A POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT FORECAST FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY REPORT

A POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT FORECAST FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY REPORT PREPARED BY DR. TIM CHAPIN THE DEPARTMENT OF URBAN AND REGIONAL PLANNING FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY June 2003 This report resulted in large part from the work of the students in URP 5261, Forecasting for Urban Development, Spring Quarter 2003. The course was taught by Dr. Tim Chapin of the Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Florida State University. Spring, 2003 URP5261 Students Sheri Baker James Boyle Lauren Brooks* Keely Brown Allison Bryan Autumn Butler Sara Campney* Marion Cook Todd DeLong* Nicole Fernandez Deborah Flowers Michelle Freeman* Catherine Hartley Catherine Heath* Tamaya Huff John Peter John Patrick Faye Jones Peter Koeppel* Sean Loughlin Kenya Milton* Capehart Perkins Franklin Price* Yolanda Reynolds Rosil Saldana Tita Sokoloff* Darin Stavish Jenah Thornborrow Lara-Mae Webster* Jana Zmud *Special recognition is due these students. These students produced the best final projects in the course and some of the content in this report is derived from their work. Acknowledgements The project team would like to thank those individuals who agreed to interviews, provided planning documents, and otherwise took time to help out with this project. In particular, Alan Pierce was of tremendous help in gathering data, answering questions, and providing insights on local conditions. Project Staff Report Author: DURP Planner-In-Residence: DURP Department Chairperson: Project Assistant: Dr. Tim Chapin Harrison Higgins, AICP Dr. Charles Connerly Michelle Freeman A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report presents the findings of an analysis of Franklin County’s current and future population and employment. This report was undertaken as part of the County’s ongoing Comprehensive Plan Update, brought about in part due to emerging development pressures in the county. This report analyzes current and emerging population and employment trends in the county, outlines separate population and employment growth scenarios for the county, and presents a population and employment forecast for the county. The key findings of the two major elements of this report are summarized below. Key Findings Concerning Franklin County’s Population (Sections 1-3) 1) Franklin County’s population has continued to increase over time, but at rates generally lower than those of neighboring counties and much lower than those for the region and the state. However, Franklin County has grown and will likely continue to grow apart from any increases that might be related to large-scale real estate development in the county. 2) While historic population growth is a factor in the county’s growth, emerging development trends in the county indicate that substantial population growth will occur as a result of several large scale residential developments currently under construction or planned for the county. After consideration of the factors driving growth in Franklin County a population forecast was completed. This population forecasts predicts that Franklin County’s population will grow from 9,829 residents in 2000, to 12,912 in 2010, 15,690 in 2020, and 20,038 in 2030. This forecast, therefore, predicts that the county will double its population in the next thirty years. Unlike neighboring counties, Franklin County is not expected to experience exponential population increases in the coming decades. Instead, Franklin County is predicted to continue to be a growing, but still largely rural county that continues to be desirable as a destination for second home buyers, day trippers, and retirees. Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Key Findings Concerning Franklin County’s Employment (Sections 4-6) 1) Though a small county, Franklin County has a robust local economy that has over threethousand employees working in very diverse industries. In addition, Franklin County’s economy has already experienced a substantial transition from a resource-based economy to a tourism/recreation based economy. However, while tourism appears to be thriving in Franklin County, resource-based employment still plays a major role in the local economy. 2) Analysis indicates that Franklin County’s economy more closely mirrors the economies of large urbanized counties in the region that have experienced growth in recent decades, rather than the smaller, rural counties. 3) The employment growth scenario indicates that Franklin County’s economy is expected to grow substantially in the next 20 years, continuing its transition from a small rural county with an economy partly based in resource-based employment to a growing, more developed county whose economic base lies in several industries. After consideration of the factors driving economic growth in Franklin County a forecast was completed. The employment forecasts predicts that Franklin County’s total employment will grow from 3,453 in 2000, to 4,531 in 2010, and 5,554 in 2020. Industries expected to experience the most job growth include construction, real estate, and accommodations and food services. In addition, state government employment is expected to increase substantially, related almost entirely to plans for a new state prison in the county. Only one industry is predicted to experience a decline in the coming two decades; fishing. Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning Florida State University Table of Contents Section Section 1.0 Population Trends Analysis 1.1 The Franklin County Context 1.2 Population Growth Trends in the County, Region, and State 1.3 The Demographic Makeup of the County and Region 1.4 Socioeconomic Characteristics of the County and Region Page 1 1 3 5 8 Section 2.0 A Population Growth Scenario for Franklin County 2.1 Dimensions of Growth in Franklin County 2.2 Factors Driving Population Increases in Franklin County 2.3 Factors Limiting Population Increases in Franklin County 2.4 Potential Analogues for Modeling Franklin County’s Population Growth 2.5 A Population Growth Scenario for Franklin County, 2000-2030 10 10 13 16 20 22 Section 3.0 A Population Forecast for Franklin County 3.1 Summary of Population Data Used in this Study 3.2 The Tiered Forecasting Approach 3.3 Projection Methodologies for Historic Growth Trends 3.4 Projection Methodologies for New Development Impacts 3.5 The Combined Population Forecast for Franklin County 24 24 25 25 34 36 i Section 4.0 Economic Trends Analysis 4.1 The Franklin County Economic Context 4.2 Comparing the Franklin County, the State of Florida, and the United States Economies 4.3 Comparing the Economies of Franklin County and Other Counties in the Region 38 38 39 42 Section 5.0 An Employment Growth Scenario for Franklin County 5.1 Factors Driving Employment Growth in Franklin County 5.2 Factors Limiting Employment Growth in Franklin County 5.3 An Employment Growth Scenario for Franklin County, 2000-2020 47 47 49 51 Section 6.0 An Economic Forecast for Franklin County 6.1 A Two Stage Forecasting Approach 6.2 Summary of Employment Data Used in this Study 6.3 The Forecasting Approach, 2000-2010 6.4 Results of the Projection Methods, 2000-2010 6.5 The Forecasting Approach, 2010-2020 6.6 Results of the Projection Methods, 2010-2020 6.7 The Combined Employment Forecast for Franklin County, 2000-2020 6.8 Percent Employment by Industry for Franklin County, 2000-2020 53 53 55 58 63 69 70 72 74 7.0 References and Web Resources 7.1 Reference 7.2 Web Resources 75 75 76 ii List of Maps Maps Map 1.1 Florida’s Great Northwest Map 1.2 Franklin County Base Map Map 3.1 Regional Planning Councils Page 2 2 28 List of Figures Figures Figure 1.1 Population of Franklin County Figure 1.2 Franklin County Percent Population by Age and Sex, 2000 Figure 1.3 State of Florida Percent Population by Age and Sex, 2000 Figure 2.1 Walton County Population Growth, 1940-2000 Figure 2.2 Visualizing Franklin County’s Population Growth Scenario, 2000-2030 Figure 3.1 Franklin County Projections, 200-2030: Extrapolation Method Figure 3.2 Franklin County Projections, 200-2030: Simple Ratio Method Figure 3.3 Franklin County Projections, 200-2030: Complex Ratio Method Figure 3.4 Franklin County Projections, 200-2030: Cohort Component Method Figure 3.5 Franklin County’s Population Forecast, 2010-2030 Page 3 7 7 21 23 27 29 30 32 37 iii List of Tables Tables Table 1.1 Population Changes in Franklin County, Florida’s Great Northwest, and the State of Florida, 1900-2000 Table 1.2 Population Growth in Franklin County and Neighboring Counties, 1970-2000 Table 1.3 Population Composition of Franklin County, the State of Florida, and Neighboring Counties, 2000 Table 1.4 Socioeconomic Indicators Comparison of Franklin County, the State of Florida, and Neighboring Counties Table 3.1 Advantages and Disadvantages of the Extrapolation Technique Table 3.2 Advantages and Disadvantages of the Ratio Techniques Table 3.3 Advantages and Disadvantages of the Cohort Component Technique Table 3.4 ‘Best Fitting’ Population Projections by Method Table 3.5 ‘Best Fitting’ Population Projection Growth Rates Table 3.6 ‘Best Fitting’ Projections: Net Population Changes by Decade Table 3.7 Total Impacts of New Development Table 3.8 The Franklin County Population Forecast, 2010-2030 Table 4.1 Employment by Industry in Franklin County, the State of Florida, and the United States, 2000 Table 4.2 Percentage of Employment by Industry in Franklin County, the State of Florida, and the United States, 2000 Table 4.3 Employment by Industry in Franklin County and Neighboring Counties, 2000 Table 4.4 Percentage of Employment by Industry in Franklin County and Neighboring Counties, 2000 Table 4.5 Population and Employment in Florida’s Great Northwest, 2000 Page 4 4 5 9 26 28 30 33 33 33 35 36 40 41 43 44 45 iv Table 5.1 Total Employment in Franklin County if the Population Forecast is Accurate and the Current Population to Employment Ratio Holds Over Time Table 5.2 Summary of Expected Employment Changes by Industry Table 6.1 Data Sources for the Franklin County Employment Analysis Table 6.2 Employment Projections by Industry in Franklin County Using the Constant-Share Method, 2010 Table 6.3 Employment Projections by Industry in Franklin County Using the ShiftShare Method, 2010 Table 6.4 An Employment Forecast by Industry for Franklin County, 2010 Table 6.5 Employment by Industry in Franklin County, 2000 and 2010 Table 6.6 Employment Projections by Industry in Franklin County, 2020 Table 6.7 An Employment Forecast by Industry for Franklin County, 2020 Table 6.8 Combined Employment Forecast by Industry for Franklin County, 2000-2020 48 52 57 64 65 67 68 70 71 73 v A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County SECTION 1.0 POPULATION TRENDS ANALYSIS 1.1 The Franklin County Context Franklin County is one of 67 counties in Florida and is located on the coast in the northwest part of the state. It is approximately 70 miles southwest of the state’s capital, Tallahassee, Florida. Franklin County’s current boundaries encompass 545 square miles and a total of 348,800 acres, making it one of the larger counties (by area) in the state. As shown in Map 1.1, Franklin County is bordered by Wakulla, Liberty, and Gulf Counties. Map 1.1. also includes the entirety of ‘Florida’s Great Northwest’ the new name for Florida’s Panhandle, a moniker aggressively used by government and business throughout the region to help market the area. There are currently two municipalities in Franklin County, Carrabelle and Apalachicola and a total of 26 unincorporated areas, including Alligator Point, Carrabelle Beach, Eastpoint, Lanark Village, and St. George Island. Map 1.2 illustrates the location of the major cities in the county, as well as the location of publicly owned lands, wetlands, and property owned by the St. Joe Company in the eastern end of the county. Map 1.2 also shows the location of two large new developments currently under development in Franklin County. Franklin County’s land ownership is dominated by two major landowners: 1) the public sector and 2) the St. Joe Company. Approximately 245,200 acres (approximately 70%) of the county is currently owned by the state or federal government, with this total only expected to increase in the coming years as the state, in particular, adds to their holdings in the county (Pierce, 2003). For example, the state agreed in April, 2003 to purchase over 37,000 acres of land in Franklin County that lies adjacent to Tate’s Hell State Forest (Ritchie, 2003). St. Joe owns over 55,000 acres of land in Franklin County, the vast majority of which lies at Franklin County’s eastern end, in an area generally referred to as St. James Island. After reaching an agreement with the county and state in early 2003, St. Joe has begun developing SummerCamp, a 499 home community on 784 acres in eastern Franklin County. This project is one of several planned or under construction residential communities in the county. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 1 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 2 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County 1.2 Population Growth Trends in the County, Region, and State The 2000 Census places Franklin County’s population at 9,829, making Franklin the state’s 64th most populous county.1 Although not heavily populated when compared to much of the state, growth in the region as a whole and emerging development pressures suggest that Franklin County will likely be experiencing growth at rates above their historic levels. These growth pressures are discussed in more detail in Section 2.0. Historically, though, Franklin County has remained a sparsely populated, largely rural county since it was founded in 1832. Even with growth rates at and above ten percent in recent decades, the county still has only 10,000 full-time residents. Figure 1.1 illustrates Franklin County’s slow growth trend. Figure 1.1: Population of Franklin County, 1840-2000 12,000 10,000 Population 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 18 40 18 60 18 70 18 80 18 90 19 90 19 10 19 20 19 30 19 40 19 50 19 60 19 70 19 80 19 90 20 00 Year Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 In contrast to Franklin County’s relatively steady, but slow growth over the past few decades the region and the state have grown significantly. Table 1.1 shows the gross population increases and growth rates for Franklin County, Florida’s Great Northwest, and the State of Florida since 1900. Table 1.1 illustrates that while the state and region have boomed in terms of overall population, Franklin County has been bypassed somewhat by the tremendous growth. During the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s both the region and state grew by over 20%, while Franklin County experienced more moderate population increases. See Section 3.1.2 for a discussion of adjustments made to the county’s 2000 population total due to inaccuracies in the original Census 2000 population counts. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 3 1 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Table 1.1 Population Changes in Franklin County, Florida’s Great Northwest, and the State of Florida, 1900-2000 Florida's Great Northwest Percent Change 31.1% 11.5% 9.6% 20.4% 32.2% 39.2% 17.9% 25.0% 21.9% 20.5% Franklin County Florida Percent Population Change 528,542 752,619 42.4% 968,470 28.7% 1,468,211 51.6% 1,897,414 29.2% 2,771,305 46.1% 4,951,560 78.7% 6,789,443 37.1% 9,746,324 43.6% 12,937,926 32.7% 15,982,378 23.5% Percent Year Population Change Population 1900 4,890 158,748 1910 5,201 6.4% 208,170 1920 5,318 2.2% 232,172 1930 6,283 18.1% 254,386 1940 5,991 -4.6% 306,264 1950 5,814 -3.0% 404,824 1960 6,576 13.1% 563,646 1970 7,065 7.4% 664,720 1980 7,661 8.4% 830,811 1990 8,967 17.0% 1,013,155 2000 9,829 9.6% 1,221,264 Source: US Census Bureau A comparison Franklin County to neighboring counties along the coast yields a similar conclusion: Franklin County has yet to experience population growth at levels concurrent with those of other coastal counties. Table 1.2 shows that Franklin County’s growth rates generally fall well below those of most of the neighboring counties. Table 1.2 Population Growth in Franklin County and Neighboring Counties, 1970-2000 Franklin Walton Bay Gulf Wakulla County County County County County Percent Year Pop. Change 1970 7,065 1980 7,661 8.4% 1990 8,967 17.0% 2000 9,829 9.6% Pop. 16,087 21,300 27,760 40,601 Percent Change Percent Percent Percent Pop. Change Pop. Change Pop. Change 75,283 10,096 6,308 32.4% 97,740 29.8% 10,658 5.6% 10,887 72.6% 30.3% 126,994 29.9% 11,504 7.9% 14,202 30.4% 46.3% 148,217 16.7% 14,560* 26.6% 22,863 61.0% *Gulf County had a new state prison open in 1992 bringing an additional 1,200 'residents' to the county. Source: US Census Bureau A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 4 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Central Finding: As a whole, an analysis of longer-term historic and more recent growth rates indicates that Franklin County’s population has continued to increase over time, but at rates generally lower than those for neighboring counties and much lower than those for the region and the state as a whole. However, not to be lost in this analysis is the conclusion that Franklin County has grown and continues to grow apart from any increases that might be related to St. Joe’s and other large real estate developer’s plans for the county. From this initial review of historic population data, it can be concluded that Franklin County’s population will likely continue to increase whether or not large scale housing developments come to the county in the coming years. 1.3 The Demographic Makeup of the County and Region 1.3.1 Race and Ethnicity Table 1.3 summarizes the racial and ethnic makeup of Franklin County, the state, and neighboring counties. Franklin County is in many ways a typical northwest Florida county with a population composed primarily of two racial groups: Whites and African Americans. This generally reflects the state’s population, although the state has a greater percentage of other racial minorities. However, Franklin County’s population composition is very similar to other neighboring counties. The county has a much smaller percentage of Hispanics than the state, however, this low percentage is generally mirrored by neighboring counties. Table 1.3 Population Composition of Franklin County, the State of Florida, and Neighboring Counties, 2000 Race White African American Other Races Percent Hispanic Florida 78.0% 14.6% 7.4% 16.8% Franklin County 81.2% 16.3% 2.5% 2.4% Walton County 88.4% 7.0% 4.6% 2.2% Bay County 84.2% 10.6% 5.2% 2.4% Gulf County 79.9% 16.9% 3.2% 2.0% Wakulla County 86.1% 11.5% 2.4% 1.9% Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 5 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County 1.3.2 Age and Gender Franklin County’s population also generally reflects Florida’s age mix, although there are some important differences between the county and the state. In both the county and state, seniors (those age 65+) make up approximately one-sixth of the population (17.6% in Florida, 15.7% in the county), whereas in the United States as a whole seniors are only one-eighth of the population (12.4%). Similarly, both the county’s and the state’s percentages of persons under age 18 (18.0% and 22.8%, respectively) are well below the percentage across the United States (25.7%). This older population is largely a function of the attractiveness of the state to retirees, as both warm weather and the lack of a state income tax bring thousands of new retirees to Florida each year. While Franklin County and Florida are similar in some ways, a more detailed look at the age-gender makeup of the population yields some very interesting differences. Figures 1.2 and 1.3 present ‘Population Pyramids’ for the county and state, respectively, that show the percentage of the total population in each age-gender cohort. For example, Figure 1.2 shows that roughly 3.0% of the total population Franklin County are males aged 25-29. Reading on the right side of this figure, females in the same age cohort account for roughly 2.5% of the total population. These figures are in many ways ‘classic’ population pyramids for populations in the United States. The ‘baby boom’ generation is easily seen in both figures as a bulge in the agerange 35-64 for both males and females. Similarly, the ‘baby bust’ that followed this generation is seen in the much smaller cohorts aged 15-29. These figures allow for a direct comparison of the age-sex composition of Franklin County and Florida. What these figures reveal is that Franklin County generally has an older population than the state, with a greater percentage of its population aged 50 and older. Similarly, the county’s inability to retain its younger adults (age-range 15-29) is clearly evident as well. While the size of these cohorts partly reflects the ‘baby bust’, the small percentage of the population in these age ranges is telling. Individuals in these age groups likely leave the county for two primary reasons: 1) to pursue educational opportunities elsewhere and 2) to seek employment opportunities in other counties in the state. