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									 Current Economic Conditions
Prospects in the Louisville Area




        Stockyards Bank Annual Meeting
                      by
              Paul Coomes, Ph.D.
            Professor of Economics
                  March 2006
                Contents
Metro area population, jobs, payrolls, housing,
headquarters
comparison to peer metros
education and human capital issues
transportation issues (again)
policy
                                 Louisville and Fourteen Comparison Metropolitan Areas
                                                               Population        Growth, 1993 to
 Comparison         Metropolitan Areas                            2003                 2003
   Metros:          Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN               2,046,990      134,230     7.0%
                    Kansas City, MO-KS                            1,906,092      209,158 12.3%
Population Size
                    Columbus, OH                                  1,677,102      195,822 13.2%
 and Growth         Indianapolis, IN                              1,600,779      227,904 16.6%
   Louisville 9th   Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC             1,439,085      338,116 30.7%
                    Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, TN           1,372,121      246,987 22.0%
largest among
                    Memphis, TN-MS-AR                             1,238,859      129,475 11.7%
15 comparison       Jacksonville, FL                              1,197,332      206,812 20.9%
metros.             Louisville, KY-IN                              1,190,210       98,831    9.1%
                    Richmond, VA                                  1,138,485      136,436 13.6%
   only Dayton
                    Birmingham-Hoover, AL                         1,073,969        82,085    8.3%
and Birmingham      Raleigh-Cary, NC                                 887,501     274,925 44.9%
grew slower the     Dayton, OH                                       845,596      -12,091   -1.4%
last ten years.     Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA                      792,514       84,437 11.9%
                    Greensboro-High Point, NC                        662,065       90,784 15.9%
                    Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, May 2005. Metropolitan area definitions as of 2004. The
                    Louisville MSA includes thirteen counties.
                                    Population Growth, Metros and US
                                               (1970=100)
190

180

170

160

150
                                                                                                      United States
140

130

120
                                                                                                          Louisville
110

100

90
   70


          72


                 74


                        76


                               78


                                      80


                                             82


                                                    84


                                                           86


                                                                  88


                                                                         90


                                                                                92


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                                                                                                                   02
 19


        19


               19


                      19


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                                                                                                                 20
                                    Population Growth, Metros and US
                                               (1970=100)
190
                                                                                                            N ashville
180

170

160
                                                                                                          Lexington
150
                                                                                                      United States
140
                                                                                                   Indianapolis
130                                                                                                         Memphis
                                                                                                          Cincinnati
120
                                                                                                           Louisville
110

100

90
   70


          72


                 74


                        76


                               78


                                      80


                                             82


                                                    84


                                                           86


                                                                  88


                                                                         90


                                                                                92


                                                                                       94


                                                                                              96


                                                                                                     98


                                                                                                             00


                                                                                                                    02
 19


        19


               19


                      19


                             19


                                    19


                                           19


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                                                                                                           20


                                                                                                                  20
Recovery and Expansion
                                        Total N onagricultural Wage and Salary Jobs by Month
                                                           Louisville MSA
   Job Growth,                          Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Estimates for nonagricultural wage and salary jobs only;
                                                 exludes proprietors and double counts moonlighters. MSA with 13 counties.
   Metro Area           620,000

                                                                                                                                                2005
   finally adding
jobs again, 1.1%        610,000
growth in 2005                                                                                                                  2004

   but still well                                                                                                               2002
below peak in 2000      600,000

of 620,000                                                                                                          2003
     Annual Average
     1995     563,875   590,000
     1996     573,025
     1997     586,658
     1998     600,750
     1999     612,125   580,000
     2000     620,408
                                  Jan   Feb       Mar       Apr        May         Jun        Jul       Aug        Sep        Oct         Nov     Dec
     2001     608,192
     2002     597,050
     2003     595,608
     2004     599,167
     2005     605,742
                                          Annual Growth in Jobs, Louisville MSA vs. United States
                                                            1996 through 2005
                       3.0%

Job Growth Rates       2.5%
                                                                                                   United States
                       2.0%
  Louisville pattern                      Louisville MSA
same as US             1.5%

                       1.0%
   our area growing
slightly slower        0.5%

                       0.0%
                               1996          1997           1998           1999           2000         2001    2002   2003   2004   2005
                       -0.5%

                       -1.0%

                       -1.5%

                       -2.0%
                               Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Survey.

