City of Austin Population and Households Forecast by ZIP

City of Austin Population and Households Forecast by ZIP Code Updated Forecast Introduction and Discussion The purpose of this effort is to produce a much needed update to the Department of Planning’s population and households forecast for the City of Austin by ZIP Code and to generate an extended forecast of population and households for 2020. The original forecast is appended to the end of this document. So much has happened economically, demographically, and consequently in terms of population growth within the City of Austin since the 2004 forecast was produced that updated figures for many ZIP Codes are absolutely necessary. Austin’s Regional Economy The region’s economy came hurtling out of the tech-recession like a runaway freight train that continued to gain speed from early 2005 into late 2007 and has only recently begun to attenuate its pace of expansion. Austin has again been the envy of other cities across the nation as heretofore historically healthy urban economies have faltered one after the other. We never had a housing bubble here because of the lingering effects of the techrecession, and ironically it was the depth of our local recession that then gave us protection from the ruinous fallout from a bursting bubble in residential real estate that has dramatically altered the economic landscapes of Florida, California, Arizona, New England and the Midwest. Heaped on top of this are the economically deleterious effects of the as yet unfolding mortgage meltdown across the nation—and while Austin continues to be one of the country’s healthiest housing markets, national-level builders have already pulled back on housing production volumes locally (leaving a wideopen niche for a resurgent local home builder corps). Behind it all has been Austin’s tried and true traditional one-two punch of phenomenal job creation coupled with a very high quality of life, especially when compared to our competitor cities. According to the Texas Workforce Commission, Austin area annualized job growth rates, from the end of 2004 to the beginning of 2008, have remained above 3.0%, spiking into the stratosphere at 4.0% during 2007. This enormous expansion in local payrolls came in large part from high-paying sectors such as wireless, semiconductors, professional services and the emerging economic cluster of the electronic gaming industry. The many local economists and market-watchers who woefully predicted in 2003 that “the buffalo weren’t coming back” have been proven soundly wrong. Austin’s high-tech economy has come back with a vengeance and should continue to provide the absolutely necessary ingredient to any strong urban economy: well-paid jobs. But what truly sets Austin apart from other economically healthy urban centers is our enduring high quality of life. Quality of life means good schools, access to recreation, employment availability, good weather, reasonably prices utilities, and intangibles like a vibrant cultural scene and social richness and complexity. There are so many new households moving into Austin from all parts of the country, and the world for that matter, that we are experiencing a concentration of that special energy, a distillation of new ideas and verve. Richard Florida’s Creative Class is thriving here in Austin, and it turn, this highly entrepreneurial, tolerant and progressive community acts as a huge magnet for like-minded households. City’s Share of Boom-level Growth The City of Austin has received a hefty share of all of this regional employment and population growth during the past four years, and at the end of day it is the City of Austin who should get the majority of the credit for fueling this growth. Without the City’s leadership and downright urban sex appeal, none of this would be happening. The City’s vibrant and wellknown day in and day out live music scene, the several large-scale music and film festivals that occur throughout the year, the presence of state government and the associated huge knot of capitol complex employment, the region’s overall employment center and concentrated muscle, even the trail around Lady Bird Lake