WORKING PAPERS Iraq Status

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					    UNCLASSIFIED                                      20 0510 EDT Jul 04



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                   Iraq Status
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                        This briefing is classified
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                         UNCLASSIFIED
                     Derived from: Multiple Sources
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                                                              UNCLASSIFIED
      UNCLASSIFIED                                         20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                               WORKING PAPERS

           Highlights
D
  • The Chief Electoral Officer and seven Commissioners of the
E
    Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq completed a two week
P
A
    intensive training program in preparation for national elections
R
  • The recent completion of several planned electrical maintenance
T
M
    projects has provided some areas with more hours of electrical
E   power (per day) than in recent weeks
N
T
  • Total number of telephone subscribers in Iraq is now over
       1,318,000 (including 524,000 cell phone subscribers) - 58.2 %
O      above pre-war levels
F
  • Rehabilitation of a water treatment plant in a poor area of
D   Baghdad is complete, benefiting nearly one million residents
E
F • Iraq's Finance Ministry re-established a domestic bond market
E   with its first auction of treasury bills on 18 Jul
N
S
E
N/P                                    2                           UNCLASSIFIED
      UNCLASSIFIED                                                 20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                                   WORKING PAPERS

           Governance - Developments
D     • The United Nations is assisting the Iraqi Interim Government (IIG) in
E       preparation for national elections by Jan 05
P        – The Chief Electoral Officer and Commissioners of the Independent
A          Electoral Commission of Iraq (IEC) recently completed a two week
R          intensive training program in Mexico City
T           • Program covered standards and principles of credible elections,
M             dispute resolution, political party and voter registration, voter
E             education campaigns, and procedures for polling and counting
N             results
T
      • USAID awarded a $50 million cooperative agreement to three US non-
O       governmental organizations to support civil society involvement in the
F       national elections, includes:
         – Educating voters on broad issues of democracy, participation, and
D          elections
E        – Building capacity within local civil society organizations to monitor
F          the electoral process and field domestic election observers
E
N     • Prime Minister Allawi is visiting leaders of several Arab countries this
S       week, possible areas of discussions include: potential Iraqi
E       membership in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and security
N/P
        assistance                                                         UNCLASSIFIED
                                            3
      UNCLASSIFIED                                     20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                            WORKING PAPERS

           Governance - Developments (Cont.)
D • United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan named Pakistan's
E   current Ambassador to the United States, Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, as
P
    his Special Representative for Iraq
A
R • USAID has been continuing its Democracy Dialogue Activities (DDA)
T   and more than 14,000 program activities have been held in
M   communities across Iraq
E
N    – Has stimulated civic participation and increased Iraqi
T      understanding of democratic principles and the political process
O
F

D
E
F
E
N
S
E
N/P                                                            UNCLASSIFIED
                                   4
      UNCLASSIFIED                                                     20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                                     WORKING PAPERS

             Governance - National Transition
D 2004                                                                             Phase I
                01 Jun
                           Iraqi Interim Government (IIG) Announced and
E                                                                                 (Interim
                           Governing Council dissolved                        Government)
P
A               04 Jun     Election Commission established
R
T               28 Jun     Transfer sovereignty from CPA to IIG
M                          National Conference convenes and selects Interim
E                    Jul
                           National Council
N
T                Oct       Iraqi Census to develop election rolls

      2005      31 Jan     Elections for the National Assembly complete: NLT 31 Jan 05
O
F
                                                                                   Phase II
               Early 05    Iraqi Transitional Government takes power   (Elected Government)
D
E               15 Aug     National Assembly completes draft of permanent constitution
F
                15 Oct     Referendum for permanent constitution
E
N               15 Dec     Elections for government completed
S
E               31 Dec     Elected government assumes office
N/P                                            5                                UNCLASSIFIED
      UNCLASSIFIED                                          20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                               WORKING PAPERS

