NYSERDA Sector-Level Logic Model by byh20111

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									                    SECTOR-LEVEL PROGAM LOGIC
                        LOW-INCOME PROGRAMS
                                  Final Report




                                  Prepared for
                              The New York State
                   Energy Research and Development Authority




                                  Prepared by
                              GDS Associates, Inc.




NYSERDA
September 2007  
NOTICE

This report was prepared by GDS Associates in the course of performing work contracted for and
sponsored by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) (hereafter
the “Sponsor”). The opinions expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect those of the Sponsor or the
State of New York, and reference to any specific product, service, process, or method does not constitute
an implied or expressed recommendation or endorsement of it. Further, the Sponsor, the State of New
York, and the contractor make no warranties or representations, expressed or implied, as to the fitness for
particular purpose or merchantability of any product, apparatus, or service, or the usefulness,
completeness, or accuracy of any processes, methods, or other information contained, described,
disclosed, or referred to in this report. The Sponsor, the State of New York, and the contractor make no
representation that the use of any product, apparatus, process, method, or other information will not
infringe privately owned rights and will assume no liability for any loss, injury, or damage resulting from,
or occurring in connection with, the use of information contained, described, disclosed, or referred to in
this report.
Revised Final Sector-Level Logic                               New York Energy $martSM Low-Income Portfolio



     NEW YORK STATE ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
                                      LOW-INCOME PROGRAMS
                                   SECTOR-LEVEL PROGAM LOGIC
                                   (Revised Final – September 28, 2007)


INTRODUCTION
This document provides:
1.      A table showing a list of documents relating to NYSERDA’s Low-Income Programs used to
        provide insights during development of this sector-level report;
2.      A high level summary of the context within which the Low-Income programs are being designed
        and implemented;
3.      Key program-specific elements, including the ultimate goals of the portfolio, the market barriers,
        targeted market actors, broad program activities, inputs, anticipated outputs/outcomes, and
        potential external influences;
4.      A sector-level logic model diagram showing the linkages between broad Low-Income program
        activities, and expected outputs and outcomes;
5.      A table listing the key outputs and outcomes, including identification of relevant measurement
        indicators and potential data collection approaches to guide later prioritization, and development
        of a monitoring and evaluation plan, and
6.      A list of potential researchable issues for sector-level logic validation.




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Revised Final Sector-Level Logic                                New York Energy $martSM Low-Income Portfolio




1 – RELATED NYSERDA DOCUMENTS
The following table identifies the NYSERDA and other potentially relevant documents that were
reviewed for this report:

Table 1 - Relevant Documents Reviewed
            Document Descriptions
            System Benefits Charge, Proposed Operating Plan for New York Energy $martSM Programs,
            (2006-2011), as amended March 2, 2006.
            New York Energy SmartSM Program Evaluation and Status Report, Final Report, May 2007 –
            Section 4: Low-Income Programs, summaries of relevant program-specific program theory and
            logic analyses, measurement and verification activities, market characterization, market
            assessment and causality evaluation, and process evaluations
            GDS Associates. Final Logic Models for the Multifamily Building Performance Program, the
            Single Family Home Performance Program, the EmPower New York Program, and the Buying
            Strategies and Energy Awareness Program.
            GDS Associates. New York Energy $martSM Low-Income Programs Sector-Level Logic Model
            Report. Final Revised – 5/11/06


2 – CONTEXT AND PORTFOLIO RATIONALE 1
The New York Energy $martSM portfolio of Low-Income programs is expected to help NYSERDA
achieve the four key goals established by the New York State Public Service Commission for the third
cycle of SBC funding. These goals are:
•         Improve New York’s energy system reliability and security by reducing energy demand and
          increasing energy efficiency, supporting innovative transmission and distribution technologies
          that have broad application, and enabling fuel diversity including renewable resources.
•         Reduce the energy cost burden of New Yorkers by offering energy users, particularly the State’s
          lowest income households, services that moderate the effect of energy price increases and
          volatility and provide access to cost-effective energy efficiency options.
•         Mitigate the environmental and health impacts of energy use by increasing energy efficiency,
          encouraging the development of support services for renewable energy resources, and optimizing
          the energy performance of buildings and products.
•         Create economic opportunity and promote economic well being by supporting emerging energy
          technologies, fostering competition, improving productivity, growing New York energy
          businesses, and helping to meet future energy needs through efficiency and innovation.
NYSERDA’s low-income programs are designed to reduce the energy cost burden on low-income
households in New York and deliver services that improve the energy efficiency and overall performance
of the homes of low-income residents. The portfolio addresses the lack of money, access to funding, and
other barriers that typically limit low-income consumers’ ability to use services. The programs also
actively seek to partner with energy services organizations serving this sector to increase the leverage
value of NYSERDA’s funding. In addition, NYSERDA’s low-income programs are fuel neutral,
allowing the program to significantly reduce the energy cost burden on low-income households. Fuel



1
    The following description comes from the Plan for New York Energy $martSM Programs 2006-2011. Pg 8.1-8.2.

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Revised Final Sector-Level Logic                                       New York Energy $martSM Low-Income Portfolio


neutrality provides flexibility in selecting electric and fossil fuel efficiency measures that are the most
cost effective and have the biggest impact on alleviating the energy burden on consumers.
To achieve its goals, the programs will use the following strategies:
       •   Deliver comprehensive energy efficiency services to low-income households in new and existing
           one-to-four family and multifamily buildings through market-based residential programs. The
           low-income components offer a higher level of incentives to low-to-moderate income households
           than is offered to other households. These are provided to help overcome the financial barriers to
           adoption of energy efficiency measures that are more pronounced in the low-income sector.
       •   Reduce energy costs and improve the affordability of energy for low-income households by
           influencing the energy standards and specifications of major housing entities.
       •   Target specific underserved populations, including seniors and others on limited incomes not
           reached by or eligible for federally-funded weatherization services, for delivery of NYSERDA’s
           energy efficiency services.
       •   Use local community agencies and organizations to deliver energy efficiency and energy use
           management education to low-income residents, including those in multifamily buildings, to give
           residents more control over their energy costs.
       •   Coordinate energy efficiency services with utility low-income payment assistance programs to
           maximize their impact on affordability.
       •   Increase the availability of low cost energy efficiency audit and project financing opportunities
           for low-income property owners.
       •   Use the collective buying power of the low-income sector to reduce energy costs where possible.
       •   Include health and safety, quality control, and quality assurance as primary outcomes for all
           programs.