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 6 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Figure 1.2 Franklin County Percent Population by Age and Sex, 2000 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% Females Males Age Cohorts Percent Population 2% 3% 4% 5% Source: 2000 Census SF1, Table P12 Figure 1.3 State of Florida Percent Population by Age and Sex, 2000 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% Females Males Age Cohorts 4% 5% Percent Population Source: 2000 Census SF1, Table P12 A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 7 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Central Finding: Franklin County is in many ways a typical north Florida county, with a population largely composed of Whites and African-Americans and with a small percentage of other racial and ethnic minorities. Similarly, Franklin County reflects the state’s older population makeup. However, Franklin County is clearly older than the state as a whole and its inability to retain its younger populations which is indicative of a rural county that struggles to provide educational and employment opportunities for its residents. 1.4 Socioeconomic Characteristics of the County and Region The lack of employment and educational opportunities indicated by the review of Franklin County’s population comparison is supported by an analysis of county socioeconomic indicators. Table 1.4 provides a comparison of Franklin County, the state, and neighboring counties on key socioeconomic indicators. These figures reveal that Franklin County is generally less wealthy and less well-educated than the state and neighboring counties. Reflecting these attributes, Franklin County has the highest poverty rates of this set, a figure that places it among the counties with the worst poverty rates in the state. However, these statistics are not altogether surprising given that small, rural counties generally exhibit these attributes. While the county experiences greater poverty rates, there are indications of substantial wealth in the community. Table 1.4 reveals that Franklin County has a median value of owner occupied units almost equal to that of the state and well above that of the comparison counties. This statistic reflects the thousands of high-end residences that have been built along the barrier islands and along the coast of Franklin County. Central Finding: The socioeconomic indicators also illustrate that Franklin County is a typical small, north Florida county, with a less-wealthy and lesser-educated population when compared to the state. The one major difference between Franklin County and its neighbors lies in the value of its owner occupied housing. These statistics indicate that Franklin County has a owner occupied housing stock that is much greater value than that in neighboring counties. However, at the same time, these statistics do not reveal the substantial number of mobile home units in the county, nor the fact that mobile home owners are being priced out of the county due to rising property values (Franklin County Roundtable, 2003). A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 8 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Table 1.4 Socioeconomic Indicators Comparison of Franklin County, the State of Florida, and Neighboring Counties Indicator Median Household Income, 1999 Percent Persons Below Poverty, 1999 Percent High School Graduates, 2000 Percent College Graduates, 2000 Percent Home Ownership, 2000 Florida $38,819 12.5% 79.9% 22.3% 70.1% Franklin County $26,756 17.7% 68.3% 12.4% 79.2% Walton County $32,407 14.4% 76.0% 16.2% 79.0% $96,400 Bay County $36,092 13.0% 81.0% 17.7% 68.6% $93,500 Gulf County $30,276 16.7% 72.6% 10.1% 81.0% $77,200 Wakulla County $37,149 11.3% 78.4% 15.7% 84.2% $96,200 Median Value of Owner $105,500 $105,300 Occupied Units, 2000 Source: Census State and County Quickfacts A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 9 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County SECTION 2.0 A POPULATION GROWTH SCENARIO FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY Proper population forecasting requires the development of a plausible and accurate growth scenario that outlines the type of growth expected in the county and that identifies the factors that are driving population growth in the community. In addition, it is useful to identify those factors that serve to limit growth in the county. This section presents a growth scenario for Franklin County through the year 2030. This scenario was developed through interviews with local experts on Franklin County, reviews of planning documents and print media, and analysis of population and economic data for the county, the region, and the state. 2.1 Dimensions of Growth in Franklin County A key element in developing a population forecast for Franklin County lies in understanding current and emerging growth pressures in the county. The previous section provides some insights into the local conditions in the county, but also underscores that Franklin County is experience not one, but two different growth pressures: 1) Historic Growth Trends and 2) Emerging Development Trends. These pressures are discussed further below. There is also the issue of part-time residents and day trippers in Franklin County, an issue that will also receive some attention below. 2.1.1 Historic Population Growth Section 1.2 illustrated that Franklin County has experienced growth in the past thirty years at growth rates ranging from 7.5% to 17.0%. This growth is in part due to the continued attractiveness of Florida and the region to retirees and younger families that come to the state and region for the climate and the still growing economy. There is every expectation that the state and the region will continue to grow in the coming decades. Reflecting this, the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) projects Florida’s population to grow to 24.5 million residents by 2030, an increase of roughly 53%. Similarly, BEBR projects Florida’s Great Northwest to have over 1.7 million new residents by 2030, an increase of over 42%. Given the continued growth of the state and region, it is reasonable to expect Franklin County to continue to experience population growth in the coming years. Reflecting this ongoing 10 A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County growth, the number of new home start-ups have numbered between 130 and 180 between 2000 and 2002 (Census Bureau Building Permit Data, 2003). Planning staff in the county estimate that between 1990 and 2002 there were 1,350 building permits for houses and 1,000 building permits for mobile homes issued (Pierce, 2003). In sum, the county continues to add new homes and new residents, generating population increases in the coming years. 2.1.2 Emerging Development Trends While historic population growth is a factor in the county’s growth, the issue driving this effort to develop a population forecast for the county largely revolves around emerging development trends in the county. As detailed earlier, a major landowner in the county, St. Joe/Arvida, has begun construction on a 499 home development in the eastern end of Franklin County called SummerCamp. This development will be one of the largest planned communities in the county’s history and it may portend the emergence of Franklin County as a very desirable location for large-scale residential development. Throughout the county’s history, residential development has typically come in incremental increases to the housing stock, not through largescale projects such as SummerCamp. In addition to SummerCamp, other large scale developments have broken ground in the county. St. James Bay is a 370 acre residential community that will be Franklin County’s first golf community. With upwards of 500 homes at final buildout, St. James Bay is another project that, if successful, will provide evidence that there is a market for golf communities in the county. Gramercy Plantation is another project that has been in development for years. Originally slated as a golf community, current plans call for approximately 160 homes, but no golf course. Other smaller developments, such as the thirty-three lot Hidden Harbor development, are also at various stages of the planning development process at this time. These large scale development projects represent the second major growth pressure influencing Franklin County’s future population levels. While individually these projects will not add substantially to the county’s population (see Section 2.1.3 below for further discussion of the full-time/part-time residential population issue), cumulatively they could contribute to substantially higher growth rates than previously experienced in the county. In addition, there is A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 11 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County a consensus that the financial success of these projects would lead to further large scale development projects in the county by St. Joe and other developers. While St. Joe has not made public any other development plans for Franklin County, their emergence as a major residential real estate development entity and their substantial land holdings along the Gulf Coast offer the potential for other development projects in the coming decades. 2.1.3 Day Trippers and Part-Time Residents in Franklin County One final issue requiring some discussion is that of part-time residents and day trippers in the county. While Franklin County’s official residential population is currently estimated at around 10,000 people, the county experiences massive influxes of seasonal and day visitors to enjoy the environmental and small-town amenities offered by the county. Local insiders estimate St. George Island’s population to be upwards of 15,000 people during the peak summer months (Franklin County Roundtable, 2003). While an influx of people to an area brings dollars to the local economy, there are also substantial direct and indirect costs associated with these day trippers and part-time residents. These visitors require services from the local government, such as waste management or police and fire services. They also require infrastructure in place to service these groups such as roads, potable water, and sewer services. While the positive impact on local economies and service demands of these nonpermanent residents are clear, there is no easy way to capture the number of day trippers and part-time residents in the county at any point in time. For this reason it is very difficult to generate projections for these groups. Consequently, population forecasts will often simply ignore these groups and make no effort to count them. However, given the needs of Franklin County to have an estimate of these part-time residents, an effort has been made to project the increase in part-time residents in the county in the coming years. Using the idea of a ‘functional population’, part-time residents can be counted and included in a forecast of full-time residents (Nelson and Nicholas, 1992). Under the functional population concept, part-time residents are valued as a proportion of how much time they are expected to spend in the area. For example, if an individual lives in a house in Franklin A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 12 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County County for three months of the year, they are counted as one-quarter (.25) of a full time resident. More detail on this methodology is supplied in Technical Appendix A. Unfortunately, an estimate and subsequent projection of day trippers is beyond the scope of this study. This very fluid group is very difficult to estimate as there is no easy means to capture data on them. Indirect measures, such as traffic counts on major highways or counts of automobiles in public parking lots, offer one possibility. Because of the difficulty in capturing this group, no effort has been made to estimate and then project day trippers in this report. 2.1.4 A Tiered Approach to Forecasting Franklin County’s Population Because Franklin County is experiencing these two related, but separable growth pressures, it was determined that a tiered projection method would yield the best population forecast for the county. Using this approach, a ‘best projection’ would be generated to account for historic growth pressures and a second ‘best projection’ would be generated to account for new development pressures in the county. In this way these two dynamic processes can be modeled more easily and more accurately. Once these separate population projections are completed, the projections can be combined to provide a population forecast for the county. In addition, the estimated population impact of new development is also tiered, as a portion of these new homes will generate full-time residents and a portion will generate part-time residents. Separate projections can be generated for new part-time and full-time residents. Once these separate projections have been made they can be included in the final population forecast for the county. 2.2 Factors Driving Population Increases in Franklin County Numerous forces are currently driving population growth in Franklin County. In addition, other factors will emerge in the near or longer-term future that will also contribute to population growth in the county. This section highlights those factors that are expected to contribute to continued population growth in the coming decades. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 13 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County 2.2.1 Historic Growth in the County As detailed in Section 1.2, Franklin County has grown at a slow, but steady rate since 1950. This growth has occurred prior to any interest by St. Joe and other large developers in the county. It is assumed that Franklin County will continue to experience a population increase over and above any activity attributable to St. Joe’s SummerCamp and other large residential development projects. 2.2.2 Continued Growth of the State and Region Related to the above, the region and the state are projected to add hundreds of thousands of residents by 2030, continuing a longer-term trend that has seen millions of new residents come to Florida from other places in the United States and from abroad. This scenario assumes that the state and region will experience continued population growth and this growth will contribute to Franklin County’s population growth. 2.2.3 Current Development Activity by St. Joe and Other Developers If successful, current residential development projects will bring upwards of 1,500 new residential units to Franklin County by 2010. In this scenario, it is assumed that these projects will be successful and buildout will be completed by 2010, bringing new permanent and parttime residents to the county over and above the historic growth trend. 2.2.4 The Emergence of Florida’s Great Northwest as a Successful ‘Brand’ for the Region Numerous entities have backed the rebranding of the Florida Panhandle with the moniker ‘Florida’s Great Northwest’. This effort has been backed by the state’s government, local governments, chambers of commerce throughout the region, and by St. Joe and other large corporations. This new ‘brand name’ is intended to establish the region as a desirable location for retirees and families that have previously been attracted to the central and southern Florida coasts. Given the massive advertising campaign behind this branding effort and the broad-based support for insuring the success of this effort, it is assumed that the Panhandle will be successfully rebranded as Florida’s Great Northwest. As a consequence, the region as a whole, and Franklin County more specifically, will establish itself as a desirable region for retirees. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 14 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County 2.2.5 Future Development Activity by St. Joe and Other Developers Reflecting the emergence of Florida’s Great Northwest, it is assumed that large scale development in Franklin County will not end with the completion of the large projects currently underway in the county. It is assumed that other large, new residential development projects will be undertaken by St. Joe or other development entities between 2010 and 2030. Reflecting the increased desirability of Franklin County to retirees and the maturation of the local economy, it is assumed that a greater number of units will come online in the decades of 2010-2020 and 2020-2030. Under this growth scenario, it is assumed that an additional 1,750 new residential units in master planned communities will be completed by 2020 followed by an additional 2,500 units between 2020-2030. 2.2.6 Aging of the Baby Boom Generation As discussed in Section 1.3.2, the state and the region have long been attractive to retirees as a place to live. As the baby boom generation ages, the number of people at retirement age will increase substantially. Even if Florida captures the same share of retirees as it has historically, the sheer volume of retirees in the baby boom generation means that the state will see a larger number of people move to the state in the next several decades. This increase in the population ‘at risk’ to retire and move to Florida suggests will contribute to population increases in the state, the region, and in Franklin County. 2.2.7 A New State Prison in Franklin County There are currently plans for a new state prison to be located in Franklin County. This prison will have two primary impacts on the future population of the county. First, prisoners will be counted as residents of the county when the prison is completed and occupied. Second, the prison will bring job opportunities to the county that may make the area more attractive as a place to live. For this scenario, it is assumed that a state prison will be built in Franklin County and populated by 2010. The prison is assumed to be of similar size to that in Gulf County (1,200 inmates). A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 15 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County 2.3 Factors Limiting Population Increases in Franklin County Despite the ongoing and emerging new growth pressures on the county, a number of factors will limit population growth from 2000-2030. These limiting factors include a combination of structural, land ownership, and cultural issues, all of which will play a part in checking the growth pressures outlined in Section 2.2. This section briefly summarizes those major factors that will act to limit population growth in the coming decades. 