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Retail Sales Forecasting - Excel

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Retail Sales Forecasting document sample

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									      Responses for Corporate (e.g. rates)                                  (Some companies left some responses blank, and those blank responses are reflected here.)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Michigan South Central
      Question                                          ITC                                            Wolverine                                                       Detroit Edison                                         Consumers Energy                                    Indiana Michigan                            Power Agency                Alpena Power Company               MPPA
*     Contact Info                       Henry Schwab                       Rick Kohler     Wolverine Power Supply Cooperative, Inc. (231) The Detroit Edison Company, Aldo F. Colandrea, 2000                   Lincoln Warriner                                Mark Gilbert, 918-599-2170                             Glen White, General Manager     Joseph Bedford, CPA        Matt Dykstra and Pete
                                         Address: 27175 Energy Way,         775-5700                                                       Second Avenue, Detroit, Michigan 48226.                                                                                                                                      720 Herring Road, Litchfield,   989-358-4947               Schimpke
                                         Novi, MI 48377                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 MI (517) 542-2346 ext. 316      989-358-4990 (fax)         809 Centennial Way,
                                         Phone: 248 946-3355                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            jbedford@alpenapower.com   Lansing, MI 48917
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   517-323-8919
    1 What organization is responsible Load Forecasting & Market            Power System Engineering, Inc (PSE) under contract to                The Detroit Edison Company's Corporate Energy                   Rates and Business Support Department           I&M & AEP Corporate Planning and Budgeting,            MSCPA                           Alpena Power Company       MPPA
      for developing the forecast?     Analysis                             Wolverine.                                                           Forecasting group is responsible for developing the                                                             Economic Forecasting
                                                                                                                                                 forecast.
    2 Who is the key contact(s) within Henry Schwab                         Rick Kohler                                                          Aldo F. Colandrea, Manager of Corporate Energy                  Lincoln Warriner                                Mark Gilbert                                           Glen White                      Joseph H. Bedford          Matt Dykstra and
      your company for questions                                                                                                                 Forecasting, is the key contact.                                                                                                                                       General Manager                                            Pete Schimpke
      about the development and/or                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      (517) 542-2346
      use of the forecast?

    3 What is the primary purpose?       Used for transmission rate setting This is fundamentally a long-term annual forecast of energy          The primary purpose of the forecast is providing a basis for    Financial and Operational Planning (examples: Financial Plan, Integrated Resource Plan,                Budgetary                       PSCR Case                  Rate Calculation
      Any other uses? If so, specify.                                       sales by class and a seasonal peak forecast for Wolverine and        short- and long-term business planning, and for rate case       Rate Cases, PSCR Plan, Summer Capacity Filing, Transmission Planning
                                                                            each of its four member distribution cooperatives. It is primarily   purposes. The forecast is used throughout Detroit Edison,       10-Q/10-K Disclosures, Financial projections)
                                                                            used for power supply planning and distribution system               and provided to external entities such as MPSC, MISO, and
                                                                            planning.                                                            NERC.
    4 What is the forecast period        1 year                             The forecast period is 15 years with forecasts updated annually.     The forecast period varies from one to twenty years.            current to 2030                                 10-years is the generally published forecast period. 10 Year                           1-5 Years                  Annual
      (e.g., one-year, five, ten, 20)?                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Models are run for 30-years for other internal
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 modeling and some external uses.
    5 What is the process for            Annual, on a service territory   Residential, seasonal, and general C&I annual energy sales             A new forecast is developed four times per year.                Forecasts are reviewed periodically, and        Long term forecast is updated annually at a minimum Annual, or as changes occur.       See Notes                  annual, multiple
      developing the forecast (i.e.,     basis by econometric models.     forecasts for each member are the product of the number of                                                                             generally are revised 2-3 times per year.       and quarterly when necessary. Forecasts are                                                                       regression
      how often, methodology,                                             consumers and use-per-consumer forecasts. Residential                  The service area forecast is the accumulation of the            Regression analysis is used in developing       periodically evaluated and updated if necessary.
      granularity, etc.)?                                                 consumers are forecasted based on third-party household                forecasts for the four major customer classifications:          energy forecasts at a customer class level.
                                                                          forecasts by county and estimates of the share of county               Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Other.                 Peak demand is forecast in total (also using
                                                                          households served by the members. Residential use-per-                                                                                 regression analysis). Adjustments are applied
                                                                          consumer forecasts are based on time-series, cross-section             For most sectors of the forecast, electric sales levels are     to the forecast for Energy Efficiency, Load
                                                                          econometric models. Seasonal and general C&I consumer and              related to the various economic, technological, regulatory,     Control / Demand Response, & Retail Open
                                                                          usage forecasts are based on separable econometric or trending         and demographic factors that have affected them in the          Access.
                                                                          models for each member. Large C&I customer forecasts are               past. The procedure begins with the assembly of historical
                                                                          developed by Wolverine and the member systems based on                 data relating to the various sectors of the forecast. These
                                                                          forecasted growth for each large load. Econometric models for          data are examined and the factors that are statistically
                                                                          sales to this class are then used to determine the plausible           significant in explaining electric sales are identified using
                                                                          magnitudes for new load additions to this class. Sales to minor        regression techniques. Forecast models are developed
                                                                          classes are forecasted based on trends. Total energy                   employing the appropriate regression equations.
                                                                          requirements for each member are the sum of the class sales
                                                                          forecasts plus distribution losses and own use by the members.         Economic driving variables (explanatory factors), such as
                                                                          Wolverine total energy requirements are the sum of sales to            steel production, car and truck production, non-
                                                                          members plus transmission losses and Wolverine's own use.              manufacturing employment, and others, are entered into
                                                                          Total annual energy requirements are allocated to months based         the forecast models to calculate projected future sales
                                                                          on historic load shapes by class. Monthly peak forecasts for           levels.
    6 What is the process and timing                                      The member are based is separable econometric models that
                                         Sept 1. The forecast is basis of eachforecast information on received, reviewed internally, and         A forecast is submitted to the Michigan Public Service                                                          Forecast input is received and output is reviewed by Distributed for budgetary         N/A                        Annual, and as requested
      for distributing forecasts to      the forecast posted to the OASIS distributed to each of Wolverine's member cooperatives in the          Commission (MPSC) as part of a Main Rate Case or a                                                              I&M and AEP personel. The forecast is released to    planning. Input from
      other (external) entities? If                                       1st quarter of the year. Wolverine's member systems who are            Power Supply Cost Recovery Plan on an annual basis.                                                             parties external to AEP/I&M once approved by         members on monthly basis.
      applicable, how is input on the                                     Rural Development, Utilities Program (RDUP - formerly RUS)                                                                                                                             company management and allowed to flow to users of
      forecast provided?                                                  borrowers, are required to submit a Board-Approved load                                                                                                                                the forecast for the development of a consistent
                                                                          forecast on a periodic basis as one of the support documents for                                                                                                                       planning package.
                                                                          any new loan application. This occurs on an as-needed basis.




