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					The Future of Information
       Technology

      University of Colorado
      September 14, 2000

              Paul Horn
          IBM Senior VP and
         Director of Research
World of the Future




        Information Technology
        will Change Everything
The Third Wave

   "We are witnessing nothing less than the
  rise of a new economy --- a digital
  economy --- a new global medium that will
  be the single most important global driver
  of business, economic, and social change in
  the next century"



                    -- LVG; June 14, 1999
Trend 1
 Progress in information technology (IT) continues at
 an ever increasing pace.
   On an extended time scale and over many different
   On an extended time scale and over many different
   generations of technology, the rate of growth in IT
   generations of technology, the rate of growth in IT
   performance has continued to increase. New technologies
   performance has continued to increase. New technologies
   for extremely dense storage, enormous bandwidth over
   for extremely dense storage, enormous bandwidth over
   optical fibers, and faster transistors are fueling this growth.
   optical fibers, and faster transistors are fueling this growth.



    Although in the next ten years substantial barriers to
    Although in the next ten years substantial barriers to
    further progress will be encountered in many areas, history
    further progress will be encountered in many areas, history
    has shown that we have always found new technologies to go
    has shown that we have always found new technologies to go
    beyond those which are reaching their limitations.
    beyond those which are reaching their limitations.
$1000 Buys...
                   1E+12
                                   Mechanical             Discrete transistor
                                   Electro-mechanical     Integrated circuit
                   1E+9
                                   Vacuum tube


                   1E+6


                   1E+3


                   1E+0
Computations/sec




                    1E-3


                    1E-6
                           1900   1920    1940     1960      1980         2000          2020
                                                   Year
                                                              after Kurzweil, 1999 & Moravec, 1998
Supercomputing Roadmap

                 100000

                   10000
                                           Human brain ops

                    1000           IBM Blue Gene
                                                            84% CGR
                                 Riken MDM*
                      100
   TeraFlops




                                    ASCI             Mouse brain ops
                        10
          IBM Deep Blue*
                         1
                         1995        2000        2005        2010       2015
                                                 Year
               * Special purpose machines, i.e. chess, molecular dynamics, protein folding.
                Source: ASCI Roadmap www.llnl.gov/asci, IBM
                Brain ops/sec: Kurzweil 1999, The Age of Spiritual Machines
                Moravec 1998, www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm
Implications

    For current applications, good enough performance thresholds
    For current applications, good enough performance thresholds
    will be passed for many compute platforms and components.
    will be passed for many compute platforms and components.
    (PCs, Single function servers, Displays, Hard disk drives)
    (PCs, Single function servers, Displays, Hard disk drives)



    Commoditization increases (silicon, disks, servers and raw
    Commoditization increases (silicon, disks, servers and raw
    bandwidth) driving providers to seek differentiation via new
    bandwidth) driving providers to seek differentiation via new
    features and higher levels of service.
    features and higher levels of service.



    Opportunities for differentiation abound but will require higher
    Opportunities for differentiation abound but will require higher
    risk and significant investment.
    risk and significant investment.



    Technical and economic thresholds will be passed, enabling new
    Technical and economic thresholds will be passed, enabling new
    applications and uses.
    applications and uses.
Trend 2
Connected computation everywhere will rapidly change the
interaction of people and objects with the digital world,
making pervasive devices the dominant means of information
access.
  The first wave of connectivity (1980's) linked people within a
  The first wave of connectivity (1980's) linked people within a
  business and between academic communities via e-mail.
  business and between academic communities via e-mail.
  The second wave of connectivity (1990's) enabled businesses and
  The second wave of connectivity (1990's) enabled businesses and
  growing numbers of people to interact via e-mail, web browsers
  growing numbers of people to interact via e-mail, web browsers
  and collaborative tools. Internet based business models and
  and collaborative tools. Internet based business models and
  communities have evolved.
  communities have evolved.
  The third wave of connectivity (2000's) will involve objects -
  The third wave of connectivity (2000's) will involve objects -
  products, everyday things and sensors - connecting the digital
  products, everyday things and sensors - connecting the digital
  and physical worlds. New paradigms such as locality-aware
  and physical worlds. New paradigms such as locality-aware
  devices, always-on mobile connectivity and environment-aware
  devices, always-on mobile connectivity and environment-aware
  products, will drive the intermixing of personal and business
  products, will drive the intermixing of personal and business
  activities and ever tighter IT integration into human lives.
  activities and ever tighter IT integration into human lives.
Physical Size of a Web Server

              1E+6
                         HP Vectra 5/90                  Full PC equivalent: Stanford
                                                         Matchbox combined with IBM
                                  Phar Lap               Microdrive

              1E+2                                   Stanford "Matchbox"
                                                         iReady TCP/IP chip