            Essential Services - Water and Sanitation
D     • Rehabilitation of a water treatment plant in a poor area of Baghdad
E       is complete benefiting nearly 1 million residents
P
         – The plant was operating at 55-60 percent capacity before the
A
           rehabilitation
R
T     • Completion of work on a number of treatment plants and systems in
M       the second half of 04 is expected to substantially increase access to
E       potable water:
N
T
         – Baghdad’s Shark Dijlah plant will benefit 750,000 people
         – Ad Diwaniyah plant will benefit more than 80,000 people
O
         – An Najaf plant will benefit 560,000 people
F
         – Ninawa’ Governorate plants will benefit 50,000 people
D
         – Fallujah plant will benefit more than 200,000 people
E
F     • Japan will send $3.7 million in aid to the al-Muthanna province in
E       southern Iraq province to buy 26 water trucks, 304 water tanks for
N       trucks and hundreds of water tanks
S
         – The grants are part of the $1.5 billion Tokyo has pledged for
E
           postwar Iraqi reconstruction this year
N/P                                    6                            UNCLASSIFIED
      UNCLASSIFIED                                                           20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                                      WORKING PAPERS

          Essential Services - Telecommunications
D      • Total number of telephone subscribers in Iraq is now over
E        1,318,000 (including 524,000 cell phone subscribers) - 58.3 %
P        above pre-war levels
A
R                             Telephone Subscribers (Fixed and Cell)
T
M              1,400,000
               1,200,000
E              1,000,000
                 800,000                                                    Cell Phones
N                600,000                                                    Fixed Phones
T                400,000
                 200,000
                       0
O
                                03




                                04
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                                                                  (As of
                       (P




                                                                  08 Jul)
                   03




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E
F
E      • As of 04 Jul, there were 70,000 internet subscribers in Baghdad
N         – Pre-war, there was limited service, with 3,000 Internet and 8,000
S           e-mail only accounts in ‘02
E
N/P                                              7                                         UNCLASSIFIED
      UNCLASSIFIED                                           20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                                WORKING PAPERS

           Essential Services - Food Security
D      • Security has improved on major trucking routes and trucks have
E        continued transporting grain from Umm Qasr port to storage
P        facilities throughout the country
A
R      • Buffer food stocks are at approximately one month and building,
T        with the goal of a three-month buffer stock by the end of summer
M         – The Ministry of Trade (MOTR) has contracts with two Iraqi firms
E
            and a Turkish firm to supply 200,000 metric tons of flour in Jul
N
T           and Aug
          – Harvest of national wheat through the end of Jul will ensure
O           that there is an additional two months supply of wheat
F
          – MOTR’s second set of food procurement tenders have been
D           issued and bids are due shortly, which will further augment
E           nationwide stocks for the rest of the year
F
E
       • The food pipeline is dependent upon World Food Program (WFP)
N        procurement until Sep 04 and MOTR procurement thereafter
S         – Jun was the last month in which Oil For Food (OFF)
E           commodities arrived in significant quantities
N/P                                     8                            UNCLASSIFIED
      UNCLASSIFIED                                              20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                                  WORKING PAPERS

            Essential Services - Health Care
D     • Over 5 million children between the ages of six and 12 have been
E       immunized for Measles, Mumps, and Rubella
P     • Over 3 million children under five years of age have been vaccinated
A       since Jun 03
R
T     • Shortages in critical pharmaceuticals continue due to factors including
M       supply chain problems and corruption. As part of the response:
E        – Deliveries from the Ministry of Health’s (MoH’s) second emergency
N
           drug purchase are expected to commence very soon
T
         – The MoH has appealed for international assistance
O        – The MoH Inspector General has recommended the implementation of
F          an improved inventory system
D     • Supplemental funds are targeting construction of primary health care
E       clinics in every governorate and rehabilitation of 16 pediatric / maternal
F       hospitals
E
         – 240 Iraqi hospitals and over 1,200 preventive health clinics are
N
           operating
S
E
N/P                                       9                              UNCLASSIFIED
      UNCLASSIFIED                                           20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                                WORKING PAPERS

             Essential Services - Education
D      • On 15 Jul, USAID announced the award of a $56.4 million contract
E        that will provide technical assistance to the Iraq Ministry of
P        Education (MOE), includes:
A
R        – Institutional capacity building of the MOE
T        – Creation of model schools in each of the 81 sub-districts
M
E        – Training of primary and secondary school teachers
N        – Procurement of supplies and equipment for schools
T
         – Promotes community participation in early childhood education
O • With support from USAID, Iraqi government agencies are
F
    conducting various vocational training programs to help alleviate
D
    unemployment and supply appropriately skilled workers
E • Over 32,000 secondary school teachers and 3,000 supervisors have
F   been trained as part of effort to upgrade the quality of education
E
N      • Nearly 2,500 schools have been rehabilitated to date and an
S        additional 1,200 are expected to be complete by the end of the year
E
N/P                                                                    UNCLASSIFIED
      UNCLASSIFIED                                          20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                                WORKING PAPERS

