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Forecast Journal Wednesday by kimbrozic

VIEWS: 6 PAGES: 7

									Forecast Journal Wednesday

I am looking at a 16 frame water vapor image on the eWall, and it appears as though dry
air above 15,000 feet is advancing over Florida.


NGM FOUS DATA
211
FOUE63 KWNO    041200
OUTPUT FROM    NGM 12Z OCT 04 06
TTPTTR1R2R3    VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5          TTPTTR1R2R3     VVVLI   PSDDFF   HHT1T3T5
CAE//742235    00804 232707 69191713          SAV//782231     -0601   230205   70221713
06000472731    02403 213502 71251813          06000532824     00903   210805   72251713
12000433234    01702 192108 72261913          12000543325     -0802   201506   71251713
18000473641    -0302 192710 72261913          18000552730     -2003   190403   72241814
24000494050    02201 173108 72251812          24000583630     01103   191703   71231713
30000475154    -0400 172306 71271910          30000483637     -2302   182802   72261813
36000465666    01399 142612 72272011          36000473841     02001   152205   73271913
42032516565    02498 143310 70261910          42000504960     -0701   152313   71261911
48004806847    01398 140415 66191709          48001526169     -0599   132611   70251911
MIA//673637    -0899 170517 75251913          LAL//653221     -1301   190614   73241813
06000583223    -1499 160519 75261814          06000463616     02401   180511   73271912
12000623522    -1399 150517 75261814          12000523222     -0801   180516   73261814
18000582916    01501 150619 75251815          18000742918     00203   180618   73221514
24000613018    -0901 140518 74251716          24000752915     -0803   170415   72211514
30002593012    -0801 150618 74251814          30000543117     -0403   170510   74251714
36000622815    00400 130615 75251815          36000543516     -0402   160610   73251813
42000662820    -0300 150515 74251715          42000622923     -0503   160712   73241714
48000732836    -1000 140610 74241615          48000712928     00003   160806   72221513
TLH//842928    00499 221011 72221911          3J2//733921     -1998   210712   70231613
06000372524    -1206 200506 73261912          06000723627     -2400   200717   71231513
12000413025    -1704 200508 72271912          12000653324     -1402   190711   70231513
18000482427    01704 190713 74261914          18000612928     -3604   190511   71231513
24000603122    00404 191107 72241712          24000613425     -1504   180608   69231512
30000473129    -4504 180406 73261814          30000573233     -2604   180505   71231613
36000473538    01201 172802 73271913          36000542930     00504   151005   72241613
42000473950    -0102 162901 74271912          42000523238     -1104   162603   71241713
48000495241    -0401 152806 72261912          48000553756     00002   152404   70241712

This FOUS predicts that there will be no rainfall for the next forecast period. Vertical
velocities are negative, perhaps suggesting sinking air. The lifted index is positive.
Relative humidities are mostly in the 50s and 60s, which means that cloud cover should
be spotty if there is any at all. Winds should ease up a bit from yesterday. Temps will
not be as high as they were yesterday either (looking at temps in the lowest layer but not
at the surface, but these are lower than they were yesterday).

Perhaps a sea breeze will set up, given that there will be scattered to few clouds.

Please note this information is preliminary and subject to revision. Official
and certified climatic data can be accessed at the National Climatic Data
Center (NCDC) (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html).
 000
 CDUS42 KMLB 040847
 CLIMCO


 CLIMATE REPORT
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE
 445 AM EDT WED OCT 4 2006

 ...................................

 ...THE ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 3
2006...

 CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1971 TO 2000
 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1944 TO 2006

 WEATHER ITEM      OBSERVED TIME    RECORD YEAR NORMAL
DEPARTURE LAST
                    VALUE   (LST)   VALUE        VALUE   FROM
YEAR
                                                         NORMAL

...........................................................
.......
 TEMPERATURE (F)
  YESTERDAY
   MAXIMUM         90   1241 PM 94     1971 88       2
89
   MINIMUM         71    646 AM 57     1984 69       2
74
   AVERAGE         81                        78      3
82

 PRECIPITATION (IN)
   YESTERDAY        0.01             1.38 1985    0.13    -0.12
0.40
   MONTH TO DATE    0.01                          0.40    -0.39
1.07
   SINCE SEP 1      4.10                          6.16    -2.06
2.74
   SINCE JAN 1     29.27                         41.39 -12.12
48.74

 SNOWFALL (IN)
   YESTERDAY          0.0
   MONTH TO DATE      0.0
    SINCE JUL 1     0.0

 DEGREE DAYS
  HEATING
   YESTERDAY        0                             0        0
0
    MONTH TO DATE   0                             0        0
0
    SINCE SEP 1     0                             0        0
0
    SINCE JUL 1     0                             0        0
0

  COOLING
   YESTERDAY       16                            13        3
17
   MONTH TO DATE   45                            40        5
53
   SINCE SEP 1    533                           524        9
576
   SINCE JAN 1   3046                          2916    130
2977

...........................................................
.......

