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					FUTURES PRICE FORECAST MODEL: estimates for the season-average price and
counter-cyclical payment rate for corn

This Contents sheet provides an explanation of each worksheet in the file.

Users are encouraged to read Forecasting the Counter-Cyclical Payment Rate for U.S. Corn: An Application of
the Futures Price Forecasting Model, which provides background information on the model for corn, its data
requirements, the forecast procedure, and forecast results for crop years 2003/04 and 2004/05. The models for
soybeans and wheat are similar. Slight differences in those models are explained in the Excel file for that
commodity. The report only covers corn and is available at:
                           http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/FDS/JAN05/fds05a01/

  2004/05 forecast
   ● This worksheet provides:
     ─ A weekly forecast of the season-average farm price received and implied counter-cyclical payment rate.
     Users may change the weekly forecast by going to the Change forecast worksheet.
       ─ A chart of weekly forecasts for the entire marketing year.
       ─ An explanation of the detailed computational steps for the weekly forecasts for the marketing year.
  NOTE: The futures forecast is not an official USDA forecast.*


  2003/04 forecast
   ● This worksheet provides:
     ─ A weekly forecast of the season-average farm price received and implied counter-cyclical payment rate.
     Users may change the weekly forecast by going to the Change forecast worksheet.
       ─ A chart of weekly forecasts for the entire marketing year.
       ─ An explanation of the detailed computational steps for the weekly forecasts for the marketing year.
  NOTE: The futures forecast is not an official USDA forecast.*


  Change forecast
  ● On this worksheet, users can change the model's forecasts by inserting their own numbers for futures prices,
  monthly basis values, and/or monthly marketing weights.
  NOTE: The futures forecast is not an official USDA forecast.*


  Definitions
  ● This worksheet defines key terms associated with the futures forecast model.

  Documentation
  ● This worksheet provides a brief description of the forecast model, data sources, and forecast procedures.

  Data
  ● This worksheet provides current and historical data needed to produce the marketing year forecasts:
     ─ Weekly and monthly futures prices of the nearby contract by marketing year.
     ─ Monthly and annual farm prices received by marketing year.
     ─ Monthly basis values by marketing year.
     ─ Monthly marketing weights by marketing year.
     ─ Monthly season-average price received projection from World Agricultural Supply and Demand
     Estimates (WASDE)
     ─ Policy parameters (target prices, national average loan rates, and direct payment rates).


*Official USDA forecasts are available from:
  ─ The most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) for season average farm price received.
          http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/waobr/wasde-bb/
  ─ Press releases issued by USDA's Farm Service Agency for official counter-cyclical payment rates.
          http://www.fsa.usda.gov/pas/news/releases/index.htm
2003/04 forecast
This worksheet provides:
   Weekly forecast of the season-average farm price received and implied counter-cyclical payment (CCP) rate
     The user may change the weekly forecast by going to the change forecast worksheet.
   Explanation of forecast (table 1)
   Chart of weekly futures model forecasts for the entire marketing year (figure 1)
   Explanation of detailed computational steps for the weekly forecasts for the marketing year (tables 2 through 7)
 NOTE: The futures forecast is not an official USDA forecast.




Weekly forecast of the season-average farm price received and implied counter-cyclical payment (CCP) rate:


                         Date of weekly forecast                26-Aug-04


                               Season-average farm price received                            CCP rate
                                                               Dollars per bushel
                           Futures model forecast                    2.40                          -0.08


                Midpoint of WASDE projection                         2.40                          -0.08



Explanation of forecast (table 1):
● Step # 1 enters the most recent Thursday's closing price from each trading contract into table 1, column B. These
provide a futures price for each month as found in column C.

● Step # 2 calculates a monthly price forecast found in column E by adding a moving 5-year average basis found in
D to the monthly futures price found in column C. Column F reflects, when available, actual monthly farm prices re
by U.S. producers.

● Step # 3 inserts an actual monthly price received by farmers into column F, if available. Initially, this is a mid-mo
price but a month later becomes the full month price received.

● Step # 4 computes each month’s price weight, as found in column I, and is a product of columns G and H. Colum
reflects a composite forecast derived from farm prices received or futures prices. Column H reflects each month’s 5-
moving-average monthly marketing weight.

● Step # 5 computes the season-average price received forecast, a summation of monthly price weights found in col
● Step # 6 calculates the counter-cyclical payment rate (target price less the effective price).

             Date of futures forecast:            26-Aug-04
Table 1. Futures model forecast of U.S. corn producers' season-average price received and CCP r
                               Step # 1                                            Step # 2                         Step # 3
 (Col. A)          (Col. B)                    (Col. C)                  (Col. D)              (Col. E)              (Col. F)
Marketing    Current futures         Futures price based                Basis (5-year U.S.    Monthly farm Actual monthly
year month   price by trading on nearby contract 3/                               average) price forecast            farm price, if
1/                 contract 2/                                                                                        available 4/
          -------------------------------------------------------------------Dollars per bushel----------------------------------------------------------
September                                                                             -0.30                                    2.20
October                                                                                 -0.27                                    2.12
November                                                                                -0.22                                    2.20
December                       0.00                                                     -0.18                                    2.32
January                                                                                 -0.15                                    2.39
February                                                                                -0.13                                    2.61
March                          0.00                                                     -0.15                                    2.75
April                                                                                   -0.14                                    2.89
May                            0.00                                                     -0.18                                    2.87
June                                                                                    -0.15                                    2.79
July                           0.00                        2.25                         -0.18                2.07                2.42
August                                                     2.25                         -0.24                2.02                0.00
September                      2.25

Forecast of season-average price received:

Step # 5 Futures model forecast of the season-average price received (weighted average) ($/bu.)                           =

Forecast of counter cyclical payment rate:
Step # 6
                CCP rate ($/bu.)                          -0.08           =            Target price ($/bu.)                     2.60

           Effective price ($/bu.)                         2.68           =            Direct payment rate                +      the larger of
                                                                                                         0.28



1/ The marketing year for corn is September-August.
2/ Contract months include December, March, May, July, and, September. Futures price quotation from the Chicago Board of
A value of zero implies futures prices are not available for that date.
3/ When the forecast month coincides with the month during which the contract expires, futures prices are obtained from the n
4/ A value of zero implies farm prices received are not available. The last price listed in this column represents the mid-month
Chart of weekly futures model forecasts for the entire marketing year (figure 1)

─ The CCP rate will be positive if the futures forecast of the season-average price received falls below the CCP trigg
of $2.32/bu.

─ The CCP rate will be zero if the futures forecast of the season-average price received equals or exceeds the CCP tr
price of $2.32/bu.

─ The CCP rate will be at its maximum of $0.32/bu. when the futures forecast of the season-average price received i
than or equal to the national average loan rate of $1.98/bu.



                                                               Figure 1. Futures forecast of U.S. corn producers' season-average price receive



                                                        3.40

                                                        3.20
   Season-average price received (Dollars per bushel)




                                                        3.00

                                                        2.80

                                                        2.60

                                                        2.40

                                                        2.20

                                                        2.00

                                                        1.80

                                                        1.60

                                                        1.40

                                                        1.20

                                                        1.00
                                                                                         Forecast period




Explanation of detailed computational steps for the weekly futures model forecasts (table 2 through 7)

─ Step # 1 enters each Thursday’s closing price from each trading contract for the respective marketing year's mont
Prices are taken from Data!table1 and entered into table 2.

─ Step # 2 calculates a monthly price-received forecast and enters into table 3. This forecast is the sum of a 5-year
monthly basis from Data!table 8 and the futures price in table 2.

─ Step # 3 inserts a monthly price received, if available, from Data!table 4 into table 4. Initially, this is a mid-month
but a month later becomes the full month price received.

─ Step # 4 computes each month’s price received forecast, weighted by percentage of monthly marketings, and inse
table 6. It is a product of the monthly composite forecast in table 5 times a 5-year average of monthly marketing we
from Data!table 10.

─ Step # 5 computes the weekly forecasts for season-average price received and enters them into table 7. Each wee
forecast is a summation of that week's price weights (table 6) for each month of the marketing year.

─ Step # 6 calculates forecasts of the counter-cyclical payment rate (target price less the effective price) and enters t
into table 7. Policy parameters are in Data!table 13.


Table 2. Weekly nearby futures price by marketing year month, marketing year 2003/04
Calendar        Forecast
year            period 1/               September               October      November           December

       2003        1-May-03                    2.33                   2.33            2.33            2.41
                   8-May-03                    2.42                   2.42            2.42            2.48
                  15-May-03                    2.52                   2.52            2.52            2.56
                  22-May-03                    2.43                   2.43            2.43            2.49
                  29-May-03                    2.44                   2.44            2.44            2.50
                   5-Jun-03                    2.37                   2.37            2.37            2.43
                  12-Jun-03                    2.46                   2.46            2.46            2.52
                  19-Jun-03                    2.42                   2.42            2.42            2.47
                  26-Jun-03                    2.28                   2.28            2.28            2.34
                    3-Jul-03                   2.22                   2.22            2.22            2.30
                   10-Jul-03                   2.17                   2.17            2.17            2.25
                   17-Jul-03                   2.12                   2.12            2.12            2.20
                   24-Jul-03                   2.12                   2.12            2.12            2.21
         31-Jul-03   2.12   2.12   2.12   2.21
         7-Aug-03    2.20   2.20   2.20   2.29
       14-Aug-03     2.30   2.30   2.30   2.37
       21-Aug-03     2.33   2.33   2.33   2.39
       28-Aug-03     2.39   2.39   2.39   2.45
         4-Sep-03    2.47   2.47   2.47   2.52
       11-Sep-03     2.33   2.33   2.33   2.41
       18-Sep-03     2.24   2.24   2.24   2.31
       25-Sep-03     2.26   2.26   2.26   2.34
         2-Oct-03    2.20   2.20   2.20   2.29
         9-Oct-03    2.22   2.22   2.22   2.29
        16-Oct-03    2.15   2.15   2.15   2.22
        23-Oct-03    2.35   2.35   2.35   2.41
        30-Oct-03    2.48   2.48   2.48   2.53
         6-Nov-03    2.34   2.34   2.34   2.40
       13-Nov-03     2.41   2.41   2.41   2.47
       20-Nov-03     2.35   2.35   2.35   2.41
       27-Nov-03     2.43   2.43   2.43   2.47
         4-Dec-03                         2.49
       11-Dec-03                          2.51
       18-Dec-03                          2.50
2004   25-Dec-03                          2.36
         1-Jan-04                         2.46
         8-Jan-04                         2.52
       15-Jan-04                          2.69
       22-Jan-04                          2.76
       29-Jan-04                          2.70
         5-Feb-04                         2.75
       12-Feb-04                          2.81
       19-Feb-04                          2.85
       26-Feb-04                          2.96
         4-Mar-04
       11-Mar-04
       18-Mar-04
       25-Mar-04
         1-Apr-04
         8-Apr-04
        15-Apr-04
        22-Apr-04
        29-Apr-04
        6-May-04
       13-May-04
       20-May-04
       27-May-04
         3-Jun-04
       10-Jun-04
       17-Jun-04
       24-Jun-04
          1-Jul-04
          8-Jul-04
         15-Jul-04
         22-Jul-04
                     29-Jul-04
                     5-Aug-04
                    12-Aug-04
                    19-Aug-04
                    26-Aug-04

1/ Weekly forecast reflects futures closing price on that date.


Table 3. Monthly price-received forecast (nearby futures price plus the basis) by weekly forecast period, marketing yea
Calendar            Forecast                 Basis average
year                period 1/                                                   September        October

       2003          1-May-03 Basis= 5-year avg. 1997-2001 mkt. yr.                 2.05            2.05
                     8-May-03                                                       2.14            2.13
                    15-May-03                                                       2.24            2.23
                    22-May-03                                                       2.15            2.15
                    29-May-03                                                       2.16            2.16
                      5-Jun-03                                                      2.09            2.08
                    12-Jun-03                                                       2.18            2.18
                    19-Jun-03                                                       2.14            2.13
                    26-Jun-03                                                       2.00            2.00
                       3-Jul-03                                                     1.94            1.94
                      10-Jul-03                                                     1.89            1.89
                      17-Jul-03                                                     1.84            1.83
                      24-Jul-03                                                     1.84            1.83
                      31-Jul-03                                                     1.84            1.84
                      7-Aug-03                                                      1.92            1.92
                    14-Aug-03                                                       2.02            2.01
                    21-Aug-03                                                       2.05            2.04
                    28-Aug-03                                                       2.11            2.10
                      4-Sep-03                                                      2.19            2.19
                    11-Sep-03                                                       2.05            2.05
                    18-Sep-03                                                       1.96            1.95
                    25-Sep-03                                                       1.98            1.98
                      2-Oct-03 Basis=5-year avg. 1998-2002 mkt. yr.                 1.90            1.94
                      9-Oct-03                                                      1.91            1.95
                     16-Oct-03                                                      1.84            1.88
                     23-Oct-03                                                      2.05            2.08
                     30-Oct-03                                                      2.17            2.21
                      6-Nov-03                                                      2.04            2.08
                    13-Nov-03                                                       2.10            2.14
                    20-Nov-03                                                       2.05            2.09
                    27-Nov-03                                                       2.12            2.16
                      4-Dec-03
                    11-Dec-03
                    18-Dec-03
       2004         25-Dec-03
                      1-Jan-04
                      8-Jan-04
                    15-Jan-04
                    22-Jan-04
                    29-Jan-04
                      5-Feb-04
                    12-Feb-04
                    19-Feb-04
                    26-Feb-04
                      4-Mar-04
                    11-Mar-04
                    18-Mar-04
                    25-Mar-04
                      1-Apr-04
                      8-Apr-04
                     15-Apr-04
                     22-Apr-04
                     29-Apr-04
                     6-May-04
                    13-May-04
                    20-May-04
                    27-May-04
                      3-Jun-04
                    10-Jun-04
                    17-Jun-04
                    24-Jun-04
                       1-Jul-04
                       8-Jul-04
                     15-Jul-04
                     22-Jul-04
                     29-Jul-04
                      5-Aug-04
                    12-Aug-04
                    19-Aug-04
                    26-Aug-04

1/ Weekly forecast reflects futures closing price on that date.


