Penny Shares Prices by cpb17381

VIEWS: 16 PAGES: 447

More Info
									                                                           Macke's Retail Roundup
                                                   Same Store Sales Comps for December 2005

 Company              Ticker   Estimate    Actual Over / Under
Abercrombie          ANF       19.2       29.0    9.80
Aeropostale          ARO       3.0        11.4    8.40

American Eagle       AEOS      2.8        9.8     7.00

Ann Taylor           ANN       2.9        1.5     (1.40)
Bebe Stores          BEBE      2.9        1.1     (1.80)
Big Lots             BLI       1.3        2.3     1.00
BJ's Wholesale       BJ        2.8        1.4     (1.40)

Bombay Co            BBA       1.3        (3.5)   (4.80)

Chicos FAS           CHS       8.7        16.4    7.70
Children's Place     PLCE      6.6        11.0    4.40
Christopher and Banks CBK      1.5                (1.50)
Claire's Stores      CLE       4.4        4.0     (0.40)
Costco               COST      6.0        7.0     1.00
CVS Corp             CVS       7.3        7.3     0.00
Dillard's            DDS       0.5        1.0     0.50
Dollar General       DG        2.4        (2.8)   (5.20)
Dress Barn           DBRN      4.3        8.0     3.70
Family Dollar        FDO       2.9        2.3     (0.60)
Federated            FD        2.0        3.4     1.40

Fred's               FRED      1.6        1.9     0.30

Gap                  GPS       (3.7)      (9.0)   (5.30)
Guess?               GES       8.7        17.5    8.80
Gymboree             GYMB      6.6        16.0    9.40

Hot Topic            HOTT      (3.9)      (6.2)   (2.30)

JC Penny             JCP       2.6        2.2     (0.40)
Jo-Ann Stores        JAS       (1.0)      (0.5)   0.50
Jos. A Banks                JOSB       4.4      20.7     16.30
Kohl's                      KSS        5.5      4.6      (0.90)
Limited                     LTD        3.5      3.0      (0.50)
Lowes                       LOW        n/a      n/a      #VALUE!
Men's Warehouse             MW         3.6      8.1      4.50

Nordstrom                   JWN        3.5      7.7      4.20

Pacific Sunwear             PSUN       3.1      1.0      (2.10)

Pier 1 Imports              PIR        (4.6)    (4.8)    (0.20)
Ross Stores                 ROST       1.8      6.0      4.20
Saks                        SKS        1.1      2.4      1.30

Sharper Image               SHRP       (12.0)   (15.0)   (3.00)

Talbots                     TLB        1.3      1.1      (0.20)
Target                      TGT        4.5      4.7      0.20
TJX Cos                     TJX        1.6      6.0      4.40
Walgreen                    WAG        7.7      6.2      (1.50)

Wal-Mart                    WMT        3.1      2.2      (0.90)

     Macke's Retail Roundup
Same Store Sales Comps for December 2005

         It's nice to see some good looking kids living up to large expectations, after watching USC fall short
         last night. ANF raises FY EPS to 3.67 - 3.72 vs. 3.44 - 3.49 expectations.
         Co raises expectations substantially, making this a higher quality sales beat than that of…

         …. These guys who re-confirmed existing EPS, more or less. AEOS was rumored to be hugely
         promotional during the season, making this number functionally "better than expectations"
         The type of numbers that remind you of the price you pay when you stay up late to watch football.
         So… very… tired (yet content in the righteous nature of the universe)
         Rethinking their "Don't Die Alone" line of New Years Eve party wear

         A disappointing, if not entirely unhappy, finish to the Holidays.
         Regardless of which Darren was playing the lead role at the moment, by the time Elizabeth
         Montgomery scrunched up her (perfect) nose and called in Dr. Bombay things were looking
         desperate in the Bewitched household. The same thing could be happening here.
         Chico hasn't had occasion to be discouraged by missing SSS
         Looking to tighten their return policy for parents rethinking just how "nice" their kids may or may not
         have been.

         My daugher is very big on the plastic necklace accessory. Limited data pool (n=1) but worth noting
         Becoming a bit more of a holiday chain.
         It's all about the drugs.
         Working hard to make no progress.

         Co takes EPS estimates below Street Range. Risking a humilating demotion to Dollar Captain.

