Q3. Service and market forecast for B3G
Document Sample


Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting
and future work pertaining to
Spectrum calculation methodology
Hitoshi Yoshino, ARIB WP8F Preparation Group
3rd CJK B3G Meeting
July 6th, 2004
Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting(1)
• Two working documents were developed;
1) Elements to be used for the development of IMT.ESTIMATE
(Doc.8F/TEMP/120Rev.1), which proposes the following process;
- Market segment analysis,
- Radio Access Technique identification,
- Traffic distribution among RAT,
- Spectrum requirement estimation,
2) Working document towards Methodology for Calculation of spectrum
requirement (Doc.8F/TEMP/123), which describes;
- Guidelines for methodology to be developed (incl. generic flow chart),
- Limitations of the existing Rec. M.1390 methodology,
- (Proposed) detailed calculation methodology.
Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting(2)
1) Elements to be used for the development of IMT.ESTIMATE
(Doc.8F/120R1);
Market Segments Access
Mobile Market
Techniques
a) Considers Various market Public Communication Mobile
•Pre IMT Cellular Mobile
segments,
Pre IMT
•Terrestrial Component
•Satellite Component
IMT-2000 •Enhanced IMT-2000
b) Identifies Access Techniques, •New Mobile Access
taking into account the •MSS
market segments, Nomadic
•RLAN Hot Spots
•New Nomadic Access /
Local Area Wireless
Distribution
Access capabilities
FWA •Digital broadcast
•BSS
Private / home environment •RLAN
•cordless devices
•short-range devices
•[UWB]
Non public market
Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting(3)
1) Elements to be used for the development of IMT.ESTIMATE
(Doc.8F/120R1);
c) Proposes
“only elements of mobile and nomadic communication technology
having bi-directional capabilities shall be considered”, as for spectrum
requirements in the context of WRC-07 A.I. 1.4,
Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting(4)
1) Elements to be used for the development of IMT.ESTIMATE
(Doc.8F/120R1);
d) Concludes that traffic volume shall
be considered for the following
systems; Market of
Mobile Communication
1) Terrestrial cellular mobile Distribute Traffic amongst Market Segmentation
- pre-IMT-2000 cellular,
Market Segments Features
- Terrestrial-IMT-2000, Communication Distribution Others
- Enhanced ITM-2000, and
•Cellular Mobile
•Nomadic
•Mobile Satellite Systems
- New Mobile Access capabilities, Distribute Traffic
2) Terrestrial Nomadic
RAT Distinguishing
amongst RATs Features
- R-LAN hot spots,
- New Nomadic/Local Area Cellular Mobile
•Pre-IMT Cellular Mobile
Short Range
•RLAN Hot Spots
Satellite
•IMT-2000 Satellite Component and its evolution
Wireless Access capabilities, •Terrestrial IMT-2000
•Enhanced IMT-2000
•New Nomadic Access /
Local Area Wireless
•MSS
•New Mobile Access
3) Satellite Applications
Access capabilities
Traffic Volume of RATs
- IMT-2000 Satellite component Distribution of Traffic amongst RATs
and its evolution,
- MSS.
Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting(5)
1) Elements to be used for the development of IMT.ESTIMATE
(Doc.8F/120R1);
5) Identifies IMT-relevant Radio Access Techniques (RAT), which fall into IMT-
2000 relevant segments, within ITU-R Rec. M.1645 (Framework Rec.) ;
1) IMT-2000 terrestrial component,
2) IMT-2000 satellite component,
3) Enhancements of IMT-2000,
4) Nomadic public RLAN,
5) New Mobile Radio Access Capabilities,
6) New Nomadic/Local Area Wireless Access Capabilities.
6) The following distinguishing feature should be considered in order to determine
which RAT is suitable or not for a specific service type or applications;
1) Radio Frequency bands, 2) Max cell size/range, 3) Max/Min transmit power,
4) Min sensitivity, 5) Error robustness, 6) Max user density per give spectrum,
7) Target deployment env.(coverage), 8) mobility, 9) vertical HO support,
10) channel char. and QoS, 11) Duplex scheme, 12) NW topology,
13) multicast support, 14) current commercial footprint
Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting(6)
1) Elements to be used for the development of IMT.ESTIMATE
(Doc.8F/120R1);
7) Prposes that IMT-relevant Radio Access Techniques (RAT), should be
considered for Spectrum Requirement Estimation;
Traffic Volume of RATs
Identify IMT relevant Traffic Vision on IMT-2000 and
Volume Systems Beyond IMT-2000
New Nomadic Access /
IMT-2000 and its Enhancements New Mobile Access Local Area Wireless
(Terrestrial and Satellite) Capabilities Access Capabilities
IMT relevant Traffic Volume
IMT-2000
Spectrum Requirement Estimation identified Bands
Spectrum for Future Development of IMT-2000
Candidate Bands
and Systems Beyond IMT-2000
Spectrum Requirement Estimation
Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting(7)
2) Working document towards Methodology for Calculation of spectrum requirement
(Doc.8F/TEMP/123),
1. Definitions
a) Services,
b) Service environments,
c) Radio environments,
d) Radio Access Technique
5.3 Generic flow chart
2. Analyze the collected
market data
3. Compute traffic demand Determine distribution
by service environment coefficients , which distribute
and services traffic to different RAT
according to possible
This section was revised.
