Fall 2005 Environmental Scan by mmo13137

VIEWS: 37 PAGES: 50

									                   Fall 2005 Environmental Scan




Prepared by the Office of Institutional
Assessment and Planning




Phoenix College and the Maricopa County Community Colleges are EEO/AA institutions.
                                                     Forward

Community colleges throughout the nation are operating in a time of unprecedented change. The students
enrolling in postsecondary education differ in many ways from those in previous years and require an ever-
changing set of skills. As student and employer needs evolve quickly, community colleges must be prepared to
address this fast-paced change.

Successful leadership and management of colleges depend upon the ability of faculty and staff to adapt to a rapidly
changing environment. Decision-makers need to anticipate environmental changes and assess their impact on the
organization (Cope, 1981). As change agents, they should utilize environmental scanning which is a method that
enables decision-makers both to understand the external environment and the interconnections of its various
sectors and to translate this understanding into the institution’s planning and decision-making processes (Morrison,
1992).

The Office of Institutional Assessment & Planning at Phoenix College is pleased to present the 2005 Phoenix
College Environmental Scan. This report is a compilation of information from existing data with a focus on
population, demographics, education, economics, workforce and technology. While this environmental scan
includes information from various sources, the reader should refer to the original documents for additional details
regarding any information presented in this report. We have included hyperlinks to many of the articles and a
comprehensive list of all sources is provided at the end of this report. In addition, this report includes implication
bullets for many of the topics covered to assist Phoenix College leaders in considering how these trends will impact
the institution. We encourage you to consider these trends as well as other implications from the information
provided.

The goal of this report is to provide a broad range of information that will enable decision-makers to understand
current and potential changes occurring in Phoenix College’s internal and external environment. More importantly,
this report should serve as a platform to develop strategic directions and goals for the college to support the
planning and decision-making process.

In addition to the environmental scan, this report includes Phoenix College and Census data. The purpose of these
reports is to supplement the environmental scan by providing demographic data specific to Phoenix College. By
reviewing current and projected trends in conjunction with this data, Phoenix College will be better equipped to
anticipate and effectively respond to the changing needs of the community we serve.

We would like to thank the District Office of Institutional Effectiveness and Estrella Mountain Community College
for providing models to assist in the creation of this document. We would also like to thank the Phoenix College
Office of Institutional Advancement staff for their assistance with this report.


        Anna Solley, Ed.D.                                         Jan Binder, M.A., M.Ed.
        Acting President                                           Director of Institutional Assessment
        Phoenix College                                            Phoenix College




  2005 Environmental Scan Report                                                                                  1
                                                                     Table of Contents

    Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3-4


    Environmental Scan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5-22

        Population Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5
        Changing Demographics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6
        Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8
        Education in Arizona . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11
        The Knowledge-Based Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13
        Industry Clusters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13
        Workforce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17
        Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19
        On The Horizon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21


    Phoenix College Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23-29

        Headcount . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23
        Demographics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25
        Performance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27
        Feeder High School Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28


    Census Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31-40

        Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31
        Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32
        Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
        Gender . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34
        Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35
        Ethnicity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36
        Median Household Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
        Poverty Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38
        Housing/Vacancy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39
        Owner Occupied Housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40


    Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41-42

    Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43-46



2                                                                                                                     2005 Environmental Scan Report
                                           Executive Summary


As the State of Arizona and the City of Phoenix continue to experience rapid change, Phoenix College will need to
position itself as a leader in higher education and training services. The college must also embrace the challenges
required to be competitive in a knowledge economy.

The purpose of the 2005 Phoenix College Environmental Scan is to provide a broad range of information that will
enable decision-makers to understand current and potential trends so that strategic directions and goals for
Phoenix College can be established. This summary highlights information from the report as it relates to the
strategic directions.



        The population is increasing rapidly in Arizona, Maricopa County and Phoenix. Two areas that will
        impact Phoenix College are the baby boomers and boomlets. Both groups will have different
        educational needs than previous college students.


        The demographic profile of Arizona is becoming increasingly diverse in its age, race and ethnic
        composition. The Hispanic and Asian populations are currently the fastest growing minority
        groups.


        As a larger number of students attend college their needs will be considerably different than in the
        past. Community Colleges in particular will see more non-traditional students. More than half the
        increase in undergraduates will occur in five states. Arizona will be one of these states.


        There are financial barriers to post secondary education for low income students. The future
        direction of the Federal Financial Aid Program will impact these students. Community Colleges will
        need to develop innovative strategies to assist these students.


        As space allocation is increasingly scarce the need to explore distance learning opportunities
        becomes important. Nationally, the distance learning market is projected to be an 11 billion dollar
        industry.


        Some Community College districts similar in size to Maricopa, are now offering baccalaureate
        degrees in teaching and nursing. Although House Bill 2079 did not pass in Arizona, this issue
        will continue to resurface.


        There are an increasing number of Hispanic Serving Institutions. Although, there are federal dollars
        available to assist these schools, competition, for these funds is growing. This will require recipients
        of these funds to be more strategic in their planning and development for funding opportunities.



 2005 Environmental Scan Report                                                                                    3
                                        Executive Summary



    Feeder high schools for Phoenix College have high drop out rates, low standardized testing scores,
    and low graduation rates. A limited number of these students attend our institution and many
    require developmental programs.


    The Greater Phoenix Economic Counsel (GPEC) has focused their business attraction efforts on five
    priority industry clusters; Bio-Industry, Aerospace, Advanced Business Services, High Tech
    Manufacturing and Software.


    The State of Arizona and the City of Phoenix are making significant investments in the Biosciences.
    Despite these investments, Arizona is lagging compared to other bioscience states and there is a
    clear mismatch in the specific areas of demand and supply.

    The ten fastest growing occupations between 2003 and 2013 will be health care related. The state
    is expected to experience a shortage of Nurses and medical technicians.


    Projections indicate that Arizona will face a shortage of 27,000 teachers over the next decade and
    community colleges will be instrumental in filling this deficit.


    As a result of the Public University Redesign, tuition costs will vary depending on the role of the
    University.


    The Phoenix downtown area is being enhanced by the MCCD/ASU downtown campus, the
    Phoenix Biomedical Campus, Opportunity Corridor (Mayor’s Initiative), and the light rail project.


    Phoenix College is becoming increasingly diverse in its student age and ethnic composition. The
    College is also experiencing an increase in non-traditional students.


    Although the retention rate for Phoenix College was slightly lower than the national benchmark, the
    success rate was slightly higher.


    Each segment of the college’s service area increased in population and diversity over the last
    decade.


    As the state’s demographic profile and planning for the future changes, Phoenix College must be
    receptive and responsive to these changes.




4                                                                      2005 Environmental Scan Report
ENVIRONMENTAL
     SCAN
                                            Environmental Scan

POPULATION GROWTH                                          With an increase of more than 1 million people
                                                           between 1990 and 2000, a considerable part of
During the 1990s, Arizona consistently ranked as one       Arizona’s population increase was due to the growth
of the fastest growing states in the nation. From 1990     occurring in Maricopa County. More recently, from
to 2000, Arizona’s population increased 40 percent-        2003 to 2004, estimates show that Maricopa County
three times faster than the national average. The last     led the nation in numerical growth (112,233) for the
decade added nearly 1.5 million new residents to           period. This population growth was 23,000 more
Arizona—the equivalent of adding more people than          than the second fastest growing Riverside County
the entire population of the City of Phoenix to the        California and 35,000 more than the third fastest
state, and an increase larger than the entire              growing Los Angeles County California. As the fourth
population of the state in 1960 (FAIR, 2004). In 2004,     largest county in the United States, the current
Arizona’s population grew to 5.7 million, making it        population of Maricopa County is slightly more than
the 18th most populous state in the nation. According      3.5 million.
to recent projections by the U.S. Census Bureau,
between 2000 and 2030, the population of Arizona           The City of Phoenix also continues to be one the
will add 5.6 million residents, placing the state within   fastest growing metropolitan areas in the United
the top five for numerical growth during this period.      States. Between 1990 (983,403) and 2000
This growth would move Arizona into the top 10             (1,321,045) the population of Phoenix increased 34
states for total population-an increase from 18th          percent. With a current population of 1.4 million,
place in 2004 (U.S. Census, 2005).                         Phoenix is the sixth largest city in the nation. While
                                                           the growth of Phoenix will not be as significant as that
                                                           of Maricopa County, the city’s population will
                                                           continue to increase at a notable rate. According to
                                                           projections by the Arizona Department of Economic
                                                           Security, by 2010, the population of Phoenix will be
                                                           slightly more than 1.5 million, an increase of 14
                                                           percent from 2000.


                                                               What changes to Phoenix College’s current
                                                               structure will have to be made to accommodate
                                                               the predicted population growth over the next
                                                               decade?

                                                               What impact will the projected population
                                                               growth have on college facilities, space usage
                                                               and course delivery methods?

                                                               What enrollment management strategies should
                                                               Phoenix College consider to ensure that
                                                               enrollment keeps pace with projected population
                                                               increases?