          Project and Contracting Office (PCO) Developments
D     • Number of Iraqis employed on projects funded by the supplemental
E       and and Accelerated Iraq Reconstruction Program (AIRP) is now
P       over 31,000
A     • Both the number of projects underway and number of Iraqis
R
T
        employed will jump significantly over the next few months
M     • The PCO has issued 165 task orders, out of a total of 250 (69%)
E
N        – These task orders cover 1,566 projects nationwide, out of a total
T          2,300 (68%)
      • The AIRP continues to gain momentum nationwide to meet urgent
O       local needs
F
         – Projects cover: water and sanitation, health, education,
D          building, roads, power and telecommunications
E
F
         – Over 11,600 Iraqis have been directly employed on AIRP projects
E        – Approximately 2,500 Iraqis employed on Sadr City landfill &
N          sewer projects
S
E        – Stimulates local economy and provides opportunities for local
N/P
           businesses                                            UNCLASSIFIED
                                        11
      UNCLASSIFIED                                                                               20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                                                  WORKING PAPERS

               Project and Contracting Office (PCO)
D                                                         2207      Apportioned    Committed      Obligated    Expenditure
                             Sector                      Report         $M            $M             $M            $M
E
P      Security and Law Enforcement                       3,235          2,976         2,396         1,593              248
A      Electricity Sector                                 5,465          2,538         2,414         1,739              126
R      Oil Infrastructure                                 1,701          1,701         1,649           955              16
T      Justice, Public Safety, and Civil Society (less
M      Democracy)                                         1,033              825           590         302              17
E      Democracy                                              451            451           420         270              10
N      Education, Refugees, Human Rights, Governance          259            259           238            99             9
T      Roads, Bridges, and Construction                       368            270           246         123               0
       Health Care                                            786            512           484         334               0
O      Transportation and Telecommunications                  500            467           368            74             4
F
       Water Resources and Sanitation                     4,247              816           826         451               0
       Private Sector Development                             183            136           100            47            16
D
       Admin Expense (USAID, CPA Successor)                   213            29            29             29            12
E
       TOTAL                                             18,439         10,980         9,760         6016               458
F
E      CONSTRUCTION                                      12,406          5,740         5,560         3,850
N      NON-CONSTRUCTION                                   5,582          4,789         3,780         1,896
S      DEMOCRACY                                              451            451           420         270
E      Total                                             18,439         10,980         9,760         6,016              458
N/P   Data as of 13 Jul                                  12                                                    UNCLASSIFIED
      UNCLASSIFIED                                             20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                                 WORKING PAPERS

          Economy
D     • On 28 Jun, estimated crude oil export revenue was around $8.1
E       billion for 04 (latest data available)
P
A
      • The Consumer Price Index for May in Iraq declined by 1.2 percent
R       relative to its Apr level
T     • The New Iraqi Dinar was at 1,460 dinars per dollar on 8 Jul, and has
M       been stable for nearly five months
E
N     • Iraq's Finance Ministry auctioned 150 billion dinars ($103 million) of
T       treasury bills on 18 Jul
         – This is the first step in re-establishing a local bond market and will
O
F          allow free-market forces to set interest rates
         – Will be used to repay debt issued by Saddam Hussein's regime
D
E        – Future auctions are expected to take place every few weeks
F        – A result of the capacity building efforts at the Central Bank of Iraq
E          by Coalition advisors
N
S
E
N/P                                      13                             UNCLASSIFIED
      UNCLASSIFIED                                           20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                                WORKING PAPERS

          Economy (Cont.)
D • Nearly 3,000 micro-credit loans were made to Iraqi businesses
E   totaling over $6M
P    – Provides credit to financially viable micro and small businesses
A
R • USAID is assisting the Iraqi Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs
T   (MOLSA) to develop a vocational training program that will help the
M   Iraqi government address Iraq’s high unemployment rate
E    – Will help improve the skills of Iraq’s workforce through vocational
N      and technical training centers and employment centers
T
      • Minister of Industry and Minerals is exploring leasing or renting
O       State-owned factories for several years, as well as profit-sharing
F       deals
         – Would secure needed funding for the factories while avoiding
D          privatization until an elected government is in place
E
F     • USAID recently completed training for Iraq’s Ministry of Finance staff
E       on the new Financial Management Information System (FMIS)
N        – FMIS will be implemented at 28 Ministries and four government
S          agencies allowing more accurate and transparent accounting and
E          reporting
N/P                                     14                            UNCLASSIFIED
      UNCLASSIFIED                                                                                                  20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                                                        WORKING PAPERS