         Within the range, more or less
         "Pleased" with Macy's and Bloomingdales. Department stores as a whole continue to go through life
         with the emotional balance of the characters in "Flatliners"
         Walmart's aborted comeback didn't even hurt the lesser discount chains for more than November.
         Here's what happens when you hold the line on promotions but don't have the goods people want:
         Paris Hilton's old label did well selling clothes for the post-Holiday Party Walk of Shame.

         HOTTs therapist says that the chains weak SSS behavior stems from the chain wanting to be loved
         for their own unique personality. The Street angrily responds, "Why can't you just be more like
         Takes up numbers despite light sales. Good promotional control.
At some point SSS that beat expectations by this much have diminishing returns, stock wise.
Controls, anyone?
The Great Pumpkin of retail turnaround efforts.
Insert your own snark here… yup, these results are just that uninspiring to me.

"… and (Billy's) soaking, soaking wet! It's raining men, hallaleulah… "
Returning to our Flatliners mental construct, Nordies is the Kevin Bacon character who, let's face it,
really didn't have the same type of "stuff" to deal with as, say, Julia Roberts'. Nordies still plugging
away, never all that "disturbed" to begin with.
HOTT's parents would settle for PSUN type of behavior "They're sort of out of it but at lest they aren't
Ok… so the wicker Christmas Tree idea fell short of becoming a national craze. Hey, at least they
A slightly irregular numbers butt kicking.

Mrs. Jeffmacke and I spent some time in the local Sharper Image last week. Plenty of elbow room
and deep (deeeeeep) discount toys for bored grown-ups. It's a long road back for these folks.

No longer concerned about a re-energized Walmart.
TJ's finding a bit more of their stride in December
Dead since the moment I wrote favorably about them.
The Ric Flair of Retail: Still able to put together an impressive show every once in a while (as WMT
did in November) but no longer able to amaze with any regularity. As Apollo said to Rocky, "it's a
shame we gotta get old".
                                                                     Macke's Retail Roundup
                                                                Same Store Sales Comps for November 2005

 Company                 Ticker   Estimate    Actual Over / Under

Abercrombie             ANF       21.6       23.0     1.40

Aeropostale             ARO       (2.0)      7.1      9.10

American Eagle          AEOS      10.9       1.7      (9.20)

Ann Taylor              ANN       4.0        12.9     8.90
Bebe Stores             BEBE      4.2        4.2      0.00
Big Lots                BLI       (0.2)      0.7      0.90
BJ's Wholesale          BJ        4.1        1.8      (2.30)
Bombay Co               BBA       1.7        (12.4)   (14.10)
Chicos FAS              CHS       11.4       11.8     0.40
Children's Place        PLCE      6.7        12.0     5.30
Christopher and Banks   CBK       0.8        (3.0)    (3.80)
Claire's Stores         CLE       5.4        5.0      (0.40)

Costco                  COST      7.3        6.0      (1.30)

CVS Corp                CVS       7.0                 (7.00)
Dillard's               DDS       1.6        1.0      (0.60)
Dollar General          DG        0.9        (0.2)    (1.10)
Dress Barn              DBRN      5.0        10.0     5.00
Family Dollar           FDO       2.7        3.4      0.70
Federated               FD        1.5        (3.4)    (4.90)

Fred's                  FRED      1.4        4.5      3.10
Gap                     GPS       (4.6)      (4.0)    0.60
Guess?                  GES       10.0       15.8     5.80

Gymboree                GYMB      9.5        22.0     12.50

Hot Topic               HOTT      (4.1)      0.0      4.10
JC Penny                JCP       2.0        3.6      1.60
Jo-Ann Stores           JAS       0.3        (6.1)    (6.40)
Jos. A Banks            JOSB      7.0        3.8      (3.20)
Kohl's                      KSS        5.0      (0.1)    (5.10)

Limited                     LTD        1.7      5.0      3.30
Lowes                       LOW                          0.00
Men's Warehouse             MW         4.2      5.8      1.60
Neiman-Marcus               NMG.A               4.0      4.00
Nordstrom                   JWN        4.8      2.8      (2.00)
Pacific Sunwear             PSUN       5.3      3.0      (2.30)
Pier 1 Imports              PIR        0.2      1.9      1.70
Ross Stores                 ROST       4.2      5.0      0.80
Saks                        SKS        2.8      0.1      (2.70)
Sharper Image               SHRP       (13.8)   (18.0)   (4.20)
Talbots                     TLB        0.1      3.3      3.20
Target                      TGT        3.0      2.6      (0.40)