    7 On what date was the most         September 1, 2008                   The most current forecast was published in January 2008; it is       The most current forecast was published on September 30, Our most recent forecast was developed at the The most current long-term outlook was completed in Not published                               N/A                        Currently Dec 2008, new
      current forecast published? If                                        not publicly available. An updated forecast will be made             2008.                                                      end of October, and is included in our         March 2008. A new forecast will be completed based                                                                      forecast available Sept
      available publicly, specify where                                     available to Wolverine by the end of 2008.                                                                                      November 14, 2008 General Rate Case filing (U- on #5 above.                                                                                                            2009, available upon
      it may be obtained. When will a                                                                                                            This forecast is available publicly in a Power Supply Cost 15645)                                                                                                                                                                 request
      new or revised forecast be                                                                                                                 Recover Plan before the Michigan Public Service
      published?                                                                                                                                 Commission, Case No. U-15677.

                                                                                                                                                 The timing of a new or revised forecast is to be
                                                                                                                                                 determined.
    8 How are updates or changes        Annually                            The forecast is updated on an annual basis.                          The forecast is updated four times per year (approximately As Needed                                            See #5, Updates are made on a quarterly interval       As needed                       Annual                     Regular Interval
      handled (e.g., on regular                                                                                                                  quarterly) and when otherwise deemed applicable.                                                                basis.
      interval or as needed)?
    9 Do other entities (external) rely See #6 above                        Wolverine's members utilize the forecast for planning purposes MPSC and NERC rely on the forecast for regulatory                                                                     Yes, forecast are provided in a number of filings.     No. Information for members No                             Yes, Rate Calculations
      on the forecast and, if so, how?                                      and to provide required documentation to RDUP. RDUP relys on purposes.                                                                                                               Their use is unknown.                                  only.
                                                                            forecast to support loans to borrower.
10 Where is information such as          Michigan Department of             Not provided externally.                                       The testimony and exhibits from the forecast are available Assumptions would be included in rate case                 The annual PSCR filing in Michigan and other filings in NA                             PSCR Case                  Available upon request
   assumptions on the forecast           Transportation forecast data.                                                                     to Detroit Edison employees on the company intranet. The filings and PSCR plan case filings                           Indiana.
   available (e.g., rate case            Growth assumptions are those                                                                      forecast is also submitted to the MPSC via rate case and
   filings)?                             inherent in the data. Historic                                                                    PSCR, and is available on the MPSC website.
                                         data is from Moody's.
   Responses for Corporate (e.g. rates)                                 (Some companies left some responses blank, and those blank responses are reflected here.)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Michigan South Central
   Question                                          ITC                                           Wolverine                                                      Detroit Edison                                       Consumers Energy                                       Indiana Michigan                           Power Agency               Alpena Power Company                  MPPA
11 What are main data sources and Demands are from historic ITC                                                                             For most sectors of the forecast, electric sales levels are                                                                                                            Historical load data           See Notes                     Woods and Poole, US
   forecast drivers and where is  data. See #10 for source of                                                                               related to the various weather, economic, technological,                                                                                                                                                                            Govt resources, city inputs
   this documented? Please be as economic drivers.                                                                                          regulatory, and demographic factors that have affected
   specific as possible when                                                                                                                them in the past. The procedure begins with the assembly
   identifying data sources.                                                                                                                of historical data relating to the various sectors of the
                                                                                                                                            forecast. These data are examined and the factors that are
                                                                                                                                            statistically significant in explaining electric sales are
                                                                                                                                            identified using regression techniques. Forecast models are
                                                                                                                                            developed employing the appropriate regression equations.

