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Looking Back to Look Ahead


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									                                                 About this issue
A Publication of the World Future Society

            Editorial Staff
                                                 Looking Back to Look Ahead
              Edward Cornish
                     Editor                         In this issue, Gene Stephens, THE FUTURIST’s longtime con-
             Cynthia G. waGnEr                   tributing editor on criminal justice, reexamines the measures he
                Managing Editor
                                                 proposed a dozen years ago to improve the prospects for at-risk
               PatriCk tuCkEr
                                                 youth. To help him evaluate and update those earlier strategies,
                 Senior Editor
                                                 Stephens conducted a Delphi poll of experts.
       aaron M. CohEn, riCk doCksai
                  Staff Editors                     The first step in his Delphi poll was to assess the factors that have
                LanE JEnninGs                    the most impact on young people’s life prospects. Stephens reports,
               Research Director                 “The most critical factors, according to the group, are teenage preg-
                 Lisa Mathias                    nancy, child abuse, chronic truancy, drug and alcohol abuse, and
                  Art Director
                                                 crime and delinquency.” Next, the experts evaluated the approaches
         Contributing EditorS                    used to turn around the negative impacts of these factors. The single
         CLEMEnt BEzoLd, Government              most important strategy, the group concluded, was to improve par-
          tsvi Bisk, Strategic Thinking          enting education — that is, to teach young people the techniques of
          irvinG h. BuChEn, Training             good parenting before they actually become parents.
   PEtEr EdEr, Marketing and Communications         Since the risks to youth are different around the world, Stephens
   JoyCE Gioia-hErMan, Workforce/Workplace       offers ideas on how to improve prospects for children facing such
    BarBara Marx huBBard, Images of Man          dangers as abduction into the military or slavery. (See “Youth at Risk: A
  JosEPh P. Martino, Technological Forecasting   New Plan for Saving the World’s Most Precious Resource,” page 16.)
          Jay s. MEndELL, Innovation                Trend analysis is another vital futurist tool, as illustrated by
     JosEPh n. PELton, Telecommunications        Eric Meade in his article “Scanning the Future of Law Enforce-
      arthur B. shostak, Utopian Thought         ment” (page 22). Often the forces affecting us are complicated and
          david P. snydEr, Lifestyles            overlapping, so a trend analysis allows us to focus on a topic
        GEnE stEPhEns, Criminal Justice          through various lenses, such as technological, demographic, or
         tiMothy wiLLard, Biofutures             political components. In deploying this tec
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