Afghanistan Food Security Bulletin - PDF - PDF by sfx15166

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									                                                    Afghanistan Food Security Bulletin
                                                         December 2005 - February 2006


            Highlights:
•   Northern Afghanistan is expected         Early Assessment of 2006 Agricultural Season
    to have sufficient irrigation water
    available for the winter wheat           Satellite imagery reveals that winter wheat production for northern
    season                                   Afghanistan is expected to be average to above-average except for
                                             some isolated parts of northern Mazar Province.          Winter wheat
•    South        and       southwestern     production in south and southwestern Afghanistan could fail as there
    Afghanistan are not expected to
                                             has not been sufficient rainfall for crop development over the last three
    have sufficient irrigation water for
    wheat cultivation which could result     months.
    in crop failure
                                                 Figure 1: Extended Water Requirement Satisfaction Index
•   January 2006 wheat prices were
    slightly higher in comparison to
    October 2005 prices in Kabul,
    Kandahar,     Jalalabad,  Mazar,
    Mainmana, and Faizabad

•   With the exception of Mazar and
    Maimana,    wage    rates  have
    remained stable

•   The two most common livestock
    diseases, Foot and Mouth Disease
    (FMD) and Peste Des Petites
    Ruminants (PPR), are most prevalent
    during the upcoming warm weather
    months

                                                 Source: FEWS NET/USGS
•   Afghanistan is on alert status for
    Avian Influenza                          The irrigation anomaly imagery indicates that northern basins are likely
                                             to have enough irrigation water for the entire wheat season while the
•   Although there is no reliable data
                                             southern basins (basins flowing south, west, and east) like Helmand are
    on    HIV/AIDS    prevalence        in
    Afghanistan, there are several risk
                                             likely to have below-average irrigation water available for wheat.
    factors which could play a role in its   Ground observations have further confirmed the remotely sensed data.
    transmission
                                                 Figure 2: Irrigation Supply/Demand for Wheat




                                                 Source: FEWS NET/USGS
Market Prices

January 2006 wheat prices have slightly increased in comparison to October 2005 prices in Kabul, Kandahar,
Hirat, Mazar, Fiazabad, and Maimana markets. The increase in wheat prices in these provinces is likely to be
the result of the winter slow down in the movement of commodities. In contrast, Bamyan market shows a slight
decrease in wheat prices, which is likely to be the result of a reduction in the demand for wheat as households
in Bamyan are consuming from their own stocks due heavy snow and inaccessibility to markets.

Wage rates for January 2006 compared to October 2005 remained stable in Kabul, Kandahar, Jalaabld, Hirat,
and Faizabad. However, Mazar and Maimana experienced a slight decrease in wage rates. This is likely due
to the reduction of construction activities over the winter months which is a major employment generator in
these areas. Bamyan experienced a modest increase in wage rates.

In comparison to October 2005, diesel prices in January 2006 experienced a slight increase in all eight locations
(Kabul, Kandahar, Jalalabad, Hirat, Mazar, Faizabad, Bamyan, and Maimana). This increase is likely related to a
slow down in shipments along the supply chain in Afghanistan due to winter conditions rather than an increase
in world diesel prices as was the case in October 2005.


                      October-05                     November-05                      December-05                     January-06
                                                                                                                                    Labor
                                    Labor                            Labor                            Labor      Wheat/   Diesel/   Wage/d
  Locations   Wheat/Kg   Diesel/L   Wage/day   Wheat/Kg   Diesel/L   Wage/day   Wheat/Kg   Diesel/L   Wage/day    Kg         L      ay
  Kabul           12.6      32.0      179.0       12.7      35.0       180.0       12.4      37.0       185.0     12.8     38.0     180.0
  Kandahar        10.9      30.0      150.0       10.7      33.0       150.0       11.4      35.0       150.0     11.8     33.0     155.0
  Nangarhar       10.0      32.3      126.6       10.0      33.8       126.7       10.0      37.2       126.7     10.3     34.0     126.7
  Hirat           10.9      28.0      170.0       11.0      30.0       170.0       10.8      32.0       170.0     10.5     32.0     158.0
  Mazar            9.8      31.0      160.0       10.1      34.0       138.0       10.2      36.0       138.0     10.1     37.0     125.0
  Faizabad        12.0      37.0      250.0       12.2      38.0       250.0       12.7      48.0       250.0     13.6     41.0     225.0
  Bamyan          11.5      36.5      196.3       11.4      36.4       192.0       10.9      36.3       200.0     11.0     38.8     200.0
  Mainmana        11.6      30.0      233.0       10.8      34.0       200.0       11.6      37.0       200.0     11.6     38.0     238.0
  The average exchange rate for August and October is Afs 49.90 to $1., Source of data WFP/VAM Unit                 (Source of Data: WFP)


