5th BIENNIAL INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP
ADVANCES IN ENERGY STUDIES
ADVANCES IN ENERGY STUDIES
PERSPECTIVES ON ENERGY FUTURE
PERSPECTIVES ON ENERGY FUTURE
Porto Venere (SP), Italy 12-16 Sept. 2006
BOOK OF ABSTRACTS
Energy and Environment Research Unit
Department of Chemistry
University of Siena
Via A. Moro – 53100 Siena (Italy)
Life cycle impacts and total costs of present and future photovoltaic systems.
State-of-the art and future outlook of a strategic technology option for a sustainable energy
Are photovoltaic (PV) systems a viable sustainable technological option for the future world energy system both in
economic and ecological terms? The present paper provides a clear response, by addressing the following four main
research questions: i) What is the expected technology development pathway of PV systems? ii) What is the expected
evolution of their direct costs? iii) What are the life cycle impacts and deriving external costs of present and future PV
systems? iv) Which diffusion scenarios can be envisaged?
The paper summarizes the preliminary results achieved in the Integrated Research Project NEEDS - New Energy
Externalities Developments for Sustainability, a research project co-financed by the European Commission (2004-08).
At present the PV market is dominated by crystalline-silicon (c-Si) modules (roughly 90%, including ribbon c-Si). The
paper shows that the life cycle impacts and external costs of present state-of-the art PV systems are already low, in
particular much lower than the ones of fossil energy sources.
Moreover, in the long-term future the PV technology spectrum will be very different from the one of today. By 2040, c-
Si is expected to account just for 20% of the market, while the rest will be equally covered by thin film technologies and
3rd generation devices (i.e ultra-low cost, low-medium efficiency cells and modules, and ultra-high efficiency systems).
All these future systems will have significantly lower direct costs, life cycle impacts and indirect external costs than
present technologies. It is therefore argued that PV systems are a strategic option for a sustainable future world energy
system. Given the present diffusion barriers of PV (i.e. mainly the high direct costs), an appropriate policy framework is
needed today, in order to fully exploit this future potential.
KiteGen: a revolution in wind energy generation
Dipartimento di Automatica e Informatica, Politecnico di Torino
Energy has become an urgent, strategic issue at the global scale. At present, about 80% of world electric energy is
produced from thermal plants making use of nonrenewable sources (oil, gas, coal, nuclear). The economical,
geopolitical and environmental problems related to fossil sources are becoming every day more and more evident.
Nuclear plants have their own problems related to security aspects and radioactive waste management. For these
reasons it is of primary importance for the scientific community to explore and support new renewable energy
technologies, able to provide more efficient solutions than the existing ones to the severe energy shortage of the planet.
Wind turbines are currently the largest source of electric power produced with renewable energy (excluding hydro
power plants). However, they require heavy towers, foundations and huge blades, which make a significant impact on
the environment, require massive investments and long-term amortization periods. All these problems reflect in electric
energy production costs that are not yet competitive, in strict economic sense, with the ones of thermal generators.
Moreover, wind farms have wide problems of social acceptance due their territory occupation, which is unacceptably
higher than for thermal plants of the same power (up to 200-300 times).
The lecture illustrates the project KiteGen conducted in collaboration among Politecnico di Torino, Azienda Energetica
Metropolitana Torino, Sequoia Automation, Modelway and Cesi for designing and constructing a new class of wind
generator, aimed to overcome the above limitations. The key idea is to capture wind energy by means of tethered
airfoils (e.g. power kites used for surfing or sailing), whose flight is suitably controlled by pulling the two lines
holding the kites. The reasons of the expected dramatic improvements over traditional wind mills are that the energy
captured from the wind approximately grows with the cube of wind speed and linearly with the wind intercepted front
area. Assuming that the airfoils can fly up to several hundred meters of altitude, KiteGen can take advantage of the fact
that as altitude on the ground increases, wind is stronger and more constant Moreover, with lines several hundred
meters long, the airfoils can intercept a wind front area much larger than the intercepted area of wind mills, which for
structural limits cannot go beyond the size intercepted by 90 m rotor diameters of big 5 MW towers (at present suitable
only for off-shore installations). At present, a small-scale prototype is under construction at our department. Numerical
simulations performed using an advanced control technique originally developed indicates that it is possible to construct
a KiteGen with power up to 1000 MW with a territory occupation much lower than a wind farm of the same power (by
a factor up to 50-100) and much lower electric energy production costs (by a factor up to 10-20).
Offshore wind parks: a comparative policy analysis for Germany and the UK
C. Nunneri1 and A. Kannen2
FTZ – Westküste, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, D-25761, Büsum, Germany, e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org-
FTZ – Westküste, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, D-25761, Büsum, Germany, e-mail: email@example.com-
The need for renewable energies is driven by different issues at global, international (EU) and national scales. Major
environmental issues are of global interests, such as the need for reducing CO2 emissions leading to climate change and
global warming (Kyoto protocol), the strive towards sustainable use of resources, and minimisation of toxic/dangerous
wastes and emissions. At national and international (EU) scale, besides environmental issues, also issues of economic
and political nature are behind the recent political engagement for renewables, namely independence of third countries
and thereby security of supply and price stability.
In this context, the Directive 2001/77/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council on the promotion of electricity
produced from renewable energy sources in the internal electricity market (RES-E directive), is one of the keystones of
Europe’s renewable energy policy. The EU sees in offshore wind one of the most promising technologies for pushing
renewable energy growth.
The aim of this paper is to compare the policies and instruments leading to offshore wind park (OWP) construction in
the United Kingdom and Germany with respect to their effectiveness.
Germany and the UK are often taken as examples of different policies for supporting the development of renewable
energy. Many authors have compared the renewable situation in the UK and Germany in particular about the
effectiveness of feed-in vs. certificate systems. The efficiency of the German feed-in tariffs has been highlighted in
numerous studies and has been successful in promoting onshore wind development. Yet for the offshore wind sector it
seems not to work. The actual situation for the Offshore wind sector sees the UK in the leading position, with of 213.80
MW of offshore wind installed capacity around the UK coast, while Germany has currently only ‘big plans’. What are
the reasons behind this, and in what aspects does the UK green certificate system offer better conditions for developers?
In this paper we seek to analyse what factors have lead to this development. In particular we start from the policy
targets and the current achievements and move then to the role of different actors, subsidies, technical and legislative
As both countries are discussing about how to improve their support policies and instruments, such a comparison
highlighting pros and cons of the two systems may be a good basis for political discussion.
International Overview on Hydrogen and Fuel Cell research
Project Management Jülich (PtJ)
Research Centre Jülich
D 5245 Jülich, Germany
Increasing environmental problems as a consequence of global climate change and air pollution in congested urban
areas, limited fossil resources and the mounting geopolitical dependence on crude oil are enormous challenges for our
societies. Fossil and renewable energy sources should be converted and used in a more efficient way. According to
energy experts from all over the world, fuel cell and hydrogen energy technologies will play an important role in the
portfolio for a future energy economy. This is particularly true for the transport sector which today is marked by an
extreme dependency on oil. In addition, fuel cells are a key part of the strategy for a sustainable change of energy
systems from central to decentralised energy supply and can be used for portable applications. Hydrogen needs to be
produced cost-effectively and with zero or near-zero CO2 emissions. Fuel cells with their high electrical efficiencies and
clean exhaust energy conversion have the potential to produce excellent solutions to the ecological and economic
problems provided that their development is pursued in a determined way and that their market launch is prepared. The
key arguments for the hydrogen and fuel cell technology are:
- Hydrogen can be produced from various energy resources and can thus contribute to the diversification of
energy supply and ease the dependence on energy imports.
- Hydrogen can be used with near-zero emissions at the point of usage. If produced without or with reduced CO2
emissions, hydrogen contributes to mitigate the effects of global warming.
- Fuel cells are highly efficient in a broad range of applications and can contribute to energy conservation.
- Cost-effective deployment of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies is foreseeable. Assuming successful R&D
efforts, the best estimate is 2010-2015 for stationary applications and 2015-2020 for mobile systems. Early
markets for special applications already exist today and will be growing over the next years.
Based on experiences and results from intensive R&D and demonstration programmes in the last decades, regional,
national, European and international efforts are underway to overcome existing bottlenecks through efforts reaching
from fundamental research to market introduction instruments. The problems still to be solved are manifold: cost
reduction for all components and systems of a hydrogen economy, performance improvements, manufacturing
technologies, infrastructure development, international agreements on codes, standards and regulations, and many more.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy (IPHE) together
with different international initiatives on codes, standards and regulations are fora in which many countries co-operate
to advance hydrogen and fuel cell technologies. At the European level, the Platform for Hydrogen and Fuel Cell
Technologies (HFP), relevant programmes of the European Commission and the creation of a European Research Area
(ERA) contribute to make Europe a competitive player in hydrogen and fuel cell technologies. Regional and national
programmes in many countries all over the globe support researchers from their universities, national laboratories and
the industry to advance the technology to make it marketable. The coordination of all these activities is a difficult task
in itself and a challenge to regional, national and European programme managers. An agreed upon strategy (or
roadmap) and effective communication channels between all those involved in hydrogen and fuel cell technologies are
key elements of a successful development.
Transition to Hydrogen Economy: How Soon and How Fast?
Associate Director for Science and Technology
UNIDO-ICHET, Istanbul, Turkey
Although the transition to a hydrogen economy has undoubtedly already begun, it is still unclear what role hydrogen
will play in the future global or regional energy supply. Critiques of hydrogen or hydrogen economy often come from a
misunderstanding or misconception of hydrogen’s role. Although hydrogen may be produced from fossil fuels,
particularly natural gas, hydrogen as fuel cannot compete in today’s market with the very fuels it is produced from.
Hydrogen production from natural gas only makes sense in a transition period to help commercialize hydrogen
utilization technologies, such as fuel cells. Full benefits of hydrogen as a clean, versatile and efficient fuel may only be
realized if hydrogen is produced from renewable energy sources. While hydrogen from fossil fuels may make sense in a
transition period, ultimately hydrogen should be produced from renewable energy sources. Unfortunately, renewable
energy sources can hardly compete with fossil fuels, probably even if all the externalities of using the fossil fuels (such
as past, present and future environmental damage, political instabilities, including wars) were taken into account.
Renewable energy sources typically require a lot of high quality efforts (economic feedback) which makes them more
expensive than fossil fuels, which were made by millions of years of free nature work. In some instances it is even
questionable whether renewable energy sources contribute any net energy to the main economy. It is for sure that
renewable energy sources could have never provided for the economic growth provided by fossil fuels for the last
century or so, but they can hopefully lead toward a steady state economy. Utilization of renewable energy sources
requires intermediary energy carriers such as electricity and hydrogen.
Production of hydrogen from renewable energy sources in most cases involves electricity as an intermediary step. Both
hydrogen and electricity are energy carries that together may satisfy all the energy needs of modern civilization. They
should not compete with each other, but rather complement each other. With their complementary versatility, they can
help in increasing the acceptance and market penetration of renewable energy technologies. However, market
penetration of renewable energy sources cannot be left to depend solely on market forces. The benefits of a clean and
permanent energy system based on renewable energy sources, and hydrogen and electricity as the energy carriers, are
reaching far beyond the horizon of an ordinary customer. The decision on employing renewable energy sources must be
a conscious one, made on a national and international level, and based on clear but far reaching benefits to the nation
and to the global environment.
The Italian research on hydrogen and fuel cells
Francesco Di Mario – Angelo Moreno
ENEA, TER - IDROCOMB
Hydrogen and fuel cells received quite large attention during the last decade, but a growing effort, both in human and
economic resources, has been dedicated in Italy to these topics in the last five years. This effort is mainly driven by the
• diversification of primary energy sources, with increase of energy security and reduction of dependence on
• reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and local pollution in urban areas;
• improvement of industrial competitiveness and creation of new and specialised jobs.
Very recently the Italian Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Platform has been launched, strictly connected to the European
Platform. An overview on the strategic lines of this platform will be given, high lightening the main objectives planned
in the medium term. The presentation will then explain the Italian ongoing projects, carried out in the framework of
international, national and regional programs, with participation of research organisations, industries and users.
Particulars will be given about the projects that have been recently started at research institutes and industries in the
framework of a National R&D Program on “Hydrogen and Fuel Cells” supported by the Ministry of Research and
Ministry of Environment through the Special Integrative Fund for Research (FISR). The public funds available for a
three year period are about 89 M€ (51 for hydrogen and 38 for fuel cells), for a total cost of the projects of about 120
M€ (FISR funding 70%). ENEA is participating in some of these projects, as well as in European projects carried out in
this field; some information about the activities performed in ENEA will be given in conclusion.
Hydrogen production from biomass in a two-stage gasifier
Paolo De Filippis1, Marianna Zeppieri1, Carlo Borgianni2 Martino Paolucci3, Giovanni Pino3
Università degli Studi di Roma “La Sapienza” Dipartimento di Ingegneria Chimica, dei Materiali, delle Materie Prime
e Metallurgia. Via Eudossiana, 18, 00184 Roma, Italy.
SEAR sc. c/o Parco Scientifico di Tor Vergata, Via della Ricerca Scientifica, Roma, Italy, firstname.lastname@example.org
APAT Via Vitaliano Brancati, Roma, Italy, email@example.com, firstname.lastname@example.org
Currently, hydrogen is produced mainly by steam reforming of methane and to a lesser extent from others
hydrocarbons. In this scenario, the expected benefits of the use of hydrogen as a fuel, such as an increasing
independence from petroleum and the improvement of air quality, are handicapped by the feedstock itself, by the
emission of large amounts of carbon dioxide and by the energy required for the process.
In order to have a clean alternative to fossil fuels, it is then mandatory to produce hydrogen from non-fossil feedstocks,
such as biomass. At present, however, the production cost of hydrogen from biomass is not competitive with those of
traditional fuels like gasoline and diesel fuels.
A drastic reduction of the hydrogen production costs could be achieved if the gas-cleaning facilities could be eliminated
or strongly reduced and if the syngas enthalpy alone were used.
Gasification tests carried out in a two-stage bench-scale reactor with a mixture of oxygen and steam as gasification
agents indicate that this configuration allows a complete gasification of biomass avoiding the formation of carbon and
tar. That is supported also by different two-stage reactors where it is indicated a final tar content without gas cleanup
below 25 mg/Nm3. Under this condition, the downstream cleanup facilities could be eliminated or strongly reduced,
making such a type of reactor a serious candidate for producing hydrogen from biomass. Moreover, the use of a
reforming catalyst proved to be so efficient that the obtained results approach very closely the thermodynamic
equilibrium of the water shift and reforming reactions. This enhances the reliability of the prediction based on
thermodynamic calculation of the behavior of a two-stage gasifier in the temperature range where the reforming catalyst
This work investigates, by means of a thermodynamic analysis, the yields of hydrogen production when biomass is used
as feedstock. In the present study, the biomass selected as potential feedstocks is bagasse and switchgrass.
Syngas production by a modified Biomass gasifier and utilisation in a Molten Carbonate Fuel
Giovanni Pino, Martino Paolucci, Francesco Geri, Riccardo Marceca
(APAT – Via V. Brancati, 48 Rome 00144)
email@example.com, firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com,
P. Defilippis, F. Pochetti
(Rome “La Sapienza” University – Via Eudossiana, 18 Rome 00100)
C. Borgianni (SEAR sc – Rome 00100) firstname.lastname@example.org
In order to produce a clean gas for fuel cell by gasification of biomass (enclosed Municipal Solid Waste-MSW) an
advanced two-stage gasifier will be utilised and the predictable performance are here analysed.
