The impacts of hourly variations of large scale wind by bxx50515

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									The impacts of hourly variations of large scale
wind power production in the Nordic countries
       on the system regulation needs
                 Hannele Holttinen
                                                                                       2

VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND




                                           Contents


        Wind power production in the Nordic countries:
           –    Variations, smoothing of the variations when geographically
                distributed generation. Correlation of wind power production


        Wind power production versus load:
           –    Wind power production during peak load hours
           –    Variations of geographically distributed wind power production
                compared to load variations.
           –    What is the effect of large scale wind production on the electricity
                system? How much wind before more flexibility is needed in the
                system? How much more flexibility (reserves, transmission, DSM)
                when wind power increases?



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                    Large scale production of wind power
                                                              Fluctuating power production
        7000                           Demand (MW)
                                       Wind MW                   –   min-hours-days-months-years
        6000                                                     –   average production of 100 MW,
                                                                     varies between 0…400 MW
        5000
                                                              Many scattered wind parks
        4000                                                     –   smoothing out the variations
                                                                     when large geographical
   MW




        3000                                                         distribution

        2000
                                                              Production 2…40 hours ahead
                                                               can be forecasted
        1000                                                     –   for scheduling and exchange
                                                                     (market)
          0
               1   169        337         505        673         –   forecasting errors (regulating
                         Hour (january 2000)                         market)
                                                              In-hour variations have to be
                                                               absorbed by the system

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                                        How much wind power can electricity system absorb?
                                             => How much does the integration cost?
                                                                   The extra costs of integration depend
                                                                   –
            Costs of integration wind power in the system          on wind penetration
                                                                      – X % without extra costs,
                                                                        variations of load will absorb the
  The costs of integrating wind power




                                                                        variations of wind.
                                                                      – XX % with prediction tools,
             in the system




                                                                        changes in scheduling, changes
                                                                        in transmission (export/import)
                                                                      – > YY % with increasing extra
                                                                        costs for integration
                                                                 – The extra costs of integration depend
                                                                   on electricity system
       0       5          10         15          20       25  30      – the amount of flexibility in the
          The amount of wind power in the system (% of yearly
                               consumption)
                                                                        system and the cost of
                                                                        increasing it
Cost of wind power integration - the shape of the curve                 (reserves/transmission/DSM)


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          Interconnected Nordic market area. Data for 1999…2001

                                                         Hourly electricity consumption
                                         Finm
                                                            –   Finland, Sweden, Norway,
                                  Tro                           Denmark East and West
                                                         Hourly wind power production:
                                   N.                       –   Finland: 54 turbines, 21 sites (10
                                   SWE
                        Hel
                                                                areas scaled to 100 MW each).
                                                            –   Sweden: 13 turbines, 4 sites (3
                N-M
                                                FIN
                                                                areas scaled to 100 MW each).
          V-M
                                                            –   Denmark: real production of
                                                                1800…2300 MW in year 2000,
                Ø-L
  V-S                                                           East and West total wind
                            S.                                  production.
                            SWE
    S-L
                                                            –   Norway: so far only one site
                                                            –   Geographically well dispersed for
    W.DK                                                        Denmark and Finland
           E.DK
                                                            –   Only 4 sites in Sweden, upscaling
                  Central                                       will overestimate variations
                  Europe

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                          Large scale production of wind power (1)
                    Denmark January 2000, ~2 GW wind                     Finland January 2000, 4 GW wind (8,2 TWh/a)
                                                    Load                                                       Load
         7000                                       Total wind        14000                                    Total wind
                                                                                                               One wind park
         6000                                                         12000

         5000                                                         10000

         4000                                                         8000




                                                                 MW
    MW




         3000                                                         6000


         2000                                                         4000


         1000                                                         2000


            0                                                             0
                1         169       337       505         673                 1     169       337        505       673
                                      hour                                                      Hour


