Phoenix College 2008 Environmental Scan by mmo13137

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									               Phoenix College
          2008 Environmental Scan
The purpose of environmental scanning is to provide a broad range of in-                                Nationally, studies have shown that high school
formation that will enable decision-makers to understand current and po-                                students enrolled in dual enrollment have
tential trends so that strategic directions and goals can be established.                               better college outcomes than other students.
                                                                                                        For instance, they are more likely to attend
                                                                                                        college, complete their bachelor’s degrees
                                                                                                        in a shorter period of time, and have higher
                                                                                                        GPA’s. In the last few years, ASU has been
                                                                                                        maintaining a stronger presence in several
                                                                                                        area high schools. The university projects that
                                                                                                        it will have 90,000 enrolled students on its four
                                                                                                        campuses by 2022. Phoenix College should
                                                                                                        continue its efforts with unprepared students,
                                                                                                        dual enrollment program, and developing a
                                                                                                        high school presence.


                                                                                                                        IN THIS ISSUE
                                                                                                           Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . cover

                                                                                                           Economy and Workforce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2


EDUCATION                                                                                                  Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Student expectations are changing as many          in 2007. The college expects to graduate 150            Fast Facts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
seek flexible schedules, new delivery options,      new physicians each year. This presents an
                                                                                                           Headcount/FTSE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
and 24/7 support. The continued demand             opportunity for Phoenix College to partnership
                                                                                                                Evening Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
for online education, hybrid formats, and          pre-med and nursing programs. In addition, the
virtual support services is expected to grow.      University of Arizona wants to build a teaching              Veterans Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Infrastructure and processes will be impacted,     hospital in downtown phoenix which may                       Dual Enrollment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
along with organizational cultural shifts needed   present additional partnership opportunities                 Recent High School Graduates . . . . . . . 4
to accommodate this change.                        for Phoenix College.

Today, community students are less prepared        Some national banks discontinued offering
for college coursework, and need more support      federally backed loans to students at two
in order to succeed. An increasing number of       year colleges. Difficulty in borrowing options
first generation students are expected to enter     may deter some students from attending
the system. The student population is also         college. MCCCD should monitor this trend
becoming more diverse.                             and the potential impact on college attendance
                                                   and affordability. According to The Arizona
                                                                                                                              MAIN CAMPUS
Competition continues to grow as students          Republic, Universal Technical Institute created                        1202 West Thomas Road
search for alternative delivery methods. For       a $10 million loan program to help students                               Phoenix, AZ 85013
                                                                                                                               602.285.7500
example, Axia College, dubbed a national           struggling to secure loans in today’s tight credit
community college, has enrolled more than          market.                                                               PC DOWNTOWN CAMPUS
                                                                                                                           640 North 1st Avenue
100,000 students nation-wide.                                                                                               Phoenix, AZ 85003
                                                   Student performance in high school conti-                                   602.223.4000
The University of Arizona College of Medicine,     nues to be a concern. While ACT reports that
phoenix campus, in partnership with the            scores for all ethnic groups have increased
Arizona State University, opened their doors       since 2003, more than half of the students
in 2006 with 24 students and was accredited        were below college readiness benchmarks.
                                      Phoenix College 2008 Environmental Scan

ECONOMY AND WORKFORCE
The economy is one of the major factors           The state is facing severe budget shortfalls and   sectors in decline include the information
influencing enrollment at Phoenix College.         property tax revenues are declining, making        sector (down 3.4%), and the manufacturing
Over the past several years, as the economy       colleges more reliant upon tuition. Alternative    sector (down 1.9%). Overall, employment in
has fluctuated (primarily the unemployment         funding mechanisms will be needed.                 Greater Phoenix is expected to fall throughout
rate), the headcount and FTSE has also                                                               2008, according to the Arizona Department of
changed (see graph below). In fact, almost        In the Greater Phoenix metro area, unemploy-       Commerce. Healthcare professions continue
90% of the variation in headcount and             ment has risen from 3.1% in March 2007 to          to have the highest projected growth rates.
FTSE can be attributed to variations in the       3.8 in May 2008. The construction sector has       The table shows the projected growth and
unemployment rate, the size of the labor          been particularly hard hit, with employment        the number of new positions per year over the
force, and the inflation rate.                     down 6.3% between 2006 and 2007. Other             next 10 years.