                                                                  U. Mass. "Matchhead"
 Size (cm3)




              1E-2
                                   2001: Integrated with
                                   sensor, <1E-4cm3 "chip"
                                   for 50 cents                                          Smart
                                                                                         dust?
              1E-6
                           1996                1998                 2000        2002        2004
                                                                    Year
               Web servers with demonstrations on the internet.
Cost of Equivalent Functionality (Chipset)

                1000
                                          802.11 wireless LAN    Cellular per 10Kb/s**
                                          GPS                    Imager (VGA)*



                  100



                    10
Cost ($)




                       1
                       1994                         1998                  2002                       2006
           *imager cost drop is slower, as pixels size is       Year   **assuming shared BW, i.e. cost of
                                                                       2Mb/s 3G cellular is $300 in 2002.
           limited by light wavelengths.
Implications

  Pervasive devices will become the dominant means of information
  Pervasive devices will become the dominant means of information
  processing and access.
  processing and access.

  New form factors will drive technology and innovation, and create
  New form factors will drive technology and innovation, and create
  opportunities for new applications and services.
  opportunities for new applications and services.

  Digitally connected objects will increasingly interact autonomously.
  Digitally connected objects will increasingly interact autonomously.

  Medical and other physiological needs will increasingly drive the
  Medical and other physiological needs will increasingly drive the
  evolution of the human cyborg.
  evolution of the human cyborg.

  Technical capabilities are catching up to perceptual and computational
  Technical capabilities are catching up to perceptual and computational
  capabilities of humans, but people still will be very aware that they
  capabilities of humans, but people still will be very aware that they
  are dealing with machines (ie. forget HAL).
  are dealing with machines (ie. forget HAL).

  The networks, servers and software infrastructure will be challenged.
  The networks, servers and software infrastructure will be challenged.
                                                                    I-4
Pervasive Devices Will Be the
Dominant Means of Information Access
                               10000



                                1000



                                 100



                                  10
                                               Mobile phone total   Mobile phone w/data   PC installed base
     Installed Base (Million




                                                                         capability

                                   1
                                       1998   2000      2002        2004      2006        2008      2010
Note: Does not include cars with driver information                   Sources: ResearchPortal.com, Semico,
systems (approximately 8% of 150 Million in 2006 -                    EE Times, Reuters, Gartner, Ericson...
Jupiter)
Trend 3
 A utility-like model for value delivery through IT
 will emerge, based on an intelligent infrastructure.
    Economic incentives increasingly support IT delivery through
    Economic incentives increasingly support IT delivery through
    an information utility paradigm. This paradigm takes
    an information utility paradigm. This paradigm takes
    advantage of economies of scale (redundancy, peak load
    advantage of economies of scale (redundancy, peak load
    handling, skills and knowledge) and the need for companies
    handling, skills and knowledge) and the need for companies
    to focus on core competencies rather than increasingly
    to focus on core competencies rather than increasingly
    complex IT management tasks. This shift is being driven
    complex IT management tasks. This shift is being driven
    by the rise of e-business, high-speed networks, and open
    by the rise of e-business, high-speed networks, and open
    interoperability standards.
    interoperability standards.

    An intelligent infrastructure is emerging to flexibly balance
    An intelligent infrastructure is emerging to flexibly balance
    the forces of centralization with opposing forces, such as
    the forces of centralization with opposing forces, such as
    limitations in local bandwidth, latency and the
    limitations in local bandwidth, latency and the
    heterogeneity of compute platforms.
    heterogeneity of compute platforms.
Implications

   No "grand centralization" will occur, rather a hierarchy of centralized tiers
   No "grand centralization" will occur, rather a hierarchy of centralized tiers
   will govern IT deployment.
   will govern IT deployment.

   The migration of intelligence into the network will ignite battles between
   The migration of intelligence into the network will ignite battles between
   platforms for infrastructure function (traditional IT vs networking
   platforms for infrastructure function (traditional IT vs networking
   technology).
   technology).

   New businesses models, based on a utility-like infrastructure will emerge
   New businesses models, based on a utility-like infrastructure will emerge
   based on interoperability standards.
   based on interoperability standards.

   IT costs will be reduced by deploying massively redundant low cost
   IT costs will be reduced by deploying massively redundant low cost
   component architectures, reducing costs over and above economies of scale.
   component architectures, reducing costs over and above economies of scale.

   IT value will be increasingly measured, managed and optimized using
   IT value will be increasingly measured, managed and optimized using
   business performance metrics.
   business performance metrics.

   IT labor will be increasingly displaced by technology, accelerating the
   IT labor will be increasingly displaced by technology, accelerating the
   change from a human-intensive to a knowledge-intensive business..
   change from a human-intensive to a knowledge-intensive business
Trend 4
 IT value will advance by building higher level software
 components, increasingly delivered as services, on
 winning application platforms.

