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					                                                                                                                                                                                    IRR Base Case



                                   Biogas Project of BAJ Way Japara, Indonesia

   I        Assumptions
Sl. No.                     Input Parameters             Value                                              Source                                                    Sensitivity Analysis
        1 Cost of the Project (IDR in million)                                                                                                            Factors          Variation         Project IRR
            - Civil works                               2795.00    SD #7a, Section 6.1, with 50% of local part taken as Civil Works.                   Project cost           0%               7.40%
            - Anaerobic reactor etc.                    14105.00   SD #7a, Section 6.1, with 50% of local part taken as M&E.                           O&M Cost               0%               7.40%
            - Gensets                                   7876.83    SD #11 - Genset two units for BAJ WJ and Unit 6                                     Generation             0%               7.40%

                                                                   Balance of plant                                                                        Insert any percent in Cell I4, I5 and I6 and get the
            - Contingency at 10%                        2477.68
                                                                                                                                                                           corresponding IRR
            Total Project cost                          27254.51                                                                                          Factors         -10%                0%            10%
        2 Financing Pattern - Equity                       -                                                                                           Project cost         9.32%              7.40%       5.62%
                                 - Debt                 27254.51   SD #5 - Loan sanctioned by Cargil International SA                                  O&M Cost             8.62%              7.40%       6.02%
        3 Terms of loan                                                                                                                                Generation           5.16%              7.40%       9.32%
            - Repayment period (years)                     6       SD #5 - Loan document                                                               With CDM                               21.80%

            - Rate of Interest (LIBOR + 3.5%)             6.8%     SD #5 - Loan document , latest LIBOR rate has been taken.
                                                                   http://www.economagic.com
            - Repayment starts from                       2008     SD #5 - Loan document
        4 Capacity of Gensets (MW)                       2.126     SD #11 - Genset two units for BAJ WJ and Unit 6
        5 Power requirement (kWh)                                  computed
            Specific electricity consumption (kWh/ton
                                                          235      Based on historical data, see calculation in tab 'Power requirement'
            starch)
        6 Power tariff (IDR/kWh)                          502      SD #19 - Average 2006 power rate from PLN (439 IRD/kWh + Fix charges)
        7 Insurance premium                              0.15%     Assumption based on experience
                                                                   Renewable Energy: Sources for Fuels and Electricity, pg 835, Table 4, footnote f.
        8 O&M expenses for Anaerobic reactor              4.0%     http://books.google.com/books?id=40XtqVMRxOUC&pg=PA824&dq=UASB+reactor&e
                                                                   i=GNgLSuWeD5aQyATBltXtBA#PPA835,M1
            Operational lifetime of Jenbacher gas                  SSD #23 - Lifespan of GE engine
                                                           15
            engine (year)
            O&M expenses for gas engines (expressed                SD #12 - Nixon Power average O&M per kWh including major overhaul cost (USD
        9                                                148.4
            as IDR/KWh)                                            0.016/kWh)
       10 Yearly escalation                               6.6%     SD #13 - Year 2006 Inflation: http://www.bps.go.id/sector/cpi/table3.shtml

       11 Salaries and wages
            - 4 Supervisor at IDR 1.50 mn. /month          72      Existing salary level in the company
            - 8 Helper at IDR 1.00 mn. /month              96      Existing salary level in the company
                                                                   SD #14 - Economic Report on Indonesia 2007, P.26, Table 2.2, Year 2006:
       12 Annual increase                                12.3%     http://www.bi.go.id/NR/rdonlyres/BF1DCB9C-B252-44E2-94FE-
                                                                   041C3870530C/13432/Chapter16.pdf
       13 Depreciation rate - Civil works                 10%      SD#15
                               - Machinery                10%      SD#15
                                                                   http://asiatax.wordpress.com/2008/02/14/indonesia-to-set-corporate-income-tax-
       14 Income tax                                     25.00%
                                                                   rate-at-flat-25-percent-report/
       15 Emission reduction per annum                   50,060    Computed
       16 Price of CER in USD                              10
       17 Exchange rate IDR/USD                           9275     as per 14 July 2006