are all contributing factors that make the City of Austin the true catalyst to the region’s phenomenal success and consequent growth. Annualized population growth rates for the City of Austin since 2005 have fluctuated around the 2.5% mark, a stronger pace of growth than that of the first half of the decade. The decade’s final overall annualized growth rate should still fall below the historical rate of 3.5% as it would be an almost mathematic impossibility for the population growth rate to accelerate enough to pull the decade’s overall rate up to our historical norm. The region’s overall final annualized growth rate for the decade should finish right around the 2.9% figure, significantly below the historical average of just under 4.0%. Infill housing, in a wide variety of type and scale, continues to gain popularity and momentum within the City’s urban core. As urban sprawl oozes and slimes throughout the region along major transportation corridors and leapfrogs into rural countryside, the attractiveness of an urban core address simply grows and grows. The development community has finally realized that households want an array of housing choices, and will pay a premium for close-in neighborhoods like never before. The City will certainly struggle in the future to keep the urban core from becoming an expensive Monaco on the Colorado. The Uncertain Economic Future No one truly yet knows how big of a local effect will result from the national-levels woes currently affecting the overall economy. Some economists say that the country is definitely headed toward an official recession, which is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of diminished gross domestic product. Even if we do not satisfy the traditional definition of a recession, the national economy in early 2008 is certainly limping along at best. Some economists argue that we’re seeing the beginnings of a long-term, macro-level transformation where middle class households have basically run out of ways to borrow and spend money, a major factor which has driven our consumer-based economy for over four decades. Widespread residential foreclosures and huge swaths of urban housing in a state of negative equity signify that the country has not hit the bottom of this downturn yet. And while Austin should remain one of the strongest single family and especially multifamily housing markets in the nation, the local rate of housing construction will undoubtedly slow even if average housing values are capable of remaining steady. But the long-term outlook for the Austin region and the City of Austin itself is extremely positive. The importance of quality of life as an economic engine has become increasingly important to expanding, relocating and new businesses and households. If Austin can maintain its relative advantage over our competitor cities, the region and the City will continue to experience vigorous economic expansion and population growth. The great future challenge will be one of managing this growth, not generating it. ZIP Codes Worthy of Note 78701 The ongoing scope and scale of housing stock expansion in and around downtown is nothing short of phenomenal. Almost 1,700 units have been completed since 2000, another 2,500 units are under construction, more than 2,700 units are already in the development pipeline and an additional 2,000 units are in the preliminary planning stages. Downtown is experiencing what is just the beginning of what will ultimately become several decades worth of residential construction and household formation. Even with a few inevitable bumps in the road along the way in terms of demand flow, downtown is not being over-built and is not likely to produce a sizable glut of stock in the future—the demand and appeal for downtown living is simply too deep and strong, and is now being fueled in part by capital sources outside of Austin. 