 Air Transportation 1.05 1.25 1.50
47 Other Transport 1.03 1.14 1.29
48 Communication 1.05 1.28 1.54
49 Public Utilities 1.02 1.08 1.17
Banking 1.03 1.18 1.35
Insurance 1.01 1.06 1.12
Credit & Finance 1.07 1.41 1.76
Real Estate 1.04 1.22 1.42
58 Eating & Drinking 1.03 1.14 1.23
59 Rest of Retail 1.03 1.15 1.31
Hotels 1.02 1.10 1.20
Pers Serv & Rep 1.02 1.10 1.20
Private Household 1.00 1.00 1.14
55 Auto Rep&Serv 1.06 1.36 1.65
Misc. Bus Serv 1.07 1.39 1.74
Amusem & Recr 1.05 1.26 1.47
Motion Pictures 1.03 1.17 1.33
Medical 1.03 1.16 1.32
Misc. Prof Serv 1.03 1.14 1.28
Education 1.03 1.17 1.33
Non-Profit Org 1.04 1.19 1.35
2 digit sectors
50 Durables Manuf 1.06 1.35 1.71
51 Non-Durbls Manuf 1.01 1.07 1.15
10/11 Mining 1.01 1.06 1.09
16 Construction 1.01 1.07 1.11
47/49 Trans.&Public Util. 1.03 1.15 1.29
99 Fin&Ins&Real Est 1.04 1.22 1.41
59 Retail Trade 1.03 1.15 1.28
51 Wholesale Trade 1.02 1.13 1.28
99 Services 1.04 1.22 1.42
Source: York College-York Federal Institute for Regional Affairs and the REM I model.
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 20 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
Tables 3-5 through 3-8 contain the forecast results for non-port annual trucks summarized by
route. These four tables include the Year 2000 base, 2010 forecast, and 2025 low and high
forecasts. Please note that Tables 3-6 through 3-8 contain the change in traffic from 2000, not
the total traffic.
Table 3-5
Year 2000 Non-Port Corridor Freight Traffic in Annual Trucks
Total 2000 Base -- Annual Trucks (Non-
Route
Port Traffic) on Corridor
STCC2 Commodity De scription I-283 S-283 S-41 U-30 Grand Total
01 Farm Products 118,472 127,771 31,500 245,671 523,414
10 Metallic Ores 8,116 4,012 0 11,698 23,826
11 Coal 59,504 155,468 287 161,274 376,533
14 Nonmetallic Minerals 201,130 94,885 0 232,345 528,361
20 Food Or Kindred Products 320,187 241,697 120,877 425,691 1,108, 452
21 Tobacco Products 97 432 57 1,882 2,468
22 Textile Mill Products 2,784 5,506 908 13,625 22,823
23 Apparel Or Related Products 1,250 1,169 801 2,880 6,100
24 Lumber Or Wood Products 183,144 76,221 32,010 150,051 441,425
25 Furnit ure Or Fixtures 4,387 4,377 2,709 8,669 20,142
26 Pulp, Paper Or Allied Products 49,334 35,254 11,323 98,124 194,035
27 Printed Matter 10,781 8,606 3,087 19,422 41,896
28 Chemicals Or Allied Products 92,078 124,900 84,974 189,533 491,484
29 Petroleum Or Coal Products 142,411 107,358 75,938 148,039 473,746
30 Rubber Or Misc Plastics 11,670 30,959 19,310 40,362 102,301
31 Leather Or Leather Products 3,504 351 199 1,712 5,767
32 Clay, Concrete, Glass Or Stone 533,270 362,137 129,362 578,705 1,603, 474
33 Primary Metal Products 138,269 223,497 60,969 309,376 732,111
34 Fabricat ed Metal Products 12,716 40,218 23,678 54,279 130,890
35 Machinery 6,153 12,922 6,161 17,891 43,126
36 Electrical Equipment 3,050 5,866 2,932 8,745 20,593
37 Trans port ation Equipment 7,479 49,105 44,558 54,744 155,886
38 Instrum, Photo Equip, Optical Eq 179 1,086 682 1,515 3,462
39 Misc Manufacturing Products 452 2,298 932 6,298 9,981
50 Secondary Traffic 728,574 520,145 140,271 785,292 2,174, 282
Grand Total 2,638, 991 2,236, 241 793,526 3,567, 821 9,236, 578
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 21 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
Table 3-6
Growth in Year 2010 Non-Port Corridor Freight Traffic in Annual Trucks
Total 2010 Growth (Loss) Annual Trucks
Route
Non-Port Traffi c on Corridor
STCC2 Commodity De scription I-283 S-283 S-41 U-30 Grand Total
01 Farm Products 19,745 21,295 5,250 40,945 87,236
10 Metallic Ores 738 365 - 1,063 2,166
11 Coal 5,409 14,133 26 14,661 34,230
14 Nonmetallic Minerals 18,285 8,626 - 21,122 48,033