  2005 Environmental Scan Report                                                                               5
                                         Environmental Scan

CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS                                      the non-Hispanic White population. Among the
                                                           minority groups, Asian/Pacific Islanders and
With the population of Arizona adding more than                                        Hispanics are the fastest
                                                           Every Minority Group will   growing populations.
100,000 people each year, the state’s demographic
                                                           represent an increasing     The     2000      Census
profile is becoming increasingly diverse in its age,
race and ethnic composition.                               share of the future U.S.    marked the Hispanic
                                                           population.                 population at 35.3
The Immigrant Population                                                               million     people,    an
Between 1990 and 2000, Arizona ranked 2nd in the           increase of 58 percent from 1990. Estimates indicate
nation for net gain in foreign-born population. During     that as of 2004, the Hispanic population was 40.4
                               this time period, Arizona   million. By 2010, Hispanics will become the second
About 1.3 million people in added nearly 380,000           largest race/ethnic group, second only to non-
Arizona are immigrants or immigrants, bringing the         Hispanic Whites (U.S. Department of Commerce
                               total number of foreign-    MBDA, 2000). The Asian population increased faster
children of immigrants..
                               born residents in the       than the total population between 1990 and 2000,
state to over 650,000 (Census, 2000). The increase         growing by 5 million (72 percent). Compared to their
in the foreign-born population between 1990 and            1995 population totals, projections for 2050 indicate
2000 accounted for 26 percent of the state’s overall       the following percentage increases for minority
population increase. Arizona now has the fifth-largest     populations:
immigrant population, or about 500,000 of the
estimated 11 million such immigrants in the United                         Asians (267%)
States (Pew Hispanic Center, 2005).                                        Hispanics (258%)
                                                                           American Indians and
 In 2000, there were 257,325 foreign-born residents
                                                                           Alaskan Natives (95%)
in Phoenix, 19.5 percent of the city’s overall
population. According to the U.S. Census, the                              Blacks (83%)
immigrant population in Phoenix
increased 204 percent, which
compared with an increase of 18
percent in the native-born population
(includes children born to immigrants)
over the same time period. This
means that the increase in the
immigrant population accounted
directly for 51 percent of the city's
population increase (FAIR, 2004).

Minority Representation
The population of the United States is
becoming increasingly diverse and
minority groups will continue to
experience more rapid growth than



  6                                                                     2005 Environmental Scan Report
                                           Environmental Scan

According to the 2000 Census, minorities                  population age 65 years and older increased 12
represented 35 percent of the state’s total               percent (31.2 million to 35 million). During the same
population. Among the 50 states, Arizona ranked 6th       time period, Arizona’s population age 65+ grew by 39
in the number of persons of Hispanic origin, 3rd          percent (478,774 to 667,839). Between 2000 and
largest in the number of American Indians, 19th in the    2025, Arizona’s older population is expected to
number of Asian/Pacific Islanders and 30th in the         almost double, growing from 634,499 to 1,380,629.
number of Blacks. In the greater Phoenix area,
minorities represented 44 percent of the city’s total     Nationally by 2011, the Baby Boomers, people born
population. The largest percentage of minority            between 1946 and 1964, will begin to turn 65 years-
population increases in Phoenix from 1990 to 2000         old and approach the retirement age. This group will
was Hispanic (128%) and Asian/Pacific Islander            have a significant impact on the increasing numbers
(80%). The Hispanic population has increased more         of individuals age 65 and older. By 2030, it is
than three times the total growth of Phoenix. Both        projected that one in five people will be age 65 years
Blacks and American Indians/Alaskan Natives also          and older. The U.S. population age 65 years and older
had notable percentage increases over the past            is projected to double in size over the next 30 years,
decade, 31 and 37 percent respectively.                   growing to 70 million by 2030. Unlike previous
                                                          retirement generations, Baby Boomers are healthier,
Youth and Older Adult Population                          more diverse, better educated, more informed, have
Arizona as a whole has a younger median age than          greater political clout, live longer, and have different
the nation, 34.2 compared to 35.3. This trend will        desires about where they want to live and retire
continue as Arizona’s birthrate (16.1 per 1,000           (Greater Phoenix Regional Atlas, 2003).
population) outpaces the nation’s birthrate (13.9).
Arizona is adding young children to its population at
one of the fastest rates in the nation. Between April
2000 and July 2003, Arizona had the highest growth            How will Phoenix College be impacted by the
rate of children under the age of five. In addition,          growing minority populations?
Arizona ranked second in the nation in the rate of
increase (10%) in the elementary school-age
                                                              What programs and courses will need to be
population and third in the nation for the highest
                                                              offered to accommodate the different needs of
proportion of their population in the 5-to-13 age
                                                              1st, 2nd and 3rd generation Hispanic students?
group (14 percent) in 2003 (U.S. Census, 2004).

In 2000, there were an estimated 35 million people            As the Baby Boomers approach retirement, what
age 65 years and older in the United States,                  strategies should the college consider to serve
accounting for 12.4 percent of the total population. In       this population?
Arizona, there were roughly 667,839 persons age 65
years and older comprising 13 percent of the state’s          The Baby Boomlets will be coming to college
total population. While the percentage of persons             soon. How will these students differ from
older than 65 in Arizona is comparable to national            previous generations? What strategies should
numbers, it should be noted that this segment of the          the college consider to serve this population?
population is increasing at a rate nearly three times
the national rate. Between 1990 and 2000, the U.S.



 2005 Environmental Scan Report                                                                               7
                                             Environmental Scan

EDUCATION                                                    Similar to the nation, colleges and universities will be
                                                             more diverse in the coming decades. The highest
Changing Demographics of the Potential                       levels of racial/ethnic diversity at higher education
College Student                                              institutions will be clustered in particular regions of
Between 1995 and 2015, 22 percent more students              the country. In fact, more than half of the overall
are projected to enroll in college, reaching 16 million      increase in undergraduates will occur in five states-
(assuming today’s college participation rate of 66           California, Texas, Florida, New York and Arizona
percent). Contributing to this rise will be the arrival on   (Carnevale & Fry, 2000). Students of color-
campus of the Baby Boomlets (children of the Baby            traditionally a segment that under-enrolls and is least
Boomers). Estimates indicate that Generation Y, those        prepared for college- will represent 80 percent of the
born from 1979 to 1995, represent 79 million (27%)           increase in college-aged students. Hispanic students
of the total U.S. population. As the baby boom echo          will register the largest absolute gains, adding about
continues to play out with larger high school                1 million undergraduate students to colleges and
graduating classes, and as national and state policies       universities by 2015.         In percentage terms,
focus even more intensely on the intersection                Asian/Pacific Islanders represent the fastest growing
between secondary and postsecondary education,               minority. This group is projected to increase by
this group will be of increasing importance to               600,000 (86%) students between 1995 and 2015
community colleges.                                          (Humphreys, 2003). Despite these increases, the
                                                             proportion of African American and Hispanic
In 2002, “traditional” students represented just 25          students age 18 to 24 years old that enroll in
percent of all undergraduates (U.S. Department of            postsecondary education will be smaller than their
Education, 2002) meaning that one or more of the             overall proportion in the nation. Among minority
following characteristics apply to three-quarters of all     groups, only Asian youth will be attending college in
undergraduates: delayed enrollment after high                numbers at or above their share of the 18-to 24 year
school, attends part-time, works full-time, is               old U.S. population (ETS, 2000).
financially independent of parents, has dependents
other than a spouse, is a single parent, or does not
have a high school diploma. When compared to
students at four-year institutions, community college            What if these large numbers of prospective
students are more likely to come from households                 students do not enroll at Phoenix College? What
with lower incomes, to be from a minority population,            opportunities will be lost for the college and the
to be first-generation college students, to be older             community it serves?
than the average college student, to have children, to
delay enrollment after high school, to have had less
                                                                 What if they do enroll? What strategies can
rigorous high school curriculum, and to have lower
                                                                 Phoenix College implement to help them succeed
achievement in high school. They are also more likely
                                                                 and graduate?
to have non-traditional enrollment patterns, such as
attending part-time, working while enrolled, or
interrupting schooling. In fact, among students who              What programs and services should PC offer to
work, community college students are much more                   accommodate the increasing number of non-
likely to self-identify as workers than as students              traditional students?
(CCRC, 2004).



  8                                                                        2005 Environmental Scan Report
                                            Environmental Scan

Financial Barriers in Postsecondary Education              family income is $18,850 or less. Through a
Research cites rising college prices, increasing           combination of financial aid resources that do not
numbers of poor students and students of color, and        require repayment, the new program covers the
the growth of merit-based financial aid as urgent          annual costs of tuition, fees, books, room and board
conditions that require the nation to make increased       for eight semesters of full-time enrollment (ASU
access to higher education for lower-income students       News, 2005).
a priority (American Council on Education, 2004).
                                                           In December 2004 the U.S. Education Department
The Advisory Commission on Student Financial               announced that it had, for the first time in a decade,
Assistance (2002), in examining the most                   updated the amount it allows families to deduct for
                               academically qualified      state and local tax payments when applying for
Last year loans accounted      college      applicants,    financial aid. According to an analysis by the
for nearly 70 percent of all   found that millions of      American Council on Education, about 1.3 million
federal financial assistance high school graduates         students and their families will see their eligibility for
available to college students, from low and moderate-      federal financial aid cut because the new formula will
up from about 56 percent       income families will find   show them to have more discretionary income
two decades ago.               it difficult to afford      available to pay for college than before (Chronicle of
                               enrollment in college       Higher Education, 2005). In addition, nearly 90,000
unless the states and federal government revitalize        people could be possibly disqualified from receiving
the need-based financial aid system. The commission        Pell Grants. The Chronicle of Higher Education
found that the majority (56 percent or 1.6 million         projects that these changes will result in the
students) of students who graduated high school in         ineligibility of about 2700 former Pell Grant recipients
2002 were from families with incomes under                 in Arizona.
$50,000. The minority population will be the fastest
growing segment of college-age individuals and
approximately 45 percent will come from families
with the lowest expected family contribution (EFC).            How will the recent financial aid changes
                                                               impact the students at PC who receive Pell
According to ‘Measuring up 2004,’ a study done by              Grants?
the National Center for Public Policy and Higher
Education, Arizona low and middle income residents
                                                               What can PC do to encourage and support
must pay 37% of their income for community college
                                                               students enrolling into college from low
education and 46% for public, four-year education. In
                                                               economic backgrounds?
2003-2004, nearly 11,600 Arizona undergraduates
received more than $34 million in ASU grant and
scholarship aid; nearly $24 million was awarded to             What strategies and partnerships should the
students who demonstrated financial need. In an                college consider to bridge the gap between
effort to remove the financial barriers to                     decreases in financial aid and tuition costs?
postsecondary education, Arizona State University
has established a new series of initiatives called
“Access ASU.’’ The first program in the series, “ASU
Advantage” targets Arizona families whose total



