Monetary Policy and Inflation Chapter 29 & 30 Monetary Policy Channel of Monetary Policy • When the central bank increases the monetary base, the money supply will increase. • Banks have excess liquidity which they use to make more loans. • The supply of liquidity will exceed demand and banks must compete to attract borrowers who will hold this liquidity only at a lower interest rate. Dynamics of Monetary Transmission • Money supply expansion reduces interest rates • Lower interest rates implies an increase in borrowing and affects demand for interest sensitive goods. • Lower interest rates increase demand for US$ in forex market depreciating the exchange rate. • Aggregate demand shifts out. Given fixed input prices this increase in demand stimulates output. Monetary Transmission Mechanism ECB Web Site Monetary Policy: Money Supply Expands Money Supply i Money Supply’ i* 1 i** Money Demand 2 M Expansionary Monetary Policy P ΔI ΔC, ΔNX AD′ AD Y An Expansionary Cycle Driven by 1. Economy at monetary policy LT YP. 2. Monetary YP Policy Cuts P Interest Rate 3 SRAS 3. Investment 2 rises. The P* AD curve shifts out. 1 4. Tight labor AD′ markets. AD SRAS returns to Output Gap Y long run equilibrium Monetary Policy – Short-term vs. Long Term • In the short-run, expansionary monetary policy can boost economic growth. • But in the long-run, expansionary monetary policy only leads to rising prices (i.e. inflation). Interest Rate Management • In most economies around the world, the central bank does not simply act to maintain a fixed money supply. • Rather, they adjust money supply to maintain and manage interest rate changes in response to business cycle conditions. Monetary Policy • In the US (and Euroland and Japan and most OECD economies), the central bank sets monetary policy by picking a short-run interest rate they would like to prevail. • In HK, the central bank sets monetary policy by picking a fixed exchange rate. U.S. Central bank cuts interest rates during recessions Demand Driven Recession 1. Economy in w/ Counter-cyclical monetary policy a recession. Fed detects YP deflationary P SRAS pressure AD′ 2. Monetary 1 3 Policy Cuts Interest Rate P* 2 3. Investment increases spending to AD shift the AD curve back to long run Gap < 0 Y equilibrium Demand Driven Expansion 1. Economy in w/ Counter-cyclical monetary policy expansion. Fed detects YP inflationary P SRAS pressure 2. Monetary 2 Policy Raises P* Interest Rate AD′ 1 3 3. Investment decreases AD spending to shift the AD curve back Gap > 0 Y to long run equilibrium Price Stability • Counter-cyclical monetary policy stabilizes output near potential output, YP, but also stabilizes the price level near P*. • Central banks may pursue price stability as a goal and also stabilize output as well if business cycles are caused by demand shocks. Policy Framework Price Stability • Fed Objective Humphrey Hawkins Act (1978): Fed instructed by Congress to be “conducting the nation's monetary policy .. in pursuit of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates “ • ECB Objective “The primary objective of the ECB’s monetary policy is to maintain price stability. The ECB aims at inflation rates of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.” • Japan Objective: Bank of Japan Act Article 2 Currency and monetary control by the Bank of Japan shall be aimed at achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy The Great Moderation •The Great Moderation by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Taylor Rule • Economist named John Taylor argues that US target interest rate is well represented by a function of 1. current inflation 2. Inflation GAP: current inflation vs. target inflation 3. Output Gap: % deviation of GDP from long run path • Function: Inflation Target π* = .02 itTGT .025 t 1 2 ( t * ) 1 2 Output Gapt The Taylor Rule Download What should be the current Fed Funds rate? Will they be increasing it soon? • Step 1. Find Inflation Rate • Step 2. Find Output Gap • Step 3. Calculate Taylor Rule implied rate and compare with current rate. Answer P_2008_2 121.91 P_2007_2 120.00 Inflation 0.016 Y 11740.3 YP 11904.0 Output Gap -0.014 Inflation Gap -0.004 Taylor Rule 0.032 Fed Funds Rate 0.02 Stagflation 1. Economy w/ Counter-cyclical monetary policy experiences stagflation YP SRAS 2. Monetary P 3 Policy Cuts Interest Rate P** 2 3. Investment P* 1 AD′ increases spending to shift the AD AD curve to long run equilibrium with higher Y prices. Stagflation 1. Economy w/ Price Stabiliztion experiences stagflation YP SRAS 2. Monetary P Policy Raises 2 Interest Rate 3 P* 1 3. Investment decreases spending to AD shift the AD curve to AD′ equilibrium with lower Y output. Monetary Policy and Supply Shocks • In the face of demand shocks, no trade-off between price and output stability. • In the face of supply shocks, such a trade- off exists. Question: Problem with Central Bank Stabilization • Situation: Economy is in long-run equilibrium, but central bank overestimates potential output. • Draw outcome if central bank believes that the potential output is higher than it is. A Bias toward Expansionary 1. Central Bank monetary policy repeatedly expands the YP money supply P 2. Inflation 5 recurs 4 P* 3 2 SRAS′ 1 AD′ SRAS AD YPhantom Y Monetary Policy Lags • Counter-cyclical fiscal policy beset by lags between the time a recession is recognized and the time the government can form consensus to act. • Monetary policy beset by lags between the time policy shifts and time for private sector to respond to lower interest rates. Inflation Quantity Theory • Simplest monetary theory is the Quantity Theory of Money. – Purchasing power of money is equal to the quantity of money (Mt) times the speed of circulation (V, # of transactions) – Purchasing power means # of goods (Yt) multiplied by price per good (Pt) Moneyt * Velocity = Pt * Yt Rule of Thumb • Rule of Thumb The growth rate of product is approximately equal to the sum of the growth rates of the elements of a product. Zt X t Yt g g g Z t t X Y t Z t Z t 1 g t Z Z t 1 Money and Inflation • Assuming stable velocity g t M g t Y t t g t P • Inflation occurs when money growth speeds ahead of output growth. The unbounded creation of fiat money leads to inflation which ultimately will make the money worthless. Money & Inflation: 1975-1994 Inflation & Money OECD Countries 0.2 0.18 0.16 Average Inflation Rate 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 Average Money Growth Ex Ante Rate and the Fisher Effect • Savings and investment decisions must be made before future inflation is known so they must be made on the basis of an ex ante (predicted) real interest rate. • Fisher Hypothesis: Ex ante real interest rate is determined by forces in the financial market. Money interest rate is just the real ex ante rate plus the market’s consensus forecast of inflation. it rt EA FORECAST t 1 Great Inflation of the 1970’s US Inflation Rates & Interest Rates 18.00 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 Interest Rates % 8.00 Inflation 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 Mar-55 Mar-58 Mar-61 Mar-64 Mar-67 Mar-70 Mar-73 Mar-76 Mar-79 Mar-82 Mar-85 Mar-88 Mar-91 Mar-94 Mar-97 Mar-00 Mar-03 Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/ Great Inflation Download Fisher Effect: OECD Economies Great Inflation of 1970’s 20 18 16 14 Interest Rates-1984 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Average Inflation 1970-1984 Loanable Funds Market Fisher Effect S i* r* tE 1 E t 1 I LF* LF Ex Ante vs. Ex post • We can also examine the ex post real return on a loan as the money interest rate less the actual outcome for inflation. rt ExP it ACTUAL t 1 • The gap between actual and forecast inflation determines the gap between the ex post (actual) and ex ante (forecast) return. rt ExP ExA rt t 1 FORECAST ACTUAL t 1 Unexpected Inflation Winners and Losers – Higher than expected inflation means ex post real rates are lower than ex ante. Borrowers are winners/lenders are losers. – Lower than expected inflation means ex post real rates are higher than ex ante. Lenders are winners/borrowers are losers. Inflation Risk • When inflation is variable, lenders will demand some premium for inflation risk. This will put cost on borrowers. • High inflation rates tend to be associated with unpredictable inflation. Costs of Anticipated Inflation • Shoe Leather Costs – Money is a technology for engaging in transactions. The greater is inflation, the greater the cost for individuals of holding money. Individuals must make efforts as a substitute for the convenience of holding money. • Menu Costs – Firms must engage in costs of changing posted prices. More generally, when prices change rapidly over time, more time and effort must be put into calculating relative prices. The Inflation Tax • Banknotes do not pay interest. • The real interest rate on banknotes is rt CASH t 1 • If inflation is high, currency has sharply negative returns. People will avoid holding money leading to society losing the convenience of money transactions. •Zimbabwe Inflation Download Causes of Extremely Rapid Inflation • Government generates revenues by printing new money (referred to as seignorage). • Government facing borrowing constraints may be forced to rely on inflation tax for deficit financing and real returns to owning money. • Explain the link between deficits and inflation. 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 19 70 19 71 19 72 19 73 19 74 19 75 19 76 19 77 19 78 19 79 19 80 Inflation 19 81 19 82 19 83 19 84 19 85 19 Israel 1970-1990 86 19 87 19 88 19 89 19 90 Israel 1970-1990 Surplus (% of GDP) 5.00% 0.00% 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 -5.00% -10.00% -15.00% -20.00% -25.00% -30.00% A Bias toward Expansionary 1. Central Bank monetary policy repeatedly expands the YP money supply P 2. Inflation 5 recurs 4 3. After a time, P* 3 as inflation 2 becomes SRAS′ 1 expected it AD′ will cease to SRAS impact output AD even in the short run. Inflationary Gap Y Features of Inflation Targeting A medium term communication strategy • Commitment to price stability as goal of monetary policy. • Clear statement of numerical target for inflation over the medium (1-2 year) term. • Communication with public about current forecasts of inflation and policy actions used to achieve target. • Central Bankers accountable for achieving goals. Yield Curve • The yield curve is the gap between the interest rate on long-term bonds and short- term bonds. • When long-term interest rates are high relative to the short-term interest rates, the yield curve is steep. • When short-term interest rates are relatively high, the yield curve is flat or inverted. Monetary Policy and the Yield Curve • Central bank expands the money supply and short-term interest rate will fall. • Negative effect on long term real interest rate but… • Also likely to increase inflationary expectations raising nominal long-term interest rates. • Yield Curve steepens when money supply expands and flattens when money supply contracts. •Yield Curve Download % 9/ 4/ 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 20 07 9/ 6/ 20 07 9/ 8/ 20 9/ 07 10 /2 00 9/ 12 7 /2 00 9/ 7 14 /2 00 9/ 7 16 /2 00 9/ 7 18 /2 00 9/ 7 20 /2 00 9/ 22 7 /2 00 9/ 7 24 /2 00 9/ 7 26 /2 00 9/ 7 US Yield Curve 28 Monetary Policy /2 00 7 10 Year 3 month Yield Curve September 2007: Expansionary Learning Outcome • Calculate the impact of inflation on long- term nominal interest rates using the theory of the Fisher effect. • Calculate real return on debt as a function of inflation and expected inflation. • Calculate real return on money as a function of inflation.