Such a gasifier will be able to provide a syngas almost free of tar (less than 25 mg/Nm3), which will feed a high
temperature fuel cell (MCFC).
The tar cracker and reformer will be positioned at the inside of gasifier vessel.
After gas cooling, filtration (to remove ash content) and depuration (to reduce actual tar content below 1 mg/Nm3), the
syngas will feed a MCFC that operates at 600-700°C producing electricity and heat to be utilised in a co-generative
A typical composition of syngas, for an utilised fixed bed updraft (air blown) gasifier, will be:
H2(17%), CO(21%), CO2(13%), CH4(1%), N2(48%).
The coming syngas in the fuel cell will undergo a shifting of CO (water gas shift reaction-WGSR), at about 500°C, with
consequent enrichment of gas in hydrogen.
Reforming of CH4 will provide additional H2 and CO2.
Part of CO2 produced, enclosing also that due to the CO shifting and CH4 reforming, and N2 will be utilised also to the
start-up and shutdown process of the Fuel Cell. They are not need during normal operation mode.
Small amounts of H2 and CO2 are also used to stabilise the chemical process in the hot module of the cell.
The final gas mixture, before to react with anode, will be composed of H2, CO2 and N2 only.
The high CO2 content is not reducing the cell efficiency in a carbonate electrolyte system.
The exhaust gas, at about 400-450°C, will be utilised for a district heating or to produce high-pressure steam and hot
Before flue gas is delivered at the stack, additional heat recovery will be possible.
In the flue gas at the stack only part of CO2 and N2 will be present; but coming from a gasification of a renewable
resource, residual CO2 and N2 will be sequestered by natural biological cycles and by soil, without contribution to the
increase of the greenhouse gas concentration in atmosphere.
In this system the global reaction in the fuel cell will provide water steam only.
The total efficiency of the system will be of about 60%.
A closed cycle will be so realised if only biomass by renewable material will be provided.
The Code POLIDEMACO (policy decision making code) for Strategic Choices based
Circulation of Benefits. The case of Hydrogen market penetration in the city of Rome
P. Boccardelli*, C. Giannantoni§, S. Ulgiati#
LUISS, Roma, Italy
ENEA - “Italian Agency for New Technology, Energy and the Environment”
Casaccia Research Center - Via Anguillarese Km 1,300
S. Maria di Galeria; 00060 Rome; email@example.com
Energy and Environment Research Unit – University of Siena, Italy
The Code POLIDEMACO represents the computer form of the evaluation methodology termed as Four-Sector
Diagram of Benefits, which is essentially based on: i) the most recent developments of Thermodynamics, in particular
those concerning the so-called “Maximum Em-Power Principle” (and its mathematical formulation); ii) the related
consequences on Economics (a new concept of Externality); iii) the possibility of adopting evaluation parameters even
extremely heterogeneous from each other (exactly because deriving from different theoretical approaches and various
scientific disciplines); iv) the proper consideration of the four main “Subjects” (or Sectors) which are usually involved
in the global productive process: Firm, Society, the Environment as a Source and the Environment as a Sink; and
finally, v) a Decision-Making Process founded more on the estimated external Benefits to be “remunerated” than on
possible damages to be internalized.
As a case study, the City of Rome is analyzed with reference to the possibility of replacing traditional fuels with
Hydrogen, in selected energy supply sectors (namely, transportation and static generation of both electricity and heat for
domestic or small firms use). The strategic positioning of selected Hydrogen technologies is evaluated not only with
respect to other alternative technologies, but also (and especially) on the basis of the fact that induced Benefits are much
higher than Investments required.
Special focus is places on an innovative concept of Quality (thus indicated by a capital Q), based on careful insight into
Maximum Em-Power Principle features and consequences. This is already generating a profound revision not only in
Classical Thermodynamics but also in several related disciplines, and Economics as well. The traditional concept of
Externality, for example, can be now reinterpreted as an “excess” in terms of Quality, and thus never ever reducible to
the sole action of one subject or the other of the transaction, or to their “sum”. In fact, any generated “excess” of
Quality, which emerges from the relationship, is an “extra benefit” which goes far beyond the “generator” and
“generating” subjects and contributes to the generation of a higher level of “organization” in the whole system.
Improved Performance of Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells due to Innovative Ceramic Materials
evaluated by an advanced LCA methodology
S. Bargigli1, A. Moreno2, A. Torazza3 and S. Ulgiati4
Energy and Environment Research Unit, Dept. of Chemistry, Siena University, Italy, firstname.lastname@example.org
Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Project, ENEA - CR Casaccia, Rome - Italy
Ansaldo Fuel Cells S.r.l., Genova - Italy
Molten Carbonate Fuel Cell 500 kW power units are currently under development by ENEA and Ansaldo Fuel Cells
within research project funded by the European Union and the Italian Government. MCFCs, as a result of the intense
efforts in the R&D of innovative ceramic components (anode, cathode and matrix) as well as metallic components, are
now characterized by higher corrosion resistance and more constant performance in time. The present analysis provides
a special insight on the improvements in the MCFC production processes and the development of innovative materials
aimed at extending the fuel cell lifetime. Performance and loading indicators are calculated and compared for several
independent improvement options regarding each FC component and over different lifetime scenarios.
The evaluation method used for the analysis was developed by our research unit (SUMMA: Sustainability Multi-
method Multi-scale Assessment). Stemming from the LCA conceptual framework the method consists of the parallel
application of selected impact assessment methods (MFA, Embodied Energy, Emergy, CML) which allows a broader
view on the analysed system and helps identify which specific items contribute to a larger extent to the total energy and
Keywords: Fuel cells, MCFC, LCA, SUMMA method, Hydrogen, ceramic materials.
Evaluation of sugar cane production in Brazil, based on data from producers with good
management systems and comparison with published results
Jose Tomaz Vieira Pereira1, Jose Antonio Dalbem1
State University of Campinas-SP-Brazil
Mechanical Engineering Faculty, Energy Department
The sugar cane agroindustry has experienced a remarkable evolution in productivity. The learning curve reveals
noticeable improvements in productivity, both in agricultural and industrial activities. The increase in efficiency in
alcohol production in the last 30 years was nearly 50%, due to improvements in agroindustrial processes; the increase
was even higher in some specific cases. This paper demonstrates the impact of good management practices in
agricultural activities related to sugar cane production, which accounts for approximately 70% of the total costs of sugar
and alcohol production. Reliable data are always difficult to achieve, especially in agriculture, which traditionally does
not have the same level of data organization as the industrial field. This study was performed by selection of some sugar
cane producers with good management systems, for whom detailed data on sugar cane production are available,
addressing all production factors. Analysis of these data provides emergetic indices that indicate the evolution both in
technology and management. These indices were compared with that previously published ones.
The energy metabolism of China and other world countries in relation to the Kyoto protocol
and the possible role of biomass and other alternative energy sources.
Kozo Mayumi, Jesus Ramos Martin and Mario Giampietro
email@example.com, firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com
The metabolism of developed countries requires an energy sector capable of delivering a very large amount of energy
per capita (quantity), at a huge level of power density (quality), while absorbing only a negligible fraction of: (1)
working time (less than 1% of the work force); and (2) colonized land. The structural changes associated with the
economic growth of developing countries entail that their energy sector must have the same characteristics expected for
the energy sector of developed countries. This is true especially for those countries with a large population and high
demographic pressure such as China. Within this background the appraisal of the option biofuels as an alternative to oil
is presented as a case study. First, the various typologies of societal metabolism found for different croups of country
at the world level are characterized, in order to study the mix determining the total CO2 emissions. Then a scenario
analysis referring to the development of China (CO2 emission, energy demand, and implications for the feasibility of
Kyoto protocol) is presented in order to characterize the future required performance of its energy sector. Finally, the
required characteristics of the energy sector are compared with the expected characteristics of an energy sector based on
biofuels. The conclusion is that the high labor and land demand per net unit of biofuel delivered to society makes this
option not compatible either with the typical patterns of metabolism associated with developed societies or developing
countries willing to undergo a process of fast economic growth.
An optimal decision model for energy production from biomasses: a logistics point of view
Francesco Fromboa,b, Riccardo Minciardia,b, Michela Robbaa,b, Fulvia Rossoa, Roberto Sacilea,b
CIMA, Interuniversity Center for Environmental Monitoring, Via Cadorna 7, 17100 Savona, Italy,
DIST, Department of Communication, Computer and System Sciences, University of Genoa, Genova, Italy
One of the key factors on which the sustainable development of our society should be based is the possibility to take
advantage of renewable energy. Forest biomass exploitation is one of these possibilities. Wood and in general
lignocellulosic biomasses are one of the most common and widespread resources in the world. Their use, in respect of
the environment, to produce energy has many advantages such as, for example, the reduction of greenhouse emissions.
This paper describes a GIS-based Environmental Decision Support System (EDSS) for an optimal use of forest biomass
and untreated industrial wood residues to produce energy. Specifically, the improvements respect to a previous EDSS
developed by the same authors (Freppaz et al. (2004); Federici et al. (2005)), are described in detail. The aim of this
work is to evaluate the possibility of systematic biomass exploitation for thermic and electric energy production, while
achieving a correct management and requalification of the forest and the re-using of the not-treated industrial wood
residuals. Attention is focused on the evaluation of different technologies (pyrolysis, gasification, combustion), on
energy-kinds produced (heat, electric energy or biodiesel), and on the definition of the harvesting and pretreatment
modality (in particular the effects of drying in the efficiency improvement of thermic processes). An accurate model of
the forest system is included in the EDSS in order to evaluate the possibility of a sustainable use of the forest biomass
and to determine carbon sequestration by forest canopy. A decision model (in terms of decision variables, objectives
and constraints), embedding the previously mentioned aspects, is formalized. Finally, a case study is presented and
Keywords: Decision Support System, Optimization, Biomass, Renewable Energy
Air versus terrestrial transport modalities: an environmental comparison
M.Federici*, F.Ruzzenenti, S.Ulgiati and R.Basosi
Department of Chemistry, University of Siena. Via Alcide de Gasperi 2, 53100 Siena.
*Corresponding author: firstname.lastname@example.org, tel 0039 0577 234265
In the last thirteen years, world wide air transportation has shown an average yearly growth rate of 4.6%. Forecasts
seem to confirm that this will be the average increase rate for the next 20 years. Within this framework, low-cost
airlines are increasing their market share very quickly, making airplane the first challenger of terrestrial transport
modalities, not only for medium and long distance, but also for short trips. This is because air transport is obviously
faster than trains and cars, and very often it comes out to be the cheaper option in monetary terms, too.
Generally airplanes are considered the more energy-intensive and polluting transport modality, followed by high
velocity railway. Yet, when air transport is compared to high velocity and more modern terrestrial modalities using a
“global scale” approach which takes into account all the energy and materials required to build up infrastructures (i.e.
tunnels, railways, highways) and vehicles, the gap among the environmental performances of airplanes, trains and cars
seems to significantly narrow. Efficiency and environmental loading have been assessed by means of Material Flow
Accounting, Embodied Energy, Exergy and Emergy analyses.
Use of JAVA application and XML database for emergy evaluation of agricultural systems
Fábio Takahashi, Mileine Zanghetin, Enrique Ortega*
Laboratory of Ecological Engineering, School of Food Engineering
Unicamp, Caixa Postal 6121, Campinas, São Paulo, Brasil CEP 13083-862
Emergy analysis could be broadly used if databases and computer programs were user-friendly and accessible through
the Internet. Documents XML (extensible markup language) are being widely used for the storage and exchange of data
and XSLT documents (extensible stylesheet language transformation) are being developed for transforming XML
documents. In the first stage of development of this type of software, XML archives had been developed to hold the
data of agricultural systems of Florida and a XSLT archive was created to transform these data and to allow their
reading in browsers. The information of agricultural systems stored in XML files are: amount of each resource used,
units of measure, units conversion factors, solar transformities and the emergy flows calculated. The emergy analysis of
agricultural systems can be made very easily changing only the amounts of used resources if formularies are
standardized. A Java application was developed to allow the users to modify the amounts of resources and products of
Florida agriculture systems (available at Internet). This application uses libraries of the Borland JBuilder 2005 system
for manipulation of archives XML. In the current stage of development, the program is executed in the user computer.
The application was developed for local use and its executable archive is very large (100MB). For this reason, the file
download can be difficult for some users. In order to solve this problem, the next step will be the development of an
applet that could be executed in a server. This applet will use existing XML documents on the server and a XSLT
archive to calculate the new emergy flows, emergy indices and to visualize the results in an Internet navigator. The use
of Brazilian agriculture data will be used in the next stage of the research; these systems are more complex than the
agricultural systems of Florida so far used.
Keywords: emergy analysis, java application, XML.
Emergy analysis of frozen concentrated orange juice
Consuelo de Lima Fernandez Pereira a and Enrique Ortega b
Laboratory of Ecological Engineering (LEIA)
School of Food Engineering (FEA) - State University of Campinas
Unicamp, CP 6121, Campinas, SP, Brazil. CEP 13083-970
- email@example.com b - Ortega@fea.unicamp.br
Emergy Analysis was used to assess the Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice (FCOJ) production chain including the
following steps: orchard, FCOJ processing in Brazil, terrestrial and maritime transport (both in Brazil and in Europe),
port operations (at Santos and Ghent ports) and orange juice dilution and packaging operation in Europe. Brazil, the
major FCOJ world producer, exports about 98% of its production, mainly to Europe (79%). FCOJ production,
concentrated at São Paulo State, demands a huge amount of non-renewable energy in its manufacturing and transport.
The Brazilian orchards present a very high production per hectare (24 ton/ha.year) as a consequence of intensive use of
chemical inputs, specially herbicides and pesticides, labor and energy for irrigation. The orange produced by this system
presents a transformity value of 3,44 E 5 seJ/J, renewability of only 28,93%, Emergy Yield Ratio of 1,55, and Emergy
Loading Ratio of 2,46. These results alone are important since they show that the agro-chemical model adopted is not
sustainable. The results for ready-to-drink orange juice consumed in Europe show an increase in use of non-renewable
resources: transformity increases to 7,94 E 5 seJ/J, Renewability decreases to 16,03%, Emergy Yield Ratio decreases to
1,24, and Emergy Loading Ratio increases to 5,24. These findings show that this chain is unsustainable on the long run.
These are preliminary results, does not include waste treatment.
Energy conservation policy: should public administration give the good example?
F.Ruzzenenti*, M.Pagni°, M.Federici*#, C.Bruni°, R.Basosi*#,
*Center for Complex Systems Investigation, University of Siena, Italy
°Facilities Administration Office, University of Siena, Italy
#Department of Chemistry, University of Siena, Italy
E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com, firstname.lastname@example.org
Two years ago, the University of Siena started a project aimed at reducing both energy costs and energy consumptions.
The budget to finance this project came from savings obtained by the University switching from public energy suppliers
to private ones after optioning for the electricity free market. This is in accordance with Directive 2002/91/CE, which
states that: “The public sector in each Member State should therefore set a good example regarding investments,
maintenance and other expenditure for energy-using equipment, energy services and other energy efficiency measures.”
This project was intended to implement a policy of environmental awareness and to raise the target of managerial
effectiveness of the administration. The Chemistry Department and part of the central administration developed a
detailed analysis of energy consumptions and expenditures on the basis of accounting records. Data were then used to
produce various indicators to evaluate building performances and to spot out areas of major inefficiency.
