PersPectives
An Iranian Bombshell
How Israel Can and Will Respond
ALON BEN-MEIR is a Senior Fellow at New York University’s School of
Global Affairs. An expert on Middle East politics and affairs and a specialist in
peace negotiations between Israel and the Arab states, he has authored
numerous books related to Middle East policy.
M
uch has been written and argued about what attacking or not attacking, Israel will ultimately determine
Israel can do to effectively address Iran’s how to address Iran’s nuclear ambitions once it reaches
nuclear program, which Israel views as a breakout capacity. That is, if Iran reaches the technological
credible existential threat. Most Israelis breakthrough necessary to create a nuclear device, then Israel
believe that Iran is determined to acquire will attack Iran regardless of the consequences that such an
nuclear weapons and remain skeptical about the prospect attack would cause.
of a diplomatic solution to neutralize the Iranian threat.
There is hardly any public discussion in Israel concerning the Israel’s National Mindset
acceptance of a nuclear Iran, and the question of the nation’s No dialogue about Israel’s concerns with Iran’s nuclear
course of action is willingly left to the defense cabinet and a program is complete without a discussion of Israel’s national
small group within the intelligence establishment. psychological disposition and an understanding of what
What has largely been missing from the Israeli public causes this mindset. More than sixty years of independence
discussion is an analysis of the circumstances under which an with demonstrable military prowess has not mitigated the
Israeli attack on Iran could take place. To understand Israel’s national security obsession amongst Israelis, as the threat
strategic thinking, it is necessary to look into the country’s of being a target for annihilation remains grounded in their
national mindset and the internal debate surrounding the collective consciousness. No Israeli leader takes Israel’s
possibilities of an attack on Iran. In addition, it is critical to ability to defend itself for granted, regardless of the proven
review Israel’s nuclear doctrine, its military capabilities and military superiority of the Israeli defense forces. Even the
its national resolve to neutralize Iran’s nuclear weapons pro- minimal risk of exposing Israelis to an Iranian attack would
gram. By virtue of Israel’s special relations with the United not be accepted by a country that still lives in the shadows
States, the importance of the US position must also be ex- of the Holocaust, which claimed the lives of more than six
plored, as Israel’s national security concerns are intertwined million Jews. Many Israelis feel that dismissing the Iranian
with America’s strategic regional calculus. Finally, while threat would come at their peril, as Iran has directly and
many Israelis weigh the Iranian threat against the risks of repeatedly threatened Israel’s existence. Iran also continues
12 H A R v A R d I N T E R N A T I o N A L R E v I E W • Spring 2010 Photo Courtesy Reuters
PersPectives
to financially and militarily support proxy groups, including cerning a new regional conflict with a Muslim state, and the
Hezbollah and Hamas that have vowed to destroy Israel. strong likelihood that Iran would act against US interests,
Israel’s defense doctrine is based on the premise that no Israelis largely agree that it would be ill-advised to attack Iran
enemy should be able to muster the capability to threaten unilaterally unless as an absolute last resort. In this respect,
Israel’s existence with impunity, and all measures must be there is a clear understanding among Israel’s academic, se-
taken to avert and neutralize such threats. With this doc- curity, and intelligence sectors that at the present juncture,
trine in mind, Israel lends no credence to the idea floated there is no viable alternative to coordinating Israel’s strategy
by several US scholars—including former national security toward Iran with that of the United States. This stems from
advisors Zbigniew Brzezinski and Brent Scowcroft—that the conviction that such an attack would have disastrous
Israel’s nuclear arsenals constitute an effective deterrence. regional consequences and could potentially sabotage efforts
toward a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace deal.
The Internal Debate There is a small minority of Israelis led by scholar and
Most of Israel’s political, academic, and security ap- defense analyst, Reuven Pedatzur, who argue that Israel
paratuses view Iran’s nuclear program and the international might have to live with a nuclear Iran. He maintains that
debate that surrounds it from a unified perspective,