  2005 Environmental Scan Report                                                                                9
                                            Environmental Scan

Distance Education                                         also proposed the creation of a per student growth
According to the U.S. Department of Education, more        funding amount through full-time equivalent student
than half (56%) of all postsecondary institutions in the   (FTSE) formulas; the establishment of a Transfer
nation offered some form of distance education             Articulation Commission and the Community College
during the 2000-01 academic year. The annual               Implementation Committee. Ultimately, the bill failed
market for distance learning is projected to be $11        to pass the Senate, but as concerns regarding ‘access’
billion in 2005 (Kariya, 2003…) The number of              to post-secondary education increase, it is likely that
students enrolling in distance education is increasing.    this will be an emerging and important issue in
Approximately 3.1 million students enrolled in some        Arizona’s future.
form of distance education in 2000-01. Of those, an
estimated 2.87 million students were enrolled in           Hispanic Serving Institutions
college-level, credit-earning courses.                     In the past decade more than 240 colleges have been
                                                           designated “Hispanic-Serving Institutions” (HSI) by
The Changing Role of Community Colleges                    the federal government. This means that at least a
The idea of community colleges awarding bachelor’s         quarter (25%) of the institution’s enrollment is
degrees is not new. In the past decade, two-year           Hispanic, and of the Hispanic student enrollment at
colleges in Arkansas, Nevada and Utah have started         least 50% are low income. While 49 of the institutions
to offer bachelors’ degrees. In recent years, Miami-       are in Puerto Rico, California has 73; Texas, 38; New
Dade, one of the largest community colleges in the         Mexico, 20; and Arizona, Florida, Illinois and New
nation (56,000 credit students) and comparable to          York each have at least 10 (Chronicle of Higher
Maricopa Community Colleges, has begun to offer            Education, 2003).
bachelor degrees. The decision to begin awarding
bachelor’s degrees could signify that the very
                                                               What role will distance education play at
concept of the community college is changing.
                                                               Phoenix College in the upcoming years and what
Research suggests that the shift in community
colleges partly results from pressure from local               resources will be needed to support these
industries and legislators who have been frustrated            services?
with work-force shortages and the slow pace of
change at four-year colleges. In Florida, most of the          As an increasing number of traditional two-year
focus so far in the awarding of bachelor’s degrees by          institutions offer baccalaureate degrees, what
two-year institutions has been in the realm of teacher         impact will this have to the community college
education (Evelyn, 2003).                                      mission and structure?

Similar to other states throughout the nation, the             What implications and impact should Phoenix
Arizona legislature introduced a bill this year that           College consider as the state moves toward
would allow community colleges to offer                        allowing community colleges to offer four-year
baccalaureate degrees. Senate Bill 1109 ( originally
                                                               degrees?
House Bill 2079), proposed to change Eastern
Arizona University into a four-year liberal arts college
                                                               How will the increasing number of Hispanic
and would allow some community colleges to offer
                                                               Serving Institutions impact PC’s ability to
four-year degrees in fire science, health professions,
law enforcement and teaching. In addition, the bill            compete for the limited resources available to
                                                               these colleges and universities?


  10                                                                     2005 Environmental Scan Report
                                                   Environmental Scan

EDUCATION IN ARIZONA                                               Standardized Testing
                                                                   Arizona's Instrument to Measure Standards,
Excerpt from How Arizona Compares
                                                                   commonly referred to as AIMS, is a State sponsored
Over the past decade, Arizona has launched a variety               initiative to improve schools by implementing
of initiatives to improve education. State-funded all-             standards-based education and accountability. Since
day kindergarten, beginning with 130 low-income                    2001, 60-70 percent of high school students passed
schools, is one of the latest polices aimed at improving           the reading and writing portions of the test the first
education in Arizona. Despite these initiatives, many              time they took it. In 2006, current juniors will be the
measures show how far the state still has to go. For               first graduating class subject to the AIMS graduation
example, its elementary class sizes remain among the               requirement. Currently, only 43 percent of the Class of
nation’s highest; its 4th-grade students are ranked                2006 has passed all three sections of the AIMS test.
40th among states on the national NAEP reading test;               With more than 50 percent of this initial class not yet
its high school students are almost last among states              passing the test, a new state law will temporarily relax
for going on to college; the state currently ranks 47th            the requirement that high school students pass the
in per student K-12 spending; and-regardless of how                AIMS test to graduate. Under the bill (SB 1038), high
one calculates it-an alarming number of students drop              school students will be allowed to augment their non-
out of school each year.                                           passing AIMS scores with extra points from good to
                                                                   average grades. The extra points can amount to 25
          Arizona’s Students at a Glance                           percent of a student’s AIMS score. The bill allows the
   1,011,959 students in K-12 public schools (2003-2004)           change only in 2006 and 2007 (AZ Central, 2005).
   116,581 students in Arizona’s public universities
   (Fall 2004)
   370,990 students in Arizona’s public community
   colleges (2003-2004)
         Source: AZ Department of Education, AZ Board of Regents



Demographics
In the 2004-2005 academic year, there were
1,053,506 K-12 students in Arizona. Of the total
                             students enrolled, 52
Arizona ranks second only
                             percent came from
to California in the
                             minority groups, which
percentage of teachers       suffer disproportionately
who reported working with from low incomes and
students who had little or   poor          academic
no proficiency in English-   preparation. In 2004,
U.S. Department of           more than 50 percent of
                             the state’s K-12 public
Education, 2002.
                             school students qualified
for free or reduced-priced lunches--a standard
indicator of disadvantage. The state also had a large
number of elementary and secondary students that
were “English Language Learners,” with Spanish being
the most prevalent native language other than English.

  2005 Environmental Scan Report                                                                                     11
                                           Environmental Scan

Although Arizona faces significant challenges in          raising expectations. It requires a new approach to
education, test scores on the standardized “Stanford      operating the educational system-and to allocating the
9” have been improving. Students in the third grade       funds available. Arizona’s new vision for education
went from below average test scores in math, reading      must revolve around the schools themselves, making
and language in 1999 to above average in all three in     them smaller and more manageable. Simply put,
2004. Over the past five years, the scores for students   Arizona must “Lead with Five”-focus most of its efforts
in Maricopa County have improved in math and              on five classroom-based strategies that have proved to
language at all grade levels.                             be effective through the country: these are:

Drop-Outs                                                     Providing full- day kindergarten for all students
Many Arizona students do not complete a high school           Preparing and recognizing teacher for high
education within four years. In the 2003-2004                 performance
academic year there were 466,156 students in                  Creating smaller schools
grades 7 through 12. The total number of dropouts             Reducing class size in K-3
was 27,268, representing a 5.8 percent dropout rate           Providing one-on-one tutoring and extra help for
for the state. The percent of dropouts is more than           struggling students
sixteen times as high in grades 9-12 when compared
                                                          Arizona must also provide a better education to its
to grades 7-8 (16.2% versus 0.9%). African American,
                                                          upwardly mobile Latino youth. While Latinos born in
Hispanic and Native American students continue to
                                                          the state make up much of their immigrant parent’s
drop out at higher rates than White and Asian
                                                          educational deficits, only half obtain a high school
students. Native Americans displayed the highest
                                                          diploma. Latinos represent an ever-growing share of
overall dropout rate (includes middle and high school)
                                                          the Arizona population and a strong source of new
at 10 percent, including a 12.4 percent dropout rate
                                                          talent. In fact, Arizona’s future economic and social
at the high school level. In the 2003-2004 academic
                                                          well-being depends heavily on erasing the educational
year the dropout rates for each race/ethnic groups
                                                          deficits of the states young Hispanic residents.
were as follows (AZ Department of Education, 2005):
                                                              What strategies should Phoenix College explore
               White (3.9%)
                                                              and/or implement to improve the existing
               Hispanic (7.6%)
                                                              alignment between high school curricula and
               Native American (10%)
                                                              college standards?
               African American (6.1%)
               Asian (2.4%)
                                                              With successful completion of the AIMS testing
                                                              as a prerequisite to high school graduation, what
The Future of Education - excerpt from Lead with Five
                                                              strategies should PC consider regarding students
Companies increasingly follow either cheap labor or
                                                              who are unable to meet these criteria?
top talent. In order for Arizona to be successful in
attracting and retaining companies within the
                                                              What K-12 partnerships are available to PC to
knowledge based economy, it must produce an
educated and talented workforce that will stay at home        encourage the seamless transition from high
and form the foundation for the future prosperity.            school to college?
Although Arizona’s K-12 population is rapidly growing,
the recent push for more rigorous standards has not           How can PC programs such as ACE continue to
significantly improved the state of education. Making         help students overcome barriers to post-
education a success in Arizona means more than just           secondary education?

 12                                                                     2005 Environmental Scan Report
                                           Environmental Scan

                                                          Predictions of the top emerging technologies in the
                                                          next ten years include: more and better portable
                                                          computation and communication information devices;
                                                          fuel-cell powered automobiles; precision farming
                                                          (computerized management of crops to suit variations
                                                          in land characteristics); genetically altered organisms
                                                          associated with crops and food; smart program virtual
                                                          assistants; computerized health care; alternate energy
                                                          sources including wind, geothermal solar,
                                                          hydroelectric, and biomass; and smart, mobile robots.


