External Environmental Scan by mmo13137

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									               Environmental Scan for Los Medanos College
An important chapter in an Educational Master Plan is an environmental scan
that describes the external and internal environment of the college. In general,
the external environmental scan consists of examining the surrounding
community and its projections such as housing, population, jobs and high school
graduates. The internal environmental scan examines trends on student
enrollment, characteristics of the student population, and outcomes, such as
retention rates, course success rates, graduation rates, transfer rates, and
degrees attainment. The information provided in this scan could also be used for
the development of new centers and programs and for other institutional
initiatives such as enrollment management.

The External Environment:

Los Medanos College is located in the East part of Contra Costa County, serving
the communities of Antioch, Bay Point, Bethel Island, Brentwood, Byron,
Discovery Bay, Knightsen, Oakley, and Pittsburg. The growth in the east part of
Contra Costa County has been tremendous in the last 10 years, and because of
the available land, it is expected to continue to grow. According to the
Association of Bay Area Governments, East Contra Costa will continue to
dominate growth for the next 25 years, particularly in housing and population.

Household Projections: Households in East county are expected to grow 60% in
the next 25 years – from 2000 to 2025 (Graph 1). Most growth will occur in the
areas of Brentwood (128%) Rural East (86%), and Oakley (61%) -- Table 1.
                       Graph 1. Households Projections: 1990-2025
                                 Contra Costa County
           250,000


           200,000


           150,000


           100,000


            50,000

                                                                                               2000-2025
               -                                                                             Percent Change
                        1990      2000      2005      2010      2015      2020      2025
      West County      79,653    84,913    88,050    90,360    92,580    94,770    96,580       +14%
      Central County   162,551   181,348   190,170   198,860   206,710   214,780   221,160      +22%
      East County      56,671    75,587    84,120    95,660    105,980   115,150   121,090      +60%




Los Medanos College, Office of Institutional Research, May 2003
                                         Table 1. Number of Households in East Contra Costa County
                                                                                                                                                  Percent
                                                  1990        2000          2005          2010       2015             2020          2025          Change
East County Cities
             Antioch                              21,729      29,656       31,920         34,660     36,880         39,330         40,870       + 38%
          Brentwood                                3,208       7,899       10,060         12,300     14,570         16,480         18,000       +128%
              Oakley                               5,892       7,901        9,230         10,210     11,200         12,110         12,750       +61%
            Pittsburg                             21,670      24,001       25,560         29,420     33,380         36,530         38,080       +59%
   Rural East County                               4,172       6,130        7,350          9,070      9,950         10,700         11,390       +86%
            TOTALS                                56,671      75,587       84,120         95,660    105,980        115,150        121,090       +60%
                                                                                                     Source: ABAG Projections 2000 Report, January 2002.


Persons per Household: The number of persons per household in East Contra
Costa will stay relatively constant at about 3 persons per household (Graph 2)
and Table 2.
                                              Graph 2. Persons per Household Projections: 1990-2025
                                                              Contra Costa County
                                            3.20
                                            3.10
                 Persons per Household




                                            3.00
                                            2.90
                                            2.80
                                            2.70
                                            2.60
                                            2.50
                                            2.40
                                            2.30
                                                      1990        2000    2005     2010     2015    2020       2025
                                           West       2.73        2.84    2.86     2.84     2.83     2.82      2.80
                                           Central    2.65        2.60    2.62     2.62     2.62     2.61      2.59
                                           East       2.92        3.04    3.10     3.08     3.03     3.02      2.97




   Table 2. Persons Per Household in East Contra Costa County

                                                  1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
East County Cities
                Antioch                           2.89     3.06    2.96   2.96   2.95     2.93      2.9
             Brentwood                            3.04     3.08    3.09   3.07   3.06     3.05     3.02
                 Oakley                           3.10     3.26    3.30   3.28   3.25     3.21     3.17
               Pittsburg                          2.99     3.20    3.29   3.19   3.12     3.10     3.08
      Rural East County                           2.58     2.59    2.87   2.88   2.78     2.79     2.67
              TOTALS                              2.92     3.04    3.10   3.08   3.03     3.02     2.97




Los Medanos College, Office of Institutional Research, May 2003                                                                             2
Population Projections: The population in East Contra Costa County is
projected to grow in the next 25 years by 53% (Graph 3). The greatest growth
will occur in the Brentwood area (+55%) and rural part of the east county (+47%)
-- Table 3.
.

                         Graph 3. Population Projections: 1990-2025
                                   Contra Costa County
           600,000

           500,000

           400,000

           300,000

           200,000

           100,000
                                                                                                 2000-2025
               -                                                                               Percent Change
                        1990      2000       2005       2010      2015      2020      2025
      West County      213,934   240,988    250,400    256,000   261,200   266,800   269,800
                                                                                                 12%
      Central County   417,415   466,292    492,100    514,100   533,500   551,200   564,400
                                                                                                  21%
      East County      167,440   236,153    263,000    295,200   323,200   349,100   362,200      53%




                       Table 3. Total Population Projections in East Contra Costa County
                                                                                                           Perceent
                                                                                                           Chance
                        1990         2000             2005       2010        2015       2020    2025
East County

            Antioch    63,062       92,293            95,000     102,900 109,100 115,800        118,800      +22%

        Brentwood       9,815       24,385            31,100      37,800 44,600      50,200      54,400      +55%