20 Food Or Kindred Products 48,419 36,549 18,279 64,373 167,620
21 Tobacco Products (39) (175) (23) (761) (998)
22 Textile Mill Products 121 239 39 592 992
23 Apparel Or Related Products (51) (48) (33) (118) (249)
24 Lumber Or Wood Products 10,989 4,573 1,921 9,003 26,486
25 Furnit ure Or Fixtures 80 80 49 158 366
26 Pulp, Paper Or Allied Products 6,966 4,978 1,599 13,856 27,400
27 Printed Matter 1,103 880 316 1,987 4,286
28 Chemicals Or Allied Products 43,616 59,163 40,251 89,779 232,808
29 Petroleum Or Coal Products 142,411 107,358 75,938 148,039 473,746
30 Rubber Or Misc Plastics 3,809 10,106 6,303 13,175 33,394
31 Leather Or Leather Products (143) (14) (8) (70) (235)
32 Clay, Concrete, Glass Or Stone 17,110 11,619 4,151 18,568 51,448
33 Primary Metal Products 6,012 9,717 2,651 13,451 31,831
34 Fabricat ed Metal Products 1,775 5,615 3,306 7,578 18,274
35 Machinery 7,923 16,640 7,933 23,039 55,535
36 Electrical Equipment 2,775 5,336 2,667 7,955 18,733
37 Trans port ation Equipment 1,436 9,428 8,555 10,511 29,930
38 Instrum, Photo Equip, Optical Eq 10 62 39 87 199
39 Misc Manufacturing Products 127 644 261 1,763 2,795
50 Secondary Traffic 269,208 192,194 51,830 290,166 803,397
Grand Total 607,834 519,365 231,301 790,923 2,149, 423
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 22 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
Table 3-7
Low Growth in Year 2025 Non-Port Corridor Freight Traffic (Annual Trucks)
LOW CASE
Total 2025 Growth (Loss) Annual Trucks Non -
Port Traffic on Corridor (LOW Ca se) Route
STCC2 Commodity De scription I-283 S-283 S-41 U-30 Grand Total
01 Farm Products 41,994 45,290 11,166 87,082 185,531
10 Metallic Ores 1,519 751 - 2,189 4,458
11 Coal 11,134 29,090 54 30,176 70,454
14 Nonmetallic Minerals 37,634 17,754 - 43,475 98,863
20 Food Or Kindred Products 107,753 81,338 40,679 143,258 373,028
21 Tobacco Products (47) (211) (28) (918) (1,203)
22 Textile Mill Products 121 239 39 592 992
23 Apparel Or Related Products (219) (205) (140) (504) (1,068)
24 Lumber Or Wood Products 34,735 14,456 6,071 28,459 83,721
25 Furnit ure Or Fixtures 328 327 202 648 1,505
26 Pulp, Paper Or Allied Products 16,029 11,454 3,679 31,881 63,044
27 Printed Matter 3,016 2,407 864 5,433 11,720
28 Chemicals Or Allied Products 65,458 88,791 60,408 134,739 349,397
29 Petroleum Or Coal Products 188,259 141,921 100,386 195,698 626,263
30 Rubber Or Misc Plastics 6,301 16,716 10,426 21,793 55,236
31 Leather Or Leather Products (613) (61) (35) (300) (1,009)
32 Clay, Concrete, Glass Or Stone 34,581 23,484 8,389 37,528 103,982
33 Primary Metal Products 20,430 33,022 9,008 45,711 108,171
34 Fabricat ed Metal Products 4,108 12,992 7,649 17,535 42,284
35 Machinery 10,189 21,399 10,202 29,627 71,417
36 Electrical Equipment 3,712 7,139 3,568 10,643 25,063
37 Trans port ation Equipment 2,871 18,850 17,105 21,015 59,841
38 Instrum, Photo Equip, Optical Eq 41 247 155 345 788
39 Misc Manufacturing Products 220 1,117 453 3,061 4,851
50 Secondary Traffic 429,820 306,858 82,753 463,281 1,282, 711
Grand Total 1,019, 372 875,169 373,054 1,352, 447 3,620, 041
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 23 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
Table 3-8
High Growth in Year 2025 Non-Port Corridor Freight Traffic (Annual Trucks)
HIGH CASE
Total 2025 Growth (Loss) Annual Trucks
Non-Port Traffi c on Corridor (HIGH Ca se) Route
STCC2 Commodity De scription I-283 S-283 S-41 U-30 Grand Total
01 Farm Products 46,429 50,074 12,345 96,279 205,128
10 Metallic Ores 1,519 751 - 2,189 4,458
11 Coal 11,134 29,090 54 30,176 70,454
14 Nonmetallic Minerals 37,634 17,754 - 43,475 98,863
20 Food Or Kindred Products 110,889 83,706 41,863 147,428 383,885
