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					INTEGRATING CONFLICT PREVENTION
               in
  DEVELOPMENT and AID AGENDAS




     SAKIKO FUKUDA -PARR
          THE NEW SCHOOL



  GDN CONFERENCE        BRISBANE
                    JANUARY 2008
      Highlights from policy dialogue process

‘The development community has definitely become more involved in post-conflict recovery and
   peacebuilding operations. However, as yet it has not successfully identified its role, nor
   adjusted its policy with regard to conflict prevention.’

                                                                 Sadako Ogata, Keynote address




   Conflict prevention as objective of development policy and development cooperation

   Sponsored by JICA and UNDP

   Policy Forum: Wilton Park, November 2007

   5 country case studies, 4 thematic background papers, 21 submitted papers and presentations
              Presentation outline

1. Key features of armed conflicts in Africa
      “Conflicts – Development Nexus: A Survey of Armed Conflicts
      in Sub-Saharan Africa 1980-2005” (Fukuda-Parr and others)

  -   Trends
  -   Link 1 - Impact on development
  -   Link 2 – Structural risk factors
  -   Policy response (PRSPs)



2. Policy messages from Wilton Park dialogue
            Trends: Armed conflicts in SSA
                     1980-2005

 126 wars involving the state in 32 countries

 6 between states, 120 within states

 Long duration: over 10 years for 10 countries

 Cease-fires and peace accords are broken

 Sub-regional spillovers

 High human cost on civilian population: 1 million battle deaths; total
  war deaths multiples of battle deaths, and massive dislocations

 More „Non-state wars‟ than state wars (77 vs. 17 2002-2005)
Appendix 1: Sub-Saharan Africa: Minor and Major Armed Conflict 1980-2005 and Peace Accords 1989-2005
                    1980       1981       1982       1983       1984       1985       1986       1987       1988       1989       1990     1991       1992       1993       1994       1995    1996   1997      1998        1999     2000   2001   2002   2003       2004         2005


                                                                                                                          P                   P                                P                                                                     P
         Angola


   Burkina Faso
        Burundi                                                                                                                                                                                                                         P            P       P
     Cameroon
  Cnt. Afr. Rep.
                                                                                                                                                         P          P          P          P             P          P            P                    P                              P
           Chad

       Comoros                                                                                                                                                                                                                          P     P              P
  Congo Brazz.                                                                                                                                                                                                                  P


   Cote d’Ivoire                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             P           P          P
           DRC                                                                                                                                                                                                                  P             P      P       P
        Djibouti                                                                                                                                                               P                                                        P     P
         Eritrea                                                                                                                                                                                                                        P



        Ethiopia




        Gambia
         Ghana
         Guinea
 Guinea-Bissau                                                                                                                                                                                                     P


          Kenya
        Lesotho
         Liberia                                                                                                                     P        P                     P          P          P      P                                                           P
            Mali                                                                                                                              P          P
   Mozambique                                                                                                                                 P          P
                                                                                                                                                                    P          P          P
           Niger


         Nigeria

        Rwanda                                                                                                                                P          P          P
        Senegal                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          P
   Sierra Leone                                                                                                                                                                                  P                              P       P
        Somalia                                                                                                                                                     P          P                         P   conflict but no gov’t                        conflict but no gov’t
    South Africa


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                P                    P       P           P          P
         Sudan

           Togo
        Uganda                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       P


Minor War : between 25 and 999 battle-related deaths in a given year.       War : at least 1000 battle-related deaths in a given year.   P: Years during which peace agreements were signed.
Note: Somalia is not by definition an armed conflict in 1997-2000 and 2003-2005 since no government could be identified.
Sources: UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset Version 4-2006 1946-2005; UCPD Peace Agreement Dataset Version 1.0 1989-2005
                      Development-war links:
                        Research findings

Link 1: Impact of conflict on development

Link 2: Development factors as Risks of armed conflict:
  1. Structural
     Chronic poverty (Collier and Hoeffler)
     Natural resource dependence (Collier and Hoeffler)
     Horizontal inequality and exclusion (Stewart)
     Youth bulge and unemployment (Cincotta)
     Environmental pressure (Homer Dixon)

  2. Historical
    Recurrence of war (Collier and Hoeffler)

  3. Location
     Neighborhood spillovers (Seybolt)
     country with per cap GDP of $1000 has 3 times the risk of war as
                                  country with pc GDP of $4000




