SSG WI Load Forecast Process SSG WI Load Process by bobbybrull

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									SSG-WI Load Forecast Process

1.   SSG-WI Load Process - Data Sources
     • Power flow had 21 areas
           o Model requires 21 sets of monthly peak and energy numbers
     • WECC 2002 Load & Resource report
           o Six WI Regions (NWPP-Canada, NWPP-US, RMPA, Az/NM/s.Nv, California, Mexico)
           o Monthly data: for last year (2001), projection of current year (2002), and forecast of next
               year (2003)
           o 10 year forecast for Winter Peak, Summer Peak, and Annual Energy
     • FERC 714 Report
     • Hourly data for control areas
     • Some companies, but by no means all, submitted forecasts
           o Some Annual Peak, Annual Energy by year
           o Some Winter Peak, Summer Peak, Annual Energy by year
           o Some Monthly Peak, Monthly Energy

2.   Derivation of 2008 and 2013 monthly estimates
     • Escalated WECC regional monthly data (2003) by annual growth rates in WECC L&R Report to
         get regional monthly pattern for 2008 and 2013
     • Scaled regional monthly pattern to hit annual energy and seasonal (Winter/Summer) peaks in
         WECC L&R Report by region (any differences are due to rounding)
     • Sorted FERC 714 data by company into areas and regions
     • Used company monthly forecast for 2008 and 2013 when available
     • Constructed company monthly peak and energy number from historic hourly data
              o Scaled monthly peaks and energy to 2008 and 2013 forecasts if available
              o Applied annual growth rates to monthly data if no forecast was available
                          Applied lower rate to rural systems, higher to urban using analyst judgment
     • Assembled company data into the 21 power flow areas
     • Assembled areas into the six WECC regions
     • Totaled area monthly peak and energy for each region
     • Scaled area monthly peak and energy to hit L&R Report annual energy and Winter/Summer peaks
              o E.g. if annual energy was 3% low for a region, all monthly energy numbers in the region
                  were multiplied by 0.97

3.   Sent load estimates to SSG-WI members for review and correction
     • Received comments from several members

4.   Implemented changes and resubmitted for further review

5.   Loaded monthly data into model




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RMATS Load Forecast Process

1.   RMATS Load Process - Data Sources
     • Power flow split into 33 areas
          o Within Rocky Mountain sub-region, current load forecasts were split into new areas
          o Outside Rocky Mountain sub-region , intent was to use SSG-WI forecasts
                         WECC 2003 L&R Report was now available - Energy loads were higher, some
                         changes to peaks
     • WECC 2003 Load & Resource report
          o Six WI Regions (NWPP-Canada, NWPP-US, RMPA, Az/NM/s.Nv, California, Mexico)
          o Monthly data: for last year (2002), projection of current year (2003), and forecast of next
               year (2004)
          o 10 year forecast for Winter Peak, Summer Peak, and Annual Energy

2.   Derivation of 2008 and 2013 monthly estimates -Within RMATS
     • Add up forecasts by area

3.   Derivation of 2008 and 2013 monthly estimates -Outside of RMATS region
     • Assembled SSG-WI monthly forecast into regions
     • Scaled SSG-WI monthly forecast to hit annual energy and Winter/Summer Peaks by region

4.   Issues identified after January 26, 2004 technical review
     • No forecast of WAPA loads in Montana
     • Some 2013 area monthly peaks and two area monthly energy numbers were below 2008 monthly
         estimate.
              o Entirely outside of region
              o Only spring months (Feb-May) and September
              o This problem was also present in the SSG-WI data
              o Summer and Winter peak and total Annual Energy matches

5.   Suggested and implemented fixes to 2008 Load Forecast
        • WAPA Upper Missouri loads have now been taken from SSG-WI forecast
             o Added to Montana bubbles by the ratio of SSG-WI WAUM power flow bus loads

6.   Suggested fixes to 2013 Load Forecast for next round of studies
     • Outside of RMATS
             o Move some energy to low months so no month is negative
             o Check monthly peak MW estimates to make sure that 2013 is at least 105% of 2008 by
                  month by area (only changes spring months and September)

7.   Get SSG-WI to work on better load forecasts for 2004 planning effort
     • Better data checking
            o No negative peak or energy growth without explanation




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