According to this analysis, besides technical and constructive shortcomings, a large part of the energy losses are caused
by user behavior and ineffective management of activities and systems. Preliminary measures, therefore, will tackle the
organization of activities and management. Further steps will address the quality and condition of buildings’ bodies,
energy appliances and energy supplying systems.
Time and Tradition in the Works of Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen
Katharine N. Farrell* and Kozo Mayumi#
JSPS Fellow, Faculty of Integrated Arts and Sciences, The University of Tokushima, Tokushima City, 770-8502,
Professor of Economics, Faculty of Integrated Arts and Sciences, The University of Tokushima, Tokushima City 770-
The research follows a strand of enquiry reflected in Mayumi’s recent study of the films of Hayao Miyazaki, which can
be understood as part of a wider international academic discourse on the role of symbolism and culture in building and
maintaining sustainable societies. The research will study and clarify a relationship between time, production and
tradition that is suggested and framed in Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen’s flow/fund model of economic production. It will
focus on two writings in which Georgescu-Roegen outlined the details of his flow/fund model and will draw on related
works by Professor Mayumi’s.
This study is entirely theoretical and focuses on the relationship between (i) the time dependant character of the
flow/fund capital category distinctions and (ii) the role of tradition and culture in mediating and regulating economic
production. The work is based upon the hypothesis that there is a strong and under-theorised link between the principles
at the core of Georgescu-Roegen’s view of capital / nature relationships and his arguments concerning reliance of
human societies on exosomatic (outside the body) instruments (including capital and tradition) for the production of
economic goods and services. The main task of this research is to tease out the links between these two positions,
through a detailed reading of Georgescu-Roegen’s work.
We believe that recent developments in the commodity markets, where energy production capacity is now being traded
as a commodity, may be explained through insights developed in the course of this study. We propose to describe how
changing perceptions of time-frame (i.e. the shortening of time frame associated with the impending oil shock) could
influence the resource/capital and/or flow/fund status of energy supplies in the forms of raw materials and
conversion/power production capacity.
How far energy efficiency can affect the economic structure: an analysis of long-term,
structural, rebound effect, in the road freight transport sector
F. Ruzzenenti *§, M. Federici *, S. Ulgiati#, and R. Basosi*
* Center for Complex Systems Investigation, University of Siena, Italy
# Department of Chemistry, University of Siena, Italy
§ Corresponding Author: email@example.com
A policy to sustain a more efficient use of energy has frequently been proposed as the main and most successful
strategy to reduce energy consumption. This policy was once intended to delay the depletion rate of energy sources, but
it is currently employed to address emission reduction standards. Although energy efficiency improvement plays a
crucial role in energy conservation policies, it never resulted in an actual reduction of energy consumptions. In this
paper, we analyze the shift in the economy that brought about a productive system from a “Fordian”, unilocated,
national wide structure to a “post-Fordian”, decentralized, global network-like structure. We then formulate the
hypothesis that such a world-wide change was driven, among other causes, by the fuel efficiency improvement that
dramatically affected the road transport system in the 20 years running from the early 1970’s. An accurate analysis of
truck fuel economy over this period proves that efficiency increased much more than it is commonly believed. In spite
of such improvements, global energy consumption of road freight transport system grew more than any other economic
sector, mostly due to the increased distance traveled for hauled goods. We argue that this major change in the
productive structure offset the benefits in terms of energy conservation brought by a better fuel efficiency of trucks.
Furthermore, the general relationship between energy efficiency and the structure of the system seems to represent a
recursive developmental pattern that further research must address in order to better understand the impact of efficiency
on global energy consumptions.
Emergy Based Life Cycle Analysis of Soybean: The agricultural production and
industrialization in Brazil
Otávio Cavalett and Enrique Ortega
Laboratory of Ecological Engineering (LEIA)
School of Food Engineering (FEA)
State University of Crampinas (UNICAMP)
CP 6121, Campinas, SP, Brazil. CEP 13083-970
In this work we evaluated the first stages of the soybean life cycle in Brazil: the agricultural production systems and the
industrialization processes by using the emergy methodology as an analysis tool. For the agricultural stage we
considered two production models: the model adopted in the South region (“Rolling Pampas”) and the model adopted in
the Savannah (“Cerrado”) region. The emergy indicators obtained for the South region soybean production system
were: Transformity: 145,000 sej/J; Emergy Yield Ratio: 4.16; Emergy Investment Ratio: 0.32; Environmental Loading
Ratio: 0.83; Renewability: 55%; Emergy Exchange Ratio: 4.75. The emergy indicators obtained for the Savannah
region soybean production system were: Transformity: 170,000 sej/J; Emergy Yield Ratio: 3.24; Emergy Investment
Ratio: 0.45; Environmental Loading Ratio: 0.90; Renewability: 53%; Emergy Exchange Ratio: 5.57. The amount of
soybean produced in Brazil in 2004 was 52.2 millions of tons where 54% was processed in Brazil and 38% was
exported as grains. We considered (based on the statistical data) that 25% (approximately 4.7 millions of ha) of the
soybean was produced adopting the South region production model and the other part, 74% (approximately 13.1
millions of ha) was produced adopting the Savannah region production model. Therefore, the emergy indicators
obtained for the soybean in Brazil were: Transformity: 165,000 sej/J; Emergy Yield Ratio: 3.39; Emergy Investment
Ratio: 0.42; Environmental Loading Ratio: 0.88; Renewability: 53%; Emergy Exchange Ratio: 5.38. The emergy flows
for the soybean production in Brazil in 2004 were: Renewable: 1.03x1023 sej/year; Non renewable: 3.39x1022 sej/year;
Feedback: 5.74x1022 sej/year and the Total was 1.95x1023 sej/year. The transport from the farm to the industry using
heavy trucks used 1.11x1021 sej/year. The amount of soybean processed in Brazil in 2004 was 28.2 millions of tons. The
crashing process used 4.53x1021 sej/year from the economy. The amount of soy oil refined in Brazil in 2004 was 5.1
millions of tons. The soy oil refining process used 7.08x1020 sej/year from economy. From these results it is possible to
visualize that the soybean agricultural production system used 94.7% of total emergy involved in the mentioned
processes of the soybean life cycle. The transport system used 0.5%, the crashing process used 4.1% and the oil refining
used 0.6%. The agricultural production system is clearly the most important system in the initial stages of the soybean
life cycle. Because of that, the public policy must be oriented mainly to this stage. The organic production models and
other integration processes technologies must be brought forth toward a more sustainable soybean chain.
Method to estimate biomass production in natural ecosystems
Raúl Benito Siche Jaraa, Feni D.R. Agostinhob, Enrique Ortegab
Escuela de Ingeniería Agroindustrial – Facultad de Ciencias Agropecuarias
Universidad Nacional de Trujillo, Av. Juan Pablo II s/n. Ciudad Universitaria, Trujillo, Peru.
Laboratório de Engenharia Ecológica e Informática Aplicada – DEA/FEA
Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, SP, Brazil CEP: 13083-970.
The calculation of the biomass produced for the diverse types of ecosystems is a very important information for the
world-wide commerce of carbon credits (payment for the absorption of the CO2 emissions). The biomass calculation is
also important to quantify the recycling of nutrients in order to provide information for regional resources management.
Millions of people use the vegetal biomass as direct source of energy, mainly in peripheral countries; therefore the
vegetal biomass of a system need to be calculated and considered as a renewable energy supply. Until now, the emergy
analysis procedures still does not incorporate this calculation, maybe because the parameter is difficult to quantify. The
objective of this work is to elaborate a method to estimate the available biomass energy for several sites around the
world, so that it can be used as input in the emergy evaluation. Therefore the method considers the biomass produced in
different kind of ecosystems as inputs in the spread sheets calculation. Linear regressions between primary liquid
productivity of biomass above of the ground (g/m2.yr) and the evapotranspiration (mm/yr) had been elaborated, besides
using data of the world-wide averages of liquid primary carbon productivity (gC/m2.yr). The calculation spreadsheet
contains a data base of evapotranspiration values calculated in function of temperature and rain precipitation. The
spreadsheet output is the biomass produced in the agricultural unit, as dry mass (g/year) and energy (J/year); values that
can be directly used in emergy evaluations.
Keywords: biomass calculation, emergy analysis, ecosystems, energy.
Environment and Complexity: Assessing Energy and Material Flows to support the Urban
Ecosystem of Rome
M. Ascione§, L. Campanella#, F. Cherubini*, S. Bargigli* and S. Ulgiati*
Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Parma, Italy, firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com
Department of Chemistry, University of Siena, Italy
Department of Chemistry, University of Roma, Italy
General goal of the present work was to study stability/sustainability conditions of urban systems related to quantity and
quality of available resources as well as to their circulation internally. For this reason we investigated thoroughly:
1) The interactions among urban system and surrounding landscape on local and larger (regional, global) scales;
2) Complexity and complexity increase (organization, number of components, internal dynamics) of the urban system
according to increased size and interactions.
The following issues have been investigated and are preliminarly discussed in this Workshop presentation:
(a) Relation between the quantity and quality of the resources supplied to a urban system and its development trajectory
(for example: typology of buildings, urban structure, production and consumption patterns, transport systems, etc);
(b) the sustainability of the investigated urban system, by comparing indicators generated from different methods,
including emergy. (c) The feasibility and validity of selected proposals aimed at achieving greater sustainability (for
example: services of mass transport, increase of renewable energy use, increase of environmentally protected areas,
urban waste disposal with energy and raw material recovery, etc).
(d) Problems of "carrying capacity“: which fraction of urban assets, population and activity would be sustainable only
relying on resources locally available.
(e) The environmental consequences of the increased size of urban systems (positive and negative externalities).
The investigation was performed by means of a multi-method approach (mass flow accounting, energy analysis,
ecological footprint, eMergy synthesis). Results are compared with data for world cities published by other Authors.
The usefulness of a multi-method approach in order to clearly understand the domain of application of each method as
well as in order to get a more comprehensive picture of the investigated system is also stressed.
LCA of waste management options for energy and material resource recovery.
The case of Rome
F. Cherubini*, S. Bargigli, M. Raugei and S. Ulgiati
University of Siena, Department of Chemistry
This work investigates the collection and disposal to landfill of the Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) of the city of Rome;
several alternative scenarios for waste management are also proposed. The methodological framework of the analysis is
the Life Cycle Assessment, that is used to assess the environmental performance of the present situation of Rome and of
alternative solid waste management options. Other methodologies used to expand the understanding of the investigated
processes within an LCA framework are: Material Flow Accounting (MFA), Embodied Energy and Emergy Analysis.
An analytical comparison of the following scenarios is then performed:
• Scenario 0: most of MSW are delivered to landfill without any energetic or material recovering; more or less,
the actual case of Rome, at present.
• Scenario 1: MSW delivered to landfill, but some biogas is recovered and used to produce electricity.
• Scenario 2: all MSW are delivered to a sorting plant, where the organic fraction is separated from the rest of
the waste (metals are also recovered and sent to recycling); the organic fraction is then processed by means of
anaerobic digestion in order to obtain biogas fuel and digestate. The latter is converted to compost. The
inorganic fractionis converted to RDF (Refuse Derived Fuel) and burnt to produce electricity.
• Scenario 3: the waste is directly incinerated to produce electricity and steam.
Results are presented on local and global scales and the limits and merits of each approach are discussed together with
the advantage of integrated use.
Influence of catalysts structures on steam reforming performances by CFD simulation
Nicola Verdone, Paolo de Filippis, Gabriella Compagnone
E-mail address: firstname.lastname@example.org (G.Compagnone).
Università degli Studi di Roma “La Sapienza” Dipartimento di Ingegneria Chimica, dei Materiali, delle Materie Prime e
Metallurgia. Via Eudossiana, 18, 00184 Rome, Italy.
Hydrogen consumption is expected to increase sharply in the future due to the environmental benefits of its utilization.
However, a real benefit in the use of hydrogen can arise only increasing the efficiency of the production processes. At
present, the conventional technology for large scale production of hydrogen is catalytic steam reforming of methane
and, to a lesser extent, partial oxidation of higher hydrocarbons. Steam reforming, being based on endothermic
reactions, is industrially operated at a high temperature around 800°C over a nickel/alumina-based catalyst. Such a high
temperature has major drawbacks including the need for expensive tubular reformers made of special alloys,
irreversible carbon formation and large energy consumption. In the last decades a big effort was made in the
improvement of both production and separation processes. However, only in the last few years have new catalysts and
supports been studied, with the major objective to reduce the wall temperature of the tubular reformer. This objective
can be reached improving the catalyst activity and/or the heat transfer in the catalyst bed.
A useful tool for the prediction of the behaviour of a fixed-bed catalytic reactor is CFD analysis. This tool allows to
quantify the influence of the geometrical characteristics of the bed structures on flow and temperature distributions, and
can be used to optimize reactor design to obtain flow and heat transport of maximum uniformity.
The aim of this study is to investigate, by means of CFD analysis, the relationship between the local flow field and the
wall heat flux in a packed-bed reactor. These aspects are especially critical for highly endothermic or exothermic
reactions in low tube-to-particle diameter ratio tubes, such as those used in steam reforming. The main objective is to
evaluate the effects of new structured catalytic supports on the steam reforming reactions yields. Simulations were
performed under realistic industrial conditions of high temperature, pressure and gas flow rate. Results will be presented
showing the actual temperature profiles in the catalyst bed, and the effect on the local heat transfer rates of different
conditions at different locations along the catalyst tube.
Keywords: hydrogen; steam reforming; CFD; catalytic supports.
Photoelectrochemical Water Splitting
C. Borgianni1, L. Campanella2, A. Dell’Era3, M. Paolucci4, M. Pasquali3 and G. Visco2
1) SEAR sc. Parco Scientifico e Tecnologico di Tor Vergata - Via della ricerca scientifica, email@example.com
2) Dip. Di Chimica – Università di Roma “La Sapienza” Piazzale Aldo Moro 5 – 00185 Roma Italy
3) Dip. Di ICMMPM – Università di Roma “La Sapienza” Via del Castro Laurenziano 7 – 00161 Roma Italy
4) APAT Via Vitaliano Brancati 48 – 00144 Roma, firstname.lastname@example.org
The aim of our research is to produce hydrogen from water using sunlight as the energy source, with efficiencies high
enough to allow commercial production of hydrogen on a large scale. Much research was undertaken in the last three
decades to engineer a suitable semiconducting photocatalyst material for water splitting in an electrochemical cell. A
good photocatalyst material must have: an energy band gap which is optimum for water splitting (approximately 2 eV
with conduction and valence band edges optimally placed with respect to the water redox potentials), strong optical
absorption in the visible and ultraviolet spectral regions, good stability in strong electrolytes and efficient charge
transfer properties between the semiconductor and the electrolyte.
Titanium dioxide is used as a photocatalyst in this research; it is non-toxic, stable and inexpensive. Preliminary tests
show hydrogen production. To determine the charge transfer resistance (Rct) of the reaction on the electrode-solution
interface, impedance spectroscopy measures in absence and in presence of light were carried out. The Rct decreases
from 7310 to 1840 Ohms when the light is turned on.
In these preliminary experiments very low yield was obtained, but the use of additives with TiO2, inorganic (e.g. Fe2O3)
or organic (anthocyanins) compounds, will supply the desired improvements.