2.1        LOW-INCOME PROGRAM SUMMARIES
The New York Energy $martSM Low-Income 2006-2011 program portfolio reflects consolidations of
programs offered in previous cycles of SBC funding. This consolidation was in response to PSC staff
recommendations that NYSERDA simplify program participants’ access to programs, increase
coordination of program outreach and marketing, simplify application processes and simplify the program
monitoring and evaluation-tracking database. 2 As a result, the programs implemented in the second cycle
of SBC funding have been consolidated into four programs in the third cycle of SBC funding.

Table 2 - New York Energy $martSM Low-Income Programs 2006-2011
    2006-2011 Program                                         Program Description



(Low-Income) Single     This program targets new and existing one-to-four family homes through two initiatives – Assisted
Family Home             Home Performance with ENERGY STAR (HPwES) and Assisted New York ENERGY STAR
Performance Program     Labeled Homes (NYESLH). The program strives to include high efficiency measures and
                        equipment and advanced technologies (ground source heat pumps, advanced meters) into new and
                        existing housing. Both assisted components are subsets of the residential market-rate initiatives,
                        but provide increased incentives up to 50% of the cost of eligible improvements for income
                        eligible consumers (up to 80% of the state median income). In particular, the program works to



2
 New York State Public Service Commission, Case 05-M-0090-In the Matter of the System Benefits Charge III,
Staff Proposal for the Extension of the System Benefits Charge (SBC) and the SBC-Funded Public Benefit
Programs, August 30, 2005.

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Revised Final Sector-Level Logic                                        New York Energy $martSM Low-Income Portfolio



 2006-2011 Program                                             Program Description


                        create a well-trained infrastructure of homebuilders and home improvement contractors that
                        provide services to this sector. Efforts will target low-income housing agencies such as New York
                        City Housing Preservation and Development, U.S. HUD and Habitat for Humanity among others.
                        The assisted program will also focus on specifying agencies to ensure that energy-efficient design
                        practices are incorporated into home specifications. The program also strives to educate low-
                        income homeowners and low-income property providers (such as Habitat for Humanity and local
                        initiatives to increase new affordable housing units) on the benefits of including energy efficiency
                        in new construction and home improvement projects.

(Low-Income)            In the third cycle of funding one multifamily program serves both low-income and market rate
Multifamily Building    buildings (new construction, rehabilitation, and gut rehabilitation). The program will provide
Performance Program     technical assistance to market participants from the design stage through operation of the
                        building’s mechanical systems to provide maximum energy and bill savings to building owners
                        and tenants. Training will be provided for engineers, architects, building owners and auditors,
                        maintenance staff and tenants, so the rationale behind energy efficient measures and equipment are
                        better understood. The program will also recruit and promote consultants to partner as specialist
                        teams to building owners/decision-makers to provide audit and financial packaging services and
                        loan assistance. The program also provides direct incentives and/or interest rate write-downs to
                        facilitate installation of energy efficiency and load reduction measures.
Buying Strategies and   The Buying Strategies component works to improve energy affordability for low-income
Energy Awareness        customers through negotiated discounts with oil vendors that reduce the price of fuel oil provided
                        through the Home Energy Assistance Program (HEAP). Free furnace/boiler cleaning and tune up
                        service are also provided by a subset of participating oil vendors. The Energy Awareness
                        component includes the Low-Income Forum on Energy (LIFE), one of the largest and most
                        comprehensive public forums dedicated to identifying and discussing issues facing the State’s low-
                        income population in the evolving deregulated energy market. The Energy Smart Students (ESS)
                        component partners with a variety of education associations throughout New York to educate
                        students on energy efficiency and include their school facilities in efficiency projects as
                        demonstrations and educational opportunities. Finally, the New York Energy $mart Communities
                        Initiative brings organizations and agencies together to develop and support local projects that
                        serve as demonstrations of energy efficiency and renewable technologies and show how these
                        projects create economic, social, and environmental benefits.

EmPower New YorkSM      EmPower New YorkSM serves households with incomes below 60% of state median income or
                        enrolled in utility low-income payment assistance programs. The primary focus of the program is
                        on electric reduction measures (e.g., ENERGY STAR lighting and refrigerators). Home
                        performance services are also provided where they offer the best means of improving energy
                        affordability and comfort, and wherever possible, are coordinated and cost-shared with the federal
                        Weatherization Assistance Program. Home performance services include insulation, heating
                        system repair and replacement, air sealing and health and safety measures. There is no cost to the
                        customer for these services and equipment. Participants can also attend free workshops on energy
                        use and financial management offered by the Cornell Cooperative Extension. In the third cycle of
                        SBC funding the Weatherization Network Initiative (WNI) was merged with this program.
                        Program services are provided through a network of weatherization agencies and private energy
                        services contractors, all of who are accredited by the Building Performance Institute (BPI).



3        KEY ELEMENTS SUMMARY
Based on a review of relevant NYSERDA documents, below is a summary of some key elements of the
New York Energy $martSM Low-Income Portfolio.

3.1      Ultimate Goals
NYSERDA’s Low-Income program portfolio is designed to address all four overarching goals for the
third cycle of SBC funding by expanding program/service delivery channels, facilitating implementation
of projects that result in energy savings and peak demand reduction, overcoming information barriers that
prevent housing owners, product/service vendors, installers and end-users from installing the highest

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Revised Final Sector-Level Logic                                          New York Energy $martSM Low-Income Portfolio


efficiency products, and by developing sustainable housing and contractor markets for energy efficiency
and demand management.
The supply-side, market infrastructure and demand side goals for the broader Low-Income portfolio are
listed in Table 3.