Livestock diseases

Livestock plays a vital role in rural Afghan livelihoods and food security. Ten percent of the Afghan population
is nomadic and subsists mainly on livestock. In addition, livestock accounts for a large proportion of rural
household food and income. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry and Food
Livestock and Veterinary Department (MAAHF/LVD), Afghan livestock is at risk of contracting cross-boundary
transmitted diseases because the Government of Afghanistan is unable to control the movement of animals
between Afghanistan and its neighbors, particularly Pakistan. Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and Peste Des
Petites Ruminants (PPR) are the most common and widespread diseases that threaten livestock lives and
productivity in Afghanistan. The vaccine for FMD is expensive and only immunizes an animal for four months.
Because of these factors, neither the government nor NGOs are able to provide full vaccination coverage for
FMD. Without comprehensive vaccination coverage these diseases are more likely to spread, particularly
during the summer months when disease incidences reach their highest levels. Tuberculoses (TB) and Rabies
are two other diseases that are threaten livestock in Afghanistan, although not to the same extent as FMD and
PPR.

According to the MAAHF/LVD, Afghanistan is in alerts status for being at risk of widespread Avian Influenza.
Alert status means that Afghanistan may have already been or will soon be exposed to the virus and should
begin undertaking control measures. Afghanistan is located along a bird migratory route which brings wild bird
from the Middle East and Central Asia. In addition, Afghanistan’s neighbors (in particular China and Iran) have
recorded cases of Avian Influenza although there have been no reported cases in Afghanistan so far.
Nevertheless, information flow is a major problem between Kabul and remote villages in Afghanistan. The
Afghan government is concentrating its efforts on providing awareness to Afghans communities about Avian
Influenza and its associated risks. A task force, comprised of the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry
and Food (MAAHF), the Ministry of Public Health (MPH), the Ministry of Trade, the Ministry of Interior, and
municipalities has been established to monitor the situation. From the technical side, FAO and WHO are
helping the MPH and MAAHF. According to MAAHF/LVD, the Government of Afghanistan has the technical
capacity to diagnosis the virus but cannot differentiate between virus subtypes.

HIV/AIDS

HIV/AIDS has a direct association with food insecurity of households. AIDS impacts the workforce which, in turn,
affects all sides of the food security equation: availability, access, and utilization.

There is little information about the prevalence of HIV/AIDS in Afghanistan; however, the Ministry of Health has
estimated that there are between 1,200 and 1,500 cases nationwide. As of October 2005, the actual number
of known cases was 41 and the first official victims were an Afghan returnee and his children who died of AIDS-
related illnesses in November 2004. Furthermore, there are several risks and vulnerabilities which could play a
role in the transmission of HIV/AIDS in Afghanistan. These include: refugee returnees and out migration, high
levels of Illiteracy, competing health priorities and a lack of health facilities, injection drug use, and prostitution.
Although additional information and data are needed to develop a coherent plan of action, the Government
of Afghanistan has established a national HIV/AIDS/STI-control department, developed a five-year strategic
plan (2003-2007), and developed an annual plan of action. These are important first steps which will help
better inform Afghan decision makers about the actual extent of the problem and provide guidance for
managing the spread of HIV/AIDS in Afghanistan.

The clinical data on other transmitted diseases in Afghanistan suggests that it would be foolish for Afghans to
pretend there is no risk of AIDS in their country -- Hieber- Girardet Spokesman for World Health Organization




 Contact Address:                Fazal Karim Najimi
                                 Email: FKNajimi@chemonics.com , Cell phone: 070 15 60 60
                                 Famine Early Warning System Network Funded by USAID
                                 Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development

								
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