Operational forecast of the Mediterranean marine ecosystem
Alessandro Crise, Paolo Lazzari, Stefano Salon, Anna Teruzzi
EuroGOOS 2008 20-22 May, Exeter - UK
Operational forecast of the Mediterranean biogeochemistry
OGS contribution to modeling the Mediterranean biogeochemistry
Early ‘90 Research Research MTP MTP O.O. R&D O.O. R&D MFS MFS --MFSPP MFSPP --MFSTEP MFSTEP Pre-opertional Pre-opertional demonstration demonstration 2008-2011
MATER MATER SINAPSI (IT) SINAPSI (IT)
MERSEA IP MERSEA IP
ADRICOSM ADRICOSM PARTNERSHIP PARTNERSHIP
Towards the sustained prediction of Mediterranean biogeochemistry Call for scientific achievements and advanced IC technologies
EuroGOOS 2008
VECTOR VECTOR (IT) (IT)
DORII DORII
SESAME SESAME
Operational forecast of the Mediterranean biogeochemistry
Flow diagram of present forecasting system
▪ Multiple platform off-line coupling ▪ ‘Best’ physics+’best’ biogeochemistry ▪ Professional support to routinely delivered Products on the web ▪ Validation fields (Chl-a) produced with algorithms customized for the Med Sea Biogeochemical Biogeochemical Model Model OPATM-BFM OPATM-BFM 1/8° 1/8° Satellite Satellite CHL data CHL data
ISAC-CNR ISAC-CNR
Circulation Circulation Model Model OPA 1/16° OPA 1/16°
Quality Control Quality Control Products Products
INGV INGV
OGS OGS CINECA CINECA
OGS OGS
EuroGOOS 2008
Operational forecast of the Med biogeochemistry: the consortium
Aim: improving the efficiency of monitoring systems and forecast modelling, co-ordinating projects and being the national reference point for operational oceanography activities. The international framework: the Intergovernmental Program of UNESCO, the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and Coastal Ocean Observing Panel (COOP), the United Nations Partnerships for Sustainable Development, the implementation of the Water Framework Directive and the European initiative for Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) The national mission: the thematic strategy for Sustainable Development and Protection of the Marine Environment of the Italian Ministery for Environment and Territory .
EuroGOOS 2008
Operational forecast of the Mediterranean biogeochemistry: products Contribution to the MERSEA real time products portfolio
10 days of forecast 7 days of analysis Operational chain is running weekly (start: Wednesday at 12CET) The fully automatized procedure has worked since April 2007 without interruption (max delay <2days)
http://poseidon.ogs.trieste.it/cgi-bin/opaopech/mersea
EuroGOOS 2008
Operational forecast of the Med biogeochemistry: applications
Potential applications
▪ Boundary conditions and inital conditions for coastal model ▪ ‘carrying capacity’ for the basin -> end-to-end ecosystem modelling for ecosystem-based fishery management ▪ Habitat suitability for meridionalisation and tropicalisation ▪ Regional response to the climate change ▪ Re-analyses ▪ Help in designing observational research cruises and activities
EuroGOOS 2008
Activities & Actors
Science
OGS OGS
Technological Development Infrastructure
CINECA CINECA
INGV INGV
Economics
ISAC-CNR ISAC-CNR
EuroGOOS 2008
Activities - SCIENCE
AIM: to couple the ‘best’ physics with the ‘best’ biogeochemistry
OPATM-BFM off-line transport reaction model for the biogeochemical variables accounts for: Physical forcing Photosynthetic Active Radiation (PAR) Wind speed External loads (Gibraltar Strait, Rivers)
∂ci ∂c ∂ ⎡ ∂c ⎤ = −U ⋅ ∇ci + k h ∇ 2 ci + ⎢k c i ⎥ + wsi i + Rbio (ci , c1 ,..., c N , T , I ) + CC h ∂t ∂z ∂z ⎣ ∂z ⎦
EuroGOOS 2008
Activities - SCIENCE
OPATM-BFM improvements BFM Equation analysis (stability, sensitivity studies, etc.) Complexity (Number of PFTs, etc.) Initial Condition, Boundary Condition Validation(?) Results analysis, Performance assessment
EuroGOOS 2008
Activities - SCIENCE
Meridional averaged sections during mixing and stratification period
August 2007
4 8 4 1 1
February 2008
8
4
(mg C / m 3 )
0.5 1.5 5.5 6.5 2.5 3.5 4.5
5.5 6.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 1.5 0.5
Diatoms:shaded Pico: contoured
(mg C / m 3 )
PO4:shaded NO3: contoured
EuroGOOS 2008
Acctivities – Model skill assessment
Chl-a concentration in the first optical length
