WHY STUDY JAPAN? (1/18)
WHY IS JAPAN RELEVANT? 1. Japan as an economic power 2. Japan as a policy challenge 3. Japan as a mirror WHY IS JAPAN INTERESTING? 1. Japan as a theoretical challenge, in sociology, economics, and political science 2. Japan as a moving target: Japanese society, economy and politics in transition COURSE LOGISTICS
JAPAN’S POLITICAL REVOLUTION (1/20)
WHAT HAPPENED? 1. Did the voters revolt, or did the LDP simply self-destruct? 2. The July 1993 Lower House election PROXIMATE CAUSES 1. The battle over political reform 2. Feuds within the LDP UNDERLYING CAUSES 1. The end of high growth 2. The end of the Cold War 3. Changing political values POLITICS SINCE 1993 1. PM Morihiro Hosokawa (8/93-4/94) • the first coalition: Japan Renewal Party, Japan New Party, Sakigake, SDPJ, Komeito, DSP and Social Democratic League 2. PM Tsutomu Hata (4/94-6/94) • the Socialists defect 3. PM Tomiichi Murayama (6/94-1/96) • the new coalition: LDP, SDPJ and Sakigake 4. PM Ryutaro Hashimoto (1/96-7/98) • Lower House elections (October 1996) 5. PM Keizo Obuchi (7/98-4/00 ) 6. PM Yoshiro Mori (4/00-4/01) • Lower House elections (June 2000) 7. PM Junichiro Koizumi (4/01-present) • Upper House elections (July 2001) • Lower House elections (November 2003) • Upper House elections (July 2004)
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND (1/25-2/3)
THE TOKUGAWA PERIOD (1600-1868) A combination of national government (bakufu) with feudal domains (han) THE FALL OF THE TOKUGAWA SHOGUNATE 1. Commodore Perry "opens" Japan (1853). 2. The Commercial Treaties allow foreign powers to trade with Japan (1858). 3. Civil War (1865-68): the outer domains (Satsuma, Choshu) vs. the shogunate THE MEIJI RESTORATION 1. The outer domains win, and "restore" imperial rule (1868). 2. The Meiji reforms: centralization of power, social reforms, industrialization 3. The Meiji Constitution (1889) establishes a national assembly (Diet). THE EVOLUTION OF POLITICS IN THE MEIJI PERIOD 1. The Popular Rights Movement: Itagaki forms Risshisha (1874), Liberal Party (1881). 2. Prefectural assemblies established (1878). 3. Ito Hirobumi founds the Seiyukai (1900). 4. Doshikai established (1913), later becomes Kenseikai/ Minseito. TAISHO DEMOCRACY: THE ERA OF PARTY RULE (1918-32) 1. The Hara Cabinet (1918-22): the first party cabinet (Seiyukai) 2. The Kenseikai cabinets (1924-27): the liberal alternative 3. The Seiyukai returns, and moves the opposite direction under Gen. Tanaka (1927-29). 4. The Minseito' last stand (1929-31) s 5. The Manchurian Incident (1931) ends the era of party rule. THE RISE OF JAPANESE IMPERIALISM (1931-41) 1. The road to imperialism: defensive buildup (1868-80), imperialist diplomacy (1880-96), Sino-Japanese War (1894-95), Russo-Japanese War (1904-05), cooperative diplomacy (1919-31) 2. The Japanese invasion of Manchuria (1932-37) 3. The war with China (1937-45) 4. The road to Pearl Harbor (1939-41) THE SECOND WORLD WAR (1941-45) 1. Initial victories (early 1942) lead to increasing setbacks (starting June 1942). 2. Defeat (August 1945) THE OCCUPATION (1945-52) 1. Occupation reforms: • demilitarization • democratization — new constitution (1946) • social reforms — equal rights, land reform • economic reforms — break up of the zaibatsu 2. The reverse course
THE LEGAL FRAMEWORK (2/8)
A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE JAPANESE POLITICAL SYSTEM 1. A parliamentary system (vs. US presidential system) 2. The partial fusion of powers (vs. US separation of powers) • the role of the Cabinet 3. A strong executive branch (vs. US with stronger judicial and legislative branches) 4. How to pass a bill 5. A centralized political system (vs. US federal system) THE LEGAL SYSTEM 1. Law and the bureaucracy 2. Law and politics 3. The criminal justice system 4. A less litigious society? 5. Assessment • no effective judicial review • not a real rival power base • limits interest group access • influential in certain cases
