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Proposed SRA Capston - Slide 1

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					IST Statewide Faculty Retreat
             10-11 May 2010
                  SRA CAPSTONE COURSE
                            Jake Graham
Topics for Discussion
  Why  a Capstone Course for SRA
  Possible Course Options
  Course Design
  Knowledge, Skills and Abilities (KSAs)
  Candidate Scenarios
  Resources
Why a Capstone Course for SRA?
     Fill gap in current course offering
     Inspired by Army War College “War-Game Exercise”
                                        - Hank Foley
  SRA Capstone should:
     Focus on information within the context of SRA.
     Be grounded in current social trends, threats and
      vulnerabilities.
     Stress individual and team analysis processes.
     Emphasize practical application.
     Be an enriching learning experience!
Possible Course Options
    Two-semester Option: Leveling course & Exercise
        Leveling Course intended to teach/review the required
         KSAs
        Exercise puts them into practice in semester-long
         command post exercise
    One-semester, split course Option: Leveling up
     front and Exercise in second half
        Same as above only completed in one semester
    One-semester, integrated Option: Teach/review KSA
     along the way
        KSAs are re-enforced while exercise is being conducted
Preferred Option
    One-semester, integrated Option: Teach/review KSA along
     the way: KSAs are re-enforced while exercise is being
     conducted
        Most difficult of the three options to design, but once
         complete, easiest to execute;
        KSAs are tailored to specific aspects of the exercise in a
         cascading fashion;
        Allows students to utilize KSA while fresh and re-enforces
         learning through application;
        Builds throughout the exercise; and
        Culminates in final report/out-brief drawing on all previous
         KSAs.
      Probable Design Model
                                               SRA Capstone
                                               Exercise
                                               - Counterterrorism Scenario

                                               - Convert realistic information/intelligence reports
                                                  into actionable intelligence




KSAs:
•   Intelligence analysis process
•   Collaborative work, team decision making
•   Hypothesis generation
•   Uncertainty, prediction, tacit knowledge
•   Evidence marshalling: information
    extraction & knowledge discovery
•   Confidence intervals
•   Bottom line up front reports
•   Executive Summary Briefings
•      6
    SNA charts in Analyst Notebook
Key Analytic Techniques

    Frame your problem.
    Visualize your data.
    Challenge your assumptions.
    Generate multiple hypotheses.
    Search for inconsistent data.
    Develop indicators to track over time.
    Check the reliability of the key evidence.
Sherman Kent’s Intelligence Analysis Types
                                                                      Estimative
                                                                      Intelligence
  Proactive

                                                     Interpretative
      Time Focus


                                                     Intelligence



                                      Explanatory
                                      Intelligence



                       Descriptive
  Reactive             Intelligence



                   Data-Driven                                   Conceptually
                                  Thought Process                Driven
Strategic, Tactical and Operational Analysis


 Internal:                         Strategic                     External: Balance
 Balance                                                         Opportunities vs.
 capabilities vs.                 Assessing Long Term, Big       Requirements
 constraints                      Picture Vision and Goals


                               Operational
                                Assessing the Day-to-Day
                             Activities and Functions Needed
                               to Implement the Strategy

                                      Tactical
                    Assessing Step-by-Step Actions, Timetables, and
                                Responsible Individuals
Inside-Out and Outside-In Thinking

                         Case



                         Organization



                         The World
Structured Brainstorming
Six Simple Rules:
   Write it down!
   Give yourself enough time.
   Never censor anyone else’s ideas.
   Be specific about the purpose of the session.
   Involve at least one “outsider” in the process.
   Capture key takeaways at the end.
   Summarize the key insights in a short note
    after the session.
Key Assumptions Check
Definition: An explicit exercise to list the key
 assumptions that underlie the analysis.

The Method:
   List the working assumptions that underlie the
    analysis.
   Assess whether each is solid, needs caveats, or is
    unsupported.
   If unsupported, assess how this would affect the
    analysis and key decisions.
   Refine the assumptions as necessary.
Key Assumptions Check
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

    The identification of a complete set of alternative
     hypotheses.
    The systematic evaluation of data that is consistent
     and inconsistent with each hypotheses.
    The rejection of hypotheses that contain too much
     inconsistent data.
Indicators & warning
Definition: A pre-established set of observable phenomena that
 are periodically reviewed to track events, spot emerging
 trends, and warn of unanticipated change.

Good Indicators are:
 Observable, therefore collectible.
 Valid measurements of the phenomena.
 Reliable across collection methods and collectors.
 Stable across time.
 Unique “pointer” or part of a set of “pointers.”
I&W Examples
ACH Software Tool      Enter
                      multiple
                    hypotheses




                             Indicate
                          consistency
                                w/
                           hypothesis
                          (I, N, NA, C)


     Enter
    evidence
     items
I2 Analyst Notebook
    Candidate Scenarios
   Black Sunday: Attack on a major U.S. sporting event
   Dirty Bomb: Improvised Radiological Device
   Piracy on the High Seas: Cruise-line Take-over
   Nuclear non-proliferation: al Qaeda's search for a Nuclear
    Weapon
   Insider Threat: Infiltration of U.S. Intelligence
   Lights-out: Cyber Attack on the Grid
   Dangerous Partners: The Nexus of Terrorism and Crime
   Border Security: Preventing WMD Entry into the U.S.
   Catch me if you can: Identity Theft and other dirty tricks
   Banker’s Dozen: Attack on Wall Street
Funding Terrorism

     Show me the Money…
             Red-Cell/Blue-Cell
                 Exercise


24
     Evidence Marshalling




25
26
Resources
    Richards J. Heuer’s Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (PDF
     available free on the web or order it from www.pherson.org)
    Analytic Technique Checklists (available on request for KAC,
     ACH, Brainstorming, and Indicators)
    US Government-developed ACH software (download from
     www.pherson.org)
    Handbook of Analytic Tools and Techniques
     (available from www.pherson.org)
    Heuer/Pherson’s Structured Analytic Techniques for
     Intelligence Analysis (target publication date is December 2009)
Questions?

				
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