78705 The City’s University Neighborhood Overlay (UNO) plan for West Campus allows for significantly taller residential and mixed-use structures than were permitted in the past, resulting in far greater housing density in the area. Long-dormant market demand for an expanded housing stock near the University of Texas has been unleashed under the UNO plan. Probably the most successful (in terms of generating and delivering product) City plan of all time is an example of what can happen when regulatory fetters are removed in the face of true demand. UNO has also created a ripple effect across the remainder of the ZIP Code as dozens of new residential projects have sprung up over the past few years. All told, just over 4,000 new units have either been recently completed, are under construction or are in the development pipeline. Many of the new UNO projects have replaced older residential structures so the net gain of units is somewhere around the 3,000 mark—and further complicating this picture is the design nature of the newer student-oriented stock, many times one will see references to the number of beds in a project and not straight-up units as in the case of a traditional apartment complex. 78702 This portion of east Austin has seen a boom in residential construction during the past few years, a trend that will more than likely only accelerate as the area offers a far more affordable product than nearby downtown. This forecast makes the basic assumption that east Austin will continue to attract residential projects, these developments will be met with plenty of demand, and in turn will ultimately generate a major expansion of retail and related services across east Austin neighborhoods, which will then promote even more residential construction. The overall perception of east Austin has shifted dramatically during the past few years, and this fundamental change in attitude on the part of housing consumers will generate a positive feedback loop that will strongly reinforce the notion of east Austin as one of the few remaining reasonably priced urban core neighborhoods. 78729 This forecast predicts that the vast, currently undeveloped Robinson Ranch in southern Williamson County will begin to experience intense residential and commercial development sometime between 2010 and 2020. Now almost entirely surrounded by urbanization, the remnant island of pristine Texas ranchland will begin to participate in the growth of Austin’s tax base in a very significant way. This document is produced by Ryan Robinson, City Demographer, Department of Planning, City of Austin, February 2008. ryan.robinson@ci.austin.tx.us cityofaustin.org/census 78717 78681 78729 78728 78660 78727 Lake Travis 78726 78750 78759 78732 78730 78758 78753 78754 78653 78731 78757 78756 78752 78723 78724 78653 78751 78722 78703 78746 78705 78701 Decker Lake 78736 78735 78702 78741 78721 78725 78704 78749 78739 78745 78748 78744 ABIA 78617 78652 City of Austin, 2000 to 2020 Projected by ZIP Code Map produced by: Ryan Robinson, City Demographer, Department of Planning, City of Austin. March 2008. Population Growth 78747 20,000 Plus Persons 15,000 to 20,000 10,000 to 15,000 5,000 to 10,000 2,500 to 5,000 Less than 2,500 City of Austin Population and Households Forecast by ZIP Code Base Year 2000, 2005 Estimate and Updated 2010 and 2020 Forecast ZIP Code 78613 78617 78652 78653 78660 78681 78701 78702 78703 78704 78705 78717 78719 78721 78722 78723 78724 78725 78726 78727 78728 78729 78730 78731 78732 78733 78734 78735 78736 78738 78739 78741 78742 78744 78745 78746 78747 78748 78749 78750 78751 78752 78753 78754 78756 78757 78758 78759 Totals Census 2000 Population 379 5,007 6 68 26 0 3,855 22,489 19,505 43,117 25,777 2,103 7 10,124 6,260 30,259 10,199 1,708 4,724 23,131 3 7,749 2,495 25,926 930 526 231 7,771 4,010 0 5,940 40,661 1,626 32,551 52,304 11,930 579 21,054 28,139 15,303 14,167 17,733 38,822 2,845 7,983 23,129 45,893 37,518 656,562 Census 2000 Households 130 1,041 2 19 8 0 1,811 7,222 9,548 20,562 9,410 861 2 3,099 2,848 10,487 2,762 212 1,544 9,877 1 3,519 1,134 12,649 435 213 91 3,371 1,535 0 1,820 17,080 531 9,590 20,228 5,110 175 7,718 10,575 5,948 7,394 6,678 14,745 1,300 4,410 10,600 19,193 18,161 265,649 2005 2005 Population Households 395 6,033 6 558 186 0 4,108 22,705 19,608 44,078 26,075 4,532 7 10,430 6,276 30,342 10,991 1,713 8,035 25,198 3 8,215 2,714 26,171 1,062 554 247 8,898 4,397 0 7,658 42,341 1,697 37,724 54,309 12,262 2,024 