TJX Cos                     TJX        0.1      (1.0)    (1.10)
Walgreen                    WAG        5.4               (5.40)

Wal-Mart                    WMT        4.3      4.3      0.00

     Macke's Retail Roundup
Same Store Sales Comps for November 2005

    The numbers are great for ANF but the expectations have been raised (did I actually hear CNBC refer to a
    "whisper number" for ANF?). On a day when it looks like ANF is a performance outlier, Abercrombie is your
    specialty retail Tell DuJour
    "You think *we* missed? You think *we* stink? Look at American Eagle…. Just look at them! We think *you*
    stink, consumer!"
    You can love your country. You can love specialty retailers. What you *can't* do, ever, is fall in love with a retail
    specialty stock. Not even if it's named after your country. AEOS had been averaging mid-teen SSS growth for
    '05. This is a really, really bad time of the year to lose momentum.
    The Ying to AEOS' terrible Yang. Great month for ANN but skepticism remains; "I'm still changing my maiden
    name to Coldwater Creek" says Mrs. Jeffmacke (formerly Anne Taylor)
    "In line and almost totally flat… just like our target customers!"
    They didn't beat by Lots, big or small.
    Always a tough line of business during this, the "full price = love" season
    It doesn't have to be Ali… in fact, I don't care who it is… just somebody, please "Bomba Ya" Bombay
    Good results largely in-line with expectations. The back up tell DuJour for "Good results on a bad day"
    "Rent a nice kid for Christmas" promotion doing well.
    Remember when these guys were the hottest thing since sliced bread? Neither do they.
    Cheap. Plastic. "Fine".
    Misses and blames the US dollar. I suppose it's a more creative excuse than blaming the weather. Still not a
    "good" excuse, and the stock should get mauled, but around here we give points for making wildly implausable
    excuses with a straight face.
    People may like drugs but they don't like companies that report their results too late for publication
    As of today, the great 2005 Department Store Revival is dead.
    "Strong sales in snacks, pet supplies and paper products". Translating from Retailese: "Our average margin on
    goods sold was zero ("nuttin", "bupkiss")
    Nightly seminars on animal husbandry with flair doing well
    a "Phew" of a SSS number. As in "Phew, we just made it"
    I'll have to double check this fact but, I believe, RH Macy himself was the only person to ever make money
    owning the Macy's chain and he's been dead for 120 years.
    The discounters seem to be coming in OK… which would have been a "Buy the News" item a month ago. After
    the November discounter rally (ex Target), these figures may not be good enough
    Dead until further notice.
    Flame Retardant Driving Pants doing well in the Guess homeland.

    Call me a Crusty Old Soul Trapped in a Youthful Exterior (or "Herb" for short) but there is something deeply
    wrong with providing a service where you can have "Uppity Kids Spanked Guilt Free!"; even if it does drive SSS
    "Is there anything Lamer than the Holiday Season?" theme is producing sluggish results
    "Boring? Yeah, well at least we weren't Kohls"
    After a brief reconciliation, Jo has broken a bottle on the edge of the board room table, threatening to cut up Ann's
    "pretty face"
    Just Not Good
In a topsy-turvy, mixed up world the reliability with which Kohl's Turnaround disappoints investors is comforting, in
a way.
First positive comps in 4 months. It's a nice time to get relatively hot but it would be nicer still, for LTD longs, if
"hot" meant better than mid-single digits

Great. Now the image of Meehan doing his Flashdance-Inspired rendition of "It's Raining Men" will be in my head
all day

Shoot the Piano Player.
"Dude, we TOTALLY spaced on Christmas. Woa…. That's intense"
Wouldn't a claymation special on the traditional holiday monkey knife fights help these guys? Sharper Image will
be looking for another opponent in our proposed PPV ThunderDome retail fight to the death
Ross plugging away with good comps, under the radar, all year.

"We thought guiding down to negative 13% would be enough. We really did. Hey, do you guys know anyone
who wants a Ozone-Spewing air filter? How about a Razor Scooter? Anyone?"
Had already taken down expectations. Remains optimistic and expects to "take share" for the holidays. The
Game (in this case a fight to the death with WalMart) is afoot.
I almost feel bad for cos who come in flat this time of year. I mean, wouldn't have rather failed gloriously? Too
much work to just do "the same as last year".