deployment scenarios, by
4. Distribute traffic among using Monte-Carlo based
Radio Access simulations, if necessary
Techniques
RAT #2 RAT #1 RAT #3
5. Compute spectrum
requirement per RAT
a) Distribute traffic within RAT
b) Determine system capacity Determine distribution
required to carry traffic coefficients Rk,r,n , which
distribute traffic within RAT
according to the
characteristics of possible
6. Apply any additional
RAT group, by using Monte-
weighting factors
Carlo based simulations, if
necessary
7. Spectrum requirements for
RAT #1 Deterministic approach
Monte-Carlo approach,
8. Aggregate spectrum if necessary
8.Employ
requirements
weighting factors
9.Spectrum
requirements
Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting(8)
2) Working document towards Methodology for Calculation of spectrum requirement
(Doc.8F/TEMP/123),
5.4 Definitions; this section was revised;
- Service category,
- Service type
1) Speech,
2) Low rate Data & low multimedia,
3) Medium multimedia,
4) high multimedia,
5) super high multimedia),
- Traffic class (CBR, VBR, ABR, UBR)
- Service environment : the idea of reduction was included.
- Service usage patterns
1) Home, 2) Office, 3)Public area, 4) Wide area,
- Teledensity
1) Dense urban, 2) Urban, 3) Sub-urban, 4) Rural, 5) Remote
Service environments
Service environment consists of Service Usage patterns and Teledensity.
The number of the environments can be reduced, taking into account their
commonality.
1) Service Usage Patterns:
• Home Radio Environments
• Office,
• Public Area, and
• Wide Area
Macro-cell
2) Teledensity:
Micro-cell
• Dense urban,
• Urban, Pico-cell Rural
• Sub-urban,
Sub-urban
Service environment
• Rural
(combination of service usage pattern Urban
and topographic area, blue plain)
Hot spot
ic
ph
Dense urban
• Remote Home Office Public area Wide area og
ra
p s
Service usage patterns
Service Usage Patterns To rea
A
Fig. 1 Environment Space
Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting(9)
2) Working document towards Methodology for Calculation of spectrum requirement
(Doc.8F/TEMP/123),
5.4 Definitions (continued);
- Radio environment,
1) Macro cell, 2) Micro cell, 3) Pico cell, 4) hot spot, 5) Local area
cell, 6) Broadcast cell, 7) Satellite area cell,
- RATG : the idea of RAT group was included.
- Group 1: IMT-2000 and its enhancements (incl. satellite)
- Group 2: Systems beyond IMT-2000 RATs,
- Group 3: pre IMT-2000,
- Group 4: Existing local area RLAN technologies,
- Group 5: Digital broadcasting services,
Radio environments
Service environments can be defined as areas exhibiting common propagation conditions.
- According to the general principles and guidelines for spectrum calculation
methodology, the methodology should have flexibility to handle different combinations
of Radio Access Techniques (RATs).
- Each service environment can be supported by multiple RATs as shown below;
• Hotspots, Service environments
• Pico cell, SE#1 SE#2 SE#3 SE#4
• Macro cell, and Adu Bdu Cdu Au Bu Cu Asu Bsu Csu Ar Br Cr
• Micro cell Traffic
Radio Access Techniques
RAT #1 RAT #2 RAT #3
Adu Au Asu Ar Bdu Bu Bsu Br Cdu Cu Csu Cr
Traffic
Radio environments within RAT
Pico cell
Micro cell
Macro cell
Macro cell
Hot spot
Pico Micro Macro Hot Pico Micro Hot
cell cell cell spot cell cell spot
Traffic
Spectrum per RAT
Spectrum
Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting(10)
2) Working document towards Methodology for Calculation of spectrum requirement
(Doc.8F/TEMP/123),
5.6 Analyse the collected market data, and
5.6 Compute traffic demand by service environment and
services;
The process on
how to analyse the collected market data and
how to compute traffic demand,
were included and explained by using an example scenario.