 WIND (MPH)
   HIGHEST WIND SPEED      22     HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION       NE
(60)
   HIGHEST GUST SPEED      24     HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION       NE
(60)
   AVERAGE WIND SPEED       8.0

 SKY COVER
   AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.5

 WEATHER CONDITIONS
  THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.
   LIGHT RAIN

 RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
  HIGHEST    84           400 AM
  LOWEST     45          1200 PM
  AVERAGE    65
 ..........................................................

 THE ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                                 NORMAL      RECORD          YEAR
  MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)          87          94            1986
  MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)          68          58            1974

 SUNRISE AND SUNSET
 OCTOBER 4 2006.......SUNRISE             720 AM EDT         SUNSET      708
PM EDT
 OCTOBER 5 2006.......SUNRISE             720 AM EDT         SUNSET      707
PM EDT

 -    INDICATES   NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
 R    INDICATES   RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
 MM   INDICATES   DATA IS MISSING.
 T    INDICATES   TRACE AMOUNT.




NAM FOUS

927
FOUS63 KWNO   040600
OUTPUT FROM   NAM 06Z OCT 04 06
TTPTTR1R2R3   VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5   TTPTTR1R2R3   VVVLI   PSDDFF   HHT1T3T5
CAE//662025   -0502 231709 68211712   SAV//772020   -2502   231105   69211712
06000722229   -0806 212809 69191612   06000842621   -1703   213608   69191611
12000552838   00501 210000 70261712   12000513023   -2005   210707   70251712
18000533222   00501 192006 70261813   18000542925   -1506   191307   70231912
24000553729   00201 182314 70231912   24000622922   -1504   190000   69221912
30000575228   -0901 182714 69211911   30000523219   -1406   193207   69211912
36000464332   -1199 170101 71281912   36000453021   -0502   170302   71271912
42000464917   00698 142304 70282012   42000554125   01101   161810   71252012
48000585933   00198 142317 69242011   48000554223   -1502   152213   70232112
MIA//724128   -1496 170617 74261911   LAL//823730   -0697   200614   72231911
06000752929   -0198 170616 73251811   06000843018   01501   190713   71222011
12000691723   -0299 150515 73262014   12000622813   -1000   180613   72261713
18000834021   -0596 140419 73251811   18000662711   -1203   170615   72241513
24000813434   -0897 140415 73251911   24000823713   -1901   170511   72221711
30000873025   -0997 140409 73241811   30000862514   -1503   170413   71211612
36000773134   -0498 140316 73261712   36000573413   00001   160612   72271811
42007914632   -0296 130513 74251912   42000662914   -0900   150714   72251712
48002873434   -1596 130610 74251911   48000822213   -0901   150512   72221912
TLH//763120   -2400   211014   71231912   3J2//643119   00001   210813   69241512
06000913415   00698   210710   70211710   06000764215   -1500   190711   69231512
12000382116   02108   200308   71261812   12000723617   -1799   200615   69241610
18000332222   -1008   180608   72271912   18000682923   01101   190512   70241612
24000652717   -0102   181109   71231811   24000783222   -1298   170710   70241712
30000782816   -0202   180706   70211811   30000643414   -1900   180311   68241711
36000492721   -2603   170407   72271813   36000702915   -0700   170511   70241811
42000473117   00301   160102   72282012   42000712814   -0799   160806   70241911
48000503621   -1302   163103   71262013   48000753317   -0198   153302   70241912


This FOUS is from 06z today and it also calls for no precipitation
during the period. Again, there is negative vertical velocity and
sinking air. There is no lift. Winds on this model are stronger and
temps slightly higher than on the NGM.