                                                                                                                                            Economic driving variables (explanatory factors), such as
                                                                                                                                            steel production, car and truck production, non-
                                                                                                                                            manufacturing employment, and others, are entered into
                                                                                                                                            the forecast models to calculate projected future sales
                                                                                                                                            levels. The variables are documented in the forecast
                                                                                                                                            models.
   a. Weather drivers                 Hourly temperatures at NOAA       Midwestern Regional Climate Center data from six Michigan                                                                         Energy: HDD & CDD statistics; Peak: Min & Max Heating and Cooling degree days and average daily          not used                                                     CDD, HDD
                                      weather stations at Metro         weather stations.                                                                                                                 Air Temps and Avg Dew Point; calculated from temperature from NOAA.
                                      Airport, Grand Rapids, Lansing                                                                                                                                      Lansing weather station data
                                      and Flint
   b. Economic drivers                Real personal income              Woods and Poole Economics provides county-level data.                                                                             Michigan Housing Starts, Population,                County, Regional, State and National economic drivers individual to members                                       Total Employment, Total
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Manufacturing Employment, Industrial                from Moody's Economy.com                                                                                          Earnings, Personal
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Production Indexes supplied by Global Insight                                                                                                                         Income, Gross Regional
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Production, Total Retail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Sales
   c. Demographic drivers                                               Woods and Poole Economics provides county-level data.                                                                                                                                 County, Regional, State and National demographic      not used                                                    Total Population, Total
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              drivers from Moody's Economy.com                                                                                  number of Households
   d. Other drivers                   Presence of certain months,       Central air-conditioner saturations and county weights are                                                                        Central Air Conditioning saturation (from           EIA for appliance saturation, energy price and coal                                                               Historical Usage
                                      adjustment for non normal peak    developed from a residential customer survey, done every three                                                                    surveys); Central A/C efficiency standards          production trends. FRB industrial production indexes.
                                      days.                             years by Wolverine. The most recent survey was completed in
                                                                        2007.
12 How has demand response or       Neither is specifically addressed   Impacts from Wolverine's direct load control of water heaters are   Per recent legislation, an Energy Efficiency Program is       Energy efficiency targets are calculated and        Energy Efficiency is captured in the residential and Not utilized at present. In    Not specifically forecasted   Historically not included,
   energy efficiency been treated at this time.                         removed from the historical data prior to forecast development      included in our forecast beginning in 2009. The Energy        applied as an adjustment to the forecast;           commercial Statistical Adjusted End-Use models (SAE) process of accounting for EE                                 expected to include
   in forecast(s)? Is that expected                                     with expected future impacts added back to the uncontrolled         Efficiency Program considers sales reductions above those     Demand response adjustments are provided by         and trends embedded in past load data. Demand        programs in process.                                         demand and energy
   to change in future forecasts                                        future peak forecasts. Energy efficiency impacts have not been      naturally occurring in the forecast. This effect has been     project team; projections are likely to change as   response impacts (interruptible, etc) are shown as a                                                              reductions in future
   and, if so, how?                                                     separately evaluated in the Wolverine load forecast.                included in the service area and bundled sales projections.   specific programs are developed and                 load reduction in the resource plan. New company                                                                  forecasts.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          implemented                                         and state mandated energy efficiency impacts are
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              deducted from the model forecast results. As
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              company and state mandated programs mature, the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              impacts may migrate to be modeled in the forecast
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              process. How energy efficiency is treated in future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              forecasts is not expected to change.
13 Are significant potential new      Loads related to future uses,     The existing forecasts are preliminarily based on historical        Significant potential new loads are included in The Detroit   There is no specific assumption regarding PHEV AEP's approach when considering significant new           Wait and see.                  Wait and See                  Wait and see
   loads, e.g. PHEV, included in      e.g., PHEV are not included.      energy use and peak demand data, which includes continuous          Edison Company's forecasts.                                   in our forecasts                               loads, like PHEV, is to add those loads to the forecast
   forecasts or is wait-and-see the   Specific customer changes, plus   growth in use per consumer. This inherently reflects historical                                                                                                                  assuming low pentration until such new loads appear
   rule?                              or minus, are included when       patterns of new load created by the proliferation of new electric                                                                                                                to be more certain. This approach is similar to the
                                      known.                            appliances such as plasma TVs, PCs, etc. If the other identified                                                                                                                 way AEP add/deducts potential large customer loads
                                                                        new loads are firm, then they are included.                                                                                                                                      to the forecast. PHEV is being studied and will be
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         added in upcoming forecasts.
14 How specific is the load           Service territory                 The load forecast is prepared on a distribution cooperative      The load forecast is created at the service territory level.     Total System                                   The load forecast is developed at a jurisdictional level. Specific to each member.       Entire company                city and substation
   forecast(s), i.e. county, city,                                      system level for each customer class, which incorporates county-
   substation, etc.?                                                    level economic and demographic data.
  Responses for Transmission Power Flow Models


  Question                                         ITC                                ATC
1 What organization is responsible Load Forecasting & Market            ATC's load-serving entities
  for developing the forecast?     Analysis                             (LSEs) develop the forecasts.
                                                                        ATC's planning department and
                                                                        consultant review the forecasts
                                                                        and make modifications, as
                                                                        needed, in coordination with the
                                                                        LSEs.


2 Who is the key contact(s) within Henry Schwab                         Connie Lunde, ATC
  your company for questions       Tom Vitez                            Transmission Planning
  about the development and/or                                          Specialist, clunde@atcllc.com,
  use of the forecast?                                                  (262) 506-6765.

3 What is the primary purpose?       Long range planning studies        Provide forecasts for power flow
  Any other uses? If so, specify.                                       models used in ATC's ten-year
                                                                        assessment (TYA).




4 What is the forecast period        As required, generally 15 years 15-year forecasts
  (e.g., one-year, five, ten, 20)?
5 What is the process for            Annually. Residential and Non      Forecasts are developed
  developing the forecast (i.e.,     Manufacturing sales by             annually by the LSEs at the
  how often, methodology,            statistically adjusted end use     substation level and are
  granularity, etc.)?                models. Customers by               provided to ATC. Methodologies
                                     econometric models.                vary by LSE. ATC reviews the
                                     Manufacturing sales by             forecasts, provides questions to
                                     econometric models. Demands        LSEs, and discusses proposed
                                     by historically observed load      revisions with LSEs prior to
                                     factors against total sales from   making revisions.
                                     sum of parts.
 6 What is the process and timing    At present, not supplied to       Final forecasts are distributed to
   for distributing forecasts to     external entities. Intent is to   LSEs electronically prior to
   other (external) entities? If     start using in planning models    running TYA power flow models
   applicable, how is input on the   in this MET cycle.                (usually in summer or fall).
   forecast provided?




 7 On what date was the most         Not formally published            The most recent forecast was
   current forecast published? If                                      finalized in October 2008 and
   available publicly, specify where                                   will be included in the 2009 TYA
   it may be obtained. When will a                                     to be published in the fall of
   new or revised forecast be                                          2009. The previous forecast was
   published?                                                          included in the 2008 TYA
                                                                       published in September 2008.
                                                                       The TYA is available on ATC's
                                                                       website www.atcllc.com.
                                                                       Projected growth rates are
                                                                       published in TYA document.
                                                                       Detailed substation-level
                                                                       forecasts are deemed
                                                                       confidential and are not
 8 How are updates or changes        Annually                          published.
                                                                       Updates to substation-level
   handled (e.g., on regular                                           forecasts are provided annually
   interval or as needed)?                                             by LSEs. Any needed revisions
                                                                       are made by ATC in
                                                                       coordination with LSEs.
                                                                       Revisions are made prior to
                                                                       running TYA models.
 9 Do other entities (external) rely Input to planning authorities'    MMWG, ERAG, MRO, MISO, RFC
   on the forecast and, if so, how? models

10 Where is information such as      Michigan Department of            Assumptions vary by LSE and
   assumptions on the forecast       Transportation forecast data.     are available in their regulatory
   available (e.g., rate case        Growth assumptions are those      filings.
   filings)?                         inherent in the data. Historic
                                     data is from Moody's.
11 What are main data sources       Energy & customer counts from
   and forecast drivers and where   EIA and MPSC public data.
   is this documented? Please be    Demands & load factors are
   as specific as possible when     from ITC data. End use data is
   identifying data sources.        from EIA and LSE data as filed
                                    in rate cases.




   a. Weather drivers               Hourly temperatures at NOAA      Varies by LSE.
                                    weather stations at Metro
                                    Airport, Grand Rapids, Lansing
                                    and Flint
   b. Economic drivers              Real personal income, GDP,       Varies by LSE.
                                    Mfg. GDP, total Employment,
                                    Mfg. Employment



   c. Demographic drivers           Population, households           Varies by LSE.

   d. Other drivers                 Real price of electricity,       Varies by LSE.
                                    calculated from publicly
                                    available data.
12 How has demand response or         Energy efficiency is implicitly    Varies by LSE. No explicit
   energy efficiency been treated     included through federally         adjustments for demand
   in forecast(s)? Is that expected   mandated appliance efficiencies.   response or DSM are made by
   to change in future forecasts      Demand response is not             ATC.
   and, if so, how?                   specifically addressed.




