Scanning the Future of Law Enforcement: A Trend Analysis by ProQuest


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									                             Law is
                  re of nalys
            Futu nd A
         the Tre
     ning nt: A
 can eme
                                       s ar se
  En          we apons
                       in a futuri
                                   st ’
                                                                                        By Eric Meade

                                  sen    tial                              ni   f ica
                          os t es                        ati   on of a sig                 To understand the potential futures
               he m                                xamin
        e of t
                                                                                        of crime and justice, one must ex-
   On                                  is — a   ne                                      plore a full range of issues, the con-
                    nd ana                                                  nses. In
                                                                                        nection of which to law enforcement

     is the     tre                                                 al le
                                                        d anal ytic
                                                                                        may at first seem tangential at best.

                                           h de   f ine                                 Our perspectives and behaviors rela-
                     n thr oug                                                          tive to crime and justice are informed
       ph    enomeno                                                                    by larger changes taking place

                                                                  Institute for
                                                                                        around us — socially, technologically,
                                            t of the
                        , the vice presiden
                                                                                        environmentally, economically, and
        th   is article                                                                 politically. Scanning the horizon for
                                                                                        trends and developments that may
                                                                                        influence the future of crime and jus-
       Alternative Futures applies this tool to trends                                  tice informs our strategies to create
                                                                                        the future we prefer. This exercise
                                                                                        also highlights how futures methods
  affecting law e                                                                       can yield insights into the decisions
                                 nforcement in th                                       we must make today.
                                                       e decades ahea
                                                                              d.           The trend analysis below, focusing
                                                                                        specifically on the United States, pro-
                                                                                        vides a base for understanding the
                                                                                        forces that may affect law enforce-
                                                                                        ment in the future. This will enable
  © 2010 World Future Society • 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450,                        us to better forecast probable out-
  Bethesda, MD 20814, U.S.A. • All rights reserved.                                     comes — and envision preferable
                                                                                        futures for society.

                                                                                        Social and Demographic Trends

                                                                                          There are several important demo-
                                                                                        graphic changes that will affect the

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