"Prices low enough for the jobless citizens of the communities we have destroyed to soothe themselves by
suckling at the sweet American teet of consumerism. Get a discount when you sign up for a Walmart credit
                                                                             Macke's Retail Roundup
                                                                        Same Store Sales Comps for October 2005

  Company                   Ticker      Estimate Actual Over / Under                                                          Comments
Abercrombie                ANF         15.6     31.0    15.40        "Can you PLEASE stop killing our stock now? PLEASE??!!!"
Aeropostale                ARO         (2.7)    (2.5)   0.20         Preannounces an inline quarter of 46-cents. So… things are "not great" but at least "sort of in control"
                                                                     These colors don't run, bub. Co guides to 45 or 46 cents for Q3, up from prior 43 or 44. You tell those Evil Axis fellas to
American Eagle             AEOS        10.5     17.3    6.80
                                                                     keep on mosyin' along now, lest they be lookin' for a tall glass of Whoop Ass.
                                                                     It's going to take more than one month to assuage my wife, the former Miss Anne Taylor. "Why should I change my
Ann Taylor                 ANN         (1.1)    1.2     2.30         name?" she asks "It was a perfectly fine name until these no talent ass-clowns lost the feel for their customer base and
                                                                     became a specialty also-ran."
                                                                     Kate Moss is on the cover of Vanity Fair which asks the question: "Can Kate come back?". Yeah… nothing hurts a super
Bebe Stores                BEBE        3.0      2.1     (0.90)
                                                                     model like rumors of drugs and sex.
                                                                     Co mentions lower customer count but says those shoppers are showing "larger baskets". Presumably unnusually large
Big Lots                   BLI         1.5      4.8     3.30
                                                                     shoes, as well.
                                                                     May want to re-think their "You get what you pay for." promotion; hires an exec from Blockbuster as new CIO… Not the
BJ's Wholesale             BJ          5.2      2.9     (2.30)
                                                                     first place I would have looked (though they guy may be great, if he got out of BBI before infection).
Bombay Co                  BBA         (1.4)    0.6     2.00         Back by special request: "Alllliii, Bomb(eye)ay… Allli, Bomb(eye)a….!"
                                                                     Chico's makes it a clean sweep for the quarter, beating estimates by more than a full touchdown. And, of course,
Chicos FAS                 CHS         10.3     17.9    7.60
                                                                     remaining un-discouraged.
                                                                     Co guides up for the quarter, citing the success of a new "Are you really looking to save money on your children, you
Children's Place           PLCE        3.1      13.0    9.90
                                                                     inhuman bastard?" promotion leading to better high-end sales
Christopher and                                                      Welcome to Macke's Retail Round-Up, Christopher. Around here negative comps are a miss, even if you beat
                           CBK         (2.4)    (2.0)   0.40
Banks                                                                estimates. Sorry, dude… and, again, welcome!
Claire's Stores            CLE         5.4      9.0     3.60         Plastic is timeless.

Costco                     COST        7.4       10.0      2.60
                                                                         Gas responsible for 2% of this beat; Cost cites success of "Buy Gas, get crate of Ramen Noodles for $4" promotion
CVS Corp                   CVS         6.1       5.6       (0.50)        The bookies win as 50 basis points doesn't even cover the juice.
                                                                         The Black Knight of Retail! Entirely unaware that department stores are dead. 22 stores effected by hurricanes in
Dillard's                  DDS         0.2       8.0       7.80
                                                                         October. Impressive performance, overall.
                                                                         Company "continues to assess the hurricane damage". So, not only are they blaming the weather, they are slow about it.
Dollar General             DG          2.4       0.4       (2.00)
                                                                         It's the 4th Q, dudes… time to make the doughnuts.
Dress Barn                 DBRN        2.0       10.0      8.00          Great numbers for newcomer Dress Barn. Pier-One… you better step it up, fella.
Family Dollar              FDO         2.1       3.1       1.00          Fido is no dog! The co beats SSS est for all three months, albeit not by much.
                                                                         Blaming it on the rain which, frankly, is making them look fairly silly in light of Dillards. "God made the hurricanes, you
Federated                  FD          0.9       (0.7)     (1.60)
                                                                         guys decided to do those buy-outs by yourselves."
Fred's                     FRED        (0.2)     2.5       2.70          The discounters are looking fairly strong this month… Hmmmm….
                                                                         Co is putting their growth hopes in a new division targeting women over 35. Here's to you, Mrs. Robinson. I hope you
Gap                        GPS         (5.4)     (5.0)     0.40
                                                                         buy a lot of khaki.

