Seven Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist e Clinton administration is but one
Explores War in the 21st Century example of a producer of supposedly stra-
by Andrew F. Krepinevich (Bantam Dell) tegic documents that completely omitted
strategy from those documents. Re-
Reviewed by Col Will Holahan, USMCR (Ret.) reading excerpts from these documents
shows them to have been hollow, high-
ecently, GEN David Petraeus, USA, was asked by a sounding pu pieces masquerading as strategy.
visiting journalist what he was reading. e general, e author doesn’t spare the Bush administration from stra-
a notable combatant commander with renowned tegic ga s either, such as the former president having declared,
intellectual throw-weight, responded that he was currently “As the Iraqis stand-up, we will stand down.” e author
reading a book by military futurist Andrew Krepinevich. is maintains this “con ates resources, the means to be employed
response caught my eye, and the book moved up to the top of within a strategy, with strategy itself.” Substituting indigenous
my reading list, and other ROA members should do likewise. troops for U.S. troops describes the means to be employed to
e author is well connected with Andrew Marshall, a liv- achieve U.S. objectives, not how these means will be employed.
ing legend in the Pentagon’s scenario development and strate- A sound recommendation at the end of the book points
gic analysis area. e author quotes Mr. Marshal: “I’d rather to returning Joint Forces Command to its intended mission
have decent analysis in response to the right set of questions to indentify emerging threats and to support the transforma-
than brilliant analysis focusing on the wrong set of questions.” tion needed to address those threats. Mr. Krepinevich also
at the United States has become severely atrophied in takes exception to Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ publicly
its grasp as to what actually constitutes strategy, confusing it stated position that the challenges of the future will look
o en with the objectives of stated strategies, is a point well very much like they do today. e seven scenarios in this
made in this book. Even when an administration enunciates book will quickly disabuse you of that mind-set.
a strategy, it is o en quite clear that the means to attain that
strategy have been completely ignored. Col Holahan is ROA’s director of Mem