Economic growth and environmental quality: an econometric and a decomposition analysis
Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Dalarna University
SE-781 88 Borlänge, Sweden
This paper explores the emissions of CO2 in Italy during 1861 to 2002. The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) is
applied to explore the relationship between CO2 emission and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. An Index
Decomposition Analysis (IDA) is also applied to investigate changes in emissions between 1990 to 2002. Several
factors contribute to change in the emission of CO2. These factors generally include a scale effect, a technological
effect and an composition effect. This paper contributes to the existing analyses of the emission of CO2 by analysing
which sectors are responsible for the emission and by quantifying the magnitude of the theoretical factors expected to
influence the emission. Results indicate the typical inverted “U” form of EKC is not confirmed with our data set for
Italy. According our econometric results, there is a positive relationship between economic growth and CO2; following
the trend, the maximum emission of CO2 per capita in Italy would be reached when the GDP per capita will be about
26900 US$ (turning point). Basically, two major forces have determined the increase of CO2 pollution in Italy over
time: eco-efficiency (pollution per monetary unit of output) and volume effect (volume growth of GDP).
Key words: economic growth, CO2, environmental quality, Environmental Kuznets Curve, Decomposition analysis.
Energy analysis and emergy synthesis of selected human-dominated ecosystems.
A comparative view.
a P.P. Franzese, b T. Rydberg, a G.F. Russo and c S. Ulgiati
a Department of Environmental Sciences, Parthenope University of Naples, Italy
b Department of Urban and Rural Development, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden
c Department of Chemistry, University of Siena, Italy
In this paper the differences between two methodologies of energy analysis (energy analysis and emergy synthesis) are
highlighted and discussed. This is achieved by comparing results from a case study, namely corn (Zea mays) production
in Italy, investigated by the Authors, and selected systems from published literature. The two different energy analysis
frameworks are: Gross Energy Requirement (Slesser, 1978) and emergy synthesis (Odum, 1996). The case study was
aimed at quantifying the contribution of both natural and economic flows to the production processes. Natural and
economic flows supporting the investigated system were assessed and calculated as energy equivalent (MJ) and emergy
unit (solar emergy Joule, seJ) in order to determine the energy requirement per unit product (MJ kg-1) and its specific
emergy (seJ kg-1). Performance indicators are calculated and discussed in relation with results published by other
The theoretical aspects are discussed with reference to spatial and time scale factors and a comparison is also made with
other theoretical papers on similar subject (Brown and Herendeen, 1996; Ulgiati, 2001; Sciubba and Ulgiati, 2005).
Energy, Sustainability, and Societal Metabolism
Joseph A. Tainter
Global Institute of Sustainability and School of Human Evolution and Social Change
Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA
As energy prices continue to rise, we are reminded again that resources are central to societal metabolism and to
sustainability. Yet to many citizens of industrial nations societal metabolism is invisible, sustainability is assumed, and
energy prices reflect only greed. In the absence of public awareness, sustainability has become the domain of
specialists. The disciplinary backgrounds of specialists focus discussions on non-commensurate domains, ensuring that
sustainability programs will produce conflict and fail. An alternative approach is to recognize that sustainability is a
matter of values, not just resources, and that sustainability goals, conflicts, and costs must be part of analyses of societal
The experiences and the challenges of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA)
FAO, Rome, Italy
Responding to the challenges of integrating economic, social and environmental goals into policy making requires an
integrated analysis as well as credible, salient and legitimate information to inform decision-making. The Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment (MA) was a four year international work program designed to meet the needs of decision
makers and the public for scientific information concerning the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-
being and options for responding to these changes. The assessment, which involved about 1300 authors from 95
countries, was carried out at the global level as well as thru sub-global assessments and presented its findings in 2005.
The main focus of the four MA working groups was on tracking current and future changes in ecosystem services, their
driving forces and impacts and how to respond to them. The presentation covers the concepts and main findings of the
MA and talks about the process of developing a coherent framework and integrating information across various
disciplines and epistemologies. In addition, the presentation discusses how the generated information could help to
mainstream environmental goals into on-going economic and developmental decision making processes, as a step
towards meeting the sustainability goal in the future.
The role of institutions, governance and markets in the pursuit of sustainability
GfK – Center for Market Research
Draškovićeva 54, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia.
In spite of new warning signs related to deterioration of natural environment (Scheffer at al. 2001; Mooney et al. 2005)
and the global warming process (Brook 2005) the belief that free markets and technological progress will be able to
cope with these potentially overwhelming treats for humanity is still pervasive. This belief is illusory and misleading for
Markets in general drive economic process towards those structural changes that are compatible with the expectations
of higher returns for shareholders. Resource and energy productivity growth generally happens only as a side effect of
profit seeking policies. Markets are blind to species extinction and to loss of biodiversity - what they account for is only
that a decline in the number of a species may cause its market price to increase, providing that a species in question has
a market value, which is valid for only a tiny fraction of extant biodiversity. Given the enormous difference between
characteristic time scales of markets and processes that drive climate change it is very difficult for the former to deal
effectively with the treats of the latter. All these intrinsic characteristics of free markets make them unlikely to handle
complex environmental and climatic problems that the world faces today.
A belief that science and technology alone will eventually solve most if not all of our problems related to society-
economy-environment interactions is not well supported among the scientific community itself (Ludwig et al, 1993).
There is also evidence that required technical innovations do happen thanks to the appropriate constraints placed upon
the business sector by the government (Taylor et al. 2003). Therefore, technological progress needs to be steered into a
preferred direction and that means that private and government funds should have a consistent common goal if we want
to see a desired change happen.
Markets, however, do drive change, innovation and productivity in general. Suffice to compare the difference in the
dynamics of the Chinese economy before and after the reforms that institutionalized markets, or to compare the
dynamics and the rate of innovations in the US and in the ex-Soviet Block economies. Therefore, if we wish to achieve
rapid technological change and creative adaptation to new constraints, appropriately steered markets should be kept as
one of the key mechanisms.
As we cannot rely on markets and technological progress alone - we must look for other mechanisms that may drive the
global socioeconomic system towards sustainability. Schafer (1994) points out that possible collapse of global
ecosystem is a cultural and not an economic or environmental problem and that solution requires “a fundamental
transformation of people’s cultural values, attitudes, practices, and policies which affect the way people relate to each
other and the world around them”. According to Robinson (2004), “sustainability is ultimately an issue of human
behaviour, and negotiation over preferred futures, under conditions of deep contingency and uncertainty”. The
emphasis on values, attitudes, and preferred futures points at the crucial importance of how we perceive the world and
our place in it (Matutinović 2006). On the other hand “practices” and “policies” indicate the importance of institutions
and governance in the process of achieving sustainability.
Building on Salthe’s (1985) hierarchy theory we can analyse the pursuit of sustainability as a process dependent on a
certain set of initiating and boundary conditions. The process should bring the world to an extensive reduction of human
impact on resources, ecosystems, and climate. It should also contribute to an increase in global equity, poverty
reduction, and cessation of violent conflicts. For this to happen, we need to create adequate boundary conditions that
would steer collective behaviour into a desired direction. In a hierarchical top-down perspective, the prevailing
worldview, which is based on individualism and a bundle of materialist-hedonist values and beliefs, should change in
the fist place in order to enable a new direction in the governance process. The process of governance is rendered
operative basically, but not exclusively, trough the institutional framework, which directly steers collective behaviour of
firms and households in the direction of achieving sustainability.
Although there is a visible trend in the increase of global consciousness about environmental and social problems
worldwide, the likelihood that a radically new worldview will emerge in a critical mass of human population necessary
to drive visible change is very small. Among the major reasons for this: (1) the wide gap in the level of achieved
material well-being among major countries of interest and the respective expectations of billions of people to fill it at
least partially, (2) the individualist and materialist worldview of the West with its most prominent ideology,
neoliberalism, is at its peak of worldwide penetration and socio-political influence. Consequently, we miss an
important, high-level constraint to drive the process of socioeconomic change towards sustainability.
Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MSIASEM) for
checking the feasibility and desirability of alternatives to fossil energy.
How serious is the addiction to oil of modern societies
Mario Giampietro, Kozo Mayumi and Jesus Ramos
email@example.com, firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com
A metaphor is used to illustrated the key feature of fossil energy which made possible the industrial revolution: the
energy sector of a society seen like the heart for the human body. An alternative heart, to be viable, must deliver the
supply of blood which is expected by the rest of the body both in terms of quantity and quality. For a developed society,
addicted to the quantity and quality of energy supply associated with fossil energy, not everything that can be burned
should be considered as a desirable fuel.
The methodological approach called Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism can
be used to generate a quantitative analysis useful for checking the feasibility and desirability of scenarios of alternatives
to fossil energy. A short introduction, presents the basic rationale and the theoretical building blocks of this approach
(Mosaic Effect Across Levels and Impredicative Loop Analysis). Then a few results of previous applications of this
method are used to illustrate how MSIASEM can be used for checking the feasibility and desirability of alternative
energy sources. This approach can provide a heuristic vision of the “quality” of potential alternatives to fossil energy,
due to its ability to contextualize such an analysis in relation to the characteristics of the metabolism of a given society,
the characteristics of its energy sector and the characteristics of the metabolism of the ecosystems embedding them.
Design of a service-oriented energy system completely based on renewable sources
Graz University of Technology
Institute for Resource Efficient and Sustainable Systems
Inffeldgasse 21b, A-8010 Graz
National energy statistics usually show energy flows. Their presentation includes losses of energy in the various stages
of conversion (refinery, power plants, transmission, end-user,…). At the place of the final user, efficiencies of the last
energy conversion technology are used (motor, house heating system,…). While “efficiencies” are always
dimensionless (useful energy / energy input), the final “energy service” has a completely different dimension (e.g. km t/
litre gasoline). This final conversion can therefore only be described in terms of effectiveness (effect per input) and not
by efficiency (output/input).
Designing a sustainable energy system based on renewable “solar” resources should therefore not aim at the substitution
of fossil resources, but on the provision of the energy-services needed.
For a growing use of solar energy the available area often is considered be the limiting factor. For an estimation of areas
necessary, energy services can be divided into:
• Low temperature (T ≤ 150°C)
• Medium and high temperature (T>150°C)
• Mobility and transport
• Light and information
• Power for stationary use
More than this, renewables have to replace fossil resources in the production of chemicals and polymers as well.
Different paths from solar radiation to energy services show completely different needs for areas regarding quantity
(size) and quality. Electricity, biogas, biofuels and hydrogen act as transport and/or storage media.
For the Austrian situation, the required areas are calculated. The calculations show, that a service oriented energy
system can be completely based on solar energy even in an alpine climate as the Austrian.
THE ECO-UNIT: A basis for sustainable development.
Analysis of experiences in Latin-America and Europe
Enrique Ortega 1, Folke Günther 2, Stephen Hinton 3
Unicamp, Campinas, Sao Paulo, Brazil, firstname.lastname@example.org
Holon Ecosystem Consultant, Lund, Sweden, email@example.com
AVBP, Sustainable Development Consultant, Sweden, firstname.lastname@example.org
As the world becomes global, performance indicators show that human systems are unsustainable almost everywhere.
Developed economic systems are very similar all over the planet, depending on fossil fuels, unfair payments of human
services and rapid extraction of natural resources without concerns for regeneration time. In addition, developed
economic systems are displacing local economies and therefore decreasing the organizational diversity of human
When oil extraction comes to its peak and energy becomes more expensive, the capacity of the economy to deliver
services will decline rapidly. The global human system shows signs of possible collapse in the short term, which calls
for innovative, self-organizing processes aimed at preventing such a gloomy picture.
Even if the possibility of collapse can be mitigated, the risks of present systems urgently need addressing: ‘Eco-units’ is
a new concept of organization of urban and rural development. This type of settlement is under construction in several
countries with different approaches. Basically, it is a rural unit that embodies complementary ecological principles and
economical objectives by investing in a high degree local self-sufficiency. Main strategies are:  simultaneous
promotion of ecological maturity and human sustainability by establishing local cycles of nutrients and water: (a)
establishing balanced agriculture for local needs using agroecological methods; (b) water purification and recycling,
using ecological engineering methods; (c) recovering and preserving ecologically mature ecosystems;  establishing
local, self-sufficient units to reduce vulnerability for crashes induced by shortage of cheap energy: (a) agriculture for
energy purposes (oil, ethanol, biomass) as well as local food and feed production; (b) local production of forestry
products for building, energy, nutritional and other purposes; (c) direct capture of incoming solar radiation for heating,
drying and other purposes; (d) use of sun derivatives (as local water power, photovoltaics, animal draft) to replace
dwindling energy resources from fossil fuels and  participation in watershed planning, regional land restructuring,
agrarian reforms and Agenda 21 programs. Part of the study discusses methods for the commercial establishment of
eco-units using case studies from Sweden and Brazil. Bio-energy production is not the unique concern, size and
products depend on ecosystem characteristics. Furthermore, raw material for bio-fuels can be different. However,
integrating bio-energy into an economic system of high self-sufficiency to provide a good standard of living with
balanced ecology is key. The study compares and discusses experience from several countries.
Future development of the electricity systems with Distributed Generation
Angel Antonio Bayod Rújula
Universidad de Zaragoza, Spain
Electrical power systems have been traditionally designed taking energy from high voltage levels, and distributing it to
lower voltage level networks. There are large generation units connected to transmission networks. In these networks
there is a bulk transport of electricity, with central coordination of the control (modulating outputs of generators).
Demand is passive and uncontrollable, connected to Distribution networks (EHV, HV or LV). Distribution systems are
also passive and, in the lower levels of voltage, radial in operation. They are designed to accept bulk power form
transmission system and distribute to customers, generally with unidirectional flows, although some are interconnected.
Load demand is continuously growing and there is a need to respond to climate change challenge (develop sustainable
electricity systems), without forgetting the need to maintain competitiveness, and the need to enhance the security of
Distributed generation is defined as generation located in or close to the demand places. Electricity is produced by using
small power technologies. They are small, modular systems that can be combined with management and storage energy
systems in order to improve the operation of the distribution system. From an environmental point of view, distributed
generation is considered clean, reliable and secure.
Within this definition are included:
- Autoproduction units (including cogeneration and the ones using residual energies).
- Facilities using non-consumable renewable energies (biomass and biofuels). Within this group a sub-classification is
defined according to the renewable energy that is used: solar energy, wind energy, geothermal energy and wave energy,
- Facilities that use nonrenewable waste energy sources (solid urban waste or others).
- Facilities of treatment and reduction of the residues of agriculture, farming and other services (treatment and reduction
of pig dung, mud and other residues).
The expected benefits of Distributed Energy Sources are: generation buses and consumption are closer, reduction of the
transmission and distribution losses, promotion of renewable energies, increased network asset utilisation, deferring of
investments in lines and classical power stations, enhanced reliability and security, etc.
In the future there will be a large number of small generators connected to the distribution networks.
If efficient planning and an optimum operation of the grids to which the generation plants are connected are achieved, it
will be possible for DGs to play a greater role in the future, contributing to the improvement of the energy efficiency
and to a reduction in the distribution cost and also to an improvement in the power quality.
But distributed generation can also give some technical problems: embedded generation can cause an inversion in the
energy flow, i.e. energy is sent to the high voltage level. This fact can affect the quality and stability of the network and
requires a change in the operation and protection of the system. In other cases, the quality and stability of the network
can be affected.
When distributed electricity supply of Renewable energies and CHP (combined heat and power) surpasses a particular
level this may require adaptation to the planning and operational management of the electricity network infrastructure,
changes in the organisation of system services and modifications of technical standards and authorisation procedures.