                                                                         Co reports 52 cents vs. 37cent estimates. By way of press release says "We are licking our finger and saucily placing it
Guess?                     GES         6.8       12.3      5.50
                                                                         on our backside… Hissssssssssssssss… we are hot"
                                                                         New co-branding deal with BALCO paying off already! 10-year-old and under division bench press record of 375lbs
Gymboree                   GYMB        5.4       18.0      12.60
                                                                         raising some eyebrows.

                                                                         Co guides to low end of low-ball guidance range. I was long HOTT this Spring with the logic that it couldn't get any
Hot Topic                  HOTT        (4.5)     (5.7)     (1.20)
                                                                         worse… "Hey" I mulled whist sniffing the rose of ill-fated romance "I can tell that this stock has some real 'oomph' under
                                                                         that scabby, tattooed, twice-convicted exterior" . Let this be a lesson on matters of both heart and wallet.
JC Penny                   JCP         1.5       2.4       0.90          This is sort of what a department store turnaround looks like. Wow… 2.4%. Nice. *yawn.
                                                                         Jo & Ann are back in stride after some hurt feelings in recent months. Nothing says "I still love you" like a surprise
Jo-Ann Stores              JAS         (0.5)     3.4       3.90
                                                                         positive SSS number.
                                                                         Huge numbers for a newcomer name to Macke's Retail Round-up. Hott Topic snarling that the new kids are "Lame kiss-
Jos. A Banks               JOSB        8.5       16.2      7.70
                                                                         ups" just like everyone else.
Kohl's                     KSS         4.0       6.2       2.20          Rumored to be hiring Red Hot Chilli Peppers for Holiday party ("Suck my Kiss" )
Limited                    LTD         (3.3)     (4.0)     (0.70)        Remember when the Victoria's Secret web-cast was a big deal? Now it's not.
Lowes                      LOW                             0.00
Men's Warehouse            MW          2.8       6.7       3.90          "Hurricanes? Baby, as far as we're concerned it's only raining men! Wait… let us rephrase that…"
Neiman-Marcus              NMG.A       0.0                 0.00
Nordstrom                  JWN         3.9       6.4       2.50          Almost looks like a typo when you plug that number in for a department store. That'll do, Nordie… that'll do.
                                                                         Customer surveys indicate that PSUN customers are "bummed out and stuff by wars" but, happily for PSUN, are
Pacific Sunwear            PSUN        4.6       7.9       3.30
                                                                         unaware of any current military activities affecting the country.
                                                                         When asked if they were excited about beating estimates for a change, Pier 1 motioned you closer, it's voice too weak to
Pier 1 Imports             PIR         (14.0)    (10.4)    3.60          carry. You put your ear by it's mouth and a reedy voice that seems to house all the agony in the world says "Please…
                                                                         kill…. Us."

                                                                         Misses by well over a mile, takes EPS down to 25-26cents vs. 29c est and reports higher-than-expected inventory
Ross Stores                ROST        4.3       (7.0)     (11.30)
                                                                         shortages. This is our Triple Crown of Crap stock watch name of the day
Saks                       SKS         1.4       4.6       3.20          Another department store making Federated look silly.
                                                                         Free tip to Sharper Image Mgmt: Lower the SSS guidance for November to "0%"… you'll beat the estimates if you sell
Sharper Image              SHRP        (11.3)    (18.0)    (6.70)
                                                                         just one fake air filter!
                                                                         I'm still not counting this as a SSS "Beat" (it's negative) but the co also guides higher for the quarter, boosting the range
Talbots                    TLB         (1.6)     (0.3)     1.30
                                                                         to 35-36 cents vs. prior 30-34.
Target                     TGT         4.4       5.7       1.30          Target continues to chug away.
TJX Cos                    TJX         1.2       (2.0)     (3.20)        Na-na-na-na Na-na-na-na TJ-Missed. Again. Co earns 34 cents vs. Street estimates for 37.
                                                                         Missed on front end (read: non-pharmacy) sales. Looks as though I'm the only one who really *needed* an alarm clock
Walgreen                   WAG         7.5       6.5       (1.00)
                                                                         that beams the time on the ceiling.
                                                                         Not to be all Mr. Negative Guy or anything but WalMart started promoting with Christmas Aggression in early October (as
Wal-Mart                   WMT         3.4       4.3       0.90          opposed to after Black Friday last year). It's too early to suggest a good Christmas for all based on WMT's eeking out a
                                                                         good number.
                                                                Macke's Retail Roundup
                                                           Same Store Sales Comps for September 2005

