Af-Pak Terror by nauman55

VIEWS: 189 PAGES: 21

More Info
									Af-Pak Terror/Insurgency: A Synthesis

            Author name

          Professor name

              Institute

         Date of submission
                                               Af-Pak Terror/Insurgency: A Synthesis    1


Summary

Afghanistan lies at the cross roads of Central Asia and South Asia. Due to its strategic

location, it has remained an area of interest for invaders from Greeks until British

colonials. After the Soviet withdrawal, power struggle erupted and in 1996, Taliban took

control on Kabul. Bin Laden, the chieftain of Al-Qaeda joined hands with the radical

Islamist and used the harsh terrain as its terror training camps. The symbolic attacks of

9/11 led to a United States led international Invasion in 2001. The military might of

international alliance brought down the Taliban regime. The Taliban went into

background but started to gain grounds in preceding years. Insurgency rise

progressively until 2007. In 2008, the insurgency started to gain considerable

momentum with rise in casualties on both sides. The presence of foreign force and a

poorly performing regime provide legitimacy and support to insurgents. The international

forces had carried out major offensives in high activity areas. However, due to multitude

factors could not achieve favorable results. The fight for Afghanistan is going to stay on

for times to come. The United States pullout is inevitable at some stage. The exit

strategy would define the future course of global and regional politics.


The case of Pakistan is a somewhat different from its neighbor. International community

in general and United States, Saudi Arabia in particular supported the fundamental

religious elements in Pakistan to provide logistic support inside Afghanistan during

resistance. With the fall of Stalin’s Soviet Union, United States pulled out of all its

support. Once tamed fundamental religious elements were now grown to formidable

force and started gaining grounds. The initial onset was rise of sectarian violence in

Pakistan and covert support for armed struggle in Indian occupied Kashmir. Post 9/11
                                               Af-Pak Terror/Insurgency: A Synthesis     2


events re-defined the paradigm of international politics and forced Pakistan to change

its policy on core issues of sponsoring fundamentalist items. The Islamist joined hand

with in them and started to engage the state. The takeover of Swat valley by militants in

2008 and implementation of theocratic Islam directly challenged the writ of the state.

Similar sort of insurgency blossomed in remote tribal belt adjacent to Afghan border.

Terror was use extensively as a tactic to pressurize the state. As an initial response, the

government was probably bewildered. However, lately in 2008, the state decided to take

on the fundamental elements. The Military operations in Swat and South Waziristan

have achieved significant success. These successes can be futile if not capitalized and

consolidated.
                                                    Af-Pak Terror/Insurgency: A Synthesis         3




                    AF-PAK TERROR/INSURGENCY: A SYNTHESIS

Introduction

The case of Afghanistan is eclipse with power struggle after the fall of Russian Red

Bear. Since invasion of United States, chaos grew further and an insurgency led by

ousted Taliban started to gain momentum. The surge in insurgency gained considerable

momentum post-2008 as per Thomas Rutting1. NATO and United States launched

major offensives in preceding years in Taliban strongholds to cut down their influence.

However, the insurgency is gaining momentum. The Afghan turmoil could be analyzed

in context of classic guerilla warfare with a blend of emerging terror tactics. Pakistan’s

case is different from its neighboring Afghanistan. Since its covert support in Afghan-

Russo War, Pakistan had been facing law and order situation in decade of 1980 and 90.

The political turmoil2 in these decades further aided the rise of religious and fanatical

group. The case of terrorism of Afghanistan and Pakistan has some common links but

differ from each other.


                     Afghanistan- Medieval Country of 21st Century


The Al-Qaeda Connection


Al-Qaeda came into lime light in 1998 with its alleged connection with bombing of

United States Embassy3. 1989, brought Bin Laden into picture as heir of Al-Qaeda. Bin