Table 3 – Goals for NYSERDA’s Low-Income Programs
      Supply-Side and Market Infrastructure/Policy                                  Demand-Side
    Increased number of firms (contractors, home builders,     Sustained energy savings and reduced energy costs for
    architects, equipment suppliers, etc.) with knowledge,     low-income residential customers
    experience and willingness to provide energy efficiency    Building owners and low-income customers recognize
    products (including housing) and services to the low-      value of energy-efficient equipment and consider energy
    income residential sector                                  efficiency in their purchasing decisions
    Financial institutions recognize the potential for lower   Residential customers and building owners have reliable
    risk and accelerated paybacks resulting from energy        information on which to understand and base their
    efficiency investments, and in turn are more willing to    energy-related decisions
    support energy efficiency projects in the low-income
    residential sector                                         Increased consumer awareness about the benefits of
                                                               energy efficiency options
    Larger and sustainable market for energy-efficient
    products and services in the low-income residential        Customers and building owners have confidence in
    sector                                                     energy savings estimates
    Improved regulations and purchasing criteria at housing    Access to residential energy-efficient products and
    agencies to facilitate adoption of energy-efficient        services is improved for low-income customers
    equipment and products in the low-income residential       Customers value the energy efficiency, comfort and
    sector                                                     safety features of their homes and associated purchases
    Improved information for policymakers about energy
    and housing issues that directly affect the low-income
    sector



The portfolio is designed to achieve Market Infrastructure/Policy goals by: leveraging the market
relationships NYSERDA has built among trade allies to develop sustainable housing and contractor
service markets for energy efficiency and demand management, overcoming informational barriers that
prevent building designers, vendors, and installers from installing the highest efficiency products;
expanding NYSERDA’s presence and credibility among public service providers and partnership
agencies; expanding service delivery channels to procure lower cost heating fuels; and increasing the
quantity and quality of information that policymakers receive about low-income energy and housing
issues.
The portfolio is designed to achieve the goals on the Demand side through activities that: facilitate
residential building projects and measure installations that result in energy savings and peak demand
reduction; provide incentives and an increased level of financing to low-income residents and building
developers; provide relevant information to low-income energy users and building owner/operators that
improves confidence in the value of efficiency projects; and improve access to energy efficiency products
and energy services.
The portfolio’s success will be measured using evaluation, program tracking system summaries, and
baseline studies that track the energy saved, number of customers served, and number of housing units
built/served per program per year. Over $190 million will be invested in Low-Income portfolio programs
between 7/1/2006-6/30/2011. Following are specific numeric five-year goals established for each of the
Low-Income portfolio programs 3 :




3
    System Benefits Charge Proposed Plan for New York Energy $martSM Programs 2006-2011, March 2, 2006.

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Revised Final Sector-Level Logic                                         New York Energy $martSM Low-Income Portfolio



(Low-Income) Single Family Home Performance Program
      •   4,000 new homes built through NYESLH
      •   2.4 gWh saved through NYESLH
      •   10,500 existing households served through HPwES
      •   10.3 gWh saved through HPwES
(Low-Income) Multifamily Building Performance Program
      •   12,700 new units receiving services
      •   15.0 gWh saved in new units
      •   148,200 existing units receiving services
      •   178.5 gWh saved in existing units
Buying Strategies and Energy Awareness
      •   $20 million additional funding leveraged
      •   50 additional contractors recruited in low-income districts
EmPower New YorkSM
      •   31,500 households served
      •   51.1 gWh saved



3.2       Market Barriers/Issues the Portfolio Attempts to Address (“the Problem”):
Barriers associated with the low-income sector can be broken down into three general categories: barriers
affecting the supply side, barriers affecting the mid-market/infrastructure, and barriers affecting the
demand side market actors. Supply-side barriers are defined as obstacles that delay or impede the
delivery and availability of energy efficient products or services into the marketplace. Mid-
market/infrastructure barriers are defined as obstacles that impede the willingness or ability to provide or
deliver the products or services. Demand-side barriers are defined as barriers that deter customer demand
for a product or service, such as limited financial resources and/or a lack of awareness, education, and
training regarding energy efficiency options. Table 4 lists specific barriers related to market actors (not
ordered by priority) for the low-income sector.

Table 4 – Low-Income Sector Market Barriers and Actors
Market Area                                             Barriers                                       Market Actors
 Supply side     S1 – Perceptions of a lack of demand for energy efficiency and new energy             Manufacturers
                 technologies for multifamily buildings                                                Distributors
                 S2 – Inferior or inconsistent housing product quality                                 Suppliers
                 S3 – Lack of availability of high efficiency product at reasonable prices             Oil vendors

                 S4 – Lack of energy efficient equipment and new energy technologies in general
                 S5 – Lack of consolidated bargaining efforts from low-income customers and HEAP
                 agencies to negotiate lower oil prices for low-income customers and HEAP recipients




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Revised Final Sector-Level Logic                                          New York Energy $martSM Low-Income Portfolio



 Market           M1 – Traditional housing design/building practices that do not adequately consider       Housing
 infrastructure   energy efficiency                                                                        developers and
 / policy         M2 – Lack of availability of eligible contractors and energy efficient equipment         designers
 (upstream and                                                                                             Contractors
 mid-stream       M3 – Contractors resistance to dealing with low-income financial eligibility processes
 actors)                                                                                                   Distributors
                  M4 – Contractors’ lack of interest in changing from the equipment and services they
                  have been providing                                                                      Lenders