   Company                     Ticker   Estimate   Actual    Over / Under                                                Comments
                                                                            "Buy Trampy Low-Ride Pants; get Free lower-back Tattoo" great back-to-school promo.
Abercrombie                     ANF       16.4     21.0          4.60       Your specialty retail Stock of the Day
                                                                            French-sounding name inspired the chain to promote undersized white t-shirts with pre-
Aeropostale                    ARO        0.7      (4.2)        (4.90)      Yellow Stained Armpits & the stench of stale smoke
American Eagle                 AEOS       10.7     13.0          2.30       "U-S-A…. U-S-A". Surprise winner for the month… back on track?
                                                                            After a lousy 04 and 05 for ANN, Mrs. Jeffmacke (formerly "Anne Taylor") now seeking to
Ann Taylor                     ANN        1.6      (2.7)        (4.30)      change her maiden name
Bebe Stores                    BEBE       12.3     12.3          0.00       Facing sharp mark-downs on their line of "Kate Moss Party Wear", spoon necklaces
                                                                            Closing 170 of their stores "to improve profits"; Street may have been hoping for a plan to
Big Lots                        BLI       0.4       2.9          2.50       close "all of 'em", judging by the stock action lately
BJ's Wholesale                   BJ       4.8       3.8         (1.00)      Meehan still insisting on paying full-retail
Bombay Co                       BBA       3.6      (1.6)        (5.20)      Not even Dr. Bombay, Samantha's worlock doctor in Bewitched, could save these guys.
Chicos FAS                      CHS       14.7     15.8          1.10       For the 9th time in the last 10 months, Chico is not, in fact, discouraged.
                                                                            Now that I have Children (plural), I'm amazed that anyone has the energy to shop at this
Children's Place               PLCE       2.3       2.0         (0.30)      place.
Claire's Stores                CLE        5.4       8.0          2.60       Rising price of plastics whacking the cheap jewelry sector? No way, baby!

                                                                            Little discussed fact about announcements like Cost's "we plan to buy back 1B in stock!": it's
Costco                         COST       6.7      11.0          4.30       not actually a commitment to buy ANY shares. Good sales, whining about consumers

CVS Corp                        CVS       6.2       6.0         (0.20)      ".2% of our customers opted to take naps, vs. our fine, American, Mood-'stabilizing' drugs"
Dillard's                       DDS      (1.7)                   1.70
Dollar General                  DG        1.2       2.5          1.30       36 stores still closed after Katrina
                                                                            See's October sales up 1-3%. Check the coverage of their earnings release from earlier this
Family Dollar                   FDO       1.3       2.6          1.30       week to see why this "beat" won't much matter for the stock
                                                                            Don't believe the sales beat; FD announcing disappointing results for Macy's and Bloomie's,
                                                                            citing: hurricanes, reduced consumer spending, higher prices and, by implication, the "super
                                                                            stupid idea that we could make more money by aggregating all the department store chains
Federated                        FD       0.6       1.3          0.70       in America"
                                                                            Taking a folksy "Wait and see" attitude towards near-term sales trend. Which retail stocks
Fred's                         FRED      (2.0)     (1.4)         0.60       should we buy while we're waiting, Fred?
Gap                             GPS      (7.2)     (6.0)         1.20       Co is "Very disappointed", despite beat. Not "surprised" but disappointed.
                                                                            Paris Hilton's stint as a Guess? Girl has ended before it even seemed to begin. "Ummm…
Guess?                         GES        3.1      14.2         11.10       you can keep the pants, Paris"
Gymboree                       GYMB       0.4      10.0          9.60       "Upgrade to a Smarter Kid this School Year" is irresistible to parents
                                                                            This settles it, no more 8x10 glossy autographing sessions at these stores for me until they
Hot Topic                      HOTT      (6.4)     (5.6)         0.80       stop sucking like an Electrolux every month
                                                                            Boosts numbers for 3rd & 4th Q. Vows to "Dance on the fresh earth of Federated's over-
JC Penny                        JCP       1.5       1.4         (0.10)      levered grave!"
                                                                            The infighting is getting ugly… Ann now blaming Jo's "Back to School Butchwear" idea for
Jo-Ann Stores                   JAS      (1.0)      0.2          1.20       some sales
                                                                            Finding the world to be a more angry place w/out Target corp's Mervyn's division to kick
Kohl's                         KSS        2.4      (0.2)        (2.60)      around anymore
Limited                        LTD       (2.0)     (2.0)         0.00       Limited at best.
Men's Warehouse                MW         5.0       5.2          0.20       Not exactly "missing" casual Friday's
Neiman-Marcus                 NMG.A       6.0       9.6          3.60       "Just keep the sales coming until the deal with the buyout group closes"
Nordstrom                      JWN        4.4       4.1         (0.30)      In retrospect Nordies didn't need to run chain-wide "Shoot the Piano Player" raffles
                                                                            Plans to use all 4% of the sales beat to hire Van Halen for the most "Bitchin' birthday party
Pacific Sunwear                PSUN       1.3       5.3          4.00       EVER!"
Pier 1 Imports                  PIR      (11.5)    (10.6)        0.90       Consider this chain before you make up your mind about Federal euthanasia
Rite Aid                       RAD        0.8       1.1          0.30       More "Bland" than "RAD"
Ross Stores                    ROST       6.1       9.0          2.90       Off-price is on-the-money in a weaker economy
Saks                            SKS       1.7       3.2          1.50       Back on track, in a department-store-esque, low single digit way