13 Are significant potential new      Loads related to future uses,    New loads with high likelihood
   loads, e.g. PHEV, included in      e.g., PHEV are not included.     of coming on line are included
   forecasts or is wait-and-see the   Specific customer changes, plus  in the LSE forecasts. Speculative
   rule?                              or minus, are included when      new loads are excluded. The
                                      known.                           specific rules may vary
                                                                       somewhat by LSE.
14 How specific is the load           Service territory, disaggregated Interconnection point (usually a
   forecast(s), i.e. county, city,    to county and station            substation)
   substation, etc.?
(Some companies left some responses blank, and those blank responses are reflected here.)




            Wolverine                      Detroit Edison                  Consumers Energy
Internal.                          Corporate Energy Forecasting       Rates and Business Support
                                   and Planning & Design (P&D)        Department
                                   Group




Dan Wilkinson                      Aldo Colandrea, Energy             RGCottrell & DBIdzior
                                   Forecasting
                                   Karen Whitman, P&D Group


1. Transmission Planning         2. For use in the power flow model   HVD internal model for CE
FERC 714 Reporting          3.      that is developed by the          planning, MISO Model for METC
Reliability Planning                Operational and Planning          MTEP planning, Regional
                                    Engineering (OPE) group which     Transmission Cost Allocation,
                                    is responsible for the sub-       Financial Transmission Rights,
                                    transmission network              Generator Interconnection
                                    powerflow. It is also used for    System Impact Studies, NERC
                                    MISO MTEP analysis,               Reliability Assessments
                                    Generation Interconnection
                                    studies and NERC Reliability
                                    Assessments.
Five-year and ten-year              1 year, and 2 year, annually      Annually through ten years
forecasts.
Automated computer model           Annually from P&D Group's Area Total Load+Transmission Loss
using a polynomial regression      Load Analysis.                 Annually from CERatesDept,
analysis. The model uses the                                      Individual
most recent five-year actual       Historical loads considered,   Customer&Distribution load
load data. The regression          coupled with Marketing         from annual SP&P Load Study
analysis results are then          department input.              Analysis
weather normalized for the
future projection period. The
forecast is prepared annually.
June submission to FERC via        Presently the planning power     Semi-Annual in MOD, Annually
electronic filing. Update and      flow cases (*.raw) are           to METC for NERC,
submission in August to RFC for    submitted to ITC in March, as
reliability studies via email      updated, or requested by ITC
(IDEV file). Update and            planning, RFC or NERC.
submission in October to MISO
for MTEP process via MOD.
Input to the process is provided
through internal database.

October 2008 - for MISO MTEP. Forecast in this model was            Latest Forecast October 2008,
Not available publicly.       updated in March 2008                 Public Submittal to MPSC PSCR
                                                                    in September 2008 was June
                                                                    2008 forecast




Annually or more frequently as     Annually or more frequently as   MOD updates as needed,
needed.                            needed.                          Annually to METC for NERC




FERC for industry statistics.      ITC MISO, RFC, NERC              METC, MISO, NERC, RFC - CE
RFC for reliability planning.                                       component of transmission
                                                                    customers in METC area
FERC Form 1 annual filing.         Historical data                  Assumptions would be included
                                                                    in rate case filings and PSCR
                                                                    plan case filings
                                  See Corporate tab   See Corporate Forecast




National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration


N/A




N/A

Actual system load data. Actual
system losses.
Any current EE or DM savings       No specific adjustment are   See Corporate Forecast
contained in actual system data included in the power flow
is part of the regression analysis model
and therefore projected in
future periods. New EE or DM
has not yet been incorporated.




If new loads are firm, then they Non-firm or new speculative     See Corporate Forecast
are included.                    loads are not included in power
                                 flow. New loads with high
                                 likelihood of fruition are
                                 included.

System-wide forecast only.       Service Territory              A)Total CE Load +ROA
                                 Distribution Circuit, where    +Transmission Loss         B)
                                 applicable                     By individual HVD Substation
                                  Michigan South
                                  Central Power    Alpena Power
      Indiana Michigan                Agency         Company               MPPA
Please refer to I&M's responses                                   MPPA
under Corporate. The Company
generates one load forecast
used for multiple purposes.




                                                                  Matt Dykstra and
                                                                  Pete Schimpke



                                                                  Transmission Modeling




                                                                  1, 2, 5, 10, 15

                                                                  annual, multiple
                                                                  regression
As updates become
available, or when
requested. Submitted
through MOD.




currently Nov 2008, new
submission Jan 2009,
available in MOD




Regular Interval




MISO, Modeling


Available upon request
Woods and Poole, US
Govt resources, city
inputs




CDD, HDD



Total Employment, Total
Earnings, Personal
Income, Gross Regional
Production, Total Retail
Sales

Total Population, Total
number of Households
Historical Usage
Historically not included,
expected to include
demand and energy
reductions in future
forecasts.




Wait and see




substation
                                      PJM
PJM develops peak load (MW) forecasts and energy (GWh) forecasts for the
RJM RTO and each of its 18 Transmission Zones. The 2008 PJM Load
Forecast Report is available at the following link:

2008 PJM Load Forecast Report

http://www.pjm.com/planning/res-adequacy/downloads/2008-load-report.pdf


The Capacity Adequacy Planning Department within the System Planning
Division of PJM is responsible for producing the long-term planning forecast.
Mr. Thomas Falin is the person who primarily directs this effort.