                  M5 – Limited contractor skill sets (e.g., hard-wired lighting)                           Community
                                                                                                           Based
                  M6 – Cost of training and certification for energy services contractors                  Organizations
                  M7 –Reluctance of repair and maintenance service providers to work with landlords        (CBOs)
                                                                                                           Local Case
                  M8– Lack of industry standards for some services (e.g., furnace cleaning and
                                                                                                           Managers
                  maintenance services, CO testing)
                                                                                                           (LCMs)
                  M9 – Inadequate level of federal weatherization funding to meet needs of low-income
                                                                                                           Regulators
                  households
                                                                                                           Low-income
                  M10 – High staff turnover at partner agencies (CBOs, WAP, DSS)                           policy makers
                  M11 – Tradition of business practices and regulations that limit the use of life-cycle
                  cost analysis for low-income properties
                  M12 – Lender uncertainty regarding how to process and account for loans (for
                  efficiency and new energy technology projects) that deviate from standard practices
                  M13 – Regulations that deter design and installation of energy efficiency
                  improvements
                  M14 – Lack of standards for advanced meters and common connectivity environment
                  for broad market development of advanced metering and real time pricing products
                  and services
                  M15 – Incomplete understanding of low-income energy issues by policy makers and
                  staff in a variety of low-income assistance efforts
                  M16 – Lack of information dissemination about low-income energy issues
                  M17 – Greater competition for partnering with market actors to accomplish goals of a
                  diverse variety of efficiency programs and organizations
 Demand side      D1 – Limited resources (financial and informational) of income-eligible customers to     Low income
 (downstream      address energy efficiency in their homes                                                 customers
 actors)          D2 – Split incentives for rental units (building owners often do not pay the energy
                  bills; tenant does but has little incentive/ability to improve the property)             Multifamily
                  D3 – Inadequate security to ensure that energy-efficient equipment stays in place        building owners
                  D4 – Lack of consumer awareness of the benefits of energy-efficient equipment            and managers

                  D5 – Lack of reliable info on energy-efficient practices in existing homes
                  D6 – Resistance to new and/or innovative technologies
                  D7 – Equipment performance uncertainties
                  D8 – Lack of financing to construct or make improvements to low-income properties
                  D9 – Lack of consideration of operation and maintenance costs compared to first cost
                  outlays when making capital investment decisions (multifamily building owners)
                  D10 – Language and geographic barriers (e.g., rural locations) that hinder energy
                  information dissemination
                  D11 – Low-income customers’ misperceptions about program eligibility requirements
                  D12 – Limited awareness by income-eligible customers of weatherization, fuel
                  assistance, and other services related to energy use in homes
                  D13 – Confusion, information costs and lack of trust due to increased efficiency
                  promotional efforts from multiple sources




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Revised Final Sector-Level Logic                                          New York Energy $martSM Low-Income Portfolio




3.3       Targeted Market Actors
The Low-Income Portfolio targets a broad range of partner agencies, contractors, vendors, housing
designers/builders, equipment installers and auditors working at all aspects of the production and delivery
of energy efficient housing, products and services targeted towards low-income customers. Additionally,
Low-Income sector programs work directly with other stakeholders integral to the overall success of the
programs. These stakeholders include regulatory bodies, lending institutions, and policy makers and
program staff representing low-income customer interests.
On the demand-side, NYSERDA’s Low-Income Portfolio targets low-income customers and low-income
property owners and managers.

3.4       Portfolio Implementation Approach (“Activities”)
NYSERDA’s Low-Income sector programs include a number of activities that lead to short- and long-
term outcomes supporting the goals of the third cycle of SBC funding. These activities can be
categorized into five main types of activities: (1) Marketing and Outreach; (2) Training, Certification,
Recruitment and Audits; (3) Incentives, Direct Installation and Energy Services; (4) Education for
Customers and Policy Makers; and (5) Verification and Quality Assessment/Quality Control. The
activities of a given program may focus more upon the supply side or demand side of the equation, but
generally program portfolio activities include efforts to reach both the market infrastructure and the
demand side. The activities listed in Table 5 were reviewed and generalized from program-specific logic
models developed for individual programs in 2006 and 2007 to inform planning and evaluation activities
associated with the third cycle of SBC funding.

  Table 5 – Low-Income Sector Activities
                                                        Policy and Planning
      Coordination with low-income housing specifying agencies and programs (e.g., HUD, ENERGY STAR, Habitat for
      Humanity)
      LIFE conferences and forums on low-income energy and housing issues
                                           Agency Partnering and Program Information
      Coordination with Home Energy Assistance Program (HEAP) so HEAP participants can participate in the Oil Buying
      Strategies Program
      Coordination with the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) agencies to identify participants eligible for direct
      install services
      Coordination with Department of Social Services (DSS), Offices for the Aging and utilities to identify eligible low-
      income customers
      Collaborating with the Office of the Attorney General, Enterprise Community, environmental groups and “green”
      agencies to promote energy efficienct and affordable housing
      Consumer hotline (1-877-NY-SMART) and program specific hotlines
      Print materials for agency partners, low-income property developers, participating contractors/vendors, and customers
      Program websites
      TV, radio, press releases, case studies




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Revised Final Sector-Level Logic                                           New York Energy $martSM Low-Income Portfolio




