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					Presentation overview
*   WTTC
*   Macro-Drivers for global economy
*   Travel & Tourism Growth
*   Global Trends
*   Implications for Travel & Tourism
                Founding Members
       Abercrombie & Kent
               Accor
         American Airlines
        American Express
             Avis, Inc.
        British Airways plc
Canadian Pacific Hotels Corporation
          Delta Air Lines
   East Japan Railway Company
               Hertz
               Iberia
   Regent International Hotels
     The Promus Companies
        Thrifty Rent-a-Car
          United Airlines
     Westin Hotels & Resorts
                     WTTC Purpose

To raise awareness of the importance of
Travel & Tourism and to work with
governments to realise the full potential of
the industry in creating sustainable wealth
and jobs.
Raising Awareness
      IND ÚSTR IA D E VIA GEM & TUR ISMO

      Hospitalidade, recreação, catering,
      diversão, transporte, e outros
      serviços relacionados
             WTTC
      ECONOMIA DE V IAGEM &
      TUR ISMO

          introduction
      Impre ssão, publicação, energia,
      ser viços f inanceir os,


          of Travel &
      forne cime nt o de equipamento,
      alimentos, segurança,
      administr ação, c onstr uç ão
      civil, construção naval,

            Tourism
      forne cime nt o de be bidas,
      fe rr o/aço, fabricação de
      aer onave s, madeira,

            Economy
      miner ação, produtos químicos,
      tê xte is, c ombustíveis, plást icos,
      ser viços de sane ame nto, f lores,

            Concept
      decorações , produt os
      me tálicos, com putadore s,
      arquit etos, dese nvolvime nto de
      re sort s, at acadist as, serviç os de
      lavander ia, informática.
    Headwinds for the world in 2008
                     Macro-Drivers
• Credit crunch continues to be a worry
  on outlook
• High oil prices may become a major
  constraint on growth
• US housing in trouble
• Weaker dollar
• China to record another year with 2-
  digit growth
              Robust global growth to
World: GDP growth          continue…
    % year
6                              Market exchange
                                                          Forecast
                                    rates
                 PPP
5              exchange
                 rates
4


3


2


1


0
 1996        1998      2000        2002     2004   2006     2008
    Source: Oxford Economics
    Robust global growth to continue…
GDP growth
% quarter annualised
8
                                                   Forecast

6


4


2


0


-2
  1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
    Source: Oxford Economics
                                Rapid Growth…oil price surge
                           Oil price
                           $/barrel
                           90

                           80                         Real
                                                (1995 US prices)
                           70

                           60

                           50

                           40

                           30

                           20
                                             Nominal
                           10                                                                   F'cast

                            0
                             1973     1977   1981    1985   1989   1993   1997   2001   2005   2009
                                Source: Oxford Economics



Explaining the Forecast: 1) Expectations of slower economic growth- dent demand for energy
                     2) Nominal prospects of increase in OPEC production (December Meeting)
      …buoyed by rising per capita incomes…

   Frequency of overseas trips and rising               Chinese outbound tourism market
                                               £ 000s
Number of trips percapita income                        Tourist mn                                        US$ bn
1.2                                                25   120                                                      120
                                                                     Outbound Chinese
1.1
                                                                     tourists (LHS)
 1                                                      100          Travel spend (RHS)                          100
                                                   20
0.9
0.8     GDP per capita                                   80                                                      80
0.7                                                15
0.6                                                      60                                                      60
0.5                                                10
0.4                                                      40                                                      40
0.3     Trips per heads
0.2
                                                   5     20                                                      20
0.1
 0                                                 0      0                                                      0
 1980         1985        1990   1995   2000    2005         2000 2001        2002   2003   2004   2005   2020
 Source : Oxford Economics                               Source : WTO
…& diversification strategies…
 Middle East's emergence as a destination
 2000=100
 180
 170
 160                   Visitor numbers -
 150                   Middle East