21 Tobacco Products (54) (242) (32) (1,056) (1,384)
22 Textile Mill Products 121 239 39 592 992
23 Apparel Or Related Products (254) (238) (163) (586) (1,240)
24 Lumber Or Wood Products 34,735 14,456 6,071 28,459 83,721
25 Furnit ure Or Fixtures 328 327 202 648 1,505
26 Pulp, Paper Or Allied Products 19,132 13,672 4,391 38,053 75,248
27 Printed Matter 3,119 2,490 893 5,619 12,122
28 Chemicals Or Allied Products 137,447 186,441 126,843 282,921 733,652
29 Petroleum Or Coal Products 349,762 263,672 186,504 363,583 1,163,521
30 Rubber Or Misc Plastics 11,436 30,339 18,924 39,553 100,252
31 Leather Or Leather Products (712) (71) (41) (348) (1,172)
32 Clay, Concrete, Glass Or Stone 34,581 23,484 8,389 37,528 103,982
33 Primary Metal Products 20,430 33,022 9,008 45,711 108,171
34 Fabricat ed Metal Products 4,881 15,438 9,089 20,835 50,243
35 Machinery 33,624 70,617 33,668 97,772 235,681
36 Electrical Equipment 10,481 20,156 10,074 30,049 70,760
37 Trans port ation Equipment 3,985 26,163 23,740 29,168 83,056
38 Instrum, Photo Equip, Optical Eq 61 370 232 516 1,180
39 Misc Manufacturing Products 287 1,457 591 3,992 6,326
50 Secondary Traffic 884,270 631,300 170,247 953,109 2,638,926
Grand Total 1,755,264 1,514,467 662,933 2,295,665 6,228,329
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 24 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
APPENDIX – Historical Truck Traffic Growth Rates
The estimation of historical growth rates of truck volumes and the percentage of trucks to total
traffic were based on data from the PennDOT Roadway Management Information System. The
data were obtained from both the Lancaster County Planning Commission and PennDOT.
An initial effort was undertaken to apply statistical time series techniques to identify the historical
trends and seasonality in the truck growth rates and percentage of trucks. This effort was soon
aborted due to the small amount of available data (especially when subdivided into route segment
and time frame). This effort was further complicated by the irregular nature of the collection
times. It was therefore decided to use a simple heuristic approach that would maximize the
number of observations that could be included.
Tables A-1, A-2, and A-3 contain the results of the analysis for PA 283, US 30, and PA 41,
respectively. All of the historical truck data received are contained in these three tables. Records
with a strikethrough were not used in the analysis for reasons given below. Overall,
PA 283 had 3.4% annual growth in truck volumes and –0.2% annual decline
in percent trucks
US 30 had 4.3% annual growth in truck volumes and –0.1% annual decline in
percent trucks
PA 41 had 3.7% annual growth in truck volumes and 0.2% annual increase in
percent trucks
These values were developed by calculating the change between observations on the same road
segment. The following rules were applied to minimize any seasonality effects and provide
consistent treatment of all data:
1. The rate of change in volumes and percent trucks were only calculated for observations in
the same or adjacent months (e.g.: a rate would be calculated for June 1985 to July 1991,
but not for June 1985 to September 1991).
2. The rate of change was only calculated within the same road segments.
3. If two or more observations were given for the same road segment, in the same or
adjacent month, in the same year, these observations were averaged (e.g.: see PA 501/PA
23 in the US 30 table).
4. All rates were converted to an average annual rate.
5. The overall averages for each road were based on the average annual rates across all
segments, weighted by the span in years between observations.
