Q3. Service and market forecast for B3G

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Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting and future work pertaining to Spectrum calculation methodology Hitoshi Yoshino, ARIB WP8F Preparation Group 3rd CJK B3G Meeting July 6th, 2004 Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting(1) • Two working documents were developed; 1) Elements to be used for the development of IMT.ESTIMATE (Doc.8F/TEMP/120Rev.1), which proposes the following process; - Market segment analysis, - Radio Access Technique identification, - Traffic distribution among RAT, - Spectrum requirement estimation, 2) Working document towards Methodology for Calculation of spectrum requirement (Doc.8F/TEMP/123), which describes; - Guidelines for methodology to be developed (incl. generic flow chart), - Limitations of the existing Rec. M.1390 methodology, - (Proposed) detailed calculation methodology. Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting(2) 1) Elements to be used for the development of IMT.ESTIMATE (Doc.8F/120R1); Market Segments Access Techniques •Pre IMT Cellular Mobile Pre IMT •Terrestrial Component •Satellite Component •Enhanced IMT-2000 •New Mobile Access •MSS Nomadic a) Considers Various market segments, Mobile Market Public Communication Mobile IMT-2000 b) Identifies Access Techniques, taking into account the market segments, Distribution •RLAN Hot Spots •New Nomadic Access / Local Area Wireless Access capabilities •Digital broadcast •BSS •RLAN •cordless devices •short-range devices •[UWB] FWA Private / home environment Non public market Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting(3) 1) Elements to be used for the development of IMT.ESTIMATE (Doc.8F/120R1); c) Proposes “only elements of mobile and nomadic communication technology having bi-directional capabilities shall be considered”, as for spectrum requirements in the context of WRC-07 A.I. 1.4, Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting(4) 1) Elements to be used for the development of IMT.ESTIMATE (Doc.8F/120R1); d) Concludes that traffic volume shall be considered for the following systems; 1) Terrestrial cellular mobile - pre-IMT-2000 cellular, - Terrestrial-IMT-2000, - Enhanced ITM-2000, and - New Mobile Access capabilities, Market of Mobile Communication Distribute Traffic amongst Market Segments Market Segmentation Features Communication •Cellular Mobile •Nomadic •Mobile Satellite Systems Distribution Others 2) Terrestrial Nomadic - R-LAN hot spots, - New Nomadic/Local Area Wireless Access capabilities, Cellular Mobile •Pre-IMT Cellular Mobile •Terrestrial IMT-2000 •Enhanced IMT-2000 •New Mobile Access Distribute Traffic amongst RATs RAT Distinguishing Features Short Range •RLAN Hot Spots •New Nomadic Access / Local Area Wireless Access capabilities Satellite •IMT-2000 Satellite Component and its evolution •MSS 3) Satellite Applications Traffic Volume of RATs - IMT-2000 Satellite component and its evolution, - MSS. Distribution of Traffic amongst RATs Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting(5) 1) Elements to be used for the development of IMT.ESTIMATE (Doc.8F/120R1); 5) Identifies IMT-relevant Radio Access Techniques (RAT), which fall into IMT2000 relevant segments, within ITU-R Rec. M.1645 (Framework Rec.) ; 1) IMT-2000 terrestrial component, 2) IMT-2000 satellite component, 3) Enhancements of IMT-2000, 4) Nomadic public RLAN, 5) New Mobile Radio Access Capabilities, 6) New Nomadic/Local Area Wireless Access Capabilities. 6) The following distinguishing feature should be considered in order to determine which RAT is suitable or not for a specific service type or applications; 1) Radio Frequency bands, 2) Max cell size/range, 3) Max/Min transmit power, 4) Min sensitivity, 5) Error robustness, 6) Max user density per give spectrum, 7) Target deployment env.