Source: UN Millennium Project, 2005
Link 1 - Development consequences

Wars destroy lives, infrastructure, institutions and
  social capital.
But impacts are diverse, complex and sometimes
  counter-intuitive
 Some national economies keep growing (13 out of
  22)
 Human indicators may continue to improve
 Reversals are localized
 Worsening risk factors: horizontal inequalities,
  culture of violence, etc.
                               Figure 1: GDP decreases* during conflicts 1970-2005 (in constant 2000 US dollars)
                                                                     excluding conflicts of one year
                                                                  Source: World Development Indicators


                    12000
         Millions




                                                                                                                                                                 Cote d'Ivoire (minor)
                                                                                                                                                                 (-0.04% decrease)
                    10000



                    8000
   GDP




                    6000
                                                                                                               Congo, Dem. Rep. (major)



                    4000

                                                         Mozambique (major)

                    2000
                                                                                                  Burundi (major) Sierra Leone (major)         Eritrea (major) Cent. Afr. Rep. (minor)

                                                                                          Liberia (major)                  Djibouti (minor)
                       0
                         70


                                 72


                                         74


                                                 76


                                                         78


                                                                 80


                                                                         82


                                                                                 84


                                                                                         86


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                                                                                                          90


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                                                                                                                                              19


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                                                                                                                                                                         20
*defined by GDP
lower last year of                                                                              Year
conflict compared
with first year                  Burundi (1991-2005)                            Central African Republic (2001-2002)                 Congo, Dem. Rep. (1996-2001)
^data from
Mozambique
                                 Cote d'Ivoire (2002-2004)                      Djibouti (1991-1994)                                 Eritrea (1998-2000)
begins 1980                      Liberia (1989-2003)                            Mozambique (1977-1992)                               Sierra Leone (1991-2000)
                                Figure 2: GDP increases* during conflicts 1970-2005 (in constant 2000 US dollars)^
                                                                          (excluding conflicts of one year**)
                                                                        Source: World Development Indicators


                    18000
         Millions




                    16000

                    14000

                    12000

                    10000
   GDP




                    8000                                       Angola (major)
                                                                                                                                                Ethiopia2 (major)
                                                                                    Sudan (major)
                    6000
                                                               Ethiopia1 (major)

                    4000
                                                                                                          Senegal (minor)
                                                                      Uganda (major)                                   Congo, Rep. (major)                          Guinea (minor)
                    2000                                                                                         Rwanda (major)
                                                                                                          Mali (minor)
                            Chad (major)                                                                            Niger (minor)
                                                                                                                                                     Guinea-Bissau (major)
                       0
                         70


                                  72


                                              74


                                                      76


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                                                                                                                                                               20


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                                                                                                                                                                                20
                                                                                                          Year
*defined by GDP higher
last year of conflict
compared with first year
                                             Angola (1974-2004)                                     Chad (1965-2005)                                    Congo, Rep. (1993-2002)
^data from Angola                            Ethiopia1 (1976-1991)                                  Ethiopia2 (1996-2005)                               Guinea (2000-2001)
begins 1980, Chad                            Guinea-Bissau (1998-1999)                              Mali (1990-1994)                                    Niger (1992-1997)
1970, Ethiopia1 1981,
Uganda 1982
                                             Rwanda (1990-2002)                                     Senegal (1990-2003)                                 Sudan (1983-2005)
**excluding South Africa                     Uganda (1981-2005)
for reasons of scale
                                                        Figure 3: Under-five mortality rate decreases* during conflict 1970-2005
                                                                              (excluding conflicts with one or less data point recorded during conflict)
                                                                                            Source: World Development Indicators
                              325

                                                                                                                                            Sierra Leone (major)
                                                   Angola (major)

                              275
                                    Chad (major)
  Under-give mortality rate




                                                                                                 Somalia (major)         Liberia (major)
                                                                                                 NO CHANGE
                              225
                                                                       Ethiopia1 (major)


                                                                                                                                              Burundi (major)
                                                                                                   Uganda (major)                             NO CHANGE
                              175
                                                                                                                                                                                Ethiopia2 (major)
                                                                                                                   Senegal (minor)
                                                                                                 Sudan (major)

                              125                                                                                                                               Congo, Rep. (major)
                                                                                                                                                                NO CHANGE
                                                                    South Africa1 (major)


