Environmental Scan UW Tacoma external and internal issues by mmo13137

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									                       Autumn 2008 UW Tacoma
                      Environmental Scan Report

                         A Framework of Current Conditions and Projections
                           Prepared for the Strategic Planning Committee
                                            Jan 6, 2009

             This environmental scan document has been drafted by the Office of Institutional
             Research and Planning for the Strategic Planning Committee in an effort to describe
             the current internal and external conditions affecting the access mission of the campus
             defined in the UW Tacoma Strategic Plan as: “The University of Washington Tacoma
             educates diverse learners and transforms communities by expanding the boundaries of
             knowledge and discovery.”




                                                          Table of Contents


External Scan ..................................................................................................................................... 2 
             National, State and Local ..................................................................................................... 2 
             National, State and Local Projections .................................................................................. 2 
             Washington State Budget Reductions in Higher Education................................................. 2 
             Student Demand ................................................................................................................... 3 
Internal Scan ...................................................................................................................................... 4 
             Governor’s Budget Proposal for UW Tacoma in the 2009/11 Biennium ............................ 4 
             Annualized 2008-2009 FTE Projections .............................................................................. 4 
             2009-2010 Projections (data as of Jan 6, 2009) ................................................................... 5 
             2009-2010 Enrollments ........................................................................................................ 6 
             PARC Proposals and FTE .................................................................................................... 6 
             Strategic Initiatives .............................................................................................................. 7 
References .......................................................................................................................................... 8 
                             UW Tacoma: A Framework of Current Conditions and Projections
                                    Prepared for the Strategic Planning Committee
                                                     Jan 6, 2009




                                              External Scan

National, State and Local

In 2008, the national economy was mired in one of the longest recessions in U.S. history that experts now
believe began in late 2007. Downturns in the stock and housing markets, along with increased job layoffs
and unemployment, have all contributed to the current dismal economic situation. Washington State and
Pierce County have not been insulated from these disturbing trends in the national economy. Governor
Gregoire recently announced a projected $5.7 billion deficit in state revenues for the 2009/11 biennium
saying that the expected “shortfall (will be) a little more than the entire budgets for higher education and
the Department of Corrections combined.” In Pierce County, according to University of Puget Sound
professors Douglas Goodman and Bruce Mann who annually report on the condition of the local economy,
2008 saw a small overall annual increase in the economic index but a sharp reduction in the fourth quarter.
They believe that 2009 may bring the deepest downturn in 30 years.

National, State and Local Projections

Expectations for the national economy reversing its downward trend in the near future are mixed. Some
experts believe that the large amount of fiscal stimulus money already approved by Congress, along with
action by the Federal Reserve and new stimulus packages currently being drafted, will trigger an
improvement in the economy in late 2009 and throughout 2010. Conversely, other economists believe that
recovery will take much longer. According to Moody’s Economy.com chief economist Mark Zandi, “the
first six months of ’09 will be very painful, the second six months will be just painful, and 2010 will be
uncomfortable.”

Goodman and Mann project a 1.4 percent annual decline in the Pierce County economic index in 2009, the
first decrease in almost 30 years. Unemployment, they believe, will average 6.4 percent for the year, but
job creation will remain relatively steady, spurred by strong military and health care sectors and by in-
migration filling available white collar jobs. The latter is offset by layoffs at major companies such as
Weyerhauser, changes in benefits at Starbucks, and uncertainty about the relocation of Russell Investment.
Real consumer spending, which dropped 8.5 percent in 2008, is predicted to improve steadily in 2009,
returning to 2006 levels. At the same time, vacancy rates in commercial and industrial real estate will
hover around 9-10 percent during the year, and residential housing will see a 10 percent drop in the first
quarter of 2009 before improvement in the third and fourth quarters. Real per capita income for county
residents is projected to decline by 1.9 percent. In addition, Goodman and Mann believe that traffic at the
Port of Tacoma will decline 6-7 percent over the year.