            Oakley     18,374       25,845            30,600      33,600 36,500      39,000      40,500      +36%

          Pittsburg    65,230       77,479            84,900      94,500 105,000 114,000        117,800      +34%

Rural East County      10,959       16,151            21,400      26,400 28,000      30,100      30,700      +47%

          TOTALS 167,440          236,153           263,000      295,200 323,200 349,100        362,200      +53%




Los Medanos College, Office of Institutional Research, May 2003                                        3
Household Income: Household income will continue to be moderate in East
Contra Costa county (Graph 4). In East Contra Costa, the greater changes in
income in the next 25 years will be in rural east (+$23,700) and Pittsburg
(+18,100) – Table 4. Brentwood and Rural East however, will continue to
average higher income that other cities in east Contra Costa County

                              Graph 4. Mean Household Income Projections: 1990-2025
                                              Contra Costa County
                $160,000

                $140,000

                $120,000

                $100,000

                 $80,000

                 $60,000

                 $40,000

                 $20,000

                       $-
                                                                                                                       Income
                                1990         2000      2005        2010     2015        2020       2025                change
                   West        $66,200   $70,067      $72,733   $74,750    $76,383     $81,183   $81,620
                   Central $111,409 $121,773 $126,564 $133,591 $140,218 $147,455 $153,700
                                                                                                                       +$11,553
                   East        $68,040   $74,680      $76,680   $79,720    $83,000     $85,440   $88,460
                                                                                                                       +$31,927
                                                                                                                       +$13,780


                   Table 4. Mean Household Income in Cities of East Contra Costa County
                                                                                                                         Income
                             1990            2000           2005          2010         2015       2020       2025        change
East County
             Antioch   $    71,100       $   73,800     $   74,900    $   76,100   $   77,200    $ 78,200   $ 79,300    +$ 5,500
          Brentwood    $    64,700       $   78,900     $   82,900    $   86,000   $   88,000    $ 89,100   $ 90,200    +$11,300
             Oakley    $    68,600       $   72,400     $   73,900    $   75,300   $   76,800    $ 79,000   $ 82,700    +$10,300
           Pittsburg   $    57,800       $   64,100     $   65,300    $   70,300   $   76,200    $ 78,400   $ 82,200    +$18,100
   Rural East County   $    78,000       $   84,200     $   86,400    $   90,900   $   96,800    $102,500   $107,900    +$23,700
         AVERAGE       $    68,040       $   74,680     $   76,680    $   79,720   $   83,000    $ 85,440   $ 88,460    +13,780




Los Medanos College, Office of Institutional Research, May 2003                                                     4
Employment Trends: Because a great number of Contra Costa residents
commute far distances to Oakland and San Francisco for employment, it is
important to identify occupational or trends of employment in the entire Bay Area.
Table 5 illustrates the top five occupations with the greatest absolute job growth
in Alameda, Contra Costa and San Francisco counties. Business and Computer
Sciences are two areas where the demand seems to be the greatest in both, as
the fastest (table 6) and greatest absolute growth. One factor to keep in mind
however, is the present economic situation in California may have some effects
in such job trends predictions. (For trends on more occupations see appendix A
and B).

  Table 5. Top Five Occupations With the GREATEST ABSOLUTE Job Growth
                                      (1)
                             Bay Area Counties
                                 1999-2006

Alameda                             Contra Costa                     San Francisco

General Managers, Top               Teachers Secondary School        Salespersons, Retail
Executives
Salespersons, Retail                Salespersons, Retail             System Analysts, Electric Data
                                                                     Processing
Computer Support Specialist         General Managers Top             Computer Support Specialist
                                    Executives
Cashiers                            Cashiers                         Computer Engineer
General Office Clerks               System Analysts, Electric Data   Cashiers
                                    Processing
Source: Employment Development Department, May 2003



               Table 6. Top Five Occupations With the FASTEST GROWTH
                                   Bay Area Counties
                                      1999-2006

Alameda                             Contra Costa                     San Francisco

System Analysts, Electric Data      System Analysts, Electric Data   Instructional Coordinators
Processing                          Processing
Computer Support Specialist         Computer Engineers               Computer Engineers
Electronic Semiconductor            Electric Equipment               System Analysts, Electric Data
Processing                          assemblers                       Processing
Plasterers and Stucco Masons        Computer Support Specialist      Computer Support Specialist
Brick masons                        Human Services Workers           Paralegal Personnel
Source: Employment Development Department, May 2003




Los Medanos College, Office of Institutional Research, May 2003                                   5
High School Graduate Projections: California’s Department of Education has
projected an 18% increase of high school graduates in Contra Costa County in
the next 10 years. Although no high school projections are available for individual
schools in the county, it is believed that most growth will occur in East Contra
Costa County area because of the rapid population growth and construction of
the new schools, particularly in the areas of Antioch and Brentwood.




