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BALTIC RIM ECONOMIES WEEKLY Rose May France

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BALTIC RIM ECONOMIES WEEKLY Rose May France

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									 BALTIC RIM
 ECONOMIES WEEKLY
 July 7, 2010 No. 304
     •     Estonia’s industrial output growth slowed down to 17% a year
     •     The number of corporate bankruptcies in Lithuania was up by 92.6% last year
     •     FDI in Lithuania rises 0.6% in Q1 qoq
     •     Latvia’s "Parex“ new bank to be called "Citadele banka"; license issued

 Main Macroeconomic and Financial Indicators of LITHUANIA
                                                                  2008         2009                   2009                             2010
                                                                                              Q2       Q3           Q4           Q1           Q2
Real sector
Real GDP, yoy, %                                                    2.8        -14.8         -16.6     -14.7       -12.5        -2.6           :
Nominal GDP per capita, EUR thou                                    9.6         8.0          8.9        8.4         8.0          8.0           :
                                                                                                                                             -0.1
Industrial production index, wda, yoy, %1)                          5.5        -14.6         -20.2     -15.2        -8.3        -2.7
                                                                                                                                          (Jan-May)
Volume index of construction production, wda, yoy, %                4.1        -48.5         -48.0     -49.3       -52.3       -42.9           :
Retail trade (excl. motor vehicles and motorcycles),                                                                                        -13.3
                                                                    3.8        -21.4         -19.5     -21.4       -26.3       -14.3
deflated turnover index, wda, yoy, %                                                                                                      (Jan-May)
Gross fixed capital formation, yoy, %1)                            -6.5        -39.1         -40.9     -41.4       -35.4       -30.2           :
Prices
HICP, eop, yoy, %                                                   8.5         1.2          3.9        2.3         1.2         -0.4       0.5 (May)
                                                                                                                                             11.8p
PPI, eop, yoy, %                                                   -6.9         1.4          -16.7     -19.5        1.4         10.0
                                                                                                                                             (May)
Labour market
Average gross monthly earnings, yoy, %                             19.4         -4.6         -2.9      -7.7         -8.7        -7.4           :
Unemployment rate, sa, LFS, %                                       5.8        13.7          13.5      14.3        15.9         17.4           :
External trade & external position
Exports of goods, yoy, %1)                                         13.8        -13.3         -23.9     -16.2        0.6          3.8           :
                            1)
Imports of goods, yoy, %                                            8.9        -30.0         -35.8     -30.7       -17.5         6.2           :
Current account balance, % of GDP                                 -11.9         3.8          0.9        4.2        10.1          0.2           :
FDI inflow, % of GDP                                                3.9         0.9          2.3       -1.0         -1.7        -0.2           :
FDI per capita, eop, EUR                                           2731        2895          2859      2950        2895         2917           :
                                                                                                                                            1461.7
International reserves per capita, eop, EUR                        1365        1394          1335      1379        1394         1433
                                                                                                                                             (May)
Financial market
Average interest rates on new loans in LCU, eop, %                 10.1         8.1          10.0       8.4         8.1          5.5       5.5 (May)
Average interest rates on new term deposits in LCU,
                                                                    7.7         4.9          7.1        6.5         4.9          2.1       1.7 (May)
eop, %
Loans to households and non-financial corporations,
                                                                   17.9         -7.1         1.5       -4.6         -7.1        -7.1      -6.8 (May)
yoy, %
Housing loan portfolio, yoy, %                                     24.9         -0.5         9.1        2.7         -0.5        -0.9      -0.7 (May)
Loans to households and private non-financial
                                                                   59.3        66.6          61.6      64.2        66.6         65.3           :
corporations, eop, % of GDP
Deposits, yoy, %                                                   -0.3         4.8          -2.4      -5.9         4.8          5.2       7.1 (May)
Economic sentiments
                                                                                                                                              95.6
Economic sentiments, total index, eop                              85.7        83.7          78.0      79.2        83.7         92.1
                                                                                                                                            (June)
                                                                                                                                             -36.6
Consumer sentiments, eop                                          -50.0        -47.7         -44.5     -42.1       -47.7       -38.9
                                                                                                                                            (June)
Note: Latest date is given in parenthesis; 1)at constant prices; sectoral statistics has been adjusted to NACE 2.
Abbreviations: GDP – gross domestic product; HICP – harmonized index of consumer prices; PPI – producer price index; FDI – foreign direct
investments; yoy – year-on-year; eop - end-of-period; LFS – Labour Force Survey; LCU – local currency units; wda - data adjusted by working days; sa –
seasonally adjusted, p – provisional value.
Sources: National statistics office, Bank of Lithuania, ECB, Eurostat, European Commission