Article 14/7 of the EU Directive says: “When planning the development of the distribution network, energy
efficiency/demand-side management measures and/or distributed generation that might supplant the need to upgrade or
replace electricity capacity shall be considered by the distribution system operator”.
Efficient integration of a rising share of DG requires network innovations (in areas of system design/topology and
system operation and control, including storage). A development of active distribution network management, from
centralised to more distributed system management is needed. Information, communication, control infrastructures will
be needed with increase complexity of system management.
In future developments, this distributed generation will be connected to active distribution networks (EHV, HV and
LV), and the total control will be coordinated. This integration will enhance the value of DG and Demand Side
Management. Generation and grid constitute one system.
Some innovative concepts as Virtual Power Plants and MicroGrids will be presented in the final paper.
Thermodynamic optimization in industrial and practical systems
Electronic address: email@example.com; http://www. ichip.pw.edu.pl
Faculty of Chemical and Process Engineering
Warsaw University of Technology
PL 00-645, 1 Waryńskiego Street, Warsaw, Poland
We present a thermodynamic approach to simulation and modeling of nonlinear energy converters, in particular radiation
engines. Basic thermodynamic principles lead to expressions for the converter’s efficiency and limiting generated work
in terms of the entropy production. The real work is a cumulative effect obtained in a system of a resource fluid, a
sequence of engines, and an infinite bath. Nonlinear modeling involves methods of dynamic optimization such as
maximum principles, variational calculus and dynamic programming. The primary result of the optimal modeling is a
finite-rate generalization of the classical, reversible work potential (exergy). The generalized work function depends on
thermal coordinates and a dissipation index, h, in fact the Hamiltonian of the optimization problem of minimum entropy
production. The generalized work function implies stronger bounds on work delivered or supplied than the reversible
work potential. Role of the thermodynamic reasoning, nonlinear analyses and dynamic optimization (variational
methods) is underlined. As an example of the kinetic work limit in a nonlinear system, generalized exergy of radiation
fluid is estimated in terms of finite rates, quantified by Hamiltonian h.
Keywords: thermal efficiency, thermal machines, entropy production, radiation engines
CO2-Capture with liquid and fixed Amine-Solvents
K. Brechtel, H. Thorwarth, G. Scheffknecht
Institute of Process Engineering and Power Plant Technology (IVD)
Pfaffenwaldring 23, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
Phone: +49 (0)711/685 63487
Fax: +49 (0)711/685 63491
Today it is known that one major reason for global warming is the anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases
(especially CO2). With the ratification of the Kyoto-Protocol the European Union, and especially Germany, assured a
reduction of greenhouse gases. One of these dangerous gases for the atmosphere is CO2, which is emitted in
considerable amounts from power stations. For lowering the CO2 Emissions and in consideration of the greenhouse
effect, the European Union promotes the research in CO2-Capture and Storage. For this, several projects for pre- and
post-combustion capture and also in new technologies are running all over Europe.
The best developed technology at the moment is CO2-capture using amine scrubbers. The major disadvantage of this
technology is the reduction of the power plant energy efficiency up to 13%-points, caused by the consumption of steam
for amine regeneration. To reduce the required regeneration energy new amines or new mixtures of amines (e.g.
primary and tertiary amine) are developed. The advantage of primary amines is the fast reaction with CO2, the
disadvantage is the high energy need for regeneration. Tertiary amines need less energy for regeneration, but react very
slow with CO2. This is why tertiary amines are activated by adding primary amines. But the disadvantage of liquid
amine-mixtures is the higher regeneration energy consumption, caused by the primary amine.
To avoid this it is possible to use mixtures of fixed primary and tertiary amines. Therefore experiments with ion
exchanger (fixed primary amine) have been carried out at IVD. These tests show that it is possible to capture CO2 from
gas phase by the use of an ion exchanger and that it is possible to regenerate the exchanger with tertiary amines. With
these results a new capture process will be developed at IVD. The major advantage of this process will be the possibility
to separate the two used amines (primary and tertiary) for the absorption and desorption process. With this the
advantage of the primary amine can be used at absorption (fast reaction) and the advantage of the tertiary amine at
desorption (low energy demand for regeneration).
The presentation will include some general information about CO2-capture with aminescrubbers e.g. used solvents,
energy requirement and influence on power plants. The second part of the presentation will show results from
experiments using ion-exchanger, carried out in laboratory tests.
Identification of Environmental Burden linked with Carbon Capture and Storage
O. Mayer-Spohn, M. Blesl, U. Fahl, A. Voß
University of Stuttgart, Germany
The scientific discussion on Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is characterised mainly by issues of technical
feasibility, cost and risk evaluation, but scarcely by environmental considerations. Because CCS constitutes a
contribution to climate protection, it is primarily regarded as entirely positive measure for the environment.
However the mitigation of green house gases by capturing CO2 from power plant emissions comes along with
additional emissions and resource use from facilities for carbon capture and transportation.
How significant is this additional environmental burden of CCS compared to the benefit of captured CO2? Does CCS
still constitute an overall benefit for climate and environment or does it promote climate protection at price of
considerable other environmental burden and thus shift problems?
This presentation shows how the approach of Life Cycle Assessment is used to investigate and evaluate the
environmental performance of CCS and to highlight the dimension of linked environmental burdens. Exemplarily one
CCS path, pre-combustion CO2 capture in an IGCC power plant and following CO2 transportation until the point of
storage in an underground formation is investigated. Sensitivity analyses including a comparison of different means of
transportation (pipeline, ship, lorry, train) show the dimension and relevance of environmental burden along the CCS
chain. All results are shown in contrast to electricity generation in an IGCC power plant without CO2 capture.
Financial mechanisms for heat sector projects in Latvia
Peteris Shipkovs, Galina Kashkarova, Kristina Lebedeva
Energy Resources Laboratory, Institute of Physical Energetics
The paper presents Boiler house and District Heating System Reconstruction Project realization and financial options
that was used in this project.
In Latvia approximately 70% of the heat supply is provided by municipal DH systems and about 60% of the dwellings
are connected to these systems.
Due to the relatively large forest areas and close-by supply of wood, conversion from oil to wood has taken place over
the last decade. In 2004 20% of the energy used for heat production are based on wood, 69% on natural gas and 8% on
heavy fuel. There are approx. 3,000 boiler houses and up to 1,500 boiler houses used biomass. In many cases these
boiler houses are of small scale with low efficiency.
Several financing mechanisms are used in Latvia for heat sector projects. The most important are as follows:
1. Commercial loans – usually municipalities guarantee for the loan by the municipal budget.
2. Involvement of a private investor using take-or-take contract for the produced heat (Ludza Boiler house and
District Heating System Reconstruction Project).
3. State support scheme – partly grant from the state budget through the state investment program.
4. European structural funds, for the heat sector The European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) is relevant.
5. Other donor financing and bundling of small projects (United Nations Development Program, UNDP and
Latvian Environmental Investment Fund, LEIF).
Ludza is a city with 6,000 citizens located in the eastern part of Latvia.
Involvement of a private investor using take-or-take contract for the produced heat was successfully Ludza Boiler house
and District Heating System Reconstruction Project.
The project involved conversion of the boiler house from heavy fuel oil to wood chips and diesel for peak load. The
Dutch company ESSENT Baltic invested in the reconstruction of the boiler house. ESSENS Baltic entered a take-or-pay
contract with the municipality. The municipal was responsible for the payment in this Project and had to collect
payments from the consumers.
The most important results of the Ludza project are presented in the paper such as: it is an advantage that the
municipality does not have to take loan for financing of the plant because loans with municipality guarantee are limited;
5,000 inhabitants receive environmentally friendly heating services; CO2 emissions are reduced by 80%, saving 11,200
Energy Rebound and Economic Growth
Reinhard Madlener1 and Blake Alcott2
1 Centre for Energy Policy and Economics (CEPE), ETH Zurich, 8032 Zurich, Switzerland.
Corresponding author. Tel. +41 44 632 06 52, Fax. +41 44 632 1050, Email. firstname.lastname@example.org
2 Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1QA, U.K.
The more efficient use of energy, ceteris paribus, is postulated to lead to greater, not lower, consumption of energy.
Building on the work of Jevons (1865), Khazzoom (1980), Brookes (1978, 1990, 2000, 2004) and Saunders (1992,
2000), a production function is offered modelling technological energy efficiency increases, input as well as output
prices, consumer behaviour with elastic price/demand reactions, marginal consumers, and new outputs previously
uneconomical at the lower level of technological efficiency level. The theory that rebound is greater than unity predicts
the observed real-world correlation between rising consumption and rising efficiency of energy use, however difficult it
may be to define a precise metric for the latter. The opposing theory, that rebound is less than unity and that efficiency
increases therefore cause less consumption than before, requires on the other hand extremely strong factors that do
account for observed economic growth. The paper’s hypothesis is shown to be supported by neo-classical economics’
demonstration, going back to Solow (1956, 1957) that labour and capital as absolute magnitudes account for only a
small proportion of economic growth. It is suggested that matter or natural resources, seen as mass/energy by Ayres
(1978), among others, is indispensable to production functions.
Keywords: energy efficiency, economic scale, rebound, backfire.
Energy efficiency targets using tradable certificates.
Microeconomic aspects and lessons from Italy
Fondazione per l’Ambiente
Demand side management (DSM) and energy efficiency (EE) policies have a primary role in the main scheme of
European strategies for the environment, as stated in the new proposal by the European Commission for a Directive on
the promotion of end-use efficiency and energy services (December 2005).
The role of DSM and EE policies is considered particularly relevant for the actual implementation of the Kyoto
Protocol and for the general reduction of the impact on scarce natural resources.
To achieve sound environmental objectives governments can use many different instruments, ranging from standard to
subsidisation/taxation approaches. In the EE field Italy has decided to accompany traditional policy instruments with an
innovative one based on tradable certificates that came fully into force in January 2005 with two national decrees
(Ministry of Industry, July 2004) and a few specific regulatory acts from the Italian Regulatory Authority for Electricity
and Gas (December 2004).
The innovative policy is based on the institution of a market of EE certificates, the so-called “White Certificates”
(WhC). WhC potentially represents, with respect to standard instruments, a better incentive to start EE projects. They
are based, through of a fairly articulated system, on the transfer of financial resources from obliged subjects (the large
distributors, probably characterized by relatively high marginal costs for each unit of saved energy) to non-obliged
subjects (who may be favoured by better micro-economic conditions to attain marginal energy savings). This principle
may also lead to the minimization of the overall social cost.
Outline of the presentation
The paper deals with three main issues:
1- the microeconomic aspects of energy saving and energy efficiency, the working of ideal markets and the
relevant market failures;
2- the effect of corrective policies like the Italian scheme (obliged subjects plus tradable certificates)
3- the problems in the enforcement phase and an experience of policy-accompanying in Regione Piemonte by
Fondazione per l’Ambiente, aimed to ease EE projects and WhC market at regional level
International comparisons are shortly given in order to envisage the international context.
The exosomatic evolution of human kind, power and the importance of bioeconomics
Can Masdeu, Antic Camí de St.Llatzer s/n, 08042 Barcelona
ICTA – UAB Barcelona
Phone: ++39 686906791; e-mail: email@example.com
Lotka’s ideas of the exsomatic evolution of human kind was interpreted by Georgescu-Roegen with reference to the rise
of social conflict, the distribution of political power, access to natural resources and to decision making power. Also, in
physical terms, it implies the questioning of the supposed 4th law of thermodynamics according to which material
recycling is not possible. Georgescu-Roegen conceived the actual economic process based on industrial and on artificial
exosomatic processes. Tsuchida and Murota conceived the feasibility of material recycling under “well preserved water
and soil” [Tsuchida and Murota, 1985]. In fact all biological processes recycle matter efficiently, in a self-organized
way. In this paper I conceive the importance of an economic process based on living and self-organized processes. This
is considered a matter of bioeconomics.
Keywords: exosomatic evolution, endosomatic energy, bioeconomics, permaculture
Natural environment and economic growth: looking for the energy-EKC
Tommaso Luzzati e Marco Orsini
Most of the debate on the Environmental Kuznets Curve has focused on pollutants like suspended particulate matter,
SO2, NOx, CO2. In this paper, we will focus on energy (primary energy use). Energy is not taken as “the indicator” of
either human pressure or impact on nature. No single indicator can meaningfully represent a set of so greatly
heterogeneous effects. Energy is chosen firstly since it allows avoiding the tricky issue of substitution of old with new
pollutants. Secondly, and more importantly, the influence of energy use is pervasive, not limited to direct effects.
Actually, energy makes it possible to extract and move huge amounts of matter; huge material throughput is at the root
of the current environmental degradation.
A brief look at the narratives and models for the EKC helps us to set a framework where primary energy use (total
rather than per capita) is compared with per capita GDP. We focus on the period 1971-2003 by using both aggregate
data for the world and a cross-national (113 countries) time series panel of data. Our investigation of the energy EKC
firstly treats world as a unique country (so to neutralise trade effects). We move then at country level. After a brief
description of the main trends and patterns, we test the energy-EKC hypothesis with non-parametric regressions and
traditional panel data analysis with different model specifications.
Our results are as follows. For the world as a whole, the relationship looks positive and linear. After 1989, data suggest
a lower (but still positive) slope. At disaggregated level, patterns are very different among countries. In most cases,
they can be approximated by a positive linear relationship, with very heterogeneous slopes and intercepts. Only some
“oil producers” and poor countries that experienced wars show negative slopes. If any regularity is to be found, one can
say that in “rich” countries the heterogeneity of patterns is lower than in poor countries. The same applies for the
elasticity of energy to GDPpc. In conclusion, data do not support the hypothesis of an energy-EKC.
Keywords: Environmental Kuznets Curve, Energy, non parametric estimates
Peak Oil: Where do we stand in 2006?
Many claims and misinterpretations have accumulated around the concept of "peak oil", a subject that becomes less
understood as it becomes more popular. This communication tries to provide an assessment of the situation with oil and
other fossil fuels production as it stands in 2006. In general, the production of mineral resources can be interpreted
according to dynamic socio-economical models which use the geological data as an input, or derive it from data fitting.
Several models have been developed and tested, the earliest ones where the empirical one proposed already in the1950s
by Marion King Hubbert, followed by the studies performed in the 1960's by Jay Forrester at MIT and explored in
detail in the famous study "The Limits to Growth" of 1972. From that time, models have been refined and improved.
There is a general agreement that the production of a mineral resource tends to peak and starts to decline well before its
complete physical depletion. Most analysts place the peak for oil within the first decade of 21st century, although some
see it taking place at a later time. Oil is not the only resource about to peak, other fossil resources such as gas, coal and
uranium all are at various stages of their depletion curve. Little is known about the consequences on society and
economy of the peaking of major energetic resources, but also in this field dynamic models may provide some insight.
The transition from fossil to solar energy
University of Torino, Italy
The energy needs do not follow from axioms of the economic laws, are not a "dictum" of science, or a necessity of
technology. First of all the energy needs are extremely uneven (orders of magnitude) from one nation to another, from a
social group to another. The consequences of such inequalities are not in the direction of human progress but rather in
the retrograde pathway. We may understand the present scenario of the fossil energy consumption in the frame of
history and in particular history of the technological opportunities. In tact the rapid growth of such opportunities has
molded the fabric of societies in abrupt ways. The phenomenological result is a fragile body with poor inner structure,
mainly constituted by few producers and many consumers. The millenary tradition of acquisition of tools, resources,
and the relatively slow adaptation of society moving from an equilibrium state to the next has been violated: the
consumer's society has negligible feedbacks, therefore is unstable. Injecting additional energy can only make the
collapse worse. At the present time the control of the energy sources (any kind of source) is intolerably violent, and is
the indication of a shortage of thought rather than a shortage of energy. Science, philosophy, have been left behind,
almost non existent within the cheap logic of growth. This talk is a little step in the direction of scientific knowledge.