Laden gave an impetus to organization and new strategy. The key focus from re-
1
  Thomas Rutting, The Other Side: Dimension of Afghan Insurgency, (New York: Afghan Analyst Network,
2009) p 1.
2
  Dr Eamon Murhpy & Dr Ahmed Rashid Malik, Pakistan Jihad, Islamabad Policy Research Institute
Journal IX, no 2, (2009), p 17-31.
3
 Gerrad Chaliand, and Arnaud Blin (Ed), The History of Terrorism: From Antiquity to Al-Qaeda, ( Los
Angeles: University of California Press, 2007) p 314-348.
                                                       Af-Pak Terror/Insurgency: A Synthesis            4


conquistador of Islamic world changed to fight against corrupt Muslim leaders. In 1996

to avoid the increasing risk of apprehension in Sudan, he shifted to Afghanistan. With

the fall of Kabul, he developed ties with the power gaining Taliban’s. In 1998, Bin Laden

was chosen as Amir of Al-Qaeda by Mujlis-E-Shura. In the same year, United States

was declare as enemy of Muslims and called all Muslims to kill Americans and plunder

their money. Finally, on September 11, 2001 the fall of World Trade Centre by

Kamikaze Al-Qaeda operatives gave a huge symbolic blow to its Enemy. The shift in

strategy pitched Al-Qaeda as a common enemy of International Community. The United

State invaded Afghanistan in wake of 9/11 attacks.


Taliban Resurgence (2001-2007)


Since the ousting of Taliban regime in 2001-02, the group started its re-organization and

opted for classical guerilla tactics with a blend of terror. The insurgency started in 20024

and grew to full blown insurgency in 2006. The increase in violence reached its peak in

2005-06. The number of suicide attacks rose from 27 to 139. While remotely detonated

bomb attacks doubled, 783 to 1677 and armed attacks nearly tripled from 1558 to 4542.

These attacks further rose to a 27 percent increase in 2007. The average per month

incident had increased from 50 in 2002 to 566 in 20075. The terror attacks rose from

491 in 2005 to 1127 in 20076. The number of deaths, injuries and abductions increased

from 1540 in 2005 to 4673 in 20077.


Post 2008 Afghanistan


4
  Seth G Jones, ‘The Rise of Afghanistan Insurgency’, International Security Vol 32/4, (2008) p 7-40.
5
  Adapted from USCENTCOM brief & UNA/62/722- S/2008/159, 6 March 2008.
6
  Adapted from US State Department, Country Reports on Terrorism. April 30,2008 .
7
  Adapted from US State Department, Country Reports on Terrorism. April 30,2008.
                                                    Af-Pak Terror/Insurgency: A Synthesis         5


The insurgent attacks rose from 424 in 1st quarter of 2007 to 704 in same quarter of

20088. The number of suicide bombings was 160 in 2007 and 100 in first six months of

20089. While in 2009, the roadside attacks rose from 4170 in 2008 to 700010. The

United States Military causality count doubled to 310 from previous years. Insurgent

area of influence and operation rose to almost 92 % in 2008-09. Although NATO, United

States and local Afghan forces had launched many offensive to cut down the insurgent

influence, without any substantial gain. The increasing military presence of United

States and NATO had yet to achieve an impact on insurgent activities.


Tactics of Afghan Insurgency


After the fall of Taliban regime in Kabul, the ousted regime had a major shift in tactics.

The tactics are derivation from the classical Hit and Run with blend of terror activities.

The small-scale military ambushes and skirmishes are a regular part of these tactics

while suicide bombings, roadside bombs, abductions and killing are associated

psychological methods. The rugged familiar terrain of Afghanistan is a major advantage

to insurgent groups. The clandestine approach and mixing up with local population adds

further to the difficulty of counter insurgent operations. Even with significant military

presence and technological edge of adversaries, the insurgents are gaining grounds.

The legitimacy to movement is provided by the liberation slogans and Islamic concept of

Jihad. Governance failure of Karzai government had added positively to the rise of




8
  Adapted from Afghanistan NGO Safety Office, and Jonathan S. Landay, ‘US Seeking Troops to Send to
Afghanistan’, Miami Herald, April 16, 2008
9
  Alan Cullison, ’Suicide Bombers Afghan War’, Wall Street Journal, August 1, 2008, p 1.
10
   Kenneth Katzman, Afghanistan: Post Taliban Governance, Security and U.S Policy, Congressional
Research Service, Washington, 2010, p 23.
                                                        Af-Pak Terror/Insurgency: A Synthesis              6


insurgent activities. The presence of powerful local warlords and poor control of central

government also adds as a positive factor.