                                                                                                                                                     1
News on Macroeconomics, Finance and Banking
In June Estonia's        Estonian inflation accelerated in June at the fastest pace in 17 months, mainly because of an increase in
inflation accelerated    electricity tariffs, fuel prices and local taxes.
at the fastest pace in
                         The inflation rate rose to 3.5% following a 3% increase in May. The median estimate of four analysts
17 months
                         surveyed by Bloomberg was 3.2%. In the month, prices rose 0.4%. Electricity and heating prices rose a
July 7, 2010             combined 12.2% from a year earlier, and motor fuel was 18.8% more expensive, with both contributing a
(BNS, Bloomberg)         third of the overall price increase.
                         The municipality of Tallinn last month introduced a 1% sales tax on essential goods and electricity tariffs
                         were raised by an average 2.8% for households.

                         Estonian industrial production growth slowed in May from a record pace a month earlier as domestic
Estonia’s industrial
output growth slowed     demand remained weak. Production increased 17.1% from a year earlier, compared with an 18.4% rise the
down to 17% yoy          previous month, the highest since at least 2000. Output rose 2% from the previous month on a seasonally
                         adjusted basis.
July 2, 2010
                         Confidence among industrial companies worsened in June to minus 2 points from plus one point in May,
(Baltic Business News)   the first decline in a year, according to seasonally adjusted data from the Tallinn-based
                         Konjunktuuriinstituut research institute.
                         Domestic sales of manufacturing shrank 6% from a year earlier, compared with a 12% decline in April.
                         Manufacturing exports, led by wireless network gear and wind generators made by local units of Sweden’s
                         Ericsson and ABB., grew an annual 46%, compared with a 36% rise the previous month.

                         Bankruptcy proceedings against 1,843 companies were launched in Lithuania last year, up 92.6% versus
The number of
                         the year-earlier figure of 597.
Lithuanian corporate
bankruptcies nearly      The numbers of bankruptcy proceedings were the largest in the regions of Vilnius (639), Kaunas (382) and
doubled in 2009          Klaipeda (266).
July 2, 2010             In sectoral terms, the numbers of bankruptcies were the largest in the construction sector (422 companies,
(BNS)                    or 22.9% of total bankruptcies number) and wholesale and retail (415 companies, 22.5%).

                         Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Lithuania totaled LTL 33.465 bn (EUR 9.7 bn) in early April, up by LTL
FDI in Lithuania rises
0.6% in Q1 qoq           184.4 mn, or 0.6%, compared with a quarter ago.

July 1, 2010             The growth in cumulative FDI was due to increased stock capital because of rising share prices. FDI flow in
                         the first quarter was negative, at minus LTL 39.9 mn.
(BNS)
                         The largest investors in the first quarter were Denmark with LTL 224.5 mn, France with LTL 111.3 mn,
                         Malta with LTL 109.8 mn, Russia with LTL 74 mn, Cyprus with LTL 65.8 mn land Germany with LTL 43.1
                         mn.

                         Employers, providing a first job for persons with no previous working experience, will be exempted from
Seimas encouraged
                         part of social security contributions for one year.
the first job
employment               This exemption will only apply to those people whose earnings do not exceed 3 minimum monthly wage
                         rates. The adopted amendments will come into force on August 1 and will be available temporarily - until
June 30, 2010
                         July 31, 2012.
(ELTA)