Table 4. Actual monthly farm price received by weekly forecast period, marketing year 2003/04
Calendar           Forecast       Release date of
year               period 1/ Agricultural Prices 2/                          September        October

       2003          1-May-03
                     8-May-03
                    15-May-03
                    22-May-03
                    29-May-03
                     5-Jun-03
                    12-Jun-03
                    19-Jun-03
                    26-Jun-03
                      3-Jul-03
                     10-Jul-03
                     17-Jul-03
                     24-Jul-03
         31-Jul-03
         7-Aug-03
       14-Aug-03
       21-Aug-03
       28-Aug-03
         4-Sep-03
       11-Sep-03
       18-Sep-03
       25-Sep-03
         2-Oct-03    September 30, 2003    2.13
         9-Oct-03                          2.13
        16-Oct-03                          2.13
        23-Oct-03                          2.13
        30-Oct-03                          2.13
         6-Nov-03      October 31, 2003    2.20   2.02
       13-Nov-03                           2.20   2.02
       20-Nov-03                           2.20   2.02
       27-Nov-03                           2.20   2.02
         4-Dec-03    November 28, 2003     2.20   2.12
       11-Dec-03                           2.20   2.12
       18-Dec-03                           2.20   2.12
       25-Dec-03                           2.20   2.12
2004     1-Jan-04    December 31, 2003     2.20   2.12
         8-Jan-04                          2.20   2.12
       15-Jan-04                           2.20   2.12
       22-Jan-04                           2.20   2.12
       29-Jan-04                           2.20   2.12
         5-Feb-04      January 30, 2004    2.20   2.12
       12-Feb-04                           2.20   2.12
       19-Feb-04                           2.20   2.12
       26-Feb-04                           2.20   2.12
         4-Mar-04     February 27, 2004    2.20   2.12
       11-Mar-04                           2.20   2.12
       18-Mar-04                           2.20   2.12
       25-Mar-04                           2.20   2.12
         1-Apr-04        March 30, 2004    2.20   2.12
         8-Apr-04                          2.20   2.12
        15-Apr-04                          2.20   2.12
        22-Apr-04                          2.20   2.12
        29-Apr-04                          2.20   2.12
        6-May-04          April 30, 2004   2.20   2.12
       13-May-04                           2.20   2.12
       20-May-04                           2.20   2.12
       27-May-04                           2.20   2.12
         3-Jun-04          May 28, 2004    2.20   2.12
       10-Jun-04                           2.20   2.12
       17-Jun-04                           2.20   2.12
       24-Jun-04                           2.20   2.12
          1-Jul-04        June 29, 2004    2.20   2.12
          8-Jul-04                         2.20   2.12
         15-Jul-04                         2.20   2.12
         22-Jul-04                         2.20   2.12
                     29-Jul-04                                                              2.20             2.12
                     5-Aug-04            July 30, 2004                                      2.20             2.12
                    12-Aug-04                                                               2.20             2.12
                    19-Aug-04                                                               2.20             2.12
                    26-Aug-04                                                               2.20             2.12

1/ Weekly forecast reflects available farm prices received on that date.
2/ Agricultural Prices for any given month (e.g., September) lists prices received in that month (September). The last price liste


Table 5. Composite forecast of futures forecasts and actual price received (when available), by weekly forecast period
Calendar           Forecast
year               period 1/            September                October      November        December

       2003          1-May-03                     2.05                     2.05             2.09             2.19
                     8-May-03                     2.14                     2.13             2.17             2.27
                    15-May-03                     2.24                     2.23             2.27             2.35
                    22-May-03                     2.15                     2.15             2.19             2.27
                    29-May-03                     2.16                     2.16             2.20             2.29
                      5-Jun-03                    2.09                     2.08             2.12             2.22
                    12-Jun-03                     2.18                     2.18             2.22             2.31
                    19-Jun-03                     2.14                     2.13             2.17             2.26
                    26-Jun-03                     2.00                     2.00             2.04             2.13
                       3-Jul-03                   1.94                     1.94             1.98             2.08
                      10-Jul-03                   1.89                     1.89             1.93             2.03
                      17-Jul-03                   1.84                     1.83             1.87             1.99
                      24-Jul-03                   1.84                     1.83             1.87             1.99
                      31-Jul-03                   1.84                     1.84             1.88             2.00
                      7-Aug-03                    1.92                     1.92             1.96             2.07
                    14-Aug-03                     2.02                     2.01             2.05             2.16
                    21-Aug-03                     2.05                     2.04             2.08             2.18
                    28-Aug-03                     2.11                     2.10             2.14             2.24
                      4-Sep-03                    2.19                     2.19             2.23             2.31
                    11-Sep-03                     2.05                     2.05             2.09             2.19
                    18-Sep-03                     1.96                     1.95             1.99             2.10
                    25-Sep-03                     1.98                     1.98             2.02             2.13
                      2-Oct-03                    2.13                     1.94             1.98             2.11
                      9-Oct-03                    2.13                     1.95             2.00             2.12
                     16-Oct-03                    2.13                     1.88             1.93             2.04
                     23-Oct-03                    2.13                     2.08             2.13             2.23
                     30-Oct-03                    2.13                     2.21             2.26             2.35
                      6-Nov-03                    2.20                     2.02             2.12             2.23
                    13-Nov-03                     2.20                     2.02             2.19             2.29
                    20-Nov-03                     2.20                     2.02             2.13             2.23
                    27-Nov-03                     2.20                     2.02             2.20             2.30
                      4-Dec-03                    2.20                     2.12             2.24             2.31
                    11-Dec-03                     2.20                     2.12             2.24             2.33
                    18-Dec-03                     2.20                     2.12             2.24             2.32
                    25-Dec-03                     2.20                     2.12             2.24             2.18
       2004           1-Jan-04                    2.20                     2.12             2.20             2.32
                      8-Jan-04                    2.20                     2.12             2.20             2.32
                    15-Jan-04                     2.20                     2.12             2.20             2.32
                    22-Jan-04                      2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                    29-Jan-04                      2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                      5-Feb-04                     2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                    12-Feb-04                      2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                    19-Feb-04                      2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                    26-Feb-04                      2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                      4-Mar-04                     2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                    11-Mar-04                      2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                    18-Mar-04                      2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                    25-Mar-04                      2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                      1-Apr-04                     2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                      8-Apr-04                     2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                     15-Apr-04                     2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                     22-Apr-04                     2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                     29-Apr-04                     2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                     6-May-04                      2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                    13-May-04                      2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                    20-May-04                      2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                    27-May-04                      2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                      3-Jun-04                     2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                    10-Jun-04                      2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                    17-Jun-04                      2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                    24-Jun-04                      2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                       1-Jul-04                    2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                       8-Jul-04                    2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                     15-Jul-04                     2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                     22-Jul-04                     2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                     29-Jul-04                     2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                      5-Aug-04                     2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                    12-Aug-04                      2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                    19-Aug-04                      2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32
                    26-Aug-04                      2.20                     2.12             2.20        2.32

1/ Weekly forecast reflects closing futures prices and/or available farm prices received on that date.


Table 6. Composite forecast/actual monthly farm price received weighted by percentage of monthly marketings by we
Calendar           Forecast          Marketing-weight average
year               period 1/                                                September       October

       2003          1-May-03 Mkt. wt.= 5-year avg. 1997-2001 mkt. yr.                       0.17        0.28
                     8-May-03                                                                0.18        0.29
                    15-May-03                                                                0.19        0.31
                    22-May-03                                                                0.18        0.30
                    29-May-03                                                                0.18        0.30
                     5-Jun-03                                                                0.18        0.29
                    12-Jun-03                                                                0.18        0.30
                    19-Jun-03                                                                0.18        0.29
                    26-Jun-03                                                                0.17        0.28
                      3-Jul-03                                                               0.16        0.27
                     10-Jul-03                                                               0.16        0.26
                     17-Jul-03                                                               0.16        0.25
         24-Jul-03                                           0.16   0.25
         31-Jul-03                                           0.16   0.25
         7-Aug-03                                            0.16   0.26
       14-Aug-03                                             0.17   0.28
       21-Aug-03                                             0.17   0.28
       28-Aug-03                                             0.18   0.29
         4-Sep-03                                            0.19   0.30
       11-Sep-03                                             0.17   0.28
       18-Sep-03                                             0.17   0.27
       25-Sep-03                                             0.17   0.27
         2-Oct-03 Mkt. wt.= 5-year avg. 1998-2002 mkt. yr.   0.18   0.27
         9-Oct-03                                            0.18   0.27
        16-Oct-03                                            0.18   0.26
        23-Oct-03                                            0.18   0.29
        30-Oct-03                                            0.18   0.30
         6-Nov-03                                            0.19   0.28
       13-Nov-03                                             0.19   0.28
       20-Nov-03                                             0.19   0.28
       27-Nov-03                                             0.19   0.28
         4-Dec-03                                            0.19   0.29
       11-Dec-03                                             0.19   0.29
       18-Dec-03                                             0.19   0.29
       25-Dec-03                                             0.19   0.29
2004     1-Jan-04                                            0.19   0.29
         8-Jan-04                                            0.19   0.29
       15-Jan-04                                             0.19   0.29
       22-Jan-04                                             0.19   0.29
       29-Jan-04                                             0.19   0.29
         5-Feb-04                                            0.19   0.29
       12-Feb-04                                             0.19   0.29
       19-Feb-04                                             0.19   0.29
       26-Feb-04                                             0.19   0.29
         4-Mar-04                                            0.19   0.29
       11-Mar-04                                             0.19   0.29
       18-Mar-04                                             0.19   0.29
       25-Mar-04                                             0.19   0.29
         1-Apr-04                                            0.19   0.29
         8-Apr-04                                            0.19   0.29
        15-Apr-04                                            0.19   0.29
        22-Apr-04                                            0.19   0.29
        29-Apr-04                                            0.19   0.29
        6-May-04                                             0.19   0.29
       13-May-04                                             0.19   0.29
       20-May-04                                             0.19   0.29
       27-May-04                                             0.19   0.29
         3-Jun-04                                            0.19   0.29
       10-Jun-04                                             0.19   0.29
       17-Jun-04                                             0.19   0.29
       24-Jun-04                                             0.19   0.29
          1-Jul-04                                           0.19   0.29
          8-Jul-04                                           0.19   0.29
         15-Jul-04                                           0.19   0.29
                     22-Jul-04                                                               0.19           0.29
                     29-Jul-04                                                               0.19           0.29
                     5-Aug-04                                                                0.19           0.29
                    12-Aug-04                                                                0.19           0.29
                    19-Aug-04                                                                0.19           0.29
                    26-Aug-04                                                                0.19           0.29

1/ Weekly forecast reflects closing futures prices and/or available farm prices received on that date.


Table 7. Futures forecast of season-average price received (SAP) and implied counter-cyclical payment rate by weekl
  Calendar Forecast period                          Futures SAP forecast                Midpoint of the
       year                1/                                                             WASDE SAP
                                                                                              projection
                                                             Dollars per bushel                Dollars per bushel
       2003          1-May-03                                              2.18                              #N/A
                     8-May-03                                              2.26                              #N/A
                    15-May-03                                              2.33                              2.10
                    22-May-03                                              2.26                              2.10
                    29-May-03                                              2.27                              2.10
                      5-Jun-03                                             2.20                              2.10
                    12-Jun-03                                              2.28                              2.10
                    19-Jun-03                                              2.24                              2.10
                    26-Jun-03                                              2.13                              2.10
                       3-Jul-03                                            2.09                              2.10
                      10-Jul-03                                            2.04                              2.10
                      17-Jul-03                                            2.00                              2.10
                      24-Jul-03                                            2.00                              2.10
                      31-Jul-03                                            2.00                              2.10
                      7-Aug-03                                             2.07                              2.10
                    14-Aug-03                                              2.15                              2.20
                    21-Aug-03                                              2.16                              2.20
                    28-Aug-03                                              2.22                              2.20
                      4-Sep-03                                             2.29                              2.20
                    11-Sep-03                                              2.18                              2.30
                    18-Sep-03                                              2.10                              2.30
                    25-Sep-03                                              2.12                              2.30
                      2-Oct-03                                             2.11                              2.30
                      9-Oct-03                                             2.12                              2.10
                     16-Oct-03                                             2.05                              2.10
                     23-Oct-03                                             2.21                              2.10
                     30-Oct-03                                             2.32                              2.10
                      6-Nov-03                                             2.21                              2.10
                    13-Nov-03                                              2.26                              2.10
                    20-Nov-03                                              2.21                              2.10
                    27-Nov-03                                              2.26                              2.10
                      4-Dec-03                                             2.29                              2.10
                    11-Dec-03                                              2.29                              2.20
                    18-Dec-03                                              2.29                              2.20
                    25-Dec-03                                              2.21                              2.20
       2004           1-Jan-04                                             2.27                              2.20
                     8-Jan-04                         2.31   2.20
                   15-Jan-04                          2.41   2.30
                   22-Jan-04                          2.45   2.30
                   29-Jan-04                          2.41   2.30
                     5-Feb-04                         2.43   2.30
                   12-Feb-04                          2.46   2.45
                   19-Feb-04                          2.47   2.45
                   26-Feb-04                          2.52   2.45
                     4-Mar-04                         2.48   2.45
                   11-Mar-04                          2.49   2.45
                   18-Mar-04                          2.54   2.45
                   25-Mar-04                          2.52   2.45
                     1-Apr-04                         2.58   2.45
                     8-Apr-04                         2.61   2.55
                    15-Apr-04                         2.53   2.55
                    22-Apr-04                         2.51   2.55
                    29-Apr-04                         2.54   2.55
                    6-May-04                          2.51   2.55
                   13-May-04                          2.47   2.50
                   20-May-04                          2.46   2.50
                   27-May-04                          2.48   2.50
                     3-Jun-04                         2.51   2.50
                   10-Jun-04                          2.46   2.50
                   17-Jun-04                          2.45   2.50
                   24-Jun-04                          2.44   2.50
                      1-Jul-04                        2.43   2.50
                      8-Jul-04                        2.41   2.50
                    15-Jul-04                         2.40   2.43
                    22-Jul-04                         2.36   2.43
                    29-Jul-04                         2.36   2.43
                     5-Aug-04                         2.40   2.43
                   12-Aug-04                          2.39   2.40
                   19-Aug-04                          2.40   2.40
                   26-Aug-04                          2.40   2.40

#NA = Not available.
1/ Date on which the closing prices are observed.
2/ A negative value implies a CCP rate of $0.00/bu.
payment (CCP) rate




ear (tables 2 through 7)




al payment (CCP) rate:




able 1, column B. These prices


ar average basis found in column
al monthly farm prices received


Initially, this is a mid-month


columns G and H. Column G
 reflects each month’s 5-year-


rice weights found in column I.
).


ce received and CCP rate, marketing year 2003/04
                                                          Step # 4
                       (Col. G)                          (Col. H)             (Col. I)
                   Composite monthly                  Monthly marketing       Monthly price
                forecast actual/futures              weights (5-year U.S.            weight
                                                                average)
----------------------------------------------------             Percent Dollars per bushel
                                          2.20                        8.6              0.190
                                    2.12                        13.8                 0.292
                                    2.20                        10.9                 0.239
                                    2.32                         7.1                 0.166
                                    2.39                        14.0                 0.335
                                    2.61                         6.3                 0.165
                                    2.75                         7.3                 0.200
                                    2.89                         5.5                 0.160
                                    2.87                         5.2                 0.149
                                    2.79                         5.7                 0.158
                                    2.42                         7.3                 0.177
                                    2.02                         8.3                 0.167
               Sum of weights =                               100.0




                                                                                      2.40




                          -           Effective price ($/bu.)                         2.68

     +   the larger of               [National average price or           National average]
                                         received for mktg yr                  loan rate
                                                            2.40                     1.95


 rom the Chicago Board of Trade closing prices.

ces are obtained from the next nearby contract.
 represents the mid-month price, other prices reflect the full month price.
falls below the CCP trigger price



als or exceeds the CCP trigger



n-average price received is less




 average price received (SAP) and CCP rate, marketing year 2003-04


                                                                        0.35

                               Actual SAP (available in October 2004)
                               Futures SAP forecast
                               Midpoint of the WASDE SAP projection
                                                                        0.30

                               CCP trigger price
                               National average loan rate
                               Futures CCP rate forecast                0.25
                               WASDE CCP rate projection
                                                                               CCP rate (Dollars per bushel)



                                                                        0.20




                                                                        0.15




                                                                        0.10




                                                                        0.05




                                                                        0.00
 ble 2 through 7)

ve marketing year's month.


st is the sum of a 5-year average


tially, this is a mid-month price


thly marketings, and inserts into
of monthly marketing weight


m into table 7. Each weekly
ng year.

