European Fertilizer Manufacturers Association
The EFMA Forecast
Forecast of Food, Farming and Fertilizer Use In the European Union Methodology
June 05
1
The EFMA forecast :
Agenda :
The methodology for the EFMA forecast :
» The objectives. » The principles.
Assumptions and scenario : The National approach. Forecast in NMS.
June 05 2
The EFMA forecast :
The objectives, principles and main stages
June 05
3
The EFMA forecast :
Objectives & principles.
Long term consumption forecast :
Parallel and convergent with sales forecast (ISC) :
>> « Full convergence » by campaign n-2/n-3.
A « down-up » procedure, step by step :
» » » Per country. Crop acreage forecast, considering :
Global and European Agro-economic trends. Agricultural policies. Evolution of technologies and agricultural practices. Environmental policies.
Application rate forecast, considering :
Short term to long term forecast :
5 Campaigns : n-2/n-1, n-1/n, n/n+1, n+4/n+5, n+9/n+10
Based on « scenarios for the future » :
» »
June 05
General trends, global and European. National projections.
4
The EFMA forecast :
Various stages of the process : an expert approach
1/ Building a scenario :
» The « European context », prepared by the leader of the WG :
Agro-economic series & trends, world & Europe. Agricultural & Environmental policies.
March
2/ The EFMA scenario for a European agriculture.
>> The impact on fertilizer use, as foreseen by the forecast WG.
April
May May- June
3/ Adapting the EFMA scenario to national level.
The impact of national situation and policies >> the « country report ».
4/ Making the national forecast.
5/ Finalizing the European approach.
Critical approach of the forecast WG on each national scenario.
June
July
6/ Finalizing the European forecast : integration of all nationals. 7/ Publishing and circulating the forecast.
June 05
September
5
The EFMA forecast :
Assumptions and scenario
June 05
6
The EFMA forecast : Building the EU scenario.
Back-ground information :
» Quantitative.
Global : FAPRI, USDA & OECD EU : EU Commission and EEA.
» Qualitative.
Contact with EU experts (Agri & Env).
Building the scenario :
» Selecting relevant information for EFMA forecasters. » Proposing a draft scenario. » Discussing the scenario in plenum.
June 05 7
The EFMA forecast :
Back ground information for the EU scenario
June 05
8
The EFMA forecast :
Back ground information for the EU scenario :
EU 15
June 05
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The EFMA forecast :
Back ground information for the EU scenario :
June 05
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The EFMA forecast :
Back ground information for the EU scenario :
June 05
11
The EFMA forecast :
Back ground information for the EU scenario :
June 05
12
The EFMA forecast :
Back ground information for the EU scenario :
EU 25 CAP Reform E U prospects
June 05
13
The EFMA forecast :
Back ground information for the EU scenario :
June 05
14
Scenario for the forecast
( Example ) Impact of the CAP reform : the impact assessment. Full decoupling :
(single payment per ha, whatever crop is grown)
>> decrease of COPs area, crops with high application rate. but limited : safety net of the intervention price.
Cross compliance :
(stricter implementation of environmental regulations)
>> slight decrease of N application rate to be expected.
June 05 15
The EFMA forecast :
The National approach : developing the Expertise
June 05
16
The EFMA forecast :
The National approach.
Sources of information for Application rate :
Crop needs (- nutrients from other sources). Advisory service, consultants. Publications (scientific, “Farmers weekly”). Your control calculation. Watch “other nutrient sources” (National budget !) :
» farmyard manure, slurry
» sewage sludge » others » efficiency
June 05 17
The EFMA forecast :
The National approach.
Sources of information for Crop area planted :
Statistical yearbook. Newspapers, journals, etc… News agencies e.g. Agra Europe. Press releases :
- Ministry of Agriculture. - Growers associations. - Newspaper / journal for merchants. - International produce traders. - Plant breeders / -associations.
June 05
18
The EFMA forecast :
The National approach.
Sources of information for Environmental policy :
Implementation of EU-rules and –programmes. National programmes. National / regional limitations. points of discussion (conferences, media). Intensity of discussions (conferences, media). Direct contacts (ministry, n.g.o., administration).
June 05
19
The EFMA forecast :
The National approach.
Some bits of experience :
Agriculture does not jump ! Watch out for crucial political decisions. Never believe just one source … Regular amendments of the set of data lead to a stable and reliable base. You are the best one to judge and to decide ! Accept that you can’t be (always) right !
June 05
20
The EFMA forecast :
Methodologies developed for the New Member States
June 05
21
The New Member States
A transition period for the forecast exercise : EU 15 and EEC 10 still separated. Three methodologies used, all “desk research” :
» Trends of consumption volumes (2001 & 2002):
>> Crossed with historical comparison (France).
» First crop based approach (2003):
First developed for Poland : EU model for areas + “expert model” for rates. Extended to 4 countries : Hungary, Czech Rep and Slovakia.
» Second crop based approach (2004):
Crop areas : EU model + extension to other crops. Rates : Crossing previous model, sales and local information. Extended to 8 countries.
>> Time to use the “full method”, with Experts.
June 05 22
The EFMA forecast :
Thank you !
June 05
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