Sears, Roebuck                 SHLD       0.0       0.0          0.00       "Seriously… NO ONE wants to buy a bunch of Sears locations? We'll throw in some tools"
                                                                            Back to that euthanasia idea… couldn't we have Pier 1 and Sharper Image fight to the death
Sharper Image                  SHRP      (7.5)     (21.0)       (13.50)     on pay-per-view or something?

Stage Stores                   STGS       0.7      (2.6)        (3.30)      After setting the stage for downgrades last month, the chain is doing an encore in September

Stein Mart                     SMRT       2.2      (3.9)        (6.10)      Missing a winning PR opp by not sending old Stein inventory down to help bail out the south
Talbots                         TLB       2.3      (5.1)        (7.40)      If ANF is your specialty upside Tell of the Day, these guys are your disaster to watch
                                                                            Presumably finds Wal-Marts belated, strange move into fashion "adorable" in a Crocodile
Target                          TGT       4.9       5.6          0.70       Dundee, Fish-out-of-Water kind of way
                                                                            Cuts estimates, borrows from Jimmy Carter's "Malaise" speech by way of explanation.
TJX Cos                         TJX       1.7       0.0         (1.70)      ("Psst… it didn't work for Jimmy")
                                                                            After I called their top last summer, the company requests that I say nothing positive about
Walgreen                       WAG        6.6       7.7          1.10       them under any circumstances. You got it.
                                                                            Didn't take EPS estimates down, as was expected. Another potential "Tell" and rumor has it
Wal-Mart                       WMT        3.8       3.8          0.00       that some pundits have gone positive.
                                                                 Macke's Retail Roundup
                                                             Same Store Sales Comps for August 2005

   Company                      Ticker   Estimate   Actual    Over / Under                                             Comments
Abercrombie                      ANF       18.6      24.0         5.40       Back to rocking, on the sales front. The stock fell 25% in August.
Aeropostale                      ARO        0.1      1.3          1.20       Amazing how hard a co can work to achieve flat sales.
American Eagle                  AEOS       11.9      11.8        (0.10)      Seems unpatriotic to hassle AEOS about a tenth of a percent.
Ann Taylor                       ANN        1.1      3.7          2.60       Move along… nothing to see here.
Bebe Stores                     BEBE       21.4      16.9        (4.50)      Big Miss and the stock is getting stomped, premarket. Co. reaffirms EPS estimates.
Big Lots                          BLI       0.0      0.6          0.60       Is the high price of gas causing shoppers to gravitate towards Medium and Small Lots?
BJ's Wholesale                    BJ        4.7      5.6          0.90       Meehan still unable to say the name of BJ's w/out giggling uncontrollably
Bombay Co                        BBA        4.7      11.0         6.30       Ali-Bomb(I)ay… Ali Bomb(I)ay
Chicos FAS                       CHS       12.3      14.0         1.70       Insert your own reference to "Chico and the Man" here
Children's Place                PLCE        2.6      4.0          1.40
Claire's Stores                  CLE        5.1      10.0         4.90       "cheap and plastic" still a winning combination in certain sets.
Costco                          COST        7.8      9.0          1.20       Like Home Depot and Lowes, a theoretical "winner" from Katrina
CVS Corp                         CVS        6.0      6.2          0.20       People like Drugs.
Dillard's                        DDS        0.6      2.0          1.40       Anything on the happy side of negative is good for department stores.
Dollar General                    DG        0.8      0.9          0.10       Not too long ago these guys were rocking like Elvis.
Family Dollar                    FDO       (0.5)     1.8          2.30       Ibid. Are DG and FDO engaged in mutual destruction?