ELECTORAL POLITICS (2/10)
THE ELECTORAL SYSTEM 1. The Lower House (House of Representatives) The old electoral system (prior to 1994) • 512 members • elections held when called by the government (but must be held within 4 years) • the Single Non-Transferable Vote (SNTV) system multi-member districts (1-6 members) voters select one candidate • implications of SNTV parties need a strategy for how many candidates to run in each district large parties (i.e. LDP) must run more than one candidate per district LDP candidates cannot distinguish themselves from other LDP candidates: many feel this encourages patronage and corruption. candidates can usually win with 15-20% of the vote, so they can win with concentrated support in one area, or diffuse support throughout the district. 2. The Upper House (House of Councillors) • 252 members • members serve 6-year terms, with 1/2 up for election every 3 years • 152 elected by SNTV (multi-member district) system • 100 elected by national district until 1982, by proportional representation since then
3. The relationship between the two houses • on ordinary bills: LH can override UH vote with a 2/3 majority. • on budget, treaties, PM election: LH vote stands after 30 days. THE NEW ELECTORAL SYSTEM FOR THE LOWER HOUSE 1. New system enacted 1/94, first election under new system held 10/96 2. Reduced from 512 to 500 members in 1994, reduced to 480 in 2000 3. 300 elected in “first-past-the-post” single-member districts • same system as in the US • favors large parties • tends to produce two dominant parties, as in the US or Britain 4. 200 elected by proportional representation (PR), reduced to 180 in 2000 • voters vote for a party, and then the PR seats are allocated to the various parties according to the percentage of the vote they receive in 11 regional blocs, above a minimum threshhold of 3%. • the parties produce party lists ranking their candidates, and the lists determine which candidates will fill the alloted number of seats (starting from No. 1 and working down the list). • so even small parties get roughly “proportional” representation. ELECTION CAMPAIGNS 1. The official campaign 2. The non-campaign CAMPAIGN ORGANIZATION 1. The organization of support 2. The koenkai (personal support organizations) 3. Implications • incumbent advantage and the second-generation (nisei) phenomenon • focus on material compensation, constituent service, and not on national policy CAMPAIGN FINANCING 1. Sources of financing: party, faction, businesses (directly to candidates), individuals 2. Mechanisms 3. Reforms
THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY (2/15)
WHY DID THE LDP DOMINATE FOR SO LONG? 1. Economic growth 2. Foreign policy “realism” 3. The business-agriculture alliance 4. Use of resources plus incumbency advantage 5. Flexibility and adaptation 6. Fragmentation of the opposition LDP ORGANIZATION 1. Factions 2. The Policy Research Council and party committees 3. The seniority system 4. The selection of leaders 5. Changes since 1993
THE OPPOSITION PARTIES (2/17)
