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IST Statewide Faculty Retreat 10-11 May 2010 SRA CAPSTONE COURSE Jake Graham Topics for Discussion Why a Capstone Course for SRA Possible Course Options Course Design Knowledge, Skills and Abilities (KSAs) Candidate Scenarios Resources Why a Capstone Course for SRA? Fill gap in current course offering Inspired by Army War College “War-Game Exercise” - Hank Foley SRA Capstone should: Focus on information within the context of SRA. Be grounded in current social trends, threats and vulnerabilities. Stress individual and team analysis processes. Emphasize practical application. Be an enriching learning experience! Possible Course Options Two-semester Option: Leveling course & Exercise Leveling Course intended to teach/review the required KSAs Exercise puts them into practice in semester-long command post exercise One-semester, split course Option: Leveling up front and Exercise in second half Same as above only completed in one semester One-semester, integrated Option: Teach/review KSA along the way KSAs are re-enforced while exercise is being conducted Preferred Option One-semester, integrated Option: Teach/review KSA along the way: KSAs are re-enforced while exercise is being conducted Most difficult of the three options to design, but once complete, easiest to execute; KSAs are tailored to specific aspects of the exercise in a cascading fashion; Allows students to utilize KSA while fresh and re-enforces learning through application; Builds throughout the exercise; and Culminates in final report/out-brief drawing on all previous KSAs. Probable Design Model SRA Capstone Exercise - Counterterrorism Scenario - Convert realistic information/intelligence reports into actionable intelligence KSAs: • Intelligence analysis process • Collaborative work, team decision making • Hypothesis generation • Uncertainty, prediction, tacit knowledge • Evidence marshalling: information extraction & knowledge discovery • Confidence intervals • Bottom line up front reports • Executive Summary Briefings • 6 SNA charts in Analyst Notebook Key Analytic Techniques Frame your problem. Visualize your data. Challenge your assumptions. Generate multiple hypotheses. Search for inconsistent data. Develop indicators to track over time. Check the reliability of the key evidence. Sherman Kent’s Intelligence Analysis Types Estimative Intelligence Proactive Interpretative Time Focus Intelligence Explanatory Intelligence Descriptive Reactive Intelligence Data-Driven Conceptually Thought Process Driven Strategic, Tactical and Operational Analysis Internal: Strategic External: Balance Balance Opportunities vs. capabilities vs. Assessing Long Term, Big Requirements constraints Picture Vision and Goals Operational Assessing the Day-to-Day Activities and Functions Needed to Implement the Strategy Tactical Assessing Step-by-Step Actions, Timetables, and Responsible Individuals Inside-Out and Outside-In Thinking Case Organization The World Structured Brainstorming Six Simple Rules: Write it down! Give yourself enough time. Never censor anyone else’s ideas. Be specific about the purpose of the session. Involve at least one “outsider” in the process. Capture key takeaways at the end. Summarize the key insights in a short note after the session. Key Assumptions Check Definition: An explicit exercise to list the key assumptions that underlie the analysis. The Method: List the working assumptions that underlie the analysis. Assess whether each is solid, needs caveats, or is unsupported. If unsupported, assess how this would affect the analysis and key decisions. Refine the assumptions as necessary. Key Assumptions Check Analysis of Competing Hypotheses The identification of a complete set of alternative hypotheses. The systematic evaluation of data that is consistent and inconsistent with each hypotheses. The rejection of hypotheses that contain too much inconsistent data. Indicators & warning Definition: A pre-established set of observable phenomena that are periodically reviewed to track events, spot emerging trends, and warn of unanticipated change. Good Indicators are: Observable, therefore collectible. Valid measurements of the phenomena. Reliable across collection methods and collectors. Stable across time. Unique “pointer” or part of a set of “pointers.” I&W Examples ACH Software Tool Enter multiple hypotheses Indicate consistency w/ hypothesis (I, N, NA, C) Enter evidence items I2 Analyst Notebook Candidate Scenarios Black Sunday: Attack on a major U.S. sporting event Dirty Bomb: Improvised Radiological Device Piracy on the High Seas: Cruise-line Take-over Nuclear non-proliferation: al Qaeda's search for a Nuclear Weapon Insider Threat: Infiltration of U.S. Intelligence Lights-out: Cyber Attack on the Grid Dangerous Partners: The Nexus of Terrorism and Crime Border Security: Preventing WMD Entry into the U.S. Catch me if you can: Identity Theft and other dirty tricks Banker’s Dozen: Attack on Wall Street Funding Terrorism Show me the Money… Red-Cell/Blue-Cell Exercise 24 Evidence Marshalling 25 26 Resources Richards J. Heuer’s Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (PDF available free on the web or order it from www.pherson.org) Analytic Technique Checklists (available on request for KAC, ACH, Brainstorming, and Indicators) US Government-developed ACH software (download from www.pherson.org) Handbook of Analytic Tools and Techniques (available from www.pherson.org) Heuer/Pherson’s Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis (target publication date is December 2009) Questions?
"Proposed SRA Capston - Slide 1"