GM Food and Feed in China Will Chinese Production by scu20129

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									GM Food and Feed in China: Will
 Chinese Production of GM Rice
     and Corn be Allowed?

      Carl E. Pray Rutgers/Berkeley
    Jikun Huang, Center for Chinese
        Agricultural Policy, Beijing
         Scott Rozelle, Stanford
              Yes, soon….
• In 2005 in Science we said GM rice would
  soon be approved. It is 4 years later and
  still no GM rice. Should anybody believe
  us now?
• Times have changed
  – Food prices
  – Research investments starting to pay off
  – Political changes
     Who Decides to Approve GM
              Crops?
• Officially the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA)
  decides on biotech agricultural products
   – Biosafety Regulatory entirely in MOA
      • It consults Ministry of Health and State Environmental
        Protection Agency
      • MOA has final say
• Ministry of Forestry decides on GM trees
• Top Leadership of Chinese Government – Prime
  Minister and State Council must decide approve
  decisions like GM food or not
    Status of Biotech in China
Approval for commercial cultivation
  – Production of GM Cotton, Tomatoes, and
    Peppers allowed since 1997 and 1998
  – Production of GM Poplar trees in 2005 and
    GM papaya allowed in 2006
Approved for consumption
  – GM corn, soybeans, and canola, and cotton
    seed oil allowed – tested and officially
    approved since 2004.
          Actual production
• 70% of cotton planted with single Bt gene
  or Bt and Cowpea Trypsin Inhibitor
• High percentages but small area of Bt
  tomatoes and Bt sweet peppers
• High percentage and small area of Bt
  papaya
• Very small area and percentage of Bt
  poplar
                                    Spread of Bt Cotton in China
                                    7000                                                       100
                                              Total   Bt cotton   Bt cotton share (%)
                                                                                               90
                                    6000
Area Bt & total cotton (1,000 ha)




                                                                                               80
                                    5000                                                       70




                                                                                                     Bt cotton share (%)
                                                                                               60
                                    4000
                                                                                               50
                                    3000
                                                                                               40

                                    2000                                                       30

                                                                                               20
                                    1000
                                                                                               10

                                       0                                                       0
                                           1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
      Economic impact so far
• Cotton – farmer benefits
  – Less pesticide use for bollworm – could be
    greater if linked with IPM
  – Higher yields
  – Less poisoning
• Little known about other traits and crops
  that have been approved so far – no
  studies
        Economic, Health, and
        Environmental Impacts
• Incomes of adopters up due to reduced pesticide
  use and higher yields
• Farmers report less poisoning because of the
  reduction in pesticide use
• Environmental impact – greater insect
  diversity,reduced pesticides in environment,
  reduced pest attacks in other crops
• Negative economic impacts – non-adoptering
  farmers got lower prices and pesticide
  companies lost profits
    Consumption of GM food -
          Soybeans
• China imports only small amounts of corn but is
  a major importer of oilseeds. Soybean oil
  – most popular cooking oil (47%)
  – 70% is imported – mainly from US, Brazil, and
    Argentina
  – All soybean oil has to be labeled as GM since 2005
• Virtually no consumer reaction – they do not
  need a price discount to buy it….
   Why no approval of GM food
          production?
• In the past few years, China did not have a deficit in
  grain and there was some concern that rising production
  could reduce prices and hurt farmers
• Did not approve some traits from multinationals because
  of strategic concerns about multinationals taking over the
  Chinese seed industry
• Hesitation by leadership of Ministry of Agriculture
   – Rice is so important in China that they are cautious.
   – No clear signals from the top political leadership
   – Potential political objections from public and consumers
   – Trade concerns (even though China does not export much food
     crops)
   – Don’t want to be first internationally on GM rice.
• Concerns over food safety and environmental impact of
  GM crops
       Has anything changed?
• Potential benefits from increased productivity
  appear to be higher
  – World food prices rise, Chinese government responds
    (Yang, Qiu, Huang, Rozelle 2008)
     • Chinese government decides to isolate Chinese consumers
       and producers from rise in world food prices
     • Release grain stocks from their strategic reserve
     • Prohibit exports of grain
     • Now grain needed to replenish stocks and resume exports
  – Benefits from Bt cotton large and well documented
  – Bt rice potential impact large - articles in
    Science(2005) and Economic Development and
    Cultural Change (2008
      Changes due to research and
             experience
•   Major investments in biotech research but no commercialization –
    an embarrassment to scientists and bureaucrats who supported it
    –they want to show results
    – Second biggest government biotech R&D investment in World after US
    – Only big impact is cotton released in 1997

•   Chinese biotech research starting to show results
    – Needed time to produce products that can compete with Multinationals
      – now Bt rice and high phytase maize are available
    – Producing traits that have not been commercialized elsewhere - need
      more biosafety research

•   Concerns about safety and reaction of consumers has been
    reduced
    – Extensive research on the safety of GM traits
    – Years of experience with labeled GM soybean oil with no problems and
      little consumer resistance
       Political leaders have recently
         made their position clear




“I strongly advocate making great efforts to pursue transgenic engineering. The recent food
    shortages around the world have further strengthened my belief [in developing such
    technologies]” Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao. Science, Vol 322, 17th October 2008,
    www.sciencemag.org
  $3.85 billion 13 year program to
commercialize GM traits starts 2008
– A national program jointly supervised by Ministries of Finance,
  Science & Tech, Agriculture, and National Development &
  Reform Com.
    • Center government pays 50% - research and some development
      money
        –   GM plant breeding (Major one – 2/3)
        –   Basic research (second in term of budget)
        –   Biosafety research (third)
        –   Commercialization (fourth..)
        –   Research to improve policies (fifth .. Very minor now.)
    • Provincial governments and public and private corporations pay the
      for commercialization and part of the downstream development
      research
– 5 major crops –rice, wheat, maize, cotton + just added soybean
– 3 livestock: pig, cow, sheep
Based on these changes we expect
  the Chinese government to start
 approving GM food for production
• Bt rice and high phytase maize developed
  by Chinese researchers will probably be
  first – recently approved by biosafety
  committee
• Political approval is the only thing required
  now..

								
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