26,477 30,770 15,884 14,570 17,844 40,163 4,362 8,056 23,156 46,125 38,330 697,293 136 2,085 2 156 57 0 2,773 7,472 9,834 21,650 14,786 1,855 2 3,224 2,956 10,589 2,984 504 2,626 10,814 1 3,813 1,234 13,009 497 224 97 3,907 1,685 0 2,346 17,835 554 11,133 21,222 5,299 617 9,745 11,644 6,236 7,830 6,812 15,341 2,002 4,473 10,709 19,526 18,647 290,946 Revised Revised 2010 2010 Population Households 421 8,864 756 2,501 833 0 12,537 24,460 19,782 46,326 28,091 6,659 207 10,891 6,402 38,725 12,135 1,797 8,794 25,761 503 8,423 3,222 26,681 1,236 599 273 10,316 5,382 0 11,252 45,613 1,858 38,677 54,847 12,748 7,515 30,694 33,632 16,426 15,410 18,521 46,560 8,774 8,292 23,350 48,478 39,892 775,114 144 3,064 252 699 256 0 8,463 8,050 9,921 22,754 15,928 2,726 59 3,367 3,015 13,515 3,294 529 2,874 11,056 168 3,909 1,464 13,262 578 243 107 4,529 2,062 0 3,447 19,213 607 11,414 21,433 5,509 2,291 11,297 12,727 6,448 8,282 7,071 17,785 4,026 4,604 10,799 20,522 19,408 323,172 Extended Extended 2020 2020 Population Households 477 15,040 4,331 7,709 2,244 0 30,923 35,357 20,159 53,230 32,486 7,503 210 12,901 6,749 43,377 17,001 1,979 8,805 29,033 4,305 19,550 4,328 27,792 1,616 697 329 14,907 6,028 0 15,591 52,750 2,208 44,755 56,022 13,808 9,355 34,893 38,373 17,582 18,742 19,998 54,513 18,398 10,806 28,772 53,610 43,301 942,544 164 5,198 1,444 2,154 690 0 20,873 11,636 10,110 26,145 18,421 3,072 60 3,988 3,178 15,138 4,615 583 2,878 12,460 1,435 9,074 1,967 13,815 756 282 130 6,545 2,310 0 4,777 22,220 721 13,208 21,892 5,967 2,852 12,842 14,521 6,902 10,073 7,634 20,823 8,442 6,000 13,307 22,694 21,066 392,980 Anualized Growth Rate 00 to 2010 1.1% 5.9% 62.2% 43.4% 41.4% 0.0% 12.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 0.9% 12.2% 40.3% 0.7% 0.2% 2.5% 1.8% 0.5% 6.4% 1.1% 66.9% 0.8% 2.6% 0.3% 2.9% 1.3% 1.7% 2.9% 3.0% 0.0% 6.6% 1.2% 1.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.7% 29.2% 3.8% 1.8% 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 1.8% 11.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 1.7% Anualized Growth Rate 10 to 2020 1.3% 5.4% 19.1% 11.9% 10.4% 0.0% 9.4% 3.8% 0.2% 1.4% 1.5% 1.2% 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 1.1% 3.4% 1.0% 0.0% 1.2% 23.9% 8.8% 3.0% 0.4% 2.7% 1.5% 1.9% 3.8% 1.1% 0.0% 3.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.5% 0.2% 0.8% 2.2% 1.3% 1.3% 0.7% 2.0% 0.8% 1.6% 7.7% 2.7% 2.1% 1.0% 0.8% 1.97% Anualized Growth Rate 00 to 2020 1.2% 5.7% 39.0% 26.7% 25.0% 0.0% 11.0% 2.3% 0.2% 1.1% 1.2% 6.6% 18.5% 1.2% 0.4% 1.8% 2.6% 0.7% 3.2% 1.1% 43.8% 4.7% 2.8% 0.3% 2.8% 1.4% 1.8% 3.3% 2.1% 0.0% 4.9% 1.3% 1.5% 1.6% 0.3% 0.7% 14.9% 2.6% 1.6% 0.7% 1.4% 0.6% 1.7% 9.8% 1.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 1.82% NOTES: 1) All data items represent only the portion of a ZIP Code that falls within the City of Austin. 2) Please refer to the Methodology page for a detailed explanation of the underlying data sources and projection techniques used in this forecast. Produced by: Ryan Robinson, City Demographer, Department of Planning, City of Austin, February 2008. City of Austin Population and Household Forecast by ZIP Code Forecast Introduction and Discussion Introduction The purpose of this effort is to establish mid-decade population and household estimates for the City of Austin by ZIP Code and to generate a short-term population and household forecast for 2010 by ZIP Code. The following pages contain data tables, thematic maps and methodology steps documenting this forecast effort. Discussion Despite a debilitating downturn in the local economy that began in the early months of 2001, the City of Austin experienced slow but steady population growth during the first half of the decade. Although well below the City's average growth rate experienced in the 1990s of 3.5%, the City grew at an annualized rate of 1.3% from 2000 to 2004. The pace of population growth should accelerate over the last half of the decade and approach an annualized rate of 2.0%. Amazingly, the City has continued to add households during the decade-even with deep job cuts and only a recent return to positive job creation. International immigration and natural increase