                       -2.5%
                                                  Growth in Jefferson County
                               Occupational Tax Collections, by Calendar Quarter, 1996 I to 2005 IV
                       10%

Occupational Tax
                       8%
  Collections in
Jefferson County       6%

   back to growth of   4%
4 to 5 percent
annually               2%

  $186 million in      0%
collections reflect
                          96




                                  97




                                              98




                                                           99




                                                                        00




                                                                                     01




                                                                                                  02




                                                                                                               03




                                                                                                                            04




                                                                                                                                         05
                        19




                                19




                                            19




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                                                                      20




                                                                                   20




                                                                                                20




                                                                                                             20




                                                                                                                          20




                                                                                                                                       20
$15 billion in wages   -2%
and salaries in
                       -4%
County in calendar                Source: Louisville-Jefferson County Revenue Commission. Year over year growth rate in quarterly occupational
                                       tax (1.25%) receipts. Receipts in 2005 reflect tax base of $15 billion in wages and salaries in County.
2005                   -6%
14%
                                                        Quarterly Growth in Wages &
                                                                  Salaries Paid
12%                                                     Louisville MSA vs. United States
        Year-over-year growth in
        Louisville MSA
10%
                                                                                                         Year-over-year growth in
                                                                                                         United States, SA
8%


6%


4%


2%


0%
      1989      1990     1991     1992     1993      1994   1995   1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005


-2%
             Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics


-4%
                                                            Housing Starts
                                        Louisville MSA - Single Family Building Permits Issued
                7,000
                           Source: US Bureau of the Census                                                                                               6,284
                                                                                                                                         6,198   6,184
                                                                                                 5,888
                6,000                                                                                    5,764           5,689
    Housing                                                                                                      5,396           5,460
                                                         5,086   5,028           5,060
                                                                                         4,882
  a very        5,000                            4,799
                                                                         4,660

strong decade
                4,000                    3,875
                                3,680
.                       3,401


                3,000



                2,000



                1,000



                   0
                        1989    1990     1991    1992    1993    1994    1995    1996    1997    1998    1999    2000    2001    2002    2003    2004    2005
                                                            Housing Starts, Louisville MSA vs. United States
                                                                     single family building permits
                                  7,000                                                                                          1.8
                                          Source: US Bureau of the Census
  Housing -                                                                                                                      1.6
                                  6,000
   MSA
                                                                                                                                 1.4
   single                         5,000
                                                                                                                                 1.2
family




                                                                                                                                       United States (mil)
                                           United States
housing starts
                 Louisville MSA




                                  4,000                                                                                          1
tracking
nation.                           3,000                                                                                          0.8


                                                                                                                                 0.6
                                  2,000
                                           Louisville MSA
                                                                                                                                 0.4

                                  1,000
                                                                                                                                 0.2