 140
 130
 120
 110
                                           Visitor numbers - Total
 100
  90
   2000     2001      2002      2003        2004      2005       2006
  Source : Oxford Economics
 Greater integration also boosting
                 business travel…
Global business travel
% year                                                   %
30          as % of total service      Forecast              8
            imports (RHS)
25                                                           7
                                                             6
20
                                                             5
15                       Growth
                         (LHS)                               4
10
                                                             3
 5
                                                             2
 0                                                           1
-5                                                           0
 1989    1993     1997       2001   2005   2009   2013   2017
 Source : Oxford Economics
      Travel & Tourism developments
                     in 2007-2017…
Industry direct TT GDP and economy as a whole
% y on y
4.5
                                    Total
                                    GDP
 4


3.5


 3                            TT industry
                              GDP
2.5


 2
 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
  Source : Oxford Economics
                               The major stories: the rise of
                                          the Middle East…

                                                   Tourism's share of investment & GDP in the Middle
Share of global overnight stays - Middle East
%                                                %                        East
6                                                12
                                                                                 Investment

5                                                11


4                                                10


3                                                 9
                                                                       GDP

2                                                 8


1                                                 7

0                                                 6
2000         2004           2008   2012   2016    2000          2004          2008            2012   2016
Source : Oxford Economics                         Source : Oxford Economics
         China’s growing role in Travel &
                               Tourism…
China's share of the global tourism economy
%
14
                                                 GDP
12

10

 8                                    Visitor exports (value)

 6

 4                             Overnight stays
 2

 0
 2000         2004          2008          2012            2016
Source : Oxford Economics
      Total Demand                                                      WORLD
      Personal T&T
    Business Travel                                                 2006 saw further
                                                                    broad-based strength in
Government Expend.
                                                                    the tourism economy.
  Capital Investment
                                                                    In 2007, growth is not
     Visitor Exports
                                                                    expected to be quite so
  T&T Industry GDP                                                  dynamic as in 2006 as
   Employment Ind.                                                  growth moves generally
   T&T Econ. GDP                                                    closer to the trend rates
 Employment Econ.                                                   embodied in the 10-
                                                                    year annualized
                       0   1   2       3      4         5   6   7
                                                                    forecast.
                                   Ten Year 2007 2006
TRAVEL & TOURISM ECONOMY GDP THE
           WORLD 2007                                                                     World Average
                                                Oceania     Caribbean
                        18%
                                                               North Africa Middle East
                                   European Union
2007 T&T Economy GDP




                        15%                                                        Southeast Asia
   (Percent of Total)




                                                                                   Northeast Asia
                        12%
                                    Other
                                   Western
                        9%         Europe                                             Central and
                                                                                    Eastern Europe

                        6%
                                    North America

                        3%              Latin America
                                                              Sub-Saharan Africa    South Asia

                        0%
                              0%             2%             4%              6%               8%
                                             T&T Economy GDP Growth 2008-2017
                                                    (Percent Annualized)
2007 – 2017
  WORLD
  Outlook for
the Middle East
                        TRAVEL & TOURISM ECONOMY GDP
                                    MIDDLE Economy GDP
                                   T&T EAST 2007                              average
                                                                             World Average


                        18%                               Middle East         Kuwait         5.8
                                                                              Bahrain        5.6
                                                                              Oman           5.3
2007 T&T Economy GDP




                        15%
                                                                              Saudi Arabia   5.2
   (Percent of Total)




                                                                              Lebanon        4.8
                                                                              Syria          4.7
                        12%
                                                                              Qatar
                                                                                             4.7
                                                                              Jordan         4.5
                        9%                                                    Iran           4.2
                                                                              UAE            3.5
                                                                              Yemen          1.6
                        6%