                         Graph 5. Projected Public High School Graduates
                                       Contra Costa County

   14,000
                                                                           11,803   11,589   11,520   11,565   +18%
   12,000                                               10,569    11,031
                              9,743    9,910   10,131
             9,261    9,452
   10,000
    8,000
    6,000
    4,000
    2,000
      -
            2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11




Los Medanos College, Office of Institutional Research, May 2003                                           6
Internal Environmental Scan

Los Medanos College enrolls nearly 10,000 students. Student enrollment has
steadily increased in the past six years. Since 1996, student enrollment has
increased from 8,388 to 10,956 in Fall 2002 – a 30.6% increase – Graph 6.
                                                                 Graph 6

                                                     LMC Enrollment
                                                     Headcount (Fall)
                                                                                                  10%
                                                                                           6%
                                                                                    9%            10956
                       -3%                                       8%     -2%   -3%
                                        8%      1%        2%                               9971
                                                                                    9446
               8987 8710 -13%                          9035 8887
                                                                 8648                                     +30.6%
                                        8158 8258 8388
                                7550




                 F91      F92    F93     F94     F95      F96     F97   F98   F99    F00    F01    F02


Ethnic Composition: The ethnic composition reflects well that of the adult
population in East County (Graph 7). The only change we see in the last five
years has been an increase of 2 percent of African-American students (Table 7),
and a 4 percent decrease in Caucasian students.

                                        Graph 7
         LMC Fall 2002 Student Enrollment as Compared to East County Population

                                 Caucasian                                           46%
                                                                                            55%

                                       Latino                    18%
                                                                    24%

                          African American                 12%
                                                          9%
                                Asian/ Pac                 11%
                                  Islander                9%                   Fall 2002 LMC
                          Native American/      1%                             Enrollment
                           Alaska Native        1%                             (n=10,956)

                                       Others        3%                        East C.C.C.* (18
                                                     3%                        years or above)
                             Unknown/                     9%
                           Non-respondent       0%



        *US Census 2000




Los Medanos College, Office of Institutional Research, May 2003                                                    7
           Table 7. Ethnicity Distribution of LMC Students: Fall Semesters
                          1996       1997        1998        1999        2000       2001        2002

             N            8,388      9,035       8,887       8,648       9,446      9,971      10,956

     American
     Indian/                 1%         1%          1%          1%          1%         1%       1%
     Alaskan Native

     Asian/
                             5%         5%          5%          5%          6%         6%       5%
     Pacific Islander

     African
                           10%        11%         11%         11%         12%       12%         12%
     American
     Caucasian             55%        53%         52%         52%         51%       51%         46%

     Filipino                5%         5%          5%          5%          5%         5%       5%

     Hispano/
                           18%        19%         19%         16%         18%       18%         18%
     Latino

     Other
                              -           -           -           -         2%         2%       2%
     non-white

     Unknown                 6%         6%          7%          8%          5%         5%       9%




Gender: The proportion of female to male has changed slightly. In 1996 61% of
the student population was female and 39% male. The corresponding figures for
fall 2002 are 55% female, 45% male (Table 8).


                Table 8. Gender Distribution of LMC Students: Fall Semesters
                      1996        1997        1998        1999        2000       2001       2002
             N        8,388       9,035       8,887       8,648       9,446      9,971      10,956
         Female       61%         61%         61%         56%         56%        56%         55%
         Male         39%         39%         39%         44%         44%        44%         45%




Los Medanos College, Office of Institutional Research, May 2003                                         8
Assessment of LMC Students: About 76.6% of all LMC students who are
assessed in English (in Fall 2002), assess bellow college level (Table 9). The
corresponding figure for math is about 84.5% (Table 10).


  Table 9. Assessment Level Distribution of LMC Students: Fall 2000 to Fall 2002 Semesters:

                                                    ENGLISH
                                              Fall 2000             Fall 2001          Fall 2002
                                            N           %          N          %       N           %
          Pre-collegiate basic skills
                                           647       40.9%        724      38.3%     899       40.1%
          (English 70 and bellow)
          Developmental Level
                                           557       35.2%        698      36.9%     815       36.4%
          (English 90)
          College Level (English 10S)      378       23.9%        469      24.8%     527       23.5%
          Total                            1582       100%        1891      100%     2241       100%




 Table 10. Assessment Level Distribution of LMC Students: Fall 2000 to Fall 2002 Semesters:


                                                      MATH
                                                Fall 2000              Fall 2001          Fall 2002
                                             N            %         N           %     N           %
          Basic Skills (1/2, 7 and
                                            985       67.0%        1132      68.4%   1206      64.6%
          904)
          Developmental (Math 25)           235       16.0%        272       16.4%   371       19.9%
          Math 30 or above                  249       17.0%        252       15.2%   289       15.5%
          Total                            1469       100%         1656      100%    1866       100%




Los Medanos College, Office of Institutional Research, May 2003                                       9
Educational Objective: Community Colleges have traditionally served students
with a wide range of educational objectives. Table 11 displays the educational
objective distribution of students attending LMC.


                       Table 11. Educational Objective of LMC students

       What is your primary reason for attending                           1995                                 2001
       LMC?*                                                             (n=855)                              (n=451)
       Earn a certificate/ or an Associate Degree                            35%                                   33%

       Maintain a certificate or license                                     2%                                    3%
       Learn new skills for current job/ job
                                                                             12%                                   16%
       change/career advancement
       Transfer to a four-year university with or
                                                                             40%                                   33%
       without an A.A. degree
       Improve basic skills in reading, writing, math,
                                                                             1%                                    2%
       etc.
       Complete high school credits                                          1%                                    1%
       Pursue personal interests unrelated to any of
                                                                             4%                                    6%
       the above goals
       Undecided                                                             3%                                    4%

       Unknown                                                               2%                                    2%
      *Figures obtained from two separate institutional surveys at two different points of time (1995 and 2001).




Enrollment by Student Load: Six-year enrollment trends indicate mostly part time
students (86%) – Graph 9.