–   Consumption and wind power production in January 2000: Denmark is real data
    (~12% wind), for Finland and Sweden data from wind parks is scaled up to about 10 %
    of yearly electricity consumption from wind.
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                       Large scale production of wind power (2)

         Sweden January 2000, 8 GW wind (16 TWh/a)                  January 2000, DK-SE-Fi à 4000 MW (25 TWh/a)
     28000                                                       45000

     24000                                                       40000

                                                                 35000
     20000
                                                                 30000
     16000                                                       25000
MW




                                                            MW
                                               Load                                                          Load
     12000                                                       20000
                                               Total wind                                                    Wind
                                                                 15000
      8000                                     One wind
                                               park              10000
      4000                                                        5000

         0                                                           0
             1      169       337       505          673                 1     169       337       505      673
                                hour                                                       hour


–    January 2000 data: Finland, one wind park average power ~1500 MW varies between
     0…4000 MW, for total wind average 1500 MW, 30…3500 MW. For 3 Nordic countries:
     average 4500 MW, 200...9800 MW.
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                                            Correlations inside a country

      Sweden:
         –         2 sites in Gotland, correlation 0.8
         –         Gotland vs Southern Sweden: correlation 0.5…0.7
      Finland:
                                      Correlation of hourly wind production in Finland, 1999

                           1.00

                           0.80
             correlation




                           0.60

                           0.40

                           0.20

                           0.00
                                  0       100       200       300       400       500          600   700
                                                              distance (km)

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                           Wind data for countries - statistics

YEAR 2000                Finland 1000 MW Sweden 1000 MW Denmark ~1000MW      Nordic 1000 MW    One wind farm scaled to 1
Correlation to Finland 2000 MW         1,00
Correlation to Sweden 2000 MW          0,46          1,00
Correlation to Denmark MW 2000         0,32          0,76             1,00
Average production MW                   235           240              242               239                  232
Minimum hourly value                      1             0                0                 5                    0
Maximum hourly value                    901           939            1025                873                 1023
Standard Deviation                      183           219              220               172                  261


      –   Correlation of wind data: If wind production data is not correlated, there can be
          strong winds in one place at the same time as weaker in another, and together the
          time series will be smoother. The Finnish and Norwegian wind production is only
          weakly correlated to that in South-Sweden and Denmark. The winds in South-
          Sweden and Denmark are correlated.
      –   Descriptive statistics: The average, maximum and minimum production of wind
          power production scaled to 1000 MW from Finland/Sweden/Denmark and the whole
          of the 3 countries are seen. The standard deviation tells about the variability of the
          hourly time series. As a comparison, data from one wind farm scaled up to 1000 MW
          is shown.
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                            Duration curves year 2000 Finland

                                                                              Wind % cap
                         100 %                                                                         12000
                                                                              Pori wind farm 8 MW
                          90 %                                                                         10800
                                                                              Demand (MW)
                          80 %                                                                         9600
wind % of capacity




                          70 %                                                                         8400                         Duration:




                                                                                                               Load (MW)
                          60 %                                                                         7200
                          50 %                                                                         6000
                          40 %                                                                         4800
                          30 %                                                                         3600                        Wind / Load
                          20 %                                                                         2400
                          10 %                                                                         1200
                                                                                                                               One wind farm / Total
                           0%                                                                          0                       production of 21 sites
                                 1       721 1441 2161 2881 3601 4321 5041 5761 6481 7201 7921 8641
                                                                 Hour

                                                                               Summer: Wind % cap
                            Duration curves year 2000 Finland
                                                                               Winter: Wind % cap
                                                                               Summer: Load (MW)
                         100 %                                                                             12000
                                                                               Winter: Load (MW)
                          90 %                                                                             10800
                          80 %                                                                             9600
    wind % of capacity




                          70 %                                                                             8400                    Wind / Load