Washington State Budget Reductions in Higher Education

The Governor’s budget proposal estimates a shortfall in state general revenues of roughly $5.7 billion from
a base of nearly $37 billion for the 2009/11 biennium. Historically, higher education has
received roughly 11 percent of the state general revenue budget. The Governor’s proposal for the new
biennium calls for an eight percent decrease in all of higher education and a 13 percent cut in funding for
the state's four-year colleges and universities. As a result, higher education in Washington faces the
possibility of offering fewer courses and reducing faculty and staff positions. Students may experience
larger class sizes and fewer support services. Proposed reductions in K-12 spending could also affect the
“pipeline” of future students to the four-year colleges and universities.



UW Tacoma Office of Institutional Research and Planning                                           P a g e |2
                             UW Tacoma: A Framework of Current Conditions and Projections
                                    Prepared for the Strategic Planning Committee
                                                     Jan 6, 2009




Student Demand

In the midst of the economic downturn, there is no sign that national or regional student demand is
weakening. In fact, historically students have returned to school or continued their education in times of
economic hardship, and this pattern appears to be continuing. According to the Wall Street Journal, as of
Nov. 28, 2008 the federal government had guaranteed or made $65.2 billion in student loans for the 2008-
09 academic year, up 18.6 percent from the same time a year earlier.

The great majority of undergraduates attend UW Tacoma after transferring from regional community
colleges, and students are entering Washington’s 34 community and technical colleges in numbers not
seen since the 1970’s, with a roughly 8,000 FTE increase from 2007 to 2008. According to the State
Board of Community and Technical Colleges (SBCTC) 2007/2008 Enrollment Report, “(s)tate-supported
2007/08 enrollments reached the highest level in history when measured without the ever-changing worker
retraining FTEs. The total state FTEs (136,199) exceeds the system’s 134,781 FTE legislative target.”
Additionally, high school student enrollments in Running Start, College in the High School and
Alternative High School programs have grown much faster than overall enrollment and have outpaced
growth in the number of high school juniors and seniors. This suggests increased demand for access to
colleges and universities. According to the same report, “(o)ne of the fastest growing areas of enrollment
(in higher education) is eLearning, which includes online courses, tele-courses, correspondence and ITV.
eLearning enrollments grew 15 percent from 16,248 FTEs in 2006/07 to 18,645 FTEs in 2007/08. Online
enrollment—by far the largest category of eLearning with 91 percent of the enrollments—grew by more
than 17 percent.”

Academic-intent enrollments at UW Tacoma’s major feeder community colleges were generally up from
2007 to 2008, with Tacoma Community College showing an increase of 4 percent to 2,229 students, while
Highline and South Puget Sound realized increases of 5 percent to 2,407 and 1,694 students respectively.
However, Pierce College and Green River both saw a slight decrease in academic-intent enrollments of -2
percent to 2, 854 and 2,551 students respectively.

One exception to the upward trend in student demand nationally that may affect Washington and UW
Tacoma is a possible slowdown in graduate school enrollments as evidenced by a drop in the number of
students taking the Graduate Record Examination in 2008, the first time that the number of GRE test-
takers has dropped during a recession. GRE test-taking is highly correlated with application trends, and
the current drop is reflected both among international and American applicants. One hypothesis for the
drop is that the credit crunch is discouraging people from applying to graduate school because they
perceive a lack of financial support and another is fear of job loss. At the same time, the number of people
taking the Graduate Management Admission Test (GMAT) increased in 2008.

It appears that Washington public K-12 enrollments will remain relatively stable over the next few years,
with slightly over 1,000,000 students enrolled in schools in 2007/2008. 29,677 of these students are in the
Tacoma School District. The graduating pool of potential university applicants should remain somewhat
stable over the next several years in the state with 78,515 students enrolled in grade 12; 80,555 in grade
11; 85,041 in grade 10; and 89,132 students enrolled in grade 9 for 2007-2008.