                                                      Graph 9


                                                   Student Load
                                                    Fall Terms
              100%
                                                                                   86%
               80%                                 86%       85%      85%
                         80%     81%       83%
               60%
                                                                                                  Full-time
               40%                                                                                Part-time
               20%
                         20%      19%     17%                                      14%
                                                    14%      15%      15%
                 0%
                        1996     1997     1998     1999     2000    2001     2002




Los Medanos College, Office of Institutional Research, May 2003                                                          10
Enrollment by Communities: A four-year study of enrollment by communities
indicates that nearly three quarters of the student enrollment at Los Medanos
College is from our service area – mostly are from Antioch (31%) and Pittsburg
(19%) – Table 12.

                               Table 12. Headcount Enrollment by City
                          Fall 1999            Fall 2000           Fall 2001        Fall 2002
Headcount                   8,648               9,446                   9,971        10,956

Antioch                 2622     30.3%      3108     32.9%        3197     32.1%   3384   31%
Baypoint                 142      1.6%       121      1.3%         109     1.1%    146    1%
Bethel Is                41       0.5%        53      0.6%          55     0.6%     36    0%
Brentwood                547      6.3%       699      7.4%        752      7.5%    1054   10%
Byron                    131      1.5%       100      1.1%        112      1.1%    105    1%
Discover Bay              9       0.1%        8       0.1%          32     0.3%     44    0%
Knightsen                23       0.3%        26      0.3%          24     0.2%     26    0%
Oakley                   737      8.5%       808      8.6%        900      9.0%    1014   9%
Pittsburg               1751     20.2%      1915     20.3%        2030     20.4%   2135   19%
                        6003     69.4%      6838     72.4%        7211     72.3%   7944   73%

Clayton                  91       1.1%        89      0.9%        105       1.1%   138     1%
Clyde                     0       0.0%         1      0.0%         3        0.0%    1      0%
Alamo                     6       0.1%        11      0.1%         10       0.1%    12     0%
Concord                 632       7.3%       578      6.1%        646       6.5%   744     7%
Crockett                  6       0.1%        9       0.1%         6        0.1%    8      0%
Danville                 39       0.5%        43      0.5%         41       0.4%    55     1%
Diablo                   1        0.0%        0       0.0%         0        0.0%    0      0%
El Cerrito              12        0.1%        7       0.1%         9        0.1%    10     0%
El Sobrante              16       0.2%        20      0.2%         22       0.2%    18     0%
Hercules                27        0.3%        24      0.3%         22       0.2%    33     0%
Lafayette                44       0.5%        28      0.3%         42       0.4%    38     0%
Martinez                172       2.0%       182      1.9%        210       2.1%   206     2%
Moraga                    9       0.1%         7      0.1%         16       0.2%    21     0%
Orinda                  13        0.2%        13      0.1%         17       0.2%    12     0%
Pacheco                   4       0.0%        10      0.1%         9        0.1%    10     0%
Pinole                   16       0.2%        19      0.2%         24       0.2%    33     0%
Pleasant Hill           107       1.2%       119      1.3%        101       1.0%   114     1%
Port Costa                1       0.0%         0      0.0%          0       0.0%    0      0%
Richmond                 53       0.6%        43      0.5%         92       0.9%    70     1%
Rodeo                   11        0.1%        10      0.1%         15       0.2%    12     0%
San Pablo                26       0.3%        18      0.2%         37       0.4%    51     0%
San Ramon               44        0.5%        32      0.3%         48       0.5%    63     1%
Suisun City               9       0.1%        18      0.2%         10       0.1%    9      0%
Walnut Creek            193       2.2%       169      1.8%        177       1.8%   229     2%
Contra Costa
                        7535     87.1%      8288     87.7%        8873     89.0%   9831   90%
County
Out of Contra
                        1113     12.9%      1158     12.3%        1098     11.0%   1125   10%
Costa County


Los Medanos College, Office of Institutional Research, May 2003                                 11
Students who are from LMC Service Area and Attend DVC: In a study about
students from LMC service area attending DVC conducted in 2000, it was found
that 2551 such students attend DVC. These students tend to be younger (63.4%
are 24 years old or under as compared to 43.6% of LMC enrollment), a greater
proportion of them enroll full time (40% vs 15%), and a greater proportion of them
have educational objectives that are long term (and among these students, 81%
plan to transfer. The corresponding figure for LMC is 57%).


                    DVC Students from LMC Service Area (n=2551)
                  As Compared to Fall 2000 LMC Enrollment (n=9446)



                                                                           Graph 11: Age Group

       Graph 10: Gender
                                             19 or under                                                   30.9%
                                                                                                24.0%
                                                                                                             32.5%
 54% 56%                                           20-24
                                                                                         19.6%
                     47% 44%
                                                   25-29                    10.3%
                                                                            10.3%
                                                   30-34                7.6%
                                                                           10.2%

                                                   35-39            5.5%
                                                                            10.6%
                                              40 or over                        13.3%
                                                                                                  25.3%
  Female                Male
                                                                           Graph 13: Ethnicity


  Graph 12: Time Commitment                                      Caucasian                                             43.9%
                                                                                                                               51%
                                                                      Latino                     18.9%
       85%                                                                                      18%
 60%                                                       African American             9.5%
                                                                                          12%
                      40%
                                      Asian/ Pac Islander (includes Filipino)                   17.4%
                               15%                                                       11%

