WAR IN WORLD POLITICS
Pol Sci 498.001, Fall Term 2005 Fridays 12-2 PM 7603 Haven Hall Introduction: This is a seminar intended largely for a selected group of political science majors, and one of our objectives is to experience a graduate school type seminar in which you begin the transition from consumer of knowledge to producer and consumer both. The literature on war - - its origins, etiology, conduct, and consequences -- is voluminous. Books and articles in almost every living language covering the history, ethics, exuberance, dread, genetics, culture, technology, etc. abound. While we’ll touch on most of these aspects of war in passing, our focus will be primarily on the human effort to account for war between and within territorial states in the past two centuries or so, and to predict it in the decades ahead. Rationale: The strategy behind this course is worth noting; I’ve agreed to prepare a “popular” text on the subject for the University of Michigan Press, in the sense that we hope to write a book that will help mature, concerned, intelligent readers understand what we have tried to do to explain the incidence of war, the methods we used, what regularities we have turned up, which explanations seem to stand up to the historical test, which ones clearly do not, how close we are to any sort of general explanation, where we go next, and what policy implications follow from what we think we know at this historical juncture. The plan is to embed this course into the process of writing that book, or to build the course around the book in progress. This is a bit different from the more familiar pattern in which the professor merely uses the students as “guinea pigs” to see what they find clear and interesting and where more work is needed on a more or less finished manuscript. In this case, the book is not even in the early draft stage, and as a result all of us will be involved to some degree in the writing of the first draft. Thus, each of you will not only read a fair fraction of the original research upon which the book will rest, but will be involved in evaluating that research, interpreting it, and trying to integrate the many single journal articles into more coherent integrated statements. In that sense, as noted earlier, you will be both consumers and producers of new knowledge, and when we turn to the writing assignments, the details will be clear. J David Singer jdsinger@umich.edu 763-6590 6743 Haven Hall
1
Texts: Despite the unconventional nature of this senior seminar, it will be conventional in the sense that that we will use several textbooks in common, all of which you should order online. The first is Geller and Singer Nations at War: A Scientific Study of International Conflict Cambridge University Press, 1998 and 2000, useful because it offers the most complete and up to date summary of findings from data-based research into inter-state war. Second is a “text-reader” by John Vasquez and Marie Henehan The Scientific Study of Peace and War, Lexington 1992 and updated in 1999. Here, the authors select and condense 16 of the more enduring data-based studies in the field and then offer evaluations of each on methodological grounds. No matter how limited your knowledge of social science methods now, this book will mark your transition to a post-traditional scholar who appreciates the ways in which insights can be put to the empirical-historic test and then converted into moderately compelling evidence. Third is the John Vasquez (ed.) anthology What Do We Know About War, Rowman and Littlefield, 2000, with 17 papers prepared for a conference at Vanderbilt in 1997, when that world politics program was among the best in the world, as was Michigan’s. Note that in a brief five years, personnel decisions can seriously eviscerate a great educational and research program; the good news is that reasonably decent programs can, in short order, move to the top, and I mention this here to help guide those of you who are thinking of graduate level studies in world politics. There are several other very valuable collections of a scientific, data-based sort, and among those worth owning even though I will put them on the Reserve Shelf: Bremer, Stuart and Cusack, Thomas (eds.) The Process of War: Advancing the Scientific Study, Gordon and Breach, 1995 Midlarsky, Manus (ed) Handbook of War Studies, Unwin and Hyman, 1989 Midlarsky, Manus (ed) Handbook of War Studies II, University of Michigan Press, 2000 Gochman, Charles and Alan Sabrosky (eds.) Prisoners of War? Nation-States in the Modern Era, Lexington, 1990 Singer, J David (ed) Quantitative International Politics, Free Press, 1968
While the above contain a good selection of data-based studies on war, there is a pair of quite competent books that try to summarize and integrate much of the data-based work. One of these is the Geller and Singer volume noted above, and the other is Greg Cashman’s What Causes War? Very suggestive, while indifferent to research findings is Geoffrey Blainey The Causes of War, Free Press, 1988.
