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Forecast Runoff Volumes for the Snowmelt Season
Wednesday, June 04, 2008
NWS California Nevada River Forecast Center and the California Dept. of Water Resources
Remarks: A cool upper trough diving out of the Pacific Northwest is spreading
showers/thunderstorms into northern Nevada today (Wed, June 4th) along with below normal
temperatures. The trough will exit to the east by Thursday and be followed by dry weather
with a brief slight warming trend into Friday, June 6th. However, a broad upper level trough
pattern will prevail into the weekend, too weak to generate any precipitation, but keep
temperatures slightly below normal. Predictability into next week (June 8-14) shows greater
than normal uncertainty as longer weather models are currently at extreme odds. Persistence
may be the best trend to follow at this time, i.e. dry weather with near normal temperatures
into next week and this is the trend followed in today’s forecasts.
Please note: This will be the final forecast for this snowmelt season. Please contact the
California Nevada River Forecast Center if additional guidance is needed.
Forecasts reflect predicted short-term precipitation and temperature as well as the predicted
shift from normal climatology provided by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Peak 1-Day Volume Date
Forecast Point
(1000s of ac-ft) (Month/Day)
American River - Folsom 18.1 5/16
Mokelumne River - Pardee 8.3 5/17
Stanislaus River - New Melones 10.6 5/18
Tuolomne River - New Don Pedro 22.2 5/17
Merced River - Pohono Bridge 7.3 5/18
Merced River – Lake McClure 11.3 5/18
Lake Tahoe Inflow 2.0 5/17
Truckee River – Tahoe to Farad 4.0 5/17
WF Carson River - Woodfords 0.7 5/19
EF Carson River - Gardnerville 2.7 5/19
Carson R – Carson City 2.8 5/20
San Joaquin River - Millerton 21.3 5/18
Kings River – Pine Flat 22.7 5/19
Kaweah River - Terminus 5.5 5/19
Tule River - Success 0.6 5/19
Kern River - Isabella 7.0 5/20
West Walker River - Coleville 3.1 5/19
East Walker River - Bridgeport 0.9 5/21
Humboldt River - Palisade 1.7 5/26
Marys River – Twin Buttes 0.9 5/24
Humboldt River - Elko 1.2 5/25
Indicated values are unimpaired flow volumes in thousands of acre-feet in 5-day intervals for
the next 20 days. The date indicated above each column is the mid-point of the 5-day interval.
Max: Reasonable maximum (10 percent chance of being exceeded)
Prob: Most probable volume (50 percent chance of being exceeded)
Min: Reasonable minimum (90 percent chance of being exceeded)
Williamson River at Chiloquin Scott River at Fort Jones
25.0 10.0
1000s of Acre-Feet
1000s of Acre-Feet
9.0
20.0 8.0
7.0
15.0 6.0
5.0
10.0 4.0
3.0
5.0 2.0
1.0
0.0 0.0
6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21 6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21
Max 20.7 18.1 16.2 14.2 Max 9.5 7.6 5.7 4.4
Prob 17.0 14.0 12.0 10.5 Prob 7.9 5.6 4.5 3.7
Min 12.9 9.9 8.3 6.8 Min 6.7 4.3 3.4 3.1
Trinity River at Lewiston Shasta Reservoir Inflow
25.0 70.0
1000s of Acre-Feet
1000s of Acre-Feet
60.0
20.0
50.0
15.0 40.0
10.0 30.0
20.0
5.0
10.0
0.0 0.0
6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21 6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21
Max 20.1 19.2 18.3 17.4 Max 60.7 52.5 45.1 42.7
Prob 17.0 16.0 15.0 14.0 Prob 51.0 42.0 37.0 35.0
Min 14.5 13.3 12.2 11.1 Min 44.4 32.3 30.0 29.1
Feather River at Oroville Yuba River at Smartville
40.0 18.0
1000s of Acre-Feet
1000s of Acre-Feet
35.0 16.0
14.0
30.0
12.0
25.0
10.0
20.0
8.0
15.0
6.0
10.0 4.0
5.0 2.0
0.0 0.0
6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21 6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21
Max 37.6 30.4 24.6 20.7 Max 17.1 15.5 12.3 9.3
Prob 33.0 23.0 20.0 18.0 Prob 15.0 12.0 10.0 8.0
Min 29.0 17.3 16.6 15.8 Min 12.3 9.6 8.3 6.9
American River at Folsom Mokelumne River at Pardee
35.0 25.0
1000s of Acre-Feet
1000s of Acre-Feet
30.0
20.0
25.0
20.0 15.0
15.0 10.0
10.0
5.0
5.0
0.0 0.0
6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21 6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21
Max 29.5 29.9 30.2 20.3 Max 20.0 17.0 13.0 11.0
Prob 25.0 23.0 21.0 15.0 Prob 16.0 13.0 10.0 8.0
Min 20.0 17.9 15.1 11.6 Min 12.0 9.0 7.0 5.5
Stanislaus River at New Melones Tuolumne River at New Don Pedro
25.0 60.0
1000's of Acre-Feet
1000s of Acre-Feet
20.0 50.0
40.0
15.0
30.0
10.0
20.0