                                                              As Arizona moves toward realizing the
                                                              Governor’s vision for a knowledge-based
                                                              economy, what opportunities are available to
                                                              PC?
THE KNOWLEDGE-BASED
ECONOMY - excerpt from How Arizona Compares                   What courses should PC offer to keep pace with
                                                              the changing technology needs?
Leaders in every state and across the globe share the
view of innovation as the path to prosperity. Thus,       INDUSTRY CLUSTERS
Arizona must compete with places whose creative
roots reach deeper and whose longer histories—and         The Greater Phoenix Economic Council has focused
past policy choices—create competitive advantages.        their business attraction efforts on five priority
Fortunately, Arizona and its urban centers are young      industry clusters: bioindustry, aerospace, advanced
and led now by people increasingly tuned in to a          business services, high-tech manufacturing and
common vision of how the economy should work and          software. These areas were chosen based on an
pay. Governor Napolitano’s vision in building             existing concentration or potential expansion in the
Arizona’s knowledge-based economy is that Arizona         region as well as the ability to create high wage, high-
will become a recognized global leader in discoveries,    skill jobs.
innovation and technology development. As
information and knowledge become increasingly             Bio-Industry - excerpts from GPEC, Preparing for the Future
important to society, technology will continue to be a    and Meds and Eds & Battelle

major driving force of change.                            The bio-industry cluster includes businesses that
                                                          provide products and services characterizing life
The Internet will continue to play an important role in   science activities such as medical and surgical
the exchange of information. The need for high-speed      devices, pharmaceuticals, medical technology,
connections and bandwidth represents the next             research, and testing. While Arizona is making a
frontier for the majority of Internet users and the       significant investment in the biosciences, the state
groups that support them. In addition, cutting edge       faces several major challenges. First the state has
developments from Internet2 (the high speed, fiber        some serious kinks in its “Meds and Eds” base-the
optic web partnership between universities,               medical and educational institutions that serve as the
corporations and government agencies) will continue       foundation.
to translate into commercial realities.

 2005 Environmental Scan Report                                                                                13
     Environmental Scan

               Among the kinks:
                 Talent Shortages: Arizona has among the lowest
                 number of working nurses and physicians per
                 capita of all 50 states.

                 Research Weakness: Arizona’s universities are
                 not top ten in capturing science and technology
                 research dollars or producing patents, startups
                 and commercial ventures.


                 Medical Schools: Unlike most bioscience
                 leaders, Arizona lacks a top 25 medical school-
                 more precisely, a research-focused medical
                 school.

                 Healthcare Transformation: Along with talent
                 troubles, the industry faces pressures to find new
                 cures, lower costs, and end the fragmentation
                 that impedes better healthcare.

               Second, Arizona is behind the curve. Boston has
               been thriving on a super-cluster of Meds and Eds for
               centuries. Others are far ahead as well. So simply
               playing “catch up” is not going to work. In order to be
               successful, Arizona must take its cue from younger
               regions such as Austin and San Diego. These two
               regions have “leapfrogged ahead” of the competition
               in science and technology by creating new assets
               such as research institutions, university strengthens
               and clinical institutions - and combining them with
               existing assets in new ways.

               Third, while Arizona is expected to experience robust
               employment growth in bioscience employment
               across key technical occupations spanning research,
               laboratory sciences, and production and
               management support, there is a clear mismatch in the
               specific areas of demand and key trends in supply.




14                           2005 Environmental Scan Report
                                             Environmental Scan

Examples of specific mismatches include the                 graduates in the biosciences in recent years.
following:                                                  Yet, a strong demand for research scientists is
  Laboratory Sciences - a significant and growing           expected in Arizona in the next several years, with
  bioscience occupational area for Arizona is found         most of the positions to be filled by recent
  in laboratory sciences, spanning both health care         advanced degree graduates.
  and research environments. Yet, few educational
  programs today address this need, and existing          Underpinning these demand and supply mismatches
                                                          in Arizona are deeper issues that must be addressed,
  programs (especially in the health care laboratory)
                                                          including the following:
  suffer from low enrollments.
                                                            The disconnect between bioscience employers
  Large Generation of Biology Students Lacking
                                                            and educational institutions in sharing
  Employable Laboratory Skills - Arizona stands
                                                            information, setting priorities, developing needed
  out in the grout of its biology degrees, particularly
                                                            programs and addressing curriculum
  at the undergraduate level, growing by 15
  percent compared to just 1 percent nationally.            Lack of capacity in the biosciences across the
  The number of biology-related majors now stands           educational system, especially for specialized
  at nearly 900 annually in Arizona. However,               programs and advanced degrees.
  these biology students are generally poorly
  prepared to undertake the hands-on laboratory             Limited Awareness by Arizona residents-
  work required in healthcare and research settings.        particularly school-age youth and those seeking
  In addition, the trend in Arizona suggests that           new careers—of the opportunities to pursue
  there are fewer laboratory instructional                  bioscience careers, and a need for proactive steps
  experiences for students in Arizona.                      to increase access to these career opportunities,
                                                            especially among minority populations.
  Educational/Training Curricula in Regulatory
                                                          Despite these challenges, the Greater Phoenix region
  Affairs and Quality Assurance for Medical
                                                          has made progress in the growth of the bio-industry
  Devices - Beyond the fact that medial devices are
                                                          sector, from efforts to attract top companies to the
  Arizona’s largest non-clinical bioscience industry      formation of research organizations to support the
  and production workers are the largest                  biosciences. Greater Phoenix recently succeeded in
  occupational group employed by bioscience               attracting both the International Genomics Consortium
                                                          (IGC) and the Translational Genomics Research
  employers, there is no active effort to provide
                                                          Institute (TGen) to the region. IGC will elevate the
  training for workers entering that highly regulated
                                                          status of bio-industry in the region with its medical
  environment with specific standards.                    research expanding upon the Human Genome Project.
                                                          TGen was formed by several statewide organizations
  Graduate Degree Program in Biosciences as               and is dedicated to the diagnosis and treatment of
  Demand in Arizona is Soaring - Arizona has              diseases through the understanding of genetics.
  recorded a sharp decline in Ph.D. and master’s


 2005 Environmental Scan Report                                                                             15
                                             Environmental Scan

Located in downtown Phoenix, the research institute is      Advanced Business Services
helping to put Arizona on the biotech map. Not only is      The Advanced Business Services cluster includes
the institute making significant advances in areas such     financial institutions in the credit, lending, collections,
as Alzheimer’s and multiple sclerosis, the institute has    investments, and brokerage sectors. The industry
created two spin-offs, lured a biotech firm to Phoenix,     includes general office, data centers, regional and
helped spark the expansion of medical-device giant          corporate headquarters operations. Employers in this
W.L. Gore & Associates in Flagstaff and the formation       cluster include customer contact centers, data
of the a drug discovery institute in Tucson (Arizona        processing centers, financial institutions, insurance
Republic, 2005).                                            companies, and real estate firms. Greater Phoenix has
                                                            a well-established base of firms in the advanced
    What programs, courses and training should PC           business services industry, including Wells Fargo,
    consider to prepare individuals to work in the          Bank One, American Express, Discover Financial
    bio-industry?                                           Services, DHL Worldwide Express, and USAA.
                                                            Newcomers include AGL networks and Pacifica
    How can PC attract faculty and students to              Texas.
    support the growing demands of the bio-industry
                                                            High-Tech Manufacturing
    segment?
                                                            The High-Tech cluster includes the computer
                                                            hardware, electronic equipment, semiconductor,
    What partnerships are available to PC to
                                                            telecommunications, and related industries. Greater
    improve the current disconnect between
                                                            Phoenix has a well-established base of firms in the
    bioscience employers and educational                    high tech manufacturing industry, including Intel,
    institutions?                                           Motorola, Microchip Technology, and ON
                                                            Semiconductor. High-tech manufacturing industries
                                                            in Greater Phoenix employ over 53,800 people in
Aerospace                                                   over 640 firms.
The Aerospace cluster includes manufacturing firms
involved in the production of aircraft, aircraft engines,   Software
guided missiles, space vehicles, space vehicle              The Software cluster includes businesses that
propulsion units, as well as search and navigation          develop, market or distribute software products for
equipment. Greater Phoenix has a number of                  business, scientific or personal use. These business
qualities that make it very suitable for aerospace. It      provide products for a wide variety of platforms
has a well-established base of firms in both aerospace      including consumer electronics, personal computers,
manufacturing and services, including Boeing and            workstations, mini-computers, and mainframe
America West. Because of Greater Phoenix's                  computers. Greater Phoenix has a well-established
suitability for aerospace, a number of businesses           base of firms in software and high-tech industries
have opened new facilities. Regional Airline                including Motorola, Intel, JDA Software, McKesson
Academy chose Mesa as the location for its second           Corp., ON Semiconductor, and Medtronics.
flight training school. Comtek, a Canadian company          Increasing demand for bandwidth and speed is
that repairs, engineers, and manufactures advanced          expected to exceed current capacity in the next two
composite materials, recently opened its US                 to three years, creating demand for more computer-
headquarters in Phoenix.                                    related occupations in the near future. Greater



  16                                                                       2005 Environmental Scan Report
                                           Environmental Scan

Phoenix is well positioned to meet this increase in       jobs are plentiful in Arizona, high-paying ones are not.
demand in computer related fields. With a current         The state’s average wage of $33,704 in 2002 lagged
workforce of 1.8 million, Maricopa County's               the national average by 7 percent, despite having
employment number is expected to increase about           risen an inflation-adjusted 24 percent compared to
15.2% by 2010, providing a new pool of workers to         1991 (Morrison Institute, 2005). The table below
support (and use the services of) the software            identifies the 10 fastest growing occupations in
industry.                                                 Arizona from 2003-2013. It should be noted that all
                                                          ten occupational fields are healthcare service related.