The future challenges for “clean coal technologies”.
Joining efficiency increase and pollutant emission control
Alessandro Franco, Ana R. Diaz,
Dipartimento d’Energetica “L. Poggi”,
Università di Pisa
Via Diotisalvi 2, 56126 PISA – ITALY
The growing energy demand of the developing countries coupled with the need in significant reduction in greenhouse
gases emission (GHG) are the challenging tasks of future energy policies. Indeed, nowadays, the energy problems are
based on the fact that no combination of carbon-free energies is currently capable of replacing fossil fuels at the main
source of the world’s primary energy requirements. So far the perspectives for the expansion of carbon-free energies are
not realistic due to technological and resources limitation. Certainly, while new renewable technologies are confined by
their intensive land used and water requirements, coal represents at the present about 70% of the world’s proven fossil
fuel resources and still provides about a 30% of the world’s electricity. Moreover, coal is also the more delocalized
resource and it has the lower cost among the different fossil fuels. Thus, it is a matter of fact that coal is likely to remain
one of the main sources of primary energy for a long time and it will play a strategic role in the medium- long- term
energy production systems.
Electric power from coal has been predominantly generated in pulverized coal-fired power plants, where hot products of
coal combustion exchange heat with steam in a boiler in order to produce work in a steam turbine. Due to
thermodynamic (mainly the use of water) and metallurgic constraints, the efficiency of such plants is rather low.
Modern coal-fired power plants obtain an efficiency of about 38- 40% (based on the Lower Heating Value of the fuel,
LHV) operating at 250-300 bar and at maximum temperature of 530-560 °C. But also they are characterized by rather
high carbon dioxide emissions (about 800 g/KWh of electric energy produced). Higher efficiencies can be achieved by
further increasing steam parameters; for example for supercritical boilers operating at pressures around 350 bar and
temperatures of 700 °C efficiency is expected to be around 47% (LHV). Nevertheless, the crucial question about the
future of coal technologies remains the perspective of a considerable reduction of the CO2 emissions. The aim is the
possibility of reaching the CO2 emission levels of the Natural gas combined cycle plants whose emissions laying
around 350-400 g/kWh.
To overcome these barriers it is necessary to develop a new generation of advanced coal conversion technologies,
known today as “clean coal technologies” which provide an effective conversion of coal into electricity by employing
the gas turbine cycle. The most promising are the Integrated Coal Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) and the
Externally-Fired Combined Cycle (EFCC) power plants. The development of those technologies would match a good
efficiency increase with an adequate control technology for CO2 emissions. Furthermore, The IGCC and the
Pressurized bed combustion (PFBC) represent the state-of-the-art technology and provide electric power with an
efficiency of about 41-46% LHV efficiency. However, they have a high level of complexity and higher equipment and
maintenance costs, resulting in severe economic penalties. The EFCC, being a very promising technology, also needs
further technical developments in its high temperature heat exchanger for Gas combustion-Air.
The perspectives for a correct use of coal as energy source are based on the success into the energy market of “clean
coal technologies”, where good thermodynamic performance of the power plant are joined with a control of pollutant
emissions (mainly CO2 emissions). This is an objective not easy to be reached for different reasons.
On the one hand coal is not a uniform source due to its extremely variable composition; this made difficult to reach a
standardization of advanced technologies that can be very sensitive to the different compositions. On the other hand the
coal combustion produces structurally more pollutants that the other fossil fuel since it contains mainly carbon as
reactive component (turning to CO2) and sulphur (turning to SOX) but very few hydrogen (turning to H2O). From the
aforesaid considerations, the aim of the work in object is to discuss about the perspectives of the particular field of clean
coal technologies starting from an exhaustive analysis of them, from the point of view of thermodynamic efficiency and
emission control and of their connection. In particular three main strategies will be discussed and analyzed in order to
mitigate the CO2 emissions produced by coal technologies.
The first strategy is the control of CO2 emissions from existing coal fired power plants through end-of-the-pipe
separation processes. The most suitable technology appears to be the chemical absorption technology, which is based on
the CO2 concentration and its partial pressure at the capture point. This method has been widely analyzed in literature,
been the most applied one. Under an energetic point of view this technology requires an great among of energy to
achieve the CO2 capture, transport and storage, having a great impact on the thermodynamic performance of the plant
that seriously decrease power generation efficiency. Economically talking, the development of this technology without
much modification to the plants can be a transitory “inexpensive” short-term solution for existing plants.
The second strategy is guided by the need of more integrated capture technologies into the thermodynamic of the
system and therefore less energy intensive. The use of new conversions technologies where the carbon can be removed
at a convenient stage of the process includes advanced coal power plants as the above mentioned IGCC. In these
integrated technologies the capture can take place before the combustion, with a fuel gas under high pressure and
temperature conditions, therefore the capture devices are smaller and accordingly less costly. Furthermore, the capture
energy required in integrated technologies can be taken from possible marginal losses of the plant. Also oxy-fuel closed
or semi-closed technologies are been proposed, the principle O2/CO2 is based on the oxygen production (95% purity or
higher) for the combustion instead of air where the working fluid is basically CO2, and the exhaust gases are a very
concentrated stream of CO2 and H2O. Under these conditions CO2 can be sequestrated “more easily” since it is not in
mixture with other gases usually present in the combustion.
The most suitable separation technology must be selected based on the type of process and the operation conditions
where the CO2 is removed. Apart from the well-known separation technologies like physical, chemical
absorption/adsorption, different new capture technologies are under study, such as membranes separation (requiring
further development and testing) or cryogenic separation (a very energy-intensive technology).
The third option is represented by the direct decarbonisation of the fuel; this includes technologies where the carbon is
removed to produce hydrogen that can be used in advanced gas turbine plants derived from Steam Turbine Injected Gas
technology. At present this strategy seems to be the less convenient one, but some further investigations are necessary.
Fuelling the Future: Options for Australia’s Transition to a Low Carbon Economy
Barney Foran* and David Crane§
* Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.
SunWheel Technologies Limited, Minchinhampton, United Kingdom, http://www.sunwheeltech.org.uk/
This study tests Australia’s transition from a fossil fuelled economic system to one based on woody biomass, and in
particular one where bio-alcohols and bio-oils replace petrol and diesel. It seeks to concurrently resolve the looming
policy dilemmas of transport fuel security, greenhouse emissions, landscape degradation, trade balances and regional
renewal by re-clothing substantial portions of Australia’s farmed lands with wood crops that underpin a carbon neutral
transport fuels cycle. The current debate on ‘ethanol from sugar and grain’ is a small part of the transition tested but is
articulated (ie the current debate) with such a marginal perspective, that it may not have much effect on either fuel
security or greenhouse emissions.
This study finds that it is feasible to underpin a substantial proportion of Australia’s transport fuel cycle with a wood
feedstock planted on 25 to 50 million hectares of Australia’s tamed lands. It may be possible to do this and maintain
most agricultural production around the current level by increasing the intensity of production. However the transition
may be less risky if agricultural production is lessened commensurate with product quality increases that maintain
financial yields. It is possible to maintain rates of national economic productivity and give large decreases in
greenhouse gas emissions, while undergoing the transition to a transport fuel cycle with a lower greenhouse intensity.
The core technological concept behind a successful transition rests on concepts such the ‘biomass cascade’ and ‘energy-
plexes’. The former underpins a future world where many industrial and fuel feedstocks are supplied by crops, trees and
even algae. The latter includes concepts such as ‘distributed energy systems’ and in this case is focused on regional
energy factories producing liquid fuels, electricity and a range of by-products. A growing Australian economy with fuel
self sufficiency would eventually require many hundreds of these ‘energy-plexes’ and bring to regional Australia the
development stimulus required for its re-invigoration. It should be noted that the transformation processes behind these
energy-plexes could also be fuelled by black and brown coal backed up by geo-sequestration of carbon dioxide. This
study can contribute towards the discussion of whether a biomass-based or a fossil-based economy is preferable, but it
does not make that decision.
The study also tests the feasibility of several different pathways and technologies towards a renewable electricity
system. It finds that many of these are feasible even if their capital cost is two to three times today’s levels to provide
storage and management systems which buffer variability. A similar outcome has been found for several renewable
technologies especially windpower in a continental scale study undertaken for the CSIRO Energy Transformed
program. However in the current state of enumeration, these transitions can decrease rates of economic productivity for
two decades while the fossil fuelled infrastructure is being replaced.
There are many partial solutions to a successful energy economy in 2050 and selections of these have been grouped into
‘blue’, ‘green’ and ‘technicolour’ scenarios which attack the problem respectively from a ‘mostly technical’, ‘mostly
environmental’ or ‘use what works’ perspective. Each scenario is imminently feasible within the confines of the
analytical approach used, but each brings with it a particular set of uncertainties which could reduce the scenario’s
effectiveness e.g. the risk of carbon dioxide venting from sequestered storages in the ‘blue’ scenario, or a drought
driven lower biomass productivity in the ‘green’ scenario.
Many caveats must be applied to the outcomes of the study and in particular, its scale and its modelling methodology.
The scale of the study is national and the technologies tested seek to change national outcomes over the next five
decades and possibly will not make sense in a sector by sector sense over short timeframes. At a landscape scale,
developing a large biomass resource will affect regional hydrology and therefore water runoff.
This study suggests the effect is small if marginal arable lands are developed first, but small scale catchment modelling
must be undertaken to give robust analyses of this. The modelling methodology is based on the physical numeriare of
embodied energy as the prime determinant of national function, rather than economic concepts of productivity. Thus the
feasibility of key study outcomes must be tested within appropriate social and financial analytical frameworks before
they are seen as robust in an industry or a policy sense.
Current Situation and Perspectives of Polygeneration Systems
Weidou Nia , Lingmei Wanga,b, Zheng Lia
Department of Thermal Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, P. R. China
College of Engineering, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030013, P. R. China
Polygeneration considered from the point of view of comprehensive optimization, is a highly flexible and cross-sector
integrated system of resources, energy and environment. Using coal, petrocoke or heavy oil residues with high sulfur
content as feedstock, syngas (the main components being CO and H2) is produced through oxygen-blown gasification.
Syngas has several uses. Polygeneration could increase the adaptability and robustness of energy-service companies in
the marketplace, providing them with flexibility in meeting demands in different market segments while achieving
lower production costs and reducing the risks of reliance on a single feedstock. In addition, with the possibility of
achieving high conversion efficiencies and low polluting emissions and facilitating carbon capture, they could deliver
high-quality energy services in a cost-effective way while meeting stringent environmental requirements. The current
situation of polygeneration systems is analyzed with special focus on energy flows, integration mechanisms, ,
performance, status of key technology of polygeneration in China, etc. At the end, based on international and national
development, a perspective of polygeneration system that includes theory, key technology and policy is presented. As a
case study, fuel (methanol) and electricity production in a polygeneration system is analyzed by means of energy,
exergy, thermoeconomic, and emergy analysis, integrated with Life Cycle Assessment, Life Cycle Cost, and industrial
ecology considerations. The relevance of polygeneration to environmental protection and better use of resources is
Framing CO2 in the European Car Sector.
Simulation of Technology and Regulation Driven Scenarios
Eni S.p.A., Via F. Maritano, 26, 20097 San Donato Milanese (Milano) Italy
Oil products dominate energy use in the mobility sector which is responsible for a significant share of overall CO2
emissions. In Europe, 737 Mt (26% of 2789 Mt of CO2 produced by anthropogenic activities in 2003) derive from
transports: 93%, i.e. 682 Mt, are ascribed to the road mode.
Due to the stoichiometric relation between CO2 emissions and the fuel that is burnt in the engine’s combustion
chambers, CO2 emissions from road transport reflect the number of vehicles, driver behaviour, the technological level
of cars, just to name a few elements that influence the road mobility demand - both in qualitative and quantitative terms.
Automobile fuel economy standards have proven to be one of the most effective tools in controlling oil demand and
greenhouse gas emissions from cars and any vehicle in general. The European automotive industry is currently
committed to reducing new passenger vehicle CO2 emissions through a voluntary agreement with the European
Factors like engine technology and fuel evolution, consumer choice, the length of implementation lag of prevailing
legislative or fiscal measures that influence vehicle purchase and use, can be simulated in order to understand how and
when they will affect fuel demand and any resulting CO2 emissions mitigation. Analyses, from a dynamic point of
view, of such a heterogeneous framework are becoming increasingly puzzling and simulations can be extremely useful
to capture the main trends.
Toward Integrated Assessment of Technology and Policy Alternatives for
Heui-Seok Yi and Bhavik R. Bakshi
Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 USA
E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com
Successful development and execution of industrial products and processes requires consideration of
economic, environmental and social factors that span multiple spatial and temporal scales. For example,
engineering decisions are made at a fine scale of individual equipment and process, while its implications
are felt at much coarser scales of the economy and ecosystems. In contrast, policies are made at a coarse
scale, but its effects are felt at finer scales. Most methods for technology assessment and policy analysis
tend to focus on one primary scale. For example, Life Cycle Assessment focuses mainly on the scale
of the value chain (supply and demand chains), while Economic Input-Output and General and Partial
Equilibrium Models focus on a macroeconomic scale. Most existing research on modeling the relationship
between the economy and environment has focused on energy use.
The main goals of this talk are to motivate the need for integrated multiscale modeling of economic, industrial
and environmental systems, and to discuss potential approaches for satisfying this need. An approach for
integrating economic input-output models with engineering process models will be described. Illustrative
examples based on this model will demonstrate its use for studying the effect of carbon taxes
across scales. An economic input-output (IO) model is used to calculate price changes, and a fundamental
model based on thermodynamic conservation laws is utilized for a production plant. The results by the
proposed method are compared with those by traditional engineering optimization approaches that ignore
price changes in other sectors of the economy. New challenges and areas of further research will be
identified, including opportunities for integrating thermodynamic analysis with economic modeling. A general
multiscale stochastic modeling framework will be proposed for reaching these goals.
A multi-scale integrated assessment of the energy sector in Romania
Raluca Iorgulescu Polimeni
Economics Department, Siena College, 515 Loudon Road, Loudonville, New York 12211, USA, firstname.lastname@example.org
John M. Polimeni
Albany College of Pharmacy, 106 New Scotland Avenue, Albany, New York 12208-3492, USA, email@example.com
Using the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal Metabolism (MSIASM) approach and information from various
sources for social indicators and economic data this paper will examine the energy sector of Romania. As an economy
that is transitioning from a communist command economy to a market economy, Romania provides an interesting
example of a structural change of an economy, particularly for the energy sector. During the communist period,
Romania’s economy, like most other communist countries, relied heavily on the industrial sector, which was very
energy intensive. After the 1989 Revolution and a return to a market economy, Romania moved towards a more
dynamic service sector and away from a reliance on the high energy consuming industrial sector.
This paper will use the MSIASM approach to discuss the structural changes in Romania’s economy. Furthermore,
scenarios will be conducted using the MSIASM to provide an analysis of the energy sector and to examine plausible
alternative energy sources as Romania’s economy continues its economic transformation.