Looking forward, recession threatens to lead
to more unemployment, suggesting that PC             Occupation                                Growth Percent              New per Year
may see an enrollment surge as workers
come to school to improve their skills. Also,        Registered Nurses                                48%                       2346.4
a change in Presidential administration may          Medical Assistants                               52%                        585.6
result in a change in the course of the Iraq         Dental Assistants                                47%                        418.1
War and bring home the fighting forces. The           Pharmacy Technicians                             49%                        365.7
full impact of these events may not be realized
                                                     Respiratory Therapists                           49%                        196.2
however, as competition for students is keen
                                                     Occ and Phys Therapist Assist and Aides          43%                        155.1
(see Education). As always, PC needs to be
flexible, convenient, and easily afforded to          Dental Hygienists                                48%                        148.3
take advantage of any opportunities presented        Physical Therapist Assistants                    49%                         65.2
by a downturn in the economy.



                                                  Economic Trends from 1990




        1990          1992           1994         1996           1998           2000          2002          2004         2006            2008

                                                                        Year

                                    Headcount             FTSE               Labor Force             Unemployment Rate




2
                                         Phoenix College 2008 Environmental Scan


                                                                                                              Fast Facts
                                                                                                        Gender
                                                                                                         Female                         58%
                                                                                                         Male                           37%
                                                                                                         Other                         0.3%
                                                                                                         Undeclared                      5%

                                                                                                        Age
                                                                                                         14-17                     4%
                                                                                                         18-22                    32%
                                                                                                         23-29                    25%
                                                                                                         30-39                    19%
                                                                                                         40-49                    11%
                                                                                                         50-59                     7%
                                                                                                         60-85                     3%
                                                                                                             Median Age: 26 years

                                                                                                        Ethnicity
                                                                                                          Native American                4%
                                                                                                          Asian                          4%
                                                                                                          Black                         10%
                                                                                                          Hispanic                      33%
                                                                                                          White                         41%
                                                                                                          Other                          8%

TECHNOLOGY                                                                                              Enrolled FT/PT
Students will want educational access twenty-        Beyond email, Web 2.0 technology (e.g.,             Full-Time                      12%
four hours a day, seven days a week and will         blogs and wikis) encourages creativity, infor-      Part-Time                      88%
expect on-demand access to research tools,           mation sharing, and collaboration. In addition,
podcasts, online library resources and text-         this trend of technology allows real time inter-   Time of Attendance
books. Flexible scheduling alternatives such         action between students and faculty. The real        Day                           44%
as satellite locations and weekend/night/online      time capability of this technology enhances          Evening                       36%
delivery of courses and services will more           communication whether it is students collab-         Non-Traditional               14%
broadly meet the needs of all students includ-       orating on assignments or faculty conducting         Weekend                        7%
ing those already in the workforce. Meeting          virtual office hours. Phoenix College needs to
these expectations will challenge MCCCD to           explore this collaborative technology as a way
                                                                                                        Educational Intent
look at changing processes, increasing staff-        to effectively expand teaching and learning
                                                                                                         Transfer                       27%
ing in some areas, implementing alternative          practices for whom such things have become
                                                                                                         Improve Skills                 35%
work schedules, expanding the use and func-          part of their lifestyle. Other postsecondary
                                                                                                         Personal Interest              13%
tionality of SIS and other tools for self-service,   institutions have incorporated these technolo-
                                                                                                         Other or Undeclared            25%
and finding resources to meet additional infra-       gies into their operations.
structure costs for student services, faculty,
and information technology.                          Internet radio is an evolving industry and one     Educational Preparation
                                                     of the few that continues to grow, developing       Enrolled in HS                  4%
Part of this change can come from expand-            more listeners and stations. Cited by the Wall      GED or HS Diploma              49%
ing the use of email with students. Google           Street Journal as the fastest-growing web site      Some College                    3%
and Microsoft are working with educational           category, internet radio is projected to reach      Associate’s Degree              3%
institutions to offer free Email accounts to         40% of the US population by the end of 2008.        Bachelor’s Degree               7%
students. Microsoft has partnered with 2,000         The internet radio stations have a wide array       Master’s or Higher              3%
universities and colleges for this program and       of broadcast content; such as, feline news,         Other or Undeclared             6%
has a similar size list waiting to pilot the pro-    grammar lessons, and music. Phoenix College
gram. ASU currently offers this program to           can use this approach to develop connectivity         Figures may not add up to 100%
their students.                                      between the students and the campus.                          due to rounding.