Vilnius posts the        A comparison of average asking prices of apartments shows that the highest average price is being asked
highest average          in Vilnius, according to Spot, the price monitoring unit of real estate website City24.
asking price of
apartments in the        According to statistics at end of June 2010, Vilnius that posted the highest average asking prices for
Baltics                  apartments was followed by Riga and Tallinn. In average, apartment sellers in Vilnus were asking LTL
                         5,126 per sq. m. The asking price per sq. m in Riga was LVL 1,017, while the Tallinn indicator was EEK
June 30, 2010            19,437 per sq. m.
(Baltic Business News)
                         Average sale period for apartments is about 200 days in Vilnius, 150 days in Riga and about 100 days in
                         Tallinn.
Estonia down to 25th     The Economist Intelligence Unit and IBM's annual technology benchmarking study ranked Estonia down
in digital economy       one place to 25th in the world's "digital economy rankings" among 70 countries.
ranking
                         According to the survey that was previously known as e-preparedness list, Estonia still ranks highest
June 30, 2010            among the Central and Eastern European countries, ahead of Slovenia (29th), Czech Republic (31st),
(ELTA)                   Lithuania (34th) and Latvia (37th).
                         The top 3 of the digital economy list were Sweden, Denmark and the US. Among Central and Eastern
                         European countries, Slovenia ranks 29th, the Czech Republic 31st, Lithuania 34th and Latvia 37th.

Poland: foreign debt     Poland's total foreign debt rose to EUR 205.473 bn in Q1 from EUR 194.449 bn at the end of Q4 2009. The
rises                    debt of central and local authorities grew to EUR 69.12 bn from EUR 60.88 bn in the previous quarter. The
                         debt of the banking sector increased to EUR 44.87 bn from EUR 42.9 bn.
June 30, 2010
(Warsaw voice)           The debt of the non-governmental non-banking sector slid to EUR 86.75 bn from EUR 86.9 bn in Q4.

                         The new bank from the soon-to-be-broken-up "Parex" Bank will be called "Citadele banka", and the
Latvia: "Parex“ new
                         Finance and Capital Market Commission decided today to issue it a license.
bank to be called
"Citadele banka";        Officially, the joint-stock "Citadele banka" is the newly-established credit institution the result of
license issued           restructuring of "Parex" Bank, and its founder is the Privatization Agency.
June 29, 2010            The Finance and Capital Market Commission also supported the appointment of Juris Jakobsons as the CEO
(ELTA)                   at "Citadele banka".




                                                                                                                                     2
Economist Intelligence Unit digital economy rankings, 2010                                                                      ANNEX I




                                                                            environment




                                                                                          environment
                                                Connectivity




                                                                                                        Government
                                                               enviroment



                                                                            Social and




                                                                                                        policy and



                                                                                                                     Consumer
                                                               Business




                                                                                                                     adoption
                                                                                                                     business
                                                                            cultural
                                 Overall