                                                                                                                   Load (MW)
                          60 %                                                                             7200
                          50 %                                                                             6000
                                                                                                                                 Winter / summer
                          40 %                                                                             4800
                          30 %                                                                             3600
                          20 %                                                                             2400
                          10 %                                                                             1200
                           0%                                                                              0
                                     1         721      1441     2161      2881       3601          4321
                                                                  Hour
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                Wind power production during peak load hours
                       Finland, Sweden and Denmark
                     The        During         During   During
                    whole                     50 peaks 100 peaks
                    year
                           10 peaks
                                                                        Wind power production during
                   Average Average            Average      Average
                   min-max min-max            min-max      min-max      the 10, 50 and 100 highest
     Denmark           24.2 %        24.7 %       30.4 %       32.9 %   peak load hours compared to
     2000          0.0-93.2 %    0.7-71.1 %   0.5-90.6 %   0.4-90.6 %   the average production.
     Denmark           20.4 %        36.8 %       30.6 %       27.6 %
     2001          0.0-91.2 %    0.2-74.1 %   0.1-88.2 %   0.0-88.2 %   All numbers:
     Finland           22.1 %         6.9 %        7.1 %        8.5 %   wind power production as % of
     1999          0.0-88.6 %    4.7-10.2 %   2.8-36.9 %   2.2-45.9 %
                                                                        installed capacity (nameplate
     Finland           23.5 %        34.4 %       29.6 %       26.8 %
                   0.1-90.1 %    4.0-71.8 %   2.9-71.8 %   2.9-71.8 %   capacity). Hourly maximum
     2000
     S.Sweden          24.7 %        22.8 %       20.3 %       21.0 %   and minimum values also
     1999          0.0-100 %    15.8-29.2%    1.9-62.8 %   0.8-66.2 %   shown.
     S.Sweden          24.0 %        14.7 %       15.0 %       15.3 %
     2000          0.0-93.9 %    2.8-52.4 %   0.5-60.7 %   0.1-74.8 %
     FI+SE+DK          23.9 %        13.0 %       15.4 %       19.9 %
     2000          0.5-87.3 %    4.8-46.5 %   2.0-50.9 %   1.3-75.8 %

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            Wind power production during 10 highest peak load
                 hours in Finland. Years 1999 and 2000.
Finsk tid!         Load      Wind % cap            Finsk tid!           Load    Wind % cap
Fre 29.01.1999 09:00 13083.0    8.19 %             Tii 25.01.2000 08:00    11829 30.98 %
Fre 29.01.1999 18:00 13022.0    6.19 %             Tii 25.01.2000 07:00    11724 27.91 %
To 28.01.1999 18:00 12964.0     6.55 %             Per 21.01.2000 17:00 11652 65.70 %
To 28.01.1999 20:00 12936.0     6.92 %             Maa 24.01.2000 22:00 11642      7.48 %
Fre 29.01.1999 11:00 12935.0    4.80 %             Tii 25.01.2000 09:00    11632 29.45 %
To 28.01.1999 19:00 12923.0     6.87 %             Per 21.01.2000 08:00 11628 71.75 %
To 28.01.1999 23:00 12915.0 10.17 %                Per 21.01.2000 18:00 11602 58.59 %
Fre 29.01.1999 08:00 12915.0    8.71 %             Tii 25.01.2000 10:00    11597 34.88 %
Fre 29.01.1999 19:00 12914.0    6.24 %             Maa 24.01.2000 08:00 11552      3.98 %
Fre 29.01.1999 12:00 12853.0    4.72 %             Tii 25.01.2000 17:00    11532 12.81 %


       January 1999 had lower wind speeds than average (production index 71 %).
       January 2000 had higher wind speeds than average (production index 112 %).
        (Production index= calculated production of selected sites compared to average production
        in January of 11 years 1985…1995. Finnish Meteorological Institute.)