                                                                                                                                                                                         Page 1
                                                                                                                                                                       IRR Base Case




II    Interest on Term loan
                                                                   2009        2010         2011         2012         2013         2014
      Opening balance                                            27254.51    22712.09     18169.68     13627.26      9084.84      4542.42
      Repayment                                                  4542.42      4542.42      4542.42      4542.42      4542.42      4542.42
      Closing balance                                            22712.09    18169.68     13627.26      9084.84      4542.42        0.00
      Interest                                                   1839.68      1533.07      1226.45      919.84       613.23       306.61



III   Projected Profitability Statement - without CDM benefits
                                                                  2009*        2010         2011         2012         2013         2014         2015         2016            2017         2018         2019         2020         2021         2022         2023         2024         2025         2026         2027         2028         2029
      Income
      Throughput of starch (mt / yr)                              15,000      50,000       55,000       60,000       60,000       60,000       60,000       60,000           60,000      60,000       60,000       60,000       60,000       60,000       60,000       60,000       60,000       60,000       60,000       60,000       60,000
      Power requirement (kWh)                                    3,521,378   11,737,925   12,911,718   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510      14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510
      Savings from power                                         1,767.73     5,892.44     6,481.68     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93        7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93
      CDM benefits                                                 0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00            0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
      Total income                                               1,767.73     5,892.44     6,481.68     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93        7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93
      Expenses
      O&M cost (Anaerobic reactor)                                188.07      601.44       641.13       683.45       728.55       776.64       827.90       882.54           940.79      1,002.88     1,069.07     1,139.63     1,214.84     1,295.02     1,380.49     1,471.60     1,568.73     1,672.27     1,782.64     1,900.29     2,025.71
      O&M cost (Gas engines)                                      522.57      1,741.91     1,916.10     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29        2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29
      Insurance premium                                            40.88       40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88           40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88
      Salaries and wages                                          104.00      179.81       201.92       226.76       254.65       285.97       321.15       360.65           405.01      454.83       510.77       573.60       644.15       723.38       812.35       912.27       1,024.48     1,150.50     1,292.01     1,450.92     1,629.39
      Interest                                                   1,839.68     1,533.07     1,226.45     919.84       613.23       306.61         0.00         0.00            0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
      Depreciation - Civil works                                  279.50      279.50       279.50       279.50       279.50       279.50       279.50       279.50           279.50      279.50         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
                    - Plant and machinery                        2,198.18     2,198.18     2,198.18     2,198.18     2,198.18     2,198.18     2,198.18     2,198.18        2,198.18     2,198.18       0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00       787.68       787.68       787.68       787.68       787.68       787.68
      Profit before tax                                          -3,405.15    -682.35       -22.49      632.02       865.64       1,092.84     1,313.02     1,218.88        1,116.27     1,004.37     3,359.92     3,226.53     3,080.76     2,921.35     2,746.91     1,768.19     1,558.86     1,329.31     1,077.43     800.86       496.97
      Tax                                                          0.00         0.00         0.00       158.01       216.41       273.21       328.26       304.72           279.07      251.09       839.98       806.63       770.19       730.34       686.73       442.05       389.71       332.33       269.36       200.21       124.24
      Profit after tax                                           -3,405.15    -682.35       -22.49      474.02       649.23       819.63       984.77       914.16           837.21      753.27       2,519.94     2,419.90     2,310.57     2,191.02     2,060.18     1,326.14     1,169.14     996.98       808.07       600.64       372.73