           Iraqi Budgeted Spending for 04
D      • The following chart shows budgeted Iraqi spending for 04, from all
E        revenue sources:
P                                                                                                                   New OFF
                                                                  Revised Iraqi Budget, March 2004                   Deposits     2004
A               Ministry funding in millions of US$     Salaries Other Operating Capital Projects Other    Total       Total     Budgeted
                                                       (inc. FPS)   Expenses                                                       Total
R
T           Finance (with selected major payments)*
             Public Distribution System
                                                              17         12,938
                                                                            2,400
                                                                                            184     814    13,953
                                                                                                            2,400
                                                                                                                         1,580
                                                                                                                          200
                                                                                                                                   15,533
                                                                                                                                    2,600
M            Fuel Imports                                                   2,100                           2,100           0       2,100
             Transfer Payments                                              1,671                           1,671           0       1,671
E            Foreign Obligations (e.g., reparations)                        1,432                           1,432           0       1,432
             Local/Regional Grants                                            831                             831           0         831
N            Salaries and Retirement Awards                                   797                             797           0         797
             SOE Restructuring and Salary Support                             761                             761          50         811
T            Regional Development                                             600                             600         277         877
             Nation Building projects                                         571                             571           0         571
             Additional Security Projects                                     500                             500         500       1,000
O            Rapid Regional Response Program
             CERP
                                                                              225
                                                                               70
                                                                                                              225
                                                                                                               70
                                                                                                                            0
                                                                                                                          123
                                                                                                                                      225
                                                                                                                                      193
F            All other                                                        981                             981         430       1,411
            Electricity                                        8            210             900     -       1,118          315      1,433
            Health                                           230            750              50     -       1,030            0      1,030
D           Education                                        682            103             170     -         955            0        955
            Transport                                          7             82             212     -         301            0        301
E           Housing                                           37             17             233     -         287            0        287
F           Oil
            Public Works
                                                               5
                                                              15
                                                                             56
                                                                             21
                                                                                            200
                                                                                            166
                                                                                                    -
                                                                                                    -
                                                                                                              261
                                                                                                              202
                                                                                                                           460
                                                                                                                             0
                                                                                                                                      721
                                                                                                                                      202
E           Water Resources                                   19              7             128     -         155            0        155
            Interior                                         367            108              10     -         485            0        485
N           Justice                                           42             67              42     -         151            0        151
S           Defense                                           77             24               0     -         101            0        101
            Other Agencies                                   265            425             237     -         927          130      1,057
E           TOTAL                                          1,773         14,809           2,532      814   19,926        2,485     22,411

N/P                                                                    15                                                          UNCLASSIFIED
     UNCLASSIFIED                                         20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                              WORKING PAPERS

            Electricity Overview
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T

O
F     • Due to unforeseen problems, achievement of the Jun goal has
D
        slipped until at least Jul
E     • Spring maintenance program continues resulting in about 478 MW
F       of generation capacity currently offline for scheduled and 502 MW
E       for unscheduled maintenance
N
S
E
N/P Data as of 15 Jul                 16                          UNCLASSIFIED
         UNCLASSIFIED                                                                      20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                                          WORKING PAPERS

                     Power Production
D                                          Generation By Region
E                              North   South   Central    Of f Grid Gen   Syria   Turkey

P             6000

A
              5000
R
T             4000
    MW Peak




M             3000

E
              2000
N
T             1000


                0

O
                     10


                     10 003


                     10 003

                     11 00


                     11 003


                     12 003


                     12 003

                     01 00


                     01 004


                     02 004


                     02 004


                     03 004

                     03 00


                     03 004


                     04 004


                     04 004

                     05 00


                     05 004


                     06 004


                     06 004


                     07 004
                        /0


                        /1


                        /2

                        /1


                        /2


                        /1


                        /2

                        /0


                        /2


                        /0


                        /1


                        /0

                        /1


                        /3


                        /1


                        /2

                        /1


                        /2


                        /0


                        /2


                        /0
                          1/


                          5/


                          9/

                          2/


                          6/


                          0/


                          4/

                          7/


                          1/


                          4/


                          8/


                          3/

                          7/


                          1/


                          4/


                          8/

                          2/


                          6/


                          9/


                          3/


                          7/
                            2


                            2


                            2

                            2


                            2


                            2


                            2

                            2


                            2


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F




                              04
                               3




                               3




                               4




                               4
D             • New Record: 13 Jul reached Peak Generation of 5,063 MW or
E               109,177 MWH
F
E
N
S
E
N/P Data as of 15 Jul                                    17                                        UNCLASSIFIED
     UNCLASSIFIED                             20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                             WORKING PAPERS