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                             Wind in the system: net load = load - wind
             Finland - load and upscaled wind power data from January 2000            Denmark - load and wind power data from January 2000
         14000                                                                       7000

         12000                                                                       6000

         10000                                                                       5000

         8000                                                                        4000




                                                                                MW
    MW




         6000                                                                        3000


         4000                                                                        2000

                                                       Load                          1000                                         Load
         2000                                                                                                                     Load - Wind
                                                       Load - Wind (4000 MW)
                                                                                       0
               0
                                                                                            1       169         337         505          673
             01.01.2000   08.01.2000    15.01.2000   22.01.2000    29.01.2000
                                              Time                                                                Hour




            Large scale wind power production changes the scheduling of the
             rest of the production system
            Load pattern well known and studied - prediction models for wind
             power needed, research still going on
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                                                         Variations of large scale wind power production


                                                           Hourly variations of wind production.                                             In one country
                                                         Duration curve for one year (8760 hours).                                              –   the maximum hourly
                                                 20 %
                                                                                                                                                    variation is less than 20 %
    Hourly variation (% of installed capacity)




                                                                                                      Eltra 2001 (~1900 MW)
                                                 15 %                                                                                               of capacity
                                                 10 %                                                 Finland 2000 (34 MW)
                                                                                                                                                –   the hourly variations are
                                                  5%                                                                                                larger than 5 % of capacity
                                                  0%                                                                                                during 7-9 % of time
                                                             741
                                                                   1481
                                                                          2221
                                                                                 2961
                                                                                        3701
                                                                                               4441
                                                                                                       5181
                                                                                                              5921
                                                                                                                     6661
                                                                                                                            7401
                                                                                                                                   8141
                                                         1




                                                  -5 %
                                                                                                                                             In Nordic countries
                                                 -10 %
                                                                                                                                                –   the maximum hourly
                                                 -15 %
                                                                                                                                                    variation is less than 10 %
                                                 -20 %                                                                                              of capacity
                                                                                                                                                –   the hourly variations are
                                                                                                                                                    larger than 5 % of capacity
                                                                                                                                                    less than 4 % of time.


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                                                   Variations of large scale wind power production

                                            Hourly variations of wind production in Finland year 2000 -        12 h variations:
                                                                      duration
                                                                                                                  –   max ± 95 % of nameplate
                                        70 %                                                                          capacity (Germany, ISET)
change in production (% of capacity)




                                        60 %                                           Finland 30.125 MW
                                                                                       Olos 3 MW
                                                                                                                  –   max ± 84..92 % of capacity
                                        50 %
                                        40 %                                           Pori 8 MW                      (Finland)
                                        30 %                                           Olos 10 min data        Hourly variations:
                                        20 %
                                        10 %                                                                      –   max ± 20 % of nameplate
                                         0%                                                                           capacity (Germany,
                                       -10 %0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 %          70 % 80 % 90 % 100             Denmark, Finland)
                                       -20 %                                                           %
                                       -30 %                                                                   15 min variations:
                                       -40 %
                                                                                                                  –   8.4 % of of nameplate
                                       -50 %
                                       -60 %                                                                          capacity 6 times per month,
                                       -70 %                                                                          max 11 % (Denmark)
                                                                        % of time




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                                              Year 2000 Finland
                                                                                        Demand (MW)
       14000                                                                            Wind 4000 MW (8,2 TWh)
       12000
       10000
       8000
  MW




       6000
       4000
       2000
          0
               1   721 1441 2161 2881 3601 4321 5041 5761 6481 7201 7921 8641
                                                               Hour

               Finland year 2000 - hourly variations with 4000 MW wind
                                                                          Hourly variation -net load
       1500                                                               Hourly variation -load

       1000

         500
  MW




           0
                         1125
                                1687
                                       2249
                                              2811
                                                     3373
                                                            3935
                                                                   4497
                                                                          5059
                                                                                 5621
                                                                                         6183
                                                                                                6745
                                                                                                       7307
                                                                                                              7869
                                                                                                                     8431
                   563
               1