IV    Project Internal Rate of Return - without CDM benefits        1            2            3            4            5            6            7            8               9           10           11           12           13           14           15           16           17           18           19           20           21
                                                      2008        2009*        2010         2011         2012         2013         2014         2015         2016            2017         2018         2019         2020         2021         2022         2023         2024         2025         2026         2027         2028         2029
      Profit after tax                                           -3,405.15    -682.35       -22.49      474.02       649.23       819.63       984.77       914.16           837.21      753.27       2,519.94     2,419.90     2,310.57     2,191.02     2,060.18     1,326.14     1,169.14     996.98       808.07       600.64       372.73
      Depreciation                                               2,477.68     2,477.68     2,477.68     2,477.68     2,477.68     2,477.68     2,477.68     2,477.68        2,477.68     2,477.68       0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00       787.68       787.68       787.68       787.68       787.68       787.68
      Interest on term loan                                      1,839.68     1,533.07     1,226.45     919.84       613.23       306.61         0.00         0.00            0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
      Salvage value                                                0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00            0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
      Cash outflow                                  -27254.51                                                                                                                                                                                            -7,876.83
      Net cash flow                                 -27254.51     912.21      3,328.40     3,681.65     3,871.54     3,740.14     3,603.93     3,462.45     3,391.84        3,314.89     3,230.96     2,519.94     2,419.90     2,310.57     2,191.02    -5,816.65     2,113.83     1,956.83     1,784.66     1,595.75     1,388.33     1,160.41
      Project IRR                                     7.40%


V     Projected Profitability Statement - with CDM benefits
                                                                  2009*        2010         2011         2012         2013         2014         2015         2016            2017         2018         2019         2020         2021         2022         2023         2024         2025         2026         2027         2028         2029
      Income
      Throughput of starch (mt / yr)                              15,000      50,000       55,000       60,000       60,000       60,000       60,000       60,000           60,000      60,000       60,000       60,000       60,000       60,000       60,000       60,000       60,000       60,000       60,000       60,000       60,000
      Power requirement (kWh)                                    3,521,378   11,737,925   12,911,718   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510      14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510   14,085,510
      Savings from power                                         1,767.73     5,892.44     6,481.68     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93        7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93     7,070.93
      CDM benefits                                               1,218.80     4,062.67     4,468.93     4,875.20     4,875.20     4,875.20     4,875.20     4,875.20        4,875.20     4,875.20     4,875.20     4,875.20     4,875.20     4,875.20     4,875.20     4,875.20     4,875.20     4,875.20     4,875.20     4,875.20     4,875.20
      Total income                                               2,986.53     9,955.10    10,950.61    11,946.13    11,946.13    11,946.13    11,946.13    11,946.13       11,946.13    11,946.13    11,946.13    11,946.13    11,946.13    11,946.13    11,946.13    11,946.13    11,946.13    11,946.13    11,946.13    11,946.13    11,946.13
      Expenses
      O&M cost (Anaerobic Reactor)                                188.07      601.44       641.13       683.45       728.55       776.64       827.90       882.54           940.79      1,002.88     1,069.07     1,139.63     1,214.84     1,295.02     1,380.49     1,471.60     1,568.73     1,672.27     1,782.64     1,900.29     2,025.71
      O&M cost (Gas engines)                                      522.57      1,741.91     1,916.10     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29        2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29     2,090.29
      Insurance premium                                            40.88       40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88           40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88        40.88
      Salaries and wages                                          104.00      179.81       201.92       226.76       254.65       285.97       321.15       360.65           405.01      454.83       510.77       573.60       644.15       723.38       812.35       912.27       1,024.48     1,150.50     1,292.01     1,450.92     1,629.39
      Interest                                                   1,839.68     1,533.07     1,226.45     919.84       613.23       306.61         0.00         0.00            0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
      Depreciation - Civil works                                  279.50      279.50       279.50       279.50       279.50       279.50       279.50       279.50           279.50      279.50         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
                    - Plant and machinery                        2,198.18     2,198.18     2,198.18     2,198.18     2,198.18     2,198.18     2,198.18     2,198.18        2,198.18     2,198.18       0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00       787.68       787.68       787.68       787.68       787.68       787.68
      Profit before tax                                          -2,186.35    3,380.32     4,446.44     5,507.22     5,740.84     5,968.04     6,188.22     6,094.08        5,991.47     5,879.57     8,235.11     8,101.73     7,955.96     7,796.55     7,622.11     6,643.39     6,434.06     6,204.51     5,952.63     5,676.06     5,372.17
      Tax                                                         -546.59     845.08       1,111.61     1,376.81     1,435.21     1,492.01     1,547.06     1,523.52        1,497.87     1,469.89     2,058.78     2,025.43     1,988.99     1,949.14     1,905.53     1,660.85     1,608.51     1,551.13     1,488.16     1,419.01     1,343.04
      Profit after tax                                           -1,639.76    2,535.24     3,334.83     4,130.42     4,305.63     4,476.03     4,641.17     4,570.56        4,493.61     4,409.67     6,176.34     6,076.30     5,966.97     5,847.42     5,716.58     4,982.54     4,825.54     4,653.38     4,464.47     4,257.04     4,029.13