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 25 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
Table A-1: PA 283 Hi storic Traffic Growth
Span Annual Change
Segment Date (years) AADT ADTT Pct Truck Growth Truck %
TPK/Middletown Rd Exit 10/1/1991 23,272 3,409 14.6%
Middletown Rd Exit/PA 743 7/19/1982 16,119 2,520 15.6%
Middletown Rd Exit/PA 743 8/28/1990 8 20,946 3,357 16.0% 3.6% 0.0%
Middletown Rd Exit/PA 743 7/23/1991 1 30,163 3,871 12.8% 15.3% -3.2%
PA 743/PA 772 3/12/1987 22,202 3,673 16.5%
PA 743/PA 772 3/12/1987 25,280 3,864 15.3%
PA 772/PA 741 6/27/1989 34,467 4,217 12.2%
PA 741/US 30 7/23/1986 26,176 3,538 13.5%
PA 741/US 30 6/29/1989 3 29,560 3,597 12.2% 0.6% -0.5%
PA 722/Spooky Nook Rd 1991 30,961 3,865 12.5%
PA 722/Spooky Nook Rd 2000 9 39,795 4,571 11.5% 1.9% -0.1%
Cloverleaf/PA 743 1991 23,534 4,000 17.0%
Cloverleaf/PA 743 2000 9 38,990 5,849 15.0% 4.3% -0.2%
A verage (weighted by Span) 3.4% -0.2%
Source: PennDOT Roadway Management Information System
Table A-2: US 30 Hi storic Traffic Growth
Span Pct Annual Change
Segment Date (years) AADT ADTT Truck Growth Truck %
PA 283/PA 501 1/22/1988 83,865 10,484 12.5%
PA 283/PA 501 10/10/ 1988 47,772 6,726 14.1%
PA 283/PA 501 8/8/1989 62,038 7,092 11.4%
PA 283/PA 501 7/5/1991 2 67,669 7,965 11.8% 6.0% 0.2%
PA 283/PA 501 7/9/1992 1 69,969 8,062 11.5% 1.2% -0.2%
PA 501/PA 23 10/10/ 1985 37,800 3,836 10.1%
PA 501/PA 23 9/24/1987 2 50,539 5,477 10.8% 19.5% 0.3%
PA 501/PA 23 10/10/ 1988 1 47,772 6,728 14.1% 22.8% 3.2%
PA 501/PA 23 9/25/1990 2 37,998 3,816 10.0% -24.7% -2.0%
PA 501/PA 23 9/19/1995 5 68,977 7,551 10.9% 14.6% 0.2%
PA 501/PA 23 6/30/1988 62,750 7,415 11.8%
PA 501/PA 23 7/14/1988 28,526 3,658 12.8%
PA 501/PA 23 A verage 45,638 5,537 12.1%
PA 501/PA 23 7/9/1991 3 45,779 5,097 11.1% -2.7% -0.3%
PA 501/PA 23 7/14/1992 1 35,677 3,757 10.5% -26.3% -0.6%
PA 501/PA 23 7/29/1993 1 57,961 5,187 8.9% 38.1% -1.6%
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 26 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
Table A-2: US 30 Hi storic Traffic Growth
Span Pct Annual Change
Segment Date (years) AADT ADTT Truck Growth Truck %
PA 23/PA 462 10/10/ 1983 18,732 3,144 16.8%
PA 23/PA 462 10/10/ 1985 2 21,712 2,842 13.1% -4.9% -1.9%
PA 23/PA 462 7/21/1988 18,665 3,524 18.9%
PA 462/PA 896 10/10/ 1987 27,418 3,458 12.6%
PA 462/PA 896 9/27/1990 3 25,225 2,827 11.2% -6.5% -0.5%
PA 462/PA 896 7/19/1994 28,868 3,004 10.4%
PA 462/PA 896 7/31/1996 26,351 3,307 12.5%
PA 462/PA 896 8/2/1996 27,502 3,149 11.5%
PA 462/PA 896 A verage 2 26,927 3,228 12.0% 3.7% 0.8%
PA 896/Ronks Road 10/10/ 1985 8,400 1,042 12.4%
PA 896/Ronks Road 10/10/ 1986 1 7,872 1,306 16.6% 25.3% 4.2%
PA 896/Ronks Road 9/27/1990 4 12,034 1,618 13.4% 5.5% -0.8%
PA 896/Ronks Road 8/11/1987 18,369 2,971 16.2%
PA 896/Ronks Road 7/14/1988 1 8,333 1,476 17.7% -50.3% 1.5%
PA 896/Ronks Road 7/27/1993 5 17,207 1,460 8.5% -0.5% -4.7%
PA 896/Ronks Road 7/19/1994 1 15,032 1,337 8.9% -4.3% 0.4%
PA 896/Ronks Road 7/28/1995 1 10,640 1,204 11.3% -5.1% 2.4%
PA 896/Ronks Road 7/31/1996 13,183 1,603 12.2%
PA 896/Ronks Road 8/2/1996 14,527 1,595 11.0%