A possible steps to get traffic demands
The following would be a process to get traffic demands;
1) Define service categories (Q2 in “service view doc.”) and produce
categorization table (shown as table 1, later)
2) Service and Market forecast (Q3 in “service view doc.”)
a) forecast future applications with service scenarios
b) their functionality – what are future applications – (Q.3.1),
c) their service environment(s),
d) their market scale, in association with time scale (Q.3.2)
e) their deployment scenario, (Q.3.2)
f) possible enablers and requirements (system capabilities),
g) overall requirements,
h) possible RAT(s) to support the capabilities,
i) preliminary traffic forecast (Q.3.3)
The above items should be provided by Answers to Q3s in service view
document
3) Mapping the applications onto service categories (table 1)
4) Calculate traffic demands on a service env. by service env. basis,
Service categorization
TABLE 1
Mapping table using service categorization
Traffic class CBR VBR ABR UBR
Service types
Realtime Non realtime With minimum Without any
rate guarantee gurantees
Speech & SMS
(<16kbps)
Multimedia &
Low rate data
(<144kbps)
Medium
Multimedia
(<2Mbps)
High
multimedia
(<30 Mbps)
Super High
Multimedia
(30 Mbps to
100M/1G bps)
Analyzing the collected market data (1)
Possible answer example to the questionnaires in
Service View Document.
- Take the application example (3) in “Service
Perspective on systems beyond IMT-2000”, ITU-R
WP8F Workshop on Services and Market Aspects,
Oct. 2003, for an example, (the next slide)
(http://www.itu.int/ITU-R/study-groups/rsg8/rwp8f/workshop-edinburgh/index.asp)
Analyzing the collected market data (2)
Application examples – Service Scenario
Mobile Town Monitoring Systems
Mobile Town Monitoring System
(High data rate, huge number of
terminals)
- Scene: Urban town, Individual terminal
linking with a town monitoring
system
- Enablers and their requirements:
1) Embedded mobile terminal:
Town monitor: < 1 kbps, < 1 sec.
Video phone: < 1Mbps, 50 – 100 msec
File transfer: (3D video file)
< 1 – 45 Mbps, < 2 sec.
* Terminal density: 2 – 3 units/ 10 m 2
- Overall requirement:
Data rate: < 45 Mbps,
Latency: 50 msec.
Analyzing the collected market data (3)
- The following example answer may be obtained
from the service scenario example;
(the next two slides)
Analyzing the collected market data (4)
- Answer example (1/2)
1. Example:
Mobile Town Monitoring Systems
2. Functionality:
Town information monitoring (e.g. current state of restaurants or parking
lots available), reservation (e.g. restaurant), video phone, and file transfer
3. Service environment:
- Usage Scenario: In Public area or wide area, individual terminal is
linking with a town monitoring system.
- Mobility: Low (less than 4 km/h) or HIGH (less than 100 km/h)
4. Market scale
This service will start at around 2010. Its deployment area rapidly increase
within 2 to 3 years are expected, particularly urban area. Around 2015, it
will widely be pervasive in urban city in this country.
Expected customers are forecasted XXX users/km2 (2010), YYY users/km2
(2015) and ZZZ users/km2 (2020) ,
Terminal density in dense urban area: 2 – 3 units /10 m2,
Analyzing the collected market data (5)
- Answer example (2/2)
5. Deployment scenario:
Mainly deployed by hotspots and pico cells,
6. Possible enablers:
Mobile video terminal embedded,
Town monitor: < 1 kbps (bit rate), < 1 sec. (latency),
Video phone: < 1 Mbps (bit rate), < 50-100 m sec. (latency),
File transfer (3D video catalogue): < 1-45 Mbps (bit rate), < 2 sec.
(latency),
7. Overall requirements:
Data rate: <45 Mbps, Latency: 50 m sec.