fective price) and enters them




                                 Marketing year month
                           January               February    March   April   May
                                   Dollars per bushel
                              2.41                    2.41    2.45   2.45    2.47
                              2.48                    2.48    2.52   2.52    2.54
                              2.56                    2.56    2.59   2.59    2.60
                              2.49                    2.49    2.52   2.52    2.54
                              2.50                    2.50    2.54   2.54    2.56
                              2.43                    2.43    2.47   2.47    2.49
                              2.52                    2.52    2.55   2.55    2.57
                              2.47                    2.47    2.52   2.52    2.53
                              2.34                    2.34    2.39   2.39    2.41
                              2.30                    2.30    2.36   2.36    2.38
                              2.25                    2.25    2.31   2.31    2.35
                              2.20                    2.20    2.26   2.26    2.30
                              2.21                    2.21    2.27   2.27    2.31
2.21   2.21   2.27   2.27   2.31
2.29   2.29   2.34   2.34   2.37
2.37   2.37   2.42   2.42   2.44
2.39   2.39   2.42   2.42   2.43
2.45   2.45   2.48   2.48   2.49
2.52   2.52   2.54   2.54   2.55
2.41   2.41   2.44   2.44   2.47
2.31   2.31   2.36   2.36   2.40
2.34   2.34   2.39   2.39   2.42
2.29   2.29   2.34   2.34   2.37
2.29   2.29   2.34   2.34   2.37
2.22   2.22   2.27   2.27   2.30
2.41   2.41   2.45   2.45   2.48
2.53   2.53   2.57   2.57   2.59
2.40   2.40   2.44   2.44   2.47
2.47   2.47   2.51   2.51   2.54
2.41   2.41   2.45   2.45   2.47
2.47   2.47   2.50   2.50   2.52
2.49   2.49   2.52   2.52   2.53
2.51   2.51   2.52   2.52   2.54
2.50   2.50   2.53   2.53   2.55
2.36   2.36   2.40   2.40   2.43
2.46   2.46   2.49   2.49   2.51
2.52   2.52   2.55   2.55   2.58
2.69   2.69   2.73   2.73   2.76
2.76   2.76   2.80   2.80   2.83
2.70   2.70   2.74   2.74   2.78
2.75   2.75   2.80   2.80   2.83
2.81   2.81   2.88   2.88   2.90
2.85   2.85   2.91   2.91   2.94
2.96   2.96   3.02   3.02   3.04
              2.97   2.97   3.01
              2.99   2.99   3.03
              3.12   3.12   3.16
              3.07   3.07   3.12
              3.26   3.26   3.32
              3.31   3.31   3.38
              3.08   3.08   3.16
              3.04   3.04   3.10
              3.14   3.14   3.20
                            3.10
                            2.95
                            2.92
                            2.99
                            3.11
                            2.86
                            2.78
                            2.73
cast period, marketing year 2003/04
                                                 Marketing year month
                        November      December   January              February   March
                                                   Dollars per bushel
                             2.09         2.19      2.24                  2.26    2.26
                             2.17         2.27      2.31                  2.34    2.33
                             2.27         2.35      2.39                  2.42    2.41
                             2.19         2.27      2.32                  2.34    2.34
                             2.20         2.29      2.33                  2.36    2.35
                             2.12         2.22      2.26                  2.28    2.28
                             2.22         2.31      2.35                  2.37    2.37
                             2.17         2.26      2.30                  2.33    2.33
                             2.04         2.13      2.17                  2.20    2.20
                             1.98         2.08      2.13                  2.15    2.17
                             1.93         2.03      2.08                  2.10    2.12
                             1.87         1.99      2.03                  2.06    2.08
                             1.87         1.99      2.04                  2.06    2.08
                             1.88         2.00      2.04                  2.07    2.08
                             1.96         2.07      2.12                  2.14    2.15
                             2.05         2.16      2.20                  2.23    2.23
                             2.08         2.18      2.22                  2.25    2.24
                             2.14         2.24      2.28                  2.31    2.29
                             2.23         2.31      2.35                  2.38    2.35
                             2.09         2.19      2.24                  2.26    2.25
                             1.99         2.10      2.14                  2.17    2.17
                             2.02         2.13      2.17                  2.19    2.20
                             1.98         2.11      2.14                  2.16    2.18
                             2.00         2.12      2.15                  2.17    2.19
                             1.93         2.04      2.07                  2.09    2.11
                             2.13         2.23      2.26                  2.28    2.29
                             2.26         2.35      2.38                  2.40    2.41
                             2.12         2.23      2.26                  2.28    2.29
                             2.19         2.29      2.32                  2.34    2.36
                             2.13         2.23      2.26                  2.28    2.29
                             2.20         2.30      2.33                  2.35    2.35
                                          2.31      2.34                  2.36    2.36
                                          2.33      2.36                  2.38    2.37
                                          2.32      2.35                  2.37    2.37
                                          2.18      2.21                  2.23    2.24
                                          2.28      2.31                  2.33    2.33
                                          2.34      2.37                  2.39    2.40
                                          2.51      2.54                  2.56    2.57
                                          2.58      2.61                  2.63    2.65
               2.52      2.55                  2.57    2.59
               2.58      2.61                  2.63    2.65
               2.64      2.67                  2.69    2.72
               2.67      2.70                  2.72    2.76
               2.78      2.81                  2.83    2.87
                                                       2.82
                                                       2.84
                                                       2.97
                                                       2.91
                                                       3.10
                                                       3.15
                                                       2.92
                                                       2.89
                                                       2.99




                      Marketing year month
November   December   January              February   March
                        Dollars per bushel
2.24
2.24
2.24
2.24
2.20   2.32
2.20   2.32
2.20   2.32
2.20   2.32
2.20   2.32
2.20   2.32   2.46
2.20   2.32   2.46
2.20   2.32   2.46
2.20   2.32   2.46
2.20   2.32   2.39   2.55
2.20   2.32   2.39   2.55
2.20   2.32   2.39   2.55
2.20   2.32   2.39   2.55
2.20   2.32   2.39   2.61   2.79
2.20   2.32   2.39   2.61   2.79
2.20   2.32   2.39   2.61   2.79
2.20   2.32   2.39   2.61   2.79
2.20   2.32   2.39   2.61   2.79
2.20   2.32   2.39   2.61   2.75
2.20   2.32   2.39   2.61   2.75
2.20   2.32   2.39   2.61   2.75
2.20   2.32   2.39   2.61   2.75
2.20   2.32   2.39   2.61   2.75
2.20   2.32   2.39   2.61   2.75
2.20   2.32   2.39   2.61   2.75
2.20   2.32   2.39   2.61   2.75
2.20   2.32   2.39   2.61   2.75
2.20   2.32   2.39   2.61   2.75
2.20   2.32   2.39   2.61   2.75
2.20   2.32   2.39   2.61   2.75
                                2.20                     2.32                2.39                     2.61    2.75
                                2.20                     2.32                2.39                     2.61    2.75
                                2.20                     2.32                2.39                     2.61    2.75
                                2.20                     2.32                2.39                     2.61    2.75
                                2.20                     2.32                2.39                     2.61    2.75


ember). The last price listed in the row is a mid-month price and all others are full month prices.


by weekly forecast period, marketing year 2003/04
                                Marketing year month
                          January               February                   March                      April   May
                                  Dollars per bushel
                             2.24                    2.26                    2.26                     2.30    2.27
                             2.31                    2.34                    2.33                     2.37    2.35
                             2.39                    2.42                    2.41                     2.45    2.41
                             2.32                    2.34                    2.34                     2.38    2.35
                             2.33                    2.36                    2.35                     2.40    2.36
                             2.26                    2.28                    2.28                     2.33    2.30
                             2.35                    2.37                    2.37                     2.41    2.37
                             2.30                    2.33                    2.33                     2.37    2.34
                             2.17                    2.20                    2.20                     2.25    2.21
                             2.13                    2.15                    2.17                     2.21    2.19
                             2.08                    2.10                    2.12                     2.16    2.15
                             2.03                    2.06                    2.08                     2.12    2.11
                             2.04                    2.06                    2.08                     2.12    2.12
                             2.04                    2.07                    2.08                     2.13    2.12
                             2.12                    2.14                    2.15                     2.20    2.18
                             2.20                    2.23                    2.23                     2.28    2.25
                             2.22                    2.25                    2.24                     2.28    2.24
                             2.28                    2.31                    2.29                     2.34    2.30
                             2.35                    2.38                    2.35                     2.40    2.36
                             2.24                    2.26                    2.25                     2.30    2.27
                             2.14                    2.17                    2.17                     2.22    2.20
                             2.17                    2.19                    2.20                     2.24    2.22
                             2.14                    2.16                    2.18                     2.20    2.19
                             2.15                    2.17                    2.19                     2.20    2.19
                             2.07                    2.09                    2.11                     2.13    2.12
                             2.26                    2.28                    2.29                     2.31    2.30
                             2.38                    2.40                    2.41                     2.43    2.41
                             2.26                    2.28                    2.29                     2.31    2.29
                             2.32                    2.34                    2.36                     2.37    2.36
                             2.26                    2.28                    2.29                     2.31    2.29
                             2.33                    2.35                    2.35                     2.37    2.34
                             2.34                    2.36                    2.36                     2.38    2.35
                             2.36                    2.38                    2.37                     2.39    2.36
                             2.35                    2.37                    2.37                     2.39    2.37
                             2.21                    2.23                    2.24                     2.26    2.25
                             2.31                    2.33                    2.33                     2.35    2.33
                             2.37                    2.39                    2.40                     2.41    2.40
                             2.54                    2.56                    2.57                     2.59    2.58
                             2.61                 2.63             2.65                   2.66    2.65
                             2.55                 2.57             2.59                   2.61    2.60
                             2.46                 2.63             2.65                   2.67    2.65
                             2.46                 2.69             2.72                   2.74    2.72
                             2.46                 2.72             2.76                   2.78    2.76
                             2.46                 2.83             2.87                   2.88    2.86
                             2.39                 2.55             2.82                   2.83    2.83
                             2.39                 2.55             2.84                   2.85    2.85
                             2.39                 2.55             2.97                   2.98    2.98
                             2.39                 2.55             2.91                   2.93    2.94
                             2.39                 2.61             2.79                   3.12    3.14
                             2.39                 2.61             2.79                   3.17    3.20
                             2.39                 2.61             2.79                   2.94    2.98
                             2.39                 2.61             2.79                   2.90    2.92
                             2.39                 2.61             2.79                   3.00    3.02
                             2.39                 2.61             2.75                   2.87    2.92
                             2.39                 2.61             2.75                   2.87    2.77
                             2.39                 2.61             2.75                   2.87    2.74
                             2.39                 2.61             2.75                   2.87    2.81
                             2.39                 2.61             2.75                   2.89    2.78
                             2.39                 2.61             2.75                   2.89    2.78
                             2.39                 2.61             2.75                   2.89    2.78
                             2.39                 2.61             2.75                   2.89    2.78
                             2.39                 2.61             2.75                   2.89    2.87
                             2.39                 2.61             2.75                   2.89    2.87
                             2.39                 2.61             2.75                   2.89    2.87
                             2.39                 2.61             2.75                   2.89    2.87
                             2.39                 2.61             2.75                   2.89    2.87
                             2.39                 2.61             2.75                   2.89    2.87
                             2.39                 2.61             2.75                   2.89    2.87
                             2.39                 2.61             2.75                   2.89    2.87
                             2.39                 2.61             2.75                   2.89    2.87




monthly marketings by weekly forecast period, marketing year 2003/04
                                                                 Marketing year month
                       November              December            January              February   March
                                                                   Dollars per bushel
                            0.22                  0.16               0.32                 0.15    0.17
                            0.23                  0.16               0.33                 0.15    0.17
                            0.24                  0.17               0.35                 0.16    0.18
                            0.23                  0.16               0.33                 0.15    0.17
                            0.23                  0.16               0.34                 0.15    0.17
                            0.22                  0.16               0.33                 0.15    0.17
                            0.23                  0.16               0.34                 0.15    0.18
                            0.23                  0.16               0.33                 0.15    0.17
                            0.21                  0.15               0.31                 0.14    0.16
                            0.21                  0.15               0.31                 0.14    0.16
                            0.20                  0.14               0.30                 0.14    0.16
                            0.19                  0.14               0.29                 0.13    0.15
0.19   0.14   0.29   0.13   0.15
0.19   0.14   0.29   0.13   0.15
0.20   0.15   0.31   0.14   0.16
0.21   0.15   0.32   0.14   0.17
0.22   0.16   0.32   0.15   0.17
0.22   0.16   0.33   0.15   0.17
0.23   0.16   0.34   0.15   0.17
0.22   0.16   0.32   0.15   0.17
0.21   0.15   0.31   0.14   0.16
0.21   0.15   0.31   0.14   0.16
0.22   0.15   0.30   0.14   0.16
0.22   0.15   0.30   0.14   0.16
0.21   0.15   0.29   0.13   0.15
0.23   0.16   0.32   0.14   0.17
0.25   0.17   0.33   0.15   0.18
0.23   0.16   0.32   0.14   0.17
0.24   0.16   0.33   0.15   0.17
0.23   0.16   0.32   0.14   0.17
0.24   0.16   0.33   0.15   0.17
0.24   0.17   0.33   0.15   0.17
0.24   0.17   0.33   0.15   0.17
0.24   0.17   0.33   0.15   0.17
0.24   0.16   0.31   0.14   0.16
0.24   0.17   0.32   0.15   0.17
0.24   0.17   0.33   0.15   0.17
0.24   0.17   0.36   0.16   0.19
0.24   0.17   0.37   0.17   0.19
0.24   0.17   0.36   0.16   0.19
0.24   0.17   0.34   0.17   0.19
0.24   0.17   0.34   0.17   0.20
0.24   0.17   0.34   0.17   0.20
0.24   0.17   0.34   0.18   0.21
0.24   0.17   0.33   0.16   0.20
0.24   0.17   0.33   0.16   0.21
0.24   0.17   0.33   0.16   0.22
0.24   0.17   0.33   0.16   0.21
0.24   0.17   0.33   0.17   0.20
0.24   0.17   0.33   0.17   0.20
0.24   0.17   0.33   0.17   0.20
0.24   0.17   0.33   0.17   0.20
0.24   0.17   0.33   0.17   0.20
0.24   0.17   0.33   0.17   0.20
0.24   0.17   0.33   0.17   0.20
0.24   0.17   0.33   0.17   0.20
0.24   0.17   0.33   0.17   0.20
0.24   0.17   0.33   0.17   0.20
0.24   0.17   0.33   0.17   0.20
0.24   0.17   0.33   0.17   0.20
0.24   0.17   0.33   0.17   0.20
0.24   0.17   0.33   0.17   0.20
0.24   0.17   0.33   0.17   0.20
0.24   0.17   0.33   0.17   0.20
                            0.24                 0.17                0.33    0.17         0.20
                            0.24                 0.17                0.33    0.17         0.20
                            0.24                 0.17                0.33    0.17         0.20
                            0.24                 0.17                0.33    0.17         0.20
                            0.24                 0.17                0.33    0.17         0.20
                            0.24                 0.17                0.33    0.17         0.20




al payment rate by weekly forecast period, marketing year 2003/04
             WASDE release date Actual SAP (available CCP trigger price                National
                                        in October 2004)                               average
                                                                                      loan rate
s per bushel                                            Dollars per bushel   Dollars per bushel
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                      12-May-03                  2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                      11-Jun-03                  2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                       11-Jul-03                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                      12-Aug-03                  2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                      11-Sep-03                  2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                       10-Oct-03                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                      12-Nov-03                  2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                      11-Dec-03                  2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
                                                 2.42                 2.32                 1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
12-Jan-03    2.42   2.32   1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
10-Feb-04    2.42   2.32   1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
10-Mar-04    2.42   2.32   1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
 8-Apr-04    2.42   2.32   1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
12-May-04    2.42   2.32   1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
10-Jun-04    2.42   2.32   1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
 12-Jul-04   2.42   2.32   1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
12-Aug-04    2.42   2.32   1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
             2.42   2.32   1.98
June   July   August

2.47   2.42     2.42
2.54   2.49     2.49
2.60   2.50     2.50
2.54   2.46     2.46
2.56   2.45     2.45
2.49   2.41     2.41
2.57   2.45     2.45
2.53   2.42     2.42
2.41   2.39     2.39
2.38   2.37     2.37
2.35   2.36     2.36
2.30   2.32     2.32
2.31   2.32     2.32
2.31   2.32   2.32
2.37   2.36   2.36
2.44   2.41   2.41
2.43   2.38   2.38
2.49   2.42   2.42
2.55   2.48   2.48
2.47   2.43   2.43
2.40   2.38   2.38
2.42   2.39   2.39
2.37   2.36   2.36
2.37   2.38   2.38
2.30   2.32   2.32
2.48   2.43   2.43
2.59   2.52   2.52
2.47   2.44   2.44
2.54   2.49   2.49
2.47   2.44   2.44
2.52   2.48   2.48
2.53   2.50   2.50
2.54   2.50   2.50
2.55   2.50   2.50
2.43   2.43   2.43
2.51   2.50   2.50
2.58   2.55   2.55
2.76   2.71   2.71
2.83   2.76   2.76
2.78   2.72   2.72
2.83   2.78   2.78
2.90   2.85   2.85
2.94   2.87   2.87
3.04   2.97   2.97
3.01   2.95   2.95
3.03   2.95   2.95
3.16   3.09   3.09
3.12   3.07   3.07
3.32   3.29   3.29
3.38   3.37   3.37
3.16   3.09   3.09
3.10   3.07   3.07
3.20   3.15   3.15
3.10   3.07   3.07
2.95   2.91   2.91
2.92   2.86   2.86
2.99   2.95   2.95
3.11   3.11   3.11
2.86   2.90   2.90
2.78   2.81   2.81
2.73   2.78   2.78
       2.63   2.63
       2.49   2.49
       2.43   2.43
       2.19   2.19
        2.19   2.19
        2.24   2.24
        2.18   2.18
        2.29   2.29
        2.25   2.25




