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					REALTIME FLOOD ALERT AND FLOOD SIMULATION
       IN THE PUYALLUP RIVER BASIN
Contacts about the project
                                           Project
Report Abstract                            •   U.S. Geological Survey cooperative project
                                               with Pierce County, Public Works, Wash.
                             Mt. Rainier
                                           •   Develop an operational system to provide
                                               information about current and forecasted flow
                                               conditions on the major rivers in the Puyallup
                                               River Basin.
                                           Flood Simulation
                                           •         a numerical model developed by the
                                               US Corps of Engineers, simulates discharge
                                           •
                                               provides input to the model


                                           •   A user-interactive interface between the
                                               SSARR model, data inputs, and model
                                               outputs
                                           •   Provides graphical displays of flood alerts
                                               and simulated and observed hydrologic data
   Where is the Puyallup River Basin?
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                               Contacts
Mark Mastin, project chief and author of the report, is a hydrologist with the
U.S.Geological Survey/Water Resources Division at the Washington District
office in Tacoma, Wash.
253-428-3600 x2609               U.S.Geological Survey
                                 1201 Pacific Ave., Suite 600
                                 Tacoma, WA 98402
Email: mcmastin@usgs.gov
Office Home Page:


Randy Brake, is a river systems engineer with Pierce County River
Improvement, a division of the Pierce County Water Programs within the
Public Works department, and the primary user of SSARRMENU.
253-798-4651                     Pierce County Water Programs
                                 River Improvement Division
                                 9315 Gravelly Lake Drive S.W.
                                 Lakewood, WA 98499
email: RBRAKE@CO.PIERCE.WA.US

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Real-Time Flood Alert and Simulation of River Flood Discharges in the Puyallup
                          River Basin, Washington
                                            By M.C. Mastin
                      U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report


  ABSTRACT
  In a cooperative project, Pierce County and the U.S. Geological Survey have developed an operational tool called the
  Puyallup Flood-Alert System to alert users of impending floods. The system acquires real-time meteorological and
  hydrological data to make real-time flood simulations for the major rivers in the Puyallup River Basin and provides a
  flood-alert computer display. The system consists of a network of U.S. Geological Survey-operated river discharge
  and stage, precipitation and temperature gages, a numerical watershed and flow-routing model, and a computer
  interface. The Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation (SSARR) numerical watershed and flow-routing
  model is the heart of the system that makes real-time and forecast simulations based on real-time data from the
  gaging network and precipitation and temperature forecasts from the National Weather Service.

  The watershed model was calibrated to four storms in water years 1995 and 1996 and validated (runoff parameters
  held constant) with four storms in the 1996 and 1997 water years. Two-thirds of the simulated peak discharges for
  the calibration storms were within 36 percent of the observed peak discharge and two-thirds of the 5-day runoff totals
  were within 17 percent. For the validation storms, two-thirds of the simulated peak discharges were within 30
  percent of the observed peak discharges and two-thirds of the 5-day runoff totals were within 24 percent.

  SSARRMENU, a customized user interface for the Puyallup Flood-Alert System, is the central software that provides
  a graphical display of flood-alerts, model input and output, makes retrievals of hydrologic and meteorological data
  from the U. S. Geological computer, and makes both backup- and storm-mode flood simulations. With
  SSARRMENU operating on their computer, Pierce County has an increased ability to evaluate current and near-
  future floods and to efficiently allocate its resources to potential trouble spots.

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    Mt Rainier as view from Tacoma, Wash.
Mt. Rainier is the highest (14,410 feet) mountain in the Cascade Mountain Range. During
the winter when floods generally occur, much of the precipitation on the mountain is in the
form of snow and contributions to flood runoff is minimal. During the summer, however,
snow and glacier melt from the mountain are important contributions to maintaining stream
flows in the White River and the main stem of the Puyallup River.




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Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Routing (SSARR)
 SSARR consists of a numerical watershed model and a streamflow
 routing model. Streamflow is simulated in subbasins from precipitation
 and temperature inputs. The snowband version of SSARR, which was
 used in the Puyallup River Basin model, divides subbasins into elevation
 zones and simulates snow accumulation and melt. A storage-routing
 model routes flows through channel and reservoirs under free-flow and
 controlled-flow conditions.
 SSARR was developed by the North Pacific Division of the U.S. Corps of
 Engineers and is used in operational river forecasting and river
 management of the Columbia River.


Schematic diagram of the                         Flow chart of simulated
SSARR network in the                             runoff from a snowband
Puyallup River Basin model




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Schematic Diagram
Schematic of the network of subbasins,
channel reaches, reservoirs, and
summing points used in the Puyallup
River Basin model, Washington




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Flow chart
Flow chart of the simulated
runoff from a snowband for the
Puyallup River Basin model,
Washington




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Return
PUYALLUP RIVER BASIN




                       Return to first screen
Generalized flowpaths of field data to Pierce County and the SSARRMENU program


                             (satellite)
                                                        Return        More about
                                                                      SSARRMENU




Pierce County Public Works
Opening Screen of SSARRMENU
This is the opening screen of the SSARRMENU program showing Menu Items, the Alert
Map, and Model Run Information Window
                                                  Menu Items




                                                                         Alert Map




                                                                            Model Run
                                                                       Information Window




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Model Run Information Window
Model runs should be started when initial
conditions of previous model runs have
been stored so that continuity is maintained
between model runs. The Model Run
Information Window provides the times
when initial conditions have been stored
and information on the last model run.