The primary purpose of the load forecast is input to:

I.   Regional Transmission Expansion Planning – identifies required system
upgrades
II.   Installed Reserve Margin (IRM) Study – sets the reserve margin to
meet the reliability criterion
III.   Capacity Emergency Transfer Objective (CETO) and Capacity
Emergency Transfer Limit (CETL) Studies – establishes deliverability of
aggregate generation to load
IV.    Reliability Pricing Model – sets the capacity obligation in PJM’s capacity
market
15 years

Annually, an econometric model of daily non-coincident peak (NCP) and
coincident peak (CP) demand is estimated based on historical demand data
for PJM’s eighteen transmission zones and the PJM RTO. The model is solved
over the forecast horizon using projections for the input variables. Please see
attached documentation for a description of the input variables.
The final forecast report is published in January of each year. Prior to that,
draft versions of the report are made available for review by the preceding
December. The report is reviewed by the PJM Load Analysis Subcommittee
and the PJM Planning Committee.




The most recent forecast was published January, 2008. It is available at the
link identified below. An updated forecast will be published by January 30,
2009.




Official updates to the forecast are made annually. Changes to the report,
necessitated by changes to historical data, are made as needed.

PJM submits its forecasts to ReliabilityFirst (RFC), which uses them in the
development of RFC reports to the North American Electric Reliability
Corporation. The forecast is also submitted to SERC Reliability Corporation
(SERC) for the same purpose.
Information on the forecast is available on PJM’s website, at www.pjm.com.
The current and previous PJM Load Forecast reports are available, as well as
a whitepaper on the development of the load forecasting model, a review of
the load forecasting model conducted by The Brattle Group and the PJM
Manual for Load Forecasting and Analysis (M-19). Links are provided below.

2008 PJM Load Forecast Report
http://www.pjm.com/planning/res-adequacy/downloads/2008-load-report.pdf

Load Forecasting Whitepaper
http://www.pjm.com/planning/res-adequacy/downloads/forecast-model-
whitepaper.pdf

Brattle Report – An Evaluation of PJM’s Peak Demand Forecasting Process
http://www.pjm.com/planning/res-adequacy/downloads/brattle-final-
report.pdf

Manual 19: Load Forecasting and Analysis
http://www.pjm.com/contributions/pjm-manuals/pdf/m19.html

temperature, humidity and wind speed, provided by Meteorlogix -



Gross Metropolitan Product, provided by Moody’s Economy.com




n/a

Calendar effects, e.g., length of day, holiday, et
PJM forecasts gross (unrestricted) load, and includes adjustments for
anticipated demand response. The anticipated demand response level is
based on emergency programs that have committed to PJM load through a
forward capacity auction. Any other demand response programs would be
reflected in lower historical levels (and therefore lower forecast) to the extent
that they are interrupted. No explicit adjustments are currently made for
anticipated energy efficiency programs. However, PJM intends to include
energy efficiency adjustments once State-developed programs have
progressed to the point where load impacts that can be used in planning
studies are identified. PJM expects that in the near future PJM capacity
auction rules will be modified to allow energy efficiency programs to
participate in forward capacity auctions. If and when that rule change is
made, PJM would then include in its load forecast the effect of any energy
efficiency programs that have cleared in a future capacity auction.



No new significant loads are included in the forecast.




Forecasts are developed for each of PJM’s 18 transmission zones.
  Responses for Transmission Economic Models

  Question                                        ITC                            ATC
1 What organization is responsible Load Forecasting & Market        ibid; if futures forecasts
  for developing the forecast?     Analysis                         (scenarios) are needed, ATC
                                                                    works with respective
                                                                    customers to develop those
                                                                    future forecasts.




2 Who is the key contact(s) within Henry Schwab                     ibid
  your company for questions
  about the development and/or
  use of the forecast?

3 What is the primary purpose?       Economic studies               ibid
  Any other uses? If so, specify.




4 What is the forecast period        As required, generally 15      ibid
  (e.g., one-year, five, ten, 20)?   years
5 What is the process for            Annually. Residential and      ibid
  developing the forecast (i.e.,     Non Manufacturing sales by
  how often, methodology,            statistically adjusted end use
  granularity, etc.)?                models. Customers by
                                     econometric models.
                                     Manufacturing sales by
                                     econometric models.
                                     Demands by historically
                                     observed load factors against
                                     total sales from sum of parts.



6 What is the process and timing                                    ibid
                                     Not supplied to outside entities.
  for distributing forecasts to
  other (external) entities? If
  applicable, how is input on the
  forecast provided?
 7 On what date was the most         Not formally published        ibid
   current forecast published? If
   available publicly, specify where
   it may be obtained. When will a
   new or revised forecast be
   published?
 8 How are updates or changes        Annually                      ibid
   handled (e.g., on regular
   interval or as needed)?
 9 Do other entities (external) rely Internal only                 ibid
   on the forecast and, if so, how?

10 Where is information such as     Michigan Department of         ibid
   assumptions on the forecast      Transportation forecast data.
   available (e.g., rate case       Growth assumptions are
   filings)?                        those inherent in the data.
                                    Historic data is from Moody's.

11 What are main data sources       Energy & customer counts
   and forecast drivers and where   from EIA and MPSC public
   is this documented? Please be    data. Demands & load
   as specific as possible when     factors are from ITC data.
   identifying data sources.        End use data is from EIA and
                                    LSE data as filed in rate
                                    cases.




   a. Weather drivers               Hourly temperatures at       ibid
                                    NOAA weather stations at
                                    Metro Airport, Grand Rapids,
                                    Lansing and Flint
   b. Economic drivers              Real personal income, GDP, ibid
                                    Mfg. GDP, total Employment,
                                    Mfg. Employment



   c. Demographic drivers           Population, households         ibid
   d. Other drivers                 Real price of electricity,      ibid
                                    calculated from publicly
                                    available data.
12 How has demand response or       Energy efficiency is implicitly ibid
   energy efficiency been treated included through federally
   in forecast(s)? Is that expected mandated appliance
   to change in future forecasts    efficiencies. Demand
   and, if so, how?                 response is not specifically
                                    addressed.




13 Are significant potential new      Loads related to future uses, ibid
   loads, e.g. PHEV, included in      e.g., PHEV are not included.
   forecasts or is wait-and-see the   Specific customer changes,
   rule?                              plus or minus, are included
                                      when known.
14 How specific is the load           Service territory,            ibid
   forecast(s), i.e. county, city,    disaggregated to county and
   substation, etc.?                  station
(Some companies left some responses blank, and those blank responses are reflected here.)

                  Detroit
 Wolverine        Edison           Consumers Energy                 Indiana Michigan
                              Rates and Business Support          Please refer to I&M's
                              Department                          responses under
                                                                  Corporate. The
                                                                  Company generates
                                                                  one load forecast used
                                                                  for multiple purposes.