                                                                                                        vision
                                 score




                                                                                          Legal




                                                                                                                     and
Category weight                               20%              15%           15%          10%           15%           25%
Sweden                           8.49         8.20             8.13          8.53         8.25          8.90          8.75
Denmark                          8.41         7.85             8.18          8.47         8.10          8.70          8.90
United States                    8.41         7.35             7.85          9.00         8.70          9.25          8.60
Netherlands                      8.36         8.05             8.05          8.07         8.45          8.25          9.00
Norway                           8.24         7.95             7.95          8.00         8.30          8.05          8.90
Hong Kong                        8.22         7.65             8.40          7.27         9.00          9.18          8.28
Singapore                        8.22         7.35             8.63          7.33         8.70          9.13          8.48
Australia                        8.21         7.35             8.24          8.53         8.50          8.85          8.18
New Zealand                      8.07         6.80             8.17          8.60         8.45          8.50          8.29
Canada                           8.05         7.15             8.33          7.87         7.95          8.75          8.35
Taiwan                           7.99         7.00             7.95          8.40         8.15          8.55          8.15
South Korea                      7.94         7.90             7.32          8.80         7.65          9.20          7.18
United Kingdom                   7.89         7.65             7.40          7.73         8.10          8.55          8.00
Austria                          7.88         7.25             7.54          7.80         8.45          8.55          8.00
Japan                            7.85         7.70             7.16          7.80         7.43          8.75          8.04
Ireland                          7.82         7.20             7.75          7.60         8.00          7.85          8.40
Germany                          7.80         7.60             7.82          8.00         8.05          7.40          7.98
Switzerland                      7.72         7.80             8.33          7.93         7.93          6.80          7.65
France                           7.67         6.80             7.54          7.60         7.85          8.20          8.10
Belgium                          7.52         6.95             7.68          7.33         8.45          7.50          7.63
Bermuda                          7.47         7.45             8.04          6.40         8.35          8.50          6.80
Malta                            7.32         6.15             7.28          6.80         8.20          8.65          7.45
Spain                            7.31         6.20             7.39          7.60         8.35          7.85          7.23
Estonia                          7.06         6.40             7.16          6.77         8.40          7.98          6.60
Israel                           6.96         6.30             7.39          7.50         7.05          7.05          6.83
Italy                            6.92         6.45             6.32          7.60         8.45          6.55          6.88
Portugal                         6.90         5.40             6.64          7.33         8.35          7.40          7.10
Slovenia                         6.81         6.10             6.82          6.93         7.40          7.60          6.60
Chile                            6.39         4.15             8.00          6.67         7.40          6.75          6.43
Czech Republic                   6.29         5.55             7.18          6.60         7.20          5.95          6.00
United Arab Emirates             6.25         6.80             7.27          5.47         5.10          6.20          6.18
Greece                           6.20         5.15             6.17          7.13         7.15          6.00          6.25
Lithuania                        6.14         5.45             6.51          6.23         7.33          6.20          5.90
Hungary                          6.06         5.35             6.71          6.27         7.10          6.23          5.60
Malaysia                         5.93         4.35             7.36          5.47         6.88          6.65          5.80
Latvia                           5.79         5.25             6.32          6.17         7.38          5.40          5.28
Slovakia                         5.78         5.35             6.93          6.07         7.15          4.90          5.25
Poland                           5.70         5.10             7.26          5.93         6.83          5.35          4.88
South Africa                     5.61         3.65             6.03          5.57         7.58          5.80          6.05
Mexico                           5.53         3.10             6.97          5.53         6.35          6.55          5.68
Brazil                           5.27         3.60             6.66          5.73         6.10          5.70          4.93
Turkey                           5.24         4.20             6.11          5.80         5.45          5.50          4.98
Jamaica                          5.21         4.75             5.67          5.33         6.65          4.90          4.83
Bulgaria                         5.05         4.80             6.25          5.20         6.65          4.75          4.00
Argentina                        5.04         3.85             5.48          5.73         6.05          5.20          4.83
Romania                          5.04         4.75             6.22          5.23         6.78          5.65          3.38
Trinidad & Tobago                4.98         3.25             6.43          5.33         6.40          5.60          4.33
Thailand                         4.86         3.20             6.83          4.50         6.35          5.60          4.18
Colombia                         4.81         3.60             6.29          4.80         6.60          5.00          4.08
Jordan                           4.76         3.00             6.12          5.30         4.90          5.45          4.55
Saudi Arabia                     4.75         4.25             6.34          5.13         4.75          4.85          3.90
Peru                             4.66         2.60             6.47          5.13         5.80          4.75          4.43
Philippines                      4.47         2.60             6.35          4.27         4.85          5.20          4.38
Venezuela                        4.34         3.85             3.95          5.13         4.70          4.60          4.20
China                            4.28         2.65             6.36          5.40         5.20          4.60          3.11
Egypt                            4.21         2.55             6.20          5.00         5.20          4.90          3.05
India                            4.11         2.15             6.27          4.67         5.60          5.10          2.88
Russia                           3.97         3.85             5.72          5.13         3.65          3.00          3.01
Ecuador                          3.90         2.95             4.63          4.53         4.75          3.80          3.58
Nigeria                          3.88         1.75             4.87          4.53         5.53          4.65          3.50
Vietnam                          3.87         3.20             5.70          3.60         4.65          4.60          2.71
Sri Lanka                        3.81         2.35             5.68          4.40         5.95          3.95          2.55
Ukraine                          3.66         3.50             4.48          5.07         4.23          3.15          2.54
Indonesia                        3.60         2.60             6.04          3.60         4.20          3.88          2.55
Pakistan                         3.55         2.35             5.31          2.80         5.90          4.30          2.51
Kazakhstan                       3.44         3.15             5.26          3.93         3.45          3.93          1.98
Algeria                          3.31         2.90             4.74          3.87         3.30          2.65          2.83
Iran                             3.24         3.20             4.14          4.90         3.00          2.40          2.33
Azerbaijan                       3.00         2.85             4.93          3.17         3.40          2.55          1.98
Source: Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, 2010




