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					   Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment:
   What Is Driving Arctic Marine Use??
Opening the Arctic Seas: Envisioning Disasters & Framing Solutions
     New England Center, UNH ~ Coastal Response Research Center
                          18 March 2008




                           Lawson W. Brigham, PhD
                      Vice Chair, PAME & Chair, AMSA
                U.S. Arctic Research Commission ~ Anchorage
11 September 2007
1 January 2007   1 March 2007




 1 April 2007    1 June 2007
Arctic Ocean   180
Bathymetric
   Chart




               NP
  90 W               90 E




                      ~ 1500 nm
                      ~ 600 nm


                0
                       Choke
                       Point

CHALLENGES
  & RISKS
                                       Draft
Northwest              Central
Passage                Arctic
                       Ocean               Northern
               Sea
               Ice     Route               Sea Route
  Draft
                         Sea Ice




                        Cold Climate
                     Ice-Free Ops
                                        MULTIPLE
                                        ROUTES &
Intra-Arctic                             MODES
Route
                    Arctic Marine Shipping
                Assessment (AMSA) Key Points
              • AMSA Natural Follow-on to:
                - Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA)
                - Arctic Marine Strategic Plan (AMSP)

              • Circumpolar, yet Regional and Local Focus
www.amap.no
              • Use Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs) Concept

              • Global Maritime Industry ~ Many Non-Arctic Actors

              • Marine Safety & Marine Environmental Protection

              • AMSA Leads ~ Canada, Finland & USA

              • Member State Commitment & Support with
www.pame.is     Data Collection Effort (to Senior Arctic Officials)
Sea Ice
•   Extent
    decrease
                                                16
    is largest
                                                15
    during
    summer       Sea Ice Extent (million km2)   14
                                                13
                                                12
•
                                                 Sea Ice Extent (million km2)
    Extent
                                                11
    decrease
                                                10
    is largest
                                                       9
    since
                                                       8
    late 1980s
                                                       7
                                                       6
•   Extent                                             5
    seasonal                                           4
    decreases
                                                       3
    since
                                                       2
    1950s
                                                       1
                                                       0



                                                Chapman & Walsh (2007)
        Timeless Arctic
        Marine Transport




Arctic Marine Vessel Activity ~ AMSA Ship Types
                  Tankers ~ Bulk Carriers
         Container Ships ~Tug-Barge Combinations
Fishing Vessels ~ Ferries ~ Passenger Vessels/Cruise Ships
        Research Vessels ~ Offshore Supply Vessels
     Icebreakers (Government & Commercial) ~ Others
 The Maritime
                                 High Intensity
Arctic of Today                     Fishing
  Snapshot of
 Summer 2004                         Red Dog
    Traffic                          Mine ~20

 Modes of Arctic
                                                                           0 NSR
Marine Transport                                                           Transits
• Destinational /                                   6 Research
   Regional           107                              Ships
• Trans-Arctic        Voyages
                                                                        165 Voyages
• Trans-Arctic with   5 NWP                                3-Ship       52 Ships
  Transshipment       Transits                        8 NP Drilling
• Intra-Arctic                                                             Noril’sk
                                                                           Complex




                                  27 Cruise Ships
                                  (53~2005)
                                  (150~2006)

                                                                        Thousands
                                                                        of Transits
                                                       High Intensity
                                                          Fishing
          Icebreaker Transits to the North Pole &
           Trans-Arctic Voyages (1977-2007):
• 72 Transits to the North Pole   • 28 Ship Transits to the NP in 2004-2007
 (60 Russia, 5 Sweden, 3 USA,
 2 Germany, 1 Canada, 1 Norway)   • 7 Trans-Arctic Voyages (1991, 1994,
                                    1996, 2005)
• Single Non-summer NP Voyage
  (Sibir Voyage May-June 1987)