(coverage), 8) mobility, 9) vertical HO support, 10) channel char. and QoS, 11) Duplex scheme, 12) NW topology, 13) multicast support, 14) current commercial footprint Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting(6) 1) Elements to be used for the development of IMT.ESTIMATE (Doc.8F/120R1); 7) Prposes that IMT-relevant Radio Access Techniques (RAT), should be considered for Spectrum Requirement Estimation; Traffic Volume of RATs Identify IMT relevant Traffic Volume Vision on IMT-2000 and Systems Beyond IMT-2000 IMT-2000 and its Enhancements (Terrestrial and Satellite) New Mobile Access Capabilities New Nomadic Access / Local Area Wireless Access Capabilities IMT relevant Traffic Volume Spectrum Requirement Estimation IMT-2000 identified Bands Spectrum for Future Development of IMT-2000 and Systems Beyond IMT-2000 Candidate Bands Spectrum Requirement Estimation Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting(7) 2) Working document towards Methodology for Calculation of spectrum requirement (Doc.8F/TEMP/123), 1. Definitions a) Services, b) Service environments, c) Radio environments, d) Radio Access Technique 5.3 Generic flow chart This section was revised. RAT #2 2. Analyze the collected market data 3. Compute traffic demand by service environment and services 4. Distribute traffic among Radio Access Techniques Determine distribution coefficients , which distribute traffic to different RAT according to possible deployment scenarios, by using Monte-Carlo based simulations, if necessary RAT #1 5. Compute spectrum requirement per RAT a) Distribute traffic within RAT b) Determine system capacity required to carry traffic RAT #3 6. Apply any additional weighting factors Determine distribution coefficients Rk,r,n , which distribute traffic within RAT according to the characteristics of possible RAT group, by using MonteCarlo based simulations, if necessary 7. Spectrum requirements for RAT #1 Deterministic approach 8. Aggregate spectrum 8.Employ requirements Monte-Carlo approach, if necessary weighting factors 9.Spectrum requirements Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting(8) 2) Working document towards Methodology for Calculation of spectrum requirement (Doc.8F/TEMP/123), 5.4 Definitions; this section was revised; - Service category, - Service type 1) Speech, 2) Low rate Data & low multimedia, 3) Medium multimedia, 4) high multimedia, 5) super high multimedia), - Traffic class (CBR, VBR, ABR, UBR) - Service environment : the idea of reduction was included. - Service usage patterns 1) Home, 2) Office, 3)Public area, 4) Wide area, - Teledensity 1) Dense urban, 2) Urban, 3) Sub-urban, 4) Rural, 5) Remote Service environments Service environment consists of Service Usage patterns and Teledensity. The number of the environments can be reduced, taking into account their commonality. 1) Service Usage Patterns: • • • • • • • • • Home Office, Public Area, and Wide Area Dense urban, Urban, Sub-urban, Rural Remote Radio Environments Macro-cell 2) Teledensity: Micro-cell Pico-cell Service environment (combination of service usage pattern and topographic area, blue plain) Urban Dense urban Rural Sub-urban Hot spot Wide area Home Office Public area Service Usage Patterns Service usage patterns Fig. 1 Environment Space ic ph ra og p s To rea A Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting(9) 2) Working document towards Methodology for Calculation of spectrum requirement (Doc.8F/TEMP/123), 5.4 Definitions (continued); - Radio environment, 1) Macro cell, 2) Micro cell, 3) Pico cell, 4) hot spot, 5) Local area cell, 6) Broadcast cell, 7) Satellite area cell, - RATG : the idea of RAT group was included. - Group 1: IMT-2000 and its enhancements (incl. satellite) - Group 2: Systems beyond IMT-2000 RATs, - Group 3: pre IMT-2000, - Group 4: Existing local area RLAN technologies, - Group 5: Digital broadcasting services, Radio environments Service environments can be defined as areas exhibiting common propagation conditions. - According to the general principles and guidelines for spectrum calculation methodology, the methodology should have flexibility to handle different combinations of Radio Access Techniques (RATs). - Each service environment can be supported by multiple RATs as shown below; • • • • Hotspots, Pico cell, Macro cell, and Micro cell Service environments SE#1 Adu Bdu Cdu Au SE#2 Bu Cu Asu SE#3 Bsu Csu SE#4 Ar Br Cr Traffic Radio Access Techniques RAT #1 Adu Au Asu Ar RAT #2 Bdu Bu Bsu Br RAT #3 Cdu Cu Csu Cr Traffic Radio environments within RAT Pico cell Macro cell Micro cell Macro cell Hot spot Pico Micro cell cell Macro cell Hot spot Pico cell Micro cell Hot spot Traffic Spectrum per RAT Spectrum Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting(10) 2) Working document towards