PA 896/Ronks Road A verage 1 13,855 1,599 11.5% 32.5% 0.2%
Ronks Road/PA 772 10/10/ 1983 13,700 1,314 9.6%
Ronks Road/PA 772 6/6/1985 13,000 2,732 21.0%
Ronks Road/PA 772 10/10/ 1991 8 16,288 3,289 20.2% 12.2% 1.3%
PA 772/PA 41 10/10/ 1985 10,153 1,283 12.6%
PA 772/PA 41 6/25/1991 13,125 1,725 13.1%
Fruit ville Pike/PA 283 1991 67,669 8,158 12.1%
Fruit ville Pike/PA 283 2000 9 86,317 13,782 16.0% 6.0% 0.4%
PA 340/PA 23 1991 45,779 5,032 11.0%
PA 340/PA 23 2000 9 69,160 7,618 11.0% 4.7% 0.0%
Sylvan Lane/Pequea Creek 1991 18,263 3,105 17.0%
Sylvan Lane/Pequea Creek 2000 9 23,092 3,926 17.0% 2.6% 0.0%
A verage (weighted by Span) 4.3% -0.1%
Source: PennDOT Roadway Management Information System
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 27 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
Future Corridor Conditions October 2002
Table A-3: PA 41 Hi storic Traffic Growth
Span Pct Annual Change
Segment Date (years) AADT ADTT Truck Growth Truck %
DE State Line/S R 3013 10/10/ 1990 13,737 1,786 13.0%
DE State Line/S R 3013 12/7/1999 11,250 1,350 12.0%
SR 3013/SR 3024 6/26/2001 17,340 2,081 12.0%
SR 3024/Newark Road 12/12/ 1995 11,812 1,685 14.3%
SR 3024/Newark Road 6/30/1999 15,044 2,106 14.0%
SR 3024/Newark Road 6/5/2001 2 15,145 2,120 14.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Old Baltimore Pike/SR 3035 10/10/ 1983 16,062 2,336 14.5%
Old Baltimore Pike/SR 3035 6/11/1987 15,270 2,099 13.7%
Old Baltimore Pike/SR 3035 3/1/1995 15,641 3,557 22.7%
Old Baltimore Pike/SR 3035 7/28/1998 11 17,592 4,157 23.6% 6.4% 0.9%
SR 3035/New Baltimore Pike 6/11/1987 7,635 1,049 13.7%
SR 3035/New Baltimore Pike 12/7/1999 19,196 2,687 14.0%
New Baltimore Pike/Route 1 10/10/ 1984 9,812 1,369 14.0%
New Baltimore Pike/Route 1 10/10/ 1985 1 11,300 2,330 20.6% 70.2% 6.7%
New Baltimore Pike/Route 1 10/10/ 1986 1 9,489 1,793 18.9% -23.0% -1.7%
New Baltimore Pike/Route 1 10/10/ 1987 1 9,641 1,494 15.5% -16.7% -3.4%
New Baltimore Pike/Route 1 10/10/ 1990 1 15,406 2,371 15.4% 58.7% -0.1%
New Baltimore Pike/Route 1 6/1/1993 11,543 1,731 15.0%
New Baltimore Pike/Route 1 7/27/1995 2 11,403 1,710 15.0% -0.6% 0.0%
New Baltimore Pike/Route 1 5/20/1997 13,065 1,960 15.0%
New Baltimore Pike/Route 1 12/7/1999 13,189 1,978 15.0%
New Baltimore Pike/Route 1 8/22/2000 5 14,042 2,106 15.0% 4.3% 0.0%
SR 372/Simontown Road 9/6/1990 11,091 2,775 25.0%
SR 372/Simontown Road 6/3/1993 11,550 2,888 25.0%
SR 372/Simontown Road 7/19/1995 2 11,741 2,935 25.0% 0.8% 0.0%
SR 372/Simontown Road 7/21/1998 3 13,826 3,457 25.0% 5.6% 0.0%
SR 372/Simontown Road 7/24/2001 3 7,601 1,900 25.0% -18.1% 0.0%
SR 2025/Strasburg Road 10/10/ 1982 9,203 1,966 21.4%
SR 2025/Strasburg Road 11/19/ 1987 5 14,212 2,643 18.6% 3.3% -0.3%
SR 2025/Strasburg Road 5/26/1999 17,457 3,317 19.0%
PA 741/Newport Road 1991 16,059 3,051 19.0%
PA 741/Newport Road 2000 9 17,597 3,343 19.0% 1.0% 0.0%
A verage (weighted by Span) 3.7% 0.2%
Source: PennDOT Roadway Management Information System
Wilmington-Harrisburg Freight Study 28 Wilbur Smith Associates
Technical Report 2 Reebie Associates
Martin Associates