THE TRADITIONAL OPPOSITION 1. The Social Democratic Party of Japan (SDPJ) • organization: strong reliance on public sector unions (Sohyo) • gradual decline 2. The Japan Communist Party (JCP) 3. The Democratic Socialist Party (DSP) • splits from SDPJ in 1960 • strong reliance on private sector unions (Domei) 4. Clean Government Party (Komeito) • Soka Gakkai (religious group) starts running candidates in 1955 • party formed in 1964 5. Social Democratic League (Shaminren) • tiny socialist splinter group 6. New Liberal Club • 6 members split from LDP in 1976, led by Yohei Kono THE ROLE OF THE TRADITIONAL OPPOSITION 1. Check the LDP 2. Influence policy THE NEW PARTIES 1. Japan New Party (Nihon Shinto) • formed by Morihiro Hosokawa in 1992 2. Japan Renewal Party (Shinseito) • formed by Ichiro Ozawa in 1993, nominally led by Tsutomu Hata 3. Harbinger Party (Sakigake) • formed by Masayoshi Takemura in 1993 4. New Frontier Party (Shinshinto) • formed 12/94 joining DSP, Komeito, Shaminren, JNP and Japan Renewal Party • disbanded 12/97, breaking into small groups 5. Liberal Party (Jiyuto) • Ozawa loyalists from the NFP • merged into Democratic Party in 2003 6. Democratic Party (Minshuto) • formed September 1996 by Yukio Hatoyama, mostly from Sakigake and SDPJ • merged in April 1998 with several groups from the former NFP 7. New Conservative Party (Hoshushinto) • former NFP/ Liberal/ DPJ politicians, currently part of the ruling coalition • merged into LDP in 2003
THE BUREAUCRACY (2/22)
ORGANIZATION 1. Recruitment and career pattern 2. Ethos 3. Internal structure THE ROLE OF THE BUREAUCRACY 1. Bureaucratic “autonomy” • bureaucrats vs. politicians • bureaucrats vs. industry (or interests) 2. Variations across ministries
MIDTERM QUIZ (2/24) INTEREST GROUPS (3/1)
INTEREST GROUP STRATEGIES 1. Mechanisms of influence: votes, money, lobbying, protest 2. Strategies reflect the possibilities of the Japanese political system • insiders vs. outsiders • bureaucratic route vs. political route BIG BUSINESS 1. Federations • the Federation of Economic Organizations (Keidanren), founded 1946 • the Federation of Employers’ Organizations (Nikkeiren), founded 1948 • Japan Committee for Economic Development (Keizai Doyukai), founded 1946 • Chamber of Commerce and Industry, founded 1878 • Japan Business Federation (Nippon Keidanren), merger of Keidanren and Nikkeiren in 2002 2. Industry Associations 3. Individual companies AGRICULTURE The Central Association of the Federation of Agricultural Cooperatives (Nokyo) LABOR UNIONS 1. The General Council of Trade Unions (Sohyo), founded 1950 2. The Japan Federation of Trade Unions (Domei), split from Sohyo in 1954 3. The Japanese Trade Union Confederation (Rengo), broad alliance formed 1987, incorporated Sohyo in 1989
THE MEDIA (3/3)
THE MAJOR PLAYERS 1. National newspapers (Yomiuri, Asahi, Mainichi, Nihon Keizai, Sankei) 2. Regional and local newspapers (Hokkaido, Tokyo/Chunichi, Nishi Nihon) 3. Wire services (Kyodo, Jiji) 4. TV networks (NHK 1 and 2, NTV, TBS, Fuji TV, TV Asahi, TV Tokyo) 5. New media THE ESTABLISHMENT MEDIA 1. The press club system • privileged access, government control of information, uniformity in coverage 2. Approach to coverage: morning and night “attacks” THE NON-ESTABLISHMENT MEDIA Weekly magazines and sports newspapers THE MEDIA AND POLITICS 1. Relatively small role in elections 2. Larger role in leading opinion and shaping the political agenda 3. Representation on policy councils RECENT CHANGES
CONTENDING MODELS (3/8)
THE MODELS 1. Popular images • Japan, Inc. • the Ruling Triad 2. The Johnson perspective 3. The pluralist perspective • Sato & Matsuzaki • Ramseyer & Rosenbluth 4. Bureaucrats and industry: Noble as a possible synthesis? 5. Bureaucrats and politicians: Muramatsu & Krauss as a possible synthesis? THE 5 SECRETS TO UNDERSTANDING THE JAPANESE POLICY PROCESS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
INCLUSION: PATTERNS OF INCORPORATION (3/10)