Multi-Scale Integrated Assessment of Sustainability in Latin America – a comparison of
different trajectories of development for different countries
Jesus Ramos-Martin, Nina Eisenmenger, and Heinz Schandl
Recent economic transitions in Latin America’s developing economies face a different development context than those
experienced in history by today’s developed economies. The current transitions are integrated in a global economic
system where the global division of labour assigns each country a specific role. Thus, socio-economic development
within a developing country is not only dependent on internal processes, but is also strongly influenced by international
Our contribution focuses on three Latin American countries (Brazil, Venezuela, and Chile) and takes a comparative
view. We describe biophysical aspects of these economies (energy- and material throughput, use of land and time) in
order to analyse different paths of transition in socio-economic development and resource use. In history, the
agricultural sector has created the initial impulse for sustained economic growth and the shift to industrialization of
Europe. We will start the analysis in Latin American countries by identifying major trends in agricultural development
to understand the specifics of today’s economic transition.
A considerable proportion of agricultural production in South America was taken over by large companies already quite
early, around 1900, and the rural population’s choice was either to be employed in agricultural wage labour or to move
to urban centres in order to make a living.
Despite the industrialization of large parts of agricultural production, agriculture, for different reasons, failed to
generate a sufficient amount of economic added value to support industrial production and manufacturing. Instead,
international capital from foreign direct investment and loans was supporting the development of the second and third
However, structural adjustment programs as well as foreign investments (as promoted by the World Bank and the
International Monetary Fund) primarily aim at intensifying the integration of these economies into the world market,
and at enlarging production for exports. These interventions from abroad often went hand in hand with economic
liberalization characterized by weak labour regulation, by lifting of trade tariffs and by opening local markets to both
foreign capital and goods.
The exports a country specializes in depend on the available resources and on technical potentials. South America has a
long history in providing raw materials to the United States and other industrial centres, specializing in intense
extraction of natural resources from mining and agriculture for exports. In the literature, the concept of extractive
economies tries to capture the adverse effects exporting of raw-materials has on the social system and the local
households as well as on the integrity of the environment and the exploitation of resources.
Based on recent empirical data for biophysical and socio-economic aspects of development in Latin America we
identify what enables or constrains certain futures. We discuss that in order to understand the potentials for a
sustainability transition in the region we need to locate the current transition within a much older transition, namely the
fundamental change in society-nature interrelation when society’s move form agricultural metabolism to a new
Keywords: Development, Integrated Assessment, Latin America, Material Flows, Societal Metabolism, Multi-Scale
Assessing the suitability of input-output Analysis for enhancing our understanding of
potential effects of Peak-Oil
Christian Kerschnera, Klaus Hubacekb
Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona,
08193 Bellaterra, Spain. Tel 93 581 29 74, Fax: 93 581 33 31, Email: firstname.lastname@example.org
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
Input-output analysis developed from a purely economic tool to a standard approach for analyzing environment –
economy interactions and whole supply chain effects in areas such as ecological economics, life-cycle analysis and
industrial ecology. The standard Leontief type IO analysis allows analyzing the direct and indirect effects of exogenous
demand changes upon an Economy, which makes it essentially a demand-driven model. Therein it is implicitly assumed
that all necessary inputs to satisfy a given demand can and will be supplied. In other words the application of this model
is problematic if the availability of certain key inputs becomes restricted. Thus it is argued here that it is not suitable for
analyzing the phenomenon of peak oil, which was first highlighted by King Hubbert in 1956.
This paper considers one by one the suitability of three alternative modelling tools within the IO framework: supply-
driven and constrained IO models and linear programming in combination with IO modelling. The supply-driven IO
approach was brought forward by Gosh (1958) and empirically applied for resource shortages already (e.g.: Chen and
Rose 1985). However this approach was exposed as implausible by Oosterhaven (1988), as an increase in value added
(e.g.: labour) in one sector induces increases in outputs in all sectors, even in those where value added remains
unchanged. At a later stage, it was shown that the Gosh model can be reinterpreted as a price model and in fact yields
exactly the same results as the Leontief price model (Dietzenbacher 1997). However the price model is not useful to the
kind of tool we set out to encounter either, as the link to final demand is missing. Linear programming in combination
with IO analysis can be useful in order to decide which sectors are most important to maximize a predetermined goal
e.g. output or welfare. This however is more of interest as a planning tool once Peak Oil has either become reality
already or the desirability of anticipatory policies to counter its possible detrimental effects becomes widely
acknowledged. The most promising tool for our purpose, so it is argued here, is a supply constrained IO model. It is
shown how such a model can account for constraints in the supply of fossil fuels,, by taking the total output of the
petroleum sector as exogenously given. Consequently the model is applied to data for the UK economy to show the
potential effects of a peak-oil induced supply shock to the UK, followed by a cautious interpretation of the results.
Keywords: Input-Output Analysis, Supply-Driven and Supply Constrained IO Analysis, Linear Programming, Peak-Oil,
Leontief price model, systems approach.
Extended Exergy as an ecological indicator: some preliminary considerations
Department of Mechanical & Aeronautical Engineering
University of Roma 1 “La Sapienza”
The study of Very Complex systems (“VLCS”) requires a holistic approach to analyse the entire system and all of the
“external” and “internal” interactions that characterise it. The best way to approach such problems is to consider the
VCLS as an “extended” (in a sense to be specified later) thermodynamic system. The evaluation of the flows of matter
and energy sustaining a VCLS and the knowledge of the transformations therein can be used to describe the rate of
exploitation of the available natural resources. This kind of information could be an important support for both the
internal and global policy planning and resources management.
In the last decade, environmental scientists, engineers, physicists, chemists and biologists have defined, troubleshooted
and calibrated a number of “decision parameters”, called ecological indicators (EI in the following), that ought to be
used by National & International Agencies in their evaluations. In the often heated debates that arose from the
discussions about the applicability of each one of these EI, it became clear that there is the necessity of defining
ecological indicators in such a way that they may convey at the same time some quantitative and qualitative
information. This is not an easy task, and several EI have been proposed that for one reason or another lack the
necessary sharpness. This paper is concerned with one of these EI’s, Extended Exergy, which is a measure of the
irreversibility of natural and anthropogenic processes. It is argued that a material balance, per se, cannot be a good EI:
it provides a measure of the throughput of a certain sector of the society -or of the society as a whole- but it cannot
properly measure the intrinsic quality of that throughput. For example, none of the “material flow” methods can indicate
whether it is better to generate electricity by coal-fuelled or nuclear powerplants, because a “mass-flow based” EI is
unable to capture the diversity of the coal- and uranium life cycles. Also the methods based on an energy analysis
(embodied energy, emergy) are only marginally effective and even misleading in their descriptions of the inputs &
outputs of a territorial or of an industrial system, because they cannot discern between “low quality” (heat) and “high
quality” (mechanical work, electricity) energy flows. In the early ‘80es Gøran Wall and others presented the first
complete analysis of territorial system based on exergy flows that, in contrast to energetic studies, explicitly included
both First- and Second thermodynamics Law. This approach makes it possible to express any kind of system’s input,
either energetic or material, on a uniform thermodynamic scale, so that these inputs (and the corresponding outputs) can
be “normalized” and evaluated by attributing to each one of them an exact value of “work content”. It can be though
shown that exergy destruction, which is indeed a direct measure of the irreversible entropy generation of a process, is
not a completely acceptable EI, because it cannot properly account for toxicity-related chemical pollution.
Recently, an extension of classical exergy analysis called Extended Exergy Analysis (EEA) was presented by the
Author. This method seems appropriate to investigate industrial and territorial system alike, because it can compare the
physical flows of energy and matter with non-energetic quantities like capital, human labour and environmental impact
(quantified by necessary environmental remediation costs).
Models for splitting the exergy destruction into endogenous and exogenous parts
George Tsatsaronis*, Tatiana Morosuk§ and Solange Kelly
Institut für Energietechnik, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
E-mail:* email@example.com ,
The irreversibility within a component of an energy conversion system can be represented by two parts. The first part
depends on the inefficiency of the considered component and the second depends on the system structure and the
inefficiencies of the other components of the overall system. This fact was described by many authors, however missing
aspects of the theory did not allow the division of the irreversibility into the above described parts.
The total exergy destruction occurring in a component can be split into two parts: (a) endogenous exergy destruction
due exclusively to the component being considered and (b) exogenous exergy destruction caused by inefficiencies with
the remaining components of the overall system. The endogenous part of exergy destruction in a component within a
system is the exergy destruction that occurs in the component when all other components of the overall system have an
ideal performance (exergetic efficiency of 100 %). The exogenous part of exergy destruction is the difference between
total and endogenous exergy destruction. Such splitting of the total exergy destruction improves the accuracy of exergy
analysis, improves our understanding of the thermodynamic inefficiencies, and facilitates exergoeconomic optimization.
The paper will discuss various approaches for calculating the endogenous and exogenous parts of the total exergy
destruction. The advantages, disadvantages and restriction for applications associated with each approach will be
Eco-Exergy: Reductionistic or Holistic Approaches
Dipartimento di Chimica Fisica, University of Venice, Italy
Brian D. Fath
Biology Department, Towson University, Towson, MD 21212 USA
We explore the historical development of exergy in ecology, highlighting its differences from that in engineering, as
well as speak to the limitations of the current ecological formulation and provide direction for future work. As a
foundational thermodynamic property regarding the amount of useful work available in a system, exergy has found
application in analyzing ecosystems. In particular, Exergy Degradation and Exergy Storage have been used as
ecological orientors and total exergy as an ecosystem indicator. The difficulty is defining what exactly one means by
exergy of a living system. The primary differences between ecological exergy (now referred to as eco-exergy) and
engineering exergy deal with the reference state and the consideration of organizational contributions. Regarding the
first issue, rather than thermodynamic equilibrium, eco-exergy uses the system at the same temperature and pressure but
without life (i.e., the inorganic primordial soup) as a reference state. Furthermore, in addition to the strictly
thermodynamic work, eco-exergy includes information contained in living material. In other words, a certain mass of
dead organic material can do less work than the same amount of living material. Currently, the amount of
“informational” work is calculated based on the genetic complexity of the organism, but this is a fluid area of research.
Here, we suggest the inclusion of network structure as an information contributor to provide a more holistic accounting
of the how organisms are embedded in their system.
Accounting the Earth’s mineral capital for the most demanded minerals in the industry
Amaya Martínez (*), Antonio Valero, Inmaculada Arauzo and Alicia Valero
Fundación CIRCE. Center for Research of Energy Resources and Consumptions. Universidad de Zaragoza. María de
Luna, 3. 50018 Zaragoza. Spain. Phone: +34 976 76 18 63 Fax: +34 976 73 20 78
* Corresponding author: firstname.lastname@example.org
Earth’s mineral resources have been previously evaluated(1) in physical units using the concept of the exergetic
replacement cost. This methodology is based on the thermodynamic evaluation of the minimum exergy needed to
produce all mineral resources under the physical and chemical conditions that make them useful. The reference
environment(2) taken is a thermodynamically dead planet where all materials have reacted, dispersed and mixed.
Interesting results were published by Antonio Valero, Lidia Ranz and Edgar Botero under the title “An exergetic
assessment of natural mineral capital: reference environment, a thermodynamic model for a degraded earth”.
The real physical unit cost of a mineral was defined as the relationship between the energy invested in the real process
of obtaining it and the minimum energy required if the process were reversible (that is, its exergy). Results obtained for
the 42 evaluated minerals show that the exergy unit cost is tens or even hundreds of times grater than its exergy content.
These results allow us to range minerals according to their exergy cost.
The described methodology has been now applied to the main mineral substances that are commercially exploited.
Substances such as chrome are generally used in the industrial processes as Chromite (FeCr2O4); Manganese is
usually exploited as Silicomanganese (SiMn) and Ferromanganese (FeMn); or fluor, whose main application is under its
fluorhydric acid (HCl) form.
In this paper the exergy cost of several representative substances for the industry will be evaluated.
1) Botero, E. (2000) Valoración exergética de recursos naturales, minerales, agua y combustibles fósiles. Tesis
doctoral. Departamento de Ingeniería Mecánica. Universidad de Zaragoza.
(2) Szargut, J.; Valero, A.; Stanek, W.; Valero D., A. (2005) Towards an international legal reference environment.
Presented for ECOS 2005. Trondheim, Norway.
Thermodynamics-based indicators as tools for evaluating sustainability of land-based
aquaculture in Central African Republic
I.Beiso a,*, R.Pastres b, A.Palla c, P.Letizia c
School for Advanced Studies in Venice Foundations, Island of San Servolo, Venice, Italy.
Department of Physical Chemistry, Universita` di Venezia, Dorsoduro 2137, Venice, Italy.
Ingegneria Senza Frontiere di Genova. Via Dodecaneso, Genova Italy.
In recent years in developing countries aquaculture has assumed an important economic and social role for local
communities, as it can provide food, income and employment opportunities. Nevertheless, aquaculture, like other
activities that use natural resources, often causes a deterioration of the supporting environment, as well as some
conflicts between aquaculture operators and local population.
In order to be sustainable, acquaculture activities should take into account the role of ecosystem resources, considering
also economic aspects.
This paper presents a preliminary analysis, aimed at assessing the sustainability of aquaculture activities on the Pama’
river, Central African Republic and at suggesting improvements to the original project. This analysis was undertaken in
the framework of a pilot project, which is being developed by the local NGO (CEDIFOD) and Ingegneria Senza
Frontiere of Genova.
The analysis was conducted by quantifying the fluxes of material and energy exchange at steady state between the
aquaculture system and the surrounding environment in terms of two thermodynamics-based indicators, Emergy and
Exergy. These indicators allow one to take into account both the quantity and quality of energy and, therefore, to
compare the environmental and antropogenic fluxes.
The study was carried out by using site-specific environmental data, which were collected in the framework of this
research project, and information about the structure of the farm and the hausbandry practises, based on the farm design.
Though incomplete, this data set permitted to estimate the themodynamic indicators, thus demonstrating the
applicability of the approach here proposed also in developing countries. These indicators were compared with those
relative to the analysis of a semi-natural extensive aquaculture farm in the Figheri basin in the Lagoon of Venice, Italy,
in order to evaluate the sustainability of the farm.
Despite the different characteristics of the two situations, the comparison provided usesul insights for assessing the
sustainability of the acquaculture project in Central African Republic.
A systemic water quality model of Mogi-Guaçu river in SP, Brazil
Marlei Roling Scariot and Enrique Ortega
Postal address: FEA - Unicamp, Caixa Postal 6121 CEP 13.083-862 Campinas - SP – Brasil.
Telephone number: +55(19)3788-4035, Fax number: +55(19)3788-4027, e-mail: email@example.com
A new trend in basins planning in many countries is to use water quality model simulation to evaluate the
environmental impacts. The main goals of this work are the assessment of nitrogen, phosphorus, dissolved oxygen and
biomass and to find out the origin, transport and its dynamic behavior. The proposed hydrologic model is a system
based on completely mixed reactors in series. Each volume of control is described individually by a differential
equation system from mass and energy balances. The mathematic model assumed is from the systemic diagram and
allows the dynamic simulation of the water quality indicators. The model calibration is done by means of comparison
with a historic experimental data series from CETESB (Governmental Technology Company of Environmental
Sanitation). After the model simulation, calibration and validation, scenarios were created in order to help the
understanding of the possible future conditions for the river, taking into account the alternatives of environmental
policies, populations and economic grow. The combined results from the simulation and thematic map from geographic
information system (GIS) make possible to evaluate the main cause of water quality impacts in the Mogi-Guaçu river -
Keywords: model, system, basin, water quality.