            Hours of Power
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T

O
F

D
E
F
E
N
S
E
N/P Data as of 15 Jul              18                 UNCLASSIFIED
      UNCLASSIFIED                                                                                                                       20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                                                                                  WORKING PAPERS

                                            Crude Oil Production
                                     3.00
D
                                                                                                    MOO Goal: 2.5 MBPD
E
                                     2.50
P
A
R                                    2.00
       Millions of Barrels Per Day




T
M
                                     1.50
E
N
T                                    1.00



O                                    0.50
F

D                                    0.00
                                             21-27 May   28 May - 3 June   4-10 June   11-17 June        18-24 June   25 June - 1 July   2-8 July   9-15 July
E
                                                                                            Production      Target
F
E
      • Weekly Average of 2.041 MBPD Is Below Target of 2.5 MBPD
N     • Long Term Ministry of Oil (MOO) Target (Dec 04): 2.8 - 3.0 MBPD (Pre-War
S       Capacity)
E     • Pre-War Peak: 2.5 MBPD in Mar 03
N/P   • Post-War Peak: 2.595 MBPD on 16 19 04
                                          Apr                            UNCLASSIFIED
      UNCLASSIFIED
                                                                                   WORKING PAPERS                                                 20 0510 EDT Jul 04

                                            Monthly Export: Volume & Revenue
D                                                                                        Revenue ($B)            Iraqi Export (MBPD)
E
P
A
                                    2.000                                                                                                                                  $2.00
R                                                                                                                                      1.825    1.804

T                                   1.800                                                                                                                                  $1.80


M                                   1.600                                                   1.524       1.541      1.537                                                   $1.60

E                                   1.400
                                                                                                                              1.382                      1.380
                                                                                                                                                                           $1.40
      Millions of Barrels Per Day




                                                                                                                                                                  1.275
N




                                                                                                                                                                                   Revenue ($Billions)
                                                                                1.149
                                    1.200                                                                                                                                  $1.20
T                                                                      0.983
                                    1.000                                                                                                                                  $1.00


O                                   0.800
                                                              0.646
                                                                                                                                       $1.61
                                                                                                                                                $1.50
                                                                                                                                                                           $0.80

F                                   0.600                                                   $1.21       $1.26      $1.26
                                                                                                                                                         $1.36
                                                                                                                                                                  $1.28
                                                                                                                                                                           $0.60
                                                                                                                             $1.10

                                                     0.322                      $0.89
                                    0.400                                                                                                                                  $0.40
D                                           0.200
                                                                       $0.73

                                                              $0.44
E                                   0.200
                                            $0.20
                                                     $0.36                                                                                                                 $0.20


F                                   0.000                                                                                                                                  $0.00
                                            Jun-03   Jul-03   Aug-03   Sep-03   Oct-03      Nov-03      Dec-03    Jan-04     Feb-04    Mar-04   Apr-04   May-04   Jun-04
E
N
                     • Current Monthly Average: No data for Jul
S
E                    • No new data since 27 Jun (exports) and 28 Jun (revenue)
N/P                                                                                                     20                                                        UNCLASSIFIED
      UNCLASSIFIED                                                                                                                       20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                                                                              WORKING PAPERS

                                          Diesel Production & Imports
D                                                                             Production        Import       Target   Stocks

E                                  25.0                                                                                                                      20

P
                                                                                                                                                             18
A
R                                  20.0                                                                                                                      16


T                                                                                                                                                            14




                                                                                                                                                                    Days of Stocks (National)
      Millions of Liters Per Day




M
                                   15.0                                                                                                                      12
E                                                                                                         Ministry of Oil (MOO)
N                                                                                                          Goal: 18.0 M Liters                               10


T                                  10.0                                                                                                                      8


                                                                                                                                                             6
O
                                    5.0                                                                                                                      4
F
                                                                                                                                                             2