2.3.1 Regional Location While Franklin County’s rural setting certainly plays a role in its development potential, this has also played a historic role in limiting growth in the area. Franklin County is still in a somewhat remote setting, especially when one looks at the location of major cities in the region. Tallahassee, with a regional population of almost 300,000, and Panama City (Bay County), with a county population of 150,000 residents, are at least an hour’s drive from the county. While Franklin County is accessible via major state highways, its location is largely outside of the commuting shed of these major cities in the region. The county’s regional location therefore serves to limit the number of people living in the county. 2.3.2 Infrastructure Issues Another substantial limitation to population growth rests in the availability and quality of physical and social infrastructure in the county. While infrastructure issues can often be overcome through expenditures for upgraded or new facilities, near-term infrastructure issues will certainly act to limit population growth in Franklin County. Franklin County currently has little sewer capacity to offer to developers, with only Apalachicola currently having excess capacity (Franklin County Roundtable, 2003). The city of Carrabelle is currently working on expansions to their sewage capacity. Similarly, the county has no regional plan for water and sewer services for eastern Franklin County, a plan that would need to be put into place before many new, large residential and commercial projects could come online. The county’s potable water situation is better, largely due to the availability of potable water in the county. However, efforts to find potable water on Alligator Point and St. Joe’s recent difficulty in drilling to find potable water indicate that, while water is available, the costs A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 16 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County of finding and acquiring this water may act to limit development (Franklin County Roundtable, 2003). Transportation infrastructure in the county and region may also limit development in the near term. While the county currently has sufficient road infrastructure, substantial residential growth would almost certainly require a widening of the major east-west road through the county, SR98, and perhaps additional new roads as well. At a regional level, there has been some work towards relocating the Panama City-Bay County Airport, an effort that would bring expanded and upgraded air facilities closer to Franklin County. There has also been some very preliminary discussions concerning the future of the Apalachicola Municipal Airport. While improvements to either or both airports would increase the accessibility of Franklin County, contributing to population increases in the long run, these plans remain in the early stages and any improvements to these facilities are still years away. For the near-term, a lack of air accessibility will continue to hinder development in Franklin County. The county’s health services infrastructure also may act to limit population growth in the community, particularly among more senior retirees. Local experts indicated that the lack of medical and health services have generally led older retirees (characterized as above age 75) to relocate out of the county for better access to doctors and other medical personnel (Franklin County Roundtable, 2003). In addition, there are currently no longer any retirement homes in Franklin County. 2.3.3 Large Public Land Holdings The substantial percentage of land in Franklin County that is owned by public entities (local, state, and federal governments) will serve to limit growth in the coming decades as well. The public sector owns approximately 62% of the county, removing effectively three-fifths of the county from the development cycle. While much of these substantial holdings lie inland, the state owns pristine land along many of the barrier islands and on Bald Point (see Map 1.2) A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 17 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County 2.3.4 St Joe Land Holdings The presence of St. Joe and their plans to develop SummerCamp certainly increase the likelihood of population increases in the county at or above historic levels. However, St. Joe’s extensive land holdings, especially in eastern Franklin County (see Map 1.2), may actually act to limit development in the coming decades. With these massive land holdings, St. Joe can control the pace and form of development to their liking. To date St. Joe has given no indication of any further development plans for Franklin County. In addition, St. Joe’s approach to developing their communities appears to be one that might best be characterized as ‘deliberate’. St. Joe has shown a willingness to engage communities in their development processes and to actively participate in the public planning process. The company has also shown a propensity to plan their projects with fine detail and to begin construction only after a lengthy project planning process. In short, St. Joe has a history of moving carefully and deliberately through the planning and development process. As a consequence, any new large scale residential development projects in Franklin County that are undertaken by St. Joe will take a number of years in the planning stages prior to breaking ground. This deliberate development approach will contribute to slower growth rates in Franklin County than have been experienced in other coastal counties where a large percentage of the coastal land was not owned by a single entity. 2.3.5 The State’s Role in Limiting Development in Franklin County The state of Florida has historically shown a great interest in Franklin County and the Apalachicola Bay. Franklin County was originally listed by the state of Florida as an Area of Critical State Concern (ACSC), a designation that brings to bear further state oversight and requires state staff to review all local development projects. This designation was originally granted due to the importance of the Apalachicola Bay to the state’s environmental and economic health. Much of the area was de-designated as an ACSC in 1993. However, the state has expressed continued interest in Franklin County, an interest that led to the ongoing update of the county’s Comprehensive Plan of which this report is a part. This legacy of state oversight will continue play a role in limiting population growth in the county. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 18 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County In addition to the ACSC designation, the state of Florida has in place extensive growth management legislation that serves to manage growth development in the state. In St. Joe’s case, the SummerCamp project was limited to 499 units in part to avoid the designation of this project as a Development of Regional Impact (DRI). DRIs are large scale developments that meet certain minimum thresholds set by the state. Once designated a DRI, a project requires review and input from all jurisdictions deemed impacted by the project. In addition, DRIs require state review as well. Developers routinely work around the edges of the DRI designation in an effort to avoid this much more extensive and time consuming planning process. The DRI process can effectively act as a cap on large scale development projects, limiting the number of units in the project. These state growth management-related factors will also contribute to slower growth rates than would otherwise be expected. 2.3.6 County Culture Lastly, Franklin County’s local culture may act to limit population growth in the coming years as well. The county has a long history of low density development, low taxes, and adequate, but limited public services and infrastructure. The county currently does not allow development at densities greater than one unit per acre throughout much of the county. In addition, there are very few multi-family housing projects in the county, although 60 condominium units have been approved in the county in the last two years (Franklin County Roundtable, 2003). Franklin County also has a history of very low tax rates and, consequently, low service levels. The county has the second lowest property tax rates in the region (www.floridasgreatnorthwest.com/millage.htm). While low tax rates can make an area attractive to development, in Franklin County this has translated into limited public services and limited infrastructure (as discussed in Section 2.3.2). In addition to the political culture, there is a very strong community environmental ethic evident in Franklin County. There are numerous environmental groups that have very closely monitored St. Joe’s development plans, as well as those of other developers. In addition, public meetings held as part of the Comprehensive Plan update have underscored that many citizens in the community are interested in the development of the county. Lastly, the importance of the Apalachicola Bay to the community, the region, and the state has taken root in the local culture, A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 19 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County insuring that the development process needs to be negotiated carefully and deliberately in Franklin County. All of these factors contribute to a public culture that is prone to work against development and to slow the development process down. Taken together, these factors will act to slow growth rates in the county. 2.4 Potential Analogues for Modeling Franklin County’s Population Growth Another consideration in the development of a population forecast would be to look to the experience of other counties in the region. An identification of counties that have already experienced a transition from small rural county to growing retiree and tourism destination might provide some insights as to expected growth rates in Franklin County in the coming years. To identify these historical analogues, two primary criteria were utilized. The counties needed to be coastal counties and their population had to remain stable between 7,000 and 15,000 persons for several decades in the latter half of the 20th Century. These criteria would identify those counties that were established rural communities that began to experience growth in an era of suburbanization and mass retirement to Florida. In reviewing population trends for coastal counties in Florida, one county appears to be of particular use as an analogue for Franklin County: Walton County. Walton County is located roughly eighty miles to the west of Franklin County, along the Gulf Coast of the state. Similar to Franklin County, Walton historically is a rural county not dominated by any one large city. There are three incorporated cities in the county, DeFuniak Springs (2000 population: 5,089), Freeport (1,190), and Paxton (656). There are also a number of small unincorporated towns scattered along the coast of the county as well. Walton County is also experiencing growth due to residential projects that have been developed by St. Joe, including WaterColor and WaterSound. Lastly, as detailed in Sections 1.2-1.4, Walton County and Franklin County have similarities along many demographic and socioeconomic attributes. In sum, Walton County’s population growth over the last several decades may provide a useful model for what may occur in Franklin County in the coming decades. Figure 2.1 illustrates Walton County’s population and growth rates from 1940-2000. This figure illustrates that Walton County’s population held steady for several decades, until 1970, A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 20 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County with minimal population growth. However, once ‘discovered’ as a desirable recreation and retiree location, population growth increased dramatically. Growth rates of 3-5% in the 1940s1960s were increased tremendously and Walton County has experienced growth rates no less than 30% per decade since. While Walton County’s experience might suggest that Franklin County may see markedly increased growth rates in the coming years, these findings are tempered somewhat by one factor. Walton County lies between Bay County and Okaloosa County, both of which are home to large and fast-growing cities, Panama City and Ft. Walton Beach/Destin, respectively. Walton County is therefore sandwiched between two very fast-growing areas and some of the growth in the county is directly attributable to their regional location and growth in neighboring counties that is spilling over into Walton. Franklin County’s more remote location buffers it from experiencing this spillover effect. The counties adjacent to Franklin County are at this time growing, but none with large cities that might cause spillover growth into Franklin. However, the experience of Walton County suggests that coastal counties that emerge as desirable locations can see growth rates well above their historic levels. Figure 2.1 Walton County Population Growth, 1940-2000 45,000 40,000 35,000 50% Population Percent Change 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Percent Change Over Previous Decade 21 Population 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 1940 1950 1960 Year 1970 1980 1990 2000 A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County 2.5 A Population Growth Scenario for Franklin County, 2000-2030 Given the above factors driving growth and factors constraining growth, what does the future of Franklin County likely hold? These existing and emerging trends indicates that Franklin County’s population will no doubt increase over the next three decades. This growth will be above historic growth rates. However, while forces are driving increased growth rates, a number of forces will check these growth rates and keep them from attaining levels experienced by other coastal counties like Walton. The following assumptions are considered in the development of a population forecast for the county: 1) No wars, sustained and long-term economic recessions, or natural disasters will come to the region and devastate the county. 2) SummerCamp and other in-development projects will be built out by 2010. 3) A state prison will be funded by the state and be built by 2010 in the county. This prison will bring 1,200 new ‘residents’ to the community in the form of prisoners. 4) Additional large-scale residential projects will be developed between 2010-2030. It is assumed that an additional 1,750 new residential units in master planned communities will be completed by 2020 followed by an additional 2,500 units between 2020-2030. Given the trends identified, Franklin County’s population is expected to grow in the coming decades. Figure 2.2 summarizes these pro-growth and slow-growth trends and lays out the expected range that the population forecast should fall within. It is important to note that the two future population lines do not represent population forecasts, but rather serve as ‘brackets’ to the forecast to be generated. This section of the report is intended to offer guidance in the development of the forecast and to make explicit the assumptions and trends considered in the development of this forecast. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 22 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County 40,000 35,000 30,000 Figure 2.2 Visualizing Franklin County's Population Growth Scenario, 2000-2030 Factors Limiting Population Growth -Location -Public Land Holdings -Limited Infrastructure -St. Joe Land Holdings -State Oversight -Rural County Culture Population 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 Factors Driving Population Growth -Historic County Growth -Florida's Great NW -State/Regional Growth -Demographics -St. Joe/Other Developers -State Prison Growth Scenario Expected Population Range 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 23 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County SECTION 3.0 A POPULATION FORECAST FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY 3.1 Summary of Population Data Used in this Study 3.1.1 United States Census Bureau Data Data for generating population projections and, ultimately, a forecast for Franklin County came primarily from the United States Census Bureau. Data was retrieved primarily from the Census Bureau’s website (www.census.gov), including extensive data from the 2000 Decennial Census and historic census data as well. The Census Bureau is generally believed to provide very high quality population, demographic, and socioeconomic data for states, counties, and smaller geographies in the United States (Klosterman, 1990; Smith et al, 2001). 3.1.2 Issues with the United States Census Data Despite the general high quality of the data provided by the Census Bureau, these data do occasionally contain some errors that require adjustments by analysts. In Franklin County’s case, the 2000 Census data included a substantial error in terms of the total population count for the county. Initially the 2000 Census yielded a population count for Franklin County of 11,057 total persons. However, in reviewing these figures it was determined that prisoners in a large facility that is located in adjacent Gulf County (1,228 prisoners) were incorrectly included in Franklin County’s total population figure for 2000. A subsequent Count Question Resolution (CQR) resulted in a revision to both Franklin and Gulf Counties populations, correctly adding the 1,228 inmates to Gulf County’s population and removing them from Franklin County’s population count. This resulted in a revised total population count of 9,829 persons in Franklin County in 2000. Although the CQR program resulted in correct total population figures for Franklin County, this program does not call for further adjustments to Franklin County’s statistics. While the Census Bureau corrects the total population counts, and these corrected population counts are those used in funding formulas used by federal and state agencies, they do not make any additional corrections to data concerning the characteristics of the population in the counties affected. As a consequence, adjustments were made to demographic statistics for the county where possible. 24 A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County 3.1.3 Other Population Data Sources In addition to data from the Census Bureau, this analysis also utilized population estimates and population projections generated by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) which is housed at the University of Florida. BEBR is responsible for producing the state of Florida’s official state and local population estimates and projections (www.bebr.ufl.edu). Of particular use for this study were population projections generated by BEBR at the state, region, and county level through 2030 (BEBR, 2002). 3.2 The Tiered Forecasting Approach As detailed in Section 2.0, because Franklin County is experiencing two different growth pressures, historic growth and growth attributable to new development, it was determined that a tiered projection method would yield the best population forecast for the county. Under this approach, a set of projection methods were utilized to generate a ‘best projection’ that modeled historic growth pressures on the county. An altogether different projection method, project impact analysis, was used to generate a ‘best projection’ that accounted for growth pressures related to new residential development in the county. In this way these two dynamic processes were modeled more easily and more accurately. Once these separate population projections were completed, the projections were combined to provide a population forecast for the county. 