Searching the roots for Afghan insurgency


The search for roots of Afghan insurgency dates back to almost quarter of century. The

Russian invasion and its withdrawal left the country in power struggle among the rival

factions. The rise of Taliban kept a lid on these embroiling issues for a short duration

until their overthrow by United States. The formation of Karzai government and rise of

northern alliance to power manifested an ethnic discrimination for the Pashtun tribes.

Poor governance, soviet war veterans, gun culture, tribal society and religion were the

ripe constituents to enflame an insurgency.


Before proceeding further, it felt imperative to understand the point of view of Afghan

insurgents. As core of present Afghan insurgency is led by Taliban, so it is deem

appropriate to understand their point. Since withdrawal of Soviet troops from

Afghanistan, fierce power struggle broke out among the Afghan Warlords. The fighting

within them completely eradicated the concepts of governance and peace in country.

The Taliban’s were student of religious madarssah’s. They had a general disliking for

the ongoing power feud. They gained the shape of a popular struggle with increasing

influence in Pashtun tribes11. They rose to power in 1996 with fall of Kabul, their regime

lasted only for 5 years but brought security and peace to many parts of country. Being a

radical Islamic movement they were inspired by rigid Salafist ideology. According to the

subject ideology the use of modern concepts and equipments were considered as a


11
     Tim Foxley, ‘The Taliban Propaganda Activities’, SIPRI Project Paper, June, SIPRI, London, 2007 p4.
                                                        Af-Pak Terror/Insurgency: A Synthesis         7


taboo. During their whole effort of power and regime, they were supported by Pakistan

and may be under cover by United States. As fallout of 9/11, they were deprived of

international and regional backing. As per the statements of Taliban leader, Mullah

Omer their primary demand is exit of foreign troops from Afghanistan12. The apparent

goals of Taliban leadership are exit of foreign troops and re-instatement of Taliban

regime in Kabul. The use of terror tactic of suicide bombing has always remained a

matter of debate among Taliban leaders.


Taking into account the statements issued by Taliban it seems that their goal is mainly

local confined to perimeter of Afghanistan. According to un-confirmed sources, Taliban

leadership has division with in among the use of terror tactics. If this context is true then

the nature of Afghan insurgency is mostly local and may not have global aims.

However, what is the role of Al-Qaeda and Bin Laden and their influence on Taliban?

According to United States security advisor James Jones13, the Maximum estimates of

Al-Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan are 100 with no bases. Such depletion of Al-Qaeda

human resource must had a devastating blow to their objectives in region. Al-Qaeda

may not have an active participation in Afghan Insurgency but its aims and objective for

a global radical Islam is source of concern for the International community. Bin Laden

was major financial mentor of Taliban regime in Afghanistan but now the situation is

other way around. The major chunk of insurgency funding is acquire from narcotics and

other means like abductions, extortion etc.




12
   I.Khan , ‘Omar threatens to intensify war: Talks with Karzai govt ruled out’, Dawn, 4 Jan. 2007,
p 1.
13
   ‘State of the Union’, Cable News Network, Washington, broadcast October 4, 2009.
                                              Af-Pak Terror/Insurgency: A Synthesis    8


Although the objective and nature of Afghan insurgency is mainly local against the

foreign occupation but the Al-Qaeda connection can prove fatal for the rest of the world.

Afghanistan’s safe sanctuaries can aid in the flourishing of Radical Islamist movement.

Under the precarious conditions the insurgency had to be handled very wisely

otherwise, it could have dire consequence for the whole planet.


                      Pakistan: A Victim or Sponsor of Terrorism


Before proceeding further, it is deem appropriate to glance at issues faced by Pakistan

with regard to Jihadi terrorism.


The Story of violence in Pakistan


The Jihadi terrorism in Pakistan has its connection with the Soviet invasion of

Afghanistan in 1979. The whole programme of Afghan resistance was funded by United

States and Saudi Arabia with sympathies of General Zia’s regime. Government funded

religious schools to produce volunteers for Afghan war. The war was given a term of

Jihad (Islamic Terminology for armed struggle against oppressor). The withdrawal of

Soviet forces from Afghanistan raised the question of legitimacy of Jihadi organizations.