                        3%

                        0%
                              0%       2%            4%                 6%      8%
                                      T&T Economy GDP Growth 2008-2017
                                             (Percent Annualized)
      Total Demand                                            UAE
      Personal T&T                                      Expectations in 2007
   Business Travel                                    surpassed results from
                                                         2006 in all areas of
Government Expend.
                                                        tourism activities but
 Capital Investment                                    UAE has experienced
     Visitor Exports                                      major increase in
                                                             government
  T&T Industry GDP                                       expenditure, capital
   Employment Ind.                                     investment and visitor
    T&T Econ. GDP
                                                      exports. Forecasts for
                                                      next years will be more
  Employment Econ.                                             stable.
                       0   5       10     15    20   25

                               Ten Year 2007 2006
      Total Demand
                                                                 QATAR
      Personal T&T
   Business Travel                                            2007 exceeded all
Government Expend.                                              2006 results in
 Capital Investment
                                                                 most tourism
                                                                 activities with
     Visitor Exports                                           greatest increase
  T&T Industry GDP                                            in Business Travel
   Employment Ind.                                                 and capital
                                                                  investment.
    T&T Econ. GDP
  Employment Econ.

                       0   5       10     15        20   25

                               Ten Year 2007 2006
      Total Demand
                                                              JORDAN
      Personal T&T
                                                          Tourism activity has
    Business Travel
                                                            generally slowed
Government Expend.                                          down in 2007 but
                                                               government
  Capital Investment
                                                             expenditure has
     Visitor Exports                                      increased which will
                                                            develop Jordan’s
  T&T Industry GDP
                                                          Travel & Tourism at
   Employment Ind.                                             a stable and
     T&T Econ. GDP
                                                          consistent rate over
                                                           the next ten years.
  Employment Econ.

       -5              0          5             10   15

                           Ten Year 2007 2006
      Total Demand
      Personal T&T                                                 BAHRAIN
   Business Travel
                                                                2007 saw a marked
Government Expend.                                               increase in capital
 Capital Investment                                            investment. All other
                                                               tourism activities for
     Visitor Exports
                                                                 Bahrain surpassed
  T&T Industry GDP                                                   all growth
   Employment Ind.                                             expectation of 2006.
    T&T Econ. GDP
  Employment Econ.

                       0   10    20    30    40      50   60

                                Ten Year 2007 2006
      Total Demand
                                                             OMAN
      Personal T&T

    Business Travel                                           All tourism
Government Expend.
                                                            activities have
                                                          double in growth
  Capital Investment
                                                           in 2007 and the
     Visitor Exports                                         industry will
  T&T Industry GDP                                        remain stable and
                                                          strong for coming
   Employment Ind.
                                                                decade.
     T&T Econ. GDP

  Employment Econ.

         -5            0     5         10       15   20

                           Ten Year 2007 2006
         Top 5 Infrastructure Raking in
       Middle East (World Rank/ 124)

Rank   Air Transport      Road           Port
 1       UAE (7)        UAE (12)        UAE (9)
 2      Qatar (35)     Kuwait (27)    Bahrain (26)
 3     Bahrain (37)    Bahrain (29)    Qatar (42)
 4     Kuwait (47)     Jordan (33)    Kuwait (47)

 5      Jordan (48)     Qatar (48)    Jordan (49)
                          Summary global view
Despite increased downside risks, it remains likely that
         the slowdown in world GDP growth will be
         limited because:

   - rapidly expanding emerging economies
        - these countries are recognizing the
        development         potential of the T&T
        industry and investing             accordingly
        - Rapid economic growth boosting incomes and
        creating an entire new range of customers
        where international travel is now an option
   - the easing in monetary policy by central banks
   - strong corporate profitability outside of the
        financial sector
        Implications for the Travel &
                    Tourism Industry
• Deteriorating economic conditions, particularly
  in the housing and credit markets across the
  globe, increasing concerns about prospects for
  the travel & tourism industry in 2008
• But the global slowdown is likely to be limited
  with a contained impact on the industry
• US dollar’s weakness is curtailing the travel
  plans of residents of dollar-bloc countries but
  boosting their inbound tourism
• Higher energy prices are a two-pronged
  challenge – they squeeze household budgets
  and raise the cost of a key input for the
  industry
Direction of forecast revisions
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