April   May    June   July   August

2.30    2.27   2.30   2.21     2.16
2.37    2.35   2.38   2.27     2.22
2.45    2.41   2.44   2.28     2.24
2.38    2.35   2.38   2.24     2.20
2.40    2.36   2.39   2.23     2.19
2.33    2.30   2.33   2.19     2.15
2.41    2.37   2.40   2.23     2.18
2.37    2.34   2.36   2.20     2.16
2.25    2.21   2.24   2.17     2.13
2.21    2.19   2.21   2.15     2.11
2.16    2.15   2.18   2.15     2.10
2.12    2.11   2.13   2.10     2.06
2.12    2.12   2.14   2.10     2.05
2.13    2.12   2.15   2.10     2.06
2.20    2.18   2.21   2.14     2.10
2.28    2.25   2.28   2.19     2.14
2.28    2.24   2.26   2.16     2.12
2.34    2.30   2.32   2.21     2.16
2.40    2.36   2.38   2.26     2.22
2.30    2.27   2.30   2.21     2.16
2.22    2.20   2.23   2.16     2.12
2.24    2.22   2.25   2.17     2.13
2.20    2.19   2.22   2.18     2.12
2.20    2.19   2.22   2.20     2.14
2.13    2.12   2.15   2.14     2.08
2.31    2.30   2.33   2.25     2.19
2.43    2.41   2.44   2.34     2.29
2.31    2.29   2.32   2.26     2.20
2.37    2.36   2.39   2.31     2.25
2.31    2.29   2.32   2.26     2.20
2.37    2.34   2.37   2.30     2.24
2.38    2.35   2.38   2.32     2.26
2.39    2.36   2.39   2.32     2.27
2.39    2.37   2.40   2.32     2.26
2.26    2.25   2.28   2.25     2.19
2.35    2.33   2.36   2.32     2.26
2.41    2.40   2.43   2.37     2.31
2.59    2.58   2.61   2.53     2.47
2.66    2.65   2.68   2.58     2.52
2.61    2.60   2.63   2.54     2.48
2.67    2.65   2.68   2.60     2.54
2.74    2.72   2.75   2.67     2.61
2.78    2.76   2.79   2.69     2.64
2.88    2.86   2.89   2.79     2.73
2.83    2.83   2.86   2.77     2.71
2.85    2.85   2.88   2.77     2.72
2.98    2.98   3.01   2.91     2.86
2.93    2.94   2.97   2.89     2.83
3.12    3.14   3.17   3.11     3.05
3.17    3.20   3.23   3.19     3.14
2.94    2.98   3.01   2.91     2.85
2.90    2.92   2.95   2.89     2.83
3.00    3.02   3.05   2.97     2.92
        2.92   2.95   2.89     2.83
        2.77   2.80   2.73     2.68
        2.74   2.77   2.68     2.62
        2.81   2.84   2.77     2.71
        2.93   2.96   2.93     2.87
        2.68   2.71   2.72     2.66
        2.60   2.63   2.63     2.58
        2.55   2.58   2.60     2.54
                      2.45     2.39
                      2.31     2.25
                      2.25     2.19
                      2.01     1.96
                      2.01     1.95
                      2.06     2.00
                      2.00     1.94
                      2.11     2.06
                      2.07     2.02




April   May    June   July   August
2.87
2.87
2.87
2.87
2.89   2.78
2.89   2.78
2.89   2.78
2.89   2.78
2.89   2.87   2.74
2.89   2.87   2.74
2.89   2.87   2.74
2.89   2.87   2.74
2.89   2.87     2.74
2.89   2.87     2.79   2.42
2.89   2.87     2.79   2.42
2.89   2.87     2.79   2.42
2.89   2.87     2.79   2.42




June   July   August

2.30   2.21     2.16
2.38   2.27     2.22
2.44   2.28     2.24
2.38   2.24     2.20
2.39   2.23     2.19
2.33   2.19     2.15
2.40   2.23     2.18
2.36   2.20     2.16
2.24   2.17     2.13
2.21   2.15     2.11
2.18   2.15     2.10
2.13   2.10     2.06
2.14   2.10     2.05
2.15   2.10     2.06
2.21   2.14     2.10
2.28   2.19     2.14
2.26   2.16     2.12
2.32   2.21     2.16
2.38   2.26     2.22
2.30   2.21     2.16
2.23   2.16     2.12
2.25   2.17     2.13
2.22   2.18     2.12
2.22   2.20     2.14
2.15   2.14     2.08
2.33   2.25     2.19
2.44   2.34     2.29
2.32   2.26     2.20
2.39   2.31     2.25
2.32   2.26     2.20
2.37   2.30     2.24
2.38   2.32     2.26
2.39   2.32     2.27
2.40   2.32     2.26
2.28   2.25     2.19
2.36   2.32     2.26
2.43   2.37     2.31
2.61   2.53     2.47
2.68    2.58   2.52
2.63    2.54   2.48
2.68    2.60   2.54
2.75    2.67   2.61
2.79    2.69   2.64
2.89    2.79   2.73
2.86    2.77   2.71
2.88    2.77   2.72
3.01    2.91   2.86
2.97    2.89   2.83
3.17    3.11   3.05
3.23    3.19   3.14
3.01    2.91   2.85
2.95    2.89   2.83
3.05    2.97   2.92
2.95    2.89   2.83
2.80    2.73   2.68
2.77    2.68   2.62
2.84    2.77   2.71
2.96    2.93   2.87
2.71    2.72   2.66
2.63    2.63   2.58
2.58    2.60   2.54
2.74    2.45   2.39
2.74    2.31   2.25
2.74    2.25   2.19
2.74    2.01   1.96
2.74    2.01   1.95
2.79    2.42   2.00
2.79    2.42   1.94
2.79    2.42   2.06
2.79    2.42   2.02




April   May    June   July   August

0.12    0.11   0.14   0.16     0.18
0.13    0.12   0.14   0.17     0.19
0.13    0.12   0.15   0.17     0.19
0.13    0.12   0.14   0.16     0.18
0.13    0.12   0.15   0.16     0.18
0.12    0.11   0.14   0.16     0.18
0.13    0.12   0.15   0.16     0.18
0.13    0.12   0.14   0.16     0.18
0.12    0.11   0.14   0.16     0.18
0.12    0.11   0.13   0.16     0.18
0.11    0.11   0.13   0.16     0.17
0.11    0.10   0.13   0.15     0.17
0.11   0.10   0.13   0.15   0.17
0.11   0.10   0.13   0.15   0.17
0.12   0.11   0.13   0.16   0.17
0.12   0.11   0.14   0.16   0.18
0.12   0.11   0.14   0.16   0.18
0.12   0.11   0.14   0.16   0.18
0.13   0.12   0.14   0.17   0.18
0.12   0.11   0.14   0.16   0.18
0.12   0.11   0.14   0.16   0.18
0.12   0.11   0.14   0.16   0.18
0.12   0.11   0.13   0.16   0.18
0.12   0.11   0.13   0.16   0.18
0.12   0.11   0.12   0.16   0.17
0.13   0.12   0.13   0.16   0.18
0.13   0.12   0.14   0.17   0.19
0.13   0.12   0.13   0.16   0.18
0.13   0.12   0.14   0.17   0.19
0.13   0.12   0.13   0.17   0.18
0.13   0.12   0.13   0.17   0.19
0.13   0.12   0.13   0.17   0.19
0.13   0.12   0.14   0.17   0.19
0.13   0.12   0.14   0.17   0.19
0.13   0.12   0.13   0.16   0.18
0.13   0.12   0.13   0.17   0.19
0.13   0.12   0.14   0.17   0.19
0.14   0.13   0.15   0.18   0.20
0.15   0.14   0.15   0.19   0.21
0.14   0.13   0.15   0.19   0.21
0.15   0.14   0.15   0.19   0.21
0.15   0.14   0.16   0.19   0.22
0.15   0.14   0.16   0.20   0.22
0.16   0.15   0.16   0.20   0.23
0.16   0.15   0.16   0.20   0.22
0.16   0.15   0.16   0.20   0.22
0.17   0.15   0.17   0.21   0.24
0.16   0.15   0.17   0.21   0.23
0.17   0.16   0.18   0.23   0.25
0.18   0.17   0.18   0.23   0.26
0.16   0.15   0.17   0.21   0.24
0.16   0.15   0.17   0.21   0.23
0.17   0.16   0.17   0.22   0.24
0.16   0.15   0.17   0.21   0.23
0.16   0.14   0.16   0.20   0.22
0.16   0.14   0.16   0.20   0.22
0.16   0.15   0.16   0.20   0.22
0.16   0.14   0.17   0.21   0.24
0.16   0.14   0.15   0.20   0.22
0.16   0.14   0.15   0.19   0.21
0.16   0.14   0.15   0.19   0.21
0.16   0.15   0.16   0.18   0.20
0.16   0.15   0.16   0.17   0.19
0.16   0.15   0.16   0.16   0.18
               0.16          0.15      0.16   0.15          0.16
               0.16          0.15      0.16   0.15          0.16
               0.16          0.15      0.16   0.18          0.17
               0.16          0.15      0.16   0.18          0.16
               0.16          0.15      0.16   0.18          0.17
               0.16          0.15      0.16   0.18          0.17




                          Futures                      WASDE
                        CCP rate                      CCP rate
                         forecast                     projection
s per bushel   Dollars per bushel 2/          Dollars per bushel 2/
                              0.14                          #N/A
                              0.06                          #N/A
                             -0.01                          0.22
                              0.06                          0.22
                              0.05                          0.22
                              0.12                          0.22
                              0.04                          0.22
                              0.08                          0.22
                              0.19                          0.22
                              0.23                          0.22
                              0.28                          0.22
                              0.32                          0.22
                              0.32                          0.22
                              0.32                          0.22
                              0.25                          0.22
                              0.17                          0.12
                              0.16                          0.12
                              0.10                          0.12
                              0.03                          0.12
                              0.14                          0.02
                              0.22                          0.02
                              0.20                          0.02
                              0.21                          0.02
                              0.20                          0.22
                              0.27                          0.22
                              0.11                          0.22
                              0.00                          0.22
                              0.11                          0.22
                              0.06                          0.22
                              0.11                          0.22
                              0.06                          0.22
                              0.03                          0.22
                              0.03                          0.12
                              0.03                          0.12
                              0.11                          0.12
                              0.05                          0.12
 0.01    0.12
-0.09    0.02
-0.13    0.02
-0.09    0.02
-0.11    0.02
-0.14   -0.13
-0.15   -0.13
-0.20   -0.13
-0.16   -0.13
-0.17   -0.13
-0.22   -0.13
-0.20   -0.13
-0.26   -0.13
-0.29   -0.23
-0.21   -0.23
-0.19   -0.23
-0.22   -0.23
-0.19   -0.23
-0.15   -0.18
-0.14   -0.18
-0.16   -0.18
-0.19   -0.18
-0.14   -0.18
-0.13   -0.18
-0.12   -0.18
-0.11   -0.18
-0.09   -0.18
-0.08   -0.11
-0.04   -0.11
-0.04   -0.11
-0.08   -0.11
-0.07   -0.08
-0.08   -0.08
-0.08   -0.08 End of Data
Change forecast
On this worksheet, users can change a marketing year forecast by using their own futures prices, monthly basis values,
and/or monthly marketing weights.
    How to change the most recent forecast for marketing year 2004/05 (table 1)
    How to change the forecast for marketing year 2003/04 (table 2)
  NOTE: The futures forecast is not an official USDA forecast.


How to change the most recent forecast for marketing year 2004/05 (table 1)

● Step # 1 enters the most recent Thursday's closing price from each trading contract into table 1, column B. These prices
provide a futures price for each month as found in column C.
  Different futures prices may be entered into column B by the user.

● Step # 2 calculates a monthly price forecast found in column E by adding a moving 5-year average basis found in column
D to the monthly futures price found in column C. Column F reflects, when available, actual monthly farm prices received
by U.S. producers.
   Different basis values may be entered into column D by the user.

● Step # 3 inserts an actual monthly price received by farmers into column F, if available. Initially, this is a mid-month
price but a month later becomes the full month price received.

● Step # 4 computes each month’s price weight, as found in column I, and is a product of columns G and H. Column G
reflects a composite forecast derived from farm prices received or futures prices. Column H reflects each month’s 5-year-
moving-average monthly marketing weight.
   Different marketing weights may be inserted into column H by the user.

● Step # 5 computes the season-average price received forecast, a summation of monthly price weights found in column I.

● Step # 6 calculates the counter-cyclical payment rate (target price less the effective price).


         Date of futures forecast:                  7-Apr-05
Table 1. Futures model forecast of U.S. corn producers' season-average price received and CCP rate, marketing year 2004/05
                                   Step # 1                                            Step # 2                          Step # 3                                              Step # 4
 (Col. A)             (Col. B)                    (Col. C)                   (Col. D)              (Col. E)              (Col. F)                    (Col. G)                  (Col. H)              (Col. I)
Marketing       Current futures Futures price based                         Basis (5-year U.S.    Monthly farm Actual monthly                   Composite monthly            Monthly marketing      Monthly price
year month     price by trading on nearby contract 3/                                 average) price forecast            farm price, if forecast actual/futures weights (5-year U.S.                        weight
1/                    contract 2/                                                                                          available 4/                                               average)
             -------------------------------------------------------------------Dollars per bushel--------------------------------------------------------------------------    Percent        Dollars per bushel
September                                                                  -0.24                             2.20                     2.20                        8.5            0.188
October                                                                    -0.22                             2.15                     2.15                    14.1               0.304
November                                                                   -0.20                             2.05                     2.05                    11.1               0.228
December                    0.00                                           -0.19                             2.04                     2.04                        7.4            0.152
January                                                                    -0.18                             2.12                     2.12                    14.8               0.314
February                                                                   -0.15                             1.95                     1.95                        6.3            0.122
March                       0.00                  2.06                     -0.18            1.88             2.03                     2.03                        7.1            0.143
April                                             2.06                     -0.16            1.90             0.00                     1.90                        5.7            0.109
May                         2.06                  2.14                     -0.17            1.97             0.00                     1.97                        5.0            0.098
June                                              2.14                     -0.14            2.00             0.00                     2.00                        5.6            0.111
July                        2.14                  2.21                     -0.17            2.04             0.00                     2.04                        6.9            0.141
August                                            2.21                     -0.18            2.03             0.00                  2.03                        7.4               0.151
September                   2.21                                                                                        Sum of weights =                     100.0

Forecast of season-average price received:

Step # 5 Futures model forecast of the season-average price received (weighted average) ($/bu.)         =                                                                            2.06

Forecast of counter cyclical payment rate:
Step # 6
              CCP rate ($/bu.)                    0.29         =          Target price ($/bu.)               2.63             -         Effective price ($/bu.)                      2.34

          Effective price ($/bu.)                 2.34         =          Direct payment rate          +      the larger of             [National average price or       National average]
                                                                                           0.28                                            received for mktg yr              loan rate
                                                                                                                                                              2.06                1.95



1/ The marketing year for corn is September-August.
2/ Contract months include December, March, May, July, and, September. Futures price quotation from the Chicago Board of Trade closing prices.
A value of zero implies futures prices are not available for that date.
3/ When the forecast month coincides with the month during which the contract expires, futures prices are obtained from the next nearby contract.
4/ A value of zero implies farm prices received are not available. The last price listed in this column represents the mid-month price, other prices reflect the full month price.




How to change the forecast for marketing year 2003/04 (table 2)
These forecasts are relevant from May 2003 through August 2004. However, the ability to change these forecasts remains in
the spreadsheet until May 2005, the beginning of the next forecast period.
● Step # 1 enters the most recent Thursday's closing price from each trading contract into table 2, column B. These prices
provide a futures price for each month as found in column C.
  Different futures prices many be entered into column B by the user.

● Step # 2 calculates a monthly price forecast found in column E by adding a moving 5-year average basis found in column
D to the monthly futures price found in column C. Column F reflects, when available, actual monthly farm prices received
by U.S. producers.
   Different basis values may be entered into column D by the user.

● Step # 3 inserts an actual monthly price received by farmers into column F, if available. Initially, this is a mid-month
price but a month later becomes the full month price received.

● Step # 4 computes each month’s price weight, as found in column I, and is a product of columns G and H. Column G
reflects a composite forecast derived from farm prices received or futures prices. Column H reflects each month’s 5-year-
moving-average monthly marketing weight.
   Different marketing weights may be entered into column H by the user.

● Step # 5 computes the season-average price received forecast, a summation of monthly price weights found in column I.

● Step # 6 calculates the counter-cyclical payment rate (target price less the effective price).