However, their efforts were channeled to Kashmir under covert support from

government. The decade of 1990 is overshadowing with the violent sectarian struggle

among factions in different parts of Northern Province and Southern Punjab.


The Afghan Connection and Taliban


The religious concept of Jihad was exploited on political terms to gain recruitment and

support for Afghan resistance. United States, CIA and Saudi Arabia opened the
                                                        Af-Pak Terror/Insurgency: A Synthesis   9


floodgates of monetary and military assistance to Jihadi elements in decade of 1980.

After the fall of Russian Red bear, the Jihadi elements left unchecked by International

community as well as by the Pakistani government. These elements kept on gaining

grounds with the passage of time. After the fall of Taliban regime and United States

invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistani government was force to take a U-turn on its backing

of Taliban regime. The government cracked down many Jihadi elements and banned a

large number of active organizations. However, these elements were now evolving to

very complex web with social, economic and political effects on society. These factions

have strongholds in different areas of country like Federally Administered Tribal Area

(FATA), and Southern Punjab.


The tale of Blood in Pakistan (2002-2009)


9/11 attacks changed the face of world politics and forced many nations like Pakistan to

change it pro-Taliban stance. Pakistan has to pay a hefty price for changing lanes.

Since it alliance with United States War on Terror, the terror waves started to erupt from

2002 onward. In only 2003, the civilian casualties14 amounted to 140 and security forces

lost 24 members while the reported terrorist lost was 24. The number grew

exponentially in preceding years, the civilian death toll reached 1523 in 2007 and 2155

in 2008. Year 2009 marked the bloodiest year with civilian toll of 2307 and 1011 security

forces losses. The terrorist losses also reached 8267 from 3906 in 2008.


The Swat Situation and awakening in 2009




14
     South Asia Terror Portal Database, www.satp.com.
                                              Af-Pak Terror/Insurgency: A Synthesis     10


Swat was one of the peaceful districts of North West Frontier Province of Pakistan

before 2009. The people of Swat had a long request of implementation of Sharia Law in

district. The demand rose first in decade of 1990 but it gained momentum in late 2008.

In early 2009, government brokered a deal with cleric Sufi Mohammad for

implementation of the requested Nizam-E-Adl. Just after two month of peace deal, the

cleric denounced the deal with accusation on government insincerity for implementation

of Nizam-E-Adl. The cleric joined hands with so-called Tehreek Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

and took over Swat in February 2009. The militants extended their influence to

neighboring Bunir and Shangla districts. Once acquiring complete control, they imposed

their own theocratic version of Islam. People who did not support their rule were

executed publicly to make them an example for potential resistance. Public lashings

introduced. Female schools burned to ashes. Barbershops and CD shops were blown.

The atrocities reached a massive scale with inclusion of suicide bombing all over

country. It was first time that writ of state was openly challenged in settled areas. To

weed out these fanatic elements, which were just 100 miles away from Islamabad,

government launched a full-scale military offensive in May,2009 code named Operation

Rah-e-Rast (Path to right). The military swiftly dismantled the militant stronghold in just

60 days. Before the operation, civilian population was move to avoid collateral damage.

Military washed out the majority of militants during the operation. However, for complete

eradication of fundamental elements military presence has been kept in the district until

now to weed out the small pockets of resistance.


Path to Salvation-Destination Waziristan
                                                        Af-Pak Terror/Insurgency: A Synthesis             11


Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) emerged on map in 1893 after the

demarcation of Durand line by British colonials. The colonials loosely controlled the

tribal area. Instead of implementing the administration model of rest of country, this area

was divided into different agencies (administrative zones). A political agent who had

paramilitary support from Frontier Constabulary headed each agency. The government

writ was loosely existed in these areas since colonial age. The same model was

continued post-independence. Different tribes and clans are settle in different areas and

indirectly control these areas. Due to its location, the area became pivotal in Afghan

resistance against the Soviet Union. It was establish as base camp for operations inside

Afghanistan. The foreign volunteers like Arabs, Uzbeks and other resided in this part

during lenient period of fight. Most of them settled here permanently and contracted

marriages with local woman. In post 9/11 scenario, the area came into limelight due to

porosity of Afghan border and cross border incursions. The Afghan fighters had

sympathizers in this area and had socio-economic links. After the outbreak of another

war in Afghanistan, these sympathizers, which existed in small groups, formed a

formidable alliance known as Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan15 (TTP) in December 2007.