           Model Run Times
 Also shown is the Model Run Times
 dialog box that allows users to enter the
 beginning and ending times of the next
 model run and select from the two time-
 step options. These two windows in
 SSARRMENU are examples of how the
 interface facilitates the running of the
 SSARR model by the user.


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   Schematic of Menu Items for SSARRMENU
                             (click on one of these buttons  for
                             example plots or more information)


                                               SSARRMENU
                                                                                            Top-level menu items
                  Retrieve Data       Model Runs     Basin Status         Text Files        that are visible on the
                                                                                            menu bar of the
                                                                                            opening screen
                     Pick Plot          Initialize     SMI plots        Select Data Files
Menu items
activated after    Data Storage        Run Model       SWE plots       Select SSARR Files
first selecting
the top-level      Load (Telenet)        Adjust        Prec Plots           Log File
menu item
                  Data Conversion     Forecast Run   Water Bal. Plot


                    Plot Precip.


                  Prec. Sta. Select




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Pick Plot
From the Data/Pick Plot menu item, hydrographs of simulated and observed
discharge are produced by ‘clicking’ on the stations on the Alert Map. In this
example, discharge is plotted for the Puyallup River at Orting stream gage during
the February 1996 peak of record at this site.




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Precipitation Plots
The user is allowed to view the precipitation data prior to the data
conversion and select those stations with good data to be used in the
model runs. SSARRMENU automatically computes subbasin
precipitation time series based on the user-selected list of stations.




                                                                   In this example,
                                                                   three of the six
                                                                   precipitation
                                                                   stations in the
                                                                   basin are shown




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Data Conversion/ Temperature Plot
Before the data is converted from USGS-format to SSARR format, the user may
choose to plot the temperature data and deselect those stations that may have bad data.
Only the selected stations are used in the model runs.




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Adjust Model Run
This is an example of an ‘Adjust’ model run on the
Upper Puyallup subbasin. This type of model run is
generally made just prior to a forecast model run in
order to begin the forecast model run with the
simulated discharge in reasonably close agreement
with the observed discharge

 Note in the upper hydrograph, that the simulated
discharge is significantly less than the observed
discharge at the end of the model run. The model is
rerun for the same period using the SSARR model
automatic adjust algorithm as seen in the lower
hydrograph. In order to adjust the simulated
discharge, the amount of precipitation was increased
from 6.61 inches of precipitation in the unadjusted
run to 8.48 inches in the adjusted run for the three-
day time period.

                   Click here to see the results of
                   the Forecast model run that
                   followed the Adjust model run




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Forecast Model Run
This is an example of a forecast model run that was run after an adjust model run was made for the
Upper Puyallup subbasin.            Click here to see the adjust model run.

The observed discharge and precipitation plot was added after the forecast model run was made
when the data became available. Precipitation and temperature inputs for the forecast model run
are provided by the National Weather Service at six-hour time steps.



                            UPPER PUYALLUP SUBBASIN




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        SSARRMENU provides text files of simulated discharge for the user.
                                    Time code representing February 5, 1996 at 0800
                                    hours for the first value in the row of eight values.

                                                                                       The letter code in the
                                                                                       column near the left side of
                                                                                       this file is the SSARR time
                                                                                       series code that identifies the
                                                                                       data corresponding to it.




                                                                                       Click on the button below
                                                                                       for a listing of the SSARR
                                                                                       time series codes used in
                                                                                       the Puyallup River Basin
                                                                                       model




Simulated discharge, in cubic feet per
second, from the Carbon River Subbasin
on February 7, 1996 at 12:00 noon.
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Time Series Codes used in the Puyallup River Basin Model
SUBBASINS                                                      BASIN PRECIP.                       FORECASTED TEMP.
UPPUY           Upper Puyallup River Subbasin                  UPPP                                STMP - Stampede Pass
LWPUY           Lower Puyallup River Subbasin                  LPUP                                FTLT - Fort Lewis
UPWHT           Upper White River Subbasin                     UPWP
LWWHT           Lower White River Subbasin                     LWHP
SOPRE           South Prairie Creek Subbasin                   SOPP
CARBON          Carbon River Subbasin                          CARP
GRNWTR          Greenwater River Subbasin                      GRNP
OBSERVED PRECIPITATION                                         OBSERVED TEMPERATURE
BUCP - Buck Ck. Camp Met. Site #470118121330800                BUCT - Buck Creek Camp Met. Site
ELEP - Puyallup R. at Electron, Sta. #1209200                  ELET - Puyallup R. at Electron
SOPR - South Prairie Creek, Sta. #12095000                     SPRT - So. Prairie Creek at So. Prairie
CARB - Carbon R. nr. Fairfax, Sta. #12094000                   CAYU - Cayuse Pass Snow Pillows
WHTP - White River Canal, Sta. # 12099000
GNWP - Greenwater River at Greenwater, Sta. # 12097500