          Date of futures forecast:               26-Aug-04
Table 2. Futures model forecast of U.S. corn producers' season-average price received and CCP rate, marketing year 2003/04
                                Step # 1                                            Step # 2                          Step # 3                                              Step # 4
 (Col. A)          (Col. B)                    (Col. C)                   (Col. D)              (Col. E)              (Col. F)                    (Col. G)                  (Col. H)              (Col. I)
Marketing    Current futures Futures price based                         Basis (5-year U.S.    Monthly farm Actual monthly                   Composite monthly            Monthly marketing      Monthly price
year month  price by trading on nearby contract 3/                                 average) price forecast            farm price, if forecast actual/futures weights (5-year U.S.                        weight
1/                 contract 2/                                                                                          available 4/                                               average)
          -------------------------------------------------------------------Dollars per bushel--------------------------------------------------------------------------    Percent        Dollars per bushel
September                                                                              -0.30                                     2.20                            2.20                   8.6                0.190
October                                                                              -0.27                                  2.12                        2.12                       13.8                  0.292
November                                                                             -0.22                                  2.20                        2.20                       10.9                  0.239
December                     0.00                                                    -0.18                                  2.32                        2.32                         7.1                 0.166
January                                                                              -0.15                                  2.39                        2.39                       14.0                  0.335
February                                                                             -0.13                                  2.61                        2.61                         6.3                 0.165
March                        0.00                                                    -0.15                                  2.75                        2.75                         7.3                 0.200
April                                                                                -0.14                                  2.89                        2.89                         5.5                 0.160
May                          0.00                                                    -0.18                                  2.87                        2.87                         5.2                 0.149
June                                                                       -0.15                             2.79                     2.79                        5.7            0.158
July                      0.00                    2.25                     -0.18            2.07             2.42                     2.42                        7.3            0.177
August                                            2.25                     -0.24            2.02             0.00                  2.02                        8.3               0.167
September                 2.25                                                                                          Sum of weights =                     100.0

Forecast of season-average price received:

Step # 5 Futures model forecast of the season-average price received (weighted average) ($/bu.)         =                                                                            2.40

Forecast of counter cyclical payment rate:
Step # 6
             CCP rate ($/bu.)                    -0.08         =          Target price ($/bu.)               2.60             -         Effective price ($/bu.)                      2.68

         Effective price ($/bu.)                  2.68         =          Direct payment rate          +      the larger of             [National average price or       National average]
                                                                                           0.28                                            received for mktg yr              loan rate
                                                                                                                                                              2.40                1.98



1/ The marketing year for corn is September-August.
2/ Contract months include December, March, May, July, and September. Futures price quotation from the Chicago Board of Trade closing prices.
A value of zero implies futures prices are not available for that date.
3/ When the forecast month coincides with the month during which the contract expires, futures prices are obtained from the next nearby contract.
4/ A value of zero implies farm prices received are not available. The last price listed in this column represents the mid-month price, other prices reflect the full month price.
Definitions
This worksheet defines key terms associated with the futures forecast model.
   Basis
   Counter-cyclical payment rate
   Futures price
   Marketing weights
   Marketing year
   Season-average price received

● Basis. The basis computed for this analysis is the monthly U.S. average price received by producers (as
published by USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service; see the Data and Source section of the
Documentation worksheet for more information) less a monthly average of the nearby futures closing price
observed for a given month. For months when the contract expires, the next nearby contract is used instead of
the current nearby contract. For example, the September corn basis is the difference between the September
farm price received by U.S. corn producers and September’s average closing price of the nearby December
futures corn contract. In December, the basis is the difference between the December farm price received by
U.S. corn producers and December's average closing price of the March futures contract, which is the next
nearby contract for corn. In this model, a 5-year moving average of the basis is used to compute the forecast.
The 5-year average is updated annually.

● Counter-cyclical payment rate. The counter-cyclical payment (CCP) rate is equal to the target price less the
effective price. The effective price is equal to the direct payment rate plus the higher of the season-average
price received or the national average loan rate. For more information on counter- cyclical payments, see:
                      http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/FarmPolicy/CounterCyclicalPay.htm
The effective price, season-average price, and counter-cyclical payment rate are initially unknown, but the
values for the target price, national average loan rate, and direct payment are predetermined. Once the season-
average price received is derived, the effective price can be determined, as can the counter-cyclical payment
rate. For definitions of these terms, see:
                         http://www.ers.usda.gov/features/farmbill/2002glossary.htm
For more information on U.S. farm policy, see the ERS Farm and Commodity Policy briefing room:
                                 http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/FarmPolicy/
For more information on the 2002 Farm Act, see:
                   http://www.ers.usda.gov/Features/farmbill/titles/titleIcommodities.htm

● Futures price. The closing futures prices from the Chicago Board of Trade's (CBOT) contract for No. 2
yellow corn are used for this analysis. The price for the nearby contract is used except when the marketing year
month coincides with the month in which the contract expires. For example, the December contract prices are
used for the months of September, October, and November, while the March contract prices are used for the
months of December, January, and February, etc. See Table 3 on the Data worksheet for information on which
futures contracts cover which months. For information on how to purchase corn futures data from the CBOT,
see:
                                        http://cbotdataexchange.if5.com/
● Marketing weights. A marketing weight represents the proportion of the marketing year’s crop that is
marketed in a given month. For example, in a given marketing year, 25 percent of the crop may be sold in
October. The marketing weight for that month for that marketing year would be 0.25. Marketing weights are
used to construct a weighted season-average price. In this model, a 5-year moving average of these weights is
used to compute the forecast. The 5-year average is updated annually.

● Marketing year. For field crops, the 12-month period starting with the month when the harvest of a specific
crop typically begins. For corn, the marketing year runs from September to August.

● Season-average price received. The monthly or season farm price received is determined by USDA's
National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Through sampling, NASS collects data on sales from
producers to first buyers. The price is determined by dividing sales by quantity sold. This price represents all
grades and qualities. These prices are reported both monthly and annually.
Documentation
This worksheet provides:
    Brief description of the futures forecast model
    Data and sources
    Forecast procedures

The futures price is used as a predictor of the season-average U.S. farm price. Futures prices reflect both expected supply
and use and, thus, can be used to forecast short-run farm prices.

Brief description of the futures forecast model
● The futures forecast model consists of several components: futures prices, farm prices received, basis values (farm price
received less the futures price), and marketing weights. For more information on basis, futures prices, and marketing
weights, see the Definitions worksheet.

● A season-average price forecast is derived from a summation of weighted monthly farm price forecasts for the marketing
year. For more information on season-average price, see the Definitions worksheet.

● The monthly forecasts are derived from the nearby futures contract traded throughout the marketing year. For more
information on futures prices, see the Definitions worksheet.

● The monthly futures price is adjusted by a basis to compute the monthly farm price forecast, which is replaced with the
actual monthly price received by farmers as it becomes available from USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. For
more information on basis, see the Definitions worksheet.

● Monthly marketing weights are used to weight each month's price. For more information on marketing weights, see the
Definitions worksheet.

Data and sources
The futures forecast model requires the following data:
● Weekly and monthly futures prices of the nearby contract by marketing year. Daily closing prices by contract for corn
are obtained from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) for marketing years 1975 to the present. For information on how to
purchase data for corn from the CBOT, see:
                                              http://cbotdataexchange.if5.com/

● Monthly and annual farm prices received by marketing year. Monthly farm prices received for corn are obtained from
Agricultural Prices , published by USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. For the publication, see:
                                 http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/nassr/price/pap-bb/
                                 http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/nassr/price/zap-bb/

● Monthly basis values by marketing year. Monthly farm prices received less monthly average futures closing prices from
the nearby futures contract.

● Monthly marketing weights by marketing year. Marketing weights by month are derived from data published in USDA's
December Crop Production for marketing years 1975-77 and the annual issue of Agricultural Prices thereafter. For the
most recent year's monthly marketing weights see Agricultural Prices :
                               http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/nassr/price/pap-bb/
● Monthly season-average price received projections from WASDE. Price projections from USDA are from World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), published by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board. For the
publication, see:
                             http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/reports/waobr/wasde-bb/

● Policy parameters (target prices, national average loan rates, and direct payment rates). Policy parameters for the 2002
Farm Act are taken from the legislation. For more information on the 2002 Act, see:
                                         http://www.ers.usda.gov/features/farmbill/

Forecast procedures
The forecast period for each marketing year covers 16 months, beginning in May, four months before the start of the year,
and concludes with August, the last month of the marketing year. The forecast period is similar for both the futures model
forecast and USDA’s WASDE projections. Model forecasts are made weekly, relying on Thursday's closing futures price,
but are reported once a month.

The following steps are used to compute the model forecast:

● Step # 1 enters the most recent Thursday's closing price from each trading contract into table 1, column B. These prices
provide a futures price for each month as found in column C.

● Step # 2 calculates a monthly price forecast found in column E by adding a moving 5-year average basis found in
column D to the monthly futures price found in column C. Column F reflects, when available, actual monthly farm prices
received by U.S. producers.

● Step # 3 inserts an actual monthly price received by farmers into column F, if available. Initially, this is a mid-month
price but a month later becomes the full month price received.

● Step # 4 computes each month’s price weight, as found in column I, and is a product of columns G and H. Column G
reflects a composite forecast derived from farm prices received or futures prices. Column H reflects each month’s 5-year-
moving-average monthly marketing weight.

● Step # 5 computes the season-average price received forecast, a summation of monthly price weights found in column I.

● Step # 6 calculates the counter-cyclical payment rate (target price less the effective price).

Note: Example table 1 is for illustration purposes only.

         Date of futures forecast: November 20, 2003
Example table 1. Futures model forecast of U.S. corn producers' season-average price received and CCP rate, marketing year 2003/04
                              Step # 1                                           Step # 2                Step # 3                                                               Step # 4
 (Col. A)           (Col. B)            (Col. C)                        (Col. D)           (Col. E)       (Col. F)             (Col. G)                                         (Col. H)            (Col. I)
Marketing      Current futures Futures price based                     Basis (5-year U.S. Monthly farm Actual monthly      Composite monthly                                Monthly marketing       Monthly price
year month     price by trading on nearby contract 3/                               avg.) price forecast farm price, if forecast actual/futures                            weights (5-year U.S.            weight
1/                  contract 2/                                                                            available 4/                                                                   avg.)

             -------------------------------------------------------------------Dollars per bushel--------------------------------------------------------------------------           Percent Dollars per bushel
September                                                    2.35                        -0.30              2.05                  2.20                           2.20                      8.6              0.190
October                                                      2.35                        -0.27              2.09                  2.02                           2.02                     13.8              0.278
November                                                     2.35                        -0.22              2.13                                                 2.13                     10.9              0.232
December                  2.35                 2.41                  -0.18            2.23                                     2.23                      7.1         0.160
January                                        2.41                  -0.15            2.26                                     2.26                     14.0         0.317
February                                       2.41                  -0.13            2.28                                     2.28                      6.3         0.145
March                     2.41                 2.45                  -0.15            2.29                                     2.29                      7.3         0.166
April                                          2.45                  -0.14            2.31                                     2.31                      5.5         0.128
May                       2.45                 2.47                  -0.18            2.29                                     2.29                      5.2         0.119
June                                           2.47                  -0.15            2.32                                     2.32                      5.7         0.132
July                      2.47                 2.44                  -0.18            2.26                                     2.26                      7.3         0.165
August                                         2.44                  -0.24            2.20                                     2.20                      8.3         0.182
September                 2.44                                                                                      Sum of weights =                   100.0

Forecast of season-average price received:

Step # 5 Futures model forecast of the season-average price received (weighted average) ($/bu.)       =                                                               2.21

Forecast of counter cyclical payment rate:
Step # 6
            CCP rate ($/bu.)                  0.11         =         Target price ($/bu.)                 2.60            -       Effective price ($/bu.)             2.49

        Effective price ($/bu.)                2.49        =         Direct payment rate          +       the larger of          [National average price or    National average]
                                                                                     0.28                                           received for mktg yr           loan rate
                                                                                                                                                      2.21              1.98

1/ The marketing year for corn is September-August.
2/ Contract months include December, March, May, July, and September. Futures price quotation from the Chicago Board of Trade, November 20, 2003 closing price.
3/ When the forecast month coincides with the month during which the contract expires, futures prices are obtained from the next nearby contract.
4/ September represents a full month price received, but October represents a mid-month price received.
Data
This worksheet provides current and historical data needed to produce the marketing year forecasts:

● Weekly and monthly futures prices of the nearby contract by marketing year
   Table 1. Weekly (Thursday) closing price of the nearby corn futures contract, marketing year 2004/05
   Table 2. Weekly (Thursday) closing price of the nearby corn futures contract, marketing year 2003/04
   Table 3. Average monthly closing price for the nearby corn futures contract by marketing year month, marketin

● Monthly and annual farm prices received by marketing year
   Table 4. Observed monthly farm price received by week for U.S. corn producers, marketing year 2004/05 (from
   Table 5. Observed monthly farm price received by week for U.S. corn producers, marketing year 2003/04 (from
   Table 6. Monthly and annual price received by U.S. corn producers, marketing years 1975-2003

● Monthly basis values by marketing year
   Table 7. Average monthly basis (farm price received less futures) for U.S. corn, marketing years 1975-2003
   Table 8. 5-year average monthly basis (farm price received less futures), for U.S. corn, marketing years 1980-2

● Monthly marketing weights by marketing year
   Table 9. Monthly marketing weights for U.S. corn, marketing years 1975-2003
   Table10. 5-year average monthly marketing weights for U.S. corn, marketing years 1975-2003

● Monthly season-average price received projection from World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (
   Table 11. WASDE monthly projection of the U.S. farm price received for corn by forecast period, marketing y
   Table 12. WASDE monthly projection of the U.S. farm price received for corn by forecast period, marketing y

● Policy parameters--target price, national average loan rate, and direct payment rate by marketing year
    Table 13. Policy parameters--target price, national average loan rate, and direct payment rate, marketing years


Table 1. Weekly (Thursday) closing price of the nearby corn futures contract, marketing year 2004/05
Calendar     Forecast period 1/                December         March          May        July
year
                                                                Dollars per bushel
      2004           6-May-04                       3.04         3.08          3.10       3.10
                    13-May-04                       2.90         2.94          2.98       2.97
                    20-May-04                       2.83         2.87          2.91       2.90
                    27-May-04                       2.91         2.96          3.00       2.99
                      3-Jun-04                      3.10         3.14          3.17       3.16
                    10-Jun-04                       2.91         2.95          3.00       2.99
                    17-Jun-04                       2.83         2.88          2.93       2.93
                    24-Jun-04                       2.83         2.88          2.93       2.94
                       1-Jul-04                     2.67         2.74          2.80       2.83
                       8-Jul-04                     2.54         2.61          2.67       2.70
                     15-Jul-04                      2.50         2.58          2.63       2.67
                     22-Jul-04                      2.28         2.36          2.42       2.47
                     29-Jul-04                      2.27         2.36          2.42       2.47
                     5-Aug-04                       2.35         2.44          2.50       2.54
       12-Aug-04     2.29   2.38   2.44   2.49
       19-Aug-04     2.40   2.49   2.54   2.59
       26-Aug-04     2.34   2.42   2.48   2.52
         2-Sep-04    2.36   2.45   2.50   2.55
         9-Sep-04    2.27   2.35   2.42   2.47
       16-Sep-04     2.16   2.26   2.33   2.37
       23-Sep-04     2.08   2.18   2.25   2.31
       30-Sep-04     2.06   2.16   2.24   2.30
         7-Oct-04    2.06   2.17   2.24   2.30
        14-Oct-04    2.04   2.15   2.22   2.29
        21-Oct-04    2.04   2.15   2.23   2.29
        28-Oct-04    2.06   2.17   2.25   2.31
         4-Nov-04    1.98   2.10   2.17   2.24
       11-Nov-04     1.97   2.09   2.16   2.23
       18-Nov-04     2.04   2.15   2.22   2.29
       25-Nov-04     1.98   2.08   2.16   2.23
         2-Dec-04           2.04   2.12   2.19
         9-Dec-04           2.03   2.11   2.18
       16-Dec-04            2.04   2.11   2.19
       23-Dec-04            2.07   2.15   2.22
       30-Dec-04            2.05   2.13   2.21
2005     6-Jan-05           2.09   2.16   2.22
       13-Jan-05            2.00   2.08   2.15
       20-Jan-05            1.98   2.05   2.12
       27-Jan-05            1.96   2.03   2.11
         3-Feb-05           1.95   2.03   2.11
       10-Feb-05            1.98   2.06   2.13
       17-Feb-05            1.99   2.07   2.14
       24-Feb-05            2.06   2.14   2.21
         3-Mar-05                  2.18   2.25
       10-Mar-05                   2.20   2.27
       17-Mar-05                   2.24   2.31
       24-Mar-05                   2.11   2.17
       31-Mar-05                   2.13   2.20
         7-Apr-05                  2.06   2.14
        14-Apr-05
        21-Apr-05
        28-Apr-05
        5-May-05
       12-May-05
       19-May-05
       26-May-05
         2-Jun-05
         9-Jun-05
       16-Jun-05
       23-Jun-05
       30-Jun-05
          7-Jul-05
         14-Jul-05
         21-Jul-05
         28-Jul-05
         4-Aug-05
                       11-Aug-05
                       18-Aug-05
                       25-Aug-05

1/ Weekly forecast reflects futures closing price on that date.