from a large local population have been the major drivers of household formation across the City. The volume of domestic migration coming into the City has greatly diminished since 2001; however, the share of total population growth that comes from domestic migration should begin to increase from 2005 to 2010 as local payrolls expand. The City of Austin is now firmly established as an emerging immigrant gateway into the United States from places like Mexico, Central America, China, India and Southeast Asia. The City catches a sizable portion of this international flow of households and will more than likely continue to do so for many years to come. Housing Dynamics Single family housing generation has come mostly from large subdivisions on the suburban edges of the City; places like Circle C, Village of Western Oaks and Covered Bridge in the southwest; from Hillcrest, Olympic Heights, Barker Ranch, Stablewood and Springfield along the southern tier of the City; from Pioneer Crossing, Belhaven, Speyside and Scofield Ridge in the northeast quadrant; and from Avery Ranch, Canyon Creek, Great Hills and The Parke along the City's northern and northwestern fringe. Please refer to the map of single family housing starts on Page 7. The urban core has also seen single family home construction, but in many cases an existing residential structure was demolished to make way for a larger unit, and with a few exceptions, the overall density of single family structures in most inner-city neighborhoods has not increased substantially during the past several years, and yet the urban core has indeed experienced population growth and heavy investment in the existing housing stock. Population growth within the urban core has largely come from new multifamily projects and the significantly higher household sizes of incoming Hispanic families. The map on Page 8 of new multifamily projects shows the hot spots of apartment construction since 2000. Thousands of units were added to the existing large cluster of multifamily housing stock along Riverside Drive east of IH 35; thousands of new units were added as well to the far northwest node at RM 2222 and RM 620; and Austin's downtown zone has been a vibrant sub-market for condo and highend apartment construction during the first half of the decade. Population Growth by ZIP Code Overall population growth, from 2000 to 2010, should be greatest in ZIP Code 78748 in south central Austin, with a net gain of more than 10,000 new residents. Please refer to the data table showing population growth for each ZIP Code on Page 4 and the map of growth on Page 10. Over two thousand single family structures were built within 78748 from 2000 to 2004. The large contributing subdivisions in the area are far from built-out and there is still an abundance of available, developable acreage remaining. It is important to note that housing developers within this ZIP Code have been meeting a demand for medium-priced housing. The City's upper-end single family market continues to be rather soft in most parts of town while the demand for starter homes and medium-priced product has continued to be quite strong. Other ZIP Codes that should finish the decade with significant population growth (all netting more than 5,000 persons) are 78749, 78744, 78753, 78754 and 78717 in southern Williamson County. All of these ZIP Codes have experienced and should continue to experience high levels of new housing activity. Interestingly enough, the City of Austin is now the fourth largest city in Williamson County where some 17,000 Austinites live, in several ZIP Codes. The City of Austin is undergoing profound demographic change and has joined most other large cities in becoming a majority-minority community, meaning that no single ethnic group holds the majority. City demographers estimate that the Anglo share of total population for the City sits at just under 50% as of April 1, 2004 and will drop further throughout the decade to 45.9% by 2010. The City's share of total population that is Hispanic surged during the 1990s, climbing from 23% in 1990 to almost 31% in 2000 and the Latino share of total has more than likely continued this