                                                           Others Non-white      2.8%
                                                                                2%
  Part Time             Full Time                                               0.7%
                                           American Indian/ Alaskan Native
                                                                                1%                       DVC Students from LMC area
                                                                   Unknown           6.8%
                                                                                    6%
                                                                                                         Fall 2000 LMC Enrollment




Los Medanos College, Office of Institutional Research, May 2003                                                12
              Graph 14: Educational Objectives of                                                Graph 15: Long Term Objectives
                       Those Reported*

                                                DVC Students from LMC area
78%                                             (n=1305)
                                                                                                                                           81%
                                                                               Tranfer Intent
         65%                                    Fall 2000 LMC Enrollment                                                  57%
                                                (n=3196)


                                                                              AA/ Vocational     10%
                                          35%                                 Degree without
                                                                                Transfer                 23%
                                22%                                                                                            DVC Students from LMC area
                                                                                                                               (n=1020)
                                                                                                                               Fall 2000 LMC Enrollment
                                                                                                 9%                            (n=2077)
                                                                                   Certificate
                                                                                                        20%
  Long Term                        Short Term




Student Access to Computers: A study conducted in the Fall 2002 revealed that 90% of LMC
students have access to the internet from home and about 75% connect to the World Wide
Web at least several times a week or daily – Graphs 16 and 17.


                                   Graph 16 Indicate if you do or do not have each of the
                                                      following* (YES)
                                                           (N=147)



                    An email address: through the college             10.2%

                               An email address: at home                                                              87.8%

                                An email address: at work                  17.0%

                         Web access: through the college                                                      72.1%

                                    Web access: at home                                                                89.9%

                                     Web access: at work                       25.9%




                                          Graph 17 How Often do you use the Internet or
                                                            WWW*
                                                           (N=147)
                                                     Never     0.7%
                                 Serveral times per year           4.1%
                                          Once a month                6.8%
                                            Once a week                       13.6%
                                 Serveral times per week                                              34.0%
                                                      Daily                                                   40.8%
                                                     Blank    0.0%



*Source: ACT Faces of the Future Survey: Fall 2002. LMC, Office of Institutional Research, February 2003.




Los Medanos College, Office of Institutional Research, May 2003
Enrollment at The Brentwood Center:

To serve the academic needs of the rapidly growing population in East County, Los Medanos
College opened a center in Brentwood. Student enrollment in Brentwood has increased form
343 in Fall 1999 to 1,103 in Fall 2002 – a 221% increase. Tables 13, 14 and 15 display their
characteristics.

                            Table 13. Student Ethnic Distribution of Brentwood Center

                          Fall 1999                Fall 2000              Fall 2001            Fall 2002
                      Frequency     %         Frequency      %        Frequency     %     Frequency      %
   Caucasian,
                         158        46.1%         271        55.3%       261      52.9%      651      59.0%
  Non-Hispanic
      Latino              68        19.8%         119        24.3%       113      22.9%      226      20.5%
African American          35        10.2%          34        6.9%         40       8.1%       49      4.4%
      Asian               21         6.1%          16        3.3%         20       4.1%       29      2.6%
     Filipino             16         4.7%          13        2.7%         17       3.4%       37      3.4%
American Indian/
                            5        1.5%          5          1%          7       1.4%       12       1.1%
 Alaskan Native
 Pacific Islander         4          1.2%          1         0.2%         2       0.4%        8       0.7%
Other non-White           3          0.9%         10          2%          12      2.4%        28      2.5%
    Unknown              33          9.6%         21         4.3%         20      4.3%        63       5.75
     TOTAL               343         100%         490        100%        493      100%      1,103     100%


                            Table14. Student Gender Distribution of Brentwood Center

                        FALL 1999                FALL 2000                FALL 2001            FALL 2002
                    Frequency     %          Frequency     %          Frequency     %      Frequency     %
   Female              150         43.7%         286         58.4%       278      56.4%       653       59.2%
    Male               182         53.1%         181         36.9%       203      41.2%       412       37.4%
  Unknown              11          3.2%          23           4.7%       12        2.4%        38        3.4%
   TOTAL               343         100%          490         100%        493      100%       1,103      100%




                            Table 15. Student Age Distribution of Brentwood Center

                        FALL 1999               FALL 2000                 FALL 2001            FALL 2002
                    Frequency     %         Frequency     %          Frequency      %      Frequency     %
 Under 19             84         24.5%         187         38.2%       147       29.8%        428      38.8%
   20-24              42         12.2%          85         17.3%       130       26.4%        257      23.3%
   25-29              35         10.2%          39           8%        31        6.3%          98       8.9%
   30-34              46         13.4%          29          5.9%       38        7.7%          73       6.6%
   35-39              55          16%          39            8%        43        8.7%          73       6.6%
 40 or over           78         22.7%         111         22.7%       103       20.9%        174      15.8%
 Unknown               3          0.9%          0            0%         1        0.2%           0        0%
  TOTAL               343        100%          490         100%        493       100%        1,103     100%




Los Medanos College, Office of Institutional Research, May 2003                                              14
Enrollment by Communities: The majority of students enrolled in the Brentwood Center live
in the areas of Antioch (24.8%), Brentwood (35%) and Oakley (21.6) – Table 16.