Methodology for Calculation of spectrum requirement (Doc.8F/TEMP/123), 5.6 Analyse the collected market data, and 5.6 Compute traffic demand by service environment and services; The process on how to analyse the collected market data and how to compute traffic demand, were included and explained by using an example scenario. A possible steps to get traffic demands The following would be a process to get traffic demands; 1) Define service categories (Q2 in “service view doc.”) and produce categorization table (shown as table 1, later) 2) Service and Market forecast (Q3 in “service view doc.”) a) forecast future applications with service scenarios b) their functionality – what are future applications – (Q.3.1), c) their service environment(s), d) their market scale, in association with time scale (Q.3.2) e) their deployment scenario, (Q.3.2) f) possible enablers and requirements (system capabilities), g) overall requirements, h) possible RAT(s) to support the capabilities, i) preliminary traffic forecast (Q.3.3) The above items should be provided by Answers to Q3s in service view document 3) Mapping the applications onto service categories (table 1) 4) Calculate traffic demands on a service env. by service env. basis, Service categorization TABLE 1 Mapping table using service categorization Traffic class Service types CBR Realtime VBR Non realtime With minimum rate guarantee ABR Without any gurantees UBR Speech & SMS (<16kbps) Multimedia & Low rate data (<144kbps) Medium Multimedia (<2Mbps) High multimedia (<30 Mbps) Super High Multimedia (30 Mbps to 100M/1G bps) Analyzing the collected market data (1) Possible answer example to the questionnaires in Service View Document. - Take the application example (3) in “Service Perspective on systems beyond IMT-2000”, ITU-R WP8F Workshop on Services and Market Aspects, Oct. 2003, for an example, (the next slide) (http://www.itu.int/ITU-R/study-groups/rsg8/rwp8f/workshop-edinburgh/index.asp) Analyzing the collected market data (2) Application examples – Service Scenario  Mobile Town Monitoring Systems (High data rate, huge number of terminals) - Scene: Urban town, Individual terminal linking with a town monitoring system - Enablers and their requirements: 1) Embedded mobile terminal: Town monitor: < 1 kbps, < 1 sec. Video phone: < 1Mbps, 50 – 100 msec File transfer: (3D video file) < 1 – 45 Mbps, < 2 sec. * Terminal density: 2 – 3 units/ 10 m 2 Mobile Town Monitoring System - Overall requirement: Data rate: < 45 Mbps, Latency: 50 msec. Analyzing the collected market data (3) - The following example answer may be obtained from the service scenario example; (the next two slides) Analyzing the collected market data (4) - Answer example (1/2) 1. Example: Mobile Town Monitoring Systems 2. Functionality: Town information monitoring (e.g. current state of restaurants or parking lots available), reservation (e.g. restaurant), video phone, and file transfer 3. Service environment: - Usage Scenario: In Public area or wide area, individual terminal is linking with a town monitoring system. - Mobility: Low (less than 4 km/h) or HIGH (less than 100 km/h) 4. Market scale This service will start at around 2010. Its deployment area rapidly increase within 2 to 3 years are expected, particularly urban area. Around 2015, it will widely be pervasive in urban city in this country. Expected customers are forecasted XXX users/km2 (2010), YYY users/km2 (2015) and ZZZ users/km2 (2020) , Terminal density in dense urban area: 2 – 3 units /10 m2, Analyzing the collected market data (5) - Answer example (2/2) 5. Deployment scenario: Mainly deployed by hotspots and pico cells, 6. Possible enablers: Mobile video terminal embedded, Town monitor: < 1 kbps (bit rate), < 1 sec. (latency), Video phone: < 1 Mbps (bit rate), < 50-100 m sec. (latency), File transfer (3D video catalogue): < 1-45 Mbps (bit rate), < 2 sec. (latency), 7. Overall requirements: Data rate: <45 Mbps, Latency: 50 m sec. 8. Possible RATs: Nomadic/Local Area Wireless access, and New Mobile Access, Analyzing the collected market data (6) Determine potential applications and their requirements IMT-2000 Systems beyond IMT-2000 - Key components analysis Service categories Examples Voice Video phone) IM, e-mail Video mail Packet mobile broadcasting Intranet access 3-D video communication Ambient communication