Table 2. Weekly (Thursday) closing price of the nearby corn futures contract, marketing year 2003/04
Calendar     Forecast period 1/                December         March          May        July
year
                                                                Dollars per bushel
      2003           1-May-03                       2.33         2.41          2.45       2.47
                     8-May-03                       2.42         2.48          2.52       2.54
                    15-May-03                       2.52         2.56          2.59       2.60
                    22-May-03                       2.43         2.49          2.52       2.54
                    29-May-03                       2.44         2.50          2.54       2.56
                      5-Jun-03                      2.37         2.43          2.47       2.49
                    12-Jun-03                       2.46         2.52          2.55       2.57
                    19-Jun-03                       2.42         2.47          2.52       2.53
                    26-Jun-03                       2.28         2.34          2.39       2.41
                       3-Jul-03                     2.22         2.30          2.36       2.38
                      10-Jul-03                     2.17         2.25          2.31       2.35
                      17-Jul-03                     2.12         2.20          2.26       2.30
                      24-Jul-03                     2.12         2.21          2.27       2.31
                      31-Jul-03                     2.12         2.21          2.27       2.31
                      7-Aug-03                      2.20         2.29          2.34       2.37
                    14-Aug-03                       2.30         2.37          2.42       2.44
                    21-Aug-03                       2.33         2.39          2.42       2.43
                    28-Aug-03                       2.39         2.45          2.48       2.49
                      4-Sep-03                      2.47         2.52          2.54       2.55
                    11-Sep-03                       2.33         2.41          2.44       2.47
                    18-Sep-03                       2.24         2.31          2.36       2.40
                    25-Sep-03                       2.26         2.34          2.39       2.42
                      2-Oct-03                      2.20         2.29          2.34       2.37
                      9-Oct-03                      2.22         2.29          2.34       2.37
                     16-Oct-03                      2.15         2.22          2.27       2.30
                     23-Oct-03                      2.35         2.41          2.45       2.48
                     30-Oct-03                      2.48         2.53          2.57       2.59
                      6-Nov-03                      2.34         2.40          2.44       2.47
                    13-Nov-03                       2.41         2.47          2.51       2.54
                    20-Nov-03                       2.35         2.41          2.45       2.47
                    27-Nov-03                       2.43         2.47          2.50       2.52
                      4-Dec-03                                   2.49          2.52       2.53
                    11-Dec-03                                    2.51          2.52       2.54
                    18-Dec-03                                    2.50          2.53       2.55
                    25-Dec-03                                    2.36          2.40       2.43
      2004            1-Jan-04                                   2.46          2.49       2.51
                      8-Jan-04                                   2.52          2.55       2.58
                    15-Jan-04                                    2.69          2.73       2.76
                    22-Jan-04                                    2.76          2.80       2.83
                    29-Jan-04                                    2.70          2.74       2.78
                      5-Feb-04                                   2.75          2.80       2.83
                       12-Feb-04                                  2.81       2.88        2.90
                       19-Feb-04                                  2.85       2.91        2.94
                       26-Feb-04                                  2.96       3.02        3.04
                         4-Mar-04                                            2.97        3.01
                       11-Mar-04                                             2.99        3.03
                       18-Mar-04                                             3.12        3.16
                       25-Mar-04                                             3.07        3.12
                         1-Apr-04                                            3.26        3.32
                         8-Apr-04                                            3.31        3.38
                        15-Apr-04                                            3.08        3.16
                        22-Apr-04                                            3.04        3.10
                        29-Apr-04                                            3.14        3.20
                        6-May-04                                                         3.10
                       13-May-04                                                         2.95
                       20-May-04                                                         2.92
                       27-May-04                                                         2.99
                         3-Jun-04                                                        3.11
                       10-Jun-04                                                         2.86
                       17-Jun-04                                                         2.78
                       24-Jun-04                                                         2.73
                          1-Jul-04
                          8-Jul-04
                        15-Jul-04
                        22-Jul-04
                        29-Jul-04
                         5-Aug-04
                       12-Aug-04
                       19-Aug-04
                       26-Aug-04

1/ Weekly forecast reflects futures closing price on that date.


Table 3. Average monthly closing price for the nearby corn futures contract by marketing year month, marketing year
                                                                                   Nearby futures contracts
                              December                                             March
Marketing                                                                          Marketing year month
year              September                      October    November    December       January
                                                                                      Dollars per bushel
1975-76                  3.02                       2.91         2.69         2.68        2.68
1976-77                  2.83                       2.66         2.43         2.52        2.59
1977-78                  2.01                       2.09         2.22         2.25        2.24
1978-79                  2.22                       2.31         2.29         2.33        2.32
1979-80                  2.78                       2.78         2.68         2.87        2.74
1980-81                  3.54                       3.61         3.81         3.80        3.72
1981-82                  2.95                       2.91         2.77         2.72        2.73
1982-83                  2.24                       2.20         2.33         2.42        2.55
1983-84                  3.58                       3.48         3.49         3.36        3.30
1984-85                  2.86                       2.78         2.73         2.79        2.71
1985-86                  2.20                       2.23         2.38         2.47        2.47
1986-87                  1.67                       1.69         1.70         1.67        1.58
1987-88                  1.75                       1.83         1.83         1.90        1.96
1988-89                   2.93                    2.89         2.69         2.77       2.78
1989-90                   2.32                    2.39         2.38         2.40       2.44
1990-91                   2.30                    2.30         2.26         2.36       2.37
1991-92                   2.52                    2.51         2.43         2.51       2.58
1992-93                   2.18                    2.09         2.12         2.20       2.18
1993-94                   2.40                    2.49         2.74         2.70       3.02
1994-95                   2.20                    2.16         2.09         2.29       2.32
1995-96                   3.03                    3.23         3.28         3.50       3.62
1996-97                   3.20                    2.84         2.68         2.64       2.68
1997-98                   2.64                    2.81         2.76         2.73       2.71
1998-99                   2.08                    2.19         2.19         2.21       2.17
1999-00                   2.15                    2.01         1.96         2.02       2.16
2000-01                   1.93                    2.04         2.11         2.22       2.19
2001-02                   2.22                    2.08         2.05         2.15       2.10
2002-03                   2.72                    2.52         2.43         2.36       2.36
2003-04                   2.31                    2.26         2.37         2.48       2.67
2004-05                   2.18                    2.05         1.99         2.05       2.00




Table 4. Observed monthly farm price received by week for U.S. corn producers, marketing year 2004/05 (from month
Calendar            Forecast            Release date of
year                period 1/      Agricultural Prices 2/              September    October

      2004           6-May-04
                    13-May-04
                    20-May-04
                    27-May-04
                      3-Jun-04
                    10-Jun-04
                    17-Jun-04
                    24-Jun-04
                       1-Jul-04
                       8-Jul-04
                      15-Jul-04
                      22-Jul-04
                      29-Jul-04
                      5-Aug-04
                    12-Aug-04
                    19-Aug-04
                    26-Aug-04
                      2-Sep-04
                      9-Sep-04
                    16-Sep-04
                    23-Sep-04
                    30-Sep-04       September 29, 2004                      2.13
                      7-Oct-04                                              2.13
                     14-Oct-04                                              2.13
                        21-Oct-04                                                     2.13
                        28-Oct-04                                                     2.13
                         4-Nov-04           October 29, 2004                          2.20          1.89
                       11-Nov-04                                                      2.20          1.89
                       18-Nov-04                                                      2.20          1.89
                       25-Nov-04                                                      2.20          1.89
                         2-Dec-04         November 30, 2004                           2.20          2.15
                         9-Dec-04                                                     2.20          2.15
                       16-Dec-04                                                      2.20          2.15
                       23-Dec-04                                                      2.20          2.15
                       30-Dec-04          December 29, 2004                           2.20          2.15
      2005               6-Jan-05                                                     2.20          2.15
                       13-Jan-05                                                      2.20          2.15
                       20-Jan-05                                                      2.20          2.15
                       27-Jan-05                                                      2.20          2.15
                         3-Feb-05           January 31, 2005                          2.20          2.15
                       10-Feb-05                                                      2.20          2.15
                       17-Feb-05                                                      2.20          2.15
                       24-Feb-05                                                      2.20          2.15
                         3-Mar-05          February 28, 2005                          2.20          2.15
                       10-Mar-05                                                      2.20          2.15
                       17-Mar-05                                                      2.20          2.15
                       24-Mar-05                                                      2.20          2.15
                       31-Mar-05              March 30, 2005                          2.20          2.15
                         7-Apr-05                                                     2.20          2.15
                        14-Apr-05
                        21-Apr-05
                        28-Apr-05
                        5-May-05
                       12-May-05
                       19-May-05
                       26-May-05
                         2-Jun-05
                         9-Jun-05
                       16-Jun-05
                       23-Jun-05
                       30-Jun-05
                          7-Jul-05
                         14-Jul-05
                         21-Jul-05
                         28-Jul-05
                         4-Aug-05
                       11-Aug-05
                       18-Aug-05
                       25-Aug-05

1/ Weekly forecast reflects available farm prices received on that date.
2/ Agricultural Prices for any given month (e.g., September) lists prices received in that month (September). The last price liste


Table 5. Observed monthly farm price received by week for U.S. corn producers, marketing year 2003/04 (from month
Calendar            Forecast            Release date of
year            period 1/   Agricultural Prices 2/   September   October

       2003    1-May-03
               8-May-03
              15-May-03
              22-May-03
              29-May-03
                5-Jun-03
              12-Jun-03
              19-Jun-03
              26-Jun-03
                 3-Jul-03
                10-Jul-03
                17-Jul-03
                24-Jul-03
                31-Jul-03
                7-Aug-03
              14-Aug-03
              21-Aug-03
              28-Aug-03
                4-Sep-03
              11-Sep-03
              18-Sep-03
              25-Sep-03
                2-Oct-03    September 30, 2003            2.13
                9-Oct-03                                  2.13
               16-Oct-03                                  2.13
               23-Oct-03                                  2.13
               30-Oct-03                                  2.13
                6-Nov-03       October 31, 2003           2.20      2.02
              13-Nov-03                                   2.20      2.02
              20-Nov-03                                   2.20      2.02
              27-Nov-03                                   2.20      2.02
                4-Dec-03     November 28, 2003            2.20      2.12
              11-Dec-03                                   2.20      2.12
              18-Dec-03                                   2.20      2.12
              25-Dec-03                                   2.20      2.12
       2004     1-Jan-04     December 31, 2003            2.20      2.12
                8-Jan-04                                  2.20      2.12
              15-Jan-04                                   2.20      2.12
              22-Jan-04                                   2.20      2.12
              29-Jan-04                                   2.20      2.12
                5-Feb-04       January 30, 2004           2.20      2.12
              12-Feb-04                                   2.20      2.12
              19-Feb-04                                   2.20      2.12
              26-Feb-04                                   2.20      2.12
                4-Mar-04      February 27, 2004           2.20      2.12
              11-Mar-04                                   2.20      2.12
              18-Mar-04                                   2.20      2.12
              25-Mar-04                                   2.20      2.12
                1-Apr-04         March 30, 2004           2.20      2.12
                8-Apr-04                                  2.20      2.12
                        15-Apr-04                                                     2.20          2.12
                        22-Apr-04                                                     2.20          2.12
                        29-Apr-04                                                     2.20          2.12
                        6-May-04                April 30, 2004                        2.20          2.12
                       13-May-04                                                      2.20          2.12
                       20-May-04                                                      2.20          2.12
                       27-May-04                                                      2.20          2.12
                         3-Jun-04               May 28, 2004                          2.20          2.12
                       10-Jun-04                                                      2.20          2.12
                       17-Jun-04                                                      2.20          2.12
                       24-Jun-04                                                      2.20          2.12
                          1-Jul-04             June 29, 2004                          2.20          2.12
                          8-Jul-04                                                    2.20          2.12
                        15-Jul-04                                                     2.20          2.12
                        22-Jul-04                                                     2.20          2.12
                        29-Jul-04                                                     2.20          2.12
                         5-Aug-04               July 30, 2004                         2.20          2.12
                       12-Aug-04                                                      2.20          2.12
                       19-Aug-04                                                      2.20          2.12
                       26-Aug-04                                                      2.20          2.12

1/ Weekly forecast reflects available farm prices received on that date.
2/ Agricultural Prices for any given month (e.g., September) lists prices received in that month (September). The last price liste


Table 6. Monthly and annual price received by U.S. corn producers, marketing years 1975-2003
Marketing                                                                                  Marketing year month
year               September                    October    November    December      January
                                                                                             Dollars per bushel
1975-76                  2.76                       2.62        2.33         2.37        2.44
1976-77                  2.60                       2.33        2.02         2.24        2.34
1977-78                  1.60                       1.67        1.88         1.97        2.00
1978-79                  1.98                       1.97        2.02         2.09        2.11
1979-80                  2.51                       2.41        2.27         2.38        2.45
1980-81                  3.01                       2.99        3.10         3.19        3.19
1981-82                  2.55                       2.45        2.34         2.39        2.54
1982-83                  2.15                       1.98        2.13         2.26        2.36
1983-84                  3.32                       3.15        3.17         3.15        3.15
1984-85                  2.90                       2.65        2.55         2.56        2.64
1985-86                  2.29                       2.11        2.21         2.29        2.33
1986-87                  1.45                       1.40        1.47         1.50        1.48
1987-88                  1.49                       1.55        1.61         1.72        1.77
1988-89                  2.60                       2.58        2.51         2.53        2.60
1989-90                  2.29                       2.22        2.24         2.27        2.31
1990-91                  2.32                       2.19        2.16         2.22        2.27
1991-92                  2.33                       2.31        2.29         2.33        2.40
1992-93                  2.16                       2.05        1.98         1.97        2.03
1993-94                  2.21                       2.28        2.45         2.67        2.70
1994-95                  2.19                       2.06        1.99         2.13        2.19
1995-96                  2.69                       2.79        2.87         3.07        3.09
1996-97                  3.56                       2.88        2.66         2.63        2.69
1997-98                  2.52                       2.54        2.51         2.52        2.56
1998-99                   1.84                      1.91         1.93         2.00        2.06
1999-00                   1.75                      1.69         1.70         1.82        1.91
2000-01                   1.61                      1.74         1.86         1.97        1.98
2001-02                   1.91                      1.84         1.85         1.98        1.97
2002-03                   2.47                      2.34         2.28         2.32        2.33
2003-04                   2.20                      2.12         2.20         2.31        2.39
2004-05                   2.20                      2.15         2.05         2.04        2.12




