The Future of Home Entertainment - PowerPoint by mzo16564

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									    The Future of
  Home Entertainment
                 Moderator: Steffen Bartschat
SVP Engineering, Sonic Solutions & Co-chair, GABA Software IG
                  sbartschat@comcast.net
                     05 November 2009
                       Our Panelists

• Jeff Klugman - SVP/GM at TiVo.
• Jim Taylor - SVP & Chief Technologist at Sonic Solutions.
• Roland Vlaicu - Director of Technical Marketing, Dolby.
• Todd Collart - SVP New Media at Deluxe Digital Studios.
• Michael McGuire – VP Research at Gartner.
• Jerry Pierce – CEO/Founder at AZEC, Inc, and former
  SVP Technology, Universal Pictures.
          Overview: Technology in Transition

•   High Definition TV
•   Blu-ray Disc
•   3D
•   Set-top box / DVR
•   Smart TVs
•   Delivery
•   Casual Consumption & Device Integration
•   Media Server
•   Questions
•   Predictions
                             High Definition TV
80
70
60
50
40
                                           •   80% own DVD player
30
                                           •   78% own cell phone
20
                                           •   71% own PC
10                                         •   40% own video game system
0                                          •   20% own home theatre system
        2007        2008        2009
     Watch HD   Own HDTV   Own >32 in TV
                                           Source: CTAM
                                  Blu-Ray




Source: FutureSource Consulting
                                         3D
Would You Recommend the
     3D Experience?
                                         •   Cinema: 30 releases in 3D in 2009
            7%
                                         •   3D produces 3x revenue of 2D
                                23%      •   3D TV programming “widely
                                             accessible” by 2011..(?)
20%




                       50%

                                         Graph Source: Quixel Research
      Definitely Yes    Possibly Yes
      Probably Not      Definitely Not
                  Set-top Box / DVR

     DVR Penetration
                               • Time Shift (DVR)
                               • Place Shift (e.g. Slingbox)
80
                               • The “Google of Television” –
70                               TiVo CEO Tom Rogers
60
50
                       USA
40
                       UK
30                     Japan
20
10
0                              Graph Source:
     % of Homes
                                 ZenithOptimedia/Nielsen
              DVRs Are Changing TV/Ad
                      Viewing
                Viewers                                                       Viewers
              Timeshifting                                                 Fastforwarding


60%                                               60%
                                                                                            60%

50%                                               50%
                               50%                                                  50%
                                                                            44%
40%                                               40%
                       38%
30%            33%                                30%                30%

       23%                                        20%
20%


10%                                               10%


0%                                                  0%
      Cable   Cable   BCast   BCast                              Cable     Cable   BCast   BCast
       Day    Prime    Day    Prime                               Day      Prime    Day    Prime


                                 TiVo Inc. Proprietary Information                                 8
                                        Where are the commercials?
                  Grey’s Anatomy – ‘Staring at the Sun’

                                                                                          Live
                                                                                          Near Live (within 1 hour)
                                      10.0%
                                                                                          1-6 hour delay
Percentage of Viewers in Play Speed




                                                                                          4.6 hour – 2 week delay



                                      7.5%




                                      5.0%




                                      2.5%




                                      0.0%
                                              Time into Program (Ticks at 10 Minutes)


                                                      TiVo Inc. Proprietary Information                               9
                                Smart TV

     Connected Devices (in M)
                                     • iPhone: 2B downloads,
                                       100,000 apps!
30
                                     • “With iPhone everything
25                                     changed, we think a similar
                                       thing could happen on TVs” –
20                                     Eric Kim, SVP Intel
                           BD
15                         TV
                           Set-top
10                         Game

5

0
         2010 Est                    Graph Source: Parks Associates
                                     “Sofa Factor”
                 # Users (000's) - Monthly

300000
                                 Time Spent (Hrs) Per Month Per User
250000
                                                      Watch Phone
200000               160
                                                  139 Watch DVR                    141
150000               140                              Watch Internet
100000               120                              Surf Internet
                                                      Watch TV
50000                100
                     80
    0
              2008
                     60           2009
                     40                      26                               26
                     20      3   6       2                    3    7    3
                      0
                                     2008                              2009



   Source: The Nielsen Company
                                       Delivery
     How important is being able to
      watch videos on Internet vs.
         renting by store/mail?
                                         • DVD-by-mail business will
                                           peak in 5-10 years – Reed
90
                                           Hastings, CEO Netflix
80
70
                                         • “The concept of a flat-rate
60                                         infinitely expandable service is
50                                         unachievable” – Dick Lynch,
40                                         CTO Verizon
30
20
10
 0
        Very     Somewhat        Not     Graph Source: Kaufman Bros.,
                                           Zoomerang
         18-24   25-34   35-54   55+
                 Device Integration –
                  the Apple Factor
Portable Music Players   •   Apple TV – set top box - future
                             DVR?
                         •   iTunes – content delivery vehicle
                             & app store!
                         •   iPod, iPhone – casual portability

                         “Apple could leverage its deep library
                            of content with many network and
                            cable channel content owners to
                            provide unlimited access to a sub-
                            library of its TV shows for a
                            standard monthly fee” – Gene
                            Munster, analyst Piper Jaffray

                         $30-$40/month for iTunes vs.
   Apple     Other          $85/month for Cable?
   Sandisk   Microsoft
                         Graph Source: Apple Inc.
             Missing in Action: Media Server
• Remember 2007?
•   “As a software platform and an
    “always on” device in the home,
    Windows Home Server offers
    independent software vendors
    tremendous opportunities to build
    innovative products for the digital
    home. Microsoft anticipates that a
    wide range of third-party
    applications and tools will emerge
    for Windows Home Server, such
    as family schedule management,
    home automation systems,
    security solutions and more. “ –
    Microsoft, Jan 2007
Questions?
Predictions
   Time-Shifting is pervasive in DVR Homes
         and increases in Primetime
About 30M DVR households in US today; +50 M in 3 years




                           Total


                           Live

                           Time-shifted

								
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