Draft 2009 On-the-Books Emissions Inventory
Adel Alsharafi and Wendy Vit, MDNR March 20, 2006
Area and Point Growth and Control • Area and non-EGU point
– Growth and control factors provided by Alpine Geophysics applied within SMOKE – Control factors account for federal regulations such as Maximum Achievable Control Technology (MACT), New Source Performance Standards (NSPS), standards for locomotives and commercial marine vessels and state/local rules including NOx SIP call for non-EGU boilers and cement kilns
• EGU point based on IPM model run from multiRPO process
Mobile Growth and Control
• Onroad mobile
– EPA default VMT growth factors (~1.7 %/year within St. Louis nonattainment counties) – Emission factors from MOBILE6 -- accounts for federal Tier 2 rule and heavy-duty diesel engine standards and state/local regs such as I/M program
• Offroad mobile
– NONROAD2004 model output provided by Midwest RPO -- accounts for federal regulations such as Tier 4 offroad diesel rule
MO and IL Statewide 2002 - 2009 NOx Summary
S ta te of Missouri S ource T ype a nd On-the -Books Control Point Sources EGU/CAIR MACT NOx SIP Call Cement Kilns No controls applied P oint T ota ls Area Sources NSPS - Res. Wood Combustion No controls applied Are a T ota ls Offroad Mobile Sources NONROAD model Federal Locomotive Standards Federal CMV Standards No controls applied Offroa d T ota ls Onroa d Mobile T ota ls* S ta te wide N Ox T ota ls S ta te of Illinois 2002 2009 2002 2009 N Ox N Ox P e rce nt N Ox N Ox P e rce nt tons/ da y tons/ da y Cha nge tonsda y tons/ da y Cha nge 387.4 -45.4 68.0 500.8 0.2 75.0 75.1 183.9 83.0 32.7 7.1 306.7 625.7 1,508.3 246.8 -40.3 76.2 363.2 0.1 81.7 81.9 163.0 42.5 32.7 9.3 247.5 361.4 1,053.9 36.3 -11.4 (12.0) 27.5 8.3 (9.0) (9.0) 11.3 48.9 0.1 (31.3) 19.3 42.2 30.1 991.9 210.8 17.0 282.1 1,501.8 0.1 60.5 60.6 304.6 208.7 50.8 2.4 566.5 767.0 2,895.9 197.8 207.9 15.6 302.9 724.1 0.1 68.6 68.7 276.4 138.0 48.5 2.5 465.4 465.8 1,724.0 80.1 1.4 8.3 (7.4) 51.8 1.0 (13.4) (13.4) 9.3 33.9 4.5 (5.5) 17.8 39.3 40.5
* Onroad mobile emissions are based on average weekday emissions from June 10-24 episode.
St. Louis Ozone Nonattainment Area 2002-2009 NOx Summary
MO Countie s* S ource T ype a nd On-the -Books Control Point Sources EGU/CAIR MACT NOx SIP Call: Cement Kilns No Controls Applied P oint T ota ls Area Sources No Controls Applied Are a T ota ls Offroad Mobile Sources NONROAD model Federal CMV Standards Federal Locomotive Standards No controls applied Offroa d Mobile T ota ls Onroa d Mobile T ota ls** T ota ls 2002 2009 N Ox N Ox P e rce nt tons/ da y tons/ da y Cha nge 102.8 4.3 15.8 3.9 126.8 19.1 19.1 35.1 12.0 8.5 4.7 60.2 184.6 390.7 90.5 4.0 12.6 4.7 111.8 20.1 20.1 32.9 12.0 4.8 6.1 55.8 99.8 287.5 12.0 7.2 20.0 (20.2) 11.8 (5.2) (5.2) 6.1 (0.1) 43.5 (31.3) 7.3 45.9 26.4 S T L N ona tta inme nt Are a T ota l 2002 2009 2002 2009 N Ox N Ox P e rce nt N Ox N Ox P e rce nt tons/ da y tons/ da y Cha nge tons/ da y tons/ da y Cha nge 18.2 --47.6 65.8 2.3 2.3 9.7 9.4 14.7 -33.8 53.5 155.5 -28.7 28.4 120.3 --50.0 60.6 2.6 2.6 8.5 9.0 11.2 10.6 42.0 --(5.1) 7.9 (13.8) (13.7) 13.0 4.3 23.8 -15.3 46.9 22.6 121.0 4.3 15.8 51.5 192.6 21.4 21.4 44.8 21.4 23.2 4.7 94.0 238.1 546.1 101.1 4.0 12.6 54.7 172.4 22.7 22.7 41.4 21.0 16.0 6.1 84.5 128.2 407.8 16.5 7.2 20.0 (6.3) 10.5 (6.1) (6.1) 7.6 1.8 31.0 (31.3) 10.1 46.2 25.3 IL Countie s*
* MO counties are Franklin, Jefferson, St. Charles, St. Louis, and City of St. Louis; IL counties are Jersey, Madison, Monroe, St. Clair. ** Onroad mobile emissions are based on average weekday emissions from June 10-24 episode.