3.3 Projection Methodologies for Historic Growth Trends In order to provide a forecast for Franklin County through 2030 a variety of methods were used. Broadly summarized, three quantitative methods were employed to generate population projections for the county. These methods were: • • • Extrapolation Method Ratio Methods: 1) Simple Ratio and 2) Complex Ratio The Cohort-Component Method A detailed description of these methodologies are provided in Technical Appendix A: Population Analysis and Forecast: Data and Methodology. However, a short description of each method is provided below. Also included in Technical Appendix A are the projected populations that were calculated using each method, and an evaluation of how well each method models the A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 25 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County data. A ‘best result’ for each method was chosen and the reasoning behind each choice is discussed at the end of each description in Technical Appendix A. 3.3.1 Extrapolation Technique The Extrapolation Technique uses past population trends to project future populations (Klosterman, 1990). This technique involves looking at past data, fitting a curve to the data, and then projecting future populations based upon the curve. There are six extrapolation techniques: Linear, Geometric, Parabolic, Modified Exponential, Gompertz, and Logistic. A linear transformation is used to make projections for each curve except the Parabolic Curve. A more detailed discussion of this method as well as the projections generated are contained in Technical Appendix A. Table 3.1 provides an overview of the advantages and disadvantages of using the Extrapolation Technique. Table 3.1 Advantages and Disadvantages of Extrapolation Technique Advantages Low data requirements Relatively easy methodology Low resource requirements Source: Klosterman, 1990 Disadvantages Aggregated data are used as both inputs and outputs Assumes that past trends can predict future figures Summary of the Extrapolation Analyses For this analysis, a total of twelve different extrapolation curves were completed, six each for the base periods 1920-2000 and 1950-2000. Other base periods were considered, but these two base periods were deemed most useful because they allowed for the modeling of potential longer term trends, which is a strength of the extrapolation approach. In addition, these base periods excluded from the analysis more historic data (pre-1920) that were deemed of little value in modeling Franklin County’s population growth in the coming decades. Figure 3.1 illustrates the ‘best fitting’ extrapolation curve projection for Franklin County, 2000-2030. For a detailing of all of the results generated by the extrapolation analyses see Technical Appendix A, Section A.1. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 26 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Figure 3.1 Franklin County Projections, 2000-2030 Extrapolation Method 16,000 14,000 12,000 Observed Extrapolation Population 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 3.3.2 Ratio Techniques Ratio techniques express the population of a smaller area as a proportion of a larger area, or pattern area, within which the smaller area is located. The primary assumption of this technique is that the growth of the smaller area will imitate the growth of the larger geographic area due to similar factors affecting both regions (ibid.). This report compares the population of Franklin County to three pattern areas: the State of Florida, Florida’s Great Northwest, and the Apalachee Region. Florida’s Great Northwest and the Apalachee Region are shown in Map 3.1. This study employs both simple and complex ratio methods. These two methods are discussed in detail, along with their projections, in Technical Appendix A. Table 3.2 presents the general strengths and weaknesses of the Ratio Techniques. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 27 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Table 3.2 Advantages and Disadvantages of Ratio Techniques Advantages Considers regional and/or statewide factors driving population changes Regional and/or state trends are often more stable than local trends, which aids predictability Utilizes high-quality projections developed for the pattern area(s) Utilizes various sets of pattern area projections to develop low, medium, and high projections for Franklin County Source: Klosterman, 1990 Disadvantages Assumes that past trends accurately predict future population levels Techniques are complex Aggregated data are used as both inputs and outputs A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 28 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Summary of the Simple Ratio Analyses A total of nine different simple ratio analyses were completed for this project: the constant-share, shift-share, and share-of-growth methods for the three different pattern areas. Figure 3.2 illustrates the ‘best fitting’ simple ratio projection for Franklin County, 2000-2030. For details on all of the results generated by the simple ratio analyses see Technical Appendix A, Section A.2. Figure 3.2 Franklin County Projections, 2000-2030 Simple Ratio Method 16,000 14,000 12,000 Observed Simple Ratio Population 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year Summary of the Complex Ratio Analyses A total of thirty-six different complex ratio projections were completed for this project: six each for the base periods 1920-2000 and 1950-2000 across each of the three different pattern areas. Figure 3.3 illustrates the ‘best fitting’ complex ratio curve projection for Franklin County. For a detailing of all of the results generated by the simple ratio analyses see Technical Appendix A, Section A.2. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 29 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County 16,000 14,000 12,000 Figure 3.3 Franklin County Projection, 2000-2030: Complex Ratio Method Observed Complex ratio Population 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 3.3.3 Cohort-Component Method The cohort-component method applies fertility, mortality, and migration (component) rates to specific age-sex cohorts (Klosterman, 1990). In order to make projections using the cohort-component method, age-sex cohorts are traced over five year periods (0-4, 5-9, … 80-84, 85+). Usually different projections are made for whites and non-whites because they experience different rates of fertility, mortality, and migration. A detailed description of the cohortcomponent model citing its assumptions and methodologies is contained within the Technical Appendix, along with the population projections computed by the model. Table 3.3 illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of this projection method. Table 3.3 Advantages and Disadvantages of Cohort-Component Method Advantages Takes into account changes in the different components of population Disaggregates inputs and outputs in terms of age, sex, and race Yields information about the size and composition of the population Source: Klosterman, 1990 Disadvantages Complex methods can be difficult to implement Complex methods can cause more errors to be made Higher data requirements A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 30 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Once the best projections were found using each method, an overall best projection was selected to guide the final forecast for Franklin County. This final forecast was chosen based on the following criteria: • How plausible its projections were through the year 2030. This standard is very important – a final forecast that predicts a 100,000-person increase in population by 2030 would obviously be inaccurate. This analysis measured the plausibility of projections based on past population trends in Franklin County. • How the projections fit in with the expected climate in Franklin County over the next 30 years. Another component that was considered in making the final forecast was the growth scenario presented in Section 2.6. The growth scenario informed the decision on how Franklin County’s population might change above and beyond the fluctuations expected through natural increase. Summary of the Cohort-Component Analysis A detailed cohort-component model was developed for this project, a model that attempted to capture the changes to the county’s population in the coming years attributable to births, deaths, and migration. Figure 3.4 illustrates the results of this cohort-component analysis for Franklin County. For a detailing of the results generated by the simple ratio analyses see Technical Appendix A, Section A.3. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 31 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Figure 3.4 Franklin County Projections, 2000-2030 Cohort Component Method 12,000 10,000 Observed Cohort Comp. Population 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 3.3.4 Selection of a Historic Trends-Based Population Forecast As shown in the previous subsections, the different methodologies generated different total population projections for Franklin County. Table 3.4 presents all of these projections in a single table. As shown in the table, all of these methods yielded population projections that were generally consistent with historic population growth trends in the county. In addition, these results generally model growth rates that are larger than those experienced in the 1990s, an expectation outlined in the Franklin County growth scenario (see Table 3.5). Lastly, Table 3.6 shows the net population changes predicted by these various population projections. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 32 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Table 3.4 ‘Best Fitting’ Population Projections by Method Best Fitting Year Observed Extrapolation 1920 5,318 1930 6,283 1940 5,991 1950 5,814 1960 6,576 1970 7,065 1980 7,661 1990 8,967 2000 9,829 2010 10,834 2020 12,020 2030 13,336 Best Fitting Simple Ratio Best Fitting Best Fitting Complex Ratio Cohort Comp. 11,231 12,600 13,740 10,962 12,180 13,400 10,582 10,963 10,994 Table 3.5 ‘Best Fitting’ Population Projection Growth Rates Period 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 Observed 17.0% 9.6% Best Fitting Extrapolation Best Fitting Simple Ratio Best Fitting Best Fitting Complex Ratio Cohort Comp. 10.2% 10.9% 10.9% 14.3% 12.2% 9.0% 11.5% 11.1% 10.0% 7.7% 3.6% 0.3% Table 3.6 ‘Best Fitting’ Projections: Net Population Changes by Decade Period 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 Best Fitting Best Fitting Best Fitting Best Fitting Observed Extrapolation Simple Ratio Complex Ratio Cohort Comp. 1,306 862 1,005 1,402 1,133 753 1,186 1,369 1,218 381 1,316 1,140 1,220 31 While each of the first three methods yielded a viable total population projection given the growth scenario outlined in Section 2.0, the projection generated by the ‘best fitting’ extrapolation curve was determined to be the most appropriate for Franklin County. The extrapolation projection forecasts an increase in the number of residents coming to the county in A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 33 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County each successive decade, as well as an increasing growth rate over the thirty year period. Using this method as a population forecast, Franklin County is expected to have approximately 3,500 new residents by 2030, new residents that are attributed to historic population trends that have seen the county’s population slowly, but steadily increase in recent decades. 3.4 Projection Methodology for New Development Impacts The population impact from new development was determined to take three forms: 1) a new state prison, 2) under construction master planned residential communities, and 3) new residential communities built between 2010 and 2030. Consequently, a separate projection methodology was developed and implemented for each of these. 3.4.1 New Prison Impact The state has plans to construct a new state prison in Franklin County, one of similar size to the facility in Gulf County, which has a capacity of approximately 1,200 (Franklin County Roundtable, 2003). While this new correctional facility is not a typical ‘residential’ development, it will have a significant population impact on the county in the coming years. State prisoners are counted as residents of Franklin County and are included in the county’s official population count. This facility is expected be operational well before 2010. Because of the coming of the new prison, Franklin County is expected to experience a population jump of 1,200 residents between 2000-2010 that will carry over into subsequent decades. See Technical Appendix A, Section A.4 for more details on this impact. 3.4.2 Projecting the Impacts of Current Development Projects Currently, several large, new residential development projects have broken ground in Franklin County. These projects will bring roughly 1,500 new residential units to the county, but in a setting new to the county,; in master-planned communities. To model the impacts of these developments, assumptions were made about build out times, occupancy rates (full-time versus part-time residents), and average household sizes. These assumptions were then utilized to calculate the population impact of these new units. See Technical Appendix A, Section A.4 for details on these assumptions and the subsequent calculations. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 34 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County 3.4.3 Projecting the Impacts of Future Development Projects While much of the preceding analysis rests in what is largely known about Franklin County (ongoing development, modeled historical development trends, average household sizes, etc.) a population forecast at some point needs to make some assumptions about future development in the county. Those residential projects currently under-construction in Franklin are almost certainly not the last new, large-scale residential communities to be built in the county. Consequently, it was assumed that other large, new residential development projects will be undertaken by St. Joe or other development entities between 2010 and 2030. These projects will take the form of large scale, master planned communities that are commonplace throughout much of the region (and state) and which are emerging as the preferred development form of St. Joe/Arvida. Once assumptions were made about the number of units to be added between 20102020 and 2020-2030, further assumptions were made about occupancy rates (full-time versus part-time residents) and average household sizes. See Technical Appendix A, Section A.4 for details on these assumptions and the subsequent calculations. 3.4.4 The Population Impact of New Development on Franklin County Taken together these analyses provided a forecast of the population impact of new development on Franklin County between 2000 and 2030. Table 3.7 summarizes this impact. It is important to emphasize that this population impact is expected over and above that expected from ongoing population trends affecting the county. Therefore, in addition to the forecasted population increases attributable to the continuation of historic development trends, Franklin County is expected to have an additional 2,078 residents at the end of the first decade (2010), 3,670 residents by 2020, and 6,702 residents by 2030. Table 3.7 Total Population Impacts of New Development, 2000-2030 Type of Impact Residential New Residential New Development Development Prison 2000-2010 2010-2020 1,200 878 0 1,200 878 1,592 1,200 878 1,592 New Residential Development 2020-2030 0 0 3,032 Period 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 Total 2,078 3,670 6,702 35 A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County 3.5 The Combined Population Forecast for Franklin County When all of the factors driving growth in Franklin County have been considered, modeled, and calculated, a final, combined population forecast was generated for Franklin County. This forecast is shown in Table 3.8. The table also breaks out the expected growth across the major factors influencing growth. Table 3.8 The Franklin County Population Forecast, 2010-2030 Population Growth Factors Residential Residential Continuation New Development Development Observed Population Growth of Historic Prison Impact Impact Population Forecast Rate Trends Impact 2000-2010 2010-2030 7,065 7,661 8.4% 8,967 17.0% 9,829 9.6% 12,912 31.4% 10,834 1,200 878 0 15,690 21.5% 12,020 1,200 878 1,592 20,038 27.7% 13,336 1,200 878 4,624 Year 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 As detailed in Table 3.8, Franklin County can expect to see sizable increases in their population in the coming decades, especially when compared to historic growth rates. This is expected given the factors outlined in Section 2.0, including the new development activity in the county and the emergence of the region as a desirable retirement destination. This forecast predicts that the county’s population will more than double in the next thirty years, from a 2000 population of 9,829 to a population in 2030 of just over 20,000 persons. There are a few important elements of Table 3.8 that should not be overlooked. First, it is important to recognize that a significant portion of the growth in the 2000-2010 period is attributable to the new prison. If the prison were not built, the forecasted growth rate would be reduced by a third (19.2% instead of 31.4%). Second, it is also important to recognize the continued impact of development in the future. New development in the 2000-2010 period will bring 878 new residents to the county and these residents carry over into future time periods as well. Last, in the near term (2000-2010) much of the population growth in the county can be A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 36 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County attributed to a continuation of historic trends. In later decades (2010-2020 and 2020-2030), the share of population growth related to historic population trends falls as new residential development projects are expected to become the primary generator of population growth in Franklin County. As shown in Figure 3.5, this forecast falls within the range of expected future population values as outlined in the growth scenario (see Figure 2.2). However, while the population is expected to increase at rates well above historic levels, Franklin County is not expected to experience a population boom similar to that experienced by other counties in the region (see Figure 2.1 for Walton County’s recent growth experience). For many reasons (the remoteness of the county and infrastructure quantity/quality issues, and a strong local environmental ethic, for example), Franklin County is not expected to experience exponential population increases in the coming decades, with sustained growth rates upwards of 50% per decade. Instead, Franklin County is expected to continue to be a growing, but still largely rural county that continues to be desirable as a destination for second home buyers, day trippers, and retirees. Figure 3.5 Franklin County's Population Forecast, 2010-2030 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year 2010 2020 2030 Population Observed Population Population Forecast Growth Scenario Low Growth Scenario High A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 37 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County SECTION 4.0 ECONOMIC TRENDS ANALYSIS 4.1 The Franklin County Economic Context Though a small county, Franklin County has a robust local economy that has over threethousand employees working in very diverse industries like real estate, fishing, government, retail trade, and construction. Official Census Bureau statistics place Franklin County’s private employment figure in 2000 at 2,273, although these figures almost certainly undercount employment in key local industries such as fishing and construction.2 Reflecting the county’s slow but steady growth in population, Franklin County’s economy has also generally been growing over the years. According to the Census Bureau’s County Quickfacts, Franklin County’s private sector, nonfarm employment increased 31.2% between 1990 and 1999, above the state rate of 29.3% and the national rate of 18.4%. Over the decades, Franklin County’s economy has been driven by several different economic pursuits, all of them tied in one way or another to the natural resources and environmental richness offered by the county. In the early years of the county, 1830-1860, Apalachicola was an important port for shipping cotton. In later decades, timber emerged as a prime commodity, somewhat buffering the local economy from the decline in waterborne shipments of cotton with the emergence of the railroads as the primary means for shipping goods in the country. In the 1900s, the local economy remained tied to timber, especially with the rise of the St. Joe Paper Company and their purchase of hundreds of thousands of acres in the Panhandle. In addition, the seafood industry emerged as a major factor in the local economy in the 1930s and, even given the ups and downs of the industry, it continues to be a major employer of residents in the county. As detailed in the population portions of the report, the newest economic engine for the county is retirees and vacationers that come to the county to enjoy the most beautiful, pristine, undeveloped, but still accessible waterfront stretches in Florida. Unlike many coastal areas of central and southern Florida (and even areas to the west along the Panhandle), Franklin County is still dominated by low density residential development, locally owned stores, and accessible 2 See Section 6.2.4 for a discussion of adjustments made to the county’s employment data. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 38 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County beachfronts. These attributes, prized by locals, have become increasingly attractive to visitors and retirees. These visitors have been spending money in Franklin County in increasing amounts, contributing substantially to the local economy. 4.2 Comparing the Franklin County, the State of Florida and the United States Economies To understand Franklin County’s economy, it is useful to compare it to the state’s economy and that of the entire United States. This comparison is provided in Tables 4.1 and 4.2. Table 4.1 shows the number of employees by North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) category and Table 4.2 provides a percentage of employment by industry. These tables clearly illustrate how Florida’s economy differs markedly from the economy of the entire United States. The lack of manufacturing employment in the state and the county stand out (NAICS 31-33). In the US economy as a whole, roughly one in eight jobs is a manufacturing job, while Florida’s ratio is one in sixteen. The state’s tourist and retiree economy is evident in the high percentage of jobs tied up in accommodation (NAICS 72), support services (NAICS 56), and retail trade (NAICS 44-45). What these tables also illustrate is that Franklin County’s economy has already experienced a substantial transition from a resource-based economy to a tourism/recreation based economy. Franklin County has a large percentage of its private sector employment in retail trade and accommodation. In addition, almost four percent of the local workforce works in real estate development, well above the percentages in Florida and the United States, reflecting the importance of this sector to the local economy. While tourism appears to be thriving in Franklin County, resource-based employment still plays a major role in the local economy. Franklin County has a substantial percentage of its workforce in the fishing economy, evidenced by the high values for Fishing (NAICS 11) and Wholesale Trade (NAICS 42). As most of the jobs in these two sectors are related to the fishing industry, Table 4.2 indicates that roughly one in five jobs in Franklin County are directly linked to this resource-based economy. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 39 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Table 4.1 Employment by Industry in Franklin County, the State of Florida, and the United States, 2000 Franklin NAICS NAICS Category Name County 11 Forestry, fishing, hunting, and agr. support 502 21 Mining 0 22 Utilities 10 23 Construction 143 31-33 Manufacturing 82 42 Wholesale trade 306 44-45 Retail trade 417 48-49 Transportation & warehousing 60 51 Information 19 52 Finance & insurance 103 53 Real estate & rental & leasing 134 54 Professional, scientific & technical services 55 55 Management of companies & enterprises 0 56 Admin, support, waste mgt, remediation services 60 61 Educational services 3 62 Health care and social assistance 273 71 Arts, entertainment & recreation 19 72 Accommodation & food services 463 81 Other services (except public administration) 82 95 Auxiliaries 0 99 Unclassified establishments 10 2,741 Total-Private Firms Federal Government 31 State Government 261 Local Government 420 712 Total-Public Sector 3,453 TOTAL Sources: Census Bureau County Business Patterns and State of Florida ES-202 Data Florida 21,316 5,843 29,885 371,252 415,435 314,935 902,523 201,232 173,509 312,856 132,438 380,240 124,576 911,443 95,333 739,741 141,335 599,197 303,243 41,930 6,987 6,225,249 124,987 213,580 638,258 976,825 7,202,074 United States 257,765 456,128 655,230 6,572,800 16,473,994 6,112,029 14,840,775 3,790,002 3,545,731 5,963,426 1,942,046 6,816,216 2,873,521 9,138,100 2,532,324 14,108,655 1,741,497 9,880,923 5,293,399 1,001,015 143,600 114,139,176 2,899,363 4,082,694 10,995,009 17,977,066 132,116,242 A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 40 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Table 4.2 Percentage of Employment by Industry in Franklin County, the State of Florida, and the United States, 2000 NAICS NAICS Category Name 11 Forestry, fishing, hunting, and agriculture support 21 Mining 22 Utilities 23 Construction 31-33 Manufacturing 42 Wholesale trade 44-45 Retail trade 48-49 Transportation & warehousing 51 Information 52 Finance & insurance 53 Real estate & rental & leasing 54 Professional, scientific & technical services 55 Management of companies & enterprises 56 Admin, support, waste mgt, remediation services 61 Educational services 62 Health care and social assistance 71 Arts, entertainment & recreation 72 Accommodation & food services 81 Other services (except public administration) 95 Auxiliaries 99 Unclassified establishments Percentage-Private Firms Federal Government State Government Local Government Percentage-Public Sector TOTAL Franklin County 14.5% 0.0% 0.3% 4.1% 2.4% 8.9% 12.1% 1.7% 0.6% 3.0% 3.9% 1.6% 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 7.9% 0.6% 13.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.3% 79.4% 0.9% 7.6% 12.2% 20.6% 100.0% Florida 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 5.2% 5.8% 4.4% 12.5% 2.8% 2.4% 4.3% 1.8% 5.3% 1.7% 12.7% 1.3% 10.3% 2.0% 8.3% 4.2% 0.6% 0.1% 86.4% 1.7% 3.0% 8.9% 13.6% 100.0% United States 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 5.0% 12.5% 4.6% 11.2% 2.9% 2.7% 4.5% 1.5% 5.2% 2.2% 6.9% 1.9% 10.7% 1.3% 7.5% 4.0% 0.8% 0.1% 86.4% 2.2% 3.1% 8.3% 13.6% 100.0% Sources: Census Bureau County Business Patterns and State of Florida ES-202 Data On the public sector employment side, surprisingly Franklin County has a higher percentage of its employment in state and local government jobs than might be expected for a small, rural county, at roughly twenty percent of its total employment. However, the state’s vast land holdings in the county and their commitment to protect and study Apalachicola Bay help to explain the large number of state jobs. As for the seemingly large number of local government A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 41 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County jobs, it is important to recall that the administration of a county requires a substantial number of employees to cover the full range of duties of a local government. The county provides administrative services, fire and police services, waste management, as well as numerous other services that require personnel. In addition, many of the local government jobs in Franklin County are related to the school district. 4.3 Comparing the Economies of Franklin County and Other Counties in the Region Tables 4.3 and 4.4 provide a similar set of employment comparisons for Franklin County and neighboring counties in the region. These tables illustrate that Franklin County’s economy more closely mirrors the economies of Bay and Walton Counties, large urbanized counties that have experienced growth in recent decades, than the smaller, rural economies of Gulf and Wakulla Counties. Franklin County shares high percentages of employment in accommodation and retail trade with Bay and Walton. The county also has a higher percentage of jobs in real estate than any comparison county except Walton County, where the real estate market is even more active than it is in Franklin. In addition, Franklin County has a large private sector employment base (roughly 80%) a level comparable to that of Walton and Bay Counties. In contrast, Gulf and Wakulla Counties have a much smaller percentage of their employment in the private sector (60-65%). The legacy of a resource-based economy is still present in Franklin County, however. Franklin has a much larger percentage of its jobs in fishing and wholesale trade than any of the neighboring counties (14.5% versus no larger than 3.8%). Further, Franklin’s specialization in wholesale trade is evident, with employment levels well above that of neighboring counties. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 42 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Table 4.3 Employment by Industry in Franklin County and Neighboring Counties, 2000 Franklin NAICS NAICS Categories County 11 Forestry, fishing, etc. 502 21 Mining 0 22 Utilities 10 23 Construction 143 31-33 Manufacturing 82 42 Wholesale trade 306 44-45 Retail trade 417 48-49 Transp & warehousing 60 51 Information 19 52 Finance & insurance 103 53 Real estate 134 54 Prof, sci & tech svcs 55 55 Mgt of companies 0 56 Admin, support, waste mgt 60 61 Educational services 3 62 Health care 273 71 Arts, entertainment & rec 19 72 Accomm. & food svcs 463 81 Other services 82 95 Auxiliaries 0 99 Unclassified 10 2,741 Total-Private Firms Federal Government 31 State Government 261 Local Government 420 712 Total-Public Sector 3,453 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT Walton County 35 60 208 769 645 274 1,935 60 126 146 660 141 10 603 19 739 175 2,154 552 10 20 9,341 176 600 1,596 2,372 11,713 Bay County 423 60 319 3,724 3,221 1,370 9,974 946 1,284 2,540 1,020 2,405 1,088 3,448 264 7,912 1,070 9,266 3,781 175 60 54,350 3,071 1,194 5,907 10,172 64,522 Gulf Wakulla County County 131 151 0 0 67 60 97 243 177 370 24 67 397 491 10 100 175 66 117 130 60 60 54 129 0 0 10 60 0 60 411 239 60 74 141 270 117 69 0 0 10 10 2,058 2,649 27 91 736 478 582 867 1,345 1,436 3,403 4,085 Sources: Census Bureau County Business Patterns and State of Florida ES-202 Data A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 43 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Table 4.4 Percentage of Employment by Industry in Franklin County and Neighboring Counties, 2000 NAICS NAICS Categories 11 Forestry, fishing, etc. 21 Mining 22 Utilities 23 Construction 31-33 Manufacturing 42 Wholesale trade 44-45 Retail trade 48-49 Transp & warehousing 51 Information 52 Finance & insurance 53 Real estate 54 Prof, sci & tech svcs 55 Mgt of companies 56 Admin, support, waste mgt 61 Educational services 62 Health care 71 Arts, entertainment & rec 72 Accomm. & food svcs 81 Other services 95 Auxiliaries 99 Unclassified Percentage-Private Firms Federal Government State Government Local Government Percentage-Public Sector TOTAL EMPLOYMENT Franklin County 14.5% 0.0% 0.3% 4.1% 2.4% 8.9% 12.1% 1.7% 0.6% 3.0% 3.9% 1.6% 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 7.9% 0.6% 13.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.3% 79.4% 0.9% 7.6% 12.2% 20.6% 100.0% Walton County 0.3% 0.5% 1.8% 6.6% 5.5% 2.3% 16.5% 0.5% 1.1% 1.2% 5.6% 1.2% 0.1% 5.1% 0.2% 6.3% 1.5% 18.4% 4.7% 0.1% 0.2% 79.4% 0.9% 7.6% 12.2% 20.6% 100.0% Bay County 0.7% 0.1% 0.5% 5.8% 5.0% 2.1% 15.5% 1.5% 2.0% 3.9% 1.6% 3.7% 1.7% 5.3% 0.4% 12.3% 1.7% 14.4% 5.9% 0.3% 0.1% 84.2% 4.8% 1.9% 9.2% 15.8% 100.0% Gulf Wakulla County County 3.8% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.5% 2.9% 5.9% 5.2% 9.1% 0.7% 1.6% 11.7% 12.0% 0.3% 2.4% 5.1% 1.6% 3.4% 3.2% 1.8% 1.5% 1.6% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.5% 0.0% 1.5% 12.1% 5.9% 1.8% 1.8% 4.1% 6.6% 3.4% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 60.5% 64.8% 0.8% 2.2% 21.6% 11.7% 17.1% 21.2% 39.5% 35.2% 100.0% 100.0% Sources: Census Bureau County Business Patterns and State of Florida ES-202 Data A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 44 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County What this initial analysis suggests is that Franklin County has an economy that reflects the emergent tourism/vacation/retiree economy of other developed counties in Florida’s Great Northwest rather than the still small, struggling economies of rural counties in the region. The county has already begun the transition to this services-based economy, although resource-based employment still has a strong foothold in the local economy. The data presented in Table 4.5 support this conclusion. This table presents population and employment data for all of the counties in Florida’s Great Northwest. Table 4.5 Population and Employment in Florida’s Great Northwest, 2000 Population Pop Employment Emp 2000 Rank 2000 Rank 9,829 15 3,453 12 148,217 4 64,522 4 13,017 13 2,516 15 294,410 1 130,952 2 45,087 7 14,397 7 13,332 12 3,403 13 18,564 11 3,788 11 46,755 6 15,510 6 12,902 14 2,848 14 239,452 2 145,005 1 7,021 16 1,496 16 170,498 3 72,504 3 117,743 5 23,520 5 22,863 9 4,085 10 40,601 8 11,713 8 20,973 10 6,526 9 15,982,378 7,202,074 Pop per Employee Pop/Emp Percent Ratio Rank Private 2.85 5 79.4% 2.30 3 84.2% 5.17 15 77.9% 2.25 2 82.1% 3.13 7 65.1% 3.92 10 60.5% 4.90 13 64.5% 3.01 6 60.4% 4.53 11 65.3% 1.65 1 62.2% 4.69 12 48.6% 2.35 4 80.7% 5.01 14 76.1% 5.60 16 64.8% 3.47 9 79.7% 3.21 8 65.8% 2.22 86.4% Percent Private Rank 5 1 6 2 10 14 12 15 9 13 16 3 7 11 4 8 County Franklin Bay Calhoun Escambia Gadsden Gulf Holmes Jackson Jefferson Leon Liberty Okaloosa Santa Rosa Wakulla Walton Washington Florida Table 4.5 reveals that although Franklin County has the second smallest 2000 county population in the region and the fifth smallest number of employees in 2000, their economy is reflective of more developed and urbanized counties in the region. As seen in the table, Franklin County has a population/employment ratio of 2.85, placing it fifth in the region and above the much larger counties of Jackson and Wakulla. Counties in the region with similar population sizes (Calhoun, Gulf, Jefferson, and Liberty) each have ratios of roughly four people per job. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 45 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Part of the explanation for Franklin County’s performance on this measure, however, lies in the large number of people that come to the county each day to work. For example, many of the construction workers employed in Franklin County come from neighboring Wakulla and Gulf Counties (Franklin County Roundtable, 2003). While Franklin has a low resident per jobs ratio, the county imports many workers to fill these jobs, an issue that will likely continue to shape local economic development efforts in the coming years. In addition, Franklin County’s sizable part-time and day visitor population drives some of the employment in the county. As these short-term visitors are not captured in the county’s census population, this also serves to lower the P/E ratio. A review of the percentage of jobs that are private sector in each county finds that Franklin County again fares well, placing fifth in the region. This suggests that Franklin County has more in common with developed, but non-government centered counties like Walton, Okaloosa, and Escambia, rather than smaller, rural counties like Gulf and Wakulla. Central Finding: Taken together, this data paints a picture of a small, rural county that has a solid economic foundation. Despite its small population, the county has a well-developed and relatively diverse local economy reflective of more developed counties in the region. Franklin County’s economy has taken on attributes of larger, more developed counties, including: 1) the private sector share of the local economy is large, 2) the population to jobs ratio is relatively low, and 3) the economy has employment concentrated in more than one or two local sectors. The above findings suggest that Franklin County can be expected to weather any coming population growth relatively well. The economy has already begun the transition from a solely resourcebased economy to a more diversified economy with employment concentrations across several industrial sectors. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 46 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County SECTION 5.0 AN EMPLOYMENT GROWTH SCENARIO FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY To be successful in generating an economic forecast for Franklin County, a plausible and accurate growth scenario that outlines the type of growth expected in the county and that identifies the factors that are driving economic growth in the community is required. This section summarizes the growth scenario that guided the development of an employment forecast for Franklin County. This scenario was developed through interviews with local experts on Franklin County, reviews of planning documents and print media, and analysis of population and economic data for the county, the region, and the state. 5.1 Factors Driving Employment Growth in Franklin County Numerous forces are currently driving economic growth in Franklin County. In addition, other factors will emerge in the near or longer-term future that will also contribute to employment growth in the county. This section highlights those factors that are expected to contribute to continued employment growth in the county in the coming decades. 5.1.1 Population Growth in the County and Region As detailed in Sections 1.0-3.0, Franklin County has experienced population growth in recent decades and will continue to experience population growth in coming decades. As more people come to the county, there will be an increase in demand for personal and household services (hair stylists, drycleaning, restaurants, yard work, etc.). This increase in demand will translate into new jobs in the county. Similarly, growth in the region will fuel employment increases in Franklin County. New residents in neighboring Gulf and Wakulla Counties and from throughout the region will spend money in Franklin County, also generating employment increases. Over and above historic population increases in the county, Section 2.0 detailed the increases in population related to the several new residential communities that are currently being built in Franklin County. These new residents will also demand personal and household services, leading to the creation of employment in the county. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 47 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Taken together these trends point to a significant increase in population in the coming years, with the population forecast predicting that Franklin County will slightly more than double their population in the next thirty years. As population and employment are inextricably related, this population increase will result in employment increases. For example, as shown in Table 5.1, if the population forecast is accurate and the population to employment ratio were to remain constant (2.85 people per job), Franklin County would be see its employment double by 2030. Table 5.1 Total Employment in Franklin County if the Population Forecast is Accurate and the Current Population to Employment Ratio Holds Over Time Year Population Employment Pop/Emp Ratio 2000 (Observed) 9,829 3,453 2.85 2010 (Forecast) 12,912 4,531 2.85 2020 (Forecast) 15,690 5,505 2.85 2030 (Forecast) 20,038 7,031 2.85 5.1.2 Rising Median Household Income In addition to an increase in population, the likely demographic make-up of new residents indicates that new employment will be created in the county. The new residential communities currently under construction are oriented towards upper middle class to upper class homeowners and second home buyers. In the coming years, Franklin County is therefore expected to see an increase in their median household income as these more wealthy retirees and second home buyers come to the county in greater numbers. Greater wealth in a community usually translates into more sales and increases in employment. 5.1.3 Growth in Retail Trade, Accommodation and Food Services Reflecting the above trends, two sectors of the economy likely to experience substantial growth in the coming decades include those that directly benefit from more people (with greater incomes) in the region. The retail trade sector and the accommodations and food services sector should both continue to grow as more people move to or visit Franklin County. These people will demand restaurants, shopping opportunities, and hotel and other rental spaces. Reflecting this likely increase in demand, the SummerCamp development is slated to include a hotel and space for commercial development as well. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 48 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County 5.1.4 Growth in Real Estate-Oriented Industries A second set of industries also likely to experience substantial growth in the coming years are those that relate to one of the county’s primary resources, real estate. Given the large residential developments under construction or planned in the county, real estate-oriented industries should experience job growth in the next ten years. More specifically, the construction industry should experience increases in employment as SummerCamp begins construction and the St. James Bay and Gramercy Plantation projects gain momentum. The real estate sector should also experience some job growth, although the relatively large number of real estate jobs in 2000 (134, or roughly 4.0% of the total employment) indicate that this industry has a substantial employment base in this industry already. 5.1.5 A New State Prison in Franklin County As briefly discussed in Section 2.2.7, Franklin County is to be the home of a new state prison in the next decade. While this facility will bring inmates to the county, it is expected to have a sizable employment impact as well. For this scenario, it is assumed that a state prison will be built in Franklin County and populated by 2010. The prison is assumed to be of similar size to that in Gulf County (approximately 1,200 inmates). The direct employment impact of the prison is projected to be 300 jobs (Franklin County Roundtable, 2003). 5.2 Factors Limiting Employment Growth in Franklin County Despite many concurrent forces that are driving both population and employment growth in the county, there are some factors that will mitigate growth in Franklin County in the coming years. The two major factors mitigating employment growth are: 1) ongoing infrastructure issues and 2) continued decline of resource-based industries. 5.2.1 Community Infrastructure Issues As discussed in Section 2.3.2, infrastructure may prove to be a limiting factor to development in Franklin County in the near term. A lack of wastewater treatment, some difficulties in finding potable water, and limited transportation infrastructure will not only hinder population growth, but may also limit economic opportunities as well. These infrastructure issues can slow overall economic growth, keeping jobs out of the county until these issues are A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 49 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County sufficiently resolved. Fortunately for the county, these impacts are most likely to be felt in areas that demand substantial infrastructure, such as manufacturing plants or larger office/warehousing developments. These industrial sectors currently do not provide substantial employment in the county, so the direct impact of limited infrastructure is less in Franklin County than it might be elsewhere. However, those industries that are a major part of the economic base of the county, real estate-related employment (construction and accommodations, for example) and retail trade do require adequate infrastructure in place prior to development. Consequently, these infrastructure issues will have some dampening effect on employment growth in the county. 5.2.2 Continued Decline of the Resource-Based Industries Resource-based employment, one of Franklin County’s long-time economic bases, is expected to continue to experience hard economic times in the coming decades. While the fulltime equivalent employment in the fishing industry has been estimated for this report at roughly 500, the total employment impact has been estimated as upwards of 1,000 jobs, although many of these positions are only part-time (Franklin County Roundtable, 2003). In addition to this direct employment, there is also a substantial spinoff effect in the local economy, as a number of seafood processing jobs are to be found in the county (under the heading of wholesale trade) and a number of local restaurants attract substantial business from the region due to the availability of fresh seafood. However, a number of factors have contributed to declining employment in these industries in recent years. These factors include an influx of cheap seafood and shellfish from overseas, fishing net bans, active state oversight over Apalachicola Bay, and environmental conditions that irregularly close the Bay and surrounding waters to oyster harvesting (Franklin County Roundtable, 2003). While the seafood and shellfish industries have for decades been a major employer in the county and have generated billions in economic impact, it is generally agreed that the industry will at best, decline only slightly in the coming years. Most local experts, though, indicated that employment in the seafood and shellfish industries would experience substantial declines in the coming years (Franklin County Roundtable, 2003). This decline would likely also be felt in other industries, but most particularly wholesale trade. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 50 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County 5.3 An Employment Growth Scenario for the County, 2000-2020 Given the above major factors driving employment growth changes in the coming years, a growth scenario was developed for the county. The following assumptions were made in the preparation of a forecast of Franklin County’s employment: 1) No wars, sustained and long-term economic recessions, or natural disasters will come to the region and devastate the county. 2) The service economy will continue to prosper in response to the growing population of the county. 3) The economy of Franklin County will continue its shift from a partly resources-based economy to a service-based economy. 4) The state of Florida will build and operate a state prison in the county. 5) Employment in the seafood and shellfish industries will continue to decline as international, national, and state forces continue to limit this economic activity in the county. Table 5.2 provides a summary the growth scenario by industry. The major industries are listed in the table and the expectations for the direction and pace of growth are detailed as well. As expected, certain industries are expected to experience moderate to fast employment growth in the coming decade, including real estate-based industries such as construction and accommodation. Employment in other industries is expected to remain relatively steady, including manufacturing and federal government. Finally, some industries are forecast to experience employment declines in the coming years, specifically forestry and fishing. Some individual industries require some further explanation. Wholesale trade, which in Section 5.2.2 was suggested as likely to experience a decline in employment, is listed as ‘Level’. This designation reflects employment projections for the state and region that indicate an increase in employment in this sector (see Table B.2 in the Technical Appendix). While seafoodrelated wholesale employment is expected to decline, the general expectation for growth in this sector balances this decline out, resulting in the determination that growth in this industry would be neither substantially negative or positive. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 51 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County State government employment is another area that may initially seem counterintuitive. At a time when the state is cutting jobs, the designation of state government employment as not only increasing, but increasing quickly seems erroneous. However, the expectation that the state will build and operate a new prison in Franklin County, bringing 300 state jobs to the county, generates the expectation that employment in this industry will indeed experience substantial growth by 2010. Three hundred state jobs would more than double the current number of state employees in the county, a substantial expected increase that yields the designation shown in Table 5.2. Table 5.2 Summary of Expected Employment Changes by Industry NAICS Code 11 21 22 23 31-33 42 44-45 48-49 51 52 53 54 55 56 61 62 71 72 81 95 99 ---Expected Direction NAICS Industrial Sector of Change Forestry, fishing, etc. Decrease Mining Decrease Utilities Level Construction Increase Manufacturing Level Wholesale trade Level Retail trade Increase Transp & warehousing Increase Information Increase Finance & insurance Increase Real estate Increase Prof, sci & tech svcs Increase Mgt of companies Increase Admin, support, waste mgt Increase Educational services Increase Health care Increase Arts, entertainment & rec Increase Accomm. & food svcs Increase Other services Increase Auxiliaries Level Unclassified Level Federal Government Level State Government Increase Local Government Increase Expected Rate of Change Slow Slow NA Fast NA NA Moderate Slow Slow Slow Moderate Slow Slow Slow Slow Moderate Slow Fast Moderate NA NA NA Fast Moderate A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 52 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County SECTION 6.0 AN EMPLOYMENT FORECAST FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY 6.1 A Two Stage Forecasting Approach Before an employment forecast can be generated, several decisions about the forecasting approach must be made. The first decision to be made is one of the forecast horizon; for what time period is the employment forecast to be developed? 6.1.1 Near-Term Employment Forecasting In the population portion of this report, the forecast horizon was 2030 and a population forecast through 2030 was developed. This roughly thirty year period is one that is commonly used in comprehensive planning processes. Employment forecasts, however, typically are much shorter in term. For example, the state of Florida no longer generates employment projections beyond eight to ten years in the future. Similarly, the United States Census Bureau used to make state employment projections for a thirty year horizon, in the form of their OBERS projections, but this program was discontinued and the federal government now leaves employment projections to the states. The practice of long-term economic forecasting has given way to shorter-term economic forecasts, making employment projections beyond a ten year period somewhat difficult. The reasons for shorter term employment forecasts are many, but they generally revolve around the unpredictability of the economy, even at the state and national levels. Whereas population trends tend emerge relatively slowly (across years or even decades), economic trends can change very quickly, sometimes over the course of weeks. In addition, the behavior of people, the primary unit of analysis when dealing with population data, may change over time, but in slow and often predictable ways. The Census Bureau has very robust population projection models that do a good job of modeling and then predicting changes in mortality, fertility, and migration. In contrast, economic trends are related to firms and capital, entities that are very fluid and that respond very quickly to environmental stimuli. Robust economic models that accurately capture and predict economic changes largely remain an unattained goal. All of the above have contributed to the emergence of medium term forecasts as preferable to long-term forecasts. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 53 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County The problem in developing employment projections for Franklin County is that typical methods for generating these projections, the constant-share and shift-share approaches (discussed in Sections 6.3.1 and 6.3.2 below and in Technical Appendix B), require inputs over the entire projection period (ideally, through 2030 to match the population forecast horizon). However, the state of Florida only generates employment projections through 2010. These ratio methods could therefore not be employed to generate an employment forecast beyond a 2010 forecast horizon. For the above reasons, ideally the Franklin County employment forecast horizon should be set at 2010. This forecast horizon allows for the appropriate application of the constant-share and shift-share methods, linking local employment projections to pattern area projections. This horizon also allows the analysts to capture near term and medium term economic trends. Franklin County’s needs related to their Comprehensive Plan update dictate a longer forecast horizon. Certain elements of the ongoing update to Franklin’s Comprehensive Plan require employment forecasts through at least 2020. For example, the land use element and the capital facilities element both require employment forecasts as inputs to determine future land use needs and necessary infrastructure improvements to serve these employees. For this reason, a longer term forecast horizon is required and it was therefore set at 2020. 6.1.2 A Two Stage Employment Forecast For Franklin County, then, it was determined that a two stage forecasting approach was required. The forecast horizon was broken into two periods, 2000-2010 and 2010-2020. For the forecast horizon, 2000-2010, typical small area employment forecasting methods were employed, the constant-share and shift-share methods, and an employment forecast through 2010 was developed for the county. For the latter forecast horizon, 2010-2020, these same approaches could not be employed because pattern area employment projections do not exist beyond 2010. As a consequence, a variation on the ratio method was developed and implemented to arrive at an employment forecast for the period 2010-2020. These method are discussed further in Section 6.3 and Section 6.5. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 54 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County 6.2 Summary of Employment Data Used in this Study Data for generating an employment forecast for Franklin County came primarily from three sources: 1) County Business Patterns data prepared by the United States Census Bureau, 2) ES-202 data gathered and made available by the Agency for Workforce Innovation, and 3) employment projections developed by the Agency for Workforce Innovation. Each of these will be discussed in turn. 6.2.1 United States Census Bureau County Business Patterns Data One of the most useful datasets on employment at the substate level is provided by the United States Census Bureau in the form of County Business Patterns (CBP) data. The Census Bureau annually provides CBP data at the federal, state and local (county and zip code) level. CBP data includes information on the number of establishments, the number of employees, and payroll by industry for private establishments in the region of interest. CBP data are useful for studying the economic activity of small areas and tracking changes in local economies over time. However, this dataset is not exhaustive as it excludes data on self-employed individuals, employees of private households and most government employees (http://www.census.gov/epcd/cbp/view/cbpview.html). As such, other sources of data are required to capture data on what may be termed the ‘informal economy’ and data on public sector employment. For this study, CBP data from 1994-2001 was reviewed for the state of Florida and counties in Florida’s Great Northwest, including Franklin County. 6.2.2 Agency for Workforce Innovation ES-202 Data In order to account for government employment, ES-202 data were used to provide the number of federal, state, and local government employees at the state and county levels. ES-202 data is a state level data series provided by the Agency for Workforce Innovation (AWI): Labor Market Statistics division. According to the Agency for Workforce Innovation’s website, ES-202 data provide “a statistical summary of employment and wage reports submitted quarterly… by all employers in the State of Florida who are covered by federal and state unemployment compensation laws.” (http://www.labormarketinfo.com/lmi_lib.htm) As such, ES-202 capture a large percentage of the workforce, but not any businesses or self-employed workers that do not A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 55 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County pay unemployment compensation. For this study, public sector employment data from ES-202 were used to round out the private sector employment data provided by CBP. 6.2.3 Agency for Workforce Innovation Employment Projections The Agency for Workforce Innovation also generates employment projections for the State of Florida, for the state’s workforce regions, and for large counties in the state (with over 100,000 employees in the county). These employment projections are generated through a classic projection method that combines quantitative methods (extrapolation of past trends) and qualitative methods (scenario building). These forecasts are updated on an annual cycle and they project for an eight to ten year horizon. The most recent projections were developed using a launch year of 2002 and a projection horizon of 2010. For this study, employment projections for the 2002-2010 period were gathered for the state of Florida and Workforce Region IV, which includes Franklin, Bay, and Gulf Counties. 