                                                            10 Fastest Growing Occupations 2003 – 2013
    What programs, courses and training should PC
                                                              Occupation                Employment      Change
    consider to prepare individuals to work in the
    identified industry clusters?                                                     2003    2013    Number Percent

                                                          Physician Assistants        2,341   4,178    1,837   78%
    What continuing education courses should be           Medical Assistants          11,652 20,649   8,997    77%
    offered to provide the necessary software skills
                                                          Respiratory Therapy
    to individuals in this service segment?               Technicians                  813    1,426    613     75%

                                                          Medical Records & Health
                                                          Information Technician      3,137   5,397   2,260    72%

                                                          Dental Assistants           5,239   8,963   3,724    71%

WORKFORCE                                                 Dental Hygienists           1,720   2,942    1,222   71%

                                                          Respiratory Therapists      1,285   2,197    912     71%
Workforce development will be critical to a successful
economy. Since the 1980s, increases in global             Physical Therapists Aides   1,336   2,227    891     67%

competition have altered the underlying structure of      Physical Therapists
the existing economy in ways that have made               Assistants                  1,535   2,544    1,009   66%

postsecondary education a fundamental component           Radiation Therapists         538    890      352     65%
of the workforce. Many of the students enrolling in
postsecondary education will be students who are
opting to go to college because it has become such        Healthcare       - excerpts from MCCD 2004-05 Healthcare

an important prerequisite for good jobs in today’s        Education Plan

knowledge-based economy.                                  With continued efforts to control healthcare costs
                                                          more healthcare related occupations, mostly
Nationally the workforce will grow 12% or 17.4            technicians, aides, and assistants will grow even
million for a total of 162.3 million workers. The         more rapidly. More highly paid healthcare
greatest employment growth is likely to be in service     professional such as dentists and physical therapist
industries, particularly education, health services and   will be filled instead with dental hygienist and
professional/business services. In 2003 Arizona           physical therapist assistants. The number of medical
ranked 2nd in job growth. According to Newsweek           records and health information technicians employed
Magazine, greater Phoenix is estimated to be the 2nd      will grow more rapidly as well, due to the need to
largest “job engine” in the U.S. through 2025. While      maintain records for the increasing number of
                                                          healthcare tests and procedures.


 2005 Environmental Scan Report                                                                                  17
                                            Environmental Scan

In 2000, the national supply of full-time registered       percentage of uncertified teachers in the classroom
nurses was estimated at 1.89 million while the             due to the high number of retiring teachers, the low
demand was estimated at 2 million, a shortage of           number of replacements and hard-to fill jobs (MCCD
110,000 (6 percent). This shortage is predicted to         Occupational Master Plan).
grow relatively slowly and reach approximately 12
percent by 2010. At this point, demand will begin to       Community colleges will play an instrumental role in
exceed supply at an accelerated rate and by 2015 the       responding to the projected teacher shortages over
shortage will have almost quadrupled to 20 percent.        the next ten years. Statistics indicate that community
Arizona is currently identified as a state with a          colleges could represent a source of more teachers
shortage of FTE registered nurses. In 2000, there          than they have historically delivered to U.S.
were 28,575 FTE registered nurses in the state,            classrooms (AACC, 2005). In fact, the Education
whereas the demand for nurses was 34,559. This             Commission of the States estimates that community
represents a shortage of nearly 6,000 nurses (17           colleges could recruit approximately 500,000
percent). In 2005, the shortage of nurses is expected      teachers by focusing on the 10 percent of freshman
to increase to 21 percent and by 2010, Arizona will        who indicate an interest in teaching elementary or
have a shortage of 11,000 (25 percent) nurses              secondary education (Shkodriani, 2004).
(Bureau of Health Professions, 2003).

Another profession impacted by a shortage of
healthcare workers is Medical Technicians (MTs).
Nationally, the vacancy rate for MTs is 7 percent, and
as high as 12 percent for those employed in hospitals.
It is estimated that Histology Technicians have a 9
percent vacancy rate. The U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics also estimates the need for MTs and
Medical Lab Technicians (MLTs) to be 12,000
annually. On average, only 5000 MTs and MLTs
graduate each year.

Teachers in Arizona
Nationally, the rapidly increasing Pre K-12 population
and the teacher attrition rate will result in a need for
It has become increasingly nearly 2.2 million new
apparent that a qualified     teachers over the next
                              decade. Similar to the
teaching force can have a
                              nation, the shortage of
very dramatic effect on
                              teaching staff in Arizona
student achievement and       is projected to be
the future of our country-    27,000 over the same
National Center for Teacher time period. Currently,
Education                     Arizona has the highest




  18                                                                     2005 Environmental Scan Report
                                          Environmental Scan




ECONOMY                                                 The cost of living is based on the price of basic
                                                        necessities such as groceries, housing, utilities,
According to the survey of households, Arizona’s        transportation and healthcare. The average for all
seasonally adjust unemployment rate for April 2005      locations in the index is 100. In 1998, the cost of
was 5.0 percent and the national rate was 5.2           living in Greater Phoenix was just above the national
percent. The April unemployment rate for Arizona        average. Now Greater Phoenix is slightly lower. Thus,
increased slightly to from 4.7 percent in March. Over   prices have increased more slowly in Phoenix than in
the past year, the unemployment rate has                the nation as a whole (Morrison, 2004).
remained lower than the national and state
rate, ranging from 3.6 to 4.4. The April 2005
employment rate (4.4) represents the highest
rate over the past year. Over the past few
months, both the State and Phoenix
employment rates have been increasing,
converging closer to the national employment
rate (Department of Economic Security,
2005).




 2005 Environmental Scan Report                                                                        19
                                           Environmental Scan

The median price of a preowned single family home         State Business Tax Climate Index, which measures
in greater Phoenix Area rose 27 percent from March        the impact on business of five major elements of the
2004 to March 2005. The median price for a new            tax system; the percentage of income taken by all
construction single family home in the greater            taxes, the individual income tax rates, the corporate
Phoenix Area rose 20 percent during the same time         income taxes, the sales tax rate, and the complexity of
period. Both the median sale price for an existing and    the tax system. In 2003 Arizona’s individual income
new home increased, 21 and 17 percent respectively.       tax collections were $377 per person, ranked 39th
                                                          highest nationally. This makes the tax environment
Arizona’s state and local tax burden percentage is just   for small businesses in Arizona competitive
above the national average (10.1 percent). Arizona        compared to other states.
Taxpayers pay $3,184 per-capita in state and local
taxes. Arizona ranks 19th in the Tax Foundation’s




    What strategies should Phoenix College
    implement to respond to the projected
    nursing shortage?

    What partnerships with business industries
    should PC explore to ensure that the college
    is preparing students for new occupations in
    technology-related fields?

    What organizations or business (local area
    business) can PC partner with to optimize
    our current and future programs in order
    to better prepare our students?

    What strategies does PC need to adopt to
    ensure that the institution is a leader in
    educating and preparing students for the
    new and changing demands of the
    workforce?

    How can Phoenix College respond to the
    increasing need for health care professionals
    and teachers in the state?




  20                                                                    2005 Environmental Scan Report
                                           Environmental Scan

ON THE HORIZON                                           NORTHERN ARIZONA UNIVERSITY
                                                         will broaden and enhance its statewide university
Public University Redesign                               presence     offering  premier    undergraduate,
In April 2004, a proposal was made to split Arizona      professional, doctoral, and master’s programs
State University’s (ASU) campus in West Phoenix          through 2+2 collaborations and distance learning,
(ASU West) into a stand-alone university and to          strengthened by the quality of undergraduate,
combine Northern Arizona University’s Yuma campus        graduate, and research programs on its Flagstaff
and the University of Arizona-South into a stand alone   Campus (Board of Regents, 2005).
university. Under this proposal, the tuition would be
cheaper at these two new universities and at NAU’s       Downtown Campus
main campus in Flagstaff. In April 2005, almost a        By 2020, the Arizona State University student
year after the proposal, the decision was made to not    population is expected to increase from 57,000 to
create any new universities. Instead, the roles of the   92,000, an increase of 61 percent. In an effort to
universities would define tuition costs. As a result,    manage this anticipated growth, Arizona State
ASU- Tempe and UA will have, generally, the highest      University, in conjunction with the City of Phoenix,
tuitions, reflecting the amount of capital-intensive     plans to develop a 15,000-student campus in the
research that occurs on those campuses that student      city’s downtown area. ASU will move five schools to
tuition dollars help subsidize. The tuition for NAU      the new downtown campus: the existing schools of
campus in Flagstaff, ASU-East and ASU-West will          Nursing, Journalism, and Public Programs, and the
generally be lower. Finally, NAU-Yuma, UA-South and      new University College and School of Global Health.
any “2+2” programs would have the lowest tuitions        With a goal of being “integrated into the fabric of the
(AZ Republic, 2005). Based on these changes the          city,” the campus will comprise an urban mix of
roles of each college will be as follows:                academic facilities, residential facilities, ground-level
                                                         dining and retail stores, park space, and open
THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA                                pedestrian spaces (Chronicle of Higher Education,
will proceed with its plans to become a premier          2004).
research university, adopting more rigorous
admissions requirements at both the undergraduate        Phoenix Biomedical Campus
and graduate levels. University of Arizona South will    Arizona State University and the University of Arizona
be developed as the college’s response to growing        will collaborate to create and operate the Phoenix
demand for accessible, lower-cost instruction at the     Biomedical Campus of the Arizona University System.
bachelor’s and master’s degree level.                    The new teaching and research center will contain
                                                         UA colleges of Medicine and Pharmacy and the ASU
ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY                                 College of Nursing. The process will be overseen by a
will become a premier metropolitan university            commission appointed by Governor Janet Napolitano
through its vision of “One University in Many Places.”   and is scheduled to open in Fall 2006 with
ASU at the Tempe Campus, ASU at the Downtown             approximately 24 students. According to the
Phoenix Campus, ASU at the West Campus, and ASU          Presidents of both universities, the partnership
at the Polytechnic Campus, each with its own well-       “maximizes collective assets and builds upon existing
defined mission.                                         biomedical capabilities throughout the state”
                                                         (Business Journal, 2004).