8. Possible RATs:
Nomadic/Local Area Wireless access, and New
Mobile Access,
Analyzing the collected market data (6)
Determine potential applications and their requirements
- Key components analysis IMT-2000 Systems beyond IMT-2000
Major requirements of network infrastructure
Service Examples
categories Bit rate E-E transmission delay Terminal
/ Connection delay density
Voice ~ 64 Kb/s 100 ms/ < 2 s -
Video phone) 64 Kb/s~1Mb/s 50ms~100ms/ < 2 s -
IM, e-mail ~1 Kb/s -
Existing
services Video mail ~1Mb/s < 1 s* / < 2 s -
Packet mobile (* : Delay between server
broadcasting and end terminal) -
~10 Mb/s
Intranet access -
3-D video communication 1Mb/s~45 Mb/s 100 ms / < 2 s -
Reality Ambient communication 50Mb/s~1Gb/s 50ms~100ms/ < 2 s -
Hologram video 500Mb/s~
communication 30Gb/s 100 ms /less than 2 s -
Bio- The Peripheral nerve 1Mb/s~
info 100Mb/s ≒ 50 ms -
informatio five / ≒ 50 ms
n senses Brain – brain ~2Tb/s quasi -
alwa
Remote control ~10Mb/s 50 ms~/50 ms~ ys-on -
Virtual
alter ego 1ms~50ms
Tele-existence ~10Mb/s /10ms~50ms ~20 / 10m2
Control of home appliances - -/- ~20 / 10m2
Ubiquitous ~1000 /
Ubiquitous directory service - -/- 2
Analyzing the collected market data (7)
Mapping the application onto categories
Unit: Mbit/s/km2
Traffic class CBR VBR ABR UBR
Service types
Realtime Non realtime With minimum Without any
rate guarantee gurantees
Speech & SMS Voice Low data Low data Low priority E-
(<16kbps) transmission for transmission for mail
restaurant Town
reservation in monitoring
Town
monitoring
system
Multimedia &
Low rate data
(<144kbps)
Medium Video phone
Multimedia
(<2Mbps)
High
multimedia
(<30 Mbps)
Super High File Transfer
Multimedia
(30 Mbps to
100M/1G bps)
Analyzing the collected market data (8)
Estimate traffic (T) and Service request density (P)
Service
type Traffic class Rural Sub Urban Urban Dense Urban
CB
T1,1,1, T1,1,2, T1,1,3, T1,1,4,
Speech & SMS R P1,1,1 P1,1,2 P1,1,3 P1,1,4
VB
T1,2,1,
R rtVBR P1,2,1
T1,3,1,
nrtVBR P1,3,1
w/ min.
AB rate
T1,4,1,
R guarantee P1,4,1
w/ no
guarantee
T1,5,1,
s P1,5,1
UB
T1,6,1,
R P1,6,1
Multimedia & CB
T2,1,1,
Low rate data R P2,1,1
VB
R rtVBR
nrtVBR
w/ min.
AB rate
R guarantee
w/ no
guarantee
s
T ,
Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting(11)
2) Working document towards Methodology for Calculation of spectrum requirement
(Doc.8F/TEMP/123),
5.6.2 Time-varying traffic and regionally-varying traffic;
The detailed text is requested, which keeps consistency with other parts.
Outcome at WP8F Berlin meeting(12)
2) Working document towards Methodology for Calculation of spectrum requirement
(Doc.8F/TEMP/123),
5.7 Distribution of traffic among RATs and within RATs, and
6. Determine required system capacity
7. Applying additional weighting factors,
8. Determine required spectrum
- The detailed algorithm, which employs “delay percentile approach” was
included in these sections. The approach was originally proposed by
Finland (Doc.8F/227) on behalf of CEPT. It is said by Finland that it can
handle packet based traffic well.
- The comment from the floor was raised during WP8F meeting, which
requests validation check for the detailed algorithm.
- The algorithm should be examined from the viewpoint of whether or not
it is appropriate for Spectrum Calculation for WRC-07 A.I. 1.4.
Future work
The following items should be discussed in future CJK-B3G meetings and WP8F
meetings;
• To review the following;
- the identification of service parameters,
- the definition of service environments,
- the categorization of services,
• To draft preliminary application scenarios,
• To map applications onto service categories
• To determine a service requirement table to be used for application mapping
• To check proposed algorithm from the viewpoints of;
- the technical validation,
- the balance among complexity, technical strictness, and future market
ambiguity,
- the appropriateness for the ITU-R spectrum calculation in terms of
transparency,
• To develop spread sheet based on the calculation algorithm,
• To preliminarily calculate traffic demands on a service environment by service
environments basis, by using the spread sheet.
The above would be reviewed at Shanghai and finalized at Geneva.
Methodology timeframe
July,2004 Jan.,2005 Jun.,2005
5th meeting 6th meeting 7th meeting 8th meeting
Jul.6th End of Aug. Mid-Nov. Mar.17th
CJK-
B3G
Shanghai Geneva Quebec
Oct. 12-20 Feb. 1-8 Jun. 1-8
WP8F
Initial draft Revise the initial draft
of methodology of methodology
(to other SWG)
Review the results of SWG SpeCalc of WP8F
(Methodology issues)
Focus on Methodology and its related Radio Aspects.
Start discussion on our Phase 2
collaboration
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