The overall enrollment pattern for South Sound school districts is also projected to remain stable. Tacoma
School District showed a slight increase of 16 students from 2007 to 2008, the first time since 2001 that
enrollments increased rather than declined. However, the district predicts that Tacoma enrollments will
drop through 2011, although not as drastically as previously predicted.




UW Tacoma Office of Institutional Research and Planning                                           P a g e |3
                             UW Tacoma: A Framework of Current Conditions and Projections
                                    Prepared for the Strategic Planning Committee
                                                     Jan 6, 2009



                                               Internal Scan

Governor’s Budget Proposal for UW Tacoma in the 2009/11 Biennium

The Governor’s budget proposal was announced in mid-December of 2008 and will be presented to the
legislature early in 2009. Traditionally, changes are made in budget proposals throughout the legislative
approval process that will culminate in the late spring of 2009, and final budgets that become law reflect
compromises between the executive and legislative branches of state government.

Governor Gregoire has proposed a 13 percent reduction for the University of Washington in the 2009/11
biennium—a $116.1 million reduction for a total proposed budget of $733.5 million. This amount reflects
savings realized in 2008/09 from general budget reductions; from the Governor’s August 2008 directive to
freeze hiring, out-of-state travel, personal service contracts and non-essential equipment purchases; and
from the Governor’s October directive calling for an additional one percent in reductions. UW Tacoma’s
estimated share in the reduction for the new biennium is $7.3 million or $3.66 million annually. This is
15.2 percent of the base general fund budget for the campus and reflects the 4.2 percent reduction taken in
the current fiscal year.

The Governor proposes no new FTE funding for the University as a whole. Budgeted enrollments were
38,526 FTE students (including Tacoma and Bothell) in 2008/2009 and are to remain unchanged during
the 2009/11 biennium. However, budget proviso language directs the University to continue to prepare
graduates in certain programs with high employer demand, producing at least 3,996 degrees in the next
biennium in the following academic program areas—natural resources/conservation, computer science,
mathematics, engineering, physical sciences, biological sciences, and health professions/clinical sciences.
In addition, the Governor’s proposal includes no funding for salary increases for represented or non-
represented employees.

The budget proposal authorizes tuition increases of seven percent for resident undergraduates in each year
of the biennium. Tuition for graduate and professional students and non-resident undergraduates will
remain set by current law. An additional $19.2 million will be provided for student financial aid programs
to reflect the proposed higher tuition rates, but this will be partially offset by changes in the grant
eligibility requirements for median family income.

Funding is provided to increase the level of state operations and maintenance support for the UW Tacoma
Assembly Hall. Also included in the budget proposal are funding for renovation of the Joy Building at $34
million and $500,000 in pre-design funding for Phase Four of the UW Tacoma Master Plan.

Annualized 2008-2009 FTE Projections

The projections for 2008/2009 annualized FTE show that UW Tacoma will meet 100 percent of the state-
funded target of 2414 FTE and will be potentially over-enrolled by roughly four percent or 100 FTE. The
traditional pattern of attrition from Autumn to Winter Quarter has not been realized this year; enrollments
have actually increased from Autumn to the Winter term with FTE growth projected at 2.3 percent from
Autumn to Winter. Additionally, new undergraduate applications for Spring 2009 are currently running 37
percent ahead of Spring 2008, suggesting further growth with less attrition than normally seen in Spring
Quarter.