Thermodynamic approach for the assessment of sustainability of small marinas
Chiara Paoli, Paolo Vassallo * and Mauro Fabiano §
Department for the study of the territory and its resources
University of Genoa
Corso Europa 26, 16132 ITALY
The construction and the activity of a marina in the context of coastal zone could entail some potential detrimental
effects on the marine environment. Tourist pressure and small marina activities have many interactions with the
surrounding environment and a complete and integrated approach to the quality concept and to the assessment of the
level of sustainability could reveal some important aspects of the problem. It is essential to give operative and
economically adequate answers to the various demands of the parts involved in the system. For this purpose emergy
analysis, considering both environmental and economic aspects of sustainability seems to be an interesting approach.
Emergy is a thermodynamics-based function defined as the available energy of one kind previously used up directly and
indirectly to make a product or service.
In this study, the emergy concept was used to evaluate the sustainability of the activities deriving from the management
of the marinas setting up a schematic model for the application of this kind of analysis to a typical Mediterranean tourist
harbor. The approach has been applied to a study case: the “Marina degli Aregai” small harbor in the western Ligurian
coast (Italy, Northwestern Mediterranean).
The adaptability of the analysis allows further comparison with other marinas in the same geographical area to detect
the relevance of different management practices and with marinas in areas with different natural conditions to detect
changes due to the variations in external constrains.
Emergy balance assessment in three landscape units in the north Adriatic sea
Leonardo Marotta* and Diego Marazza**
* Entropia Snc and AISA Scientific Committee, firstname.lastname@example.org
** CIRSA:– University of Bologna, via S.Alberto 163 48100 Ravenna (Italy), email@example.com
Landscape is defined as a domain, but also as a system and finally as a unit. The landscape domain represents the field
in which natural and human processes take place and create the observed patterns. In the Mediterranean area geo- and
ecosystems have been deeply shaped by anthropogenic factors forming a highly diverse mosaic of disturbance-
dependent land/seascapes. In this paper landscape ecology and emergy analysis are integrated in order to assess the
emergy balance of three different landscape units at the water-land interface and at critical points in the north Adriatic
area (Italy): a coastal area, a river basin and a lagoon. The emergy of manmade protection infrastructures and the
emergy of the corresponding human activities at the land unit scale has been assessed. The method is applied with
special reference to the european water framework directive.
Energy technology perspectives 2030-2050:
A key driver for innovative policy to accelerate renewable deployment
IEA Chairman Renewable Working Party
Secure, reliable and affordable energy supplies are fundamental to economic stability and development. The threat of
disruptive climate change, the erosion of energy security and the growing energy needs of the developing world all pose
major challenges to energy decision- makers. They can only be met through innovation and the adoption of new cost-
effective technologies and better use of existing energy efficient technologies. Energy Technology Perspectives presents
status and prospects for key energy technologies and assesses their potential to make a difference by 2050. It outlines
the barriers to their implementation and measures to overcome them.
The Outlook to 2050 and the Role of Energy Technology
The world is not on course for a sustainable energy future. Oil prices at historical highs raise concerns about the long-
term supply-demand balance. CO2 emissions have increased almost 20% over the last decade. Indeed, if the future is in
line with present trends as illustrated by the World Energy Outlook 2005 Reference Scenario, CO2 emissions and oil
demand will continue to grow rapidly over the next 25 years, even taking account of energy efficiency gains and
technological progress that can be expected under existing policies. Extending this outlook beyond 2030 shows that
these worrisome trends are likely to get worse. In the Baseline scenario developed for this study, CO2 emissions will be
almost two and a half times the current level by 2050. Strong growth in transport demand will continue to put pressure
on oil supply. The carbon intensity of the world economy will increase due to greater reliance on coal for power
generation – especially in rapidly expanding developing countries with domestic resources -- and increased use of coal
in production of liquid transport fuels.
But this outlook can be changed. The Accelerated Technology Scenarios (ACTs) presented in this study demonstrate
that by employing technologies that already exist or are under development the world could be brought onto a much
more sustainable energy path. The scenarios show how energy-related CO2 emissions can be returned to their current
levels by 2050 and how the growth of oil demand can be moderated. They show that by 2050, energy efficiency
measures and renewables can reduce electricity demand by a third below the Baseline levels
The substantial changes demonstrated in the ACT Scenarios come as a result of strong energy efficiency gains in
transport, industry and buildings; of electricity supply becoming significantly de-carbonised as the power generation
mix shifts towards nuclear power, renewables, natural gas, and coal with CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS); and through
increased use of biofuels for road transport. Nevertheless, even in the ACT scenarios, fossil fuels still supply most of
the world’s energy in 2050. To that extent, this is an evolutionary rather than a revolutionary change. Demand for oil,
coal (except in one scenario) and natural gas are all greater in 2050 than they are today. Investment in conventional
energy sources thus remains essential.
The five ACT scenarios all have the same underlying assumptions about strong growth in energy service demand.. A
sixth scenario, Tech Plus, illustrates the implications of making more positive assumptions on the rate of progress for
renewables technologies as well as for advanced biofuels and hydrogen fuelled fuel cells for the transport sector.
There are large uncertainties when looking 50 years ahead. The ACT scenarios illustrate a range of possible outcomes
based on assumptions that are more or less optimistic with regard to the cost reductions achieved by technologies such
as renewables, nuclear and CCS in power generation. Yet, despite all the uncertainties, two main conclusions from the
analysis seem robust. First, technologies do exist that individually can make a significant difference over the next two to
five decades. Second, none of these technologies can make a sufficient difference on their own. A portfolio of
technologies will be needed and no promising option should be excluded. Pursuing a portfolio will also greatly reduce
the risk and potentially costs if one or more technologies fail to make the expected progress. The ACT scenarios point
to the following technologies as key elements in a portfolio adopted for a sustainable energy future.
Implications for renewable energy policies and mechanisms
This also thanks to renewable energy, which has made very significant progress over the last three decades. Through
R&D – much carried out through international collaboration – a number of sustainable technologies have advanced and
are gaining a growing market share while contributing significantly to energy supply. Hydroelectricity provides almost
20% of global electrical generation while bioenergy and geothermal contribute significant amount of both electricity
and heat. Newer technologies such as wind and photovoltaics are becoming important global industries with annual
sales of several billion US$.
The potential for renewable energy supply offers significant opportunities for further growth. Drawing on the
experience of the last few decades and the lessons learned, it is clear that renewable energy can play a very important
role in transitioning to a global sustainable energy supply by the middle of this century.
Intelligent choice of priorities will invariably facilitate market deployment of new and improved technologies. To this
end, it will be necessary to refocus the renewable energy strategy towards three general directions, They include:
1. Increased targeted renewables R&D funding;
2. Improved strategy for market deployment; and
3. Inclusion of externalities in policy considerations.
R&D and market deployment complement each other and result in faster and more meaningful technology learning. In
view of the impact of technology deployment policies in advancing the state of the art and expediting
commercialisation, governments should seek new deployment policies that will facilitate renewables’ market growth.
R&D and policy strategies need to differentiate among technologies in order to address diverse problems of particular
and unique technical challenges.
Renewable energy technologies have different development profiles but potential benefits may be similar in terms of
more secure and diversified energy supply, economic development and reduced environmental impact (for example,
International technology collaboration has provided proof that it can substantially contribute to the process of
technological innovation. Many of the identified technology issues can be addressed through collaborative effort within
the framework of the IEA.
Integrating economic and emergy analyses in theory and practice
Donald L. Adolphson, PhD *
Romney Institute of Public Management
Brigham Young University
Provo Utah USA 84602
801 422 2433
Daniel Campbell, PhD
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Research and Development
National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
Atlantic Ecology Division
Narragansett, RI 02882
401 782 3195
This paper provides a fresh perspective on a long history of using the model of natural science to gain insights into the
workings of an economy. Economics relies heavily on the concept of utility, or usefulness, as an underlying basis for
determining value. Usefulness implies a subject (individual, community, or society) that derives satisfaction from using
an item. This emphasis on utility has led economists to think of their discipline as a receiver-based theory of value.
Conversely, emergy accounting focuses on the energy transformations required to produce a given product or service as
the means for determining its value. This emphasis on the production process has led many to think of emergy synthesis
as a donor-based theory of value. In this paper, we show that, when viewed from an energy systems perspective, emergy
is actually an objective measure of utility which complements well the subjective measure of utility oft used by
economists. We show that emergy is a more comprehensive measure of utility than money or exergy, because it more
accurately captures the inherent quality (ordinality) of a good or service, which manifests in its use within the system in
which it has evolved.
Barriers to sensible energy saving solutions
Harald Throne-Holst, Pål Strandbakken and Eivind Stø
National Institute for Consumer Research, SIFO, Norway
P.O Box 4692, Nydalen, 0405 Oslo, Norway
+47 22 04 35 73, firstname.lastname@example.org
We observe barriers among consumers to solutions for energy saving that are considered sensible and rational. How can
these barriers be understood, explained and finally overcome? In connection with the “energy price crisis” in Norway in
the winter of 2003/2004, where the price of electricity spiked due to severe cold combined low water levels in
reservoirs (Norwegian domestic electricity production is hydro powered) lead to a doubling of electricity prices over a
relative short time period. This event turned attention to the potential of heat pumps in Norwegian households. Even
though it has become something of a truth that you save money on these devices, Norwegian consumers appear
reluctant to borrow money to install them.
We believe there are 5 types of barriers to energy saving solutions:
1. Physical and structural barriers: Households are a part of society’s greater general physical structure. The
overwhelming majority are connected to electrical, telecom, water and wastewater networks. The degree and
character of freedom of actions for individual households are largely dependent on basic historical traditions,
2. Political barriers: Politicians create frameworks for household behaviour. They give laws, directives and
develop regulations on national and European level. These laws and regulations are set into practice by
political authorities. Thus, political authorities determine the potential for change, and freedom of actions for
3. Economic barriers: Some measures to reduce your household’s energy use will include economic investments.
These may give a payback over time, but still they presuppose available economic funds in the household to be
set aside for such investments.
4. Cultural-normative barriers: Not all ways of saving energy may comply with the culture you live in. Norway
for instance has the world’s highest per capita energy use for lighting; a major contributing factor to this is
related to the cultural aesthetics, which relates interior lighting and pools of light and shadow with a cosy
5. Individual-psychological barriers: Finally we all have our own limits to what we would do to achieve a goal
like saving energy, which can have their origin in individual taboos, having their roots in own experiences or
The main elements in these barriers will be identified and discussed in an empirical analysis based upon focus groups
among various group of households. Especially we will distinguish between ordinary, stable households and households
who are in a transition process where they build, rebuild and repair houses and flats, or move from one residence to
another. We will identify their windows of opportunities.
Third Party Financing. New financial tools for energy efficiency
Issues of energy efficiency are closely linked to financial availability. The latter can be increased by good use of energy
due to optimised process management. Third Party Financing (TPF) is an appropriate tool for funding of optimisation
strategies without financial charge to final user. This is due to budget savings from increased energy efficiency and
more appropriate allocation of financial resources made available. ESCOs (Energy Service COmpanies) are the new
technical and market operators which make the TPF tool available to final users.
TPF is regulated from European Union Directive 93/76/EEC, which is presently in course of replacement by the more
recent Directive 2006/32/EC. Third Party Financing has already been included in the Energy Programme of the Italian
Government as well as in several Regional Energy Plans.
The TPF strategy is strictly related to the White Certificate market (efficiency certificates), which is already regulated
by the Italian Directive DM 20/07/2004 as well as the above-mentioned EU Directive 2006/32/EC.
Several examples of application of TPF to foster energy efficiency in Italy with special focus on space heating for the
residential sector are presented and discussed.
Financial return on investment in energy efficiency and renewable energies
Renewable energy: The backgroundThe time of oil and gas shortages is near to come and, as a result, obtaining
electricity from alternative sources has become increasingly important. The global boom in renewable energy is
underway and it is set to continue. Overall, strong growth rates are forecasted for “clean energy sources”. Markets are
expected to grow from USD 16 Bio in global revenues in 2004 to more than USD 100 Bio by 2014 according to a report
released by Clean Edge, an energy research and publishing firm. The share of renewable energy in total worldwide
electricity production is 17.9%. Roughly 90% of that share is water power (16.2% of total electricity production),
biomass 6% and the remaining renewable energy processes almost 4% . Types of renewable energy
Renewable energy is generally classified as commercial energy production or energy sources which are inexhaustible.
Bioenergy: A low cost energy source that can be obtained from biomass, in particular wood straw maize, sugar beet, oil-
seed rape, biogas and plant oils. Its main advantages is the reduction of carbon dioxide emission into the atmosphere .
Solar Power: Energy of the sun (nuclear fusion), which takes the form of electromagnetic radiation.
Water Power: Energy of water currents, which can be converted into mechanical energy using suitable machines.
Wind power: Is the kinetic energy produced by masses of air moving in the atmosphere.
Geothermal: Geothermal heat is the heat stored in the upper layer of the earth’s crust. It describes both the energy
produced by or stored in the earth.
Fuel cells: A fuel cell is a voltaic cell that converts a continuous supply of fuel and an oxidising agent into usable
electrical energy.Alternative Solutions: ECPI® (E.Capital Partners Index) selects global players active in implementing
innovative solutions that allow a more efficient and environmental – friendly use of power resources.ECP Index
Construction The ECP Renewable Energy Index includes a set of 30 global companies that aim at providing near-term
solutions to global warming while offsetting the longer-term impacts of climate change through renewable energy,
alternative fuels, clean technology and efficiency.Sector Validation
Constituent selection is based on the Proprietary and Transparent ECPI Research Methodology. Nuclear energy or oil
are not taken into consideration, except for the specific discretionary cases when a company can substantially contribute
to the sustainable development and use of renewable energies. Inclusion of such companies will be explicitly
SustainabilityECPI® evaluates each company eligibility based on its specific environmentally sustainable efforts,
environmental management and capability to offset negative climate impacts.
The highest ranked companies in each category are included in the Index such as those that record significant and
forward looking achievements in the field of environmental friendly and sustainable products e.g. the world's first mass-
producer hydrogen-powered fuel cell hybrid vehicle.
 Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, June 2005, Germany
Back to the Future: global convergence of Energetic, Environmental, and Economic Issues.
Mark T. Brown
University of Florida
With the increased demands placed on material resources, land, water, and the environment in general, from continued
economic development, population growth, and increasing standards of living, humanity is on a collision course with
energetic, economic and environmental realities. All indications are that the global supply of fossil petroleum is limited
and will soon peak in availability and begin declining. The net energy (or Energy Return on Investment) of primary
energy sources will increase the effect of “Peak Oil” on the economy much sooner than predicted. Large global storages
of coal will power economies, but dealing with greenhouse gases will decrease their net energy contributions.
Renewable energy sources are dilute and require large spatial areas and significant material resources, reducing their net
energy. Dealing with environmental impacts (ie global warming, pollution, decreased productivity of ecosystems) may
further exacerbate the effects of declining fossil energy availability.
The following questions (among others) will be posed and answered in this presentation:
Can humanity heed warnings of economic calamity resulting from reduced energy availability?
Can humanity reverse current trends of global warming?
What is the minimum net energy (EROI) required of sources to sustain global economies?
What is the relationship between the intensity of energy sources (ie specific energy) and their net energy?
Can we increase the energy efficiency of the economy?