                                                                                                                                   3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              ANNEX II

Interbank                                                                                                         3-month interbank interest rates, %                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         12-month interbank interest rates, %
                30
interest                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    25

rates
                25
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            20



                20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            15


                15


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            10
                10



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             5
                 5



                 0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           0
                     2008.09

                                     2008.10

                                                         2008.11

                                                                         2008.12

                                                                                             2009.01

                                                                                                            2009.02

                                                                                                                      2009.03

                                                                                                                                    2009.04

                                                                                                                                                        2009.05

                                                                                                                                                                            2009.06

                                                                                                                                                                                           2009.07

                                                                                                                                                                                                       2009.08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2009.09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2009.10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2009.11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2009.12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2010.01

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2010.02

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2010.03

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2010.04

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2010.05

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2010.06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2008.09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2008.10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2008.11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2008.12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2009.01

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2009.02

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2009.03

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2009.04

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2009.05

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2009.06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2009.07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2009.08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2009.09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2009.10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2009.11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2009.12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2010.01

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2010.02

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2010.03

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2010.04

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2010.05

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2010.06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2010.07
                                        EURIBOR                                                                       TALIBOR                                                                     RIGIBOR                                                   VILIBOR                                                 WIBOR                                                                              EURIBOR                                                                                   TALIBOR                                                                              RIGIBOR                                                                               VILIBOR                                                                             WIBOR




Exchange                                                                           EUR/USD                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                PLN/USD**                                                                                                                                                                              PLN/EUR*
rates           0.85                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        4.0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         5.0



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            3.7                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         4.8

                0.80

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            3.4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         4.6



                0.75                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        3.1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         4.4



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2.8                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         4.2

                0.70

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2.5                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         4.0



                0.65                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2.2                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         3.8
                           2009.01

                                               2009.02

                                                                    2009.03

                                                                                       2009.04

                                                                                                           2009.05

                                                                                                                          2009.06

                                                                                                                                              2009.07

                                                                                                                                                                    2009.08

                                                                                                                                                                                        2009.09

                                                                                                                                                                                                      2009.10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2009.11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2009.12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2010.01

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2010.02

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2010.03

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2010.04

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2010.05

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2010.06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2010.07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2009.01

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2009.02

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2009.03

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2009.04

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2009.05

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2009.06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2009.07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2009.08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2009.09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2009.10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2009.11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2009.12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2010.01

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2010.02

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2010.03

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2010.04

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2010.05

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2010.06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2010.07
Changes per                                                                                                                         EUR                                                                                                                                     EEK                                                                                                              LVL                                                                                                                                                           LTL                                                                                                                                                             PLN
week           2010.07.06
               EUR                                                                            1.0000                                              -                                                                          15.6466                                                  =                                                                         0.7091                                     ↓                                                                                                  3.4528                                                         =                                                                                                4.1110                                                           ↓
               USD                                                                            0.7907                                              ↓                                                                          12.3753                                                  ↓                                                                         0.5607                                     ↓                                                                                                  2.7302                                                        ↓                                                                                                 3.2636                                                           ↓

                Note: * - scale on the right; ** - scale on the left



Energy                                                                                                     Brent-oil price dynamics, USD/barrel                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Gold pric e dynamics, USD/ounce
prices          90                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1300


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1250

                80
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1200


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1150
                70

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1100


                60                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1050


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1000
                50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             950


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             900
                40

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             850

                30                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           800
                     2009.01


                                          2009.02

                                                               2009.03


                                                                                   2009.04

                                                                                                       2009.05


                                                                                                                      2009.06

                                                                                                                                        2009.07

                                                                                                                                                                  2009.08

                                                                                                                                                                                      2009.09

                                                                                                                                                                                                     2009.10


                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2009.11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2009.12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2010.01

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2010.02

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2010.03


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2010.04

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2010.05

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2010.06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2010.07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2009.01

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2009.02

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2009.03

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2009.04

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2009.05

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2009.06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2009.07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2009.08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2009.09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2009.10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2009.11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2009.12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2010.01

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2010.02

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2010.03

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2010.04

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2010.05

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2010.06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2010.07




Source: Reuters, EcoWin
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