UW Tacoma Office of Institutional Research and Planning                                            P a g e |4
                                 UW Tacoma: A Framework of Current Conditions and Projections
                                        Prepared for the Strategic Planning Committee
                                                         Jan 6, 2009


     Target      New          Target      Fall 2008                                     Projected
                                                              Actual      Projected                     Budgeted        Projected
      2007       2008          2008      FTE to meet                                   Annual Avg.
                                                              Winter       Spring                         2008         Annual Avg.
      2008       2009          2009      Annualized                                       2008
                                                              2009          2009                          2009          Variance
       FTE        FTE           FTE        Target                                         2009

                                                                                                                     Number   Percent

O
F     2139         275         2414         2499.2              2453           2327          2426.4        2414          12    0.51
M

I
R     2139         275         2414         2507.5            2533.1          2431.8         2490.8        2414        76.8    3.18
P




    2009-2010 Projections (data as of Jan 6, 2009)

    Undergraduate applications for Autumn 2009 are currently running ahead of 2008 applications with
    freshman applications up 32 percent and undergraduate applications up 40 percent. However, graduate
    applications are down 22 percent for Autumn 2009.

    With record enrollments in 2007/2008 and 2008/2009 and with no new FTE funding projected for the
    2009/11 biennium, it appears that new undergraduate applications will need to be managed in order to
    control over-enrollment in 2009-2010.


    Freshmen Applications to Autumn of 2009

                 2009 ECF
                                   2009          2008 Apps              2008 Apps To         2007 Apps          2007 Apps to
                   Paid
                                   Apps            Total                    Date               Total               Date
                  To Date

     Total           0             198               596                    150                  520                 111


    Undergraduate Applications, sans Freshmen, to Autumn of 2009


               2009 Upper Div 2009 Soph.               2009        2008 Apps      2008 Apps To    2007 Apps        2007 Apps to
                   Apps          Apps                  Apps          Total            Date          Total             Date

      Total              68                4            80             1242            57             1376             74




    Graduate Applications to Autumn of 2009


                                       2008 Apps              2008 Apps To         2007 Apps           2007 Apps to
                     2009 Apps
                                         Total                    Date               Total                Date

         Total            46               324                     56                  308                 46




    UW Tacoma Office of Institutional Research and Planning                                                            P a g e |5
                             UW Tacoma: A Framework of Current Conditions and Projections
                                    Prepared for the Strategic Planning Committee
                                                     Jan 6, 2009




2009-2010 Enrollments

Given the previously described budgetary issues for 2009/2010, UW Tacoma is most likely facing the need
to limit enrollments due to negative budget constraints and high student demand.

UW Tacoma produced record enrollments in both 2007 and 2008 and, given the standard three- year
graduation rate, it is reasonable to expect many of these students will return in 2009. Early projections by
IRP are that roughly 59 percent of the current student body will return in Autumn 2009, taking into
account both expected graduations and attrition. This correlates to about 1760 students returning, allowing
space for 1240 new students (1033 FTE) to enroll in order to maintain the current equilibrium of roughly
3,000 students or 2500 FTE from 2008/2009. The 440 projected student attrition is adjusted to reflect
slightly lower attrition than normal; however, this attrition rate may be even lower if higher student
retention patterns are seen in Spring quarter. If the lower attrition materializes, there will be fewer seats
available for new students.

Based on historical application yield rates (offered to registered) of 52 percent for freshmen, 78 percent for
undergraduates, and 72 percent for graduate students, the following table estimates the number of
application offers necessary to reach the 1240 new students needed to maintain equilibrium at 3,000
students. The Offered (and Enrolled) numbers by class level in the table are examples only and subject to
change. They were chosen to keep in balance the 72 percent proportionality agreement for new
undergraduate seats held for Washington State community college transfers, with an 81 percent ratio for
new undergraduate seats.


                                          Offered                Yield Percent              Enrolled
Freshmen                                                   385                   52%                      200
Undergraduate                                             1077                   78%                      840
Graduate                                                   278                   72%                      200
                       Total                              1740                  71%                     1240


* These ratios would need to be agreed upon and then calculated by program. This chart is for general
planning purposes only and this is not suggesting policy or appropriations by class level.


PARC Proposals and FTE

In late 2006, the Chancellor provided funding to support the development of new programs at UW
Tacoma. A process was designed for review of program proposal funding through both the Program
Administrators Review Committee (PARC) and the UW Tacoma Academic Policy Council, with the Vice
Chancellor for Academic Affairs having final local approval. Successful proposals would then receive tri-
campus review followed by external review and approval by the Higher Education Coordinating Board
(HECB).