                                     0                                                                                           0
                                          1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Manufacturing
                                                   Manufacturing Employment, 2003
                                                                                                 Jobs per    Average
                                                                                                   100     compensati
                    Metropolitan Areas                                   Jobs, 2003             residents on per job
                    Indianapolis, IN                                           104,254                 6.5     $73,965
Comparison
                    Dayton, OH                                                  64,669                 7.6     $68,139
  Metros:           Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN                            130,667                 6.4     $66,533
Manufacturin        Columbus, OH                                                87,220                 5.2     $65,041
     g              Louisville, KY-IN                                           83,690                 7.0     $62,844
                    Richmond, VA                                                50,243                 4.4     $61,768
   Louisville 7th   Kansas City, MO-KS                                          85,276                 4.5     $61,157
highest in          Raleigh-Cary, NC                                            32,575                 3.7     $60,783
number of jobs,     Memphis, TN-MS-AR                                           55,063                 4.4     $59,041
3rd highest per     Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC                           94,124                 6.5     $57,175
capita.             Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, TN                         84,803                 6.2     $56,747
                    Jacksonville, FL                                            35,209                 2.9     $56,186
  5th highest in    Greensboro-High Point, NC                                   71,437                10.8     $49,719
pay per job.        Birmingham-Hoover, AL                                       45,514                 4.2     $49,321
                    Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA                                 34,063                 4.3     $46,917
                    Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, May 2005. Metropolitan area definitions as of 2004. The Louisville
                    MSA includes thirteen counties.
                                                       Manufacturing Employment Growth
                                              Louisville and N earby Competitor Metropolitan Areas
                                                                                      index 1990 = 100
Manufacturin       120
 g and Last
 Recession                                                                       N ashville
                   110
  Louisville hit                                                                                                               Louisville
hard by 2001
                                                                                                         Indianapolis
recession…         100

  but so were
competitors...                                                                                  Cincinnati
                   90
   now less                                                                                                                                  United States
manufacturing
                                                                                                                               Memphis
jobs than          80

fifteen years
                          Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statsistics; wage and salary workers only, excludes
ago                       proprietors; 2005 estimates preliminary.
                   70
                         1990    1991     1992      1993      1994     1995      1996      1997      1998     1999      2000      2001    2002   2003   2004   2005
                      Louisville MSA's Share of all US Manufacturing Jobs
0.60%




0.57%




0.54%




0.51%




0.48%




0.45%
        1990   1991   1992   1993   1994   1995   1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005
                                   Manufacturing Jobs: Kentucky and United States
           320,000                                                                                                            18,000


           310,000          United States                                                                                     17,500


           300,000                                                                                                            17,000


           290,000                                                                                                            16,500




                                                                                                                                       United States (000)
Kentucky




           280,000                                                                                                            16,000

                            Kentucky
           270,000                                                                                                            15,500


           260,000                                                                                                            15,000


           250,000                                                                                                            14,500


           240,000                                                                                                            14,000
                     1990   1991   1992   1993   1994   1995   1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004
                         Kentucky's Share of all US Manufacturing Jobs
1.85%


1.80%


1.75%


1.70%


1.65%


1.60%


1.55%


1.50%


1.45%


1.40%


1.35%
        1990   1991   1992   1993   1994   1995   1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004
Office Industries
                                        US Job Growth by Sector Since 1990
          Annual Earnings per Job,
                   2002
                                      $80,000

                                      $70,000

                                      $60,000

                                      $50,000

                                      $40,000

                                      $30,000

                                      $20,000

                                      $10,000

                                              $0
-4,000,000 -3,000,000 -2,000,000 -1,000,000        0       1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000
                                                       N et Job Growth, 1990 to 2003
                                        US Job Growth by Sector Since 1990
          Annual Earnings per Job,
                   2002
                                      $80,000

                                                           Information
                                      $70,000                         Finance &                                   Professional &
                                                                      Insurance                                   Business Services
                Manufacturing         $60,000              Wholesale Trade


                                      $50,000
                        Mining, Forestry
                                                                       Construction
                                                       Transportation,
                                      $40,000
                                                       Warehousing, Utilities
                                                                                                                  Education and
                                                                          Retail Trade                            Health Care
                                      $30,000

                                                                                         Leisure & Hospitality
                                      $20,000               Personal Services


                                      $10,000
                                                        Sources: job growth data from US Bureau of Labor Statistics; earnings per
                                                        job data from US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
                                              $0
-4,000,000 -3,000,000 -2,000,000 -1,000,000        0       1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000
                                                       N et Job Growth, 1990 to 2003
                                   N umber of Jobs per 10,000 Residents, 2002
           in Information, Professional & Technical Services, Finance and Insurance Industries
1,200