Model performances against climatology – basin averages
EuroGOOS 2008
Activities – Model skill assessment
EuroGOOS 2008
Activities -
OPATM-BFM comparison with CHL satellite data (5 days means)
Error metrics for mean CHL over the Mediterranean Sea every 5 days (after Allen et al., 2007)
EuroGOOS 2008
Operational Forecast OGS-OPATM: ANALYSIS & FORECAST
http://poseidon.ogs.trieste.it/cgi-bin/opaopech/mersea
ANALYSIS
Satellite Observations MODIS Aqua Chlorophyll_a Images provided by GOS-ISAC-CNR
http://gos.ifa.rm.cnr.it/index.php?id=363&s ubject=%2f
FORECAST
EuroGOOS 2008
Operational Forecast OGS-OPATM: ANALYSIS & FORECAST
http://poseidon.ogs.trieste.it/cgi-bin/opaopech/mersea
ANALYSIS
Satellite Observations MODIS Aqua Chlorophyll_a Images provided by GOS-ISAC-CNR
http://gos.ifa.rm.cnr.it/index.php?id=363&s ubject=%2f
FORECAST
EuroGOOS 2008
Operational Forecast OGS-OPATM: ANALYSIS & FORECAST
http://poseidon.ogs.trieste.it/cgi-bin/opaopech/mersea
ANALYSIS
Satellite Observations MODIS Aqua Chlorophyll_a Images provided by GOS-ISAC-CNR
http://gos.ifa.rm.cnr.it/index.php?id=363&s ubject=%2f
FORECAST
EuroGOOS 2008
Operational Forecast OGS-OPATM: ANALYSIS & FORECAST
http://poseidon.ogs.trieste.it/cgi-bin/opaopech/mersea
ANALYSIS
Satellite Observations MODIS Aqua Chlorophyll_a Images provided by GOS-ISAC-CNR
http://gos.ifa.rm.cnr.it/index.php?id=363&s ubject=%2f
FORECAST
EuroGOOS 2008
Activities – TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
Horizontal upscaling (1/16°->1/8°) by means of divergence preserving spatial interpolation OPA-TM Parallelization for massively parallel computers using MPI communication protocol Smolarkiewicz Flux Limited Advection Scheme implemented for a scalar machine Load balancing for better exploitation of computer resources Implementation of the operational forecast by means of script shells (A, B, C)
A. Input data setup
OPA 1/16 INGV
EuroGOOS 2008
B. OPATM-BFM production C. Data dissemination CINECA/OGS
Activities – TECNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
Spatial interpolation Parallelization Smolarkiewicz Load balancing Implementation of the operational forecast by means of scripts shell Further development in the framework of
The operational procedure will be implemented in the framework of FP7 DORII project. This project aims at deploy an e-infrastructure based on GRID technology for scientific communities that use remote instrumentation and HPC. In the DORII consortium, OGS is committed to use GRIDcc to optimise the operational procedure, to integrate data and models, to track and stir simulations
EuroGOOS 2008
Activities - INFRASTRUCTURE
CINECA CINECA
Largest Italian computing centre, one of the most important in Europe 32 University Consortium + OGS + CNR
INGV INGV NEC NEC
Opteron Opteron Cluster Cluster
OGS OGS
http://www.cineca.it/
EuroGOOS 2008
Operational forecast – FUTURE
In situ data In situ data (floats, gliders, buoys) (floats, gliders, buoys)
MyOCEAN
Satellite Satellite CHL data CHL data ISAC-CNR ISAC-CNR Quality Quality Control Control Products Products OGS OGS
EGEE - DORII
OPA OPA 1/16 1/16 INGV INGV MERCATOR MERCATOR HCMR HCMR
OPATMOPATMBFM BFM OGS OGS CINECA CINECA
Backup forecasting centers
High Performance GRID DEISA (CINECA)
EuroGOOS 2008
CONCLUSIONS
A multiplatform offline coupled hydrodynamical-biogeocgemical model has successfully run for more than an year (and is still running….) Demonstration products are routinely delivered on the web on weekly basis The model has already demonstrated to have some predicting skills (but this is only the beginning..) Some products fits intermediate users requirements (chl-a) but many more can be exploited (after QC)
-> more investments in R&D are needed -> extension to biogeochemistry of existing and future observing systems (EuroARGO, EuroSITES/ESONet, satellites, VOS, gliders)
The cost of the sustained production chain for MSC will depend heavily on public money
-> cheap & redundant design, low maintenance costs, exploitation of the cutting edge technology
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EuroGOOS 2008
Actors - CINECA
The End
http://www.cineca.it/
EuroGOOS 2008