To date, seven program proposals—undergraduate degrees in Human Rights, Writing, Healthcare
Leadership, Sustainable Urban Planning, Information Technology and Systems, Hispanic Studies, and
History—are currently at various stages of the approval process and were originally slated to begin in
2009/10. Total new FTE associated with these programs is estimated at 161 within two years and
approximately 400 by 2013/14. Seven additional proposals—undergraduate degrees in Arts in the
Community, Nursing, Environmental Engineering Science, and Criminal Justice; masters degrees in Urban


UW Tacoma Office of Institutional Research and Planning                                             P a g e |6
                             UW Tacoma: A Framework of Current Conditions and Projections
                                    Prepared for the Strategic Planning Committee
                                                     Jan 6, 2009


Studies and Environmental Engineering Science; and a Secondary Mathematics Education Endorsement—
are being developed for implementation after 2011.

The future of all these proposals has become problematic, particularly in light of the lack of new FTE
funding in the Governor’s budget proposal.

Strategic Initiatives

All campus units were asked in 2008 to develop a strategic plan detailing growth initiatives. However, the
plans were drafted before the current budget crisis, and therefore the Strategic Planning Committee has
asked all UW Tacoma Vice Chancellors for any proposed revisions to their original planning, taking into
consideration the latest budget constraints, and to identify those initiatives within divisional plans that they
consider “mission-critical” and which should be pursued regardless of budgetary constraints. The results of
this update have not been collected or compiled as of this date.

Some of the major strategic initiatives considered within the original unit and divisional strategic plans
were: student housing, new academic programs, renovation of the Joy Building, relocation of office space,
recruitment of additional international students, establishment of schools and colleges, development of
more lower division courses, converting concentrations into majors, development of more co-curricular
programming, and campus safety.




UW Tacoma Office of Institutional Research and Planning                                               P a g e |7
                             UW Tacoma: A Framework of Current Conditions and Projections
                                    Prepared for the Strategic Planning Committee
                                                     Jan 6, 2009




References


    1. Inside Higher Ed, Shying Away From Graduate School, December 8, 2008:
        http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2008/12/08/gre
    2. OFM Budget documents: University of Washington
        http://ofm.wa.gov/budget09/recsum/360.pdf
    3. OSPI Oct07StateEnrollmentGrade.xls
    4. OSPI Washington State Report Card:
        http://reportcard.ospi.k12.wa.us/summary.aspx?year=2007-08
    5. PARC website: http://www.tacoma.washington.edu/academic_affairs/PARC.html
    6. President Emmert memo: http://uwnews.org/article.asp?articleID=45995
    7. Provost Wise memo: http://www.washington.edu/provost/index.html
    8. Randy Hodgkin’s memo: December 2008
    9. SBCTC News Release Nov. 6, 2008: http://www.sbctc.edu/general/_n-
        20081106_nov6_record_enrollments_at_wactcs.aspx
    10. State Board of Community and Technical Colleges, Annual 2007/08 Enrollment Report:
        http://www.sbctc.ctc.edu/docs/data/research_reports/annualenrollmentreps/annual_fte_rep
        ort2007-08.pdf
    11. The News Tribune, Oh, no, 2009 may be worse for Pierce County's economy,
        December 12, 2008: http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/local/story/565300.html
    12. The Wall Street Journal, Tuition Ammunition: a Happy Lesson on Lending, Jan 6,
        2009: http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB123119963504555547-
        lMyQjAxMDI5MzAxNjEwOTY5Wj.html
    13. USA Today, Forecasters share predictions for economy's outlook in 2009, December 12, 2008:
        http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-12-22-economic-outlook-2009_N.htm
    14. UW Planning and Budgeting Brief: Dec, 19, 2008




UW Tacoma Office of Institutional Research and Planning                                     P a g e |8

								
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