1,000



 800



 600



 400



 200

        Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
   0
                                   N umber of Jobs per 10,000 Residents, 2002
           in Information, Professional & Technical Services, Finance and Insurance Industries
1,200
        Massachussets



1,000

              Virginia
                        Illinois
 800

                                                    Missouri
                                                               Ohio
 600                                                                  Tennessee
                                                                                  Indiana
                                                                                        Kentucky
                                                                                          West Virginia
 400
                                                                                                   Mississippi




 200

        Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
   0
                                     Professional and Technical Service Employment, 2003
                                                                                                Jobs per    Average
                                                                                                  100     compensati
                   Metropolitan Areas                                    Jobs, 2003            residents on per job
                   Kansas City, MO-KS                                         81,721                  4.3     $48,652
 Comparison
                   Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN                            77,772                  3.8     $43,082
   Metros:         Columbus, OH                                               71,700                  4.3     $46,034
Professional &     Indianapolis, IN                                           57,637                  3.6     $43,181
  Technical        Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC                          53,484                  3.7     $48,283
   Services        Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, TN                        52,931                  3.9     $42,480
                   Raleigh-Cary, NC                                           45,616                  5.1     $49,592
  Louisville       Jacksonville, FL                                           42,420                  3.5     $41,735
11th highest in    Birmingham-Hoover, AL                                      40,145                  3.7     $47,148
number of jobs,    Richmond, VA                                               38,577                  3.4     $48,543
13th highest per   Louisville, KY-IN                                          36,078                  3.0     $38,839
capita.            Memphis, TN-MS-AR                                          30,928                  2.5     $33,212
                   Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA                                28,747                  3.6     $44,068
   13th highest    Dayton, OH                                                 28,039                  3.3     $45,973
in pay per job.    Greensboro-High Point, NC                                  19,632                  3.0     $36,979
                   Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, May 2005. Metropolitan area definitions as of 2004. The Louisville
                   MSA includes thirteen counties.
                                            N umber of Fortune 1000 Headquarters
                                        Louisville and 14 Comparison Metropolitan Areas
                                                                           Source: www.fortune.com

                                 Cincinnati                                                                                         18
                                                                                                                                         19

                                                                                                                         14
      Major Corporate            Columbus                                                                                14

       Headquarters               Charlotte                                                                    12
                                                                                                                    13

   Louisville remains in 12th   Kansas City                                                          10
                                                                                                          11                       2005
place among the 15                                                                                             12                  2004
                                 Richmond                                                            10
comparison cities.
                                Indianapolis                                                    9
                                                                                                9
  Three smaller markets have
                                  Memphis                                                   8
more headquarters:                                                                              9

Richmond, Birmingham,           Birmingham                                          7
                                                                                            8
Omaha.                                                                                      8
                                Jacksonville                                        7

                                  Nashville                                         7
                                                                                6

                                    Omaha                                       6
                                                                                6
                                                                                                2005 Ranking (of 1000)
                                                                       4                        Humana (162nd)
                                  Louisville                           4                        Yum Brands (249th)
                                                                                                Kindred Healthcare (499th)
                                Greensboro                 2
                                                               3                                Brown-Forman (707th)

                                    Dayton         1
                                                           2

                                    Raleigh                2
                                                           2

                                               0       2           4        6           8           10     12        14       16   18     20
                                  Louisville and Fourteen Comparison Metropolitan Areas