                                                      25 May 1987
                                             Soviet Nuclear Icebreaker Sibir
                                              ‘A Walk Around the World!’
        20 Key AMSA Uncertainties
                                      China and Japan become Arctic
        Stable legal climate
                                             maritime nations
  Radical change in global trade
                                                 Transit fees
             dynamics
                                       Conflict between indigenous &
      Climate change is more
                                              commercial use
        disruptive sooner
                                       Arctic enforcers (police force)
       Safety of other routes
                                        Escalation of Arctic maritime
Socio-economic impact of global
                                                  disputes
         weather changes
                                           Shift to nuclear energy
Oil prices (55-60 to 100-150 USD?)
                                          New resource discovery
Major Arctic shipping disasters**
                                            World trade patterns
  Limited windows of operation
           (economics)                  Catastrophic loss of Suez or
                                              Panama Canals
 New Ice Age ~ Atlantic Changes
                                           Global agreements on
   Maritime Insurance Industry
                                     construction rules and standards.
“Stricken cruise ship off Antarctica
     evacuated” MSNBC- 11/23/07
                 Scenarios on the Future of
              Arctic Marine Navigation in 2050
                                                     more demand
                   Arctic Race                                           Arctic Saga
     High demand and unstable                                         High demand and stable




                                                          & TRADE
     governance set the stage for                                     governance lead to a healthy
     a “no holds barred” rush for                                     rate of development, includes
     Arctic wealth and resources.                                     concern for preservation of
                                                                      Arctic ecosystems & cultures.

             unstable                                                                  stable &
             & ad-hoc                               GOVERNANCE                       rules-based


                  Polar Lows                              RESOURCES    Polar Preserve
      Low demand and unstable                                     Low demand & stable
      governance bring a murky                                    governance slow development
      and under-developed future                                  in the region while introducing
      for the Arctic.                                             an extensive eco-preserve with
                                                                  stringent “no-shipping zones”.
AMSA/GBN Scenarios Workshops ~ April & July 2007
                                                      less demand
   The Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in 2050
AMSA Regional Case Studies ~ 2020
                               Year- round
                               Navigation
Russian Arctic ~ NSR
     Linkages

Distance (Nautical Miles)
Hamburg to Yokohama

Northern Sea Route ~ 6,920
Suez Canal ~ 11,073
Panama Canal ~ 12,420
                                   Suez
Cape of Good Hope ~ 14,542         Canal




Pipelines vs. Arctic Tankers

                                             Strait of Malacca
                                                                 INSROP (1999)
           Potential AMSA Findings
 Primary Driver ~ Regional & Global Natural Resource Development
       Lack of Integrated Governance-Regulatory Framework
           Continued Sea Ice Retreat ~ Increased Access
                Winter Arctic Sea Ice Cover Remains
   New Ship Technologies ~ Allow Greater Access & Independent
                       Operations (No Convoys)
            Global Maritime Industry ~ Key Stakeholders
 Minimal Arctic Infrastructure to Support Expanded Marine Activity
                   & Provide Adequate Safety Net
    Sectors: Oil & Gas, Hard Minerals, Tourism, Fishing & Water
               Greatly Enhanced Monitoring Required
Intense Development ~ NW Russia & Norwegian-Barents-Kara Seas
Balance ~ Freedom of Navigation with Coastal State Marine Safety &
                   Environmental Protection Interests
                    Lack of Experienced Mariners
 The Maritime Arctic of the Future?
                        Fishing




                      Summer
             ?         2025 ?

NWP?
                    Summer            Tourism?
                    2040 ?


 Summer
  2030 ?