D                                   0.0                                                                                                                      0
E                                   21-27 May   28 May - 3 June   4-10 June        11-17 June            18-24 June   25 June - 1 July    2-8 July      9-15 July

F
E
N                                  • This week’s average production and imports are 95% of goal
S                                  • National diesel stock is 19 days
E
N/P                                                                                         21                                                       UNCLASSIFIED
      UNCLASSIFIED                                                                                                                    20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                                                                               WORKING PAPERS

                                          Kerosene Production & Imports
D                                                                             Production     Import      Target    Stocks
E
                                    6.0                                                                                                                   40
P
A                                                                                                                                                         35
                                    5.0
R
T                                                                                                                                                         30
      Millions of Liters Per Day




M




                                                                                                                                                                 Days of Stock (National)
                                    4.0
                                                                                                                                                          25
E                                                                                                            Ministry of Oil (MOO)
N                                   3.0                                                                       Goal: 5.0 M Liters                          20

T
                                                                                                                                                          15
                                    2.0
O
                                                                                                                                                          10
F
                                    1.0
                                                                                                                                                          5

D
E                                   0.0                                                                                                                   0
                                    21-27 May   28 May - 3 June   4-10 June          11-17 June       18-24 June   25 June - 1 July    2-8 July      9-15 July
F
E
N                                  • This week’s average production and imports are 93% of goal
S                                  • National kerosene stock is 34 days
E
N/P                                                                                           22                                                  UNCLASSIFIED
      UNCLASSIFIED                                                                                                                20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                                                                              WORKING PAPERS

                                       Gasoline / Benzene Production & Imports
D                                                                         Production     Import      Target    Stocks

E                                   30.0                                                                                                             25

P
A                                                                                                     Ministry of Oil (MOO) Goal:
R
                                    25.0                                                                     22.0 M Liters                           20

T
      Millions of Liters Per Day




M                                   20.0




                                                                                                                                                          Days of Stock (National)
                                                                                                                                                     15
E
N                                   15.0
T
                                                                                                                                                     10

                                    10.0
O
F                                                                                                                                                    5
                                     5.0

D
E                                   0.0                                                                                                              0

F                                   21-27 May   28 May - 3 June   4-10 June      11-17 June       18-24 June   25 June - 1 July    2-8 July     9-15 July

E
N                                  • This week’s average production and imports are 84% of goal
S                                  • National benzene stock is 14 days
E
N/P                                                                                      23                                                   UNCLASSIFIED
      UNCLASSIFIED                                                                                                       20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                                                                WORKING PAPERS

                            Liquefied Petroleum Gas Production & Imports
D                                                               Production    Import     Target     Stocks

E                    5000                                                                                                                    50
P                                                                                                    Ministry of Oil (MOO)
A                    4500                                                                             Goal: 4,000 Tons                       45


R                    4000                                                                                                                    40

T
                     3500                                                                                                                    35
M




                                                                                                                                                    Days of Stock (National)
E                    3000                                                                                                                    30
      Tons Per Day




N                    2500                                                                                                                    25

T
                     2000                                                                                                                    20


O                    1500                                                                                                                    15

F                    1000                                                                                                                    10


                      500                                                                                                                    5
D
E                       0                                                                                                                    0
                      21-27 May   28 May - 3 June   4-10 June        11-17 June        18-24 June     25 June - 1 July    2-8 July      9-15 July
F
E
N                    • This week’s average production and imports are 103% of goal
S                    • National LPG stock is 35 days
E
N/P                                                                           24                                                     UNCLASSIFIED
      UNCLASSIFIED
                                                               WORKING PAPERS                                                                                                               20 0510 EDT Jul 04

               Ministry of Interior Man, Train & Equip Status
                                                                      CURRENT STATUS
D
                                                                                                                                                                           EQUIPPING
E
                                      MANNING                  TRAINING                  WEAPONS                                             VEHICLES                                                     COMMS                                      BODY ARMOR
P                                                      NOT       IN
                                  REQ’D               TRN’D               TRN’D       REQ’D                                           REQ’D                                                 REQ’D                                                  REQ’D
A      FORCE    COMPONENT                    O/H                TRNG                                         O/H                                                     O/H                                                 O/H                                                    O/H

                IRAQI POLICE
R               SVC
                                  89,369    88,352    55,262    3,402     29,688      136,054               82,403                     14,895                  5,328                        45,065                      12,724                     89,369                      28,316