     Higher level building blocks allow programmers to focus on
     Higher level building blocks allow programmers to focus on
     adding new functionality with more efficiency, flexibility
     adding new functionality with more efficiency, flexibility
     and speed to market, as well as involve subject matter
     and speed to market, as well as involve subject matter
     experts. As these building blocks mature, they
     experts. As these building blocks mature, they
     standardize and become part of the winning application
     standardize and become part of the winning application
     platform.
     platform.

     The high bandwidth connectivity of the Internet and
     The high bandwidth connectivity of the Internet and
     interoperability standards will allow software applications
     interoperability standards will allow software applications
     and services to be offered as building blocks to higher
     and services to be offered as building blocks to higher
     level applications and services through the net.
     level applications and services through the net.
                                                                                                                               Customer R
                     Next Generation e-Business Platform
                      Business-to-Business                      Enterprise
                           Processes                            Processes                                Business-to-
                                                                                                          Consumer
                              MRO
                           Procurement
                                                                                                          Processes
                                                            Accounting and Control
                            RFP/RFQ
                                                               Human Resources                               1:1 Marketing
                           Internet EDI
                                                                   Sales and                            Promotion /Loyalty
                                                                  Distribution                             Management
                            Contractor
                           Management
                                                                Production and                               Personalization
                           International                     Materials Management
                               Trade                                                                         Cross-Selling
                                                              Quality Management
                             Trading
                             Partner                          Project Management
                           Agreements
Supply Chain Manag




                                                       e-Commerce Building Blocks
                                                     Negotiation/Auctions        Privacy         Profiling
                                      Business
                                      Intelligence                  Payments
                                                                                    Integrated        Catalogs
                                                     Matchmaking/Brokerage          Sourcing
Trend 5
The e-business of the future will be dynamic, adaptive
and continuously optimized, depending on powerful
business analytics and knowledge management for survival.

 Data and information have exploded due to e-commerce, business
 Data and information have exploded due to e-commerce, business
 process automation (e.g. ERP, SCM, CRM), modeling and simulation and
 process automation (e.g. ERP, SCM, CRM), modeling and simulation and
 increased connectivity through the Internet and pervasive devices. In
 increased connectivity through the Internet and pervasive devices. In
 the highly competitive world of e-business, only companies with the
 the highly competitive world of e-business, only companies with the
 capability and structure to leverage this data to best advantage will
 capability and structure to leverage this data to best advantage will
 survive.
 survive.

 Sophisticated management and analysis of data will enable winning
 Sophisticated management and analysis of data will enable winning
 enterprises to rapidly and flexibly react to market events (sense and
 enterprises to rapidly and flexibly react to market events (sense and
 respond). For example, the static supply chains of today will be
 respond). For example, the static supply chains of today will be
 transformed by dynamic trading in business-to-business electronic
 transformed by dynamic trading in business-to-business electronic
 marketplaces.
 marketplaces.
Information Grows Exponentially

  Yottabyte 1024

                                                                                         80-100%
   Zetabyte          21
                  10
                                                           Online                        300%

   Exabyte           18
                                                            Internet
                  10
                                                                                       60%
   Petabyte          15                                     Static HTML
                  10
                                  200%
   Terabyte          12
                  10      98         00         02           04        06          08
  Static HTML = unchanging web pages, Internet = dynamic          100% CGR for structured data
  web pages and web accessible DBs, Online=computer               (billing, customer,
  accessible storage, e.g. HDD. Data includes multiple            transactions...etc) [Gartner 1999]
  copies in the world. Source: IBM
DB Query Price/Performance

                                               ($/QphD Leaders)

                                       10000




                                        1000

                                                      -77% CGR

                                         100

                                                     100 GB   1000 GB
                                                     300 GB   3000 GB
                                         10
             System Cost ($) / (quer




                                          1997         1998          1999            2000
                                                      System Available Date
  TPC-D benchmark became obsolete on February 16, 1999. TPC-D is replaced by TPC-H (random queries)
  and TPC-R (known queries, e.g. reports)
IBM Research Worldwide



            Watson           Zurich           Beijing
 Almaden




                     Haifa                              Tokyo
   Austin


                                      Delhi
Evolution of Role


   1970's        1980's           1990's      2000's
    Corporate     Collaborative    Work on       Create
    Funded        Team             Customer      Business
    Research      Shared           Problems      Advantage for
    Agenda        Agenda                         Customers
    Technology    Effectiveness                  Emerging
    Transfer                                     Business
                                                 Opportunities

                                                & External Partnerships
                                  & Research in the Marketplace
                 & Joint Programs
   Centrally Funded
Strategic Research Themes

  Pervasive computing
  Intelligent e-business infrastructure
     Platforms: (net.commerce, WebSphere,...)
     eUtilities
  Unstructured knowledge management
  Next generation web
  Growing our OEM business
     Communications & pervasive technology
     Storage
  Exploratory research
The Future of Information
       Technology

      University of Colorado
      September 14, 2000

              Paul Horn
          IBM Senior VP and
         Director of Research

				
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