Baitullan Mehsud, a wanted militant from South Waziristan was the first chieftain of

organization. The main aim of TTP was to enforce Sharia and Unite against NATO

forces in Afghanistan. They killed around 200 tribesmen on charges of spying to

American and Pakistani Government. They also established their theocratic version of

Islam in their areas of influence. Their version was same as that of their counterparts in

Swat. It is an estimate that Mehsud had 5000 fighters under his command. He was also

alleged in the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, leader of the Pakistan People’s Party.
15
     Hassan Abbas, ‘A profile of Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan’, CTC sentinel, Vol 1, Issue 2, (2008), p1.
                                              Af-Pak Terror/Insurgency: A Synthesis      12


He denied these allegations. He has said to be the mastermind of terror wave that

erupted in 2008-09. The terror wave included tactics like suicide bombing all over the

country, commando style action in Army Headquarters and other security forces

installations, attacks on Marriot hotel and many more. He was killed in United States

drone attack.


After the successful culmination of Swat operation, Pakistani Military chose South

Waziristan, the stronghold of Mehsud’s men as their next target. The operation code

named Rah-e-Nijat (Path to salvation) began on 19 June 2009. A major ground

offensive subsequently started in October 2009. The army blockaded all roads to South

Waziristan before the start of operation and launched offensive from three sides. The

army with support from air force is advancing in the region. Fighting in some agencies is

still going on but the military offensive has broken the back of militants. The operation is

still going on and militants have resorted to guerilla tactics of hit and run. Ambushes on

army convoys, abductions of security forces personnel, roadside bombs and suicide

attacks are tactics employed by the miscreants. In order to increase public pressure on

government, militants have targeted the major cities of Pakistan with waves of suicide

bombings. However, these tactics proved futile in venting the military pressure.


                                        Synopsis


Afghanistan had been termed as graveyard of empires by many scholars due to its

harsh terrain and rugged peoples. The roots of recent problem existed from the

withdrawal of Soviets when international community particularly United States and

Pakistan left alone the once cheered Mujahedeen’s.
                                             Af-Pak Terror/Insurgency: A Synthesis     13


Rebuilding Afghanistan


Terrorism has evolved as a tool for the insurgent elements as little investment pays off a

high gain. While studying the Afghan and Pakistan insurgency in light of classical

insurgency theories, it is clear that Afghan insurgents have a clear agenda of getting rid

of foreign occupation. The insurgents went underground after United States invasion

and reconciled their strength. While progressively, they escalated the activities and

shifted to limited scale guerilla tactics. The next phase would probably be the transition

to full-scale war. Nevertheless, as it has been proven by Soviet example that prolonged

guerilla warfare can result in loss of political will to carry on the war. We have to wait

and see for this aspect. Moreover, the present political government of Hamid Karzai is

not the true representative of Afghanistan. The Pashtun’s feel deprived and isolated

from the government. This ethnic disparity gives insurgents a base and populace

support to operate. The corruption and poor governance of present government also

gave Afghan people an ill impression. The claim of Taliban insurgents on basis of their

five-year relatively peaceful regime also gets legitimacy. Moreover, insurgents are also

capitalizing the religious grounds of infidel occupation. The West in general and United

States in particular have been posed as infidels ruling the faithful. The collateral

damage from NATO strikes is adding further fuel to the insurgency. Therefore, the

solution of Afghan insurgency might exist in an Afghan government including all

stakeholders and stage wise exit of foreign forces. However, if Afghanistan is left alone

like before the problem may evoke again and could pose a major global threat. The

nexus of Afghan Taliban and Al-Qaeda needs to be delinked to avoid future

perpetrations against global community.
                                                Af-Pak Terror/Insurgency: A Synthesis     14


Pakistan- a case of misunderstood Identity


In case of Pakistan, the slogan is implementation of Islamic laws and governance style.