                              75
                                         1970                 1975                     1980                1985                      1990                  1995                  2000               2005
                                                                                                                       Year
*defined by under-five
mortality rate being lower at
last year of conflict (or                          Angola (1974-2004)                          Burundi (1991-2005)                         Chad (1965-2005)                           Congo, Rep. (1993-2002)
closest data point, taken at                       Ethiopia1 (1976-1991)                       Ethiopia2 (1996-2005)                       Liberia (1989-2003)                        Senegal (1990-2003)
five year increments) as
compared with beginning of                         Sierra Leone (1991-2000)                    Somalia (1981-2005)                         South Africa1 (1980-1988)                  Sudan (1983-2005)
conflict                                           Uganda (1981-2005)
  Link 2: Development as War risks

Structural factors
- Poverty
- Natural resource dependence
- Horizontal inequality
- Youth bulge


History

Neighborhood spillovers
             Poverty: level and trend

 32 countries with conflict do not differ from 17
  countries without conflict in average GDP per
  capita, HDI and poverty incidence
 Economic mismanagement and decline as
  proximate cause: Wars break out in context of
  improving economic and social indicators. GDP
  per capita at onset of war compared with 5 years
  previously - lower in 13 countries; higher in 13
  countries
                               Figure 5 Per Capita GDP declines 5 years prior to onset of armed conflict

                       1200

                                                                        Congo Rep.


                       1000




                       800
US $ (constant 2000)




                                                                                           Cote d'Ivoire
                                                                                                                      Rwanda
                       600                                                                                            Sierra Leone
                                                                  Liberia                                             Togo



                       400
                                                           Togo                                    Comoros
                                                Sudan
                                                                                Rwanda
                                                                                     S. Leone
                       200    Chad           Ghana
                                                                        Niger
                                                                                                      Guinea-Bissau
                                                                                                DRC

                         0
                          60

                          62

                          64

                          66

                          68

                          70

                          72

                          74

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                                            Figure 6: Per Capita GDP increases during 5th years before onset of armed conflict

                       1000
                               *South Africa also had an increase from
                               $2222 to $2749 (off chart)
                       900


                       800

                                                                                        Cameroon
                       700
US $ (constant 2000)




                       600


                       500
                                                                                                                                                         Lesotho
                                                                                         Kenya                         Senegal
                       400
                                                                                                                                                                          Nigeria
                                                                                Gambia
                       300
                                                                                                                                                                                           CAR
                       200                                                                 Burkina Faso
                                                                                                                     Mali                                   Eritrea
                                                                                                                     Burundi
                       100
                                                                                                                                          Ethiopia

                         0
                              1960

                                     1962

                                             1964

                                                    1966

                                                           1968

                                                                  1970

                                                                         1972

                                                                                 1974

                                                                                         1976

                                                                                                1978

                                                                                                       1980

                                                                                                              1982

                                                                                                                     1984

                                                                                                                            1986

                                                                                                                                   1988

                                                                                                                                           1990

                                                                                                                                                  1992

                                                                                                                                                           1994

                                                                                                                                                                   1996

                                                                                                                                                                             1998

                                                                                                                                                                                    2000

                                                                                                                                                                                           2002

                                                                                                                                                                                                  2004
         Natural resource dependence

 Highest risk associated with primary commodity
  exports above 32% GDP
 11 of 18 countries above 15%
 Cote d‟Ivoire at 32%
 Factor in war dynamics in Cote d‟Ivoire, Sierra
  Leone, Liberia
             Horizontal inequalities

Identity based inequality and exclusion a motivating
  factor in many countries (Rwanda, Burundi, Cote
  d‟Ivoire, Senegal, Uganda, Ghana etc.) but not in
  others where similar conditions exist (e.g.
  Mozambique, Sierra Leone)

„Ethnic wars‟: increasing trend over the last decades
                   History of war

 Wars in 32 countries over 1980-2005 involved 154
  cessations in fighting including 80 peace agreements
  (since 1989).
 Only 9 cessations were followed by 10 years of peace.
 20 additional cessations have held for less than 10
  years since 1995
 Peace agreements do not resolve conflicts
   Policy response: review of PRSPs

 Review of 18 PRSPs available for 32 countries
 4 made no mention of armed conflict
 none contained analysis of root causes except for
  Liberia i-PRSP
 structural risk factors (e.g. youth employment,
  equity and inclusion) not among high priority
  policy agenda
 No systematic approach to conflict-poverty links in
  PRSPs
                    Summing up

1.   Impact of armed conflicts on poverty and
     development are diverse and complex.
2.   Structural factors as cause of war: neither direct
     nor predictable. But they frequently play a role
     as drivers and constitute risk factors.
3.   Surprising lack of systematic attention to armed
     conflict as a cause of poverty and to root causes
     of poverty in economic and social policy
     formulation.
4.   Risks of conflict in SSA remain significant;
     structural risk factors are prevalent, history of
     war is pervasive and cross-border links are
     active.
  Policy Implications: Conflict
       Prevention Agenda


NATIONAL POLICY PRIORITIES

DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION
             1. Conceptual framework

The state is not the appropriate unit of analysis for
 contemporary wars which defy conventional definitions
 and concepts - yet data collection, analysis and policy
 action continue to be driven by a sate-centric
 framework.