steep ascent. Along with a rapidly growing Hispanic community come fundamental demographic forces and trends, like larger household sizes and significantly bigger under-18 age population shares, that will have an impact on population growth within the City for decades to come. This document is produced by Ryan Robinson, City Demographer, Department of Neighborhood Planning and Zoning, City of Austin, October 2004. ryan.robinson@ci.austin.tx.us cityofaustin.org/census City of Austin Population and Households by ZIP Code Base Year 2000 and 2010 Forecast ZIP Code 78613 78617 78652 78653 78660 78681 78701 78702 78703 78704 78705 78717 78719 78721 78722 78723 78724 78725 78726 78727 78728 78729 78730 78731 78732 78733 78734 78735 78736 78738 78739 78741 78742 78744 78745 78746 78747 78748 78749 78750 78751 78752 78753 78754 78756 78757 78758 78759 Totals Census 2000 Population 379 5,007 6 68 26 0 3,855 22,489 19,505 43,117 25,777 2,103 7 10,124 6,260 30,259 10,199 1,708 4,724 23,131 3 7,749 2,495 25,926 930 526 231 7,771 4,010 0 5,940 40,661 1,626 32,551 52,304 11,930 579 21,054 28,139 15,303 14,167 17,733 38,822 2,845 7,983 23,129 45,893 37,518 656,562 Census 2000 Households 130 1,041 2 19 8 0 1,811 7,222 9,548 20,562 9,410 861 2 3,099 2,848 10,487 2,762 212 1,544 9,877 1 3,519 1,134 12,649 435 213 91 3,371 1,535 0 1,820 17,080 531 9,590 20,228 5,110 175 7,718 10,575 5,948 7,394 6,678 14,745 1,300 4,410 10,600 19,193 18,161 265,649 2005 2005 Population Households 395 6,033 6 558 186 0 4,108 22,705 19,608 44,078 26,075 4,532 7 10,430 6,276 30,342 10,991 1,713 8,035 25,198 3 8,215 2,714 26,171 1,062 554 247 8,898 4,397 0 7,658 42,341 1,697 37,724 54,309 12,262 2,024 26,477 30,770 15,884 14,570 17,844 40,163 4,362 8,056 23,156 46,125 38,330 697,293 136 2,085 2 156 57 0 2,773 7,472 9,834 21,650 14,786 1,855 2 3,224 2,956 10,589 2,984 504 2,626 10,814 1 3,813 1,234 13,009 497 224 97 3,907 1,685 0 2,346 17,835 554 11,133 21,222 5,299 617 9,745 11,644 6,236 7,830 6,812 15,341 2,002 4,473 10,709 19,526 18,647 290,946 2010 2010 Population Households 421 6,957 756 2,018 260 0 4,452 23,266 19,782 44,904 26,799 8,389 207 10,891 6,402 31,022 11,589 1,797 8,794 25,761 503 10,456 3,222 26,681 1,236 599 273 11,039 5,445 0 10,568 44,405 1,858 39,100 54,847 12,748 5,660 31,308 33,632 16,426 15,410 18,521 43,975 7,954 8,292 23,350 46,715 39,892 748,582 144 2,405 252 564 80 0 3,005 7,657 9,921 22,055 15,196 3,435 59 3,367 3,015 10,827 3,146 529 2,874 11,056 168 4,853 1,464 13,262 578 243 107 4,846 2,086 0 3,238 18,705 607 11,539 21,433 5,509 1,726 11,523 12,727 6,448 8,282 7,071 16,797 3,650 4,604 10,799 19,776 19,408 311,035 Absolute Population Growth 00--05 16 1,026 0 490 160 0 253 216 103 961 298 2,429 0 306 16 83 792 5 3,311 2,067 0 466 219 245 132 28 16 1,127 387 0 1,718 1,680 71 5,173 2,005 332 1,445 5,423 2,631 581 403 111 1,341 1,517 73 27 232 812 40,731 Absolute Population Growth 05--10 26 925 750 1,460 74 0 343 561 173 826 724 3,857 200 462 126 680 598 84 759 563 500 2,241 507 510 174 45 26 2,140 1,048 0 2,910 2,064 161 1,375 539 486 3,636 4,831 2,861 542 840 677 3,812 3,592 236 194 590 1,563 51,289 Absolute Population Growth 00--10 42 1,950 750 1,950 234 0 597 777 277 1,787 1,022 6,286 200 767 142 763 1,390 89 4,070 2,630 500 2,707 727 755 306 73 42 3,268 1,435 0 4,628 3,744 232 6,549 2,543 818 5,081 10,254 5,493 1,123 1,243 788 5,153 5,109 309 221 822 2,374 92,020 Rank in Absolute Population Growth 00--10 45 16 31 17 38 47 33 27 37 18 23 3 41 28 42 29 20 43 9 13 34 12 32 30 36 44 46 11 19 48 8 10 39 2 14 25 7 1 4 22 21 26 5 6 35 40 24 15 NOTES: 1) All data items represent only the portion of a ZIP Code that falls within the City of Austin. 2) Please refer to the Methodology page for a detailed explanation of the underlying data sources and projection techniques used in this forecast. Produced by: Ryan Robinson, City Demographer, Department of Planning, City of Austin, October 2004. 