                                                                     Average Wages
                                                                     and Salaries per
 Comparison      Metropolitan Areas                                     Job, 2003                Growth, 1993 to 2003
   Metros:       Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC                            $39,805              $13,795      53.0%
 Average Pay     Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN                              $37,065              $11,092      42.7%
                 Kansas City, MO-KS                                           $37,055              $11,598      45.6%
  Louisville     Richmond, VA                                                 $36,986              $11,402      44.6%
13th largest     Raleigh-Cary, NC                                             $36,980              $12,849      53.2%
among 15         Indianapolis, IN                                             $36,805              $10,810      41.6%
                 Columbus, OH                                                 $36,473              $11,197      44.3%
comparison
                 Birmingham-Hoover, AL                                        $35,979              $11,435      46.6%
metros.          Memphis, TN-MS-AR                                            $35,978              $11,488      46.9%
   seventh       Dayton, OH                                                   $35,576               $9,402      35.9%
                 Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, TN                          $35,449              $10,736      43.4%
fastest growth
                 Jacksonville, FL                                             $35,302              $10,797      44.1%
rate over last   Louisville, KY-IN                                            $34,252              $10,621     44.9%
ten years.       Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA                                  $34,145              $11,049      47.8%
                 Greensboro-High Point, NC                                    $32,873               $9,494      40.6%
                 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, May 2005. Metropolitan area definitions as of 2004. The Louisville
                 MSA includes thirteen counties.
              Education
some fresh educational attainment data
      for large central counties
                                     Ra                                                                                                % of adults with HS degree
                                       le
                                          i     gh




                                                                  76
                                                                                                                             78
                                                                                                                                  80
                                                                                                                                          82
                                                                                                                                                84
                                                                                                                                                     86
                                                                                                                                                           88
                                                                                                                                                                    90
                                                                                                                                                                                           92
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MSA (Central County)
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                         G                  (D
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                                                                                                                                                                         90% confidence bands




                                   sb
                                                                                                                                                                                                     High School Attainment Rates, 2004




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                                                                                                                                  % of adults with College degree
                                     Ra
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                                          i  gh




                                                                  15
                                                                                                                             20
                                                                                                                                   25
                                                                                                                                         30
                                                                                                                                                35
                                                                                                                                                      40
                                                                                                                                                             45
                                                                                                                                                                                         50
                                                                                                                                                                                              55
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                                                                       Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey
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MSA (Central County)
                                   n                  rs
                                      (M                  on
                         In                 on                )
                                                                                                                                                                                                   College Attainment Rates, 2004




                             di                 tg
                                 an                om
                                     ap                  er
                                         ol                 y)
                            Lo              is
                                                (M
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                                                              College Attainment and Earnings per Job
                                                            Louisville and 14 Comparison Metro Areas, 2000
                                             $39,000
annual earnings per job, non-manufacturing




                                             $37,000


                                             $35,000
             industries, 2000




                                             $33,000


                                             $31,000


                                             $29,000


                                             $27,000


                                             $25,000
                                                       20   22   24     26      28       30      32       34    36   38   40
                                                                        % of adults with college degree, 2000
                                                                    College Attainment and Earnings per Job
                                                                  Louisville and 14 Comparison Metro Areas, 2000
                                             $39,000

                                                                                        Charlotte
annual earnings per job, non-manufacturing




                                             $37,000
                                                                         Memphis                    Kansas City
                                             $35,000
                                                                                                        Richmond
                                                                                                                                 Raleigh
             industries, 2000




                                             $33,000
                                                                                                       Columbus
                                                            Louisville
                                             $31,000
                                                                         Dayton
                                                                           Greensboro
                                             $29,000