Table 7. Average monthly basis (farm price received less futures) for U.S. corn, marketing years 1975-2003
Marketing                                                                            Marketing year month
year              September                     October     November      December      January
                                                                                        Dollars per bushel
1975-76                 -0.26                      -0.29        -0.36          -0.31       -0.24
1976-77                 -0.23                      -0.33        -0.41          -0.28       -0.25
1977-78                 -0.41                      -0.42        -0.34          -0.28       -0.24
1978-79                 -0.24                      -0.34        -0.27          -0.24       -0.21
1979-80                 -0.24                      -0.37        -0.41          -0.49       -0.29
1980-81                 -0.53                      -0.62        -0.71          -0.61       -0.53
1981-82                 -0.40                      -0.46        -0.43          -0.33       -0.19
1982-83                 -0.09                      -0.22        -0.20          -0.16       -0.19
1983-84                 -0.26                      -0.33        -0.32          -0.21       -0.15
1984-85                  0.04                      -0.13        -0.18          -0.23       -0.07
1985-86                  0.09                      -0.12        -0.17          -0.18       -0.14
1986-87                 -0.22                      -0.29        -0.23          -0.17       -0.10
1987-88                 -0.26                      -0.28        -0.22          -0.18       -0.19
1988-89                 -0.33                      -0.31        -0.18          -0.24       -0.18
1989-90                 -0.03                      -0.17        -0.14          -0.13       -0.13
1990-91                  0.02                      -0.11        -0.10          -0.14       -0.10
1991-92                 -0.19                      -0.20        -0.14          -0.18       -0.18
1992-93                 -0.02                      -0.04        -0.14          -0.23       -0.15
1993-94                 -0.19                      -0.21        -0.29          -0.03       -0.32
1994-95                 -0.01                      -0.10        -0.10          -0.16       -0.13
1995-96                 -0.34                      -0.44        -0.41          -0.43       -0.53
1996-97                  0.36                       0.04        -0.02          -0.01        0.01
1997-98                 -0.12                      -0.27        -0.25          -0.21       -0.15
1998-99                 -0.24                      -0.28        -0.26          -0.21       -0.11
1999-00                 -0.40                      -0.32        -0.26          -0.20       -0.25
2000-01                 -0.32                      -0.30        -0.25          -0.25       -0.21
2001-02                 -0.31                      -0.24        -0.20          -0.17       -0.13
2002-03                 -0.25                      -0.18        -0.15          -0.04       -0.03
2003-04                 -0.11                      -0.14        -0.17          -0.17       -0.28
2004-05                  0.02                       0.10          0.06         -0.01        0.12
Table 8. 5-year average monthly basis (farm price received less futures), for U.S. corn, marketing years 1980-2003
Marketing                                                                                               Marketing year m
year        5-year average                   September        October     November December
                                                                                                          Dollars per bu
1980-81     1975-79                                 -0.28        -0.35         -0.36        -0.32
1981-82     1976-80                                 -0.33        -0.41         -0.43        -0.38
1982-83     1977-81                                 -0.36        -0.44         -0.43        -0.39
1983-84     1978-82                                 -0.30        -0.40         -0.41        -0.37
1984-85     1979-83                                 -0.30        -0.40         -0.42        -0.36
1985-86     1980-84                                 -0.25        -0.35         -0.37        -0.31
1986-87     1981-85                                 -0.12        -0.25         -0.26        -0.22
1987-88     1982-86                                 -0.09        -0.22         -0.22        -0.19
1988-89     1983-87                                 -0.12        -0.23         -0.23        -0.19
1989-90     1984-88                                 -0.14        -0.23         -0.20        -0.20
1990-91     1985-89                                 -0.15        -0.23         -0.19        -0.18
1991-92     1986-90                                 -0.16        -0.23         -0.18        -0.17
1992-93     1987-91                                 -0.16        -0.21         -0.16        -0.17
1993-94     1988-92                                 -0.11        -0.16         -0.14        -0.18
1994-95     1989-93                                 -0.08        -0.14         -0.16        -0.14
1995-96     1990-94                                 -0.08        -0.13         -0.15        -0.15
1996-97     1991-95                                 -0.15        -0.20         -0.22        -0.21
1997-98     1992-96                                 -0.04        -0.15         -0.19        -0.17
1998-99     1993-97                                 -0.06        -0.20         -0.21        -0.17
1999-00     1994-98                                 -0.07        -0.21         -0.21        -0.21
2000-01     1995-99                                 -0.15        -0.25         -0.24        -0.21
2001-02     1996-00                                 -0.14        -0.23         -0.21        -0.18
2002-03     1997-01                                 -0.28        -0.28         -0.24        -0.21
2003-04     1998-02                                 -0.30        -0.27         -0.22        -0.18
2004-05     1999-03                                 -0.24        -0.22         -0.20        -0.19




Table 9. Monthly marketing weights for U.S. corn, marketing years 1975-2003 1/
Marketing                                                                          Marketing year month
year              September                     October    November     December       January
                                                                             Share of total for the marketing year
1975-76                  0.02                      0.15         0.13         0.09          0.12
1976-77                  0.02                      0.13         0.14         0.10          0.12
1977-78                  0.02                      0.12         0.15         0.09          0.11
1978-79                  0.02                      0.12         0.12         0.07          0.12
1979-80                  0.02                      0.10         0.14         0.09          0.10
1980-81                  0.02                      0.19         0.12         0.08          0.15
1981-82                  0.02                      0.11         0.15         0.09          0.12
1982-83                  0.02                      0.12         0.13         0.09          0.14
1983-84                  0.02                      0.14         0.12         0.09          0.15
1984-85                  0.03                      0.13         0.17         0.08          0.12
1985-86                     0.03                       0.13          0.17          0.13         0.13
1986-87                     0.07                       0.10          0.11          0.08         0.11
1987-88                     0.09                       0.13          0.08          0.05         0.11
1988-89                     0.11                       0.14          0.07          0.08         0.12
1989-90                     0.06                       0.16          0.12          0.07         0.15
1990-91                     0.05                       0.12          0.14          0.07         0.14
1991-92                     0.11                       0.17          0.08          0.08         0.15
1992-93                     0.06                       0.09          0.14          0.13         0.13
1993-94                     0.08                       0.14          0.16          0.10         0.15
1994-95                     0.05                       0.11          0.12          0.09         0.16
1995-96                     0.08                       0.17          0.13          0.08         0.17
1996-97                     0.04                       0.11          0.13          0.08         0.15
1997-98                     0.06                       0.14          0.11          0.08         0.15
1998-99                     0.08                       0.14          0.10          0.07         0.13
1999-00                     0.10                       0.14          0.08          0.07         0.17
2000-01                     0.11                       0.16          0.09          0.07         0.15
2001-02                     0.08                       0.11          0.13          0.07         0.13
2002-03                     0.07                       0.14          0.14          0.08         0.13
2003-04                     0.07                       0.16          0.12          0.09         0.17




1/ Marketing weights for marketing year 1975 through 1985 were converted into 12 month weights. Initially, they were reported
the marketing year and recomputed each month's percentage of the total.



Table 10. 5-year average monthly marketing weights for U.S. corn, marketing years 1975-2003
Marketing                                                                                                   Marketing year m
year        5-year average                  September        October   November December
                                                                                                              Dollars per bu
1980-81     1975-79                                    0.02          0.12          0.14         0.09
1981-82     1976-80                                    0.02          0.13          0.13         0.08
1982-83     1977-81                                    0.02          0.13          0.14         0.08
1983-84     1978-82                                    0.02          0.13          0.13         0.08
1984-85     1979-83                                    0.02          0.13          0.13         0.09
1985-86     1980-84                                    0.02          0.14          0.14         0.08
1986-87     1981-85                                    0.02          0.13          0.15         0.10
1987-88     1982-86                                    0.03          0.12          0.14         0.09
1988-89     1983-87                                    0.05          0.13          0.13         0.08
1989-90     1984-88                                    0.06          0.13          0.12         0.08
1990-91     1985-89                                    0.07          0.13          0.11         0.08
1991-92     1986-90                                    0.07          0.13          0.10         0.07
1992-93     1987-91                                    0.08          0.15          0.10         0.07
1993-94     1988-92                                    0.08          0.14          0.11         0.08
1994-95     1989-93                                    0.07          0.14          0.13         0.09
1995-96     1990-94                                    0.07          0.13          0.13         0.09
1996-97     1991-95                                    0.08          0.14          0.13         0.09
1997-98     1992-96                                    0.06          0.13          0.14         0.09
1998-99     1993-97                                    0.06          0.14          0.13         0.08
1999-00    1994-98                                  0.06         0.14         0.12    0.08
2000-01    1995-99                                  0.07         0.14         0.11    0.08
2001-02    1996-00                                  0.08         0.14         0.10    0.07
2002-03    1997-01                                  0.08         0.14         0.10    0.07
2003-04    1998-02                                  0.09         0.14         0.11    0.07
2004-05    1999-03                                  0.09         0.14         0.11    0.07




Table 11. WASDE monthly projection of the U.S. farm price received for corn by
forecast period, marketing year 2004/05
Calendar        Weekly forecast
year                      period       WASDE projection      WASDE release date
                                        Dollars per bushel
      2004            6-May-04
                     13-May-04                        2.75              12-May-04
                     20-May-04                        2.75
                     27-May-04                        2.75
                       3-Jun-04                       2.75
                     10-Jun-04                        2.75              10-Jun-04
                     17-Jun-04                        2.75
                     24-Jun-04                        2.75
                        1-Jul-04                      2.75
                        8-Jul-04                      2.75
                       15-Jul-04                      2.50                12-Jul-04
                       22-Jul-04                      2.50
                       29-Jul-04                      2.50
                       5-Aug-04                       2.50
                     12-Aug-04                        2.25              12-Aug-04
                     19-Aug-04                        2.25
                     26-Aug-04                        2.25
                       2-Sep-04                       2.25
                       9-Sep-04                       2.20              10-Sep-04
                     16-Sep-04                        2.20
                     23-Sep-04                        2.20
                     30-Sep-04                        2.20
                       7-Oct-04                       2.20
                      14-Oct-04                       1.95               12-Oct-04
                      21-Oct-04                       1.95
                      28-Oct-04                       1.95
                       4-Nov-04                       1.95
                     11-Nov-04                        1.90              12-Nov-04
                     18-Nov-04                        1.90
                     25-Nov-04                        1.90
                       2-Dec-04                       1.90
                       9-Dec-04                       1.90              10-Dec-04
                     16-Dec-04                        1.90
                    23-Dec-04                      1.90
                    30-Dec-04                      1.90
      2005            6-Jan-05                     1.90
                    13-Jan-05                      1.95                12-Jan-05
                    20-Jan-05                      1.95
                    27-Jan-05                      1.95
                      3-Feb-05                     1.95
                    10-Feb-05                      1.95                 9-Feb-05
                    17-Feb-05                      1.95
                    24-Feb-05                      1.95
                      3-Mar-05                     1.95
                    10-Mar-05                      2.05                10-Mar-05
                    17-Mar-05                      2.05
                    24-Mar-05                      2.05
                    31-Mar-05                      2.05
                      7-Apr-05                     2.05                  8-Apr-05
                     14-Apr-05                     2.05
                     21-Apr-05                     2.05
                     28-Apr-05                     2.05
                     5-May-05                      2.05
                    12-May-05                                          12-May-05
                    19-May-05
                    26-May-05
                      2-Jun-05
                      9-Jun-05                                         10-Jun-05
                    16-Jun-05
                    23-Jun-05
                    30-Jun-05
                       7-Jul-05
                     14-Jul-05                                          12-Jul-05
                     21-Jul-05
                     28-Jul-05
                      4-Aug-05
                    11-Aug-05                                          12-Aug-05
                    18-Aug-05
                    25-Aug-05




Table 12. WASDE monthly projection of the U.S. farm price received for corn by
forecast period, marketing year 2003/04
Calendar        Weekly forecast
year                     period        WASDE projection      WASDE release date
                                        Dollars per bushel
      2003           01-May-03
                     08-May-03
                     15-May-03                        2.10              12-May-03
                     22-May-03                        2.10
                     29-May-03                        2.10
                     05-Jun-03                        2.10
                     12-Jun-03                        2.10              11-Jun-03
       19-Jun-03     2.10
       26-Jun-03     2.10
         03-Jul-03   2.10
         10-Jul-03   2.10    11-Jul-03
         17-Jul-03   2.10
         24-Jul-03   2.10
         31-Jul-03   2.10
       07-Aug-03     2.10
       14-Aug-03     2.20   12-Aug-03
       21-Aug-03     2.20
       28-Aug-03     2.20
       04-Sep-03     2.20
       11-Sep-03     2.30   11-Sep-03
       18-Sep-03     2.30
       25-Sep-03     2.30
        02-Oct-03    2.30
        09-Oct-03    2.10   10-Oct-03
        16-Oct-03    2.10
        23-Oct-03    2.10
        30-Oct-03    2.10
       06-Nov-03     2.10
       13-Nov-03     2.10   12-Nov-03
       20-Nov-03     2.10
       27-Nov-03     2.10
       04-Dec-03     2.10
       11-Dec-03     2.20   11-Dec-03
       18-Dec-03     2.20
       25-Dec-03     2.20
2004   01-Jan-04     2.20
       08-Jan-04     2.20
       15-Jan-04     2.30   12-Jan-03
       22-Jan-04     2.30
       29-Jan-04     2.30
       05-Feb-04     2.30
       12-Feb-04     2.45   10-Feb-04
       19-Feb-04     2.45
       26-Feb-04     2.45
       04-Mar-04     2.45
       11-Mar-04     2.45   10-Mar-04
       18-Mar-04     2.45
       25-Mar-04     2.45
        01-Apr-04    2.45
        08-Apr-04    2.55   08-Apr-04
        15-Apr-04    2.55
        22-Apr-04    2.55
        29-Apr-04    2.55
       06-May-04     2.55
       13-May-04     2.50   12-May-04
       20-May-04     2.50
       27-May-04     2.50
       03-Jun-04     2.50
       10-Jun-04     2.50   10-Jun-04
                     17-Jun-04                        2.50
                     24-Jun-04                        2.50
                      01-Jul-04                       2.50
                      08-Jul-04                       2.50
                      15-Jul-04                       2.43                 12-Jul-04
                      22-Jul-04                       2.43
                      29-Jul-04                       2.43
                     05-Aug-04                        2.43
                     12-Aug-04                        2.40                 12-Aug-04
                     19-Aug-04                        2.40
                     26-Aug-04                        2.40




Table 13. Policy parameters--target price, national average loan rate,
and direct payment rate, marketing years 2002-2007

Marketing                                                        Direct
year                Target price National average loan rate payment rate
                                 Dollars per bushel
2002-03                    2.60                       1.98         0.28
2003-04                    2.60                       1.98         0.28
2004-05                    2.63                       1.95         0.28
2005-06                    2.63                       1.95         0.28
2006-07                    2.63                       1.95         0.28
2007-08                    2.63                       1.95         0.28
ng year forecasts:


 marketing year 2004/05
 marketing year 2003/04
 y marketing year month, marketing years 1975-2003


cers, marketing year 2004/05 (from monthly Agricultural Prices report)
cers, marketing year 2003/04 (from monthly Agricultural Prices report)
 g years 1975-2003


rn, marketing years 1975-2003
U.S. corn, marketing years 1980-2003



 years 1975-2003

Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)
rn by forecast period, marketing year 2004/05
rn by forecast period, marketing year 2003/04

ment rate by marketing year
 ct payment rate, marketing years 2002-2007


 ting year 2004/05
                September


                     2.90
                     2.84
                     2.78
                     2.81
                     2.93
                     2.84
                     2.81
                     2.81
                     2.72
                     2.67
                     2.63
                     2.50
                     2.50
                     2.56
2.52
2.61
2.54
2.57
2.50
2.44
2.37
2.37
2.37
2.35
2.35
2.37
2.31
2.30
2.36
2.31
2.26
2.26
2.27
2.30
2.28
2.29
2.22
2.19
2.19
2.18
2.21
2.22
2.28
2.31
2.33
2.37
2.25
2.28
2.21 End of Data
ting year 2003/04
               September


                    2.42
                    2.49
                    2.50
                    2.46
                    2.45
                    2.41
                    2.45
                    2.42
                    2.39
                    2.37
                    2.36
                    2.32
                    2.32
                    2.32
                    2.36
                    2.41
                    2.38
                    2.42
                    2.48
                    2.43
                    2.38
                    2.39
                    2.36
                    2.38
                    2.32
                    2.43
                    2.52
                    2.44
                    2.49
                    2.44
                    2.48
                    2.50
                    2.50
                    2.50
                    2.43
                    2.50
                    2.55
                    2.71
                    2.76
                    2.72
                    2.78
                     2.85
                     2.87
                     2.97
                     2.95
                     2.95
                     3.09
                     3.07
                     3.29
                     3.37
                     3.09
                     3.07
                     3.15
                     3.07
                     2.91
                     2.86
                     2.95
                     3.11
                     2.90
                     2.81
                     2.78
                     2.63
                     2.49
                     2.43
                     2.19
                     2.19
                     2.24
                     2.18
                     2.29
                     2.25 End of Data




keting year month, marketing years 1975-2003
Nearby futures contracts
                                   May              July          September
 Marketing year month
                  February      March       April   May    June    July   August
    Dollars per bushel
                       2.69       2.72      2.67    2.84   2.98   2.92        2.79
                       2.56       2.59      2.53    2.44   2.35   2.14        1.89
                       2.26       2.44      2.57    2.56   2.57   2.37        2.19
                       2.37       2.47      2.54    2.67   2.87   3.06        2.82
                       2.72       2.70      2.68    2.80   2.79   3.17        3.43
                       3.61       3.60      3.65    3.55   3.41   3.47        3.11
                       2.68       2.70      2.78    2.79   2.73   2.59        2.33
                       2.73       2.96      3.13    3.10   3.11   3.12        3.53
                       3.25       3.47      3.54    3.49   3.49   3.08        2.97
                       2.68       2.75      2.83    2.76   2.75   2.47        2.30
                       2.39       2.31      2.30    2.35   2.32   1.74        1.61
                       1.50       1.60      1.69    1.90   1.89   1.71        1.57
                       2.00       2.07      2.04    2.14   2.90   3.16        2.89
                     2.70         2.79       2.68          2.71       2.61     2.45    2.30
                     2.43         2.53       2.72          2.85       2.83     2.66    2.48
                     2.40         2.54       2.56          2.49       2.40     2.33    2.49
                     2.65         2.72       2.53          2.58       2.56     2.33    2.19
                     2.12         2.24       2.29          2.29       2.18     2.41    2.37
                     2.91         2.85       2.67          2.66       2.68     2.24    2.19
                     2.33         2.46       2.49          2.61       2.73     2.88    2.83
                     3.74         3.90       4.54          4.81       4.66     3.86    3.64
                     2.81         3.03       2.99          2.81       2.66     2.45    2.63
                     2.69         2.71       2.49          2.48       2.42     2.33    2.06
                     2.15         2.24       2.18          2.20       2.17     1.97    2.14
                     2.20         2.31       2.27          2.40       2.08     1.85    1.78
                     2.11         2.14       2.06          1.99       1.93     2.16    2.17
                     2.05         2.07       1.99          2.08       2.12     2.35    2.59
                     2.39         2.33       2.39          2.45       2.39     2.12    2.20
                     2.83         3.05       3.16          3.02       2.86     2.37    2.25
                     2.00         2.17




arketing year 2004/05 (from monthly Agricultural Prices report)
                                                        Marketing year month
                November     December    January       February       March    April   May    June
                                                          Dollars per bushel
                       2.00
                       2.00
                       2.00
                       2.00
                       2.05           1.99
                       2.05           1.99
                       2.05           1.99
                       2.05           1.99
                       2.05           1.99
                       2.05           2.04        1.98
                       2.05           2.04        1.98
                       2.05           2.04        1.98
                       2.05           2.04        1.98
                       2.05           2.04        2.12            2.02
                       2.05           2.04        2.12            2.02
                       2.05           2.04        2.12            2.02
                       2.05           2.04        2.12            2.02
                       2.05           2.04        2.12            1.95        2.03
                       2.05           2.04        2.12            1.95        2.03




onth (September). The last price listed in the row is a mid-month price and all others are full month prices.