672
FOUS63 KWNO   041800
OUTPUT FROM   NAM 18Z OCT 04 06
TTPTTR1R2R3   VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5       TTPTTR1R2R3   VVVLI   PSDDFF   HHT1T3T5
CAE//462036   -0404 222803 70261714       SAV//612820   -1301   220905   70251712
06000452128   00304 191709 71251814       06000772221   -1302   191207   70231813
12000622332   00605 192215 70211814       12000842221   -0301   191404   70221913
18000743232   -1403 192616 69201813       18000822223   00203   193106   70201912
24000493735   -2800 171502 70271911       24000422526   00005   180404   71271912
30000484532   -0999 152310 70271912       30000552222   -0902   151809   71252113
36000545246   00801 142217 69241911       36000602927   -0802   162112   70231912
42003738145   06899 133311 67201810       42000814247   -0101   152515   69212011
48001873409   02104 180218 62161108       48000536028   01497   143110   69281910
MIA//613024   02297 160614 74281913       LAL//593512   -6597   180712   73281911
06000844014   00095 140419 74251911       06000692309   -1701   180618   72241713
12001863921   -0195 150514 73251911       12000812910   -0602   180611   72221812
18000832115   -1799 140111 73231913       18000812710   00401   170316   72211812
24007743420   -1198 140516 73261912       24000552911   00200   160614   73271912
30000793523   -0497 130514 74251812       30000632516   00700   150714   73251811
36000763230   -0798 130611 73251712       36000823015   -0699   150612   72231812
42000803034   00199 140309 73241612       42000852312   -0401   160508   71211811
48000794524   00596 140309 74261912       48000502615   -2001   150506   72271812
TLH//372415   02805 210607 71271813       3J2//673715   -2500   210715   69241512
06000312214   -1108 180510 72282012       06000673317   -0502   190515   70241613
12000722518   -0900 191211 71222012       12001874721   -3097   180812   71241710
18000842217   -1203 191007 71211912       18000733121   -1399   180412   70241711
24000442423   -0203 180506 72271912       24000753417   00099   180611   70251712
30000362219   -1204 150304 73282112       30000753018   -0699   160506   71251812
36000422618   00504 160902 72262012       36000782321   00898   150502   71241911
42000592829   -0503 162403 71231912       42000823023   01298   153204   69241811
48000484422   -0200 162803 71282012       48000823231   -1096   152407   69241812

Vertical velocity has changed, but not much else



MOS FORECASTS

GFS MOS
GFS MOS FORECASTS


 KMCO    GFS MOS GUIDANCE      10/04/2006         0600 UTC
 DT /OCT    4      /OCT    5                         /OCT    6               /
 HR   12 15 18 21 00 03 06     09 12    15 18     21 00 03 06    09 12 15 18 00 06
 X/N               89             69                 89             71       91
 TMP 71 83 86 85 78 74 71      70 71    83   87   86 79 75 73    72 73 84 88 80 72
 DPT 67 67 64 64 66 67 68      68 69    69   66   66 68 70 70    70 70 70 67 68 69
 CLD SC FW SC SC SC CL CL      CL FW    SC   SC   SC FW CL CL    CL CL FW FW FW CL
 WDR 04 07 07 06 06 05 02      02 03    06   07   07 06 05 03    03 03 06 06 07 05
 WSP 06 12 12 15 10 07 06      06 06    11   12   14 09 06 04    04 04 07 09 07 02
 P06          2     2      0       3          1       0      2       4     5 2 3
 P12                2              3                  1              9        5
 Q06          0     0      0       0         0        0      0       0     0 0 0
 Q12                0              0                  0              0         0
 T06       0/15 0/ 1 0/ 0       0/ 0     0/15      4/ 3 2/ 0      0/ 0  3/15 2/ 0
 T12                    0/ 1             0/15             4/ 3          3/15 7/ 3
 CIG   8 8 8 8 8 8 8            8   8    8 8       8 8 8 8       8   8 8 8 8 8
 VIS   7 7 7 7 7 7 7            7   7    7 7       7 7 7 7       7   7 7 7 7 7
 OBV   N N N N N N N            N   N    N N       N N N N       N   N N N N N


ETA MOS


Eta MOS FORECASTS (Old Data)