  Table 5 – Low-Income Sector Activities (continued)
                                                Recruitment, Training, and Certification
      Training of CBO and DSS agency staff
      Recruit lenders for loan assistance
      Energy efficiency training for building owners, developers, architects, engineers, raters and facility managers
      Recruiting and training of building specialist teams (operations, maintenance, consultants)
      Recruiting and training specialized energy services contractors (heating equipment, HVAC, building shell)
      Marketing to developers of low-income multifamily properties
      Work with advanced metering suppliers and developers
      Support for BPI certification of New York contractors and firms
      Development of an audit industry for low-income housing
      Development of audit certification in order to standardize the audit process and bring costs down
      Training and guidelines to ensure consistent use of TREAT audit software
                                            Incentives, Direct Installs, Other Energy Services
      Direct installs of energy efficient equipment
      Home performance/weatherization services (e.g., insulation, heating system repair, air-sealing)
      Health and safety measures (e.g., CO detectors, emergency repairs)
      Reduced-cost home heating fuel
      Free cleaning and tune up service for furnaces/boilers
      Buildings contracting, design, construction management and commissioning advice/assistance to promote energy
      efficiency
      Incentives for ENERGY STAR housing and energy-efficient measures
      (Loan Fund) Financing assistance/interest rate writedowns
      ENERGY STAR financing
      Support for finding funding and financial packaging for builders
      Cooperative advertising funding
      Reduced price or free energy audits
      Energy use and financial management workshops for customers (including tax credits)
                                        Verification and Quality Assurance / Quality Control
      Verifications of installations
      Installation quality checks
      Monitoring of post-installation energy savings
      Construction oversight




3.5       Portfolio Inputs and Potential External Influences
Specific outputs and outcomes expected to flow from Low-Income portfolio program activities are shown
in the logic diagram in Section 4 below. More information on these outputs, outcomes and associated
measurement indicators can be found in Tables 7 and 8 immediately following the diagram (see Section
4).
The ability of the Portfolio to accomplish the outputs and outcomes likely to result in the ultimate goals
for the third cycle of SBC funding is dependent on the level and quality/effectiveness of inputs that go
into these efforts. Key Portfolio inputs and potential external influences are presented in Table 6.

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Revised Final Sector-Level Logic                                            New York Energy $martSM Low-Income Portfolio




Table 6 – Low-Income Sector Inputs and External Influences
                                                          Program Inputs
    SBC funding
    NYSERDA staff experience implementing first two cycles of SBC-funded programs
    Staff and funds from other State and Federal low-income agencies
    NYSERDA’s relationships with key stakeholders and policy makers
    Existing partnerships with low-income agencies
    Trade ally and contractor expertise
                                                        External Influences
    Weather impacts on customer actions and energy use
    Costs and performance of newer, more energy efficient technologies
    Changes in state political priorities and regulations (e.g., Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard, New York Governor
    15x15 target, New York City 30x30 target, New York State Clean Air Insterstate Rules)
    Changes to state building codes and standards
    Federal low-income housing programs structure and legislated processes
    Federal funding for HEAP and other government (non-NYSERDA) funding for low-income programs (e.g.,
    weatherization)
    Activities of competing non-NYSERDA efficiency efforts, to the extent that efforts working in the same markets are
    separate and can not be coordinated with NYSERDA
    Utility “de-coupling” (i.e., compensating utilities for lost revenues due to efficiency gains)
    Perceptions of importance of global climate change
    Level of interest rates, which affect home improvement activities
    Local, regional and national economic conditions and energy prices
    Other low-income household expenses (e.g., medical expenses, transportation, education, child care, etc.)
    Diversity and dispersion of the low-income population across state regions
    Master versus sub-metering
    Other State and Federal energy policies.



4        PORTFOLIO LOGIC MODEL DIAGRAM
The following page contains NYSERDA’s New York Energy $martSM Low-Income Sector-Level logic
model diagram showing the linkages between activities, outputs and outcomes, and identifying inputs and
potential external influences. The logic model depicts the portfolio as it is described in plans for the third
cycle of SBC funding. The diagram presents a high level representation of how the clusters of activities
occurring in the Low-Income Portfolio are expected to lead to the outputs and outcomes that will achieve
the goals of the third cycle of SBC funding. The logic diagram presented here is at a higher level than the
tables in this report, aggregating some of the outcomes, in order to provide a logic model that is easier to
read. (Evaluation research should use the more detailed tables, in addition to the diagram, in examining
the anticipated linkages and performance through the various outcomes.)




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Revised Final Sector-Level Logic                                                                                         New York Energy $martSM Low-Income Portfolio



                                                                                                                                                                                                       Adjust for QA /
   Inputs:                                                                                                                                                                                             QC findings
   SBC and other funds, staff
   experience, contractors,                                                                                                                          Recruitment/
                                                                                              Agency Partnering,                                                                                           Direct Installs/                                             Verification,
   partner agencies                          Policy and Planning                                                                                      Training /                                                                         End-use consumers,
                                                                                             Program Information                                                                                          Energy Services/             energy efficient building          QA /QC
                                                                                                                                                     Certification                                      Financial Assistance           specialists, contractors,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         consultants, lenders,
                                                             Program staff, policy makers,                   HEAP, CBOs , WAP , DSS ,                              Contractors, building                                                auditors, heating fuel                      Vendors
                         Market Actors                       regulators, low-income energy                    utilities, seniors/housing                        owners/developers, auditors,
       Activities                                                                                                                                                                                                                               vendors
                                                             service providers                               agencies, "green" agencies                             consultants, lenders

                                            Programs coordination                           Agency partnerships                             Housing developers, energy                   Direct installs, reduced             Energy services ( e.g.,
                                          with low-income housing                           established, program                             services contractors, mid-                    price heating fuel,                maintenance/repairs),
                                          specifiying agencies (e.g.,                    information and assistance                          market partners recruited.                   incentives/financing                  technical building
                                         HUD), LIFE meetings and                         available, outreach services                        Training and certifications                  options available for           assistance, audits, customer
        Outputs                           conferences organized and                                 created                                 available. Audit procedures                 energy efficient housing/          energy/financial education
                                           conducted; Collaboration                                                                                  established                                 measures
                                           with other efficiency and
                                         demand response programs
                                               and organizations                                                                                                              Housing audited, EE measures
                                                                                          Increased awareness and
                                                                                        understanding of low-income                        Mid-market program                 installed, homes weatherized,                kW, kWh and therm
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Field assessments of
                                                                                          programs and specific EE                         participants recruited                 more efficient housing                 savings, bill reductions,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      contractor work,
                                           Increased awareness of                           opportunities, eligible                              and trained                     constructed, heating fuel                improved air quality,
      Short-Term                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     confirmed savings,
                                             low-income energy                             customers and projects                                                              procured, heating equipment                 comfort and safety
      Outcomes                                                                                                                                                                            repaired                                                                 results communicated
                                          issues and best practices                               identified
                                          by program staff, policy
                                          makers, housing agencies
                                                                                                 Builders, contractors, vendors and
                                                                                                                                                                                Participants more
                                                                                                 mid-stream actors finding efficiency
                                                                                                                                                                             knowledgeable about EE
                                                                                                   options and services profitable
                                                                                                                                                                               benefits and options
                                                                                                         through the programs