                Table 16. Three-Semester Headcount Enrollment at Brentwood Center by City

                                    Fall 1999        Fall 2000     Fall 2001           Fall 2002
Headcount                               343              490             493                1,103

Antioch                            98     28.6%      98    20.0%   106     21.5%      274      24.8%
Bay Point                           6      1.7%       1     0.2%     1      0.2%       2        0.1%
Bethel Is                          6       1.7%      9      1.8%    0       0.0%        5        0%
Brentwood                          67     19.5%     156    31.8%   179     36.3%      387      35.1%
Byron                              28      8.2%      21     4.3%    31      6.3%       40       3.6%
Discover Bay                       2       0.6%      2      0.4%    6      1.2%        16       1.4%
Knightsen                          3       0.9%      5      1.0%    4       0.8%        7       0.6%
Oakley                             55     16.0%     120    24.5%    93     18.9%      238      21.6%
Pittsburg                          44     12.8%      36    7.3%     33     6.7%        60       2.7%
                                   309    90.1%     448    91.4%   453     91.9% 1,029         93.3%

Clayton                             2     0.6%       1     0.2%    1           0.2%   6        10.5%
Clyde                               0     0.0%       1     0.2%    0           0.0%   0          0%
Alamo                               0     0.0%       1     0.2%    0           0.0%    1         0%
Concord                             6     1.7%       7     1.4%    8           1.6%   21        1.9%
Danville                            0     0.0%       0     0.0%    0           0.0%   1          0%
El Cerrito                          0     0.0%       0     0.0%    1           0.2%   0          0%
Hercules                            0     0.0%       0     0.0%    0           0.0%   1          0%
Lafayette                           0     0.0%       0     0.0%    0           0.0%   1          0%
Martinez                            0     0.0%       3     0.6%    2           0.4%   5         0.1%
Moraga                              1     0.3%       0     0.0%    0           0.0%   0          0%
Orinda                              0     0.0%       0     0.0%    0           0.0%   0          0%
Pinole                              0     0.0%       0     0.0%    0           0.0%   0          0%
Pleasant Hill                       1     0.3%       1     0.2%    0           0.0%   1          0%
Richmond                            1     0.3%       1     0.2%    1           0.2%   1          0%
Rio Vista                           1     0.3%       1     0.2%    0           0.0%   4         0.3%
Rodeo                               0     0.0%       0     0.0%    2           0.4%   0          0%
San Pablo                           1     0.3%       1     0.2%    0           0.0%    0         0%
San Ramon                           0     0.0%       0     0.0%    0           0.0%   1          0%
Walnut Creek                        1     0.3%       2     0.4%    1           0.2%   8        0.7%
Contra Costa County                323    94.2%     467    95.3%   469     95.1% 1,080         97.9%

Out of Contra Costa County         20     5.8%      23     4.7%    24          4.9%   23       2.1%




Los Medanos College, Office of Institutional Research, May 2003                                        15
                                             Institutional Outcomes

Examining some indicators of how the institution performs, is also important in understanding
the internal environment of an institution. Six indicators of effectiveness will be examined in
this section: Persistence, course retention, course success, retention and success in basic
skills math and English, degree attainment, and transfer.


                                  First-to-Second Semester Persistence
DEFINITION: First-time freshman students persist from one term to the next term.

          First Term: Student is enrolled in at least one course. A, B, C, D, F, CR, NC, W, I
          grade notations.
          Next Term: Student is enrolled in at least one course. A, B, C, D, F, CR, NC, W, I
          grade.

MEASUREMENT: Percent of first-time freshmen enrolled in next term out of first-time
freshmen enrolled in first term. The persistence rate is calculated by dividing the numerator
(number of students in at least one course with A, B, C, D, F, CR, NC, W, I in the next term)
by the denominator (number of students in at least one course with A, B, C, D, F, CR, NC, W,
I, in the first term).

ANALYSIS: First-to-second semester persistence for 2000 cohort of first-time freshmen is
56%, 16% points higher than 1998 FTF cohort (Graph 18).

Note: Since community colleges serve students with wide range of educational objectives, it
is important that persistence be examined controlling for educational objective. Students with
long-range goals have significantly higher persistence rates – 52%-- than those of students
with short-term goals --36%-- (Graph 19).
                    Graph 18. Term-to-Term Persistence for Cohorts of First-Time Freshmen1


                                                         Los Me danos College

                   100% 100% 100% 100%                                                          Fall 1994 (n=1169)
                                                                                                Fall 1996 (n=1280)
                                                                                                Fall 1998 (n=1501)
                                                                                                Fall 2000 (n=464)
                                                               56%
                                               47% 48%
                                                         40%
                                                                                          34%
                                                                          30% 32%
                                                                                    21%               22% 24%         22%
                                                                                                                14%




                           1st                        2nd                         3rd                        4th
                                                         Semester Since Entrance
1
 A First-Time Freshman is a student who is a high school graduate, is attending LMC for the first time, and has no college credits.



Los Medanos College, Office of Institutional Research, May 2003                                                                       16
             Graph 19. Term-to-Term Persistence for First-Time Freshmen by Educational Objective



                                                       Fall 2000



                         100% 100%
                                                                                Long-Term (1) Ed. Objective
                                                                                (n=73)
                                                                                Short-Term (2) Ed. Objective
                                                                                (n=28)

            Percent
          Persistence                    52%

                                               36%      37%
                                                                        29%
                                                              18%
                                                                              11%



                            1st            2nd             3rd            4th
                            F00            S01             F01            S02
                                         Semester Since Entrance

1
 Long-term educational objective include students who after being at LMC for one year updated their educational objective
and indicated the following: Obtain a Certificate, General Education Degree, Transfer to a four-year Institution, and
Vocational Degree.
2
 Short-term educational objective include students who after being at LMC for one year updated their educational objective
and indicated the following: Explore Career Interest, Learn Job Skills, Maintain Certificate, Pursue Personal Interest, and
Update Job Skills.