                              Lincoln Warriner




                              Financial and Operational
                              Planning (examples: Rate
                              Cases, PSCR Plan,
                              Budgets/Forecasts, Strategic
                              Plans, IRP)




                              current to 2030

                              Forecasts are reviewed
                              periodically, and generally are
                              revised 2-3 times per year.
                              Regression analysis is used in
                              developing energy forecasts at
                              a customer class level. Peak
                              demand is forecast in total (also
                              using regression analysis).
                              Adjustments are applied to the
                              forecast for Energy Efficiency,
                              Load Control / Demand
                              Response, & Retail Open
                              Access.
Our most recent forecast was
developed at the end of
October, and is included in our
November 14, 2008 General
Rate Case filing (U-15645)

As Needed




Assumptions would be included
in rate case filings, PSCR plan
case filings, and IRP filings



See Corporate Forecast
See Corporate Forecast




See Corporate Forecast




Total System
e reflected here.)

              Michigan South Central Alpena Power
                  Power Agency       Company        MPPA
                                                    MPPA




                                                    Matt Dykstra and
                                                    Pete Schimpke



                                                    Transmission Modeling




                                                    1, 2, 5, 10, 15

                                                    annual, multiple
                                                    regression




                                                    As updates become
                                                    available, or when
                                                    requested. Submitted
                                                    through MOD.
currently Nov 2008,
new submission Jan
2009, available in MOD



Regular Interval


MISO, Modeling


Available upon request




Woods and Poole, US
Govt resources, city
inputs




CDD, HDD



Total Employment,
Total Earnings,
Personal Income,
Gross Regional
Production, Total Retail
Sales
Total Population, Total
number of Households
Historical Usage


Historically not
included, expected to
include demand and
energy reductions in
future forecasts.




Wait and see




substation
                                      PJM
PJM develops peak load (MW) forecasts and energy (GWh) forecasts for the
RJM RTO and each of its 18 Transmission Zones. The 2008 PJM Load
Forecast Report is available at the following link:

2008 PJM Load Forecast Report

http://www.pjm.com/planning/res-adequacy/downloads/2008-load-report.pdf


The Capacity Adequacy Planning Department within the System Planning
Division of PJM is responsible for producing the long-term planning forecast.
Mr. Thomas Falin is the person who primarily directs this effort.


The primary purpose of the load forecast is input to:

I.   Regional Transmission Expansion Planning – identifies required system
upgrades
II.   Installed Reserve Margin (IRM) Study – sets the reserve margin to
meet the reliability criterion
III.   Capacity Emergency Transfer Objective (CETO) and Capacity
Emergency Transfer Limit (CETL) Studies – establishes deliverability of
aggregate generation to load
IV.    Reliability Pricing Model – sets the capacity obligation in PJM’s capacity
market
15 years

Annually, an econometric model of daily non-coincident peak (NCP) and
coincident peak (CP) demand is estimated based on historical demand data
for PJM’s eighteen transmission zones and the PJM RTO. The model is solved
over the forecast horizon using projections for the input variables. Please see
attached documentation for a description of the input variables.
The final forecast report is published in January of each year. Prior to that,
draft versions of the report are made available for review by the preceding
December. The report is reviewed by the PJM Load Analysis Subcommittee
and the PJM Planning Committee.


The most recent forecast was published January, 2008. It is available at the
link identified below. An updated forecast will be published by January 30,
2009.
Official updates to the forecast are made annually. Changes to the report,
necessitated by changes to historical data, are made as needed.

PJM submits its forecasts to ReliabilityFirst (RFC), which uses them in the
development of RFC reports to the North American Electric Reliability
Corporation. The forecast is also submitted to SERC Reliability Corporation
(SERC) for the same purpose.


Information on the forecast is available on PJM’s website, at www.pjm.com.
The current and previous PJM Load Forecast reports are available, as well as
a whitepaper on the development of the load forecasting model, a review of
the load forecasting model conducted by The Brattle Group and the PJM
Manual for Load Forecasting and Analysis (M-19). Links are provided below.

2008 PJM Load Forecast Report
http://www.pjm.com/planning/res-adequacy/downloads/2008-load-report.pdf

Load Forecasting Whitepaper
http://www.pjm.com/planning/res-adequacy/downloads/forecast-model-
whitepaper.pdf

Brattle Report – An Evaluation of PJM’s Peak Demand Forecasting Process
http://www.pjm.com/planning/res-adequacy/downloads/brattle-final-
report.pdf

Manual 19: Load Forecasting and Analysis
http://www.pjm.com/contributions/pjm-manuals/pdf/m19.html

temperature, humidity and wind speed, provided by Meteorlogix -



Gross Metropolitan Product, provided by Moody’s Economy.com




n/a
Calendar effects, e.g., length of day, holiday, et


PJM forecasts gross (unrestricted) load, and includes adjustments for
anticipated demand response. The anticipated demand response level is
based on emergency programs that have committed to PJM load through a
forward capacity auction. Any other demand response programs would be
reflected in lower historical levels (and therefore lower forecast) to the extent
that they are interrupted. No explicit adjustments are currently made for
anticipated energy efficiency programs. However, PJM intends to include
energy efficiency adjustments once State-developed programs have
progressed to the point where load impacts that can be used in planning
studies are identified. PJM expects that in the near future PJM capacity
auction rules will be modified to allow energy efficiency programs to
participate in forward capacity auctions. If and when that rule change is
made, PJM would then include in its load forecast the effect of any energy
efficiency programs that have cleared in a future capacity auction.



No new significant loads are included in the forecast.




Forecasts are developed for each of PJM’s 18 transmission zones.
  Responses for Module E (and RPM)                          (Some companies left some responses blank, and thos


  Question                           ITC          ATC                   Wolverine
1 What organization is responsible         LSEs send        Internal.
  for developing the forecast?             Module E
                                           information to
                                           MISO.




2 Who is the key contact(s) within         ibid             Tim Martin
  your company for questions
  about the development and/or
  use of the forecast?

3 What is the primary purpose?             ibid             1. MISO Capacity Planning 2.
  Any other uses? If so, specify.                           Wolverine's Power Supply
                                                            Budget




4 What is the forecast period              ibid             Ten-year forecast.
  (e.g., one-year, five, ten, 20)?
5 What is the process for                  ibid             Simple trend analysis of the
  developing the forecast (i.e.,                            most recent ten-year actual
  how often, methodology,                                   load data. The trend results are
  granularity, etc.)?                                       then modified by 50/50 weather
                                                            normalization. This forecast is
                                                            prepared annually, or more
                                                            frequently on an as-needed
                                                            basis.




