Get documents about "Mortgage Rates in Houston
Description
Mortgage Rates in Houston document sample
Document Sample
Developer Conference
Washington DC • September 11, 2007
Lance Ramella
Senior Managing Director
(773) 824-2485
Mike Timmerman, SRA
Managing Director
(239) 649-7733 x203
HANLEY WOOD MARKET INTELLIGENCE
www.hanleywood.com
www.builderinfostore.com
Hanley Wood – A Network Unlike Any Other
Largest business-to-business media network serving North America's
residential and commercial construction industries.
Print & electronic media
publications including Builder and
Big Builder 1 Business Media
14 Tradeshows and events
annually 2 Exhibitions
Custom publications and brand
communications 3 Marketing
4
Leading provider of information
and analysis to homebuilders, Market Intelligence
lenders & manufacturers
Mission Statement &
Overview
Mission Statement: To be the premier provider of high quality market
information, analysis and consulting services to the U.S. residential
development industry.
Company Overview
Nation’s leading data
provider for residential
development industry
insight:
Market insight and analysis Analytics
and Consulting
Track 75 housing markets innovative:
information products and reports
Complete Integrated
information:
Solution Detailed active and proposed data
financing product design site acquisition
Market Intelligence
Division
Provide data, analysis, published
research, software, and consulting
services to the residential home building
and development industry
Products designed to meet the needs of
today’s residential real estate and
building professional including:
Information Products
Published Research
Custom Consulting
Services
Cover top 75 markets across United
States
Some Products….
Proposed Project Data
Active Project Data
GIS Mapping w/Aerials
Demographics
Digital Parcel Data Layer
Resale Data
Export Custom Reports
Consulting Services
Strategic Offerings
Due Diligence
Site Specific Analysis
Market & Customer Strategy
Market Overview Presentations
Custom Consulting
Absorption Analysis/Infrastructure
Financing Assistance
Active Adult / Senior Housing
Highest and Best Use Analysis
Market Feasibility Studies
Strategic Planning and Consulting
Consumer Research
Repositioning Recommendations
Consumer
Confidence
Currently
150 United States 105.3
140 Pacific 117.8
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
1Q00
2Q00
3Q00
4Q00
1Q01
2Q01
3Q01
4Q01
1Q02
2Q02
3Q02
4Q02
1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
4Q03
1Q04
2Q04
3Q04
4Q04
1Q05
2Q05
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
United States Pacific
Source: The Conference Board
GDP Growth:
Slowing to a Below-
Trend Pace
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
:9 0
:9 1
:9 2
:9 3
:9 5
:9 6
:9 7
:9 8
:0 0
:0 1
:0 2
:0 3
:0 5
:0 6
:0 7
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Fannie Mae forecast
Job Growth:
Trends Down, But Still
Good
2Q07 = 1.47%
Y-O-Y non-farm employment
not seasonally adjusted
4%
2%
0%
-1.6% -1.5%
-2%
89Q2
90Q2
91Q2
92Q2
93Q2
94Q2
95Q2
96Q2
97Q2
98Q2
99Q2
00Q2
01Q2
02Q2
03Q2
04Q2
05Q2
06Q2
07Q2
Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Jul-92
Jan-93
Jul-93
Jan-94
Jul-94
Jan-95
Jul-95
FRM
ARM
Jan-96
Jul-96
Jan-97
Mortgage Rates
Jul-97
Federal Funds
Jan-98
Jul-98
Jan-99
Jul-99
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Source: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation; Federal Reserve
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
FRM – 6.57%
ARM – 5.67%
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Federal Funds – 5.25%
August 2007 Statistics
Local Housing Market Specifics
Employment Growth
Orange County-CA, Austin-TX, Houston-TX, Nashville-TN, Salt
Lake City-UT, Wilmington-NC, Raleigh-NC, Charlotte-NC, Orlando-
FL, Atlanta-GA, Louisville-KY 2007* Employment Growth
Orange County, CA – 15,300
Austin, TX – 27,900
Houston, TX – 74,000
Nashville, TN – 10,500
100,000 Salt Lake City, UT – 25,400
Wilmington, NC – 6,242
Raleigh, NC – 14,630
80,000 Charlotte, NC – 24,100
Orlando, FL – 24,700
60,000 Atlanta, GA – 43,700
Louisville, KY – 8,300
40,000
20,000
0
-20,000
-40,000
-60,000
,C
A TX ,T
X TN UT ,N
C
,N
C
,N
C FL ,G
A KY
n, e, y, o, e,
n ty us
ti ton hvill it to n leigh tte nd nta ill
ou A us s eC ing a arlo rla tl a isv
C Ho Na ak ilm R Ch O A
Lo
u
ge l tL W
an Sa
Or
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
Note: 2007* is projection
Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence Market Snapshots
Population Growth
Orange County-CA, Austin-TX, Houston-TX, Nashville-TN, Salt
Lake City-UT, Wilmington-NC, Raleigh-NC, Charlotte-NC, Orlando-