                                                Policy changes at
                                              partnership agencies                                                           Market participants actively                                                 Demand for EE products, services
                                               to promote energy                                                           promoting EE products, services                                              and housing continues to increase (as
      Intermediate-                          efficiency, changes to                                                      (audits, energy analysis) and housing                                             allowed by income constraints)
          Term                                low-income housing                                                                 (e.g., ENERGY STAR)
        Outcomes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Customers experience
                                                                                                                         Market infrastructure established to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                reduced energy costs,
                                                                                                                            effectively serve low-income
                                                                                                                                                                                                                improved air quality,
                                                                                                                             customers throughout state
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 comfort and safety



                                                                                                                         EE becomes standard part of low-                                                 Sustained EE market in the low
                                                                                                                            income housing/equipment                                                               income sector
                                                                                                                                    decisions


      Longer-Term
       Outcomes                                                    Improved environmental                                      More efficient residential/                                                      Reduced energy cost
                                                                    quality, economic well-                                   low-income building stock,                                                       burden for low-income
                                                                              being.                                           sustained energy savings                                                             households


                                                                                                         SBC III Goals


                                  External Influences: Rules and regulations at state and federal housing agencies. Other state and federal energy policies. Agency structures, legislated processes.
                                  Utility revenue de-coupling. General economic conditions and energy prices. Costs and performance newer technologies. Other household expenses. Weather impacts.
                                  Interest rates. Master versus sub-metering. Perceptions of importance of global climate change. Diversity and dispersion of low-income population across state.




                                                                                                                                                                     11
Revised Final Sector-Level Logic                                       New York Energy $martSM Low-Income Portfolio



5           OUTPUTS, OUTCOMES AND ASSOCIATED MEASUREMENT INDICATORS
It is important to distinguish between outputs and outcomes. For the purposes of this logic document,
outputs are defined as the immediate results from specific program activities. These results are typically
easily identified and can often be counted by reviewing program records.
Outcomes are distinguished from outputs by their less direct (and often harder to quantify) results from
specific program activities. Outcomes represent anticipated impacts associated with NYSERDA’s
program activities and will vary depending on the time period being assessed. On a continuum, program
activities will lead to immediate outputs that, if successful, will collectively work toward achievement of
anticipated short, intermediate and long-term program outcomes.
The following tables list outputs (Table 7) and outcomes (Table 8), taken directly from the logic model
and associated measurement indicators. For each indicator, a proposed data source or collection approach
is presented. When required, the need for baseline data is also noted. Items in these tables should be
prioritized and subsequently considered as potential areas for investigation as part of a formal program
evaluation plan.

Table 7 - Outputs, Associated Indicators and Potential Data Sources
      Outputs (< 1 year)                              Indicators                             Data Sources and Potential
                                                                                              Collection Approaches
                                                  Policy and Planning
    Coordination with low-     Frequency and nature of interactions with low-income         Program tracking data
    income housing             policy makers, regulators and housing agencies               Interviews with program staff
    specifying agencies to
    promote energy efficient
    designs and equipment
    Low-Income                 Number and description of low-income                          LIFE program tracking data
    conferences/workshops      conferences/workshops held and number and affiliations of     Workshop sign-up
    held                       attendees                                                     information


    Coordination across        Regular progam communications and coordination                Assessment of program
    NYSERDA programs for       Program synergies identified and capitalized on               interactions and their
    greater effectiveness                                                                    outcomes
    Cooperative agreements     Number, type, and geographic area of cooperative              Program records
    within region and with     agreements reached with manufacturers, other programs in      Program monitoring
    national efforts           region, and national initiatives
                                     Agency Partnering and Program Information
    Agency partnerships        Number and composition of CBO, utility and agency             Program tracking data
    established                partnerships established
    Program materials,         Program website hits                                          Program tracking data
    hotlines and websites      Calls to program hotlines                                     Website monitoring
    created
                               Number and nature of printed program materials distributed    Phone records
                               Number and placement of TV and radio ads
                               Number and nature of press releases
                               Number and nature of events and special promotions
                               conducted




                                                             12
Revised Final Sector-Level Logic                                            New York Energy $martSM Low-Income Portfolio


                                         Recruitment, Training, and Certification
 Building owners,               Number and characteristics of building professionals           Program tracking data
 developers and operators       (owners, developers, managers), technical service providers    Survey of auditors
 identified and recruited,      and other stakeholders recruited
 approved lists of vendors,     Number, types and geographic distribution of energy
 contractors and                auditors/building raters recruited
 consultants set.
                                Number and characteristics of lending partners recruited
                                Number and characteristics of energy services contractors
                                and consultants recruited, included on approved
                                contractor/consultant lists


 Training materials and         Number and types of contractor, auditor and building           Program tracking data
 classes developed,             developer/operator training sessions developed
 certification and BPI          Number and types of certification and BPI accreditation
 accreditation opportunities    opportunities provided and training materials and classses
 provided                       developed
 Standardized audit             Descriptions of established standard audit processes           Program tracking data
 processes established                                                                         Auditor interviews
                                Direct Installs, Energy Services and Financial Assistance
 Incentives, cost sharing       Number, amounts and types of incentives                        Program tracking data
 and financial options (e.g.,   Number, amounts and sources of cost sharing options            Market survey of financing
 financing assistance and                                                                      options and interest rates
 low interest loans)            Number of different financing options available
                                                                                               offered
 available                      Size of interest rate discounts available