arketing year 2003/04 (from monthly Agricultural Prices report)
                                                        Marketing year month
November   December   January   February      March    April   May   June
                                  Dollars per bushel




    2.24
    2.24
    2.24
    2.24
    2.20       2.32
    2.20       2.32
    2.20       2.32
    2.20       2.32
    2.20       2.32
    2.20       2.32      2.46
    2.20       2.32      2.46
    2.20       2.32      2.46
    2.20       2.32      2.46
    2.20       2.32      2.39       2.55
    2.20       2.32      2.39       2.55
    2.20       2.32      2.39       2.55
    2.20       2.32      2.39       2.55
    2.20       2.32      2.39       2.61       2.79
    2.20       2.32      2.39       2.61       2.79
                       2.20           2.32        2.39            2.61        2.79
                       2.20           2.32        2.39            2.61        2.79
                       2.20           2.32        2.39            2.61        2.79
                       2.20           2.32        2.39            2.61        2.75       2.87
                       2.20           2.32        2.39            2.61        2.75       2.87
                       2.20           2.32        2.39            2.61        2.75       2.87
                       2.20           2.32        2.39            2.61        2.75       2.87
                       2.20           2.32        2.39            2.61        2.75       2.89        2.78
                       2.20           2.32        2.39            2.61        2.75       2.89        2.78
                       2.20           2.32        2.39            2.61        2.75       2.89        2.78
                       2.20           2.32        2.39            2.61        2.75       2.89        2.78
                       2.20           2.32        2.39            2.61        2.75       2.89        2.87         2.74
                       2.20           2.32        2.39            2.61        2.75       2.89        2.87         2.74
                       2.20           2.32        2.39            2.61        2.75       2.89        2.87         2.74
                       2.20           2.32        2.39            2.61        2.75       2.89        2.87         2.74
                       2.20           2.32        2.39            2.61        2.75       2.89        2.87         2.74
                       2.20           2.32        2.39            2.61        2.75       2.89        2.87         2.79
                       2.20           2.32        2.39            2.61        2.75       2.89        2.87         2.79
                       2.20           2.32        2.39            2.61        2.75       2.89        2.87         2.79
                       2.20           2.32        2.39            2.61        2.75       2.89        2.87         2.79


onth (September). The last price listed in the row is a mid-month price and all others are full month prices.



          Marketing year month
                  February          March         April           May        June         July    August        Annual
           Dollars per bushel
                      2.48            2.50        2.46            2.61        2.74       2.82        2.64         2.54
                      2.34            2.35        2.31            2.25        2.12       1.88        1.63         2.15
                      2.03            2.15        2.24            2.29        2.28       2.16        2.01         2.02
                      2.18            2.22        2.27            2.35        2.49       2.64        2.54         2.25
                      2.39            2.40        2.36            2.42        2.49       2.73        2.92         2.52
                      3.22            3.25        3.24            3.24        3.17       3.14        2.87         3.11
                      2.44            2.46        2.55            2.60        2.57       2.50        2.30         2.50
                      2.56            2.71        2.95            3.03        3.04       3.13        3.35         2.55
                      3.11            3.21        3.32            3.34        3.36       3.30        3.12         3.21
                      2.62            2.67        2.70            2.68        2.64       2.60        2.44         2.63
                      2.32            2.29        2.30            2.39        2.32       2.00        1.73         2.23
                      1.42            1.47        1.52            1.66        1.69       1.60        1.47         1.50
                      1.83            1.86        1.88            1.94        2.41       2.72        2.65         1.94
                      2.59            2.60        2.56            2.58        2.52       2.47        2.27         2.54
                      2.32            2.37        2.51            2.62        2.63       2.62        2.51         2.36
                      2.32            2.39        2.42            2.38        2.31       2.27        2.33         2.28
                      2.46            2.49        2.48            2.49        2.47       2.33        2.15         2.37
                      2.00            2.10        2.16            2.14        2.09       2.22        2.25         2.07
                      2.79            2.74        2.65            2.60        2.61       2.29        2.16         2.50
                      2.23            2.30        2.36            2.42        2.51       2.63        2.63         2.26
                      3.37            3.51        3.85            4.14        4.20       4.43        4.30         3.24
                      2.65            2.79        2.80            2.69        2.56       2.42        2.50         2.71
                      2.55            2.55        2.41            2.34        2.28       2.19        1.89         2.43
                       2.05     2.06   2.04    1.99    1.97    1.74      1.75   1.94
                       1.98     2.03   2.03    2.11    1.91    1.64      1.52   1.82
                       1.96     1.96   1.89    1.82    1.76    1.87      1.90   1.85
                       1.93     1.94   1.91    1.93    1.97    2.13      2.38   1.97
                       2.34     2.33   2.34    2.38    2.34    2.17      2.15   2.32
                       2.61     2.75   2.89    2.87    2.79    2.51      2.34   2.42
                       1.95     2.03




keting years 1975-2003
 Marketing year month
                  February     March   April   May     June     July   August
    Dollars per bushel
                       -0.21   -0.22   -0.21   -0.23   -0.24   -0.10    -0.15
                       -0.22   -0.24   -0.22   -0.19   -0.23   -0.26    -0.26
                       -0.23   -0.29   -0.33   -0.27   -0.29   -0.21    -0.18
                       -0.19   -0.25   -0.27   -0.32   -0.38   -0.42    -0.28
                       -0.33   -0.30   -0.32   -0.38   -0.30   -0.44    -0.51
                       -0.39   -0.35   -0.41   -0.31   -0.24   -0.33    -0.24
                       -0.24   -0.24   -0.23   -0.19   -0.16   -0.09    -0.03
                       -0.17   -0.25   -0.18   -0.07   -0.07    0.01    -0.18
                       -0.14   -0.26   -0.22   -0.15   -0.13    0.23     0.15
                       -0.06   -0.08   -0.13   -0.08   -0.11    0.13     0.14
                       -0.07   -0.02    0.00    0.04    0.00    0.26     0.12
                       -0.08   -0.13   -0.17   -0.24   -0.20   -0.11    -0.10
                       -0.17   -0.21   -0.16   -0.20   -0.49   -0.44    -0.24
                       -0.11   -0.19   -0.12   -0.13   -0.09    0.02    -0.03
                       -0.11   -0.16   -0.21   -0.23   -0.20   -0.03     0.03
                       -0.08   -0.15   -0.14   -0.11   -0.09   -0.06    -0.16
                       -0.19   -0.23   -0.05   -0.09   -0.09    0.00    -0.04
                       -0.12   -0.14   -0.13   -0.15   -0.09   -0.19    -0.12
                       -0.12   -0.11   -0.02   -0.06   -0.07    0.05    -0.03
                       -0.10   -0.16   -0.13   -0.19   -0.22   -0.25    -0.20
                       -0.37   -0.39   -0.69   -0.67   -0.46    0.57     0.66
                       -0.16   -0.24   -0.19   -0.12   -0.10   -0.03    -0.13
                       -0.14   -0.16   -0.08   -0.14   -0.14   -0.14    -0.17
                       -0.10   -0.18   -0.14   -0.21   -0.20   -0.23    -0.39
                       -0.22   -0.28   -0.24   -0.29   -0.17   -0.21    -0.26
                       -0.15   -0.18   -0.17   -0.17   -0.17   -0.29    -0.27
                       -0.12   -0.13   -0.08   -0.15   -0.15   -0.22    -0.21
                       -0.05    0.00   -0.05   -0.07   -0.05    0.05    -0.05
                       -0.22   -0.30   -0.27   -0.15   -0.07    0.14     0.09
                       -0.05   -0.14
rn, marketing years 1980-2003
                   Marketing year month
                  January      February     March    April   May     June      July        August
                     Dollars per bushel
                    -0.25          -0.23    -0.26    -0.27   -0.28   -0.29    -0.28          -0.28
                    -0.30          -0.27    -0.29    -0.31   -0.30   -0.29    -0.33          -0.29
                    -0.29          -0.28    -0.29    -0.31   -0.30   -0.27    -0.30          -0.25
                    -0.28          -0.26    -0.28    -0.28   -0.25   -0.23    -0.25          -0.25
                    -0.27          -0.25    -0.28    -0.27   -0.22   -0.18    -0.13          -0.16
                    -0.22          -0.20    -0.24    -0.23   -0.16   -0.14    -0.01          -0.03
                    -0.15          -0.14    -0.17    -0.15   -0.09   -0.10     0.11           0.04
                    -0.13          -0.11    -0.15    -0.14   -0.10   -0.10     0.10           0.02
                    -0.13          -0.11    -0.14    -0.14   -0.13   -0.19     0.01           0.01
                    -0.13          -0.10    -0.13    -0.12   -0.12   -0.18    -0.03          -0.02
                    -0.15          -0.11    -0.14    -0.13   -0.15   -0.20    -0.06          -0.04
                    -0.14          -0.11    -0.17    -0.16   -0.18   -0.21    -0.13          -0.10
                    -0.16          -0.13    -0.19    -0.14   -0.15   -0.19    -0.10          -0.09
                    -0.15          -0.12    -0.17    -0.13   -0.14   -0.11    -0.05          -0.06
                    -0.18          -0.12    -0.16    -0.11   -0.13   -0.11    -0.05          -0.07
                    -0.18          -0.12    -0.16    -0.09   -0.12   -0.11    -0.09          -0.11
                    -0.26          -0.18    -0.21    -0.20   -0.23   -0.18     0.04           0.05
                    -0.23          -0.18    -0.21    -0.23   -0.23   -0.19     0.03           0.03
                    -0.23          -0.18    -0.21    -0.22   -0.23   -0.20     0.04           0.02
                    -0.18          -0.17    -0.23    -0.25   -0.26   -0.23    -0.01          -0.05
                    -0.21          -0.20    -0.25    -0.27   -0.28   -0.22    -0.01          -0.06
                    -0.14          -0.15    -0.21    -0.16   -0.18   -0.16    -0.18          -0.24
                    -0.17          -0.14    -0.19    -0.14   -0.19   -0.17    -0.22          -0.26
                    -0.15          -0.13    -0.15    -0.14   -0.18   -0.15    -0.18          -0.24
                    -0.18          -0.15    -0.18    -0.16   -0.17   -0.14    -0.17          -0.18




  Marketing year month
                    February        March    April   May     June     July   August Sum of weights
e of total for the marketing year
                         0.08        0.08    0.06    0.07    0.07    0.06      0.06           1.00
                         0.08        0.08    0.07    0.06    0.07    0.07      0.08           1.00
                         0.08        0.09    0.08    0.07    0.07    0.06      0.06           1.00
                         0.08        0.07    0.08    0.07    0.09    0.09      0.07           1.00
                         0.07        0.08    0.06    0.07    0.08    0.09      0.09           1.00
                         0.07        0.08    0.07    0.05    0.05    0.06      0.06           1.00
                         0.07        0.09    0.09    0.07    0.07    0.07      0.06           1.00
                         0.08        0.08    0.06    0.06    0.07    0.07      0.07           1.00
                         0.08        0.12    0.08    0.06    0.05    0.07      0.05           1.00
                         0.07        0.10    0.08    0.07    0.06    0.07      0.05           1.00
                     0.05          0.05       0.07           0.07       0.06        0.05       0.05            1.00
                     0.08          0.09       0.10           0.08       0.07        0.05       0.07            1.00
                     0.08          0.09       0.06           0.07       0.10        0.09       0.07            1.00
                     0.06          0.08       0.06           0.07       0.07        0.06       0.08            1.00
                     0.07          0.08       0.08           0.06       0.06        0.04       0.05            1.00
                     0.08          0.07       0.08           0.05       0.06        0.08       0.08            1.00
                     0.09          0.08       0.04           0.04       0.05        0.06       0.06            1.00
                     0.07          0.09       0.07           0.05       0.05        0.07       0.06            1.00
                     0.07          0.07       0.04           0.05       0.05        0.06       0.06            1.00
                     0.08          0.08       0.05           0.06       0.06        0.07       0.07            1.00
                     0.08          0.09       0.06           0.04       0.03        0.03       0.03            1.00
                     0.10          0.08       0.06           0.05       0.06        0.07       0.07            1.00
                     0.07          0.07       0.05           0.05       0.07        0.06       0.07            1.00
                     0.08          0.09       0.05           0.04       0.06        0.07       0.10            1.00
                     0.07          0.08       0.06           0.04       0.04        0.06       0.09            1.00
                     0.05          0.06       0.05           0.05       0.05        0.08       0.08            1.00
                     0.06          0.06       0.06           0.06       0.08        0.09       0.08            1.00
                     0.06          0.07       0.07           0.07       0.05        0.06       0.07            1.00
                     0.07          0.08       0.06           0.03       0.05        0.06       0.05            1.00




weights. Initially, they were reported with weights for 14 months. The conversion summed each month's weight for




                  Marketing year month
                 January      February      March            April       May       June        July         August
                    Dollars per bushel
                    0.11           0.08       0.08           0.07       0.07        0.08       0.07            0.07
                    0.12           0.08       0.08           0.07       0.06        0.07       0.07            0.07
                    0.12           0.07       0.08           0.07       0.07        0.07       0.07            0.07
                    0.13           0.07       0.08           0.07       0.07        0.07       0.08            0.07
                    0.13           0.07       0.09           0.07       0.06        0.07       0.07            0.06
                    0.13           0.07       0.09           0.08       0.06        0.06       0.07            0.06
                    0.13           0.07       0.09           0.08       0.07        0.06       0.06            0.05
                    0.13           0.07       0.09           0.08       0.07        0.06       0.06            0.06
                    0.12           0.07       0.09           0.08       0.07        0.07       0.06            0.06
                    0.12           0.07       0.08           0.07       0.07        0.07       0.06            0.06
                    0.12           0.07       0.08           0.07       0.07        0.07       0.06            0.06
                    0.12           0.07       0.08           0.08       0.07        0.07       0.06            0.07
                    0.13           0.08       0.08           0.06       0.06        0.07       0.06            0.07
                    0.13           0.07       0.08           0.07       0.05        0.06       0.06            0.07
                    0.14           0.08       0.07           0.06       0.05        0.05       0.06            0.06
                    0.14           0.08       0.07           0.06       0.05        0.05       0.06            0.07
                    0.15           0.08       0.08           0.05       0.05        0.05       0.06            0.05
                    0.15           0.08       0.08           0.06       0.05        0.05       0.06            0.06
                    0.16           0.08       0.08           0.05       0.05        0.05       0.06            0.06
0.15   0.08   0.08   0.06   0.05   0.06   0.06   0.07
0.15   0.08   0.08   0.06   0.05   0.05   0.06   0.07
0.15   0.07   0.08   0.05   0.05   0.06   0.07   0.08
0.14   0.06   0.07   0.05   0.05   0.06   0.07   0.08
0.14   0.06   0.07   0.06   0.05   0.06   0.07   0.08
0.15   0.06   0.07   0.06   0.05   0.06   0.07   0.07
July   August
End of Data
July   August
2.42
2.42
2.42
2.42   End of Data
Sum of weights

          1.00
          1.00
          1.00
          1.00
          1.00
          1.00
          1.00
          1.00
          1.00
          1.00
          1.00
          1.00
          1.00
          1.00
          1.00
          1.00
          1.00
          1.00
          1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00

				
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Description: Zap Futures document sample