78613 78717 78645 78634 78681 78664 78641 78729 78728 78660 78727 78726 78759 78753 78750 78730 78731 78733 78738 78746 78703 78757 78756 78752 78751 78705 78701 78735 78736 78704 78741 78737 78749 78745 78702 78742 78725 78723 78722 78721 78724 78754 78758 78653 78734 78732 78739 78748 78744 78617 78652 78747 78719 78612 City of Austin Jurisdiction as of 10.1.2004 City of Austin Housing Starts by ZIP Code January 1, 2000 through October 1, 2004 Single Family Units 12 392 0 215 80 0 4 259 171 369 26 1,802 0 181 23 75 508 5 451 518 0 26 167 184 99 24 13 411 139 0 1,126 211 78 989 477 207 772 2,110 1,250 478 104 80 366 428 41 21 32 366 15,290 Duplex/Tri& Four-plex Multifamily Demolished Units Units Units 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 47 29 127 53 0 0 36 6 16 9 0 0 253 0 64 0 32 4 0 0 18 0 0 0 457 0 34 59 5 0 3 45 15 232 33 86 2 23 18 2 1 1,712 0 0 0 0 0 0 222 239 102 681 386 0 0 535 8 12 0 0 1,676 1,770 0 552 146 0 0 0 0 836 0 0 0 1,855 0 1,199 1,198 246 452 300 1,050 466 177 0 853 1,098 0 0 212 40 16,311 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 102 91 84 34 0 0 24 19 8 1 1 0 6 0 0 3 24 4 3 1 5 0 0 0 21 3 35 24 13 0 5 2 1 53 20 5 1 40 13 4 7 661 ZIP Code 78613 78617 78652 78653 78660 78681 78701 78702 78703 78704 78705 78717 78719 78721 78722 78723 78724 78725 78726 78727 78728 78729 78730 78731 78732 78733 78734 78735 78736 78738 78739 78741 78742 78744 78745 78746 78747 78748 78749 78750 78751 78752 78753 78754 78756 78757 78758 78759 Totals 78613 78717 78645 78634 78681 78664 78641 78729 78728 78660 78727 78726 78759 78753 78750 78730 78731 78733 78738 78746 78703 78757 78756 78752 78751 78705 78701 78735 78736 78704 78741 78737 78749 78745 78702 78742 78725 78723 78722 78721 78724 78754 78758 78653 78734 78732 78739 78748 78744 78617 78652 78747 78719 78612 City of Austin Jurisdiction as of 10.1.2004 78613 78717 78645 78634 78681 78664 78641 78729 78728 78660 78727 78726 78759 78753 78750 78730 78731 78733 78738 78746 78703 78757 78756 78752 78751 78705 78701 78735 78736 78704 78741 78737 78749 78745 78702 78742 78725 78723 78722 78721 78724 78754 78758 78653 78734 78732 78739 78748 78744 78617 78652 78747 78719 78612 500 Plus Units 200 to 500 Units 100 to 200 Units 50 to 100 Units < than 50 Units 78613 78717 78645 78634 78681 78664 78641 78729 78728 78660 78727 78726 78759 78753 78750 78730 78731 78733 78738 78746 78703 78757 78756 78752 78751 78705 78701 78735 78736 78704 78741 78737 78749 78745 78702 78742 78725 78723 78722 78721 78724 78754 78758 78653 78734 78732 78739 78748 78744 78617 78652 78747 78719 78612 50,000 Plus Persons 40,000 to 50,000 30,000 to 40,000 20,000 to 30,000 10,000 to 20,000 Less than 10,000 78613 78717 78645 78634 78681 78664 78641 78729 78728 78660 78727 78726 78759 78753 78750 78730 78731 78733 78738 78746 78703 78757 78756 78752 78751 78705 78701 78735 78736 78704 78741 78737 78749 78745 78702 78742 78725 78723 78722 78721 78724 78754 78758 78653 78734 78732 78739 78748 78744 78617 78652 78747 78719 78612 7,000 Plus Persons 5,000 to 7,000 3,000 to 5,000 1,000 to 3,000 500 to 1,000 Less than 500 City of Austin Population and Household Forecast by ZIP Code Forecast Methodology Summary Census 2000 data for population and households for ZIP Codes that fall within the City of Austin are used as the model's foundation. Housing starts data are added to each ZIP Code, assumptions about occupancy rates and household sizes are applied to the model, and a mid-decade estimate of population and households is made for each ZIP Code. The final 2010 forecast figure for each ZIP Code is derived by taking into account the amount of buildable residential land and the overall momentum of the ZIP Code in terms of housing generation. The forecast disaggregates the City's total population forecast figure for 2010, using it as a control total, and each ZIP Code is assigned a portion of the projected overall growth for the City. Annexations that occurred (and the population and households contained within these areas) during the first half of the decade are taken into account, but no further annexations are assumed to occur during the forecast period. It should be noted that the assumption of no further annexation activity on the part of the City is unrealistic, however, it is the forecasting philosophy of the City not assume the territorial capture of any additional jurisdiction due to the inherently uncertain nature