THE BUREAUCRATIC ROUTE 1. Bureaucratic-led bargaining 2. The policy councils (shingikai) • multiple roles: receive societal input, gather advice, persuade, wear out opponents • implications: biased representation, smooth implementation THE LDP ROUTE 1. When does the LDP get involved? • issues that bring political advantage, jurisdictional disputes, extreme conflict 2. Who does the LDP represent: narrow interests or a broader constituency? CHANGES SINCE 1993 CLASS EXERCISE Mock policy councils
EXCLUSION: PROTEST AND CONFLICT (3/15)
EXCLUSION 1. What do you do if you are not included? 2. Strengths/ weaknesses of protest as a strategy CASE 1: THE ANTI-NUCLEAR MOVEMENT 1. 1954 The Lucky Dragon No. 5 (Daigo Fukuryu Maru) incident 2. 1955 Japan Council Against Atomic and Hydrogen Bombs (Gensuikyo) • backed by JCP and SDPJ 3. 1961 National Council for Peace and Against Nuclear Weapons (Kakkin Kaigi) • backed by Domei, DSP, LDP 4. 1965 Japan Congress Against Atomic and Hydrogen Bombs (Gensuikin) • SDPJ wing of Gensuikyo splits off 5. Dual structure: vibrant local citizens movement combined with sclerotic and divided national organizations CASE 2: THE ENVIRONMENTAL MOVEMENT 1. Background • horrendous environmental degradation • Minamata disease: 46 die 1953-60 2. Citizens’ movements 3. Court cases: 4 major cases launched 1967-69 and resolved 1971-73 • two involved Minamata, one Itai-Itai disease, and one Yokkaichi asthma 4. 1969 Tokyo Metropolitan Environmental Pollution Control Ordinance 5. 1970 The Pollution Diet • 14 pieces of legislation, establishes Environment Agency
THE DEVELOPMENTAL STATE (3/17)
THE POLITICAL FOUNDATIONS OF JAPANESE INDUSTRIAL POLICY Bureaucratic autonomy, centralized government structure, close government-industry ties, bureaucratic discretion THE MECHANISMS OF INDUSTRIAL POLICY 1. Promotion of savings 2. Selective allocation of credit 3. Transfer and dissemination of technology 4. Control of foreign capital 5. Promotion of R&D 6. Trade Protection 7. Managed competition 8. Infrastructure subsidies THE PRIVATE SIDE OF INDUSTRIAL POLICY 1. Industrial groups (keiretsu) • horizontal keiretsu and the “main bank” system • vertical keiretsu (supplier networks) 2. Trade associations CHANGES SINCE 1973 CLASS DEBATE Resolved: “The Japanese government, with a carefully crafted industrial policy, created the Japanese economic miracle.”
THE CLIENTELISTIC STATE (3/29)
THE ROOTS OF CLIENTELISM 1. Political tradition 2. The electoral system 3. LDP style THE ELEMENTS OF JAPANESE CLIENTELISM 1. National policy as compensation (Calder): agriculture, welfare, small business policy 2. Localized compensation 3. Constituent service 4. Structural corruption DEVELOPMENTAL vs. CLIENTELISTIC STATE How are the two related?
THE CONSUMER MOVEMENT (3/31)
1. The producer bias in postwar economic policy 2. The political puzzle: Why did consumers tolerate this bias? • too weak (abused) ? • did not understand (confused) ? • or actually fared quite well (perfectly rational) ? 3. The evidence • not as weak as assumed: successfully promoted stronger quality, safety, and environmental regulation • distinctive policy preferences: opposed to import liberalization, deregulation 3. Explaining consumer groups’ distinctive policy preferences • history of late industrialization, war and recovery • state mobilization and manipulation (Garon thesis) • alliances with other groups 4. Implications for understanding Japan’s postwar political economy • consumer political weakness cannot explain producer bias in policy, because consumer group preferences support this bias • policy can reshape politics: the high growth strategy may have limited consumer group influence on those issues where the groups’ positions threatened this strategy • if state goals are close to societal goals, then how do we evaluate state autonomy?