Human centered – human security – concept of security
 provides a more appropriate framework that would
 reveal sub-national impacts, cross border spillovers,
 non-state and external actors, and focus on the
 individual as both a center of concern as well as agent of
 violence and of peace building.
                        „New Wars‟

Survey shows: 126 wars defy conventional state-centric
  definitions and conceptions of war:
 Many non-state wars: 2002-05 – 77 wars with 13,000
  fatalities (17 state wars with 21,000 fatalities)
 Battle deaths are a small portion of war deaths (55,ooo vs.
  2 million in Sudan)
 Driven by political and private economic motives
 Involve diverse actors: external and internal actors, state
  and non-state
 Human rights violations of civilians by both state and non-
  state militias, organized criminal groups with long lasting
  societal consequences
 State is not an appropriate unit of analysis

 Definitions of war and data sets – exclude non-state
  wars, deaths of civilians, asymmetric wars
 Development impact invisible in national indicators
  – disaggregated local and cross border impacts
 Actors – neglect of low intensity conflicts driven by
  non-state actors; cross-border links stimulate
  neighborhood spillover effects
   2. Policy attention – low intensity wars

Low intensity wars continue in countries that are not
  „fragile states‟
- Armed conflicts occur in strong states with high level
  of legitimacy and control over territory (Burundi,
  Rwanda, Sudan)
- Armed conflicts continue in states with commitment
  to poverty reduction and competent economic
  management (Uganda, Ghana)
       3. Policy attention: structural risks

There is no automatic relationship between poverty and armed
  conflict. Structural factors play an important role in creating
  incentives for war but the linkages are complex and diverse,
  requiring country specific analysis.

 Adjust national and international policy instruments:
  Integrating analysis of root causes of past conflicts and risks
  of future conflicts in national and international policy
  instruments such as PRSPs, MDGs, UNDAF, etc.

 Reconsider economic, social, governance reform priorities
  and policy choices.
 3.1 Policies to address horizontal inequality

 Distributional consequences of growth
 Governance and political inclusion (e.g. Burundi and
  Rwanda peace building contrasts)
 Social investments and equitable opportunities
 Affirmative action
 Positive examples of Northern Ireland, Malaysia….
3.2 Policies to accelerate demographic transition
            and youth unemployment

 Youth: links between unemployment, violence,
    demography
   Policies to accelerate demographic transition are well
    known (female education, health care etc)
   Migration policies
   Employment creating growth
   Building social capital – social breeding ground for
    violence has many dimensions of gender relations,
    frustrated aspirations, etc.
     3.3 Macroeconomic Policies and conflict
              prevention (FitzGerald)

Contrasting economic strategies and priorities:
 Reduce uncertainty or raise efficiency
 Increase employment or increase output
 Raise investment or raise savings
 Reduce horizontal inequality or reduce poverty
 Reduce external vulnerability or increase integration
Many implications for macroeconomic policy design
 Fiscal – diversify and deepen tax base, expenditure for equity..
 Monetary – credit for investment, stable exchange rate..
 External finance – debt, fluctuations in aid flows..
         3.4 Policies for peace building

 Peace agreements do not hold
 Social action to build capacity to resolve conflict
  without violence e.g. role of civil society, gender
  relations
 State building strategies – creating developmental
  states accountable for human rights obligations of
  providing for security and basic needs.
4. Policies for development cooperation: aid

 Allocation priorities
 Rethinking consensus policy priorities to
  accommodate conflict prevention
 Attention to low intensity conflicts in non-fragile
  states
 Political analysis – lessons of Rwanda where donors
  did not heed the clear signs of deteriorating political
  and social situation and focused on national social
  and economic indicators. Quantitative indicators of
  „Early warning‟ not a solution.
                    New directions

Research
 Macroeconomic, social, sectoral, governance policies and
  conflict links
 Political and institutional processes (the state, civil
  society) and resort to violence

Policy dialogue:
 Beyond „fragile states‟ to human security


Initiatives
 Adjust operational tools e.g. PRSPs, MDGs, UNDAFs

				
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