2
Journals and Annuals: Rather than order texts and other volumes via local bookstores, you should buy them online; cheaper and usually faster. In today’s scientific world, the academic journal (usually published from three to twelve times per year) or annual (once per year), remain the major medium of scholarly exchange, even though electronic systems are beginning to take over. Those in world politics and international security may be divided crudely into three methodological categories: a) scientific; b) speculative; and c) policy-oriented, in their aspirations and foci. Those of a generally scientific bent usually address policy issues in a detached and value-free way, concerned more with findings, methods, and the state of the science. The five most relevant ones are: Journal of Conflict Resolution Journal of Peace Research Conflict Management and Peace Science International Studies Quarterly International Interactions The above group will have some speculative articles in them, whereas the next group will usually contain little else: International Security World Policy Journal SAIS Review World Politics International Organization British Journal of International Studies Among the more useful journals (in English) with an explicit policy preoccupation are International Security, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, and Orbis, and there are several such in just about every Indo-European or Oriental language as well. For a more complete listing of journals in all three categories, as well as the early contents of those in group (a) above, see LaBarr and Singer, The Study of International Politics: A Guide to the Sources for the Student, Teacher, and Research, (Clio Press, 1976). As noted, specific journal articles will seldom be assigned. Rather, as you become familiar with the journal contents, you’ll be able to locate articles that are most appropriate to the weekly topics at hand, and you’ll be expected to introduce their contents into our discussions.
3
Abstracts: For a one-semester course like this, there will certainly not be enough time to become very familiar with these many journals and annuals. But you can find abstracts and summaries of many journal articles that deal with war and peace in Peace Research Abstracts, edited by Hannah Newcomb in the Canadian Peace Research Institute in Oakview, Ontario. While my aim is to have you spend much of your time browsing in the journals, especially those of a more scientific bent, I should alert you to two books that will reduce that time considerably by providing a one-plus page abstract of all (almost all!) data-based studies in world politics since the beginning of the QIP movement through 1991. These are Susan Jones and Singer Beyond Conjecture in IP (Peacock, 1972) and Brian Gibbs and Singer Empirical Knowledge on WP (Greenwood, 1993) and both are on Reserve. In this connection, you’ll need to learn how to write abstracts, as have all my students for many years. Thus, on Friday 7th October you’ll turn in an abstract of 1-2 pages of a journal article published in the past two years in which the author(s) try to articulate and put to the empirical-historical test one or another model that purports to explain one or another explanation of – not a single, given, war, but – a particular class of war over the past two centuries. It will be marked and graded, but since each of you will get an A or A- grade (even if you need more than a single try) the grade will not affect your final course grade. A check list with examples will be distributed early in the term, and by this assignment each of you will know how to read, comprehend, and partially evaluate a piece of scientific, data-based research. Contemporary Case Studies: While it is true that a single case study, by itself, provides little basis for accurate generalization, it can be quite instructive if it is examined in a way that is a) fairly operational; and b) explicitly comparative vis-à-vis several/many other case studies that belong to the same class of cases, and c) considered in the context of more general findings that are reported in the literature. As this term gets underway we are witnessing a number of civil as well as interstate wars, along with several disputes that might well erupt into war before too long. Thus, most weeks we will devote part of the seminar to a discussion of the unfolding circumstances in these and a comparison with other historical (or anticipated) cases in the context of existing general knowledge regarding the etiology of modern (post-Napoleonic) war.