T     IRAQI
                CIVIL
                INTERVENTION       4,800        0       0         0         0         11,490                  0                            1,002                           0                10,240                        0                         4,800                        0
      POLICE    FORCE
M
                EMERGENCY
E               RESPONSE
                UNIT
                                   270       156        0        116        40         1,020                 500                            58                             0                 352                          0                         300                         50

N     DEPT OF BORDER
                                  20,420    18,248      0        25       18,223      17,153                4,417                          3,700               1,298                        3,552                       1,292                      12,626                      4,000
      ENFORCEMENT
T
      FACILITIES PROTECTION
                                  73,992    73,992      0         0       73,992      49,500                7,396                          155                             45               1,155                         0                         8,350                        0
      SERVICE

O     TOTAL                       188,851   180,748   55,262    3,543     121,943     215,217               94,716                     19,810                  6,671                        60,364                      14,016                     115,445                     32,366


F
                                                                                                                  TRAINED AND EQUIPPED FORECAST
D        50 % OR LESS OF REQUIREMENT                                                     120%




E        51-84 % OF REQUIREMENT
                                                                                         100%


                                                                                                                                                             ERU
F        85-100 % OF REQUIREMENT
                                                                                          80%



                                                                                                                              DBE
E                                                                                         60%



                                                                                                                                                                                                  IPS
N
                                                                                          40%




                                                                                          20%

S                                                                                                                                            CIF
                                                                                           0%

E
                                                                                                5 JUL '04




                                                                                                                                                 4 OCT '04




                                                                                                                                                                                              3 JAN '05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     6 JUN '05
                                                                                                                  2 AUG '04




                                                                                                                               6 SEP '04




                                                                                                                                                               1 NOV '04




                                                                                                                                                                                6 DEC '04




                                                                                                                                                                                                            7 FEB '05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           7 MAR '05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       4 APR '05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2 MAY '05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   30 MAY'05
N/P                                                                              25                                                                                                                                                    UNCLASSIFIED
      UNCLASSIFIED
                                                           WORKING PAPERS                                                                                                         20 0510 EDT Jul 04

              Ministry of Defense Man, Train & Equip Status
                                                               CURRENT STATUS
D
                                                                                                                                                                 EQUIPPING
E
                                     MANNING                TRAINING                    WEAPONS                                         VEHICLES                                                COMMS                            BODY ARMOR
P                                                             IN
                                                    NOT                                                                               REQ’
A     FORCE       COMPONENT      REQ’D     O/H     TRN’D     TRNG      TRN’D      REQ’D                      O/H                      D                         O/H                REQ’D                      O/H               REQ’D                     O/H

R                 ARMY           27,000   7,909      0       6,073     1,836      18,909                 15,432                       1,980                     1,728              3,596                       0                27,000                   6,137

T                 NATIONAL
                  GUARD
                                 41,088   37,371     0       2,193     35,178     42,576                 36,055                       1,311                     392                6,963                       0                41,088                   8,495

M     ARMY
                  INTERVENTION
                                  6,584   2,741      0       1,361     1,380      8,850                  3,300                        583                       152                1,798                      594               6,584                    2,741
                  FORCE
E                 SPECIAL OPS
                                  1,592    569       0        54        515       1,722                      515                      110                        0                 1,148                       0                1,592                     515
N                 FORCE

T     AIR FORCE                   502      146       0        30        116            383                           0                 34                        4                      21                     0                 502                       0

      COASTAL DEFENSE
                                  409      307       0        120       187            486                           12                30                        62                 156                        1                 409                       0
      FORCE
O     TOTAL                      77,175   49,043     0       9,831     39,212     72,926                 55,314                       4,048                     2,338              13,682                     595               77,175                   17,888
F
                                                                                                         TRAINED AND EQUIPPED FORECAST
D        50 % OR LESS OF REQUIREMENT                                            120%

                                                                                                                                                      IIF
E        51-84 % OF REQUIREMENT
                                                                                100%



                                                                                                                                                    ING
F        85-100 % OF REQUIREMENT
                                                                                80%




E                                                                               60%



                                                                                                                                                                                   ARMY
N
                                                                                40%



                                                                                20%

S
                                                                                 0%

E
                                                                                                                                        4 OCT '04




                                                                                                                                                                                    3 JAN '05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            6 JUN '05
                                                                                             5 JUL '04