                                             $27,000


                                             $25,000
                                                       20        22         24     26      28         30          32   34   36        38   40
                                                                                   % of adults with college degree, 2000
                             ENROLLMENTS – 18 Louisville Area
                                     Institutions
                        Enrollments and Awards, Louisville MSA Postsecondary Institutions
Postsecondary Enrollments, Fall semester                           2000     2001       2002      2003      2004
BELLARMINE UNIVERSITY                                                2,848    2,982      3,294     3,134     2,888
DAYMAR COLLEGE-LOUISVILLE                                               97       86        113       227       296
INDIANA UNIVERSITY-SOUTHEAST                                         6,427    6,557      6,716     6,408     6,238
ITT TECHNICAL INSTITUTE                                                354      358        402       495       686
IVY TECH STATE COLLEGE-SOUTH CENTRAL                                 1,933    2,035      2,716     2,917     3,050
JEFFERSON COMMUNITY COLLEGE                                          9,520    9,227      9,390     9,645    10,106
JEFFERSON TECHNICAL COLLEGE                                          1,512    3,246      3,582     3,697     3,694
LOUISVILLE BIBLE COLLEGE                                               130        0          0         0         0
LOUISVILLE PRESBYTERIAN THEOLOGICAL SEMINARY                           250      235        227       193       184
LOUISVILLE TECHNICAL INSTITUTE                                         612      623        624       670       645
OTTAWA UNIVERSITY-JEFFERSONVILLE                                         0        0          0        48        76
RETS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY                                           365      411        327       350        68
SPALDING UNIVERSITY                                                  1,632    1,670      1,702     1,658     1,698
SPENCERIAN COLLEGE                                                     201      584        928     1,326     1,254
SULLIVAN UNIVERSITY                                                  3,212    4,402      4,646     4,962     4,860
THE SOUTHERN BAPTIST THEOLOGICAL SEMINARY                            2,320    2,443      2,716     2,904     2,983
UNIVERSITY OF LOUISVILLE                                            19,771   19,682     20,416    20,605    20,729
UNIVERSITY OF PHOENIX-LOUISVILLE CAMPUS                                  0        0          0         0       116
Total, Louisville Metropolitan Area                                 51,184   54,541 57,799        59,239    59,571
                               DEGREES AWARDED
Awards below Associate level, Academic Year ending Spring   2001     2002     2003     2004
DAYMAR COLLEGE-LOUISVILLE                                        4        3        9        15
INDIANA UNIVERSITY-SOUTHEAST                                    10        5       16        41
IVY TECH STATE COLLEGE-SOUTH CENTRAL                            67       61       70       110
JEFFERSON COMMUNITY COLLEGE                                      2       23       41        90
JEFFERSON TECHNICAL COLLEGE                                    251      268      545       661
LOUISVILLE BIBLE COLLEGE                                         1        1        0         5
LOUISVILLE TECHNICAL INSTITUTE                                 109      122      114       130
RETS ELECTRONIC INSTITUTE                                       16       36        9         5
SPENCERIAN COLLEGE                                             215      211      335       403
SULLIVAN UNIVERSITY                                            228      182       99       117
UNIVERSITY OF LOUISVILLE                                       117      118      117       112
Total, Louisville Metropolitan Area                          1,020    1,030    1,355     1,689

Associate Degrees
DAYMAR COLLEGE-LOUISVILLE                                       26       28       14       22
INDIANA UNIVERSITY-SOUTHEAST                                   130      125      140      145
ITT TECHNICAL INSTITUTE                                        119      129      102      120
IVY TECH STATE COLLEGE-SOUTH CENTRAL                           143      176      188      211
JEFFERSON COMMUNITY COLLEGE                                    424      401      432      579
JEFFERSON TECHNICAL COLLEGE                                     36       16       38       52
LOUISVILLE BIBLE COLLEGE                                         5        3        6        5
LOUISVILLE TECHNICAL INSTITUTE                                 168      169      210      183
RETS ELECTRONIC INSTITUTE                                      122       99      109      136
SOUTHERN BAPTIST THEOLOGICAL SEMINARY                           14       15        4       10
SPALDING UNIVERSITY                                              6        8       12        5
SPENCERIAN COLLEGE                                              19        6       72      189
SULLIVAN UNIVERSITY                                            299      590      412      379
UNIVERSITY OF LOUISVILLE                                        63       70       38       45
Total, Louisville Metropolitan Area                          1,574    1,835    1,777    2,081
Awards (cont), Academic Year ending Spring     2001     2002     2003     2004
Bachelors Degrees
BELLARMINE UNIVERSITY                             390      393      467      401
INDIANA UNIVERSITY-SOUTHEAST                      505      530      606      622
LOUISVILLE BIBLE COLLEGE                            4        4        4        6
LOUISVILLE PRESBYTERIAN THEOLOGICAL SEMINARY        1        0        0        0
OTTAWA UNIVERSITY-JEFFERSONVILLE                    0        0        0        4
SOUTHERN BAPTIST THEOLOGICAL SEMINARY              26       18       71       71
SPALDING UNIVERSITY                               239      252      183      221
SULLIVAN UNIVERSITY                               192      313      209      323
UNIVERSITY OF LOUISVILLE                        1,880    1,928    1,905    1,975
UNIVERSITY OF PHOENIX-LOUISVILLE CAMPUS             0        0        0        0
Total, Louisville Metropolitan Area             3,237    3,438    3,445    3,623