6 What is the process and timing           ibid             February submission to MISO
  for distributing forecasts to                             via email (Excel file). Input to
  other (external) entities? If                             the process is provided through
  applicable, how is input on the                           internal database.
  forecast provided?
 7 On what date was the most           ibid   August 2008 - for Wolverine's
   current forecast published? If             Power Supply Budget. Not
   available publicly, specify where          available publicly.
   it may be obtained. When will a
   new or revised forecast be
   published?
 8 How are updates or changes          ibid   Annually or more frequently as
   handled (e.g., on regular                  needed.
   interval or as needed)?
 9 Do other entities (external) rely   ibid   MISO for capacity planning.
   on the forecast and, if so, how?

10 Where is information such as        ibid   FERC Form 1 annual filing.
   assumptions on the forecast
   available (e.g., rate case
   filings)?
11 What are main data sources
   and forecast drivers and where
   is this documented? Please be
   as specific as possible when
   identifying data sources.




   a. Weather drivers                  ibid   National Oceanic & Atmospheric
                                              Administration
   b. Economic drivers                 ibid   N/A



   c. Demographic drivers              ibid   N/A

   d. Other drivers                    ibid   Actual system load data. Actual
                                              system losses.
12 How has demand response or         ibid   Any current EE or DM savings
   energy efficiency been treated            contained in actual system data
   in forecast(s)? Is that expected          is part of the trend analysis and
   to change in future forecasts             therefore projected in future
   and, if so, how?                          periods. New EE or DM has not
                                             yet been incorporated.




13 Are significant potential new      ibid   If new loads are firm, then they
   loads, e.g. PHEV, included in             are included.
   forecasts or is wait-and-see the
   rule?
14 How specific is the load           ibid   System-wide forecast only.
   forecast(s), i.e. county, city,
   substation, etc.?
eft some responses blank, and those blank responses are reflected here.)

                                                                                 Indiana
                     Detroit Edison                Consumers Energy              Michigan
             The Detroit Edison Company's    Rates and Business Support
             Corporate Energy Forecasting    Department
             group is responsible for
             developing the forecast.




             Aldo F. Colandrea, Manager of   Lincoln Warriner
             Corporate Energy Forecasting,
             is the key contact.


             Capacity planning and rate case Resource Planning
             purposes




             10 years                        Ten Years

             See corporate                   Forecasts are reviewed
                                             periodically, and generally are
                                             revised 2-3 times per year.
                                             Regression analysis is used in
                                             developing energy forecasts at
                                             a customer class level. Peak
                                             demand is forecast in total (also
                                             using regression analysis).
                                             Adjustments are applied to the
                                             forecast for Energy Efficiency,
                                             Load Control / Demand
                                             Response, & Retail Open
                                             Access.
             As required by MISO annually    When the Forecast is updated,
             with monthly updates.           it is submitted to MISO.
First Quarter of 2009.                               10/31/2008




Monthly updates                   As Needed


MISO uses the forecast as part    MISO for Module E and FTR
of the Module E process.          Registration

Information on the forecast is    Assumptions would be included
also available on submittals to   in rate case filings and PSCR
MISO as part of the Module E      plan case filings
process.
See corporate.                    See Corporate Forecast
See corporate.   See Corporate Forecast




Not available.   See Corporate Forecast



See corporate.   Total System without ROA
   Michigan South Central   Alpena Power
       Power Agency           Company                  MPPA
AMP-Ohio                                   MPPA




Tim Walton                                 Bruce VanFarowe
(614) 337-6222



MISO Requirement                           Resource Adequacy




1 year                                     1-10yrs

annual, compilation of 5                   annual, multiple regression
member loads




As required by MISO                        Annually near end of May
                       2/29/2008   currently May 2008, New
                                   submission May 2009




as needed                          Regular Interval


Yes - MISO                         MISO


NA                                 Available upon request



Historical load data               Woods and Poole, US Govt
                                   resources, city inputs




                                   CDD, HDD

                                   Total Employment, Total
                                   Earnings, Personal Income,
                                   Gross Regional Production,
                                   Total Retail Sales
                                   Total Population, Total number
                                   of Households
                                   Historical Usage
Not utilized at present. In    Historically not included,
process of accounting for EE   expected to include demand
programs in process.           and energy reductions in future
                               forecasts.




Wait and see.                  Wait and see



Specific to each member.       CP node
                                      PJM
PJM develops peak load (MW) forecasts and energy (GWh) forecasts for the
RJM RTO and each of its 18 Transmission Zones. The 2008 PJM Load
Forecast Report is available at the following link:

2008 PJM Load Forecast Report

http://www.pjm.com/planning/res-adequacy/downloads/2008-load-report.pdf


The Capacity Adequacy Planning Department within the System Planning
Division of PJM is responsible for producing the long-term planning forecast.
Mr. Thomas Falin is the person who primarily directs this effort.


The primary purpose of the load forecast is input to:

I.   Regional Transmission Expansion Planning – identifies required system
upgrades
II.   Installed Reserve Margin (IRM) Study – sets the reserve margin to
meet the reliability criterion
III.   Capacity Emergency Transfer Objective (CETO) and Capacity
Emergency Transfer Limit (CETL) Studies – establishes deliverability of
aggregate generation to load
IV.    Reliability Pricing Model – sets the capacity obligation in PJM’s capacity
market
15 years

Annually, an econometric model of daily non-coincident peak (NCP) and
coincident peak (CP) demand is estimated based on historical demand data
for PJM’s eighteen transmission zones and the PJM RTO. The model is solved
over the forecast horizon using projections for the input variables. Please see
attached documentation for a description of the input variables.
The final forecast report is published in January of each year. Prior to that,
draft versions of the report are made available for review by the preceding
December. The report is reviewed by the PJM Load Analysis Subcommittee
and the PJM Planning Committee.


The most recent forecast was published January, 2008. It is available at the
link identified below. An updated forecast will be published by January 30,
2009.
Official updates to the forecast are made annually. Changes to the report,
necessitated by changes to historical data, are made as needed.