Los Medanos College, Office of Institutional Research, May 2003                                                         17
Retention Rate at Los Medanos College: Overall course retention rate for LMC increased
from 79% in Fall 1996 to 82% in Fall 2002. The State’s average is 82% for Fall 2001 – State
average is not available for Fall 2002 at this point -- (Graph 20).

               Graph 20. LMC's Overall Course Retention Rates: Fall 1996 to Fall 2002


                                                                              82%           82%
                                             82%           81% 81%                    81%          82%
                   79%          79%                                     79%




                    1996         1997          1998         1999          2000         2001         2002
                                                    Fall Semester                                               LMC
                                                                                                                State's average


DEFINITION: Student is retained in the course to end of term. A, B, C, D, F, CR, NC, I grade notations.

MEASUREMENT: Percent of students retained in courses out of total enrolled in courses. The retention rate is calculated by dividing the
numerator (number of students with A, B, C, D, F, CR, NC, I) by the denominator (number of students with A, B, C, D, F, CR, NC, W, I).




Course Success Rate for Los Medanos College: Overall course success at LMC has ranged
from 65% in Fall 1997, to 66 % in Fall 2002. Course success State’s average for Fall 2001 is
67% -- Graph 21.
DEFINITION: Student succeeds in the course to end of term. A, B, C, CR grade notations.

MEASUREMENT: Percent of students successful in courses out of total enrolled in courses. The success rate is calculated by dividing the
numerator (number of students with A, B, C, CR) by the denominator (number of students with A, B, C, D, F, CR, NC, W, I).


          Graph 21. LMC's Overall Course Success Rates at LMC: Fall 1996 to Fall 2002



                66%           65%           68%           68% 66%       65%
                                                                              66%     68% 67%       66%




                 1996          1997          1998           1999          2000          2001          2002
                                                      Fall Semester                                       LMC
                                                                                                          State's average




Los Medanos College, Office of Institutional Research, May 2003                                                                    18
Degrees Awarded at Los Medanos College: The number of Associate Degrees awarded is
on a steady increase -- from 207 in 1997-98 to 264 in 2001-02. The number of certificates
that LMC awarded to students appears to be on a decrease (Graph 22).


     Graph 22. Number of Associate Degrees and Certificates of Achievement Awarded at LMC:
                                   AY 1992-93 to AY 2001-02


             300
                                                                       264                                                  1992-93
                                251243                           249
             250    228                              235                                                                    1993-94
                          218            223
                                               207         203                                                              1994-95
             200                                                                                                            1995-96
                                                                                                                            1996-97
             150                                                                                         128
                                                                             113122105        120                           1997-98
                                                                                         91         90         92           1998-99
             100                                                                                                    71 77
                                                                                                                            1999-00
              50                                                                                                            2000-01
                                                                                                                            2001-02
               0
                                 Associate Degree                                         Certificate




Los Medanos College, Office of Institutional Research, May 2003                                                                       19
                 Transfer students, Transfer Readiness and Transfer Preparedness

Transfers to UC and CSU: The number of LMC students transferring to 4-year institutions
has been in the range of 130 to 214 (Graph 23).

                                                            Graph 23

                                                      Los Medanos College


                                                            214
                                                                      198
                                                   188                                   176
                                          178                                  176
                                                                                                 170       171
                                153
                       130
                                                             192      167
                                          151       161                                  147
                                                                               154                155      156
                                 134
                        108


                        22       19        27       27        22       31       22       29        15       15
                       92-93    93-94    94-95    95-96    96-97 97-98        98-99     99-00    00-01    01-02
                                                           Academic Year


                 Source: California’s Post-Secondary Education Commission, 2003.




Transfer Preparedness at Los Medanos College ( Six-Year Trends):

The California Community College system has looked for other ways to measure the transfer
function of a college. Professionals in the industry of college outcomes have introduced the
concept of transfer readiness and transfer preparedness for this purpose. Transfer readiness
is defined as: “Students who were Transfer Directed* and had earned 56+ transferable units
with a minimum 2.00 G.P.A. during a period of 4 years”. Transfer preparedness is defined as:
“All students who had earned 56+ transferable units with a minimum G.P.A of 2.00 during a
four-year period”

               Additional Definitions:

               Total Transfer Directed : Students who enrolled in and earned a grade of "A","B","C" or "CR" in a
               transferable Mathematics course and a transferable English course sometime between the Summer
               term of 1996 and the Spring term of 2002.


               Transferable English courses were those with a Transfer Status (CB05) of "A" or "B" and a Course
               Program Code (CB03) that started with value of "1501" or "1503"or "1504" or "1507" in the first four
               positions.

               Transferable Mathematics courses were those with a Transfer Status (CB05) of "A" or "B" and a Course
               Program Code (CB03) that started with the value of "17" in the first two positions.

               Work done at all schools attended by a student was taken into consideration if an SSN was
               reported for the student. If a student was counted as being either Transfer Directed or
               Transfer Ready in a prior year, they are not counted in this report. Only those students who
               attain a particular status in this year are counted.