 Direct installs, home          Number and nature of direct install and home                   Program tracking data
 weatherization, reduced        weatherization services available                              Survey of auditors
 cost energy audits, free       Impacts of auditor training and standardized audit processes
 furnace/boiler tune-up                                                                        Review of audit service prices
                                on the price of energy audits available
 services, reduced price                                                                       Market survey of heating fuel
 heating fuel and housing       Number and nature of free tune-up services for                 providers
 design and construction        furnaces/boilers that are available
 support services available     Amount and nature of housing construction assistance
                                available
                                Amount and nature of support made available to building
                                owners wanting design and construction management
                                services
                                Number and distribution of reduced-cost heating fuel
                                providers participating
 Energy use and financial       Number and nature of in-home energy education materials        Program tracking data
 management education           distributed and energy/financial management classes
 available to customers         available
                                                   Verification & QA / QC
 Addressed in “Outcomes”        N/A
 Table




                                                                13
Revised Final Sector-Level Logic                                          New York Energy $martSM Low-Income Portfolio


Table 8 – Program Logic Model Outcomes
                                                                                            Data Sources and Potential
          Outcomes                                        Indicators
                                                                                             Collection Approaches
                          Short-Term (1-5 years) and Intermediate-Term (5-9 years) Outcomes
 Increased awareness of low-      Level of awareness of low-income energy issues and best   Baseline assessment of low-
 income energy issues and         practices for assistance and housing design               income policy maker
 assistance best practices                                                                  awareness, and surveys to
 among program staff, policy                                                                measure change over time
 makers, housing agencies
                                                                                            Interviews with low-income
                                                                                            program, policy and housing
                                                                                            agency staff




 Increased understanding of        Change in awareness and understanding of NYSERDA          Project tracking data on
 NYSERDA low-income                low-income programs among partner agencies                customer participation,
 programs by partner               Change in knowledge levels of energy efficiency           housing projects assisted
 agencies and knowledge of         opportunities and associated benefits                     Baseline assessment of
 energy efficiency                                                                           agency awareness and
 opportunities and potential       Customers reached and outreach support provided
                                                                                             knowledge and surveys to
 benefits. Eligible customers      Number and composition of participant customers           measure changes in
 and projects identified           identified                                                awareness and knowledge
                                   Share of eligible target market reached, participating    levels over time
                                   Number of housing projects identified as eligible for
                                   asssistance
Contractors, building owners,     Number of composition of mid-market program
developers, operators, auditors   participants trained                                      Program tracking data
trained in energy efficiency                                                                Program staff interviews
concepts and specific
technologies/services




                                                                14
Revised Final Sector-Level Logic                                     New York Energy $martSM Low-Income Portfolio

                                                                                          Data Sources and Potential
         Outcomes                                    Indicators
                                                                                           Collection Approaches
 Incentives/financial          Dollar amount of incentives provided and/or cost sharing    Review of program data
 assistance, audits, direct    opportunities made available                                records
 installations of energy       Number of direct installations funded and the nature        Interviews with program
 efficiency equipment, homes   (types of energy efficiency equipment, furnace/boiler       staff and participants
 weatherized, heating fuel     tune-ups) of these installations
 procured, construction
 assistance provided, new      Number of homes receiving weatherization services
 energy efficient housing      Number of audits provided and associated costs per audit
 built and energy efficiency
                               Number and types of energy efficiency opportunities
 measures installed
                               identified
                               Amount and nature of construction assistance provided
                               Amount and nature of support made available to building
                               owners wanting design and construction management
                               services and quantification of number and types of
                               support actually provided
                               Total number and types of low-income housing projects
                               completed and their geographic distribution across the
                               state
                               Amount of reduced-price heating fuel provided
 Participants realize          Total kWh, kW and therm savings                             Participant surveys
 immediate kW, kWh and         Impacts that these savings have on participants’ energy     Billing analysis
 therm savings, energy bill    bills (bill reductions)
 reductions, and have                                                                      Audit results
 improved air quality,         Improved home air quality, comfort and safety               Engineering analysis /
 comfort and safety                                                                        simulations
 Builders, contractors,        Change in visibility, availability and sales of energy-     Market penetration of
 vendors and mid-stream        efficient products and services in the low-income market    energy efficiency products
 actors finding efficiency     Change in the amount of profitable business being           Survey of vendors and
 options and services          conducted by product and service providers and other        suppliers
 profitable through the        mid-stream market actors
 programs                                                                                  Survey of installation
                                                                                           contractors




                                                           15
Revised Final Sector-Level Logic                                        New York Energy $martSM Low-Income Portfolio


 Participants are more           Change in participant knowledge                             Interviews with
 knowledgeable about energy      Change in customer awareness and demand                     participating and non-
 saving behaviors and                                                                        participating customers
 measures and as a result                                                                    Surveys of vendors and
 customer awareness and                                                                      mid-market actors
 demand for energy efficient
 products/services/housing is
 increasing
 Verification of installations   Number of field assessments and verifications               Program tracking data
 and energy savings              Share of total projects verified                            On-site and phone
                                 Amount of verified savings                                  verifications