PJM submits its forecasts to ReliabilityFirst (RFC), which uses them in the
development of RFC reports to the North American Electric Reliability
Corporation. The forecast is also submitted to SERC Reliability Corporation
(SERC) for the same purpose.
Information on the forecast is available on PJM’s website, at www.pjm.com.
The current and previous PJM Load Forecast reports are available, as well as
a whitepaper on the development of the load forecasting model, a review of
the load forecasting model conducted by The Brattle Group and the PJM
Manual for Load Forecasting and Analysis (M-19). Links are provided below.

2008 PJM Load Forecast Report
http://www.pjm.com/planning/res-adequacy/downloads/2008-load-report.pdf

Load Forecasting Whitepaper
http://www.pjm.com/planning/res-adequacy/downloads/forecast-model-
whitepaper.pdf

Brattle Report – An Evaluation of PJM’s Peak Demand Forecasting Process
http://www.pjm.com/planning/res-adequacy/downloads/brattle-final-
report.pdf

Manual 19: Load Forecasting and Analysis
http://www.pjm.com/contributions/pjm-manuals/pdf/m19.html

temperature, humidity and wind speed, provided by Meteorlogix -

Gross Metropolitan Product, provided by Moody’s Economy.com



n/a

Calendar effects, e.g., length of day, holiday, et
PJM forecasts gross (unrestricted) load, and includes adjustments for
anticipated demand response. The anticipated demand response level is
based on emergency programs that have committed to PJM load through a
forward capacity auction. Any other demand response programs would be
reflected in lower historical levels (and therefore lower forecast) to the extent
that they are interrupted. No explicit adjustments are currently made for
anticipated energy efficiency programs. However, PJM intends to include
energy efficiency adjustments once State-developed programs have
progressed to the point where load impacts that can be used in planning
studies are identified. PJM expects that in the near future PJM capacity
auction rules will be modified to allow energy efficiency programs to
participate in forward capacity auctions. If and when that rule change is
made, PJM would then include in its load forecast the effect of any energy
efficiency programs that have cleared in a future capacity auction.



No new significant loads are included in the forecast.



Forecasts are developed for each of PJM’s 18 transmission zones.
   Responses for OTHER
                                                 MPPA
   Question                                 Resource Planning
 1 What organization is responsible MPPA
   for developing the forecast?

 2 Who is the key contact(s) within Matt Dykstra and
   your company for questions       Pete Schimpke
   about the development and/or
   use of the forecast?

 3 What is the primary purpose?        Resource Planning
   Any other uses? If so, specify.
 4 What is the forecast period         5, 10, 15, 20yr
   (e.g., one-year, five, ten, 20)?
 5 What is the process for             annual, multiple regression
   developing the forecast (i.e.,
   how often, methodology,
   granularity, etc.)?
 6 What is the process and timing      Annual, and as needed
   for distributing forecasts to
   other (external) entities? If
   applicable, how is input on the
   forecast provided?

 7 On what date was the most           Currently Dec 2008, new
   current forecast published? If      forecast available Sept 2009,
   available publicly, specify where   available upon request
   it may be obtained. When will a
   new or revised forecast be
   published?
 8 How are updates or changes          Regular interval, and as needed
   handled (e.g., on regular
   interval or as needed)?
 9 Do other entities (external) rely   Yes, Resource Planning
   on the forecast and, if so, how?

10 Where is information such as   Available upon request
   assumptions on the forecast
   available (e.g., rate case
   filings)?
11 What are main data sources     Woods and Poole, US Govt
   and forecast drivers and where resources, city inputs
   is this documented? Please be
   as specific as possible when
   identifying data sources.

   a. Weather drivers                  CDD, HDD
   b. Economic drivers              Total Employment, Total
                                    Earnings, Personal Income,
                                    Gross Regional Production,
                                    Total Retail Sales
   c. Demographic drivers           Total Population, Total number
                                    of Households
   d. Other drivers                 Historical Usage
12 How has demand response or       Historically not included,
   energy efficiency been treated expected to include demand
   in forecast(s)? Is that expected and energy reductions in future
   to change in future forecasts    forecasts.
   and, if so, how?
13 Are significant potential new    Wait and see
   loads, e.g. PHEV, included in
   forecasts or is wait-and-see the
   rule?
14 How specific is the load         city
   forecast(s), i.e. county, city,
   substation, etc.?
Responses in NOTES:              (Many responses had left the notes section blank, so they have not been included)
     Consumers Energy                        MSPCA                   Alpena Power Company
Notes/ Detailed explanations (if needed):

SP&PCE: System Planning &        MSCPA is a Michigan Joint Action
Protection Consumers Energy      Agency serving the five Michigan
HVD: High Voltage Distribution   municipalities of Clinton,
MTEP: Midwest ISO                Coldwater, Hillsdale, Marshall
Transmission Expansion Plan      and Union City.
                                                              Because of our size and the
                                                              existance of our purchase
FTR: Financial Transmission                                   power contract with Consumers
Rights                        MSCPA reports load projections Energy, which is essentially a
GSIS: Generator               annually to METC/ITC for        full requirements contract that
Interconnection System Impact transmission planning purposes. expires Dec 31, 2024 we do not
Studies                                                       have a formalized forecast
                                                              method. The only forecast we
                                                              prepare is included in our
TEM: Transmission Economic    All members are municipalites   annual PSCR filings. The
Models                        which set their own rates, and  forecast is based upon observed
MOD: MISO Model On Demand are not subject to MPSC             trends and discussions with
Data Base                     approval.                       large customers.

                                 All members will be reporting
CDD: Cooling Degree Day          jointly to the MPSC under the
HDD: Heating Degree Day          new EE and RPS programs
                                 through MSCPA.
hey have not been included)
                                      ITC



            The Transmission Owner (TO) has ultimate
            responsibility for the load forecast used for reliability
            planning under Attachment FF of the MISO tariff.
            ITC Holdings' position was presented in the initial
            meeting of the ISLPA Workgroup on Sept. 18, 2008.


            The current LSE forecasts will be used as a proxy
            during the MTEP09 cycle, as specific information,
            e.g. identification of conforming/non conforming
            stations is missing in some cases. ITC Holdings
            looks to rectify these shortage in the near future
            with the respective LSEs.

            Load forecast uncertainty is increasing due to the
            bleak economic environment as well as unknown
            customer response to current legislative mandates
            regarding energy efficiency and demand side
            management..

            Given Michigan is an electrical peninsula and the
            increasing uncertainty noted with #4 above, a 50/50
            forecast may not be appropriate for transmission
            reliability planning.

								
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