MO and IL Statewide 2002 - 2009 VOC Summary
S ta te of Missouri S ource T ype a nd On-the -Books Control Point Sources MACT No controls applied P oint T ota ls Area Sources MACT St. Louis SIP: Control of Emissions from VOC Liquid Storage Illinois Portable Fuel Container Rule NSPS - Residential Wood Combustion Kansas City: Control of Petroleum Liquid Storage, Loading and Transfer Stage II Vehicle Refueling No controls applied Are a T ota ls Offroad Mobile Sources NONROAD model No controls applied Offroa d Mobile T ota ls Onroa d Mobile T ota ls* S ta te wide V OC T ota ls S ta te of Illinois 2002 2009 2002 2009 V OC V OC P e rce nt V OC V OC P e rce nt tons/ da y tons/ da y Cha nge tons/ da y tons/ da y Cha nge 35.8 63.3 99.2 47.7 7.5 -3.0 1.2 1.5 229.6 290.4 180.7 7.0 187.7 323.3 900.5 -2.4 0.1 1.1 266.6 302.3 199.6 6.4 206.0 177.7 784.5 24.6 73.8 98.5 31.1 1.0 31.3 (16.6) 0.7 34.8 86.9 -18.9 89.1 27.9 (16.2) (4.1) (10.5) 8.4 (9.8) 45.0 12.9 -26.5 1.7 -46.4 392.8 480.4 249.7 10.2 259.9 449.0 1,480.1 -22.9 444.4 495.9 253.7 9.8 263.5 293.7 1,313.3 127.2 163.6 290.8 13.0 -17.6 1.5 79.5 180.7 260.2 9.5 37.5 (10.4) 10.5 26.9 -33.7 12.4 -50.6 (13.1) (3.2) (1.6) 4.2 (1.4) 34.6 11.3
* Onroad mobile emissions are based on average weekday emissions from June 10-24 episode.
St. Louis Ozone Nonattainment Area 2002-2009 VOC Summary
MO Countie s* S ource T ype a nd On-the -Books Control Point Sources MACT No Controls Applied P oint T ota ls Area Sources MACT St. Louis SIP: Control of Emissions from VOC Liquid Storage Illinois Portable Fuel Container Rule NSPS - Residential Wood Combustion Stage II Vehicle Refueling No controls applied Are a T ota ls Offroad Mobile Sources NONROAD model No controls applied Offroa d Mobile T ota ls Onroa d Mobile T ota ls** T ota ls 2002 2009 V OC V OC tons/ da y tons/ da y 10.5 18.5 29.0 10.8 7.5 -0.2 1.3 53.5 73.3 43.3 1.9 45.3 92.3 239.9 -0.1 1.0 62.2 71.8 36.0 2.2 38.2 52.3 191.1 7.5 21.3 28.8 7.5 1.0 S T L N ona tta inme nt Are a T ota l 2002 2009 2002 2009 P e rce nt V OC V OC P e rce nt V OC V OC P e rce nt Cha nge tons/ da y tons/ da y Cha nge tons/ da y tons/ da y Cha nge 28.5 (15.3) 0.6 30.8 86.9 -18.9 24.3 (16.2) 2.1 16.8 (11.8) 15.6 43.3 20.3 -1.3 0.2 2.9 17.0 21.7 7.9 0.8 8.7 27.8 74.1 8.9 7.0 15.9 0.4 -0.8 0.1 1.3 18.7 21.3 9.0 0.8 9.8 22.2 66.2 5.2 7.7 12.9 0.3 41.5 (10.0) 18.8 26.9 -33.7 14.5 53.6 (10.1) 1.8 (14.1) 0.0 (12.8) 20.1 10.6 19.4 25.5 44.9 11.2 7.5 1.3 0.3 4.2 70.5 95.0 51.2 2.7 53.9 120.1 313.9 12.7 29.0 41.7 7.8 1.0 0.8 0.3 2.3 80.9 93.1 45.0 3.0 48.0 74.5 257.3 34.5 (13.8) 7.0 30.6 86.9 33.7 16.8 44.5 (14.7) 2.0 12.1 (8.3) 11.0 38.0 18.0 IL Countie s*
* MO counties are Franklin, Jefferson, St. Charles, St. Louis, and City of St. Louis; IL counties are Jersey, Madison, Monroe, St. Clair. ** Onroad mobile emissions are based on average weekday emissions from June 10-24 episode.
Next Steps
• Continue review and QA of draft 2009 onthe-books inventory
(www.dnr.mo.gov/env/apcp/sipworkgrp/sipgrpmain.htm)
• Incorporate permitted and no-longeroperating facilities • Incorporate 2009 VMT data from EWGCC