                                                                                                                                              3
                                                                Phoenix College 2008 Environmental Scan

                                                                                HEADCOUNT/FTSE
Both headcount and FTSE have been declin-                                                                                   FY FTSE        FY Headcount
                                                                               7,500                                                                                                      23,000
ing at a steady pace since 2004 with a more
severe drop in headcount this past year (see
graph). During this four year period the results                                                                                                                                          22,000
of this decline are 3,771 students (FY) and                                    7,000
1,060 FTSE. The following green table shows
the change in headcount and FTSE from the                                                                                                                                                 21,000
previous fiscal year.                                                           6,500

                                                                                                                                                                                          20,000
       Fiscal             Headcount                           FTSE
        Year                 +/-                               +/-             6,000
                                                                                                                                                                                          19,000
           2005                   -1608                        -60.9

           2006                         55                    -301.5           5,500
                                                                                                                                                                                          18,000
           2007                      -652                     -292.5

           2008                   -1566                       -405.0           5,000                                                                                                      17,000
                                                                                           2003-2004           2004-2005          2005-2006        2006-2007            2007-2008


Evening Program                                                               Recent High School Graduates
6000

5000
                                                                              Although the number of high school graduates              ates enrolled at Phoenix College (Fall 45th day)
4000
                                                                              in the PUHSD has increased over the last two              has declined during this same period and group
3000
                                                                              years, the number of recent high school gradu-            of student (see graph).
2000
                                                                                                              HS Enrollments at PC             HS Graduates PUHSD
1000

   0
                                                                               500                                                                                                          4300
            Fal l 2004     Fal l 2005          Fal l 2006        Fal l 2007

The evening program has dropped 16% from                                       450                                                                                                          4200
FY 2004, approximately 900 students.
                                                                               400                                                                                                          4100
Veterans Program                                                                                                                                                                            4000
  300                                                                          350
  250                                                                                                                                                                                       3900
                                                                               300
  200
                                                                                                                                                                                            3800
  150
                                                                               250
  100                                                                                                                                                                                       3700
   50                                                                          200
                                                                                                                                                                                            3600
       0
              2004       2005           2006           2007         2008       150
There is a slight decrease (50, 17%) in the                                                                                                                                                 3500
number of veterans since FY 2004. There are                                    100
approximately 250 students that are currently                                                                                                                                               3400
identified in this category.                                                      50                                                                                                         3300
Dual Enrollment                                                                   0                                                                                                         3200
 700
                                                                                           2003             2004             2005          2006             2007              2008
 600

 500

 400                                                                          Bibliography
 300                                                                          Bears, B. (2008, July 4). Universal Technical Institute   Online University Programs - Opportunity or Competition?
 200
                                                                                creates $10 Mil Loan Program. The Arizona Rebuplic,        (2008, June). College Planning & Management ,
                                                                                p. 1.                                                      pp. 50-54.
 100                                                                          Conway, M. (2008, July). The Valley’s Web Celebs. North   Redden, E. (2008, June 17). A National Community Col
   0
                                                                                east Phoenix Times , pp. 16-17  .                          lege? Inside Higher Ed.
            2003-2004    2004-2005         2005-2006           2006-2007      Environmental Scan 2008. Tempe: Maricopa Community        Taking the ‘A’ Out of ... (2008, July). Campus Technology ,
                                                                                Colleges.                                                  pp. 39-43.
The dual enrollment program had grown during                                  Gabrielson, R. (2006, August 27). ASU downtown to test    UA College of Medicine-Phoenix, in Partnership with ASU,
FY 2006 and FY 2007. The program had practi-                                    classroom podcasting. Tribune .                            Receives Accreditation from LCME. (2007). Arizona
                                                                              Labor, U. d. (2008). Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale MSA             Health Sciences Center at the University of Arizona.
cally no enrollment this past year when PUHSD                                   Employment Forecast. Arizona: Bureau of Labor
experienced process changes. This program is                                    Statistics.                                             PC 2008 Environmental Scan information is from multiple
expected to surpass its previous levels due to                                                                                          sources.
the establishment of the dual enrollment coor-
dinator and office.                                                                    Planning, Research and Institutional Effectiveness
4

								
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