TSR Continues to Forecast a Very Active Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2008
Monte Carlo, 8 September 2008 - Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the award-winning consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting led by the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre at University College London, today reiterated its previous forecast that the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season would be very active to a high probability. As stated in their early August outlook TSR expects Atlantic basin activity in 2008 to be about 80% above the 1950-2007 long-term norm. However, TSR raised its previous forecast for US landfalling activity to 150% above-norm. The hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 November, with 10 September marking the climatological peak in activity.
TSR’s updated outlook includes: A 97% probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, only a 3% probability of a near-normal season and no chance of a below-normal season. An expectation of 18 tropical storms for the Atlantic basin as a whole, with 10 of these being hurricanes and 5 of these being intense hurricanes. (To date there have been 10 tropical storms with 5 of these being hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes; the climate norm numbers for the whole season are 10, 6 and 3 respectively). An expectation of 7 tropical storm strikes on the U.S., of which 4 will be hurricanes. (To date there have been 4 tropical storm strikes of which 2 were hurricanes; the climate norm numbers for the whole season are 3.1 and 1.5 respectively).
Dr Adam Lea, a TSR Research Fellow, commenting on the 2008 hurricane season so far and TSR’s updated outlook said: “Atlantic basin hurricane activity so far has been 100% above-norm. This ranks 2008 as the 7th most active hurricane year to date since 1950. TSR believes this high activity is due to a combination of weaker than normal trade winds over the Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic and to warmer than normal sea waters between west Africa and the Caribbean. TSR anticipates a continuation but slight decrease in abovenorm activity during September and October.”
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For further information please contact: Ansi Vallens Signals & Strategies New York Tel: +1 518 392 4238
ansisvallens@taconic.net
Dr Adam Lea TSR Consortium Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre Tel: +44 (0)1483 204 217
al@mssl.ucl.ac.uk
Rebecca Coombes Benfield London, UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7522 3850
rebecca.coombes@benfieldgroup.com
Notes to Editors:
About Tropical Storm Risk (TSR): Founded in 2000, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) offers a leading resource for forecasting the risk from tropical storms worldwide. The venture provides innovative forecast products to increase risk awareness and to help decision making within the (re)insurance industry, other business sectors, government and society. The TSR consortium is co-sponsored by Benfield, the world’s leading independent reinsurance and risk intermediary, Royal & Sun Alliance, the global insurance group, and Crawford & Company, a global claims management solutions company. The TSR scientific grouping brings together climate physicists, meteorologists and statisticians at University College London and the Met Office. www.tropicalstormrisk.com. Tropical Storm Risk has won two major insurance industry awards during the past four years. In 2006 TSR was awarded the prestigious Risk Management Award at the British Insurance Awards, and in 2004 won the British Insurance Award for London Market Innovation of the Year.
About Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre: With 60 researchers and practitioners, the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre is Europe's leading multidisciplinary academic hazard research centre. BUHRC comprises three groups: Geological Hazards, Meteorological Hazards & Seasonal Forecasting, and Disaster Studies & Management. The Centre is based at University College London, which is listed in the global top ten of the Times Higher Education SupplementQS World University Rankings 2007. BUHRC is sponsored by Benfield, the world's leading independent reinsurance and risk intermediary. www.benfieldhrc.org
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