        -500

       -1000

       -1500
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                   Hourly variations together with load variations Effect to max
Hourly           Wind increase       Wind decrease                                Load increase          Load decrease          variations if 10 % of
variations:      max % of cap         max % cap                                     max MW                 max MW                energy wind, MW
Finland              16 %                -17 %                                        1150                    -990                      200
Sweden               32 %                -27 %                                        3230                   -2050                      400
Denmark              18 %                -20 %                                        1140                    -850                       50
FI+SE+DK             13 %                -13 %                                        4750                   -3000                        0



     The need for regulating power in                                        Increase in max hourly variations caused by wind, year 2000 data
      the system increases if wind                                            1100




                                               change in max variation (MW)
                                                                                                                        Finland change in net load decrease
      production causes larger                                                1000                                      Finland change in net load increase
                                                                                                                        Sweden change in net load decrease
      variations to the system than the                                        900                                      Sweden change in net load increase
                                                                               800                                      DK change in net load decrease
      variations in load today. The                                                                                     DK change in net load increase
      short term variations were                                               700
                                                                               600
      studied by hourly time series.                                           500
     This is a preliminary result based                                       400
      on only year 2000 data.                                                  300
      Denmark: relatively greater load                                         200
                                                                               100
      variations absorb the wind                                                 0
      variations. Sweden: data from 4                                         -1000 %           10 %           20 %            30 %            40 %
      sites is not representative when
                                                                                                       wind % of consumption
      scaled up.

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                                            Hourly variations of wind vs variations of load
                             Eltra duration of hourly variations year 2000, wind 1350-1800 MW                                        Finland duration of hourly variations year 2000, wind 4000 MW
                                                                                                                                   1200                                                load increasing
                         1200                                                  load increasing                                                                                         load decreasing
                                                                               load decreasing                                      900                                                net load increasing
                          900
                                                                               net load increasing                                                                                     net load decreasing
                                                                                                                                    600                                                w ind increasing
hourly variations (MW)




                          600                                                  net load decreasing
                                                                                                                                                                                       w ind decreasing




                                                                                                       hourly va ria tion s (MW)
                                                                               wind increasing
                                                                                                                                    300
                          300                                                  wind decreasing
                                                                                                                                      0
                             0
                                                                                                                                           0%       5%         10 %        15 %        20 %              25 %
                              0%          5%          10 %         15 %         20 %            25 %
                                                                                                                                    -300
                          -300

                          -600                                                                                                      -600


                          -900                                                                                                      -900


                         -1200                                                                                                     -1200
                                                          % of time                                                                                                % of time


                                   –   Large amount of turbines in small geographic area (Eltra)
                                   –   Larger geographic area with a small number of turbines (Finland), data
                                       upscaled to make 10 % energy penetration
                                   –   Wind has considerably less effect on net load variations when using real
                                       data with large amount of turbines and when initial load variations large
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          Conclusions from first results of hourly data analysis


        An effort to estimate the increase in regulation needs for large
         scale wind power production:
           –    Comparing the hourly load variations without wind to the variations
                after large scale wind production: hourly variations of net load vs load
           –    Wind production data upscaled --> over estimate the variations
           –    Only 1-2 years of data for each country, Norway still missing
        Result: 10 % of wind would increase the need of flexibility by 200
         MW in Finland, 50 MW in Denmark, 0 MW in the Nordic area
           –    This applies if no bottlenecks of transmission
           –    In Denmark much less effect of wind to net load variations, because
                wind is well dispersed, production all over Denmark and because in
                Denmark load variations are considerably higher than in Sweden and
                Finland

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                                           Future work


      More data:
         –   Norway, Denmark offshore wind power data 15.5.1999…14.5.2000
      Probabilistic method of combining the variations of wind and load
      More statistical analyses:
         –   persistence of production, duration of calms, diurnal distribution of
             variations (load-wind-net load)
      Comparisons with other weather related production forms:
         –   CHP: heat load, temperature correlation of wind.
         –   Hydro and solar power
      Longer term variations of wind (4-12-24-36 hours):
         –   wind power in the electricity market, performance of prediction methods



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