Masters Degrees
BELLARMINE UNIVERSITY                             177      254      205      228
INDIANA UNIVERSITY-SOUTHEAST                      157      218      196      264
LOUISVILLE BIBLE COLLEGE                            6        1        5        9
LOUISVILLE PRESBYTERIAN THEOLOGICAL SEMINARY       12       10       15       12
OTTAWA UNIVERSITY-JEFFERSONVILLE                    0        0        0        0
SOUTHERN BAPTIST THEOLOGICAL SEMINARY              44       53       63       59
SPALDING UNIVERSITY                               100      110      159      220
SULLIVAN UNIVERSITY                                23       28       60       96
UNIVERSITY OF LOUISVILLE                        1,134    1,139    1,061    1,175
UNIVERSITY OF PHOENIX-LOUISVILLE CAMPUS             0        0        0        0
Total, Louisville Metropolitan Area             1,653    1,813    1,764    2,063

Doctoral Degrees
LOUISVILLE PRESBYTERIAN THEOLOGICAL SEMINARY        7        4       13        6
SOUTHERN BAPTIST THEOLOGICAL SEMINARY              64       57       86       75
SPALDING UNIVERSITY                                34       27       49       36
UNIVERSITY OF LOUISVILLE                           65       90       89      106
Total, Louisville Metropolitan Area               170      178      237      223

First Professional Degrees
LOUISVILLE PRESBYTERIAN THEOLOGICAL SEMINARY      27        30       36      26
SOUTHERN BAPTIST THEOLOGICAL SEMINARY            137       146      185     164
UNIVERSITY OF LOUISVILLE                         315       321      323     330
Total, Louisville Metropolitan Area              479       497      544     520
                                        Awards from N ational Institutes of Health
                                             to the University of Louisville
$80,000,000
               Source: National Institutes for Health

$70,000,000                                                                                                    rank among all
                                                                                                               institutions = 103rd
$60,000,000

                                                                                                                                      $49,273,536
$50,000,000
                                                                                                                        $43,677,904

$40,000,000
                                                                                                          $34,146,214

$30,000,000                                                                                 $27,574,124
               rank among all
               institutions = 204th
$20,000,000                                                                   $18,293,743
                                                                $13,072,282
                                $7,772,541         $9,161,387
$10,000,000   $6,867,073


        $0
                 1996               1997                1998       1999          2000          2001          2002          2003          2004
                                                                              Fiscal Year
           Federal Research Grants and Contracts Awarded to Medical Schools,
                                  by Metro Area, 2004
  NASHVILLE                                                                                                              $253,007,192

BIRMINGHAM                                                                                             $207,078,637

INDIANAPOLIS                                                $102,406,769

 CINCINNATI                                              $92,000,206

  COLUMBUS                                       $77,046,216

 LEXINGTON                                  $62,202,492

  RICHMOND                                 $59,133,196

    MEMPHIS                         $46,912,901

     OMAHA                        $41,297,597
                                                                  Source: National Institutes of Health. Total federal
  LOUISVILLE                     $40,117,515                      research awards, including grants, fellowships and
                                                                  contracts, to U.S. med schools in 2004 was approx.
 KANSAS CITY                     $37,726,201                      $11.2 billion.