FL, Atlanta-GA, Louisville-KY
2007* Population Growth
150,000 Orange County, CA – 8,639
Austin, TX – 43,943
Houston, TX – 108,973
120,000 Nashville, TN – 29,287
Salt Lake City, UT – 16,864
Wilmington, NC – 12,991
Raleigh, NC – 38,148
90,000 Charlotte, NC – 47,776
Orlando, FL – 77,158
Atlanta, GA – 126,925
60,000 Louisville, KY – 9,200
30,000
0
A X X N T C C C L A Y
,C ,T ,T , T ty, U ,N , N te, N ,F , G lle , K
ty tin on ille i n
gto alei
gh lot do ta i
oun Aus ous t s hv k eC in a r r lan t lan uisv
C Na lt La R Ch O A
ge
H
W ilm Lo
an S a
Or
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
Note: 2007* is projection
Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence Market Snapshots
Total Permits
Orange County-CA, Austin-TX, Houston-TX, Nashville-TN, Salt
Lake City-UT, Wilmington-NC, Raleigh-NC, Charlotte-NC, Orlando-
FL, Atlanta-GA, Louisville-KY
2007* Total Permits
80,000 Orange County, CA – 5,300
Austin, TX – 19,900
Houston, TX – 67,500
Nashville, TN – 14,000
60,000 Salt Lake City, UT – 6,600
Wilmington, NC – 5,750
Raleigh, NC – 14,200
Charlotte, NC – 22,300
40,000 Orlando, FL – 24,000
Atlanta, GA – 51,600
Louisville, KY – 5,500
20,000
0
CA n, TX n, TX e, TN y, U T ,N
C NC NC o, FL GA e, K Y
, h, e, a,
nty ti
us ous t
o ill it ton ig tt nd nt ill
Co
u A s hv k eC i ng Rale harlo Or la A tla uis v
g e H Na lt La ilm C Lo
W
Or an Sa
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
Note: 2007* is projection
Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence Market Snapshots
Existing Home Price
Orange County-CA, Austin-TX, Houston-TX, Nashville-TN, Salt
Lake City-UT, Wilmington-NC, Raleigh-NC, Charlotte-NC, Orlando-
FL, Atlanta-GA, Louisville-KY
2007* Existing Home Price
Orange County, CA – $711,000
$800,000 Austin, TX – $181,500
Houston, TX – $153,900
$700,000 Nashville, TN – $178,400
Salt Lake City, UT – $225,200
$600,000 Wilmington, NC – $207,200
Raleigh, NC – $221,300
$500,000 Charlotte, NC – $202,200
Orlando, FL – $263,000
$400,000 Atlanta, GA – $172,000
Louisville, KY – $140,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
CA TX TX TN UT NC NC NC FL GA KY
ty, in, n, le, ty, n, h, e, o, a, le,
n st to vil Ci to ig ott nd nt il
ou Au us sh ke in g a le arl rla tl a isv
eC Ho Na a lm R Ch O A
Lo
u
ng lt L Wi
Or
a Sa
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
Note: 2007* is projection
Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence Market Snapshots
Existing Home Inventory
Orange County-CA, Austin-TX, Houston-TX, Nashville-TN, Salt
Lake City-UT, Raleigh-NC, Orlando-FL, Atlanta-GA, Louisville-KY
Sep.07 Existing Home Inventory
Orange County, CA – 19,649
Austin, TX – 10,700
125,000 Houston, TX – 46,898
Nashville, TN – 16,285
Salt Lake City, UT – 9,876
100,000 Raleigh, NC – 10,379
Orlando, FL – 34,274
Atlanta, GA – 121,271
75,000 Louisville, KY – 12,368
50,000
25,000
0
CA ,T
X TX ,T
N UT NC FL GA KY
,
tin ton
,
ille y, h, o, a, le ,
nty s hv Cit ig nd nt il
Co
u Au u s s ke a le r la tl a is v
Ho Na a R O A
Lo
u
g e lt L
Or an Sa
Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07
Source: HousingTracker.net
Total Net Migration Trends
Orange County-CA, Austin-TX, Houston-TX, Nashville-TN, Salt
Lake City-UT, Wilmington-NC, Raleigh-NC, Charlotte-NC, Orlando-
FL, Atlanta-GA, Louisville-KY
2007* Total Net Migration
Orange County, CA – (16,800)
150,000 Austin, TX – 30,200
Houston, TX – 43,600
Nashville, TN – 5,400
120,000 Salt Lake City, UT – 1,300
Wilmington, NC – 7,400
Raleigh, NC – 16,300
90,000 Charlotte, NC – 29,400
Orlando, FL – 34,900
Atlanta, GA – 56,300
60,000 Louisville, KY – 3,900
30,000
0
A X X N T C C C FL , GA Y
,C n,T , T le, T ty, U n, N , N te, N o, ,K
nty usti ton il i o igh lot d ta ille
ou us ashv e C ingt Rale r lan Atlan uisv
C A Ho N ak ilm Ch
a Or Lo
n ge l tL W
Or
a Sa
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*
Note: 2007* is projection
Source: Economy.com
Observations
1) Watch resale market inventory/price.
2) Limit/control investors.
3) Control inventory/incentives.
4) Look for land values to stabilize
or come down.
5) Increasing employment growth along with
higher interest rates.
7) Increasing growth management.
Development
Trends
Higher-density living
Small-lot product
Transit-oriented housing
Mixed-use developments
In-fill locations
Adaptive re-use
Next-generation MPCs
Active Adult MPCs
Developer Conference
Washington DC • September 11, 2007
Lance Ramella
Senior Managing Director
(773) 824-2485
Mike Timmerman, SRA QUESTIONS???
Managing Director
(239) 649-7733 x203
HANLEY WOOD MARKET INTELLIGENCE
www.hanleywood.com
www.builderinfostore.com