 2005 Environmental Scan Report                                                                             21
                                               Environmental Scan

Phoenix Mayor Initiatives                                     An Emerging Trend- excerpt from Maricopa College 2004
Adding to the changes in downtown Phoenix, Mayor              Workforce Development
Phil Gordon introduced the idea of an “opportunity            Nano, in Nanofabrication and Nanotechnology,
corridor” that would run from the state capitol               comes from nanometer (nm)--the term for one
complex east to Downtown Tempe. The Northern                  billionth of a meter. Nanofabrication and nanotech
border would be Van Buren Street and the southern             are engineering at the atomic length scale, a size
the Salt River. Gordon envisions a 1,500-square mile          range, which until recently, was only available to
corridor full of a variety of businesses, but with a focus    nature. Engineering such small things opens the door
on the Valley’s developing biotech sector. The light          to a multitude of new opportunities. These include
rail project, which is not scheduled for completion           making extremely fine diameter but incredibly strong
until 2007 or 2008 will run down Washington Street            fibers atom by atom, extremely small probes that can
in the heart of the corridor.                                 look at individual strands of DNA for uses such as
                                                              disease detection, and man-made capillary systems
Electronic Library                                            to bring nutrients to man-created replacement
In December 2004, Google announced an ambitious               organs.
new plan to start converting millions of books into
digital files in partnership with several major libraries,
including the New York Public Library and the libraries
at Harvard, Stanford and Oxford. The idea of making              How will recent changes to the structure of the
books available online is not new, but this plan                 state’s three public universities impact Phoenix
represents an enormous shift in scale, so enormous               College?
that if it is carried out successfully, it may redefine the
nature of the Internet and postsecondary institutions.
                                                                 How can PC support and build upon the
The library is a fundamental component of
                                                                 developments occurring in downtown Phoenix?
postsecondary institutions, and one of the basic tasks
these institutions perform is to preserve books and
                                                                 What opportunities exist for the college as a
control access to them. No matter how liberally an
institution chooses to define "access," its books are            result of the regional transportation plan?
restricted by geography at the very least. Google
wants to make the books it scans freely available in
searchable, full-text forms to anyone, anywhere, with
an Internet connection. It will also provide
information for finding the nearest copy of the real
physical book. Google says it will take six years to
scan some 15 million books. It will take even longer to
understand the cultural implications of admitting
everyone with Internet access to the contents of the
world's great research libraries (New York Times,
2004).




  22                                                                        2005 Environmental Scan Report
PHOENIX COLLEGE
     DATA
                                            Phoenix College Data

The following information provides demographic,              Headcount:
performance and feeder high school data for Phoenix
College (PC). The demographic and performance data           The Fall headcount for Phoenix College has fluctuated
provided is for Fall terms and includes multiple years       from 1995 to 2004, peaking in 2003 with 13,150
so that trends can be identified and discussed. The          students. In Fall 2004, there was a slight decrease in
purpose of this data is to supplement the                    enrollment, 3.2 percent or 430 students from the
environmental scan by providing an in depth                  2003 headcount figures. Fall 1997 represented the
understanding of the students Phoenix College                most significant decrease (6%) over the last decade.
serves. By examining these types of data the goal of         In general, the headcount trend for Phoenix College
this report is to assist the College in identifying          can be characterized by several consecutive years of
strengths and opportunities. In addition, throughout         enrollment increases, followed by a period of time
this section of the report we have included various          where enrollment declines. Over the past decade, day
statistics to highlight some of the College’s success.       enrollment has slightly outpaced evening enrollment.
                                                             The day enrollment for PC students has fluctuated
            Phoenix College Excellence:                      between 52 and 56 percent. The table below
     The average GPA for the 2003 and 2004 ACE               highlights the headcount (day and evening) for
        Cohorts were 3.5 and 3.9 respectively.               Phoenix College from Fall 1995 to 2004.




  Year           1995     1996      1997      1998       1999     2000      2001      2002      2003     2004
  Day            6,422    6,545     5,859     6,203      6,288    6,504     6,417     7,066     6,967    6,929
  Evening        5,257    4,985     4,960     5,275      5,678    5,882     5,879     6,014     6,183    5,791
  Total         11,679   11,530    10,819     11,478     11,966   12,386   12,296    13,080    13,150    12,720


  % Day         55.0%     56.8%    54.2%      54.0%      52.5%    52.5%     52.2%     54.0%    53.0%     54.5%
  % Evening     45.0%     43.2%    45.8%      46.0%      47.5%    47.5%     47.8%     46.0%     47.0%    45.5%


 2005 Environmental Scan Report                                                                              23
24
                                 Fall 2004 45th Day Headcount
                                                12,720 Total
                                      Source:IRDW AV Student Courses
                                                 IAP Office




                                                                                                                              Paradise Valley Community College




                                                                                                               North

                                                                                  Glendale Community College




                                                                                              Northwest                  Northeast
                                                                                                                                                                        Scottsdale Community College


                                                                 West
                                                                                                               Phoenix College
                                            Estrella Mountain Community College
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Phoenix College Data




                                                                                                                                                 Gateway Community College


                                                                                                                           Southeast
                                                                                                                                                    Rio Salado Community College
                                                                                                    Southwest
                                                                                                                                                                    Mesa Community College



                                                                                                                       South Mountain Communiy College      Tempe




2005 Environmental Scan Report
                                          Phoenix College Data




Similar to community colleges across the nation, 75      past five years this group has increased 24 percent.
percent of students attend part-time. Although three-    The following chart provides information about the
quarters of our students are part-time, it should be     age composition of students for Fall 2004.
noted that the number of full-time students has been
increasing over the past few years. Since Fall 2000,
the percentage of students attending PC full-time has
increased 24 percent. The table above highlights the
full-time and part-time enrollment of PC students over
the past decade.

Demographics:
Phoenix College has a diverse demographic
composition. From Fall 1995 to 2003 the median age
of students has remained constant at 25. Fall 2004
represented the first semester in which the median
age decreased to 24. This means that for the previous
semester students enrolling at Phoenix College were
slightly younger when compared to prior years. Since
Fall 2000, the representation of most age categories              Phoenix College Excellence:
have remained relatively constant. There has been a        During the 2003-2004 school year, Phoenix College
notable increase in students ages 50-59. Over the                awarded 2100 degrees and certificates.



 2005 Environmental Scan Report                                                                          25
                                        Phoenix College Data




There have been no major changes in the gender         next few decades. Asian/Pacific Islanders are also
composition of students attending Phoenix College      expected to represent an increasing number of the
over the past decade. Over the past three years the    students attending postsecondary education over the
percentage of male students has remained constant      next few years. The Asian enrollment trends at
whereas the percentage of female students has          Phoenix College are not consistent with national
increased slightly. This may be partially due to the                                          trends, thus
decrease in ‘undeclared’ students. If enrollment                                              suggesting
trends for Arizona follow national projections,                                               the need for
Phoenix College should anticipate an increase in                                              strategies to
female enrollment over the next few years. The                                                attract     a
following table provides enrollment data by gender                                            greater
for the past decade.                                                                          number of
                                                                                              students
As the nation and the state of Arizona continue to                                            from     this
become more diverse, Phoenix College has also                                                 minority
experienced changes in its racial and ethnic                                                  group. The
composition. Over the past decade the percentage of                                           percentage
American Indians has ranged from 3.4 to 3.9 percent    of Black (1%) and Hispanic (9%) students has
of the total student population. The percentage of     increased over the past decade. The growth of the
Asian/Pacific Islander students has decreased from     Hispanic population represents the largest increase
4.2 percent (Fall 1995) to 2.4 percent (Fall 2004).    of any group and is consistent with national trends.
Nationally, this group is one of the fastest growing   The percentage of White students has decreased by
populations and is anticipated to continue over the    20 percent during this same time period.

 26                                                                 2005 Environmental Scan Report
                                            Phoenix College Data

Performance:                                                    as students who are enrolled in Fall semester and
                                                                return the next semester (Spring) or the following Fall
The National Community College Benchmark Project                semester. Although the persistence rates for both
(NCCBP) provides community colleges with                        next term and Fall-to-Fall have increased since Fall
opportunities to report outcome and effectiveness               1998, Phoenix College is well below the median
data, establish benchmarks, and make comparisons                persistence rates (Next Term=68% and Fall-to-
with other participating community colleges. The                Fall=59%) of all other college that participated in the
Phoenix College data related to persistence and                 NCCBP for Fall 2003. The table below provides
retention is based on this study. Persistence is defined        persistence data from Fall 1998 to 2003.