Los Medanos College, Office of Institutional Research, May 2003                                                       20
Table 17 displays LMC’s historical figures for transfer readiness and transfer preparedness.
Also, Table 18, shows the projected goals for the next three years. Using the straight line
formula, an increase of transfer readiness and transfer preparedness is expected. This
growth does make sense since our surrounding community continues to grow as so does the
high school population in the area.

         Table 17.        Historical Figures for Transfer Readiness and Transfer Preparedness

                1996-          1997-          1998-          1999-           2000-          2001-          Estimated Goals
                1997           1998           1999           2000            2001           2002           for 2002-2003
Total           15,710         17,233         17,259         17,213          17,134         18,934         19,579*
Credit
Students
Total           370            478            462            346             454            507            534*
Transfer
Directed
Directed        2.36%          2.77%          2.68%          2.01%           2.65%          2.68%          2.72%
Rate
Model           88             134            126            83              140            152            165*
Transfer
Ready
Model           23.78%         28.03%         27.27%         23.99%          30.84%         29.98%         30.89%
Ready
Rate
Total           322            400            357            331             348            413            431*
Transfer
Prepared
*Formula to estimate goals: y = a + bx where y = the output; a = some constant; b = the slope or rate of increase in y given one unit of
change in x; and x = years. where b = (y2-y1) / (x2-x1) .




               Table 18. Transfer Preparedness Estimated Goals for 2003-2004 to 2005-2006

                                       1996-          Estimated         Estimated Estimated
                                       1997           Goals for         Goals for Goals for
                                                      2003-             2004-     2005-2006
                                                      2004              2005
                        Total          15,710         19,643*           20,204*           20,765*
                        Credit
                        Students
                        Total          370            561*              588*              615*
                        Transfer
                        Directed
                        Directed       2.36%          2.85%             2.91%             2.96%
                        Rate
                        Model          88             178*              191*              204*
                        Transfer
                        Ready
                        Model          23.78%         31.72%            32.48%            33.17%
                        Ready
                        Rate
                        Total          322            449*              467*              485*
                        Transfer
                        Prepared

Los Medanos College, Office of Institutional Research, May 2003                                                                        21
Curriculum balance at LMC: Distribution of all LMC course sections by category has been
steady for the last three years. Most courses offered are Occupational (about 44% for the
three semesters), followed by transfer with about 31%, and then Developmental (16%).

                                                   Graph 24. Fall 2001
                                                        (n=921)

                                                               2.2%
                                                                        16.6%                   Developmental
                                                                                                Life long learning
                                               32.9%                          3.7%
                                                                                                Occupational
                                                                                                Transfer
                                                                                                Unclassified


                                                                       44.6%


                                                   Graph 25. Fall 2000
                                                        (n=926)

                                                              3.9%
                                                                       16.3%

                                                                              2.7%
                                              32.8%




                                                                        44.3%


                                                   Graph 26. Fall 1999
                                                        (n=842)
                                                          4.2%         15.6%

                                                                          3.1%
                                              33.0%




                                                                        44.2%

                                             Graph 27. Offerings by Type




                         Developmental   Life long learning      Occupational        Transfer              Unclassified
             Fall 1999      15.6%              3.1%                   44.2%          33.0%                     4.2%
             (n=842)
             Fall 2000      16.3%              2.7%                   44.3%          32.8%                     3.9%
             (n=926)
             Fall 2001      16.6%              3.7%                   44.6%          32.9%                     2.2%
             (n=921)




Los Medanos College, Office of Institutional Research, May 2003                                                           22
    In the figures below curriculum offerings are shown by Total hours, FTEF and FTES,
    Occupational and Transfer are the two biggest categories of courses we offer. Below are the
    charts by TOTAL HOURS, FTEF, and FTES by category (Graph 26).
                   Graph 28 Categories of Curriculum Offerings by TOTAL HOURS, FTEF and FTES:
                                                Fall 2000 to Fall 2001

            Total Hours                                  Total Hours                                 Total Hours
         Fall 1999 (n=842)                            Fall 2000 (n=926)                           Fall 2001 (n=921)


                                                          1,793                               2,502                                 Developmental
           3,120                                                     14,443                              14,139
                       11,349
                                                                                                                                    Life long learning
                                              21,995                              23,368
                             1,827                                                                           2,391                  Occupational
19,710                                                                    1,681
                                                                                                                                    Transfer
                                                                                                                                    Unclassified
                                                                       30,307
                       25,384                                                                           30,530




                        FTEF                                 FTEF                                     FTEF
                 Fall 1999 (n=842)                    Fall 2000 (n=926)                        Fall 2001 (n=921)
                      1.57                                  1.87
                                 34.32                              25.76                             1.01   28.22
         64.14                                                         4.38
                                      5.20                                                                         6.57
                                              66.90                                   72.21




                                77.69
                                                                     80.47                                       77.79




                   FTES                                        FTES                                     FTES
            Fall 1999 (n=842)                           Fall 2000 (n=926)                        Fall 2001 (n=921)
                   36.91                                                                                 43.24
                             389.16                                                                                  467.99
                                                            42.00
                                                                     461.81
                                  78.75                                                                                    116.79
  993.10                                                                  84.86
                                                                                      1,212.77
                                             1,123.09




                                978.49                                                                                   1,169.94
                                                                      1,146.77




    Los Medanos College, Office of Institutional Research, May 2003                                                                        23

								
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