It is pertinent to note that Pakistan gained independence on the name of Islam. While

defining the Islamic rule, both extremists and moderates differ from each other. The

fundamentalist version of Islam is more theocratic and Salafist in nature with banning all

signs of modern society. The insurgents although does not have much power to take on

Pakistan Military on direct confrontation. Due to this, they have resorted to terror tactics.

The populace/recruitment support comes from the deprived classes of society. It is

pertinent to note that religious students of Madarssah’s are soft targets. These students

mostly belonged to poor families and have very less exposure to modern schooling

systems. The insurgents then exploit their weaknesses both financially and mentally.

Brain washing turn these young adults into lethal weapons and in search of martyrdom

they act like puppets on the hand of their mentors. To cut down the work force

recruitment government need to act swiftly, banning such madarssah’s is not the

solution. Government must provide an alternative like either nationalizes all these

religious institutions or provide an alternative.


The radical Islamist also enjoys a considerable political support from religious parties.

With the awakening led by electronic media, these religious parties are parting their

ways from fundamental elements. However, anti-American sentiments are still use as

propaganda base. The parting of ways is clear by the recent suicide bomb blast in

Peshawar. The bomber targeted a rally of Jamat-E-Islami, which was an outright

supporter of the fundamental groups. Moreover, the recent assassination of Khalid
                                              Af-Pak Terror/Insurgency: A Synthesis      15


Khawaja and abduction of Colonel Imam (Former Pro-Taliban intelligence official) may

also indicate the parting of ways with previous friends.


United States has never been viewed as a trusted ally in Pakistan. The roots of distrust

dates back to 1971 Indo-Pak war when the promised seventh fleet never reached its

destination resulting into fall of Dhaka. The resentment grew further during post-Afghan

war era when United States dumped once most favored ally in decade of 1990s. Recent

drone attacks and violations of air space are adding further to these resentments. These

all historic events are used a ploy by Islamist to attract populace support. Pakistani’s

have never endorsed the participation on United States led War on Terror. Until now,

the populace was in dilemma on issue of War on Terror. However, the rise of terror

tactics in preceding years and efforts by media has brought changes in public opinion.

Now most of population is in support of in-land military operation to cut down the

fundamentalists.


Af-Pak: Battle ground of New Great Game


Taliban are alleged to be nurtured by Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and American

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Keeping in view the strategic military interests of

Pakistan, it can be presumed that with presence of hostile India on eastern side, an

unsafe western border would complicate the problems for Pakistan. A pro-Pakistan

government in Afghanistan would ensure a safe western border. Therefore, the intent or

motive for Taliban existed. The evolution of Taliban can also be credited to ISI and CIA

with strategic interests. In present scenario, it is very interested to note that unlike TTP

Mullah Omer never gave an order to engage or kill Pakistan Army. The drone attacks
                                              Af-Pak Terror/Insurgency: A Synthesis      16


are also targeting a narrow area of focus with limited success. The porosity of border

regions has never brought to control by either side. It is big question that why neither

United States/NATO nor Pakistan had made some credible efforts to seal the border to

cut down the cross border insurgency. During recent operations by Pakistan Army in

Swat, South Waziristan and Baluchistan, the recovered ammunition is either American

made or Indian made. So is India also a player in this chaos? Another question of prime

importance is the whereabouts of Taliban leadership and Bin Laden. All these mind

boggling questions makes the matter more complicated. With these entire questions,

one thing appears in mind that there is something big behind the curtains. However,

what it could be?


It has to be bear in mind that Afghanistan and Pakistan both are at geo political strategic

location. Regional presence would ensure access to untapped energy reservoirs of

Caspian, Central Asia and Baluchistan. It would also aid in for keeping a check on

emerging China, India, Russia and rogue Iran. The religious militant elements can be

use as an undercover weapon to destabilize Russia, Iran and China. Russia is facing

insurgencies from Chechnya and Daghistan. As all these radical Islamists belong to

Sunni sect of Islam, they can be use as a potent weapon to de-stabilize Shiite Iran.