                                  2007 to
                                  2030+
       ++ Tourism
                    Fishing

                                         Improving
                                       Coastal Access
              AMSA Final Report Structure
                           Chapter Outline
Chapters
 1: Introduction & Geography (US)
 2: History of Arctic Marine Transport & Governance (US, CAN)
       ‘Governance Team’ Ocean Policy Experts from Dalhousie U.
        Review of Arctic Marine Technology (Finland)
 3: AMSA Marine Activity Data, Sea Ice & Accidents (2004) (CAN)
        2004 Snapshot Survey ~ All Ship Types
 4: The Human Dimension: Town Hall Meetings & Impacts (US & DEN)
        Town Hall Meetings in Canada, Iceland, Norway, US
           More Planned in Canada, US, Greenland, Norway
           Survey in the Russian Arctic (RAIPON)
           Social & Economic Impacts
           Current Marine Uses ~ Arctic Communities
5: Scenarios & Futures (2020/2050) (US)
         Scenarios Workshops San Francisco (4/07) & Helsinki (7/07)
         Drafting Scenario Narratives (Stories)
         3 Regional (2020) Case Studies : Bering Strait, Canadian Arctic,
                   Barents Region
6: Environmental Impacts ~ Current & Future (NOR, RU)
         Scenarios Workshop & Arctic Ship Emissions Workshop
7: Arctic Marine Infrastructure & Anticipated Needs (US, Iceland, EPPR)
        Infrastructure ~ SAR, Ports, Monitoring, Incident Response, Sea
               Ice Forecasts, Charting, Aids to Navigation, Vessel Traffic
               Systems, Oil Spills in Ice, & More
        Baltic Case Study Underway (Finland)
        Arctic Incidents Workshop ~ 18-20 MAR 08 (US-NOAA) ******
8: Findings of the Assessment (All Authors)
AMSA Research Agenda, Appendices
 Arctic Marine Shipping
 Assessment Timeline                              NOV          SPRING
        2008-2009                               Chap 4~     AC Ministerial
                                JUN             Human     Recommendations
                                               Dimension & Findings: PAME
    JAN                      PAME &             Chap 6~       to SAOs
                              AMSA
   Arctic     MAR                             Env Impacts
                             Meetings
  Frontiers   UNH           Governance    Chap                 2009
 Chap 6 Env   Arctic        Discussion    2,3,5
  Impacts   Incidents
 Workshop Workshop

2008                             *                         DEC/JAN
                                              AUG             AMSA
     *            APR           MAY           Chap 7
                                                           Findings to
                                                              PAME
                  Proposed    Regional    Infrastructure
  NOV        Indigenous Marine Case
               Use Workshop    Studies
  AMSA
 Ottawa
Chap 6 & 7              *Continuing: AMSA Town Hall Meetings
Workshops                                JAN 08 - MAY 08              1/4/08
  Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
Climate model projections of sea ice extent:
               2000 - 2100

        March                           September

                         MAR                            SEPT



                                     Possible ~ Ice-Free
                                     Arctic Ocean in 2050

  Plenty of Winter Sea
  Ice Remains!!




             B2 IPCC Moderate Global Scenario
‘Wild Card’ Issue 1 ~ Multiple Ocean Use
      Management & Enforcement
 Bowhead Whale Migrations & Arctic Marine Operations


                                                       Summer
                                            Spring
                                     Fall



                                      Arctic Ocean
                                      Choke Point



         Winter

   Possible Arctic Shipping Routes
          ‘Wild Card’ Issue 2 ~ Arctic Ship Emissions
                   & Uncertain Regulation
                                         New northern
                                         passages could
                                         significantly boost
                                         levels of low-lying
                                         ozone as ship
                                         exhausts pump
                                         pollutants into the
                                         pristine environment.

                                         Emissions of nitrogen
                                         oxides and carbon
                                         monoxide from ships
                                         could triple ozone
                                         levels, making them
                                         comparable to those in
                                         industrialized regions
                                         today.

New Scientist
22 July 2006
         Today’s Maritime Arctic
         (200 NM Exclusive Economic Zone)


NM EEZ




                                            (Macnab 2000)
          ‘Wild Card’ Issue 3A
          ‘Wild Card’ Issue 4 ~ Technology
Future Convoy Requirements?




          Icebreaking (Double Acting) Container Ship
                Norilskiy Nickel in the Kara Sea
                          March 2006
Aker Arctic
Technology
Aker Arctic Technology

				
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