VI    Project Internal Rate of Return - with CDM benefits
                                                      2008        2009*        2010         2011         2012         2013         2014         2015         2016            2017         2018         2019         2020         2021         2022         2023         2024         2025         2026         2027         2028         2029
      Profit after tax                                           -1,639.76    2,535.24     3,334.83     4,130.42     4,305.63     4,476.03     4,641.17     4,570.56        4,493.61     4,409.67     6,176.34     6,076.30     5,966.97     5,847.42     5,716.58     4,982.54     4,825.54     4,653.38     4,464.47     4,257.04     4,029.13
      Depreciation                                               2,477.68     2,477.68     2,477.68     2,477.68     2,477.68     2,477.68     2,477.68     2,477.68        2,477.68     2,477.68       0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00       787.68       787.68       787.68       787.68       787.68       787.68
      Interest on term loan                                      1,839.68     1,533.07     1,226.45     919.84       613.23       306.61         0.00         0.00            0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
      Salvage value                                                0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00            0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
      Cash outflow                                  -27254.51                                                                                                                                                                                            -7,876.83
      Net cash flow                                 -27254.51    2,677.60     6,545.99     7,038.97     7,527.94     7,396.54     7,260.33     7,118.85     7,048.24        6,971.29     6,887.36     6,176.34     6,076.30     5,966.97     5,847.42    -2,160.25     5,770.23     5,613.22     5,441.06     5,252.15     5,044.73     4,816.81
      Project IRR                                    21.80%



      Note:
      * start from 1 Sept 2009 - 31 Dec 2009
      ** start from 1 Jan 2030 - 31 Aug 2030




                                                                                                                                                                          Page 2
IRR Base Case




   Page 3
            IRR Base Case




 2030**


 40,000
9,390,340
4,713.95
  0.00
4,713.95


1,439.60
1,393.53
 40.88
1,219.87
  0.00
  0.00
 525.12
 94.95
 23.74
 71.21


   22
 2030**
 71.21
 525.12
  0.00
2,625.61


3,221.94




 2030**


 40,000
9,390,340
4,713.95
3,250.13
7,964.08


1,439.60
1,393.53
 40.88
1,219.87
  0.00
  0.00
 525.12
3,345.08
 836.27
2,508.81



 2030**
2,508.81
 525.12
  0.00
2,625.61


5,659.54




               Page 4
Data for CERs calculation:                                                                                                            Reference
                                                                                        Bo,ww         0.21           AMS IIIH
                                                                      CODy,ww,untreated (mg/l)      17,857           Design Parameter
                                                                               CODy,ww,treated       1,786           Onsite test result or 10% of the CODy, ww, untreated
                                                                 MCFww,treatment (high value)          0.1           AMS IIIH, this is for the wastewater
                                                                 MCFww,treatment (low value)           0.8           discharged to well managed aerobic
                                                                                                                     AMS IIIH for deep laggon in the baseline
                                                               MCFww,treatment (higher value)           1            AMS IIIH for deep laggon in the baseline
                                                                                       CFEww           0.9           AMS IIIH
                                                                                   GWP_CH4             21            IPCC 2006
                                           EFy,2 (tCO2/MWhe): Production for Internal use             0.82           AMS I.D, PLN grid emission
                                                                Flow rate (m3/mt starch)               14            Design parameter
                                                       Maximum output of starch (mt/year)           60000            Plant Capacity
                                                  GWE Bio-diegester COD removal efficiency            90%            Design Parameter
                                                                                                                     Plant histrical record, to be
                       COD removal efficiency for Anaerobic Treatment System (Baseline)               90%            conservative, 90% is being considered
                                                                                                                     in the baseline
                                               Maximum volume of wastewater (m3/year)              840,000           Design Parameter