                                                                                                                                                                                                                   7 MAR '05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2 MAY '05
                                                                                                         2 AUG '04




                                                                                                                                                    1 NOV '04
                                                                                                                          6 SEP '04




                                                                                                                                                                      6 DEC '04




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 4 APR '05
                                                                                                                                                                                                  7 FEB '05
N/P                                                                    26                                                                                                                                                      UNCLASSIFIED
      UNCLASSIFIED                                               20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                                  WORKING PAPERS

            Security - Developments
D     • Prime Minister Allawi announced the establishment of a new
E       intelligence unit, the General Security Directorate, that will target
P       insurgents
A     • The Iraq Intervention Force (IIF) is being established, trained, and
R       equipped for urban counterinsurgency operations
T
M        – The initial IIF battalion deployed into Baghdad at the end of Jun
E        – All three battalions of the first IIF brigade will be ready by end of
N          Jul
T     • On 08 Jul, 39 of 45 battalions of the Iraqi National Guard (ING) were
        manned above 75 percent strength
O
F        – Currently conducting joint patrols throughout Iraq with Coalition
           and Iraqi Police forces
D        – Focus on equipping, training, and reconstituting the force
E     • A new pilot program to increase police effectiveness started in
F       Baghdad by a team of police advisors consisting of Iraqi police and
E       military personnel
N
S        – Will focus on longer-term strategies to increase effectiveness
E          ranging from personnel, mission and tasks, equipment and
N/P
           community relations                                          UNCLASSIFIED
                                          27
      UNCLASSIFIED                                        20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                              WORKING PAPERS

            Security - Developments (Cont.)
D     • A total of 5,502 new IPS recruits completed academy training
E
         – Five classes (over 3,411 students) graduated from the Jordan
P
A
           Academy
R        – Four classes (2,091 students) graduated from the Baghdad
T          Public Safety Academy
M
E
      • Approximately 25,000 IPS personnel who served as police under
N       the former regime completed a three-week Transition and
T       Integration Program taught by Coalition
      • Coalition advisors are providing professional development training
O       for IPS officers. The number of IPS graduates from these courses:
F
         – Basic Criminal Investigation       130 (target 1,200)
D        – Criminal Intelligence Course         64 (target 120)
E
F        – Emergency Response                   40
E        – Dignitary Protection               109
N
S
         – Mid-level Management                 42 (target 300)
E        – Executive Leadership Course          53 (target 300)
N/P                                   28                          UNCLASSIFIED
      UNCLASSIFIED                                                                     20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                                                   WORKING PAPERS

                         Security - Developments (Cont.)
D     • Chart below shows significant insurgent activities in Iraq to 26 Jun
E       (update should be available next week)
P        – Includes attacks using improvised explosive devices (IED),
A          vehicle-borne IED, mortars, rocket propelled grenades (RPG),
R          and improvised rockets
T
M                                                   Significant Acts
                         70
E                                                                        Fallujah
N                        60       Operation Iron
                                    Hammer
                                                                       and al-Sadr
                                                                        Sedition
T                        50
                                   Announced
         Total SIGACTS




O                        40
                                                        Anniversary
F                                                        of Invasion
                         30

D                        20
E                                                                                      Interim
                         10
F                                                                                    Government
                                                                                     Announced
E                        0
N
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E                                                            Date

N/P                                                         29                                    UNCLASSIFIED
    UNCLASSIFIED                                                  20 0510 EDT Jul 04
                                  WORKING PAPERS

          Stability Contributors - OIF
D          Countries with forces in Iraq        Countries considering decision
E
P                                               to provide forces for Iraq
                 30         TOTAL ~23K
A
                                                       4         TOTAL TBD
R          Albania          Lithuania
T          Australia        Macedonia
M          Azerbaijan       Mongolia
E          Bulgaria         Netherlands
N          Czech Rep        New Zealand
T          Denmark          Norway
           El Salvador      Poland
                                                       34 Countries
O                                                      Potentially Supporting
           Estonia          Portugal
F                                                        Iraqi Stability and
           Georgia          Romania                     Humanitarian Relief
           Hungary          Singapore
D
           Italy            Slovakia
E
F          Japan            Thailand
E          Kazakhstan       Tonga
N          Korea            Ukraine
S          Latvia           UK
E
P    Data as of 16 Jul 04                  30                             UNCLASSIFIED