                               Total Who           Total                       Total Who
                Total Credit   Graduated        Students        Next Term      Graduated          Total Who        Fall to Fall
    Term        Students at    Before the     Who Enrolled Persistence         Before the         Enrolled in     Persistence
                End of Fall    Next Term       in the Next    Rate                 Next Fall     the Next Fall       Rate
                   Term         (Spring)      Term (Spring)                         Term               Term

  Fall 1998       12,118           367             6,506          55.4%              872               4,220          37.5%
  Fall 1999       12,579           316             6,746          55.0%              839               4,370          37.2%
  Fall 2000       12,883           385             6,871          55.0%               923              4,552          38.1%
  Fall 2001       12,832           373             7,026          56.4%              1060              4,768          40.5%
  Fall 2002       13,587           490             7,697          58.8%              1208              5,057          40.9%
  Fall 2003       13,548           544             7,701          59.2%              1308              5,062          41.4%


The table below reports retention and success rates             participants (88%). In contrast, the Fall 2003 enrollee
for students enrolled in credit, college-level courses          success rate for PC (76%) was slightly higher than the
during fall semesters. For this report ‘retention rate’         median rate during this same time period for all other
is defined as course completion at the end of the term          NCCBP institutions (74%)
and ‘enrollee success rate’ represents students that
enrolled in courses during the fall term, including                         Phoenix College Excellence:
those that withdrew, and completed those courses                       Dental Hygiene students perform above the
with A, B, C, or P grades. The Fall 2003 enrollee                     national average on the National Board Dental
retention rate for PC (83%) was slightly lower than the               Hygiene Examination (85.2, 83.3 respectively).
median for other NCCBP community college

                      Total Grades
      Term              in Credit,       Total A, B, C, D, F,   Total A, B, C, P       Retention Rate         Enrollee Success
                      College-level          P Grades              Grades                                          Rate
                         Courses

   Fall 1999              28545                23,098               21,040                     80.9%               73.7%
   Fall 2000              29065                23,777               21,672                     81.8%               74.6%
   Fall 2001              28175                23,183               21,114                     82.3%               74.9%
   Fall 2002              30474                25,408               23,170                     83.4%               76.0%
   Fall 2003              30766                25,789               23,604                     83.8%               76.7%
   Fall 2004              29178                24,051               22,186                     82.4%               76.0%

  2005 Environmental Scan Report                                                                                          27
                                          Phoenix College Data

Feeder High School Data:                                            Phoenix College Excellence:
                                                          Phoenix College has the only American Bar Association
This section of the report is based on data for the         approved paralegal program at a public institution
Phoenix Union High School District (PUHSD). Since                               in Arizona.
the 1998-99 academic year, enrollment at PUHSD
has steadily increased. During the 2003-04 academic      and ethnicity for each feeder high school. Beginning
year there were 23,423 (highpoint) students enrolled     with the class of 2002, the Arizona Department of
at PUHSD. Of the total students, nearly three-quarters   Education has changed the methodology for
(72.2%) were Hispanic, 12.6 percent were White,          reporting graduation rates. Prior to this class, the four-
10.3 percent were Black, 3.2 percent were Native         year graduation rate included students that finished
American and 1.6 percent were Asian. Minority            school the summer following their senior year. This is
students at PUHSD account for 87.3 percent of the        no longer the case. The cut-off for graduates being
total student enrollment. More than half of the          included in the 2004 graduation rate is now the end
students (54%) indicated that the primary language       of the spring semester. The table below shows the
spoken at home is Spanish and even more students         graduation rate at the end of the 2004 spring
(61%) are free and reduced lunch participants, a         semester. It should be noted that enrollment of
standard indicator of low income. The following table    recent high school graduates at Phoenix College have
provides enrollment information by grade, gender         decreased in the past four to six years.


      School           Class Size       # of Graduates   Four-Year Grad      # Enrolled @ PC      % Grads @ PC
                                                             Rate              (Fall 2004)
Alhambra                 597                 401            67.2%                  35                   9%
Browne                   602                 404            67.1%                  27                   7%
Camelback                501                 325            64.9%                  29                   9%
Central                  521                 305            58.5%                  50                  16%
Chavez                   499                 332            66.5%                  14                   4%
Hayden                   536                 368            68.7%                  46                  13%
Maryvale                 538                 406            75.5%                  31                   8%
Metro Tech               255                 174            68.2%                  27                  16%
North                    579                 353            61.0%                  41                  12%
South                    517                 379            73.3%                  21                   6%
Total (District)        5,145               3,447           67.0%                  321                  9%

The overall academic dropout rate for PUHSD was          following page provides dropout information by
4.8 percent. Males (5.6%) were more likely to dropout    grade, gender and ethnicity for each high school.
than females (3.9%). Of all the racial and ethnic
groups, Native Americans had the highest dropout
rate (6.7%) followed by Hispanics (4.8%), Blacks                    Phoenix College Excellence:
(4.5%), Whites (4.2%) and Asians (3.7%). Students at        In 2004, Phoenix College nursing students had an
PUHSD were also more likely to dropout in the twelfth     88 percent first time pass rate on the National Council
grade (5.8%) than any other grade. The table on the                  Licensure Examination (NCLEX).


 28                                                                       2005 Environmental Scan Report
                                            Phoenix College Data




                                                         successfully completing courses, performance on the
          Phoenix College Excellence:                    Stanford 9 is considerably low. Overall, PUHSD
   Phoenix College athletes are recognized by the All-   scored 23 percentile in Reading, 43 percentile in
                  American Scholars.                     Math, and 24 percentile in Language.


The average GPA for PUHSD is 2.4 and the grade
distribution for the second semester was as follows: A            Phoenix College Excellence:
(22.3%), B (25.4%), C (23.8%), D (16.1) and F (11.6%).       Compared to other colleges participating in the
This data shows that about 72 percent of the                 National Community College Benchmark Project
students are successfully completing their high                (NCCBP) Phoenix College ranked high in the
school courses. Although many students are                      percent of minority credit students and the
                                                                      percent of minority employees.




 2005 Environmental Scan Report                                                                            29
CENSUS DATA
                                                                       Census Data

This is an analysis of the 1990 Census Data, the 1995                                      The Phoenix College service area is divided into seven
Special Census and the 2000 Census Data for the                                            segments. Each segment contains more than one zip
Phoenix College (PC) service area. The State Data                                          code. The student population residing in the Phoenix
Center and the Office of Institutional Effectiveness at                                    College service area is greater than 75% of the total
Glendale Community College collaborated to create a                                        student population for Fall 2004. It should be noted
database for the 1995 Special Census Data.                                                 that Phoenix College also serves a variety of areas
Comparisons for each census year are made between                                          other than the zip codes listed. The breakdown of the
Maricopa County and the Phoenix College service                                            Phoenix College service area is as follows:
area.


                                                    Phoenix College Service Area:
Northwest Core           85013, 85015, 85019, 85021, 85031,                               North                             85022, 85023, 85027, 85028, 85029,
                         85051, 85301                                                                                       85032, 85053, 85038
Northeast Core           85012, 85014, 85016, 85018, 85020                                West                              85033, 85037, 85302, 85302, 85304,
                                                                                                                            85323, 85345
Southwest Core           85003, 85007, 85009, 85035, 85041
                                                                                          Tempe                             85281, 85282, 85283, 85284
Southeast Core           85004, 85006, 85008, 85034, 85040

  Phoenix College Service Area
            Source:IRDW FTSE Details
                    IAP Office




                                                                                            85027



                                                              85308                                                              PV


                                                                               85053         85023
                                                                                                              85022               85032

                                                                                            North
                                                                   85304                  85029

                                                                                                                                 85028
                                                                    GC
                                         85345                                                                85020
                                                                   85302        85051           85021

                                                                           Northwest                        Northeast
                                                 85303             85301
                                                                                                                        85016
                                                                                                                                                                 SC
                                                                                                     85012
                                                                             85019 85017 85015 85013    85014

            EM                                     85033             85031                  Phoenix College                                85018

                             West
                                       85037

                                                           85035
                                                                                                                85006                     85008
                                                                                                      85003 85004
                                                                                  85009           85007                     GW
                                                                                                               Southeast                                 85281

                                                                                                                                                   RS
                                                                               Southwest
                                                                                                                          85034
                 85323

                                                                                                                         85040                          Tempe    MC
                                                                                                                                                         85282
                                                                                        85041

                                                                                                                      SM
                                                                                                                                                         85283



                                                                                                                                                         85284




 2005 Environmental Scan Report                                                                                                                                       31
                                                Census Data

SUMMARY                                                  increased 6 % in Maricopa County, there was
                                                         considerable growth (64%) in the PC service area for
Population: The population of Maricopa County            this group.
increased 66% between 1990 and 2000. This
population increase was also seen in the Phoenix         Income/Poverty: The median household income
College service area with an increase of 28% during      increased for all areas except the Southwest which
the same time period. While each segment of the          had a decrease of 8 percent (-$2,493). The area with
college’s service area increased over the past decade,   the largest increase in median income was the West
the West (44%) and North (33%) areas experienced         (55%), followed by the Northeast (41%). The percent
the largest increase in population.                      of households below poverty level for the Phoenix
                                                         College service area ranged from 7% to 26%. The
The ratio of females to males in Maricopa County and     North (7%) and the West (9%) had the lowest
the Phoenix College service area have remained           percentage of poverty, while the Southwest (26%)
relatively the same from 1990-2000. Although each        and the Southeast (23%) had the highest percentage
age category for the Phoenix College service area and    of poverty.
Maricopa County experienced an increase over the
past decade, the age category ’55-59’ had the largest    Housing: The percentage of vacant homes within the
increase in Maricopa County, and the largest increase    Phoenix College service area decreased from 1990 to
in the Phoenix College service area is the 5-13 age      2000. Each service area decreased at least 4% over
group, potential community college students within       the past decade with the highest decrease occurring
the next 5 years.                                        in the northwest and southwest. The steady increase
                                                         in population has also impacted the percentage of
The most notable growth in ethnicity was the             owner-occupied homes. The area with the largest
Hispanic population with an increase of 160% in          increase in owner-occupied homes was the West
Maricopa County and 120% in the Phoenix College          (8%) which corresponds with the rapid population
service area. Although the Asian population only         boom being experienced in that area.