                                 Ratio of verified savings to originally estimated savings   Billing analysis

 Policy and program changes      Number and types of policy and program changes made         Interviews with partnership
 at relevant agencies to         Number and types of changes to low-income housing           agencies
 promote energy efficiency in    codes and standards                                         Interviews with building
 low-income sector                                                                           owners and other market
                                                                                             actors that interact with
                                                                                             these agencies and
                                                                                             build/rehab low-income
                                                                                             properties
 Market participants actively    Increased program participation                             Interviews with market
 promoting efficiency            Amount of advertising and promotion done by                 actors and trade allies,
 products/services/housing,      participants and trade allies outside NYSERDA programs      including program
 delivery channels expanding                                                                 partnership agencies
 through NYSERDA                 Changes in supply of efficiency measures, services,
                                 housing and funding due to NYSERDA                          Comparison of
 programs                                                                                    interview/survey results
                                 Multiple programs mutually supporting consistent market     over time
                                 development within region and with national efforts
 Established market              Change in the level of active support and promotion of      Survey of market
 infrastructure of EE builders   energy efficiency products, housing and associated          participants and trade allies
 and support services,           services by market participants and trade allies            (contractors, retailers,
 contractors, auditors, and      Number and types of service providers and retailers         consultants, etc.)
 retailers of energy-efficient   supporting NYSERDA low-income programs                      Interviews with building
 equipment                                                                                   owners and other market
                                 Description of changed and/or expanded energy
                                 efficiency product/service/housing delivery channels        actors that rehab low-
                                 resulting from use of NYSERDA programs                      income properties

                                 Number of certified auditors                                Survey / interviews with
                                                                                             auditors
                                 Growth in auditors over time
                                 Share of auditors working in the low-income market
                                 Total number of audits completed
                                 Years of experience for certified auditors
 Customers experience            Change in customer energy costs                             Interviews with
 reduced energy costs,           Improved home air quality, comfort and safety               participating customers,
 improved air quality,                                                                       building owners
 comfort and safety                                                                          Participant surveys
                                                                                             Billing analysis
                                                                                             Audit results
                                                                                             Engineering analysis /
                                                                                             simulations




                                                              16
Revised Final Sector-Level Logic                                           New York Energy $martSM Low-Income Portfolio


                                             Long-Term Outcomes (10+ years)
    Energy efficiency becomes       Energy efficiency products and building practices are        Interviews with non-
    standard part of design and     incorporated without NYSERDA or other program                participating customers and
    investment decisions for        assistance                                                   property managers
    low-income properties           Share of housing projects incorporating energy efficient     Interviews with project
                                    designs and equipment                                        financers
    Robust, sustainable market      Change in the penetration of residential energy efficiency   Surveys with end-use
    for residential energy-         products and services in the low-income sector (amount       customers, building
    efficient technologies,         of energy efficiency equipment/services sold for low-        owners, products and
    housing and services in the     income projects annually)                                    service providers and other
    low-income sector               Change in the amount and types of energy efficiency          key market actors
                                    services and products being targeted towards the low-
                                    income sector with limited NYSERDA support
                                    Growth in sales to low-income sector
    Low-income residents            Amount spent on energy bills is reduced from previous        Low-income participant
    realize benefits from reduced   levels                                                       and non-participant surveys
    energy cost burden,             Share of monthly income going to energy bills has            Billing analysis using
    increasing availability for     decreased                                                    sample of low-income
    other priority spending needs                                                                customers
                                    Change in ability to meet other priority spending needs
    More efficient low-income       Number/share of buildings with energy efficiency             Energy intensity compared
    residential building stock      equipment installed within and outside of NYSERDA’s          with baseline or building
    and associated energy (kWh      programs and associated kW, kWh and therm savings            codes
    and therm) and permanent        Reduced energy/unit consumed                                 Persistence study on
    demand (kW) reduction                                                                        installed measures
                                    High level of energy-efficient technologies and building
                                    practices incorporated in new and existing buildings in      Billing analysis using
                                    the low-income sector                                        sample of low-income
                                                                                                 customers



6           RESEARCHABLE ISSUES
Based on this logic model assessment for NYSERDA’s low-income sector programs, a number of
researchable issues have been identified and are noted below. Some of these issues have been, or are
currently being investigated.
•           Has awareness and knowledge of NYSERDA’s low-income programs, energy efficiency
            opportunities and potential benefits increased as a result of the low-income programs?
•           Are the financial options and level of financial assistance offered by the programs effective?
•           Are services provided by trained auditors, contractors and consultants leading to increased
            installation of energy-efficient measures in low-income households?
•           Are the realized savings from the installed energy-efficient measures consistent with initial
            expectations?
•           Is participation in the programs by low-income residents and building owners increasing their
            knowledge about energy saving behaviors and measures? Is this leading to increased demand for
            energy efficiency products, services and housing?
•           Are suppliers, vendors and mid-stream market actors finding provision of efficiency options and
            services profitable through the programs? Is their support for and promotion of energy-efficient
            products, services and housing increasing over time and, if so, what are the reasons for this? What
            markets are they promoting to, the low-income market or other markets?




                                                                17
Revised Final Sector-Level Logic                             New York Energy $martSM Low-Income Portfolio
•       Have the programs resulted in changes in policies and practices at housing agencies?
•       Have energy efficiency factors become a standard part of investment decisions for financers,
        developers, and those in the business of rehabbing low-income properties? How important is
        energy efficiency relative to other factors influencing financial decisions?
•       Do market actors, participants, and trade allies actively promote NYSERDA’s low-income
        programs?
•       In the long run, what is required to sustain the energy efficiency market infrastructure and
        demand in the low-income sector in the absence of program incentives?
•       How much is the demand for these programs influenced by interest rates? That is, will the
        demand for program support increase substantially if interest rates increase?
•       Is the program resulting in a notable reduction in the energy burden for low-income households?
        Is it increasing their ability to meet other priority spending needs?
•       Is the energy efficiency market in the low-income housing sector large enough to sustain auditors
        and consultants in the long run?
•       How well do NYSERDA’s low-income programs operate with other regional and national low-
        income program efforts? With other NYSERDA programs?
•       To what extent are external influences impacting program accomplishments?
•       Will gas utility programs and an Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard reduce the effectiveness of
        NYSERDA’s low-income programs, due to direct competition from other energy efficiency
        providers and/or confusion among customers or agencies regarding the best ways to obtain
        energy efficiency?
Research addressing these questions will help to validate the reasonableness of the associated theories and
will help to inform NYSERDA program staff of progress and potential areas for program enhancement
and refinement.




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