    DAYTON          $8,884,435

               $-            $50,000,000           $100,000,000           $150,000,000      $200,000,000        $250,000,000       $300,000,000
      Federal Research Grants and Contracts Awarded to Medical Schools,
                     Growth FY00 to FY04, by Metro Area

  LOUISVILLE                                                                      38%

  NASHVILLE                                                  27%

     OMAHA                                 19%

   COLUMBUS                             17%

BIRMINGHAM                              17%

 LEXINGTON                        13%

INDIANAPOLIS                   13%

    MEMPHIS                    12%

    DAYTON                  11%
                                        Source: National Institutes of Health.
  RICHMOND                8%            Federal research grants and contracts
                                        awarded to med schools increased by 16%
 CINCINNATI          3%                 between fiscal years 2000 and 2004.


 KANSAS CITY   -5%
Transportation Issues
                         Annual Hours of Delay per Louisville Area Traveler
                                          at peak hours

45
                                                                                                          42                          42
          Louisville now ranks      23rd
                                   highest in                                                      39             39
                                                                                                                                 40
40                                                                                         38
          congestion among 85 largest urbanized                                                                          36
35        areas….had fallen as low as 50th.                                        34


30                                                                  29
                                                                            27
                                                             25
25


20                                                      19

                               15                  15
15                                  14   14
                          12
                                              11
     10    10       10
10              9
                                                             Source: Texas Transportation Institute; refers to urbanized area.

5


0
     1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
       Extremes
 Los Angeles: 93 hours
Brownsville, TX: 4 hours
                     Revenue Sharing Program Funds Per Capita, 2001
                   Distribution of Kentucky Gasoline Tax Receipts, by County
$350


$300
       Robertson

$250

       Hickman
$200     Owsley
                                              average of counties:
$150                                          $91 per capita
$100

                                                                               Kenton
                                                                                           Fayette
$50

                                                                               Jefferson
 $0
                            Redistribution of State Gas Tax Dollars, FY02
                                       120 Kentucky Counties
 $5,000,000
                   Revenue Sharing Dollars Received minus Estimated Gas Tax Dollars Contributed to
                   Fund
         $0
               0             20             40            60             80            100                  120
                                                                                              Daviess
                                                                                               Boone
 -$5,000,000
                                                                                             Campbell
                                                                                              Kenton
                                                                                                Fayette
-$10,000,000

                     96 net winner counties, $58 million annual redistribution
-$15,000,000



-$20,000,000


                                                                                                Jefferson
-$25,000,000



-$30,000,000
         ‘formula of fifths’
for $185 million distributed under County
  Road Aid, Rural Secondary Road Aid
         KRS 177.360, created 1948

 1/5 apportioned equally among 120
 counties
 1/5 apportioned based on each county’s
 share of total State rural population
 1/5 apportioned based on each county’s
 share of total State rural road mileage
 2/5 apportioned based on each county’s
 share of the total State rural land area
                       Transportation Funds Generated and Spent
                           in Jefferson County, Last Ten Years
$250,000,000



$200,000,000

                             Revenues collected in Jefferson County, including federal and state
                             gasoline taxes, state motor vehicle sales taxes, truck and other fees
$150,000,000

                         Cumulative net loss = $1.2 billion
$100,000,000



 $50,000,000
                              Expenditures in Jefferson County, including federal and state road
                              construction, state revenues sharing and maintenance dollars

         $0
               1992   1993      1994      1995      1996      1997      1998      1999      2000     2001
          Policy and Action
need major state investment in JCTCS this
year
need major state investments in transportation
for a decade
need to improve business climate…RTW,
workers comp, individual income tax rates
        for research reports, see


http://monitor.louisville.edu
                           Undergraduate Degrees Awarded per 100,000 Residents
                         Louisville and 15 Comparison MSAs, 2003-04 Academic Year
1,800

1,600
                   Certificates and Degrees of Less than 2 years
1,400
                   Associate Degrees
1,200

1,000

 800

 600

 400
                  Bachelor Degrees
 200

   0
                     S




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