Federated                        FD        2.0       1.1         (0.90)      "These synergies will allow us to achieve as much as 1% growth in our same store sales."
Fred's                          FRED      (4.0)     (3.8)         0.20       Where I come from we don't call "better than expected but still negative" a Beat.
                                                                             From the sounds of the accompanying press release, the Gap has exactly nothing ("bupkiss")
Gap                             GPS       (4.6)     (9.0)        (4.40)      working right now. Except, of course, the pending buyout.
Guess?                          GES        5.9       6.4          0.50
Gymboree                       GYMB        4.1      (1.0)        (5.10)      "Get your kid's lard-ass moving" August promotion poorly received.
                                                                             I'm still a little bitter about my experience w/ this stock. Not so much so that I'm a target
Hot Topic                       HOTT      (7.6)     (7.1)        0.50        customer but angry, nonetheless.
                                                                             The mid-line department store turnaround seems to be running out of "gas". Draw your own
JC Penny                        JCP        2.7       2.8          0.10       societal conclusions.
Jo-Ann Stores                   JAS        4.0      (2.4)        (6.40)      Jo blaming Ann's slothenly work habits and poor grooming for the miss.
Kohl's                          KSS        3.7       4.6          0.90       The turnaround remains Over until further notice.
Limited                         LTD       (1.1)     (3.0)        (1.90)      Limited again.
May Dept                        MAY       (2.4)     (2.8)        (0.40)      MAY-day… MAY-day…
Men's Warehouse                 MW         5.8       8.5          2.70       All Meehan jokes aside, MW has been putting up MONSTER numbers in '05
Neiman-Marcus                  NMG.A       5.7       8.2          2.50       Rocking on the high-end or a Neiman-Marcus specific phenomenon?
Nordstrom                       JWN        4.3       8.0          3.70       Here's one vote for "rocking on the high-end"
Pacific Sunwear                PSUN        3.6       2.6         (1.00)      Dude… bummer.
                                                                             If we aren't going to give Fred's credit for a beat we sure aren't going to had out the laurels to
Pier 1 Imports                   PIR      (14.2)    (12.4)        1.80       the House of Outbreak Monkeys
Rite Aid                        RAD        0.2        0.0        (0.20)
Ross Stores                     ROST       10.6      13.0         2.40       Slightly irregular, slightly rocking.
Saks                             SKS       1.6       (0.3)       (1.90)      As a chain, deeply confused about claims that "the high end is rocking"
Sears, Roebuck                  SHLD       0.0        0.0         0.00       "Psssst… anyone wanna buy about 150 lousy Sears buildings?"
                                                                             Diversifying from Ozone Spewing air-filters to nose hair trimmers which give occasional
Sharper Image                   SHRP      (5.2)     (14.0)       (8.80)      lobotomies. "The mental numbness means its working!"
Stage Stores                    STGS       1.2       1.5          0.30       Trying to Stage a comeback.
Stein Mart                      SMRT       4.0       5.3          1.30       Beer is Good.

                                                                             Talbots claiming that they came in "in-line with company estimates". Well, I guess we just
Talbots                          TLB       3.4       2.3         (1.10)      expected a little more of Talbots than Talbots expected from themeselves, didn't we?
Target                           TGT       5.4       6.3          0.90       Taking the steel-toed boots to Wal-Mart.
TJX Cos                          TJX       1.7       2.0          0.30       TJ-Blah
                                                                             WAG is reporting 74 stores closed in Miss and La. Figures to skew their numbers for quite a
Walgreen                        WAG        8.3       0.0         (8.30)      while
                                                                             Creating a one-stop shopping experience for people who want to pick up a 60" TV and some
Wal-Mart                        WMT        3.4       3.3         (0.10)      frozen carrots

To top