SIMULATED DISCHARGE                                            OBSERVED DISCHARGE
UPPUY (basin outflow)                                          ORTOBS - Puyallup R. nr. Orting, Sta. #12093500
CARBON (basin outflow)                                         CRFOBS - Carbon R. nr. Fairfax, Sta #12094000
SOPRE (basin outflow)                                          SOPOBS - South Prairie at South Prairie, Sta.#12095000
GRNWTR (basin outflow)                                         GRNOBS - Greenwater R. at Greenwater,Sta#12097500
SUM1Q (summation point)                                        WBCOBS - White R. blw. Clearwater, Sta. #12097850
MMDQ(reservoir outflow)                                        WNBOBS - White nr. Buckley (not available for realtime)
CANAL (CANALB outflow)                                         WCBOBS - White R. Canal at Buckley,Sta.#12099000
SUM2Q (summation point                                         WBQOBS - White R. at Buckley #12100000
TAPPSQ(reservoir outflow)                                      LTDOBS - Lake Tapps Diversion, Sta. #12101100
PUYSIM (REACH5 outflow)                                        PUYOBS - Puyallup R. at Puyallup, Sta. #12101500
PUYDIF (PUYBAL--difference between PUYOBS and REACH5)          MCQOBS - addition of flows (#12099000 + #12100000)
                                                               WCQOBS - subtraction of flows(#12097850 - #12097500)

SIMULATED STAGE                                 OBSERVED STAGE
ORSSIM (ORSSTG rating)                          ORSOBS - Puyallup R. nr. Orting, Sta. # 12093500
CRSSIM (CRSSTG rating)                          CRSOBS - Carbon River at Orting, Sta. #12095690
PASSIM (PASSTG rating)                          PASOBS - Puyallup at Alderton, Sta. #12096500
MMDE                                            MMDOBS - Forebay elevation, Mud Mtn. Lake, Sta. #1209800
WASSIM (WASSTG rating)                          WASOBS - White River near Auburn , Sta. #12100496
TAPPSE                                          TAPOBS - Lake Tapps nr. Sumner, Sta. #12101000
PUSSIM (PUSSTG rating)                          PUSOBS - Puyalllup R. at Puyallup, Sta. #12101500


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Water-Balance Plot




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Precipitation Plot
One of two precipitation information plots from SSARRMENU for the Puyallup River
Basin, Washington




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SMI PLOT
Example soil moisture index (SMI) plot from SSARRMENU for the Puyallup River Basin,
Washington




                                                        Soil Moisture Index is an
                                                        index to the simulated
                                                        moisture computed for each
                                                        subbasin, measured in inches




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SWE PLOT
Example snow water equivalent (SWE) plot from SSARRMENU for the Puyallup River
Basin, Washington




                                                     Snow water equivalent is the
                                                     simulated depth of water
                                                     content contained in the snow
                                                     pack, in inches




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  Threshold Values for Alert Status

STATION             ALERT                  REMARKS
CAYUSE PASS         NONE
WHITE-AUBURN        STAGE > 80.0            (PEAK MEAN DAILY STAGE = 79.77 (WY '95)
LK.TAPPS DIV.       NONE
PUYALLUP-ALDERTON   STAGE > 53.0            (PEAK MEAN DAILY STAGE = 52.56 WY'95)
PUYALLUP-PUYALLUP   DISCHARGE > 17,000      (PEAK MEAN DAILY Q = 15,400 WY'95)
PUYALLUP-ORTING     DISCHARGE > 4,000       (PEAK MEAN DAILY Q = 3,480 WY'95)
CARBON-ORTING       STAGE > 27.0            (PEAK MEAN DAILY STAGE = 26.56 WY'95)
CARBON-FAIRFAX      DISCHARGE > 3,500       (PEAK MEAN DAILY Q = 3,390 WY'95)
MUD MTN INFLOW      DISCHARGE > 7,090       (PEAK MEAN DAILY Q = 7,090 WY'95)
MUD MTN LAKE        STAGE > 1092.00         (PEAK STAGE = 1092.35 WY'95)
WILLIAMS BRIDGE     STAGE > 47.80           (2.0 FEET BELOW TOP OF LEFT BANK)
SOUTH PRAIRIE       DISCHARGE > 2,500       (PEAK MEAN DAILY Q = 1,970 WY'95)
WHITE-BUCKLEY       STAGE > 7.10            (1.0 FEET BELOW TOP OF LEFT BANK)
GRNWTR-GRNWTR       DISCHARGE > 1,300       (PEAK MEAN DAILY Q = 1,160 WY'95)
BUCK CREEK          PREC24 >3.0,PREC6HR >1.4 (2-yr,24hr = 3.0in;2-yr,6hr=1.4in)
WHITE-CANAL         NONE




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Flood Alert Map
Note the large red dots. These represent stations that are on alert,   View the threshold list
and in this example, three stations have exceeded pre-defined
threshold values since the last data retrieval.




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