 KMCO    ETA MOS GUIDANCE    10/04/2006           0000 UTC
 DT /OCT    4             /OCT    5                        /OCT    6              /
 HR   06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12            15 18 21 00 03 06      09 12 18 00
 X/N                      85          67                   86               65    88
 TMP 71 69 69 80 83 81 74 71 69 68 69             80 84 83 76 72 68      66 66 86 78
 DPT 67 65 65 66 63 63 65 65 65 64 65             67 66 66 68 67 66      65 65 66 69
 CLD FW FW FW SC SC SC FW CL FW CL CL             FW SC SC CL CL CL      CL CL FW CL
 WDR 04 05 03 04 06 05 05 04 02 01 36             04 05 06 05 04 01      36 02 06 09
 WSP 05 04 04 10 13 13 11 06 05 04 06             10 14 12 09 05 03      02 03 07 05
 P06          2     2      3      2     3             7     6      5         2 2 2
 P12                       3            8                  11                9      2
 Q06          0     0      0      0     0             0     0      0         0 0 0
 Q12                       0            0                   0                0      0
 T06       0/ 0 3/14 0/ 1 0/ 0 0/ 0                2/16 3/ 2 0/ 0         1/ 0999/99
 T12             3/14          0/ 1                2/16         5/ 2       999/99
 CIG   8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8                       8 8 8 8 8 8            8 8 8 8
 VIS   7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7                       7 7 7 7 7 7            7 7 7 7
 OBV   N N N N N N N N N N N                       N N N N N N            N N N


Eta MOS FORECASTS


 KMCO    ETA MOS GUIDANCE      10/04/2006 1200 UTC
 DT /OCT    4/OCT   5                   /OCT  6                             /OCT   7
 HR    18 21 00 03 06 09 12   15 18 21 00       03 06 09 12   15 18 21 00 06 12
 N/X                     65            84                65            89    67
 TMP   83 82 75 71 69 67 67   78 83 81 75       72 69 67 67   81 86 86 77 69 69
 DPT   62 62 64 65 65 64 64   64 62 63 65       67 67 65 65   66 63 63 66 69 69
 CLD   SC SC FW CL FW CL FW   FW SC FW FW       FW CL CL CL   FW FW FW CL CL CL
 WDR   07 07 05 03 02 01 02   05 06 04 05       03 03 01 01   04 03 03 10 19 33
 WSP   14 13 10 07 06 05 06   10 10 10 08       05 03 03 02   05 06 07 06 02 03
 P06          3     4     5       3     2           2     9       1     5 6 10
 P12                      5             3                12             6    15
 Q06          0     0     0       0     0           0     0       0     0 0 0
 Q12                      0             0                 0             0     0
 T06       0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0      0/13 0/ 0         3/ 0 0/ 0     0/13 3/ 0999/99
 T12             0/ 0          0/13              3/ 0          0/13   999/99
 CIG    8 8 8 8 8 8 8          8 8 8 8           8 8 8 8       8 8 8 8 8 8
 VIS    7 7 7 7 7 7 7          7 7 7 7           7 7 7 7       7 7 7 7 7 6
 OBV    N N N N N N N          N N N N           N N N N       N N N N N BR



NGM MOS




NGM MOS FORECASTS


 MCO S        NGM MOS GUIDANCE     10/04/06      1200 UTC
 DAY /OCT      4 /OCT     5                     /OCT   6                  /
 HOUR   18    21 00 03 06 09 12    15 18     21 00 03 06 09 12   15 18 21 00
 MN/MX                       68                 86          67            88
 TEMP   83    83 75 72 70 69 69    80   84   83 76 72 69 68 69   81 85 85 77
 DEWPT 62     62 64 66 65 65 65    67   65   65 66 67 66 66 67   68 65 65 67
 CLDS   SC    SC SC SC SC SC SC    SC   SC   SC SC CL CL CL CL   SC SC SC CL
 WDIR   06    06 04 03 01 35 36    03   05   04 04 01 36 33 34   35 35 02 03
 WSPD   11    11 06 06 07 06 05    09   10   08 05 04 03 02 02   04 04 06 04
 POP06             2      2    3         1       2     0     1       4      7
 POP12                         4                 2           1              9
 QPF            0/     0/   0/0      0/        0/0   0/    0/0     0/    0/0
 TSV06        18/ 0 17/ 0 32/ 0    37/ 0     21/ 3 17/ 1 22/ 1   26/ 0 19/ 0
 TSV12               20/ 0         39/ 0           27/ 3         31/ 1
 CIG      7    7 7 7 7 7 7          7 7       7 7      7     7
 VIS      5    5 5 5 5 5 5          5 5       5 5      5     5
 OBVIS    N    N N N N N N          N N       N N      N     N


Grid Interpolations:

I hope to be able to use the Delta Method today

								
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