6.2.4 Issues with these Data Sets Despite the high quality of these data sets, certain issues required attention from the analysts to accurately capture the employment experience of Franklin County. These issues center on two areas: 1) Franklin County’s fishing economy and 2) the form of the employment projections provided by the Agency for Workforce Innovation. Franklin County’s Fishing Economy One immediate concern emerged after an initial review of the CBP data for Franklin County. The CBP placed Franklin County’s 2000 fishing employment (NAIC Code 1141) at only ten employees. This is clearly an immense undercount, particularly since discussion with local experts on the county placed fishing industry employment anywhere from several hundred to one-thousand total employees (Franklin County Roundtable, 2003). This undercount is almost certainly reflective of the ‘informal economy’ found in the fishing industry in Franklin County (and many other counties). In an informal economy, much of the work is not done through traditional firms that keep very detailed records. Instead, informal economies often work via personal relationships, cash transactions, and without detailed record-keeping. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 56 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County In response to this undercount, different avenues were pursued to try and establish a reasonable figure for fishing industry employment in Franklin County. The number of commercial fishing licenses granted and the amount of seafood (in millions of pounds) in Franklin County per year for the past several years were acquired from the Florida Marine Fisheries. However, the fluctuation in these indicators over the years made establishing an employment figure problematic. Consequently, an additional data set gathered by the Census Bureau was consulted. The Census Bureau gathers data on ‘nonemployers’ or “establishments… with no paid employees… typically self-employed individuals or partnerships operating businesses that they have not chosen to incorporate.” (http://www.census.gov/epcd/nonemployer/) ‘Nonemployer statistics’ represent the federal government’s best effort to capture informal economy activity. For Franklin County in 2000, nonemployer statistics placed the employment in the fishing industry (NAICS code 1141) at 438, a figure much more reflective of local conditions. This figure was deemed a best available figure to add to the employment figures provided by the CBP 2000 data. To insure that Franklin County’s employment data was comparable to that of the state, other counties in Florida’s Great Northwest, and the United States as a whole, nonemployer statistics for NAICS code 1141 were gathered for all geographic entities and added to those areas’ employment figures. However, nonemployer statistics were gathered for no other industries as only fishing was identified as inaccurate after a review of the CBP data. Table 6.1 summarizes the data used for the employment analysis and forecasting section of this report. Table 6.1 Data Sources for Franklin County Economic Base Analysis County Business Patterns XXX XXX XXX XXX AWI Projections Nonemployer Statistics Data Need Private Sector Employment Data Public Sector Employment Data Fishing Industry Employment Employment Projections ES-202 A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 57 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County The Form of AWI Employment Projections A second major issue to be resolved related to the form of the AWI projection data. The AWI generates employment projections using an employment classification system (SIC) that is not compatible with employment data made available by the Census Bureau (NAICS). SIC (Standard Industrial Classification) was the employment coding system that was the precursor to the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) coding regime. SIC codes represent the federal government’s first attempt to classify economic activity by industry type. These codes were in place from the 1930s until 1997. In the 1990s, the federal government convened an expert group to revise and update the coding system, leading to the establishment of the NAICS coding regime in 1997. NAICS codes standardize the coding system across North America. These codes also better capture economic activity in an era of a services-based economy and high technology. Despite this move to a new coding scheme at the federal level, many states and local governments have been slow to transition from SIC to NAICS. The AWI, for example, still makes all of their data available by SIC codes, including their employment projections for the state and component regions. In effect, the current employment data for Franklin County (for 2000) and the projected employment data for the Workforce Region IV (Franklin, Bay, and Gulf Counties) do not easily fit together because they use very different coding schemes. As a result, a procedure for translating the employment projections from SIC to NAICS codes was developed. Detail on this procedure, including the summary SIC to NAICS translation table used for Franklin County, is available in Technical Appendix B. 6.3 The Forecasting Approach, 2000-2010 6.3.1 An Overview of the Forecast Methodology In developing an employment forecast for a small economy there are many methods available to analysts. Some of these involve detailed input-output or econometric modeling, methods that require detailed data inputs and substantial financial commitments both of which are unavailable to Franklin County at this time. However, a number of less complex, but still useful methods exist that allow for analysts to link small area employment changes to larger area A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 58 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County employment changes. It is these simpler, but still effective projection methods that were utilized in this study. Similar to the ratio techniques summarized in Sections 3.3.2 and 3.3.3 (and detailed in Technical Appendix A.2), changes in a smaller area are tied to changes in a larger area, called a pattern area. The fundamental assumption in using these ratio approaches is that the prospects of a small area are intertwined with those of the pattern area; if Florida’s Great Northwest experiences employment increases, then Franklin County will participate in these increases and, to some degree, mirror these increases. Under this methodology, an employment forecast for Franklin County is generated by linking the growth of the county to that of the projected growth of the larger pattern area. The primary advantages to this pattern area approach to generating employment projections include: • Low data requirements: One of the major advantages to this approach is the low data requirements of these methods and, consequently, the low cost in implementation. Despite these low costs, this approach is still considered useful in developing employment projections for small areas (Klosterman, 1990). • Employment projections are available for pattern areas: This approach requires employment projections for larger pattern areas as an input. These projections are not only available, but they are also generally more accurate than small scale projections that are produced with the same frequency. It is well-understood that projections are more accurate when completed at larger geographic levels (like states or regions), primarily because these larger geographic entities experience less severe economic fluctuations over time. • Detailed industry inputs and outputs: A final advantage to this approach is that detailed employment data by industry are inputs to and outputs of the models. Instead of a forecast of the total number of jobs for Franklin County, offered by even simpler methods like P/E ratios, this approach provides detailed employment projections by industry. These outputs allow public officials and community residents to better understand the likely changes to the local economy in the coming decades. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 59 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County With the choice of the constant-share and shift-share methods, a second issue emerges. If employment projections are to be made with reference to a larger ‘pattern area’, then this pattern area must be identified. For this analysis, two patterns areas were identified: 1) the state of Florida and 2) Workforce Region IV, which includes Franklin, Gulf, and Bay Counties. These pattern areas were chosen for theoretical and practical reasons. On the theoretical side, both the state of Florida and the smaller region are sound proxies upon which to model Franklin County’s employment growth. The constant-share and shift-share methods require a pattern area that is a useful model for a smaller area’s growth and both the state and workforce region meet this general criteria. If Florida or the region grows economically, then this growth is certain to have some effect on Franklin County. On the practical side, employment projections are available for both the state and the workforce region through the year 2010. As discussed in Section 6.2.3, these data are annually prepared and are of high quality; they serve as the state’s official employment projections. Both the constant-share and shift-share methods require employment projections for the pattern areas and these areas both satisfy this criteria as well. Once the choice of overall approach was determined, specific projection methods were identified. Two pattern-area based projection methods are typically employed when projecting employment for smaller areas, like counties: 1) the constant-share method and 2) the shift-share method. Each of these is summarized below, with more detail and the calculations using each method provided in Technical Appendix B. 6.3.2 The Constant Share Method Similar to the constant-share population projection detailed in Technical Appendix A.2, the constant-share (CS) employment projection method assumes that the local share of a larger region’s employment in a specific industrial sector remains constant. In other words, the growth rates in local industries mirror the growth rates of the same industries in the larger pattern area (Klosterman, 1990). For example, if Franklin County had 2.4% of the state’s agricultural and fishing employment in 2000 (as they did), then this 2.4% share is held constant in the future (a constant-share). The following formula is used to calculate local employment projections using the CS method: A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 60 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County eit ' = (1 + Rit − t ' ) * eit (Equation 6.1) Where: eit ' = Projected local employment in industry i at time t eit = Local employment in industry i at time t Rit −t ' = Projected growth rate for the pattern area for the time period from t to t’ 6.3.3 The Shift Share Method The shift-share (SS) method is based on the belief that a key assumption of the constantshare method, that a smaller area will retain a constant share of a larger area’s employment in a given industry, is rarely correct because it is unlikely that employment in the local area and the pattern area grow by exactly the same rate. This technique accounts for these different growth rates by adding a shift term to the constant-share method. The underlying assumption for the shift term modification is that a projected employment shift is best determined by calculating a historic employment shift term. The SS method, then, assumes that observed differences between the county and pattern area growth rates remain constant over time (Klosterman, 1990). For this reason the shift-share method is sometimes referred to as the ‘constant shift-share method’ (a shift term is held constant over time). For example, if Franklin County had 2.4% of the fishing and agricultural employment in the state in 2000, but employment in this industry had grown 10% faster in the county than in the state over the last ten years, the shift-share approach assumes that this historic shift (a plus 10% growth rate over and above the state growth rate) continues into the future. The 10% would be the ‘shift term’ introduced into the projection method. In terms of projecting economic growth, the SS method uses a modified version of the CS formula. The SS method adds a shift term to account for the differences between the changes in the local and pattern area growth rates. The formula for the SS method is as follows: eit ' = (1 + Rit − t ' + s it − t ' ) * eit (Equation 6.2) Where: eit ' = Projected local employment in industry i in time t’ eit = Local employment of industry i at time t Rit −t ' = Projected growth rate for the pattern area for the time period from t to t’ A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 61 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County s it −t ' = Projected local employment shift for industry i for the time period from t to t’ 6.3.4 Variations on These Approaches While these two methods are sound and routinely utilized to make employment projections for smaller areas, it should be noted that these methods each rest upon an assumption that often does not hold true in practice. As noted above the constant-share method assumes that employment for a given industry in the smaller area and the pattern area grow at the same rate, yielding a constant-share over time for that industry. Rarely do a small area and a state experience job growth (or decline) at the same rate in a given industry. However, the correction offered by the shift-share method, using a historical employment shift term and holding this employment shift constant in the future, is also usually not accurate. Rarely do historic growth rates in a given industry for smaller and larger areas remain constant over long periods of time. For these reasons, variations on these approaches have been developed to address potential weaknesses in these methods. These variations can take several forms, including: • A combined CS/SS method: One variation calls for taking a combination of the constantshare method and the shift-share method, with the analyst reviewing the results of both methods for each industry and, based upon knowledge about local conditions, choosing the more appropriate projection result. • Caps to the SS method: The SS method sometimes yields growth rates for an industry that are very high (or very low), which ultimately yield employment projections that make no sense for the area. For example, if a new mall opens in a county it can bring hundreds of retail jobs to the area. This might in turn yield a very large local five year growth rate in the retail trade sector and, by extension, a sizable shift term, say plus 60%. If this plus 60% five year shift term is carried into the future for a period of twenty years, then retail employment in the retail trade sector can quickly grow to hundreds of thousands, a highly unlikely result for a small county. For this reason, analysts sometimes ‘cap’ local shift terms, not allowing them to be above a given threshold, say plus 25%, or below a given threshold, say negative 25%. • Generalized SS method: Another modification to the SS method is to average the local shift terms by major industry groups or even across all industries. Using this variation, 62 A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County the analyst can generate more moderate shift terms yielding more reasonable employment projections. In preparing employment projections for Franklin County, each of these variations was considered and a combination of these variations was eventually implemented. In the following section, the results of the projection methods for 2000-2010 are presented. 6.4 Results of the Projection Methods 2000-2010 The constant-share and shift-share methods were utilized to generate employment projections for Franklin County for the period 2000-2010. The results from these analyses are presented by NAICS major industry category in Table 6.2 and 6.3. For detail on the calculations behind each method see Technical Appendix B. These projections generally yield plausible results at the total employment level, with all four methods generating employment increases between 2000 and 2010. These employment increases range from roughly 400 additional jobs (the two constant-share methods) to over 1,900 new jobs (the shift-share method when analysis with growth caps set at 50% and 100%). While these overall results are plausible, a detailed review of these tables finds that each method sometimes goes against the expected direction and rate of change for individual industries. For example, the two shift-share methods shown in Table 6.3 project increases in fishing and forestry employment, a result not expected given trends in Franklin County. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 63 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Table 6.2 Employment Projections by Industry in Franklin County Using the Constant-Share Method, 2010 Observed Employment 2000 NA NA NA 502 0 10 143 82 306 417 60 19 103 134 55 0 60 3 273 19 463 82 0 10 2,741 31 261 420 712 3,453 Method Pattern Area Cap Level NAICS NAICS Industrial Sector 11 Forestry, fishing, etc. 21 Mining 22 Utilities 23 Construction 31-33 Manufacturing 42 Wholesale trade 44-45 Retail trade 48-49 Transp & warehousing 51 Information 52 Finance & insurance 53 Real estate 54 Prof, sci & tech svcs 55 Mgt of companies 56 Admin, support, waste mgt 61 Educational services 62 Health care 71 Arts, entertainment & rec 72 Accomm. & food svcs 81 Other services 95 Auxiliaries 99 Unclassified Total-Private Firms Federal Government State Government Local Government Total-Public Sector TOTAL EMPLOYMENT Projected Employment 2010 Constant-Share Florida None 395 0 10 159 81 358 488 68 21 112 165 76 0 83 4 364 24 545 97 0 11 3,061 32 285 498 815 3,876 Projected Employment 2010 Constant-Share Region None 395 0 11 164 90 364 473 71 23 114 181 62 0 67 3 357 26 562 92 0 11 3,066 30 292 472 793 3,859 A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 64 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Table 6.3 Employment Projections by Industry in Franklin County Using the Shift-Share Method, 2010 Observed Employment 2000 NA NA NA 502 0 10 143 82 306 417 60 19 103 134 55 0 60 3 273 19 463 82 0 10 2,741 31 261 420 712 3,453 Method Pattern Area Cap Level NAICS NAICS Industrial Sector 11 Forestry, fishing, etc. 21 Mining 22 Utilities 23 Construction 31-33 Manufacturing 42 Wholesale trade 44-45 Retail trade 48-49 Transp & warehousing 51 Information 52 Finance & insurance 53 Real estate 54 Prof, sci & tech svcs 55 Mgt of companies 56 Admin, support, waste mgt 61 Educational services 62 Health care 71 Arts, entertainment & rec 72 Accomm. & food svcs 81 Other services 95 Auxiliaries 99 Unclassified Total-Private Firms Federal Government State Government Local Government Total-Public Sector TOTAL EMPLOYMENT Projected Employment 2010 Constant-Share Florida 25% / 50% 646 0 7 231 111 511 428 86 18 92 232 48 0 53 2 396 28 776 134 0 6 3,805 48 392 447 887 4,692 Projected Employment 2010 Constant-Share Region 50% / 100% 858 0 7 260 117 664 442 102 18 88 292 36 0 23 2 443 27 994 103 0 6 4,482 63 392 447 903 5,385 A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 65 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Because these methods yielded mixed results when reviewed at the industry by industry level, it was determined that a ‘combined CS/SS method’ was appropriate for generating an employment forecast for Franklin County that fit the growth scenario outlined in Section 5.0. Under the ‘combined method’, the projections were evaluated on an industry by industry level and a ‘best fitting’ projection was identified for each industry. The ‘best fitting’ projection was identified through a review of the fit of each method’s results against the scenario discussed in Section 5.0. The employment projections generated by the ‘combined method’ is shown in Table 6.4. These figures represent the final employment forecast for Franklin County for 2010. This forecast predicts an employment increase of 31.2% between 2000 and 2010. The net number of jobs to be added to the local economy is predicted to be 1,078, roughly one job for every three new residents predicted to be living in Franklin County in 2010. The majority of this new employment is expected to be in three industries: 1) construction (117 new jobs), 2) accommodation and food services (313 new jobs), and 3) state government (324 new jobs). Increases in these first two sectors is wholly expected given the large residential communities coming to the county and the number of new residents predicted for the county as well. At first glance, the forecast for state government employment seems at odds with current state government policy, which is to cut state employment and outsource state jobs to the private sector. However, as discussed in Section 5.1.5, Franklin County is expected to have a new state prison by 2010 which will bring 300 new state jobs to the county. These 300 state prison jobs account for over one quarter of the new jobs expected in the county. If these jobs are removed from the forecast, the net jobs added falls to 778 and the percentage increase falls to 22.5% This forecast fits the employment growth scenario outlined in Section 5.0. Franklin County’s economy will lose resource-based jobs (in the fishing sector), but will more than compensate with increases in employment related to the rising attractiveness of the county to new residents and visitors to the region. The county’s economy is expected to continue its shift towards a service-based economy, a shift that has occurred throughout much of Florida. Table 6.5 shows the 2000 observed employment and 2010 forecast employment by industrial sector. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 66 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Table 6.4 An Employment Forecast by Industry for Franklin County, 2010 NAICS Industrial NAICS Sector 11 Forestry, fishing, etc. 21 Mining 22 Utilities 23 Construction 31-33 Manufacturing 42 Wholesale trade 44-45 Retail trade 48-49 Transp & warehsg 51 Information 52 Finance & insurance 53 Real estate 54 Prof, sci & tech svcs 55 Mgt of companies 56 Admin, support 61 Educational services 62 Health care 71 Arts, enter. & rec 72 Accom & food svcs 81 Other services 95 Auxiliaries 99 Unclassified Total-Private Firms Federal Government State Government Local Government Total-Public Sector TOTAL EMPLOYMENT Expected Trend Dec., Slow Dec., Slow Level Inc., Fast Level Level Inc., Fast Inc., Slow Inc., Slow Inc., Slow Inc., Moderate Inc., Slow Inc., Slow Inc., Slow Inc., Slow Inc., Moderate Inc., Slow Inc., Moderate Inc., Moderate Level Level Level Inc., Fast Inc., Moderate Observed Employment 2000 502 0 10 143 82 306 417 60 19 103 134 55 0 60 3 273 19 463 82 0 10 2,741 31 261 420 712 3,453 Projected Method that Employment Generated 2010 these Results 395 CS-Region 0 CS-Region 11 CS-Region 260 SS-50/100 90 CS-Region 358 CS-State 488 CS-State 71 CS-Region 23 CS-Region 114 CS-Region 232 SS-25/50 62 CS-Region 0 CS-Region 67 CS-Region 4 CS-State 357 CS-Region 26 CS-Region 776 SS-25/50 97 CS-State 0 CS-Region 11 CS-Region 3,442 32 CS-State 585 CS-State 472 CS-Region 1,089 4,531 A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 67 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Table 6.5 Employment by Industry in Franklin County, 2000 and 2010 Employment NAICS NAICS Category Name 2000 11 Forestry, fishing, etc. 502 21 Mining 0 22 Utilities 10 23 Construction 143 31-33 Manufacturing 82 42 Wholesale trade 306 44-45 Retail trade 417 48-49 Transp & warehousing 60 51 Information 19 52 Finance & insurance 103 53 Real estate 134 54 Prof, sci & tech svcs 55 55 Mgt of companies 0 56 Admin, support, waste mgt 60 61 Educational services 3 62 Health care 273 71 Arts, entertainment & rec 19 72 Accomm. & food svcs 463 81 Other services 82 95 Auxiliaries 0 99 Unclassified 10 2,741 Total-Private Firms Federal Government 31 State Government 261 Local Government 420 712 Total-Public Sector 3,453 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT Percent by Employment Industry 2010 14.5% 395 0.0% 0 0.3% 11 4.1% 260 2.4% 90 8.9% 358 12.1% 488 1.7% 71 0.6% 23 3.0% 114 3.9% 232 1.6% 62 0.0% 0 1.7% 67 0.1% 4 7.9% 357 0.6% 26 13.4% 776 2.4% 97 0.0% 0 0.3% 11 79.4% 3,442 0.9% 32 7.6% 585 12.2% 472 20.6% 1,089 100.0% 4,531 Percent by Industry 8.7% 0.0% 0.2% 5.7% 2.0% 7.9% 10.8% 1.6% 0.5% 2.5% 5.1% 1.4% 0.0% 1.5% 0.1% 7.9% 0.6% 17.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.2% 76.0% 0.7% 12.9% 10.4% 24.0% 100.0% A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 68 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County 6.5 The Forecasting Approach, 2010-2020 6.5.1 An Overview of the Forecast Methodology As noted in Section 6.1, the constant-share and shift-share methods employed to generate an employment forecast for the period 2000-2010 could not be used for the period 2010-2020. Pattern area employment projections, a necessary input to these methodologies, are not available beyond 2010. As a consequence, a different methodology had to be utilized to make employment projections for the period 2010-2020. Two methodologies were employed to make employment projections for the period 2010-2020. The chosen methodologies are variations on the ratio approaches discussed in Section 3.3.2 and Technical Appendix A. The 2010-2020 employment forecasting methods are discussed and the calculations are shown in Technical Appendix B. The first methodology is a variation of the constant-share method. Under this approach the industry by industry growth rate that was calculated for the period 2000-2010 is held constant for the period 2010-2020. For example, the Construction sector was forecast to grow by 81.8% between 2000 and 2010 (from 143 to 260 jobs). This growth rate was then held constant for the period 2010-2020, yielding a construction employment projection of 473 in 2020. The second methodology is a variation of the shift-share approach, but in this case population growth is used to provide a shift term. This second method therefore recognizes the inherent relationship between population and employment. For the period 2000-2010, it was recognized that the population and employment forecasts yielded almost identical growth rates; the population growth rate was 31.4% while the employment growth rate was 31.2%. These similar growth rates were generated by separate forecasting processes that did not explicitly capture the relationship between population and employment. Consequently, it was determined that the forecast change in population growth rate for the period 2000-2010 to 2010-2020 might offer a useful shift term in the production of an employment forecast for this same time period. The population growth rate was therefore used as a means of moderating the growth effect in employment during the period 2010-2020. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 69 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County 6.6 Results of the Projection Methods 2010-2020 These two methods were utilized to generate employment projections for Franklin County for the period 2010-2020. The results from these two projection methods are presented by NAICS major industry category in Table 6.6. The final employment forecast for the period 2010-2020 is presented in Table 6.7. For detail on the calculations behind each method see Technical Appendix B. Table 6.6 Employment Projections by Industry in Franklin County, 2020 NAICS Code NAICS Industrial Sector 11 Forestry, fishing, etc. 21 Mining 22 Utilities 23 Construction 31-33 Manufacturing 42 Wholesale trade 44-45 Retail trade 48-49 Transp & warehousing 51 Information 52 Finance & insurance 53 Real estate 54 Prof, sci & tech svcs 55 Mgt of companies 56 Admin, support, waste mgt 61 Educational services 62 Health care 71 Arts, entertainment & rec 72 Accomm. & food svcs 81 Other services 95 Auxiliaries 99 Unclassified Total-Private Firms Federal Government State Government Local Government Total-Public Sector TOTAL EMPLOYMENT Observed Forecast Con-Share Shift-Share 2000 2010 2020 2020 502 395 311 337 0 0 0 0 10 11 12 12 143 260 473 406 82 90 99 96 306 358 419 400 417 488 571 545 60 71 84 80 19 23 28 26 103 114 126 122 134 232 402 348 55 62 70 67 0 0 0 0 60 67 75 72 3 4 5 5 273 357 467 432 19 26 36 33 463 776 1,301 1,136 82 97 115 109 0 0 0 0 10 11 12 12 2,741 3,442 4,604 4,238 31 32 33 33 261 585 611 603 420 472 530 512 712 1089 1,175 1,148 3,453 4,531 5,779 5,386 A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 70 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Table 6.7 An Employment Forecast by Industry for Franklin County, 2020 Expected Trend Dec., Slow Dec., Slow Level Inc., Fast Level Level Inc., Fast Inc., Slow Inc., Slow Inc., Slow Inc., Moderate Inc., Slow Inc., Slow Inc., Slow Inc., Slow Inc., Moderate Inc., Slow Inc., Moderate Inc., Moderate Level Level Level Inc., Fast Inc., Moderate NAICS Industrial NAICS Sector 11 Forestry, fishing, etc. 21 Mining 22 Utilities 23 Construction 31-33 Manufacturing 42 Wholesale trade 44-45 Retail trade 48-49 Transp & warehsg 51 Information 52 Finance & insurance 53 Real estate 54 Prof, sci & tech svcs 55 Mgt of companies 56 Admin, support 61 Educational services 62 Health care 71 Arts, enter. & rec 72 Accom & food svcs 81 Other services 95 Auxiliaries 99 Unclassified Total-Private Firms Federal Government State Government Local Government Total-Public Sector TOTAL EMPLOYMENT Forecast Employment 2010 395 0 11 260 90 358 488 71 23 114 232 62 0 67 4 357 26 776 97 0 11 3,442 32 585 472 1,089 4,531 Forecast Method that Employment Generated 2020 these Results 311 CS 0 Both 12 Both 473 CS 96 SS 400 SS 571 CS 80 SS 28 CS 126 CS 402 CS 70 CS 0 Both 72 SS 5 Both 467 CS 36 CS 1,136 SS 109 SS 0 Both 12 Both 4,406 33 Both 603 SS 512 SS 1,148 5,554 A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 71 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County The employment forecast for 2010-2020 reflects the growth scenario developed in Section 5.0. The forecast shows continued decline in fishing employment, balanced by growth in service-based industries, such as retail and accommodation, and continued growth in real estateoriented industries, such as construction and real estate. The overall employment growth rate for this period is expected to be 22.6%, closely mirroring the forecast population growth rate for the period (21.5%). 6.7 The Combined Employment Forecast for Franklin County, 2000-2020 Putting this two-stage forecasting approach together, Table 6.8 illustrates the observed employment by industry for 2000 and the forecast employment by industry for 2010 and 2020. Table 6.9 illustrates the percent employment by industry for 2000, 2010, and 2020. Franklin County’s economy is expected to grow substantially in the next 20 years, continuing its transition from a small rural county with an economy partly based in resourcebased employment to a growing, more developed county whose economic base lies in several industries. Between 2000-2020, Franklin County’s economy is predicted to grow by roughly 61%, adding just over 2,100 total jobs. A slightly greater proportion of the net job growth in the 2000-2020 period is predicted to occur by 2010 (51.2%), but much of this near term employment growth is attributable to the state prison coming to the county. The 2010-2020 period is expected to be a period in which the county economy continues to diversify, with job growth coming more generally across the entire economy. During the 2000-2020 period, those industries expected to experience the highest growth rates are construction (231%), real estate (200%), accommodation/food services (146%), and state government (131%). Only one major industrial sector is predicted to lose employment, forestry/fishing, with a predicted decline in employment of 38%. Lastly, the percentage of employment in the public sector is expected to increase between 2000-2010 to roughly 24% (largely related to the state prison jobs), but fall back to its 2000 level of roughly 21% by 2020. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 72 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Table 6.8 Combined Employment Forecast by Industry for Franklin County, 2000-2020 NAICS Industrial NAICS Sector 11 Forestry, fishing 21 Mining 22 Utilities 23 Construction 31-33 Manufacturing 42 Wholesale trade 44-45 Retail trade 48-49 Transp & ware 51 Information 52 Finance & ins. 53 Real estate 54 Prof & tech svcs 55 Mgt companies 56 Admin, support 61 Educ services 62 Health care 71 Arts, enter. & rec 72 Acc & food svcs 81 Other services 95 Auxiliaries 99 Unclassified Total-Private Firms Federal Government State Government Local Government Total-Public Sector TOTAL EMPLOYMENT Observed Employ. 2000 502 0 10 143 82 306 417 60 19 103 134 55 0 60 3 273 19 463 82 0 10 2,741 31 261 420 712 3,453 Forecast Employ. 2010 395 0 11 260 90 358 488 71 23 114 232 62 0 67 4 357 26 776 97 0 11 3,442 32 585 472 1,089 4,531 Percent Change ’00-‘10 -21.3% 0.0% 10.0% 81.8% 9.8% 17.0% 17.0% 18.3% 21.1% 10.7% 73.1% 12.7% 0.0% 11.7% 33.3% 30.8% 36.8% 67.6% 18.3% 0.0% 10.0% 25.6% 3.2% 124.1% 12.4% 52.9% 31.2% Forecast Employ. 2020 311 0 12 473 96 400 571 80 28 126 402 70 0 72 5 467 36 1,136 109 0 12 4,406 33 603 512 1,148 5,554 Percent Change ’00-‘20 -21.3% 0.0% 9.1% 81.9% 6.7% 11.7% 17.0% 12.7% 21.7% 10.5% 73.3% 12.9% 0.0% 7.5% 25.0% 30.8% 38.5% 46.4% 12.4% 0.0% 9.1% 28.0% 3.1% 3.1% 8.5% 5.4% 22.6% A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 73 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Table 6.9 Percent Employment by Industry for Franklin County, 2000-2020 Percent NAICS Industrial Employment NAICS Sector 2000 11 Forestry, fishing 14.5% 21 Mining 0.0% 22 Utilities 0.3% 23 Construction 4.1% 31-33 Manufacturing 2.4% 42 Wholesale trade 8.9% 44-45 Retail trade 12.1% 48-49 Transp & ware 1.7% 51 Information 0.6% 52 Finance & ins. 3.0% 53 Real estate 3.9% 54 Prof & tech svcs 1.6% 55 Mgt companies 0.0% 56 Admin, support 1.7% 61 Educ services 0.1% 62 Health care 7.9% 71 Arts, enter. & rec 0.6% 72 Acc & food svcs 13.4% 81 Other services 2.4% 95 Auxiliaries 0.0% 99 Unclassified 0.3% 79.4% Total-Private Firms Federal Government 0.9% State Government 7.6% Local Government 12.2% 20.6% Total-Public Sector 100.0% TOTAL EMPLOYMENT Percent Employment 2010 8.7% 0.0% 0.2% 5.7% 2.0% 7.9% 10.8% 1.6% 0.5% 2.5% 5.1% 1.4% 0.0% 1.5% 0.1% 7.9% 0.6% 17.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.2% 76.0% 0.7% 12.9% 10.4% 24.0% 100.0% Percent Employment 2020 5.6% 0.0% 0.2% 8.5% 1.7% 7.2% 10.3% 1.4% 0.5% 2.3% 7.2% 1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 8.4% 0.6% 20.5% 2.0% 0.0% 0.2% 79.3% 0.6% 10.9% 9.2% 20.7% 100.0% A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 74 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County In closing, it is important to note that this study did not review the quality of the jobs likely to be created in the county in the next twenty years. While the quantity of jobs may be increasing in the coming decades, there are potential issues related to the quality of jobs being created in the county. Employment in the retail and accommodations sectors often pays less than jobs in resource-based sectors. While the prison-related jobs will be relatively well-paying, county leaders need to monitor closely not only the amount of employment, but the quality of this employment as well. Despite this concern, the overall outlook for the Franklin County economy is promising. The local economy is forecast to grow substantially in the coming decades, offering more employment opportunities to existing and new residents. While the coming decades portend a great deal of change for the county, there are certain to be economic opportunities that, with proper planning and active local leadership, can bring substantial benefits to current and future residents of the county. A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 75 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County SECTION 7.0 7.1 References REFERENCES AND WEB RESOURCES Bureau of Economic and Business Research. (2002). Florida Statistical Abstract. University of Florida: Gainesville, FL. Census Bureau Building Permit Data. (2003). http://censtats.census.gov/bldg/bldgprmt.shtml Franklin County Roundtable. (2003, April). Meeting Attendees included: Alan Pierce, Franklin County Planning Director; Anita Grove of the Apalachicola Bay Chamber of Commerce; Billy Buzzett, Director of Strategic Planning St. Joe; local realtors; and local business owners. Klosterman, Richard. (1990). Community Analysis and Planning Techniques. Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc.: Savage, MD. Nelson, Arthur, and James Nicholas. (1992). “Estimating Functional Population for Facility Planning.” Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 118 (2). Pierce, Alan (2003). http://consensus.fsu.edu/franklin/background.html Ritchie, Bruce. (2003, April 23). State to buy Tate’s Hell land. Tallahassee Democrat, p.1. Smith, Stanley, Jeff Tayman, and David Swanson. (2002). State and Local Population Projections: Methodology and Analysis. Kluwer Academic Press: New York. 7.2 Web Resources 7.2.1 United States Census Bureau Web Resources (http://www.census.gov) Census 2000 page: http://www.census.gov/main/www/cen2000.html State and County Quickfacts: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/ American FactFinder page: http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/BasicFactsServlet County Business Patterns: http://www.census.gov/epcd/cbp/view/cbpview.html A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 76 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County Nonemployer Statistics: http://www.census.gov/epcd/nonemployer/ Building Permit Data: http://censtats.census.gov/bldg/bldgprmt.shtml Bridge Between SIC and NAICS: http://www.census.gov/epcd/ec97brdg/ NAICS/SIC Correspondence Tables: http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naicstab.htm North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) page: http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) page: http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/sic.html 7.2.2 Agency for Workforce Innovation (AWI) (http://www.floridajobs.org) AWI Labor Market Information page: http://www.labormarketinfo.com/ AWI ES-202 download page: http://www.labormarketinfo.com/es202/es202.htm AWI Employment Projections page: http://www.labormarketinfo.com/oes-proj/oes.htm 7.2.3 Franklin County Community Planning Process (http://consensus.fsu.edu/franklin/) Background on Franklin County: http://consensus.fsu.edu/franklin/background.html Community Issues and Options Workshop Report: http://consensus.fsu.edu/franklin/Wks1Rpt_b.pdf Growth and Economic Development Workshop Report: http://consensus.fsu.edu/franklin/Wksh2rpt_final.pdf Natural Resources Workshop Report: http://consensus.fsu.edu/franklin/Wks3Rpt.pdf Infrastructure and Public Services Workshop: http://consensus.fsu.edu/franklin/Wksh4Rpt.pdf 7.2.4 Franklin County Links (http://franklincountyflorida.com) Apalachicola Bay Chamber of Commerce: http://www.apalachicolabay.org/ SummerCamp Development page: http://www.arvida.com/summercamp/ St. James Bay page: http://www.stjamesbay.com/ Gramercy Plantation page: http://gramercyplantation.com/ A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 77 A Population and Employment Forecast for Franklin County 7.2.5 Other Web Resources The Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR): http://www.bebr.ufl.edu/ The National Center for Health Statistics Life Tables: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/pubs/pubd/lftbls/lftbls.htm Florida’s Great Northwest: http://www.floridasgreatnorthwest.com/index2.htm Arvida’s Florida’s Great Northwest page: http://www.arvida.com/floridasgreatnw/index.html Arvida home page: http://www.arvida.com/ St. Joe home page: http://www.joe.com/ A Report Prepared by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at Florida State University 78