China is also facing threat of Islamic militancy within its borders, these elements can be

used as base camps for all covert operations inside China. United States could be

interested in these objectives to keep its dominance in the region. India has also

interests in the region. Recent Indo-US nexus had presumably given India a license for

regional domination. Keeping in view the historic facts of Indo-Sino rivalry, pitching India

against the rising China might slow down the global emergence of Chinese power. India
                                               Af-Pak Terror/Insurgency: A Synthesis   17


has also supported the Northern Alliance during Afghan civil war. Moreover, India is

also a sponsor of rebuilding Afghanistan. Presently a huge number of Indian consulates

are operating inside Afghanistan. India has an archrival in the shape of Pakistan. Both

countries have been involved in full-scale wars after independence and have accused

each other’s covert involvement in insurgencies. Pakistan was a major supporter of

Kashmir freedom fight and had allegedly helped the Sikh insurgency in 1980s. In return,

India has allegedly masterminded many terrorist acts in Pakistan and is accused of

supporting the Baluch and FATA insurgency. A pro-Indian government in Afghanistan

would not be accepted to Pakistan. Similarly, a stabilized Pakistan would never allow

India to acquire regional super power status and focus on China. These all factors

constitute a complex web of interests in the region. Probably it can be termed as the

New Great Game. Keeping in view this perspective, an end of this regional chaos

seems remote. However, as history is evident United States has to finally pullout from

Afghanistan. The exit must have some sort of face saving for the lone super power.

Post United States Afghanistan would shape the future regional political dynamics and

would have significant effect on world politics.


                                       Conclusion


The case of Afghanistan and Pakistan differ from each other. The nature, causes and

tactics of insurgency are different from each other. Afghan insurgents are in pursuit to

throw away the foreign forces and an incapable regime. The struggle in Pakistan is

towards implementation of theocratic way of life. Afghan insurgents enjoy populace

support while their Pakistani counterparts are losing it fast. In Afghanistan, NATO and

United States have limited success. Pakistani military has made substantial gains in
                                              Af-Pak Terror/Insurgency: A Synthesis   18


troubled areas. For international community it is time to rethink their strategy in

Afghanistan and get back to drawing board. Pakistan needs to consolidate on military

gain. The future of regional peace and global peace hangs delicately on these

decisions. Only time will tell that who passes the test. However, it is obvious that this

war on terror is going to be there for times to come.
                                               Af-Pak Terror/Insurgency: A Synthesis   19


                                      Works Cited


 Rutting, Thomas, The Other Side: Dimension of Afghan Insurgency, (New York:

Afghan Analyst Network, 2009).


 Dr Eamon Murhpy & Dr Ahmed Rashid Malik, Pakistan Jihad, Islamabad Policy

Research Institute Journal IX, no 2, (2009).


 Library of Congress-Federal Research Division, Country Profile: Afghanistan,

(Washington: Library of Congress, 2008).


 Gerrad Chaliand, and Arnaud Blin (ed), The History of Terrorism: From Antiquity to Al-

Qaeda, ( Los Angeles: University of California Press, 2007) 314-348.


 Jones, Seth G ‘ The Rise of Afghanistan Insurgency’, International Security Vol 32/4,

(2008).


 USCENTCOM brief & UNA/62/722- S/2008/159, 6 March 2008.

 US State Department, Country Reports on Terrorism. April 30,2008 .

 US State Department, Country Reports on Terrorism. April 30,2008.

 Afghanistan NGO Safety Office, and Landay, Jonathan S. ‘US Seeking Troops to

Send to Afghanistan’, Miami Herald, April 16, 2008.

 Cullison, Alan ’Suicide Bombers Afghan War’, Wall Street Journal, August 1, 2008.

 Katzman, Kenneth Afghanistan: Post Taliban Governance, Security and U.S Policy,

Congressional Research Service, Washington, 2010.


 Foxley, Tim ‘The Taliban Propaganda Activities’, SIPRI Project Paper , June, SIPRI,

London, 2007.
                                             Af-Pak Terror/Insurgency: A Synthesis        20


 Khan , I, ‘Omar threatens to intensify war: Talks with Karzai govt ruled out’, Dawn, 4

Jan. 2007.

 ‘State of the Union’, Cable News Network, Washington, broadcast October 4, 2009.

 South Asia Terror Portal Database, www.satp.com

 Abbas, Hassan ‘A profile of Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan’, CTC sentinel, Vol 1, Issue

2,(2008).

								
To top