4
Weekly Routine: For most of the term, there will be specific readings assigned from one or more of the texts, and in addition you’ll be expected to read about 3 or 4 articles from the journals, or chapters from relevant book-length studies – many of which are on Reserve – all more or less related to that week’s theme. There will be little lecturing and no long reports from seminar members; this is a graduate-type seminar. Rather, we will try to carry on a lively discussion, one prerequisite of which will be full preparation via the assigned and elected reading. Relate your participation to that literature as fully as you can, while also attending to oral precision, conceptual clarity, careful reasoning, and brevity; note also that despite the utter seriousness of the subject, playfulness is often conducive to rich insights and relaxed conversation. Worth remembering is that you will know more of the history and literature on several topics than anyone else, so silence is not justified by the notion that everyone else will know more than you! For each week, as noted, there will be a mix of assigned and independently selected reading. One purpose of the latter is to encourage browsing in the journals and in the larger literature, and while I’ll be happy to make suggestions, it is important for you to do this largely on your own. As you do the required and optional reading, try to move back and forth between specific cases and scholarly generalizations, and be prepared to discuss these and other issues at every session, following my introductory remarks. 9 September: Introduction and overview; assigned reading handout. 16 September: Read Singer “Effective Writing in the Social Sciences” and “Variables, Indicators and Data: The Measurement Problem in Macro-Political Research” 23 September: Research Methods and Approach Read Nations at War, Chap. 1 and The Scientific Study … Introduction, Conclusion, Appendix, and Bibliographic Essay 30 September: Resources and War Read What do we Know about War, Chaps. 4,5,12, and Scientific Study, Chap. 2, 11, 12 and 13; Nations at War, Chap. 7 7 October: Alignments and War Read What do we Know… Chaps. 6, 7, 9 and 10; Scientific Study, Chap. 1, 7, 8 (abstract due) Alignments, Resources, and War Read What do We Know, Chap. 8; Scientific Study Chaps 3 and 4; Nations at War, Chap 2 (midterm assignment due)
14 October:
5
21 October:
Behavior, Interaction, and War Read Scientific Study, Chaps. 5, 6, 9 and 10; What do we Know, Chaps. 3, 11, 13, 14; Nations at War, Chap. 2 Levels of Social Aggregation and War Read Nations at War, Chaps. 3, 5, 6 and 9
28 October:
4& 11 November: Integrating all that Evidence (Veterans’ Day) Read What do we (think we) Know About War, Chaps. 15, 16 and 17 25 November: Individual Research Designs (for a partial explanation of one class of war) due and will be discussed. 2 & 9 December: Evaluating our Search
War In World Politics (Pol Sci 498.001) Written Assignments Midterm Assignment; due 28 October, about 5 pages, double spaced: At this point in the course, most of the assigned reading deals with our effort to account for war between/among territorial states. Yet we claim to be interested in also explaining war within the states in the global system. This, then, is a good time to ask how much of what we think we know about interstate war (which has been subjected to a fair amount of systematic research) might apply to possible explanations of intra-state war (which has received a great deal of anecdotal investigation, but very little systematic, scientific attention). Thus, you will identify any group or class of intra-state wars over the past two centuries and then describe those findings from the work on inter-state war that, in your judgment, help account for that class of intra-state wars of interest to you. Then tell us why you find these findings helpful. This will account for about 20% your grade. Final Assignment; due 2 or 9 December, about 5 pages, double spaced: In this assignment, you’ll be expected to write a research design that you think could really advance our understanding of the etiology of any class/type of war that you think is likely to menace some discernible group
6
of human beings in the next two or three decades. Begin with a description of that class of war, the people who’d be involved as victims and protagonists, and why this seems serious to you. Then go on to lay out a research design by which you/one might begin to figure out how come this class of wars has occurred or might occur, which are the most powerful variables, how you’d measure them, where you’d find the data by which you’d be constructing your indicators, what sorts of statistical analyses you’d use, and how your findings might be useful to those concerned with policy, be they in the establishment or critical of it. This will account for about 40% of your grade, while the midterm paper will account for perhaps 20%, and the remaining 40% will rest on the quality and frequency of your participation in this seminar. If you want to go pass/fail, do investigate the possibilities.
7