1990 – 2020 Greenhouse Gas Inventory & Forecast for the State of Alaska
Stephen Roe Alison Bailie Randy Strait Alison Jamison Holly Lindquist Thomas Peterson
Inventory and Forecast of Alaska GHG Emissions
• Preliminary analysis for further discussion and revision
– Inventory of historical emissions from 1990 to most recent data year – Projection of emissions to 2020
• Prepared by CCS for the Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation (ADEC) under contract to the Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP)
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Inventory and Forecast of Alaska GHG Emissions
• Alaska is one of nine states under the WRAP project: AK, WA, ID, MT, WY, SD, NV, CO, and UT; • Status: ADEC review of Draft Inventory complete.
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Coverage
• Six gases per USEPA and UNFCCC guidelines
– Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O, Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), Perfluorocarbons (PFCs), Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) – Black Carbon considered separately
• All major emitting sectors
– – – – – – Electricity Fossil Fuels Residential, Commercial, Industrial Fuel Use Transportation Agriculture, Forestry and Waste Industrial Processes and Other Sources
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Inventory & Forecast Summary
• Gross CO2e:
– 43 MMt in 1990 – 52 MMt in 2005 – 61 MMt in 2020
• 2005 – 21% Increase from 1990 Levels • By 2020 - 42% Increase from 1990 Levels
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Inventory & Forecast Summary
• Terrestrial Sequestration:
– -1.4 MMt/yr in 2000 for Managed Forests
• Black Carbon: 3.0 MMtCO2e/yr in 2002
– Slight reductions by 2020 from new federal engine/fuel standards
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Gross Alaska GHG Emissions By Sector, 1990-2020
70 60 50
Electricity (in-state) RCI Fuel Use Transport Marine Transport Other ODS Substitutes Waste Management Fossil Fuel Industry Transport Aviation Transport Onroad Agriculture Other Ind. Process
MMtCO2e
40 30 20 10 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
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Alaska & US Emissions By Sector, Year 2000
US
Alaska
Res/Com Fuel Use 9% Transport 35% Industrial Process 0.4%Waste 2% Agric. 0.1% Electricity 6% Fossil Fuel Ind. 7%
Res/Com Fuel Use 9% Transport 26% Industrial Process 5% Waste 4% Agric. 7%
Industrial Fuel Use 41%
Industrial Fuel Use 14% Fossil Fuel Ind. (CH4) 3% Electricity 32%
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Alaska Emissions By GHG, Year 2000 (MMtCO2e Based)
CH4 8% N2O 0.70% SF6 0.05% HFCs 0.34%
CO2 91%
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Per Capita and GSP/GDP GHG Emissions, 1990-2002
100 80 60 40 20 0 1990 1995 2000 2005
US GHG/Capita (tCO2e) AK GHG/Capita (tCO2e) US GHG/$ (100gCO2e) AK GHG/$ (100gCO2e)
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Alaska Emissions Growth
(MMtCO2e Basis)
Waste Management Agriculture Other Ind. Process ODS Substitutes (HFCs) Transport Fossil Fuel Industry RCI Fuel Use Electricity Production (in-state) -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 MMtCO2e 4.0 6.0 8.0
2005 - 2020 1990 - 2005
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Electricity Production, 2004
Total Generation 6,049 GWh
Natural Gas, 3,475 GWh, 57.5%
Petroleum, 682 GWh, 11.3% geothermal, biomass, wind 0.7 GWh, <0.1%
Hydroelectric, 1,498 GWh, 24.8%
Coal, 393 GWh, 6.5%
Total GHG Emissions 3.1 MMtCO 2e
Natural Gas, 2.0 MMtCO 2e, 63% Petroleum, 0.6 MMtCO 2e, 18% Coal, 0.6 MMTCO 2e, 19%
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Electricity Production
Coal 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 Biomass, Wind, Geothermal Natural Gas Hydroelectric Petroleum
GWh
4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
4 3.5
Coal Natural gas
Petroleum
MMtCO2
3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
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Residential Fuel Consumption
4
Coal Natural Gas Electricity Petroleum Wood
3
MMtCO2e
2
1
0 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year 2010 2015 2020
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Commercial Fuel Consumption
5
Coal Natural Gas Electricity Petroleum Wood
4
MMtCO2e
3
2
1
0 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year 2010 2015 2020
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Industrial Fuel Consumption
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990
Coal Natural Gas Electricity Petroleum Wood
MMtCO2e
1995
2000
2005 Year
2010
2015
2020
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Fossil Fuel Industry (Non-Combustion)
6.0 5.0
Natural Gas Coal Mining Oil Industry
MMtCO 2e
4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
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19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 08 20 10 20 12 20 14 20 16 20 18 20 20
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Transportation
25 20
MMtCO2e
Jet Fuel Boats and Ships-Ports Onroad Gasoline Rail and Other
Aviation Gasoline Boats and Ships-Offshore Onroad Diesel
15 10 5 0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
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Waste Management
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2
MMtCO2e
Uncontrolled LFs LFGTE LFs MSW Combustion Industrial WW Flared LFs Industrial LFs Municipal WW
1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
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Agriculture
0.08 0.07 0.06
Enteric Fermentation Ag Residue Burning Ag Soils - Fertilizer Manure Management Ag Soils - Crops Ag Soils - Livestock
MMtCO2e
0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year 2010 2015 2020
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Black Carbon
• 3.0 MMtCO2e in 2002
– Range: 1.9 – 4.0 MMtCO2e – Primary contributors: commercial marine vessels (37%), aircraft (14%), nonroad diesel (12%), onroad diesel (8%), others coal and oil combustion.
• By 2018, reductions in onroad and nonroad engines (0.4 MMtCO2e/yr)
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Forestry
• “Managed Forests”, the coastal maritime forests
– -1.4 MMtCO2 sequestered in 2000
• Data Sources: UAF Modeling – Terrestrial Ecosystem Model • Statewide (including non-managed forests)
– Forests a net source of about 40 MMtCO2e
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For More Information
• Alice Edwards, Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation
• (907) 465-5109 • alice_edwards@dec.state.ak.us
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