California Dreamin� A Forecast for Alternative Fuels

California Dreamin’ A Forecast for Alternative Fuels Paul Wuebben Clean Fuels Officer South Coast Air Quality Management District Presented at: Alternative Fuels and Vehicles National Conference & Expo Anaheim, CA April 2, 2007 Current AFV Market Segments   NG LD fleet vehicles (Honda Civic) HD fleet vehicles     Electric Drivetrains:   CNG and LNG buses LNG Refuse Trucks Propane & NG port equipment Forklifts Luxury sport cars (Tesla)   Hybrids E-85 FFV’s AFV Deployment Recent Facts  (as of 3-6-07)    Of the 15 original European Union member nations, only Britain and Sweden are on track to meet emission targets under the Kyoto Protocol. The global carbon market was worth $21.5 billion in the first nine months of 2006, up from $11 billion China is on track to surpass the United States as the world's leading producer of CO2 in 2009. Last year: average temperature for the continental U.S. was the warmest on record…again… Emerging Key Issues    Investment in fuel import capacity for conventional fuels v.s. sustainable fuels The “Hybrid Era” has started “Academy Award” cycle to alt fuel favorites?   Q: Who was last year’s “best supporting actor”? A: Hydrogen?     Oil prices volatility → growing role of OPEC Growing consumer readiness to plugging in Refiners have fully embraced RFS for the first time LCFS sets a new cap for carbon in the fuel chain Other Important Trends?           The Plug-in hybrid FFV technology = game changer? Growth in congestion will add value to idle shut off IPO investment is not a complete fuel strategy Agility will be the key during the 20 year transition to post-gasoline dominance Need to rethink Multimedia Review Process for quicker screening Boutique fuels are growing not diminishing Luxury EV market not sufficient to drive battery technology NG engine families must be expanded Big Science breakthroughs needed… Infrastructure readiness is key… Interesting Trend to Watch    Toyota FFV Plug in? GM E-Volt platform Hitachi plans 3,000 FC’s per month production line  DMFC…replacing Li Ion batteries…     Iogen + Novozyme cellulosic pilot plants A123 lithium batteries in 2nd gen Tesla NG engines < 0.2 NOx HD Higher profile Phill marketing? Imagine if All Vehicles Had:     Hybrid electric drive trains Plug-in capability Renewable fuel flexibility (e.g., E-85 FFV’s) Recharged solely with renewable power  Wind, Solar, etc.    Near zero net added carbon per mile Liquid fuel utility Agility to run on $10-15 / gal. gasoline if needed 90% Diversion to Renewable Electricity with Plug-in Technology 2 x Fuel Economy Increase with Aggressive Hybrid Drivetrains 30% 30% 40 – 50 mpg CAFE 35 to 45 B Gals of Cellulosic Ethanol With Enzyme Break-thrus 30% Ethanol Technical Barriers + Challenges 1. Plant cell wall recalcitrance  Deconstruct secondary cell wall polysaccharides to fermentable sugars at high yield and low cost (low energy input) 2. Carbohydrate heterogeneity  Ferment all biomass sugars to ethanol at high yield, i.e., the hexoses glucose, galactose, fructose and mannose; and the pentose arabinose and xylose. 3. Process development/integration/qualification  Test various process options rapidly and cost effectively, producing high quality data (back up by high mass balance closures!) Source: Jim McMillan, NREL, AAAS Meeting, 2-16-07, 303 384-6861 METI Expects Innovative Batteries No sooner than 2030 - We need them sooner! Li I Battery Performance Tradoffs 84.5 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 U1 U24 Specific Energy - Wh / kg 84 83.5 83 82.5 82 81.5 81 Energy Density - Wh / liter Specific Energy (Wh / kg) Energy Density (Wh / liter) Valence 18650 Cell Options Source: A. Perasan, NREL, 2006 Li Ion Battery Power & Energy Tradeoffs 120 1200 1000 800 600 400 Energy Density 100 (Wh / kg) 60 40 20 0 VL41M VL30P W / kg 80 Power Density P/E = 6 P/E = 11.4 200 0 Energy Density (Wh / kg) Power Density (W / kg) Saft Li Ion Battery Types P / E ratio = W / Wh To Compete with the Prius… The “Ideal” Polarization Curve is needed Li Ion Battery with 0% SOC… Choosing the Right Lithium Ion Chemistry R & D Focus is Very Hard… Suzuki Motors Wheelchair “MIO” 25 miles on 4 liters of methanol + large Li Ion secondary battery And, yes, there is a future for H2 vehicles… The Ultimate Driver? Climate Change Teleconnections and Feedbacks Tibetan Albedo Change? Bistability of Saharan Vegetation Bistability / Collapse of Amazonian Forest? Bodele Dust Supply Change? Indian Monsoon Transformation ENSO Triggering Reduced Performance of Marine Carbon Pump Teleconnections and Feedbacks Instability of Greenland Ice Sheet? Atlantic Deep Water Formation Instability of Methane Clathrates Tibetan Albedo Change? Bistability of Saharan Vegetation Bistability / Collapse of Amazonian Forest? Bodele Dust Supply Change? Indian Monsoon Transformation ENSO Triggering Reduced Performance of Marine Carbon Pump Southern Ocean Upwelling / Circumpolar Deep Water Formation Instability of West Antarctic Ice Sheet? Runaway Greenhouse Dynamics? Instability of West Antarctic Ice Instability of Sheet? Greenland Ice Sheet? Atlantic Deep Tibetan Water Formation Albedo Change? Tibetan Albedo Change? Bistability of Saharan Anthropogenic Vegetation Greenhouse Gas Southern Ocean Upwelling / Circumpolar Deep Water Formation Bodele Emissions Dust Bistability / Supply Change? Collapse of Reduced Amazonian Performance Forest? of Marine Carbon Pump Atlantic Deep Water Formation Reduced Performance Indian of Marine Monsoon Carbon Pump Transformation Instability of Greenland Ice Sheet? ENSO Triggering Bistability of Saharan Vegetation Bodele Dust Southern Ocean Upwelling / Supply Change? Circumpolar Deep Water Formation ENSO Triggering Instability of West Antarctic Ice Sheet? Carbon Intensity of Alternative Fuels 25 20 15 10 5 0 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 C N G LN G D e E Pr od i 4 Highest Carbon Density Fuels FT Bi l -D ie se l R FG 3 -1 00 10 0 op an M E- U LS D M es e Pounds CO2 per MMBTU Grams Carbon per MJ