Project Emissions (tCO2e/year)                                                                       YEAR                  Unit            2009*
                                                                                                       PEy            tCO2 / annum         1,654
                              Emissions though electricity of diesel consumption in year y         PEy, power         tCO2 / annum           0
           Emissions through degradable organic carbon in treated wastewater in year y           PEy,ww, treated      tCO2 / annum          165
         Methane emissions from the anerobic decay of the final sludge generated in the            PEy,s,final        tCO2 / annum           0
                                                       wastewater system in the year y
             Emissions through methane realease in capture and flare systems in year y            PEy,fugitive        tCO2 / annum         1,488
Emissions through capture and flare inefficiencies in the anaerobic wastewater treatment  PE y,fugitive,ww            tCO2 / annum         1,488
                                                                             in the value
                                   Methane emission potential of wastewater-high year y MEP y,ww,treatment            tonne /Annum          709
          Fugitive emissions through capture & flare inefficiencies in the anaerobic sludge      PE y,fugitive,s      tCO2 / annum           0
                                                                                 treatment
                     Emissions through dissolved methane in treated wastewater in year y          PEy,dissolved       tCO2 / annum           0
Baseline Emissions (tCO2e/year)
                                                           Baseline emissions (tCO2e/year)            BEy             tCO2 / annum        14,794
                                                                                                 BEy,ww,treated       tCO2 / annum        11,907
Methane emission potential of the anaerobic wastewater treatment plant in the baseline            MEPy,ww,bl           tCH4/annum           567
                                                                    situation in year y            BEy,s,final        tCO2 / annum           0
                                              Quantity of electricity requirement for plant           EGy             MWh / annum          3,521
                                                                       Grid Emission factor      EF electricity, y     tCO2 / MWh           0.82
                                                                                                  BEy, power          tCO2 / annum         2,888


Emission Reductions per year (tCO2e/year) (all)                                                       ERy             tCO2 / annum        13,141
Emission Reductions per year (tCO2e/year) for methane capture only                                    ERy1            tCO2 / annum        10,253
Emission Reduction per year (tCO2e/year) for electricity generation                                   ERy2            tCO2 / annum         2,888
                                                               1st Crediting period (years)             7
                                                         Average Baseline Emissions (CER)           56,360
                                                           Average Project Emissions (CER)           6,300
                                                                         Average CER ERy1           39,060
                                                                         Average CER ERy2           11,000
                                                                     TOTAL CER Per annum            50,060


Note:
* start from 1 Sept 2009 - 31 Dec 2009
** start from 1 Jan 2030 - 31 Aug 2030
YEARLY POWER REQUIREMENT FOR 60,000 MT STARCH OUTPUT


A. Specific Power Consumption


                                            Way Jepara                                      Projected Output of Starch*
                                     2006     2007         2008     2009***     2010       2011
Output Starch                    37,922       41,989      39,987     45,000     50,000    55,000
Total kWh (**)                9,293,556 9,854,261        8,977,821 10,564,133 11,737,925 12,911,718
kWh/mt starch                         245      235          225
Average kWh/mt starch                          235
Note:
* refer SD #21 - Starch projection
** refer to SD#22a, SD#22b, SD#22c - log book
*** Start from 1 Sep 2009 - 31 Dec 2009
**** Start from 1 Jan 2030 - 31 Aug 2030
Projected Output of Starch*                                                  Projected Output of Starch*
           2012        2013     2014       2015       2016       2017       2018        2019
          60,000      60,000   60,000     60,000     60,000     60,000     60,000      60,000
        14,085,510 14,085,510 14,085,510 14,085,510 14,085,510 14,085,510 14,085,510 14,085,510
Projected Output of Starch*                                                   Projected Output of Starch*
                       2020      2021       2022       2023       2024       2025        2026        2027
                      60,000    60,000     60,000     60,000     60,000     60,000      60,000      60,000
                    14,085,510 14,085,510 14,085,510 14,085,510 14,085,510 14,085,510 14,085,510 14,085,510
tput of Starch*
                    2028       2029     2030****
                   60,000     60,000     60,000
                  14,085,510 14,085,510 14,085,510

				
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Description: Case Management Spreadsheet document sample