of annexation success and failure and the operational difficulty of predicting the size and scope of realized annexation events. Some urban core redevelopment and in-fill housing construction is assumed, but the current trajectory of suburban growth outpacing inner-city growth is assumed to hold constant over the brief forecast period. Some ZIP Codes are wholly contained within the City of Austin while some ZIP Codes straddle the city limit line and are only partially within the City. This forecast pertains to only the City of Austin jurisdictional pieces of ZIP Codes. Step One Base year 2000 ZIP Code-level population and household totals are the aggregation of block-level data into the larger ZIP Code areal unit. The ZIP figures are not from the Census Bureau's so-called ZIP Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTAs), but rather are directly from census blocks grouped together to represent a ZIP Code. This is an important distinction as figures from the Bureau's ZCTAs may not always match the aggregated totals from all of a ZIP Code's constituent blocks. Simply put, the true population of an area defined by a ZIP Code is more accurately captured using the aggregated block-level data. The "block aggregation" method also allows for a complete accounting of City blocks, which further facilitates subsequent steps performed in the model. Step Two Population within each ZIP Code is subsetted into Population within Housing Units and so-called Group Quarters (GQ) Population, or simply, population not in households. GQ population lives in some sort of institutionalized setting: a nursing home, a sorority house, or a correctional facility of some sort. In the case of the City of Austin, out of the 656,562 persons officially counted by Census 2000, 20,130 persons were classified as GQ. The size of the City's GQ population is assumed to remain constant throughout the forecast period. Step Three Housing starts are geo-coded and attached to the ZIP Code in which the start occurs. Housing units by type of unit (single family, duplex, tri and fourplex, and multifamily) are summed up by ZIP Code and folded into the model. Step Four Household sizes by unit type are used to derive total population yield for housing units added for each ZIP Code. Each ZIP Code's total population is factored into an algorithm that transforms the raw population figure into a growth factor, or portion of total City growth that may be assigned to the ZIP Code. Because the City's overall population forecast is used as a control total, so-called aggregation bias is mitigated by treating each ZIP Code's growth factor as the assignment scalar. Model Benefits and Limitations This model is a cousin to what is known in the business as a "simple building permit model." Basically, it assumes that the bulk of population growth comes from the addition of new housing units and that these new units along with the existing stock are largely occupied. Because growth factors are generated and employed rather than raw calculated population figures, some steering of the results is possible. The model is simple in terms of input elements and base information. Forecasting theory says that modeling elegance is achieved through simplicity, and that elegance is a modeling strategy that minimizes error, as opposed to increasing risk and the possibility of greater accuracy. This modeling approach also tends to favor suburban realms of forecast entities because that's where most housing is being built. The model does not fully account for the more inner-city urban dynamics of spiking household sizes, as in the case of immigrant laborers sharing housing accommodations; nor does this model fully account for larger-scale household compositional change, as is currently occurring in east Austin where large Latino families are replacing much smaller African-American households. And yet, this simple model does indicate with a relatively high level of confidence, the direction and general magnitude of population and household growth within the City. Technical Note Software used in this analysis include: UNIX Workstation Arc/INFO 8.3, SAS, Excel, Access, Adobe Acrobat and Word.