5.0 10.0
0.0 0.0
6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21 6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21
Max 23.0 21.0 19.0 17.0 Max 52.0 51.0 48.0 41.0
Prob 19.0 17.0 15.0 13.0 Prob 42.0 40.0 37.0 31.0
Min 15.0 13.0 10.5 8.5 Min 33.0 30.0 26.0 21.0
Merced River at Pohono Bridge Merced River at Lake McClure
25.0 30.0
1000s of Acre-Feet
1000s of Acre-Feet
20.0 25.0
20.0
15.0
15.0
10.0
10.0
5.0 5.0
0.0 0.0
6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21 6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21
Max 20.0 19.0 17.0 16.0 Max 26.0 25.0 23.0 21.0
Prob 16.0 15.0 13.0 12.0 Prob 21.0 20.0 18.0 16.0
Min 12.0 11.0 9.0 8.0 Min 16.0 15.0 13.0 11.0
San Joaquin River at Millerton Kings River at Pine Flat
70.0 80.0
1000s of Acre-Feet
70.0
1000s of Acre-Feet
60.0
50.0 60.0
50.0
40.0
40.0
30.0
30.0
20.0 20.0
10.0 10.0
0.0 0.0
6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21 6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21
Max 55.0 63.0 60.0 51.0 Max 60.0 67.0 61.0 53.0
Prob 46.0 51.0 47.0 42.0 Prob 50.0 52.0 48.0 43.0
Min 37.0 36.0 35.0 34.0 Min 40.0 38.0 37.0 36.0
Kaweah River at Terminus Tule River at Success
18.0 2.5
1000s of Acre-Feet
16.0
1000s of Acre-Feet
14.0 2.0
12.0
1.5
10.0
8.0
1.0
6.0
4.0 0.5
2.0
0.0 0.0
6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21 6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21
Max 16.0 17.0 16.0 13.0 Max 1.8 2.1 2.3 1.9
Prob 13.0 13.0 11.0 10.0 Prob 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.1
Min 10.0 9.0 8.0 8.0 Min 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9
Kern River at Isabella Lake Tahoe Inflow
25.0 6.0
1000s of Acre-Feet
1000s of Acre-Feet
20.0 5.0
4.0
15.0
3.0
10.0
2.0
5.0 1.0
0.0 0.0
6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21 6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21
Max 18.0 20.0 21.0 19.0 Max 5.3 4.0 2.5 1.3
Prob 15.0 16.0 16.0 15.0 Prob 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.5
Min 12.0 12.0 11.0 11.0 Min 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1
Truckee River - Lake Tahoe to Farad W F Carson River at Woodfords
8.0 1.8
1000s of Acre-Feet
1000s of Acre-Feet
7.0 1.6
6.0 1.4
5.0 1.2
1.0
4.0
0.8
3.0 0.6
2.0 0.4
1.0 0.2
0.0 0.0
6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21 6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21
Max 7.0 5.6 5.2 3.8 Max 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3
Prob 5.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 Prob 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.8
Min 4.0 3.2 2.8 2.0 Min 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6
E F Carson River nr Gardnerville Carson River at Carson City
9.0 6.0
1000s of Acre-Feet
8.0
1000s of Acre-Feet
5.0
7.0
6.0 4.0
5.0
3.0
4.0
3.0 2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
0.0 0.0
6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21 6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21
Max 7.5 7.8 7.3 5.8 Max 5.4 4.9 4.5 3.0
Prob 6.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 Prob 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.0
Min 4.8 4.5 3.5 2.8 Min 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.2
West Walker River at Coleville East Walker River at Bridgeport
14.0 4.5
1000s of Acre-Feet
1000s of Acre-Feet
12.0 4.0
3.5
10.0
3.0
8.0 2.5
6.0 2.0
1.5
4.0
1.0
2.0 0.5
0.0 0.0
6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21 6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21
Max 10.8 11.5 8.8 7.0 Max 3.8 4.1 3.4 2.8
Prob 8.0 8.5 6.5 5.0 Prob 2.8 3.0 2.5 2.0
Min 5.7 5.9 4.3 2.8 Min 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.1
Humboldt River at Palisade Marys River below Twin Buttes
9.0 3.0
1000s of Acre-Feet
1000s of Acre-Feet
8.0
2.5
7.0
6.0 2.0
5.0
1.5
4.0
3.0 1.0
2.0
0.5
1.0
0.0 0.0
6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21 6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21
Max 8.0 7.2 6.5 5.6 Max 2.5 1.8 1.2 0.8
Prob 6.5 5.5 5.0 4.0 Prob 1.8 1.2 0.8 0.5
Min 4.0 3.0 2.5 1.8 Min 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.3
Humboldt River at Elko
6.0
1000s of Acre-Feet
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
6/6 6/11 6/16 6/21
Max 5.0 4.2 4.2 3.0
Prob 4.0 3.5 3.5 2.5
Min 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.0
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