 32                                                                   2005 Environmental Scan Report
                                                                                                  POPULATION
                                                                                                                         Change    % Change
                                                                          1990                  1995           2000   1990-2000   1990-2000

                                       Northwest                       234,875               260,709       299,762       64,887        28%
                                       Northeast                       120,283               133,914       144,361       24,078        20%
                                       Southwest                       130,464               143,360       158,276       27,812        21%
                                       Southeast                       130,322               146,129       164,492       34,170        26%
                                       North                            261,155              306,552       346,631       85,476        33%
                                       West                            179,821               203,218       259,470       79,649        44%
                                       Tempe                           147,760               159,230       163,676       15,916        11%

                                       Total Service Area            1,204,680              1,353,112     1,536,668     331,988        28%




2005 Environmental Scan Report
                                       Maricopa County               2,122,043              2,551,765     3,518,335   1,396,292        66%




                                 Source: Census 2000 Summary File 3 (SF 3) - Sample Data,                                             Phoenix College




33
                                 Census 2000 Summary File 1 (SF 1) 100-Percent Data                                                    IAP, 5/19/05
34
                                                                                  GENDER COMPOSITION OF POPULATION
                                                                               1990 Census                    1995 Census            2000 Census
                                                                            Males      Females             Males      Females      Males     Females

                                         Northwest                       114,781             120,094     131,017      129,692    151,374     148,388
                                         Northeast                        57,894              62,389      66,988       66,927     72,786      71,575
                                         Southwest                        67,269              63,195      76,448       66,912     84,580      73,696
                                         Southeast                        65,697              64,625      75,665       70,464     85,852      78,640
                                         North                           128,698             132,457     153,064      153,487    172,570     174,061
                                         West                             88,343              91,478     101,373      101,845    128,579     130,891
                                         Tempe                            75,971              71,789      82,946       76,284     84,667      79,009

                                         Total Service Area              598,653              606,027    687,500      665,612     780,408     756,260
                                         Maricopa County               1,045,750            1,076,293   1,281,574   1,270,191   1,763,979   1,754,356




                                 Source: Census 2000 Summary File 3 (SF 3) - Sample Data,                                                         Phoenix College




2005 Environmental Scan Report
                                 Census 2000 Summary File 1 (SF 1) 100-Percent Data                                                                IAP, 5/19/05
                                                                                            COMPOSITION OF AGE




2005 Environmental Scan Report
                                 Source: Census 2000 Summary File 3 (SF 3) - Sample Data,                        Phoenix College




35
                                 Census 2000 Summary File 1 (SF 1) 100-Percent Data                               IAP, 5/19/05
                                                                                            COMPOSITION OF ETHNICITY




36
                                 Source: Census 2000 Summary File 3 (SF 3) - Sample Data,                              Phoenix College




2005 Environmental Scan Report
                                 Census 2000 Summary File 1 (SF 1) 100-Percent Data                                     IAP, 5/19/05
                                                                                            MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                                                                                       1990            2000       CHANGE
                                                                                     CENSUS          CENSUS     1990-2000      % CHANGE

                                                     NORTHWEST                       $25,772         $33,191        $7,419          29%
                                                     NORTHEAST                       $27,291         $38,459      $11,168           41%
                                                     SOUTHWEST                       $30,326         $27,833       -$2,493           -8%
                                                     SOUTHEAST                       $21,394         $26,039        $4,645          22%
                                                     NORTH                           $36,533         $48,900      $12,367           34%
                                                     WEST                            $29,894         $46,434      $16,540           55%
                                                     TEMPE                           $40,444         $53,117      $12,673           31%

                                                     TOTAL SERVICE AREA              $30,236         $39,139          $8,903       29%




2005 Environmental Scan Report
                                 Source: Census 2000 Summary File 3 (SF 3) - Sample Data,                                                  Phoenix College




37
                                 Census 2000 Summary File 1 (SF 1) 100-Percent Data                                                         IAP, 5/19/05
38
                                                                                                        POVERTY LEVEL
                                                                # Population for            # Population w/   % Population w/
                                                              whom Poverty Status            Income Below      Income Below        Total      # Households    % Households
                                                                 is Determined                   Poverty           Poverty       Households   Below Poverty   Below Poverty

                                 Northwest                           235,945                   44,985              19%            84,344         13,035            15%
                                 Northeast                           142,928                   19,513              14%            65,536          7,027            11%
                                 Southwest                           149,385                   44,397              30%            41,306         10,643            26%
                                 Southeast                           129,502                   36,269              28%            40,249          9,331            23%
                                 North                               344,139                   28,434               8%           133,439          9,353             7%
                                 West                                221,513                   25,007              11%            63,599          5,506             9%
                                 Tempe                               158,108                   23,295              15%            64,632          9,144            14%

                                 Total Service Area               1,381,520                   221,900              16%            493,105       64,039             13%
                                 Maricopa County                  2,834,821                   324,581              11%          1,058,343       99,833              9%




                                 Source: Census 2000 Summary File 3 (SF 3) - Sample Data,                                                                      Phoenix College




2005 Environmental Scan Report
                                 Census 2000 Summary File 1 (SF 1) 100-Percent Data                                                                             IAP, 5/19/05
                                                                                               HOUSING/VACANCY
                                                                          Housing Units                           Vacant Units                  % Vacant

                                                                   1990          1995           2000      1990        1995       2000    1990    1995           2000

                                 Northwest                      109,618      108,914         105,779     14,868       8,902      6,860   14%       8%              6%
                                 Northeast                       65,016       66,692          65,757      8,538       5,669      6,032   13%       9%              9%
                                 Southwest                       46,086       45,028           41,130     6,560       3,957      2,974   14%       9%              7%
                                 Southeast                       53,502       52,813          49,319      8,645       4,319      3,927   16%       8%              8%
                                 North                          111,677      124,843         133,253     11,979       7,308      7,733   11%       6%              6%
                                 West                            68,285       72,685          83,177      7,489       4,117      4,051   11%       6%              5%
                                 Tempe                           62,772       64,535          64,717      5,956       3,233      3,539    9%       5%              5%




2005 Environmental Scan Report
                                 Total Service Area            516,957 535,509                543,132    64,036     37,504     35,116    12%       7%             6%
                                 Maricopa County               952,018 1,068,590            1,288,170   144,478    110,860    174,724    15%      10%            14%




                                 Source: Census 2000 Summary File 3 (SF 3) - Sample Data,                                                               Phoenix College




39
                                 Census 2000 Summary File 1 (SF 1) 100-Percent Data                                                                      IAP, 5/19/05
40
                                                                                                 OWNER-OCCUPIED
                                                                       Total Households                 Owner-Occupied Households       % Owner-Occupied

                                                                   1990          1995           2000      1990      1995      2000    1990   1995           2000

                                 Northwest                       94,750       100,012         98,919     48,894    49,747    52,837   52%     50%            53%
                                 Northeast                       56,478        61,023         59,725     29,405    30,954    32,676   52%     51%            55%
                                 Southwest                       39,526        41,071         38,156     22,169    22,772    23,326   56%     55%            61%
                                 Southeast                       44,857        48,494         45,392     21,089    21,708    22,703   47%     45%            50%
                                 North                           99,698       117,535        125,520     64,951    79,411    89,347   65%     68%            71%
                                 West                            60,796        68,568         79,126     42,371    47,344    61,727   70%     69%            78%
                                 Tempe                           56,816        61,302          61,178    29,480    31,798    33,208   52%     52%            54%

                                 Total Service Area            452,921       498,005          508,016   258,359   283,734   315,824   57%     57%           62%
                                 Maricopa County               807,540       955,021        1,113,446   509,830   623,649   880,627   63%     65%           79%




                                 Source: Census 2000 Summary File 3 (SF 3) - Sample Data,                                                           Phoenix College




2005 Environmental Scan Report
                                 Census 2000 Summary File 1 (SF 1) 100-Percent Data                                                                  IAP, 5/19/05
                                                   Conclusion

In the coming years, the various trends occurring at the national, state and local level will impact Phoenix College
both directly and indirectly. As the nature of postsecondary education continues to evolve, successful institutions
will be those that understand the needs of the communities they serve and those that provide both traditional and
non-traditional learning environments within the constraints of a rapidly changing external environment. The time
frame within which Phoenix College will have to respond to these challenges will be increasingly compressed,
thus placing greater emphasis on understanding the institutions strengths and opportunities in order to establish
priorities and strategic direction.


    STRENGTHS


        The Hispanic population at Phoenix College has been increasing (and will continue to increase)
        similar to national, state and local trends.

        As the state’s demographic profile becomes increasingly diverse, Phoenix College is consistent with
        this trend (faculty, staff and student population).


        College enrollment is expected to rise for the next decade, and more traditional aged (18-24)
        students will lead the trend. This group is currently the 5-13 year old age group (baby boomlets)
        and one of the fastest growing segments in Phoenix.

        As baby boomers near retirement, the educational needs of this group will be different than
        previous generations.


        Phoenix College’s existing health care programs represent a strong foundation to build upon in
        order to meet the projected demands for these occupational areas.

    OPPORTUNITIES


        The Asian population is rapidly increasing both nationally and in the greater Phoenix area, while
        enrollment for this group is declining at Phoenix College.


        The immigrant population is expected to increase valley-wide.


        There will be more non-traditional student enrollment at community colleges in the future.


        Phoenix College’s designation as a Hispanic Serving Institution (HSI) allows the institution to
        compete for additional funding resources.




  2005 Environmental Scan Report                                                                              41
                                           Conclusion



     Recent changes in the financial aid formula may adversely impact student eligibility.


     The southeast and southwest service areas for Phoenix College are typically low median
     income households.


     The low performance scores on standardized testing for students at Phoenix College feeder
     high schools (PUHSD) may result in increased enrollment in developmental courses.


     High school graduations rates at PUHSD are low and enrollment of these potential students
     at Phoenix College are even lower.

     The projected demand of the health care industry is expected to exceed the current supply,
     particularly in nursing and medical technicians.


     As a result of the projected teacher shortage, community colleges will play an important
     role in preparing future educators.


     Arizona is expected to experience employment growth in the Bioscience industry. Despite
     this projected growth, Arizona is not prepared to meet this need.

     Advancements in technology will continue to occur, requiring new and changing skill sets.


     A high percentage of students are classified as ‘undeclared’ in the Student Information
     System, enables.




42                                                                2005 Environmental Scan Report
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  2005 Environmental Scan Report                                                                        43
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 46                                                                       2005 Environmental Scan Report
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