THE ROLE OF WOMEN (4/5)
1. Women’s role in politics 2. Women’s role in business 3. Recent developments • changes in attitudes • changes in the labor market 4. Implications for politics
DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS (4/7)
THE AGING SOCIETY 1. The facts: longer lives, fewer births 2. Policy issues: welfare demands, fiscal crisis 3. Relevant variables: retirement age, immigration, tax system 4. Implications for politics GENERATIONAL CHANGE 1. Among voters 2. Among politicians 3. Implications VALUE CHANGE 1. Quality of life/ welfare 2. The environment 3. Corruption 4. Authority 5. Implications
IMMIGRATION AND INTERNATIONALIZATION (4/12)
SPECIAL GUEST LECTURE Mr. Ken Haig, Department of Political Science, UC Berkeley
CORRUPTION AND POLITICAL REFORM (4/14)
MAJOR SCANDALS 1. Kakuei Tanaka and political innovation 2. Lockheed (1976) 3. Recruit (1988) 4. Sagawa Kyubin – Kanemaru (1992) THE 1994 REFORMS 1. Electoral reform (300 single-member districts and 200 proportional rep. districts) 2. Campaign finance reforms • corporate donations to individual Diet members restricted to ¥500,000 ($5000) (and then later banned completely) • Diet members may have no more than one fund-raising organization 3. Have the 1994 reforms changed Japanese politics? OTHER REFORMS
THE ECONOMIC CRISIS (4/19)
CAUSES 1. Policy failure 2. Structural crisis POSSIBLE RESPONSES 1. Fiscal stimulus 2. Resolving the banking crisis 3. Deregulation POLITICAL CONSTRAINTS THE SUCCESS THAT SOURED How can we explain Japan' past economic success and its present failure? s
ADMINISTRATIVE REFORM AND DEREGULATION (4/21)
THE FIRST ADMINISTRATIVE REFORM COUNCIL (Rincho) 1961-64 1. Successes: limits the growth in bureaucratic personnel. 2. Failures: does not substantially improve public services or reform bureaucracy. THE SECOND RINCHO 1981-83 1. Impetus for reform 2. Successes: fiscal reform, privatization 3. Failures: deregulation, bureaucratic reform DEREGULATION THE HASHIMOTO ADMINISTRATIVE REFORM PROGRAM
US-JAPAN TRADE RELATIONS (4/26)
CAPITAL AND TRADE LIBERALIZATION IN THE 1960s AND 1970s 1. Forces for change 2. Patterns of liberalization • gradual, selective • often combined with compensatory measures U.S.-JAPAN TRADE TALKS IN THE 1980s AND 1990s 1. U.S. political context 2. Japanese political context 3. Major negotiations • Reagan: Market-Oriented Sector-Specific (MOSS) talks • The Semiconductor Agreement (1986) • Bush I: Structural Impediments Initiative (SII) • Clinton first term: Framework talks 4. The WTO and the Kodak-Fuji case RECENT DEVELOPMENTS 1. Clinton second term: the Enhanced Initiative on Deregulation 2. Bush II: the U.S.-Japan Economic Partnership for Growth
DEFENSE POLICY (4/28)
THE YOSHIDA DOCTRINE 1. Article 9 2. Codified constraints on defense THE SLOW TRANSITION IN DEFENSE POLICY (1970s) DEVELOPMENTS IN THE 1980s 1. JSP “realism” 2. GNP 1% broken with FY 1987 budget 3. Increased U.S.-Japan defense cooperation DEFENSE POLICY AFTER THE COLD WAR 1. Japanese response to the end of the Cold War 2. Japan' contribution to the Gulf War s 3. The Higuchi report (1994) 4. The Nye initiative (1995) 5. The Okinawa incident 6. The U.S.-Japan Defense Guidelines 7. Afghanistan 8. Iraq 9. The Article 9 debate
FOREIGN POLICY (5/3)
JAPAN’S POSTWAR ROLE 1. External constraints 2. Domestic constraints 3. A foreign policy without principle? A MORE ASSERTIVE FOREIGN POLICY? 1. Diplomacy 2. Foreign aid policy 3. The Japanese model exported? 3. Japan and international organizations CLASS DEBATE Resolved: “Japan is bound to revise Article 9 within the next five years.”
NEW CHALLENGES (5/5)
DOMESTIC POLITICS 1. Party realignment • a two party system? • possible policy cleavages 2. A new politics? • more party-centered/ policy-centered campaigns • more pluralistic • more open • cleaner • more powerful politicians • the new generation • the Koizumi phenomenon THE ECONOMY A NEW WORLD ROLE?