Hologram video communication Peripheral nerve The info five senses Brain – brain Remote control Existing services Major requirements of network infrastructure E-E transmission delay Terminal Bit rate / Connection delay density 100 ms/ < 2 s ~ 64 Kb/s - 64 Kb/s~1Mb/s 50ms~100ms/ < 2 s - ~1 Kb/s - ~1Mb/s - < 1 s* / < 2 s (* : Delay between server - and end terminal) ~10 Mb/s - 1Mb/s~45 Mb/s 100 ms / < 2 s - 50Mb/s~1Gb/s 500Mb/s~ 30Gb/s 1Mb/s~ 100Mb/s ~2Tb/s ~10Mb/s 50ms~100ms/ < 2 s - Reality 100 ms /less than 2 s ≒ 50 ms / ≒ 50 ms 50 ms~/50 ms~ - - Bioinformatio n Virtual alter ego quasi alwa ys-on - - Tele-existence Control of home appliances ~10Mb/s - - 1ms~50ms /10ms~50ms -/- -/- ~20 / 10m2 ~20 / 10m2 ~1000 / 2 Ubiquitous Ubiquitous directory service Analyzing the collected market data (7) Mapping the application onto categories Traffic class Service types CBR Realtime VBR Non realtime With minimum rate guarantee ABR Without any gurantees Unit: Mbit/s/km2 UBR Speech & SMS (<16kbps) Voice Low data transmission for restaurant reservation in Town monitoring system Low data transmission for Town monitoring Low priority Email Multimedia & Low rate data (<144kbps) Medium Multimedia (<2Mbps) Video phone High multimedia (<30 Mbps) Super High Multimedia (30 Mbps to 100M/1G bps) File Transfer Analyzing the collected market data (8) Estimate traffic (T) and Service request density (P) Service type Speech & SMS Traffic class CB R VB R Rural Sub Urban Urban Dense Urban T1,1,1, P1,1,1 rtVBR T1,1,2, P1,1,2 T1,1,3, P1,1,3 T1,1,4, P1,1,4 T1,2,1, P1,2,1 T1,3,1, P1,3,1 T1,4,1, P1,4,1 T1,5,1, P1,5,1 T1,6,1, P1,6,1 T2,1,1, P2,1,1 nrtVBR AB R w/ min. rate guarantee w/ no guarantee s UB R Multimedia & Low rate data CB R VB R rtVBR nrtVBR AB R w/ min. rate guarantee w/ no guarantee s T , Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting(11) 2) Working document towards Methodology for Calculation of spectrum requirement (Doc.8F/TEMP/123), 5.6.2 Time-varying traffic and regionally-varying traffic; The detailed text is requested, which keeps consistency with other parts. Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting(12) 2) Working document towards Methodology for Calculation of spectrum requirement (Doc.8F/TEMP/123), 5.7 Distribution of traffic among RATs and within RATs, and 6. Determine required system capacity 7. Applying additional weighting factors, 8. Determine required spectrum - The detailed algorithm, which employs “delay percentile approach” was included in these sections. The approach was originally proposed by Finland (Doc.8F/227) on behalf of CEPT. It is said by Finland that it can handle packet based traffic well. - The comment from the floor was raised during WP8F meeting, which requests validation check for the detailed algorithm. - The algorithm should be examined from the viewpoint of whether or not it is appropriate for Spectrum Calculation for WRC-07 A.I. 1.4. Future work The following items should be discussed in future CJK-B3G meetings and WP8F meetings; • To review the following; - the identification of service parameters, - the definition of service environments, - the categorization of services, • To draft preliminary application scenarios, • To map applications onto service categories • To determine a service requirement table to be used for application mapping • To check proposed algorithm from the viewpoints of; - the technical validation, - the balance among complexity, technical strictness, and future market ambiguity, - the appropriateness for the ITU-R spectrum calculation in terms of transparency, • To develop spread sheet based on the calculation algorithm, • To preliminarily calculate traffic demands on a service environment by service environments basis, by using the spread sheet. The above would be reviewed at Shanghai and finalized at Geneva. Methodology timeframe July,2004 5th meeting Jul.6th 6th meeting End of Aug. Jan.,2005 7th meeting Mid-Nov. 8th meeting Mar.17th Jun.,2005 CJKB3G Shanghai Oct. 12-20 Initial draft of methodology (to other SWG) Review the results of SWG SpeCalc of WP8F (Methodology issues) WP8F Geneva Feb. 1-8 Revise the initial draft of methodology Quebec Jun. 1-8 Focus on Methodology and its related Radio Aspects. Start discussion on our Phase 2 collaboration

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